WEEKLY SUMMARY

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12 June 1964 771 OCI Noe 0335/64 Copy NO.: State Dept. review completed CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET (Information as of 1200 EDT, 11 June 1964) THE COMMUNIST WORLD Page MOSCOW INTENSIFIES EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT PEIPING'S POLICIES 1 Soviet leaders seem to believe that by building a con- vincing public record of Chinese intransigence and ob- structionism they can eventually overcome opposition in many foreign parties to a world Communist conference. NEW EVIDENCE OF SOVIET-YUGOSLAV MILITARY COLLABORATION 2 Yugoslavia reportedly will soon buy "liberal quantities" of Soviet military equipment. Yugoslav officials deny that these purchases signify agreement on matters other than procurement. THE CULT OF MAO TSE-TUNG INTENSIFIES While reverence for Mao's works is not new in China, this year's campaign goes to unprecedented lengths and brings the cult of his personality close to the syco- phancy around Stalin during his last years. THE LAOS SITUATION Neutralist military forces suffered setbacks this week, and elements of all three Laotian factions are criti- cizing Souvanna's performance as premier. Meanwhile, diplomatic maneuvering over Laos centers on the question of a proper forum for international negotiations. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page i Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 ,SL+ GME 1 ' ASIA-AFRICA (continued) Page NEW POLITICAL TURMOIL IN SOUTH KOREA 6 President Pak Chong-hui has promised to clean up the government and is easing martial law restrictions, but he faces a potentially dangerous behind-the-scenes power struggle. INDIA'S NEW CABINET UNDER SHASTRI The key portfolios of defense, home, and finance remain with the incumbents. A select inner cabinet will probably make most major decisions. PROSPECT OF NEW SOVIET AID TO IRAQ Current talks probably will lead to a major new arms deal, and Moscow may also offer to participate in new economic aid projects. No appreciable improvement in political relations is likely, however. ELECTION NOTE On Turkey TURKISH INTERVENTION ON CYPRUS DEFERRED Turkish troops, however, are still ready to invade--a posture the Greek Cypriots have been citing as cause for an urgent UN Security Council meeting. On Cyprus, both sides are maneuvering for strategic advantage. GENERAL STRIKE AGITATES NIGERIA The strike has put new strains on the federal government coalition, whose members are already at odds over last year's controversial census. TENSE SECURITY SITUATION AND POLITICAL TURBULENCE IN CONGO 11 Politicians in Leopoldville are maneuvering for control of a "transitional" government which is to take over pending parliamentary elections. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page ii Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 SLCIRIi I' EEC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS MEETING German intransigence forced the Council at last week's meeting to postpone until December further consideration of unifying Community grain prices. The ministers did decide to open talks with Spain and Nigeria looking to- ward some form of association with the EEC. Page ITALIAN GOVERNMENT AVOIDS CRISIS While chances appear fairly good that the center-left coalition will hold together over the next few months, it will be under severe pressures from many quarters, BRITISH LABOR PARTY GAINS Party leader Wilson enhanced his own image as Britain's next prime minister by his consultations with Khrushchev in Moscow last week., and the latest by-election and opin- ion polls show that Labor continues to please the voters, ELECTION NOTE On Luxembourg CUBAN MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS Five Soviet passenger ships carrying 1,500 persons have left Cuba since the first of May. All four surface-to-air missile installations evacuated in late May have been relocated. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page iii Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET WESTERN HEMISPHERE (continued) Page BRITISH GUIANA'S PROSPECTS FOR COALITION GOVERNMENT REMOTE 15 The smallest of the three political parties refuses to participate at all TENSION IN ARGENTINA AS LABOR AGITATION CONTINUES Despite government concessions, the Peronist-dominated labor confederation has announced the continuation of its "battle plan" to back up its wide-ranging political. and economic demands. BRAZIL'S EX-PRESIDENT KUBITSCHEK LOSES POLITICAL RIGHTS 16 While the government's relations with Kubitschek's large political party have been put under some strain, Presi- dent Castello Branco has strengthened his position among military leaders, who feared Kubitschek's re-elec- tion might restore corruption and Communist influence. COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT MOVES AGAINST COMMUNIST ENCLAVE 17 The army action has met only light resistance in the Marquetalia enclave thus far, but the Communists are protesting the cleanup campaign by terror bombings in major cities. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page iv Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET MOSCOW INTENSIFIES EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT PEIPING'S POLICIES Over the past few weeks, the USSR has increased its ef- forts to create the impression that the majority of Communist parties endorse its denuncia- tion of Communist China's "splitting" activities within the world Communist movement. It seems to believe that by building a convincing public record of Chinese intransigence and obstructionism it can even- tually overcome the opposition of many of the parties to an in- ternational Communist conference. In a 3 June Izvestia edi- torial, Moscow leveled a blis- tering attack against the Chinese and warned them of the dangers of not consulting with the So- viet Union on major political and economic policies. The editorial maintained that Pei- ping now is openly voicing its contempt for treaties concluded with "fraternal countries." It implied that the Chinese no longer abide by the provision in the 1950 Sino-Soviet treaty of alliance that they will give the Soviet Union information on ques- tions of foreign policy. Izvestia contrasted this alleged growing trend toward isolation with the "regular consultations" under- taken by members of the Warsaw Pact on all important interna- tional problems. The editorial also condemned Peiping's failure to coordinate economic policies with other Communist countries. This ac- cusation, which by implication was also directed at the Ru- manians, was buttressed in a 4 June Izvestia article which labeled as a solutely imper- missible the uncoordinated steps of some members" of the ""socialist camp" in foreign trade. Pravda, too, has dramatized Peiping s subversive activities. It lashed out at the Chinese withdrawal from the bloc's theo- retical journal, Problems of Peace and Socialism, and criti- cized Peiping'~'s new journal, Revolution. Other articles have made a serious effort to prove that the Chinese are "fractionists" and are providing political di- rection to anti-Soviet Communist party factions throughout the world. Pravda went on to claim that a "majority of all parties from all areas of the world now want a world Communist confer- ence as soon as possible." The extensive bilateral consultations Soviet leaders have held over the past two weeks with high-level repre- sentatives from East Germany, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Yugo- slavia suggest that Moscow is concerned over the lack of uni- fied Eastern European support of its tactics against the Chinese. A senior Finnish Foreign Ministry official told the US Embassy that on the basis of Tito's remarks during his state visit to Fin- land, the "sole purpose" of his Leningrad meeting with Khru- shchev was to discuss tactics to be pursued in the dispute SECRET Page 1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET 25X1 NEW EVIDENCE OF SOVIET-YUGOSLAV MILITARY COLLABORATION Reports that Yugoslavia will soon buy "liberal quanti- ties" of Soviet military equip- ment on long-term credit add to the growing evidence of closer Soviet-Yugoslav cooperation in military affairs. Yugoslav De- fense Secretary Gosnjak and others deny, however, that these purchases signify agreement on matters other than procurement, and state that Yugoslavia has turned to the Soviets because equipment is not available from the West. The types of arms to be purchased have not been publicly specified Yugoslavia al- ready has at least 21 MIG-21s, as well as SU-100 self-propelled guns and T-54 tanks, and at least 14 surface-to-air missiles, 18 self-propelled twin anti- aircraft guns, and 12 clusters of Snapper antitank missiles. Yugoslav-Soviet cooperation is also evidenced by the schedul- ing of an official Soviet naval visit to Yugoslav ports from 18 to 25 June. This is the first such visit since October 1957. In addition, Soviet Defense Minister Malinovsky recently spent a week in Yugoslavia. Al- though the specific topics dis- cussed are unknown, his delega- tion included the chief of naval intelligence, the leading mili- 25X1 tary aid official on the General Staff, and a leading surface-to- air missile expert. Yugoslavia will prob ably stop short of jeopardizing 25X1 25X1 its relations with the West by any such obvious move as a full re-equipment program using So- viet arms. However, the USSR will probably seek to translate its position as Yugoslavia's major military supplier into some form of military or politi- cal gain. SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Revered and belayed Chairman Mao. Chairman Mao, everyday I wish, and-very mont, I hope, to see you. I look at your picture several times a day and see your kindly face even Diary of soldier hero Lei Feng, published April 1963 gardeners; Mao Tse tung's thinking nurtures my growth with dew and sunshine, plants with no rainwater wifFwither the thought of Chairman Mao, even Without the stud, y of with your eyes open you ,People 's Daily,26 March 1964. On cannot be l Ignt dbout the fact that Mao Tse tongs petsanaflt u t is having a more and more negative inrl"uence aFo 11 11 sntheactivity ofthe C iinese ommunist Party. Formanyyears now, Chinese propaganda hasieen assuring everyone that Mao Tse tun's ideas"are the"hijiest embodiment'of Marxism- nd tat opt epoc is the epoch of Mao Tse-tung. Leninism a h It is quite clear now that the CCP leadership is trying to Sad the cult of Mao Tse-tang's personality to the entire world Communist moveme sothatthe (PleaderLl"ke Stalin In his time, can be raise to the level J'; god above all Marxist-Leninist parties andcan determine according to his oWn Will ail the questions of their policy and activities. r .. Suslov speech to the February Soviet central committee plenum, published 3 April 1964 IN 1HE CHINESE COMMUNIST PRESS "The thinking of Mao Tse-tung is welcomed by revolutionary people everywhere, for they derive a revolutionary weaponfrom the experience of the Chinese revolution and from the Marxist- Leninist works of Comrade Moo Tse-tango This is a very good thing, and only the imperialists and reactionaries are unhappy nb0u# ix,, InsJheu vain} }f rljp vil f,'y Comrade Moo Tse-tung ond_bi .ides the Leaders of the Soviet party are like ants 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET The people of Communist China, from housewives to gov- ernment officials, are now un- der strong pressure to spend several hours every week study- ing Mao Tse-tung's writings for spiritual guidance. While rev- erence for Mao's works is noth- ing new in China, this year's unprecedented campaign and Mao's increasingly imperious public behavior have brought the cult of his personality to a level which approaches the sycophancy around Stalin during his last years. The cult of Mao, although practiced mainly for domestic reasons, serves external pur- poses also. Peiping bases much of its claim for ideological leadership of the world Commu- nist movement on its assertion that Mao is the world's greatest living Marxist theoretician. To Afro-Asians, Mao is presented as a symbol of anti-imperialism, and his increasingly frequent receptions for their representa- tives are conducted with much pomp and ceremony. The drive to imbue people with "the thought of Mao" is ap- parently being undertaken in the belief that it will bolster the party's sagging prestige and in- crease the people's willingness to work hard for little material return. However, there are prob- ably many pragmatic Chinese, in- cluding most scientists and tech- nicians, who find it hard to swallow the demand that Mao's writings be studied as if they were divine scripture. The basic material used in the study campaign is The Se- lected Works of Mao Tseiung, a four-volume coTT c on a sermonizing essays with titles like "On Protracted War," "On Contradictions," and "On Prac- tice." Written 15 to 30 years ago in a repetitious style and dogmatic manner, they abound in Maoist homilies: for example, "knowledge comes from experience" and--the most famous Maoism of all--"power grows from the barrel of a gun." The "study Mao" campaign is highly organized. In 1963, activists were given three-month courses in directing "study Mao" sessions in factories. By March 1964, according to Peiping, the drive to learn from Mao was "sweeping the nation." In April the campaign was receiving in- tensive treatment in newspapers, radio, plays, study classes, and public speeches. Although the People's Daily on 26 March in- structed party officials to be sure that participation was strictly "voluntary," such an injunction has little meaning in China, where social pressure for conformity is nearly over- powering. The campaign emphasizes the application of Mao's precepts to daily personal and work problems. Persons who merely memorize Mao's writings are sternly criticized. SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 3 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 SECRET Chinese newspapers are full of homely examples of people, such as a vegetable vendor and a tele- phone operator, who studied Mao and now work more efficiently. A soldier wavering in his de- cision to re-enlist was stirred by Mao's words, "the world can only be improved through the barrel of a gun," and promptly signed up for another tour. Work- men at a Shanghai shipyard who were having trouble fitting a steam engine into the hull of a fishing boat were said to have solved the problem after studying Mao's principle of "concentrating on the main contradictions." Another story tells how a soldier absorbed in one of Mao's works did not even look up when his troop train passed through his native village, which he had not seen in many years. Every- one is urged to be like this soldier, and carry one of Mao's works with him at all times to read in leisure moments. And, according to Peiping, every house should have several conveniently placed sets of The Selected Works. Although some letup in intensity may occur, the drive to study Mao appears well en- trenched and probably will be sustained so long as Mao is on the scene. SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 4 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET Neutralist military forces in Laos suffered setbacks this week. Elements under Kong Le have withdrawn from positions at Muong Kheung, some ten miles north of the Plaine des Jarres, while Pathet Lao forces have ap- parently regained control of Phou Kout, a strategic hill guarding the approaches to the neutralist stronghold of Muong Soui, west of the Plaine. In Vientiane, rightist elements appear more dissatis- fied than ever with Souvanna Phouma's performance as premier. They have long distrusted the idea of a new Geneva conference, which he supports, and are crit- ical of his recent statements opposing US overflights. Gen- eral Phoumi has hinted that there is growing opposition to Souvanna within the government which could develop into another move against him. On 10 June Kong Le himself expressed frus- tration over Souvanna's failure to call for foreign aid in the face of the Communist advances. The neutralist commander told the press he wanted increased US support, specifically "more jet bombers and fighters to de- stroy all enemy positions." The Pathet Lao are also sharpening their criticism of Souvanna. They now call him a "traitor to Laos" who is beginning to "ex- terminate" the Laotian people. Diplomatic maneuvering over Laos centers on the question of a proper forum for internationl negotiations. In a 6 June let- ter to the Chinese Communist foreign minister, Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko again indicated Moscow's agreement to a full 14-nation "Geneva" conference on Laos. He said that a 14-nation conference could be held in Cam- bodia, but added that all 14 signatories of the 1962 Geneva accords must agree to such a decision. The USSR has also en- dorsed the Polish proposal for six-power consultations, claim- ing that these would facilitate convening a larger conference later. However, Chinese and Pathet Lao insistence that only a 14-nation conference is compe- tent to settle the Laos problem may increase Soviet caution in discussions with the UK on the Polish plan. Peiping's latest official statement on Laos, broadcast on 9 June, reiterated its opposi- tion to any negotiations short of a full Geneva-type conference, which would give the Chinese a voice in the proceedings. Pei- ping's displeasure with the Pol- ish proposal, implied in its 26 May statement on Laos, was made more explicit. While Peiping stresses the seriousness of the situation in Southeast Asia, probably in an attempt to gener- ate pressure against US inter- vention, it is apparently in no hurry to negotiate and foresees lengthy preliminary maneuvers before formal talks can start. Chinese Communists. Although Souva.nna has ac- cepted the Polish proposal, he evidently favors a. full-scale conference. He told the US am- bassador on 6 June that he saw "potential failure" in the Polish plan because it leaves out the SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 5 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 SECRET Public disorders in South Korea have abated, but President Pak Chong-hui now probably faces a behind-the-scenes power strug- gle that could undermine his government. To placate his critics, Pak has promised to eliminate government corruption and punish officials guilty of irregulari- ties. He has gradually eased restrictions on public activi- ties in Seoul, where martial law was declared on 3 June to halt student demonstrations. Some political observers fear, how- ever, that Pak will prolong mar- tial law to eliminate opponents of his regime. The resignation of Pak's strong man, Kim Chong-pil, as chairman of the ruling Democrat- ic-Republican Party (DRP) has eased the immediate pressure on Pak from Kim's enemies both in and out of the government. Kim has been the principal target of the student demonstrators, who are dissatisfied with their eco- nomic prospects and oppose a settlement normalizing relations INDIA'S NEW CABINET UNDER SHASTRI Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri's new 16-member cabinet (see reverse of page) appointed this week, retains sub- stantially the same moderate character and composition as its predecessor. The key portfolios of defense, home, and finance remain with their incumbents. with Japan. The one student death caused by the demonstra- tions has not yet been picked up as a new cause. Kim is still not completely eliminated from the political scene, however, and probably will attempt to retain behind-the- scenes control of the DRP appara- tus. As a further complication, his apparent decline will touch off political infighting among other politicians hoping to replace him. The role of senior general officers in forcing Kim's ouster has increased the influence of military figures in politics, where they have not been prom- inent since Pak re-established civilian government last December. If the situation worsens, senior commanders may rally to Pak's support as they did last year to prevent the collapse of the former military government. Some officers, however, might unite with politicians to weaken Pak's control or even force him out. Shastri will supervise foreign affairs and atomic energy, as Nehru did. The right and left extremes of the Congress Party, represented respectively by former finance minister Morarji Desai and by Krishna Menon and K.D. Malaviya, SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 6 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 _1 HE INDIAN CABINET (9 June 1964) Age Prime Minister, Minister of External Affairs, Chairman of Atomic Energy Commission 59 Minister of Home Affairs Gulzarilal Nanda* Minister of Finance T. T. Krishnamachari Minister of Information and Broadcasting Indira Gandhi * Minister of Industry, Engineering, and Sardar Swaran Singh Technical Development Minister of Railways S. K. Pati I Minister of Law and Communications A. K. Sen Minister of Defense Y. B. Chavan * Minister of Steel and Mines Sanjiva Reddy Minister of Food and Agriculture C. Subramaniam Minister of Petroleum and Chemicals Humayun Kabir Minister of Parliamentary Affairs and Satyanarain Sinha Civil Aviation Minister of Irrigation and Power H. C. Dasappa Minister of Education M. C. Chagla Minister of Labor and Employment D. Sanjivayya Minister of Rehabilitation Mahavir Tyagi Names in green identify ministers who were members of previous government. Names followed by an asterisk ;dentify ministers who are also on the all-powerful, 19-member Conqress Party Working Committee. Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET were rebuffed in their efforts to re-establish their influence in the cabinet. The two most notable additions to the govern- ment--Nehru's daughter, Indira Gandhi, supported by the left, and the conservative former food and agriculture minister, S.K. Patil--are popularly identified with the extreme factions. How- ever, both appear willing to ac- cede to the moderate socialist economic measures and the some- what more conciliatory foreign policies, particularly concern- ing Pakistan, that the new gov- ernment is likely to pursue ini- tially. Even with second-ranking portfolios, both are likely to be part of a small inner cabinet which, with the prime minister, As a result of Khrushchev's talks with Iraqi Premier Arif in Cairo last month, an Iraqi mili- tary delegation has gone to Mos- cow, and an economic delegation will follow soon. Moscow already has agreed in principle to substitute air- craft and land armaments for the surface-to-air missile (SAM) pro- gram canceled by Iraq. Current negotiations probably will lead to a major new arms deal The new Iraqi shopping list includes ad- ditional MIG-21 jet fighters,TU-16 jet bombers, T-54 tanks, armored may also include, ministers Nanda, Krishnamachari, Chavan, and possibly Subramaniam. Gov- ernment decisions will also be influenced by Atulya Ghosh, the foremost political power in east- ern India, and by the Congress Party president, Kamaraj, a south Indian. These nine leaders will probably participate directly in all major decisions. Of this group, only Subramaniam and Krish- namachari are not regular mem- bers of the party's all-powerful Working Committee. Shastri--although growing more assertive--is likely to main- tain, at least at first, a con- ciliatory and deferential pos- 25X1 ture of first among equals with- in this group as well as within the cabinet as a whole. personnel carriers, and ammuni- tion and spare parts for the more than $300 million worth of equipment furnished by the USSR under three earlier agreememts. Although military shipments were suspended by Moscow for a three-month period at the height of the Soviet-Iraqi dispute last summer, the curtailment in eco- nomic aid activities was at Iraqi initiative. The government held a lengthy review of Soviet proj- ects included under the $137- million economic credit extended in 1959 which resulted in a re- vision of the aid program. A steel plant, a chemical fertilizer plant, and a sulfur extraction plant originally covered by the aid agreement have been canceled SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 7 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET and opened for Western bids. Other Soviet projects, notably an electric light bulb factory and a woolen textile plant, are still under review. Work has continued on some 15 projects, but after a five- year period only four--a radio station, a garment factory, a cannery, and an automatic tele- phone exchange for Baghdad-- have been put into operation. The Baghdad-Basra railroad built with Soviet aid under a separate credit of about $46 million was opened last March. The coming economic talks will probably concentrate first on the $50 million worth of Soviet projects which Iraq has canceled or which have been dor- mant. Moscow may also offer to participate in some new projects for which Iraq has recently requested bids. The So- Turkey: The strength gained by the Justice Party (JP) at the expense of minor parties in Tur- key's 7 June senatorial elec- tions increases its already good chances of a substantial victory in the 1965 general election. As the minor parties--the New Turkey Party and the Republican Peasant Nation Party--will prob- ably continue to disintegrate, that election will in effect be- come a contest between the JP and the present ruling party, the Republican People's Party. viets are said to have recently discussed the supply of equipment on credit for a $6-million rail- way workshops project. The USSR, which has done extensive river surveys in Iraq, may also offer to participate in major water conservation projects long under consideration by the Iraqi Gov- ernment. The discussions of military and economic aid are unlikely to cause any appreciable change in political relations. Moscow may ex- pect, however, that by expanding its contacts with Baghdad it can induce the government to be more tolerant of local Communists and to associate itself more closely with Soviet policy objectives. The day before the senator- ial election, the JP's figure- head president-general, Ragip Gumuspala, died. The party may choose another weak, compromise leader like Gumuspala in order to avoid a fight over his replace- ment. If it meets the issue squarely, however, the victor might well be from that wing of the party which most strongly opposes military influence in politics. Such a development would increase the distrust of the JP among Turkey's military SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET TURKISH INTERVENTION ON CYPRUS DEFERRED The threatened Turkish in- tervention in Cyprus has been deferred. The invasion forces, concentrated in the Iskenderun area of southern Turkey, have been placed in a more relaxed state of readiness. They have par- ticipated in several amphibious exercises in recent weeks, how- ever, and presumably could rapidly carry out any new order to intervene. Many senior Turkish mili- tary and political leaders are bitterly disappointed at Prime Minister Inonu's acceptance of US advice against intervention and may exert pressure to re- verse his decision. The Turk- ish press has criticized recent US actions and anti-US slogans --possibly the work of left- wing students--have appeared on the windows of US installa- tions in Ankara. The press and the Turkish public appear convinced that the US is com- mitted to participate actively in obtaining a. "solution" of the Cyprus issue. Citing the latest Turkish threat, the Greek Cypriots early this week began to call publicly for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council but on 11 June announced that no formal request for a special meeting would be made at this time. Their motive seems to be to use the recent Turkish actions and militant speeches to build up a. case for eventually demanding that UN forces on Cyprus be given a broader mission than peace- keeping. The Greek Cypriots want the UN troops to assist in quelling the Turkish Cypriot "rebellion" and to defend Cyprus against Turkish invasion. The present UN mandate comes up for extension by the Security Council in mid-June. Greek Cypriot charges against Ankara will also be used to counter expected com- plaints from Turkey and the Turk- ish Cypriots regarding the Greek Cypriots' recent passage of their conscription bill and their an- nounced intention to import heavy arms. The Greek Cypriots have begun to draft men for military service under the new regulations. Rumors still circulate in Nicosia that Vice President Kuchuk is about to declare certain areas of Cyprus either independent or Turkish territory and to request immediate military assistance from Turkey. Greek Cypriot forces have strengthened their positions, apparently in prepara- tion for a possible Turkish in- vasion and probably also for a quick attack on Turkish Cypriot positions if Kuchuk makes the anticipated announcement SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 9 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 SECRET GENERAL STRIKE AGITATES NIGERIA A general strike over wage issues, starting on 1 June, crippled Nigeria's essential public services and took on dis- tinct political overtones before showing signs of crumbling un- der government pressure this week. The strike occurred as Nigeria's parties were undergo- ing a major realignment in prep- aration for the national elec- tions due this year. After a protracted period of delay and, apparently, inde- cision, federal authorities moved abruptly to break the strike. On 8 June Prime Minister Balewa told the workers bluntly that the government would not nego- tiate while the strike continued. A 48-hour back-to-work ultimatum was issued, and troops took over key installations in Lagos, the federal capital, and other cities. By 10 June, some strikers were beginning to return to their jobs, although the major union leaders had not yet capitulated. The strike has subjected the federal coalition govern- ment--dominated by the conserva- tive Northern People's Congress (NPC)--to heavy new strains. Michael Okpara, premier of south- ern Nigeria's Eastern Region and leader of the coalition's junior partner, the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), has begun cautiously to take up the workers' cause. Last week he announced that the NCNC has made an electoral alliance with the opposition party, the Action Group (AG), which has announced "unqualified" support for the strikers. Okpara is himself embroiled with the central government over last year's controversial census which favored the North. Both the NCNC and the AG are southern- based parties, and their alliance can only intensify the already existing tensions between north- ern and southern Nigeria. Extremist elements have benefited greatly by the strike. Such elements in the trade unions and in the pro-Communist Social- ist Workers and Farmers Party have long planned to capitalize on growing social discontent to develop a national front and replace the present regime. Al- though their political position is still weak, the strike has given them an excellent oppor- tunity to contrast the ostenta- tious manner of living of most high government officials with that of the average Nigerian and may have strengthened their num- bers. SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 10 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET TENSE SECURITY SITUATION AND POLITICAL TURBULENCE IN CONGO The security situation in the eastern Congo remains tense and uncertain.) Two Congo Army (ANC) com- panies with some local police hold defensive positions south of the city and have rallied to their side a large group of trib- al enemies of the rebels. ANC commander General Mobutu visited Bukavu and organized the various units into a new brigade /It seems unlikely that new equipment and reinforce- ments will improve the ANC's performance. Premier Adoula has as yet been unable to obtain African troops from outside the Congo to help the ANC after the UN troops leave. If the situation deteriorates rapidly, he may be forced to appeal to Belgium for military assistance. The debacle in Kivu has warmed up political activity in Leopoldville. A new politi- cal combination, the African Democratic Committee (CDA), was formed last week. It includes Minister of Defense Anany, four other cabinet ministers, and a leader of President Kasavubu's key Kongo Central Province ABAKO party. The CDA hopes that Kasa- vubu will name one of its leaders to head the "transitional" gov- ernment which Kasavubu, following the recommendation of a consti- tutional commission, is supposed to appoint this month to adminis- ter the country until new parlia- mentary elections. Both the CDA group and the slow-starting pro-Adoula Rally of Congolese Democrats are court- ing Katangan support. The CDA in particular hopes to win over exiled Katangan leader Moise Tshombd. Anany, who has been close to the Belgians, said re- cently that he would like to see Tshombd as head of the new gov- ernment. Tshombd on 10 June indicated again he was "ready to serve"and hinted he would ally himself with the CDA. Bel- gian officials in Brussels con- tinue to promote the idea of a government of national reconcilia- tion, including both Katangans and members of the anti-Adoula exile group, the Committee of National Liberation. 25X1 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 11 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET EEC COUNCIL OF MINISTERS MEETING Last week's meeting of the EEC Council of Ministers took some far-reaching decisions on the Common Market's grain prices and relations with Spain and Nigeria. German instransigence forced the Council to set mid- December as the new deadline for further consideration of whether or not to unify support prices for grains within the Community. The postponement was opposed by the EEC Commis- sion, which asserts that re- fusal to agree on unified prices not only imperils the Community, but jeopardizes the Kennedy Round trade negotiations. The Commission has sent a letter to the Community's six chiefs of state deploring the Council de- cision and requesting reconsid- eration of the matter before 1 August. There is no assurance that West Germany, facing an election next year, will be any more agreeable in December to lower- ing its grain prices to the lev- els proposed by the Community. The Commission, however, intends to apply further pressure in Bonn while the elections are still far enough off to allow Chancellor Erhard some room for maneuver. Although the French have the most to gain from agreement on unified prices, they finally agreed to the postponement. France may wish to let the Ger- mans set a precedent which would support the French thesis that important national interests should not be overridden by Com- munity decisions, a point of Europe view which endangers the Common Market treaty's majority-voting provision due to come into ef- fect on 1 January 1966.. In ad- dition, Paris is probably not unhappy that--to the extent the grain price issue delays the Kennedy Round--the blame will not be laid to France. On a more positive note, the Council finally decided to open talks with Spain and Ni- geria. The Spanish question has been particularly thorny because of strong anti-Franco feeling in Italy and Benelux and resentment over Spanish threats of economic reprisal if the EEC rejects Spain's bid for negotiations. The wording of the Council mandate to the Commission--calling for an ex- amination of "economic problems (for Spain) resulting from the development of the EEC"--appears to fall short of the Spanish request for EEC association. Madrid, nevertheless, is report- edly pleased with the decision. The actual negotiations with Spain, however, are likely to be prolonged. France ended its opposition to Nigeria's requests for talks looking to some form of associa- tion with the EEC, but Paris will still have ample opportu- nity to throw up roadblocks to any final agreement. The Com- mission's mandate to open talks about 15 July is partially qual- ified by the French reservation that any eventual arrangement not impair advantages currently enjoyed by the 18 African states now associated with the EEC. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 12 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET Europe ITALIAN GOVERNMENT AVOIDS CRISIS Italian Premier Aldo Moro's coalition has weathered the near government crisis brought on by the Socialists' sharp re- action to Treasury Minister Colombo's recent call for a moratorium on socioeconomic reforms already agreed upon. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 13 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 SECRET While chances now appear fairly good that the center-left coali- tion will hold together for at least a few more months, it will continue under severe pressures and may face new crises. Christian Democratic right- wingers remain opposed to most of the reforms, and intraparty fac- tionalism is building up as the party prepares for its congress late this month. In addition, some Socialists--including Riccardo Lombardi, the influential editor of Avanti!--feel that the Christian Democratic Party's reaffirmation Labor Party chief Harold Wil- son appears to have enhanced his standing as Britain's prospective prime minister during his visit to Moscow last week. Press and public reaction in the UK has been favorable, and Wilson's visit is viewed as giving a further advan- tage to the Labor Party in the cur- rent pre-election period. In Mos- cow Wilson sought to convey the im- pression that he was a responsible and imaginative world statesman fully abreast of events and better able than the present prime minis- ter to deal with the Soviet leaders. British political observers generally agree that Wilson "scooped" Douglas-Home in arrang- ing talks with Khrushchev so soon after the latter's return from Cairo and in sounding out Soviet attitudes on the tense Southeast Asia situation. Latest British public opinion polls and a parlia- mentary by-election in Faversham25X1 last week show Labor continuing its lead over the Conservatives. Luxembourg: Prospects for the early formation of a durable coalition government seem to be poor. The present regime, composed of the moderately conservative Christian Socialists (PCS) and Demo- crats, came out of the 7 June elec- tions with only half of the 56 seats in parliament. The Democrats, usually identified with business, were the big losers and conse- quently may be replaced in the coalition by the Socialists, who won 21 seats, only one less than the PCS. In any event, any coali- tion excluding the Socialists would probably be fragile. The 25X1 Communist Party increased its parliamentary representation SECRET Europe last week of its intention to abide by the coalition's reform commitments is "equivocal." These Socialists will press for quick action on such specific reforms as urban renewal, regional legis- lation, and economic planning. Page 14 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 SECRET Western Hemisphere CUBAN MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS Since the first of May, five Soviet passenger ships have left Cuba for the Soviet Union with more than 1,500 passengers on board. Most of the passengers appear to be Soviet military per- sonnel. some may be dependents and Cubans. Two Soviet passenger ships ar- rived in Cuban ports on 7 June-- one in Havana and one in Santiago de Cuba. All four SAM installations evacuated in late May have been relocated. Three of the sites are within 13 nautical miles of Santa Clara in central Cuba, sub- stantially improving the defense of that important military area, 25X1 but leaving the Central Naval Dis- trict Headquarters at Cienfuegos unprotected by SAM defenses. The fourth was moved less than a mile from its original emplacement at 25X1 Mariel, west of Havana, probably because of local terrain conditions. BRITISH GUIANA'S PROSPECTS FOR COALITION GOVERNMENT REMOTE The chances that British Guiana's three political parties can form a coalition government are as dim as ever. A proposal made last week by Forbes Burnham, leader of the Peoples National Congress (PNC), is so far unac- ceptable to the other two parties --Premier Jagan's Peoples Pro- gressive Party (PPP) and the United Force (UF) led by Peter D'Aguiar. Burnham insists that Jagan call in all the arms in the country and establish a "national govern- ment." The ministries would be divided in the ratio of five for the PPP, five for the PNC, and two for the UF. He also stresses that this government would last only until elections are held. D'Aguiar, who strongly dis- likes Jagan, has flatly refused- to participate. Burnham has said he will not proceed with- out D'Aguiar and is not likely to get him to change his mind. SECRET 12 June 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 15 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 SECRET Western Hemisphere TENSION IN ARGENTINA AS LABOR AGITATION Political tension contin- ues to rise in Argentina as the tempers of both employers and the general public are begin- ning to wear thin over the con- tinuing agitation by the Peron- ist-dominated General Confeder- ation of Labor (CGT). Despite recent government concessions, the CGT has announced continu-. ation of its "battle plan" which heretofore has been high- lighted by a series of brief sit-down strikes, or "occupa- tions," at business establish- ments. The CGT central committee voted on 5 June to continue its plan until the government grants all of its wide-ranging polit- ical and economic demands. BRAZIL'S EX-PRESIDENT KUBITSCHEK Brazilian President Cas- tello Branco, continuing his government's two-month-old "clean-up" campaign, signed decrees this week canceling the political rights of more than 50 additional prominent politi- cians and labor leaders. Among them was ex-President Juscelino Kubitschek, now a senator, who had been a major contender in the presidential election sched- uled for October 1965. Others were the governor of Para State, Indicative of this polit- ical motivation is the fact that the CGT decision was made just as Congress was winding up action on two major CGT demands--a minimum wage law and a price ceiling on certain common com- modities. The CGT has criti- cized both measures as inadequate and will try to exert pressure on the President, who will set the precise wage and price levels under the new law. LOSES POLITICAL RIGHTS several state deputies, and the mayor of Belem. Although reaction thus far to the move against Kubitschek has been mixed, public criticism has been relatively mild. The government's relations with his large Social Democratic Party (PSD), however, have been put under some strain. PSD congres- sional leaders have issued a statement of "solidarity" with Kubitschek and emphasized the SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 16 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 w Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 ``.o` SECRET party's independence of the gov- ernment bloc. Without support from the PSD, which holds 116 Of 409 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the ad- ministration could have trouble putting through some of its major reform bills, despite the simpli- fied procedures available to the President under the "Institutional Act." However, the absence of solid support for Kubitschek in the PSD and the lack of party dis- cipline would tend to offset ef- forts by the small hard core of Kubitschek followers to achieve unified opposition to the govern- ment. On the other hand, Castello Branco has strengthened his posi- tion among top military leaders, a number of whom had apparently been pressing him to nullify Kubitschek's political rights. They feared that Kubitschek's re- election to the presidency would Western Hemisphere restore what their military rev- olution is seeking to eliminate --corruption and Communist influ- ence in government. The government has not stated its reasons for the action against Kubitschek, but Castello Branco's chief civilian adviser told US Embassy officials that well-docu- mented justification exists and that no final decision had been 2 -._ s , 25X1 reached on whe+h er to pub Indications are that addi- tional lists of persons deprived of political rights will be is- sued before the emergency powers expire on 15 June. Castello 25X1 Branco has confirmed that he does not plan to extend these powers beyond that date. COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT MOVES AGAINST COMMUNIST ENCLAVE A campaign by the Colombian Government to eliminate the Commu- nist enclave called Marquetalia is going into its second month. The first armed resistance was not en- countered until 5 June, but the tempo of the fighting is expected to increase in the days ahead. The Marquetalia Valley, be- tween the departments of Tolima and Huila, was "proclaimed" by the Com- munists in 1960 to be "The Independ- ent Republic of Marquetalia." It is one of the more recent of five regions in central Colombia to come under Communist control. Arms and ammunition, as well as drugs, cloth- ing, and some food are smuggled in- to Marquetalia from other parts of Colombia. The Colombian Communist Party (PCC) has protested the army's "in- terference" in Marquetalia from the beginning. The protests erupted into violence on 7 June when a wave of bombings in major Colombian cit- ies left at least one person dead and several wounded. Anonymous phone calls to newspapers asserted that the bombings were reprisals 25X1 against the Marquetalia campaign and indicated that more violence would follow. SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page 17 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A004500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1 Approved For Release 2008/04/24: CIA-RDP79-00927AO04500030001-1