WEEKLY SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A004500010001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 33
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 5, 2008
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 28, 1964
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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(Information as of 1200 EDT, 27 May 1964)
THE COMMUNIST WORLD
RUMANIA LAUNCHES ANTI-SOVIET INDOCTRINATION CAMPAIGN
The regime is apparently trying to maximize its public
support and may be setting the stage for some new and
more dramatic demonstration of independence from Moscow.
Moscow's concern is probably reflected in its invitation
to Bucharest to sent a party delegation to the USSR.
SOVIET CULTURAL THAW CONFIRMED
Leonid Ilichev and other party spokesmen, in meetings
with leading intellectuals, promised a more liberal at-
titude toward the arts and reportedly urged their lis-
teners to take a firm stand against Chinese "dogmatism."
THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF KHRUSHCHEV'S VISIT TO EGYPT
Khrushchev used his speeches and actions in Egypt to re-
fute Chinese charges of Soviet indifference to the needs
of "national liberation movements" and to stress that the
USSR too is an Asian state and therefore entitled to at-
tend the forthcoming Afro-Asian conference.
AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
The grain crops in the USSR and Eastern Europe will
probably be average or better, but prospects are less
favorable in China and Cuba.
ASIA-AFRICA
COMMUNIST MILITARY PRESSURES CONTINUE IN LAOS
Neutralist forces have withdrawn farther in some areas,
although they and the Laotian rightists plan to move
forward in others. The French proposal for a new full-
scale international conference on Laos has been endorsed
by Moscow and Peiping.
SPLIT IN INDIAN COMMUNIST PARTY
Both the pro- and anti-Soviet factions will hold
national-level meetings in early June, at which
time the lines of the split will probably harden.
Page
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28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page i
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ASIA-AFRICA (continued)
On the death of Nehru
ARMS STOCKPILING PORTENDS NEW OUTBREAKS ON CYPRUS
UN officials are concerned that unless they are author-
ized to prevent new arms from reaching the island, the
situation will become "well-nigh hopeless."
ALGERIAN REGIME FACES GROWING DISSATISFACTION
President Ben Bella got a cool public reception on his
return from three weeks in the USSR and Eastern Europe,
and rumors of moves against him are again circulating.
NIGERIAN POLITICS REMAIN TURBULENT
The regional political parties are continuing the dis-
pute over last year's census, which favors the North,
and labor leaders threaten a new round of agitation.
CONGO SECURITY SITUATION DETERIORATING AGAIN
The virtual collapse of the Congo Army's effort against
the rebels in the eastern part of the country appears
to be encouraging insurgents in other areas.
EUROPE
Page
e
to reinforce his party's domestic political position against
the Communists. His trip, however may set off another
round of debate in Italy on the Peiping-recognition issue.
THE ITALIAN SOCIALISTS AND THE CHINA-RECOGNITION ISSUE
A leading Socialist is visiting China in a move intend d
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28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page ii
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EUROPE (continued) Page
STATUS OF THE MULTILATERAL FORCE DISCUSSIONS
The eight nations participating in the current MLF talks
.are still considering issues involved in drawing up a
charter for the force, but US hopes for a signed agree-
ment by the end of the year are dampened by the electoral
distraction this year in the UK and similar political un-
certainties in Italy. Meanwhile, NATO members are con-
sidering a new draft agreement on exchange of nuclear
weapons information.
ELECTION NOTE
On Luxembourg 16
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
CUBA STILL PUSHING CAMPAIGN AGAINST US OVERFLIGHTS
Cuba will continue and probably expand its diplomatic
and propaganda offensive against the US, but evidently
does not expect a solution of the overflight issue un-
til after the US presidential election.
MEXICO AND THE COLORADO RIVER SALINITY PROBLEM
Anti-US resentment is rising rapidly in Mexico over the
unresolved problem of the Colorado River's salinity,
which has been causing ever-increasing damage to Mexi-
can crops and agricultural land.
RACIAL VIOLENCE IN BRITISH GUIANA
Racial violence, terrorism, and arson are spreading de-
spite declaration of a state of emergency and deployment
of British troops.
INTERIM STATUS REPORT ON BRAZILIAN REVOLUTION
The continuing momentum of the reform program lends
credibility to the new regime's claim to have staged
a revolution and not a mere military coup.d'etat. US
officials in Brazil believe its chances are good for
approaching its goals without becoming authoritarian.
ELECTION NOTES 21
On Guatemala and Bolivia
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28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Page iii
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The Communist World
RUMANIA LAUNCHES ANTI-SOVIET INDOCTRINATION CAMPAIGN
The Rumanian regime, in
the wake of its 22 April decla-
ration of independence in Soviet
bloc affairs, now is conducting
a nationwide anti-Soviet indoc-
trination campaign. Party
First Secretary Gheorghiu-Dej
is apparently trying to maximize
his public support by citing
specific examples of Soviet
perfidy and the regime's success-
ful defense of Rumanian national
interests. He may also be
setting the stage for some
further demonstration of Ru-
mania's independence.
The two-week-old campaign
has exceeded previous efforts
in several respects while main-
taining the drumfire of criti-
cism against Soviet economic
exploitation and efforts to in-
tegrate East European economies,
s
R
ome
umanian s eskers
have attacked Khrus
chev himself as a "thief" and
"corn and pig specialist."
The present campaign, more-
over, unlike earlier criticism
kept within party circles, is
aimed at the public. Indoctri-
nation meetings are apparently
organized by occupation and
tailored to specific groups.
Doctors, for example, have re-
portedly been told that Moscow
denied Rumania access to new
medical techniques and equipment,
but that "in coming days" Ruma-
nian medicine will be unfettered.
The regime is apparently
trying also to reassure the peo-
ple that Moscow cannot reverse
28 May 64
the course of events.
In stark contrast to the
anti-Soviet campaign, the regime
is openly showing receptivity
toward increased cooperation
with the West. Extensive pub-
licity is being given, for ex-
ample, to the current visit to
Washington of a high-ranking
delegation which Bucharest
hopes will discover "new paths
for expanding relations." The
press also played up laudatory
statements by a Rumanian elec-
tric power official who recently
led a delegation to the US.
Moscow's deep concern is
probably reflected in its invi-
tation to Bucharest to send a
party delegation to the USSR,
ostensibly to study party methods
of directing the Soviet economy.
However, the group, which ar-
rived in Moscow on 26 May and
began discussions the same
evening, is headed by politburo
member Chivu Stoica, a special-
ist in international Communist
relations. The Soviets will
almost certainly urge the Ru-
manians to halt their personal
abuse of Khrushchev. The Ru-
manians may play down the sig-
nificance of their recent actions
as they have in conversations
with Western diplomats, but
Bucharest shows no sign of backing
away from its independent stand.
Dej may be sowing the seeds
of unrest by creating an air of
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expectancy. People are talking
of a turn to the West and pass-
ing rumors that pro-Soviet party
leaders have been purged and that
one tried to defect to the USSR.
The release of large numbers of
political prisoners is probably
encouraging hopes for domestic.
liberalization. While the regime
is by implication blaming Moscow
for 20 years of repression in Ru-
mania, there are few signs that the 25X1
assertion of independence will have
political significance for the man
in the street.
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The chairman of the Soviet
Ideological Commission, Leonid
Ilichev, has confirmed the past
year's trend toward a relaxation
of cultural controls. According
to Western press reports, he also
called for a firm stand by Soviet
intellectuals against Chinese "dog-
matism." Soviet intellectuals now
expect a significant moderation in
the official attitude toward se-
lected aspects of Western art.
At a meeting with leading in-
tellectuals on 16 and 17 May, Ili-
chev and other party spokesmen re-
portedly agreed that experimenta-
tion and variety are desirable in
the arts, and attacked critics in
all fields for failing to assist
in such initiatives. Several non-
conformists who were harshly crit-
icized during the freeze of early
1963 were singled out last week for
praise, and young artists whose
works were confiscated in December
1962 were allegedly told that they
now could hope for public showings.
This promise of liberalization in
painting and sculpture was limited,
however, by Ilichev's reiterated
strictures against "abstract art,"
which continues to be classed with
"pornography" in the eyes of con-
formist art critics.
The meeting has not been re-
ported in the Soviet press. US
Embassy contacts have reported
Ilichev's promises of liberaliza-
tion, but have not mentioned the
references to the Chinese problem.
The credibility of Western press
reports of his plea for support of
Soviet intellectuals in the face of
Chinese attacks was bolstered,
however, by the appearance in
Pravda on 24 May of an article by
liberal novelist Konstantine Simo-
nov. Simonov ridiculed Chinese at-
tempts to "fish with rotten bait"
by sending "silly attacks against
our party and its leadership" to
"private addresses."
Soviet spokesmen have com-
plained in the past about handouts
by the Chinese Embassy in Moscow
and Chinese broadcasts aimed at
alienating the Soviet people from
party leaders. Simonov's article
is the first public reference to
Chinese propaganda addressed to in-
dividual Soviet citizens. It is
also the first public reference by
a member of the Soviet creative in-
telligentsia to the Chinese prob-
lem, although Soviet historians
have recently attacked Chinese
historiography, among other things,
for glorifying Genghis Khan.
The Chinese press last year
criticized such liberal Soviet in-
tellectuals as Yevtushenko and
movie director Grigory Chukhrai.At
least twice, however, the Chinese
have found public words of praise
for conservative novelist Vsevolod
Kochetov and especially for his
novel, The Obkom Secretary, which
minimizes -Star n's crimes. Since
this view is a point at issue in
the Sino-Soviet dispute, the "rot-
ten bait" referred to by Simonov
may have been a Chinese attempt to
exploit the quarrel between liberal
and conservative Soviet writers,
which centers on the same issue.
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28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
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he Communist World
THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF KHRUSHCHEV'S VISIT TO EGYPT
Khrushchev capitalized on
the inauguration of the first
stage of the Aswan Dam to call
attention to the broad community
of views between Moscow and one
of the leading countries in the
neutralist world. In his speeches
in Egypt, he also stressed the
USSR's support for developing
countries, and its position as
an Asian nation--themes which
help counter recent Chinese ef-
forts to discredit Soviet poli-
cies in the Afro-Asian world.
These speeches were ad-
dressed not only to his Egyptian
listeners, but also to leaders
of the underdeveloped countries
of Africa and Asia. Soviet-
Egyptian relations have settled
into a pattern in which each
country respects the interests
of the other since cooperation
serves the interests of both.
Aid to Egypt, and particularly
for the Aswan Dam, enables Mos-
cow both to demonstrate its eco-
nomic and technical resources
and to counter Chinese charges
of indifference to the needs
of "national liberation move-
ments."
The closing communiqud,
like Khrushchev's speeches,
dwelt almost wholly on areas of
agreement, such as opposing
foreign bases in the Middle East
and favoring the end of colo-
nialism in the Middle East and
Africa. The communiqud ap-
peared to give at least indirect
Egyptian support to Soviet par-
ticipation in the forthcoming
Afro-Asian conference.
28 May 64
The one discordant note
was struck by Khrushchev's dis-
paraging remarks on Arab unity
in a speech emphasizing the need
for unity on a class, rather than
a racial basis. These remarks
and the references to the USSR
as an Asian power were largely
directed against Chinese efforts
to isolate the USSR from the
Afro-Asian world on grounds that
it is a white, European state.
Thus in raising the divisive issue
of Arab unity Khrushchev was pur-
suing the major purpose of his
visit which was to demonstrate
Soviet solidarity with revolution-
ary movements throughout the
world as well as to emphasize
the efficacy of Soviet aid in
the liberation and development
of Afro-Asian countries.
As a part of this effort,
Moscow agreed to provide about
$280 million in new economic
credits for Egypt's second five-
year development plan which be-
gins July 1965. This credit is
expected to cover one fourth of
the estimated foreign exchange
costs of the plan. In addition,
Moscow is committed to meet the
foreign exchange costs for the
second stage of construction of
the Aswan Dam.
Soviet assistance will con-
tinue to be concentrated in heavy
industry, particularly the met-
allurgical and electric power
industries. According to the
communiqud Moscow agreed to build
a large steel complex, a heavy
engineering works, and new thermal
and hydroelectric power stations.
SECRET
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SECRET The Communist
AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST
Agricultural prospects in the
Communist world appeared to be re-
latively favorable as of early May.
The USSR's grain crop will probably
be average or better. Major fac-
tors, in addition to weather for
the rest of the crop year, are how
much damage was caused by fall
drought and winterkill and how long
spring sowing is delayed. In most
of the European satellites, winter
grain yields should be average,
and spring planting has been nearly
completed under satisfactory condi-
tions. In Communist China, how-
ever, heavy spring rains have dam-
aged winter crops and,de-layed
spring planting. Cuba's sugar
production will probably be too
low to meet export commitments
and domestic requirements.
Soil moisture conditions in
the USSR are believed to be good
to excellent for most of the impor-
tant agricultural regions, and may
help compensate for the delay in
spring sowing. In the new lands
areas there is about twice as much
moisture in the soil as at this
time last year. Throughout the
country, the area to be sown to
spring crops is somewhat less than
last year, suggesting that damage
from fall drought and winterkill
was not as severe as in 1963-64,
when over 10 percent of the winter
grain area had to be reseeded.
Most of Eastern Europe can ex-
pect average yields of winter wheat
and rye if normal weather persists
through June. The exceptions are
Rumania and Bulgaria; in these
countries, soil moisture reserves
are low, and spring crops also
may be small unless rainfall is
normal during the coming months.
Abnormally heavy rains con-
tinued over a large part of Com-
munist China during April, ad-
versely affecting winter crops
and delaying spring planting in
all areas except the south.
Parts of the North China Plain,
a major wheat area, have been
flooded since August, and large
portions of Hunan and Kiangsi
provinces have been severely af-
fected. Crop prospects in the
important early-rice areas of
South and Southwest China, how-
ever, are much improved over last
year.
Conditions in North Korea
are very favorable. In North
Vietnam, prospects are that the
rice and vegetable harvests will
be better than the low levels of
recent years.
Cuban sugar production in
1964 should at least equal the
3.8 million metric tons harvested
last year. This will cover 1964
export commitments described by
Castro on 1 May, but will leave
nothing for local consumption,
normally about 400,000 metric
tons. Apparently, as was the
case in 1963, Cuba overestimated
its sugar crop at the time con-
tracts were being concluded.
However, recent Cuban actions in
the international sugar market,
including the purchase of 20,000
tons for delivery to Bulgaria and
China, are attempts to prevent a
further decline in world prices
rather than indications of serious
doubts about the anticipated har-
SECRET
28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
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Phou Keng' HYiaiig I,iey
'P ,JE hang Savan
Muong Phanh.
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Ban Kiang ~j
iang thouang
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Ban Namone
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VIENTIANE
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STATUTE MILES
NORTH
VIETNAM
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a1-Beupk
Road
Track or trail
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COMMUNIST MILITARY PRESSURES CONTINUE IN LAOS
The Communists in Laos have
continued to press against neu-
tralist positions north and west
of the Plaine des Jarres.
Vieng. The attack was
to get under way on 25
was delayed because of
difficulties. Such an
against a region which
scheduled
May, but
logistical.
attack--
has been
On 27 May, Pathet Lao forces
captured Muong Kheung, a key
neutralist outpost to the north
of the Plaine. At the same time,
they mounted a push west along
Route 7 toward Muong Soui and
drove defending neutralist ele-
ments from the strategic hill
position at Phou Kout.
To the south and east of
the Plaine, Communist forces
are continuing clearing opera-
tions against Meo hill positions.
Recent moves against these guer-
rilla units have centered in the
regions west of Ban Ta Viang and
north of Muong Moc.
In the Pak Sane area, Lao-
tian Army forces reportedly are
pressing north along Route 4
against only "light resistance"
from the Pathet Lao. Army offi-
cers on 25 May indicated that
enemy forces--once within 20
miles of Pak Sane--were with-
drawing to the north and were
located about 35 miles from that
regional headquarters. There
are reports, however, of a Com-
munist move toward the Mekong
along the Nam Ca Dinh River
about 20 miles to the east of
Pak Sane.
Right-wing and neutralist
forces reportedly are planning
a major move against Communist
strongpoints in the Muong Kassy
- Phou Khoun area north of Vang
under Communist control since
before the Geneva Accords--could
provoke a sharp Communist counter-
move.
The Laotian Air Force is
stepping up its operations, fly-
ing numerous bombing missions
against Pathet Lao road, truck,
and troop targets. The Pathet
Lao have protested these raids
and promised that "the Laotian
people will apply effective and
appropriate measures to defend
themselves."
Meanwhile, pressure is
mounting for another full-scale
international conference on the
Laos question. Moscow quickly
endorsed the French proposal for
reconvening the Geneva Conference
on Laos and has formally proposed
to the UK, co-chairman with the
USSR at Geneva, that they jointly
call for another conference. So-
viet leaders probably view such
a conference as one of the few
means open to them for influenc-
ing the Laotian situation.
Moscow's tactics at this
juncture seem aimed at avoiding
a crisis in East-West relations
such as might arise out of a
collapse of the Geneva settle-
ment and an escalation of the
fighting in Laos. Soviet offi-
cials appear to hope that the
US will be reluctant to intervene
SECRET
28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
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J'EC'RL'1'
more directly and will even-
tually accept a negotiated set-
tlement.
In an apparent effort to
influence US decisions, Soviet
spokesmen have privately
stressed the USSR's desire to
prevent the Laos crisis from
getting out of control. In
Paris, Soviet Ambassador Vino-
gradov on 25 May strongly in-
timated that the USSR had no
further interest in Laos and
had in effect disengaged it-
self from the situation. He
indicated to Ambassador Bohlen
that the US should follow the
same course.
Peiping's endorsement of
a conference on Southeast Asian
problems appears aimed at fur-
ther isolating the US and ren-
dering any direct US interven-
tion in Laos more difficult to
justify. In a letter to the
Geneva co-chairmen on 26 May,
Peiping proposed a meeting in
Phnom Penh of foreign minis-
ters from the 14 Geneva Con-
ference participants. The
conference would "first" dis-
cuss Laos, but it is clear that
the Chinese hope to enlarge any
talks to cover South Vietnam
and Cambodia as well.
The British favor "consulta-
tions" in Vientiane rather than
a full-scale conference, but-they
believe a conference may ulti-
mately be necessary. They are
likely, however, to support Pre-
mier Souvanna's demand that the
Pathet Lao give up recent gains
and accept a cease-fire prior
to any conference.
In Vientiane, there are
signs of mounting rightist dis-
satisfaction with Souvanna's
coalition. Rightist leaders
have called for "further im-
provements" in the government
and for the withdrawal from
Laos of the "useless" Inter-
national Control Commission.
One key figure expressed his
opposition to another Geneva
conference and called instead
for military action against
the Communists.
SECRET
28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
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SPLIT IN INDIAN COMMUNIST PARTY
The split within the Com-
munist Party of India (CPI) con-
tinues to deepen. The anti-
Soviet "leftists" advocate un-
compromising opposition to the
ruling Congress Party, while the
pro-Soviet "rightists" would
collaborate to some degree.
Each CPI faction will hold an
important national-level meeting
in early June, at which time the
lines of the split will prob-
ably become more pronounced.
Since the party suspended
32 leading "leftists" and
'"centrists" on 12 April, the
militant'7eftists"--who control
30 to 40 percent of the 160,000
members--have made steady prog-
ress in developing support with-
in the party and setting up
their own organizations in the
11 most important of India's 16
states.
The death of Nehru opens
a transition period in Indian
affairs that may revive long-
dormant tensions. However, his
physical decline had been evi-
dent for some time even before
his first stroke last January,
and moves were under way to ad-
just responsibilities within
28 May 64
Unlike the "rightists,'"
whose politics are legal and
conventional, the "leftists"
tend to emphasize illegal and
potentially insurrectionary
activities. Although not under
Chinese Communist direction,
many have a strong pro-Chinese
ideological bias.
Many CPI leaders are will-
ing to see the split become
final, but no one is eager to
accept the responsibility for
formalizing it. The decision
of a small but prestigious
group of still uncommitted
centrists who now oppose a for-
mal split may determine whether
the "leftists" will succeed in
establishing an effective organ-
zation. These centrists hope
to keep the party together until
the scheduled party congress in
September.
the Congress Part
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fir. w
Kokkina
Kormak 'Qmblos
'Larnaca
Rizokar
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ARMS STOCKPILING PORTENDS NEW OUTBREAKS ON CYPRUS
The Greek
Cypriots on 22 May transported
51 truckloads of small arms
from the port of Limassol to
Nicosia, according to General
Gyani, commander of the UN forces
in Cyprus. The US ambassador
assumes these are Soviet arms,
shipped via the UAR.
Gyani and UN political ad-
viser Galo Plaza both claim that
unless their powers are strength-
ened to permit them to prevent
new arms from entering Cyprus,
the situation will become "well-
nigh hopeless." Galo Plaza is
in New York reporting to Secre-
tary General Thant and presum-
ably will urge him to request
the additional authority from the
Security Council. The council
is to meet in June to consider
extending the original three-
month mandate for the UN Force.
A new split meanwhile ap-
pears to be developing within
the Greek Cypriot leadership
over plans to conscript a 25,-
000-man national guard. Maka-
rios has insisted that the con-
scription bill also authorize
private individuals to maintain
their own armed groups. This
move is opposed by Minister of
Interior Georkatzis, national
guard commander Karagiannis,
former underground leader Grivas
in Athens, and by the Greek Gov-
ernment. All had approved con-
scription rather than voluntary
recruitment, believing this
would be a way to establish cen-
tralized anti-Communist control
over the various Greek Cypriot
armed groups.
Makarios probably looks to
certain private armed bands to
prevent a threat to his position
from developing within the Greek
Cypriot community. One group
he apparently would rely on is
the 600-man force of Communists 25X1
and leftists armed and con-
trolled by his close associate
Vasos Lyssarides.
SECRET
28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
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ALGERIAN REGIME FACES GROWING DISSATISFACTION
Algerian President Ahmed
Ben Bella, lionized during his
three-week visit to the USSR,
Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia,
returned home last week to face
growing dissatisfaction with
his regime's domestic accomplish-
ments.
Despite frantic efforts
of the National Liberation Front
(FLN) to give him an enthusiastic
welcome, his reception in Al-
giers on 17 May was apathetic.
A major football contest proved
a superior drawing card, and wel-
coming crowds consisted largely
of scattered groups of women
and children. Ben Bella's popu-
larity has eroded as grumbling
has increased over massive un-
employment--nearly half of the
country's labor force of 3 mil-
lion.
Action might be taken to
oust Ben Bella, but several fac-
tors militate against any im-
mediate move. One major dif-
ficulty is the divergence of in-
terests and outlooks among his
principal opponents. Even if
some moved soon, they probably
would not have broad support or
be well coordinated with other
groups.
Ben Bella is a shrewd pol-
itician, aware of his opposi-
tion's potential. During the
recent FLN congress he under-
mined his foes and gained the
unanimous support of the more
than 1,500 delegates. He dis-
armed some of his potential
enemies in the Algerian Army by
assuring that a number of of-
ficers were selected for the
party's central committee and
political bureau. Within his
group he achieved an uneasy bal-
ance among the pro- and anti-
Boumedienne factions. Although
Boumedienne is probably his
chief eventual rival, both men
need each other at the present
time.
This political infighting
is eroding Ben Bella's position,
however, because it leads him
to postpone action on Algeria's
pressing economic problems,
thereby compounding popular dis-
satisfaction. Ben Bella Is fail-
ure to reorganize his govern-
ment as expected after the FLN
congress is an indication of
his inability to move decisively
at the present time.
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28 May 64
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Nw~
SECRET
Nigeria is still embroiled
in a bitter controversy touched
off by the release last February
of the results of a politically
important census. The Eastern
Region now has sought a court
order to restrain the federal
government from using the census
to allocate seats in the national
legislature for the elections due
this year. This move may re-
inflame passions and could delay
the elections.
According to the new census,
the Northern Region still has
over 50 percent of the country's
population and thus remains en-
titled to a majority of seats in
the federal parliament. Northern
leaders therefore maintain that
the census issue is closed and
have violently denounced the
Eastern Region government's move
to the courts. Eastern Region
Premier Okpara, however, claims
that the North inflated its
figures. He has implied that his
party, the National Convention of
Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), might
boycott the federal elections if
the census is used to delimit
constituencies. The leadership
of the NCNC, which is junior
partner in the present federal
coalition government, had counted
on the new population count to
break the hold of the conserva-
tive Northern People's Congress
(NPC) over the federal machinery.
The dispute over the census
has increased the tension which
has always existed between the
NPC and the NCNC despite their
uneasy alliance, and it now ap-
pears that the governing coali-
tion may come apart .
Meanwhile, there are in-
dications that Nigeria's trade
unions may again press the govern-
ment to recommend higher wages.
After a successful general strike
last September, a wage review
commission was established and
has submitted its report to the
government. The unions are de-
manding publication of the report,
which is believed to favor their
demands. Some of the unionists
charge that the government is
"revising" the report, and they
threaten action if its release
is delayed much lon er. 25X1
SECRET
28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
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1%W *00
Province boundary
National capital
Province capital
MAI-NDOMBE
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KIWI R
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NORTHERN RHODESIA
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*001 X31! UIU!11 = '
WW_
CONGO SECURITY SITUATION DETERIORATING AGAIN
The situation in the Kivu
region of the eastern Congo has
rapidly deteriorated in the last
two weeks, but may improve tem-
porarily if UN troops arrive.
Congo National Army (ANC)
units in the province of Kivu
Central are for the most part
leaderless, disorganized, and
unwilling to engage the rebels
The
rebels, who until recently have
been primitively armed, now have
captured a considerable quantity
of modern rifles and automatic
weapons from government soldiers,
and have seized vehicles from
Europeans in the area.
On 25 May Premier Adoula
asked UN officials to send UN
troops, principally Nigerians
to Kivu.
the premier may be having second
thoughts. His apparent hesi-
tancy probably reflects army
chief General Mobutu's well-
known aversion to calling on the
UN for assistance. If the Ni-
gerians are sent, they would
probably be able to save the
principal city, Bukavu, which
is not yet directly threatened
by the insurgents.
Other UN troops in the Congo
are in the process of a with-
drawal scheduled to be completed
by 6 June. The single battalion
of Nigerians will probably stay
at least until the end of June,
and possibly afterward if the
Congolese and Nigerian governments
can reach a bilateral agreement.
The inept performance of
the ANC in Kivu and the sight
of departing UN soldiers appear
to be encouraging potential in-
surgents in other areas of the
Congo.
The ANC has almost no more
effective manpower upon which it
can draw to combat new outbreaks.
Reserves in Katanga have already
been used up, partly to reinforce
Kivu, and partly to shore up
government forces in Kwilu, where
the six-month-old Mulele rebel-
lion continues to smolder. Some
relatively good troops are still
available in Stanleyville and
Leopoldville, but any substantial
movement of "elite" troops out 25X1
of garrison would endanger the
security of these cities.
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THE ITALIAN SOCIALISTS AND THE CHINA-RECOGNITION ISSUE
Senator Paolo Vittorelli,
the Italian Socialist Party's
(PSI) principal foreign affairs
expert, now is visiting Commu-
nist China in a move intended
to reinforce that party's posi-
tion in relation to the politi-
cal left. It may, however, have
an unsettling effect on domestic
politics by reopening the ques-
tion of Italian recognition of
Peiping.
Vittorelli's week-long trip
is intended to counter criticism
leveled against his party's
China policy by the Italian Com-
munist Party and by the dissi-
dent Socialists (PSIUP). The
PSI became vulnerable to such
attacks in February when it
closed ranks with its coalition
partners in the center-left gov-
ernment to defeat a PSIUP par-
liamentary motion calling for
early recognition. This was
done despite the fact that the
PSI has long favored recogniz-
ing Peiping.
The PSI probably has no
illusions that Vittorelli's trip
will make any significant im-
pression on Chinese policies to-
ward Italy and the West. The
party nevertheless feels that
the initiative will provide use-
ful "first-hand knowledge" in
justifying to its members its
future policy on recognition.
The PSI also thinks the trip
28 May 64
Europe
will blunt Communist and PSIUP
attacks against the party on
this issue as well as perhaps
deepen the internal divisions
in the Communist Party caused
by the Sino-Soviet split.
Although the government
holds that Vittorelli's trip
is solely a PSI venture, Foreign
Minister Saragat has commented
that such "exploratory" visits
by individuals might be useful
so long as the government is not
involved. Other coalition lead-
ers probably approve the visit
as a means of strengthening the
PSI against the Communists and
the PSIUP.
The government can be ex-
pected to stand its ground should
Vittorelli's visit set off a po-
litical debate leading to renewed
pressures for recognition. In
such a debate, however, the gov-
ernment would not only be attacked
by the. opposition parties of both
the left and the right,. but the
situation would also be exploited
by elements within the coalition
framework who have never been sym-
pathetic to the center-left for-
mula.
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STATUS OF THE MULTILATERAL FORCE DISCUSSIONS
The eight nations partici-
pating in the current multi-
lateral force (MLF) discussions
in Paris are proceeding with
their consideration of the main
issues involved in drawing up
a charter for the force, which
the US hopes will be ready for
signature by the end of the
year. By that time Britain's
elections will be over, yet
sufficient time would remain
to get the measure through West
Germany's parliament before that
country's elections in 1965.
Still unresolved, however, is
the basic question of how the
political decision will be taken
to fire the MLF's weapons.
Members of the group are
also considering how best to
handle a new UK proposal that
the multilateral principle be
extended to land-based and air-
borne nuclear deterrents. The
British assert that their sug-
gestion--applicable to the TSR-2
or TFX aircraft as well as the
Pershing and other land-based
missiles--is intended for paral-
lel study and not as a substi-
tute for the seaborne Polaris
force.
The political situation
in Italy is F------] uncertain. 25X1
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SECRET
Foreign Minister Saragat told Am-
bassador Reinhardt last week that
both he and Prime Minister Moro
favored the proposed schedule,
but he recommended that the ques-
tion of the government's ability
to meet it be referred to Moro.
Saragat is presumably uncertain
as to the reaction of the Social-
ists, who have moved from support
to opposition of the MLF. The
uncertainty lies in whether the
Socialist Party, as a member of
the government coalition, will
find it politically feasible to
support the project when the time
comes to sign.
Meanwhile, the North Atlantic
Council (NAC) has submitted to
NATO members for adoption a newly
drafted agreement on the exchange
of nuclear weapons information.
This agreement, another part of
the effort to broaden participa-
tion in NATO's nuclear -deterrent,
establishes machinery by which
the US can disseminate more types
of nuclear information than it has
in the past, to a larger number
of recipients. Most of the Allies
will probably welcome the agree-
ment, although they are likely to
entertain reservations on how
quickly or completely it will be
implemented.
Discussions on the new ar-
rangement began last summer but
were delayed when France objected
to giving Secretary General Stik-
ker extensive powers over secu-
rity clearances. The French also
objected to phrasing which de-
scribed a bilateral,US-NATO ar-
rangement and called instead for
wording which would provide for the
exchange of information by all mem-
bers. Early last month, the French
agreed to language placing the Sec-
retary General's security functions
under the authority of the NAC, and
withdrew their other objection.
Luxembourg: National elec-
tions set for 7 June may result
in a new line-up in the govern-
ment, presently a two-party coali-
tion of the Christian Socialists
and the right-win anticlerical
Democratic Part .
trends over the past several years
indicate that the Socialists will
pick up enough seats in parlia-
ment to force their inclusion in
the government.
In the present parliament
elected in 1959, the Christian
Socialists hold 21 seats, the
Democrats 11, and the Socialists
17. Three others belong to the
Communists, who polled 9 percent
of the vote, a fairly large bloc
by West European standards out-
side of France and Italy..
A government including the
Socialists would not change Lux-
embourg's foreign policy in gen- 25X1
eral but would be likely to re-
verse the rising trend of Ameri-
can business investment.
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SECRET
Western Hemisphere
CUBA STILL PUSHING CAMPAIGN AGAINST US OVERFLIGHTS
The Cubans intend to main-
tain and probably to expand
their diplomatic and propaganda
offensive against the US in the
coming months, but apparently
do not expect a solution to the
overflight issue until after the
US presidential election.
Meanwhile, high-altitude
photography suggests 25X1
the first signs of relaxation
in Cuba's two-week-old military
alert, the most extensive since
the missile crisis. Raul Castro
explained in a speech of 22 May
that the alert measures had been
dictated by US "military moves"
and Cuban exile activities that
could presage an all-out US at-
tack on Cuba.
SECRET
28 May 64 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY racre 17
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*Mme 1*1W
SO , 100
MILES
45234
i1'1)RNTA
I
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IWO
SECRET
Western Hemisphere
MEXICO AND THE COLORADO RIVER SALINITY PROBLEM
Resentment is rising rap-
idly in Mexico over the unre-
solved problem of the Colorado
River's salinity, which has
been,causing ever-increasing
damage to Mexican crops and
agricultural land. The Mexicans
are particularly vexed by the
notion that there is no solu-
tion in sight.
The salinity problem is
due mainly to the backwash from
irrigation and to the flushing
out of underground salt depos-
its in the Welton-Mohawk area
of southwestern Arizona. Water
used for these purposes is
pumped into the Gila River,
which, in turn, flows into the
Colorado, raising its salt con-
tent to unusually high levels.
Since 1961, when the matter
became a major issue between
Mexico and the US, the Mexican
Government has sought to keep
the lid on outbursts of anti-
US sentiment over this issue.
A recent series of public pro-
tests, however, suggests that
the government now sees little
hope for an early resolution
of the problem, and hence is
less concerned about keeping the
people in line. The US ambas-
sador is concerned that there
may be worse outbreaks in the
immediate future as tensions
are rising in the current polit-
ical campaign.
Recent advertisements in
Mexico City dailies have been
highly critical of the US on
the salinity problem, and have
called for immediate action to
alleviate it. Moreover, resi-
dents of the Mexicali Valley,
who are directly affected by
the damaging water, are showing
themselves to be susceptible
to leftist agitators.
The US consul in Mexicali
reports that the Committee for
the Defense of the Mexicali
Valley--in which the CCI is
gaining increasing influence--
staged an hour-long protest
demonstration in front of the
consulate on 14 May. About 400
persons consisting of farmers,
teachers, bankers, merchants,
and members of the Baja Cali-
fornia state legislature partici-
pated. The demonstrators have
promised weekly protests until
their grievances are met.
Latest reports from the
valley indicate that the CCI
recently has been pressuring
the defense committee to call
for a general strike aimed at
forcing the government to seek
an immediate solution.
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w
Charity
George(owr
WEST! EASST.
Bartica! DEZvfFgRmsetdam`
n vT
M k/enzie
. -1
' URAB
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SECRET
Western Hemisphere
Racial violence between
British Guiana's Negro and East
Indian communities is spread-
ing despite the declaration of
a state of emergency and the
deployment of British troops
to trouble spots. More than
25 persons have been killed so
far, and property damage prob-
ably exceeds $3 million.
Terrorism and arson con-
tinued on the coast east and
west of Georgetown last week
end, and new disturbances
erupted in the Mackenzie area
60 miles upriver from the capi-
tal on Monday. Several persons
were killed and numerous houses
destroyed in that overwhelm-
ingly Negro area before a pla-
toon of British troops was
flown in and several hundred
East Indians evacuated.
British troops now are
patrolling in Georgetown and
have replaced the police in the
West Demerara region. The
arrival of an additional com-
pany on 24 May raised the total
number of British troops de-
ployed in the colony to 716.
Some 400 more troops are stand-
ing by on 24-hour alert in
Northern Ireland.
More violence seems likely,
however, because of the limited
nature of the emergency regula-
tions. Unlike those which fol-
lowed previous disturbances, the
governor does not have the power
to detain or restrict persons
without warrant, so that terror-
ists in the governing party's
youth organization can continue
to move about freely. Other
provisions will enable the gov-
ernment to favor its East Indian 25X1
supporters.
it is unclear
how sincere ramie Jagan govern-
ment is cooperating to maintain
security. Indeed, the party may
have provoked the Mackenzie
riots as well as the violence
in the sugar-cane areas--all of
which tends to solidify East In-
dians behind Jagan on racial
grounds. Electoral registration
has been proceeding well even in
the strife-torn West Demerara re-
gion, however.
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SECRET
INTERIM STATUS REPORT ON BRAZILIAN REVOLUTION
Brazil's new leaders as-
sert that their ouster of the
Goulart regime in April ushered
in a revolution, and was not
merely a military coup d'etat.
The Castello Branco government's
sweeping reform program lends
credibility to this claim.
The initial assessment by
top US officials in Brazil is
that the revolution's chances
of success are reasonably good.
They believe the government can
work toward its main goals--
economic stability, honesty and
efficiency in government, and
a drastic reduction of Communist
influence--without becoming
authoritarian. They also look
for the government to keep up
its momentum in implementing
its program.
To a large degree, however,
success of the revolution will
depend on President Castello
Branco's ability to continue
guiding it along the moderate
course he has chosen so far.
Rumblings of dissent from some
military and civilian elements
already indicate this will be
difficult.
A leading controversial
question centers on the problem
of how thoroughly the federal,
state, and local governments
should be purged of officeholders
tainted by corruption or leftist
sympathies. The administration
seems anxious to keep the purge
Western Hemisphere
from getting out of hand. There
are, for example, indications
that Governor Mauro Borges of
the state of Goias, for some time
under the threat of removal by
military officials for refusing
to replace certain members of his
administration, may yet retain
his office. Also, an official of
the president's own military staff
was fired recently for issuing
an unauthorized public protest
against a Rio newspaper editorial
urging moderation in the Borges
matter.
Another problem centers
around the presidential election
now set for October 1965. While
no decision appears near, the
government is showing growing
sensitivity to charges that it is
a miliary dictatorship. The mili-
tary reportedly is adamant that
presidential candidate and former
president Juscelino Kubitschek--
whom it regards as anathema to
the ideals of the revolution--
somehow be barred from the presi-
dency.
It is still too early to
evaluate the regime's performance
in introducing economic and social
reform, but there seems to be
no lack of determination to move
ahead with a wide range of legis-
lative projects in all these
fields. Preliminary indications
suggest that the government is
approaching the country's problems
in these areas more realistically
than its predecessors.
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Western Hemisphere
Guatemala: The election
of an 80-member constituent as-
sembly was held on schedule
last Sunday, but there was lit-
tle enthusiasm for choosing be-
tween two parties that ran iden-
tical slates-of government-ap-
proved candidates. Although
the two parties--the Revolution-
ary Party (PR) and the National
Liberation Movement (MLN)--
actively campaigned and the gov-
ernment issued reminders that
abstention is illegal, only
about 50,percent of the voters
cast ballots. Also, excluded
opposition groups were success-
ful in their call for voters
to void their ballots in pro-
test against the government's
policy of "guided democracy";
early returns showed that over
one third of the ballots had
been spoiled.
Preliminary returns indi-
cate that the MLN has captured
a substantially larger portion
of the vote, a victory which 25X1
presumably will give its candi-
date an advantage in a future
presidential election.
Bolivia: President Paz
Estenssoro's opponents are mak-
ing a last-ditch effort to
force postponement of Sunday's
national elections. President
Paz, however, remains confident
of his political strength and
is refusing to yield to their
demands.
All the major opposition
parties have withdrawn their
candidates from the presidential
and vice-presidential race, and
are urging their followers to
boycott the polls. Opposition
leaders, frustrated by their
inability to prevent Paz' re-
election, now may turn to armed
insurrection
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