SPECIAL REPORT OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE THE IMPACT OF FRENCH ECONOMIC POLICY ON US INTERESTS

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CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5
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29 March 1963 OCI No. 0273/63A Copy No. 79 OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE THE IMPACT OF FRENCH ECONOMIC POLICY ON US INTERESTS US TREASURY DECLASSIFICATION & RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS ON FILE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY SECRET downgrading and declassification Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5 lqw SECRET THE IMPACT OF FRENCH ECONOMIC POLICY ON US INTERESTS French economic relations with the Common Market and the US are based on intricately in- terwoven policies that are de- signed to achieve De Gaulle's over-all objectives of promoting French national interests and his own pretentions to Conti- nental leadership and of gaining greater West European independ- ence from the US. While he has often expressed disdain for things purely economic, De Gaulle is clearly not above using the the economic weapons at his disposal to attain these broader political ends. Many French decisions on economic policy, however, are motivated strictly by national economic interests. This study attempts to assess the degree to which French economic policy in three specific areas differs from US interests, and the de- gree to which it may be moti- vatedby political rather than economic considerations. The three areas discussed concern the French attitude relative to (1) the thrust and tempo of the EEC's internal development, (2) the scope and timing of negotiations with the US under the US Trade Expansion Act, and (3) the approach to and solution of the American balance-of-pay- ments difficulties. Internal EEC Development Since rejecting Britain's bid for membership in the Com- mon Market, Paris has faced threats by other EEC members of a slowdown in internal EEC development. The French in turn have warned that unless the grouping's internal prog- ress continues as scheduled in the basic Treaty of Rome and other EEC agreements, the whole future of the Common Market will be brought into question. Paris has also threatened to veto EEC participation in the "Kennedy round" of tariff-cutting negoti- ations under the Trade Expansion Act. Defining what it means by internal progress, the French Government has indicated that the next step toward a full customs union of the Common Mar- ket countries must take place as scheduled on 1 July 1963. In addition, agreement must be reached on unsettled portions of the EEC's common agricultural policy. Finally, the other EEC members must stop blocking final ratification of the agreement continuing the association of former African colonies with the EEC. De Gaulle is aware that France's EEC partners all be- lieve the Common Market has given them a degree of prosperity and political influence which they would not otherwise have, and that their enthusiasm for the EEC generally runs high. lie also recognizes that they are unsure of his attitude to- ward the EEC. They remember the reports of his lack of enthusiasm for the Common Mar- ket when it began functioning SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 NW SECRET i~ in 1958, as well as his contin- ued scornful references to its institutions and bureaucrats. France's position on EEC progress therefore derives part- ly from tactical political mo- tives. De Gaulle probably antic- ipates that the other members will not push to a crisis any issue which might give him cause for new opposition to the supra- national bodies established with such toil just over five years ago. An equally important rea- son why France is championing the internal development of the Common Market, however, is eco- nomic self-interest. France under De Gaulle's leadership has consistently pressed harder and more successfully for the internal progress of the EEC than has any other member country, and from 1958 at least until recent weeks, French eco- nomic objectives in this field were clearly in tune with US policy. The US has favored development of a close economic union in Europe as a step to- ward political unification, and has opposed the concept of a looser free trade area without political content. Leaving aside the question of political motivation, France has been America's best ally in fostering this close economic union among the Six. France has always insisted that the Common Market must be more than a cus- toms union limited to industrial goods; that free movement of agricultural produce among mem- ber nations must be included in the EEC's objectives; and that there must be a gradual coordi- nation of internal economic policies as well as trade pol- icies among the member states. When the EEC treaty was negotiated in the mid-1950s, the French often expressed the fear that their industry was generally weaker and less effi- cient than that of most other EEC countries,. particularly West Germany. They believed that their industry stood to suffer in conditions of free competition among the member states. French agricultural output, however, was larger and more efficient than farm production elsewhere in the EEC. The French argued that agriculture must be part-of the Common Market to compensate for whatever losses they might suffer in industry. Under heavy French pressure, the EEC finally agreed in January 1962 on the general shape of and necessary mechanisms for a common agricultural policy. While the effects of this policy, if it were to become increasing- ly protective, could be injuri- ous to US interests, it remains, nevertheless, the most important measure to date in the develop- ment of a true economic union in Western Europe. French insistence on the coordination of economic policies in fields other than trade has SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 `''r SECRET also been favored by the US in the interest of closer economic integration. France has been motivated by the belief that its industries could become competitive with those of other EEC members only if the stat- utes, taxes, and subsidies affecting various sectors of the economy were made uniform throughout the Common Market. The French have always felt that the Common Market made no sense unless production condi- tions in different areas of the market were equalized, in part because they believe their social security and labor costs are higher than those in other member nations. gram have been called "dirigistic" by some, but French by all ob- servers. In sum, French policy has been consistent with that of the US in fostering close eco- nomic integration within the Common Market. French motives for pursuing this policy have sometimes differed from US mo- tives,but are as much economic as political. In any case, French motives are far broader than purely and simply to force the other EEC countries to sup- port France against the "Anglo- Saxons." Trade Negotiations To a greater extent than its partners, France has sent top-flight officials and admin- istrators to man (and dominate) the EEC headquarters in Brussels. Close observers have labeled As a member of the Common Market, France negotiates through the EEC and not directly with the US on trade and tariff problems. The EEC, however, can carry on such negotiations the staff of the EEC's executive under the terms of its founding commission as French in organ- ization, outlook, and manage- ment technique. This staff is recognized as one of the most efficient governmental bureaucracies in existence, and its vitality has been a major factor in the success to date of the Common Market. Last fall, the EEC Com- mission and its staff drew up an "Action Program" of over 100 pages describing in detail measures necessary for contin- ued rapid development of the EEC through 1965. The concepts of economic planning which are evident throughout this pro - treaty only with the unanimous consent of the members. (Be- ginning in January 1.966, issues of this type may be decided by a qualified majority vote.) As already shown, the French Government is trying to use its position on negotiations with the US under the Trade Expansion Act to force further internal progress in the EEC. France may even try to use the US desire for successful trade negotiations as a lever to extract concessions from Washington in other fields. Foreign Minister Couve de Murville recently told President SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 %10 SECRET Hallstein of the EEC Commission that he recognized negotiations under the US Act had to take place, but that "it would not be possible to settle only the one sector of the Atlantic relationship." This may merely mean that France will attempt to broaden the tariff reduction talks to include discussions of measures to bring US economic policies in fields other than trade into line with those of the EEC. It may also mean, however, that France will at- tempt to link forthcoming trade negotiations to such political and military questions as atomic armament in the Atlantic alliance. As in the case of internal EEC developments, however, France's position on the pending trade and tariff talks is far more than an anti-US political maneuver. The French position is based at least equally on economic motives--motives which at present are encouraging policies unfavorable to US in- terests but which have often produced policies desired by the US. sons took a position almost identical to its present one, demanding further internal progress in the EEC before external tariffs were cut. France argued that EEC indus- tries could survive the increased competition they would face from "big" US industries only if the EEC developed its own large internal market more rapidly than originally scheduled. This, it was claimed, would allow the more rapid emergence of big, efficient industries in Europe itself. The 1960-61 external tariff cuts of the EEC were much smaller than those now proposed. France withdrew its opposition to these earlier cuts, however, only when an agreement was reached within the Common Market to speed up both the lowering of the EEC's internal tariffs and the adjustment of national tariffs toward the common ex- ternal tariff. This was another move toward making the Common Market a reality which was instigated by France and sup- ported by the US. French industry has his- torically enjoyed a higher level of protection than has industry in most other Common Market countries, and France has been a reluctant partner in most of the earlier tariff- cutting negotiations during the past 15 years under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. In the last round of such negotiations (in 1960- 61), France for economic rea- France's demands today for further internal progress in the EEC are, if anything, milder than its demands at the time of the 1960-61 tariff cuts. Paris then wanted an acceleration of the schedule for creation of the Common Market, but now is asking only for implementation of measures on which the Six have already reached agreement. This time, however, France clearly faces stronger opposition from within SECRET 4 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Tolle SECRET ido the EEC and has less support from the US. In agricultural trade, the economic interests of France openly clash with those of the US. France desires from the Common Market growing outlets for its increasingly efficient farm production, while the US is striving to maintain its present position as a major supplier of agricul- tural goods to the EEC. Major disruptions are not expected in the markets for over half of the $1.2-billion annual farm exports from the US to the EEC, because the products involved are not grown in volume in the EEC area. But $500 million of the total, in- cluding exports of wheat and flour, feed grains, and poultry products, will face increasing competition from EEC domestic producers whether or not the EEC's common agricultural policy provides higher levels of protection for internal production. The French argument on agriculture is that the EEC's farm policy is and should be moderately protective, and that the US gives its farmers at least equal protection. Europe, the argument runs, should be under no obligation to provide an expanding market for US farm surpluses, which allegedly result from US sup- port programs and other forms of protection. The revolution in mecha- nization and modern farming methods which hit the US a generation ago, producing a tremendous expansion of yields as well as lower costs, has just appeared in Western Europe in the past decade. French discussions of agricultural trade policies often imply that the European lag in this area is an historical accident which has given the US an un- fair share of European markets, and that a change must be ex- pected. France has reacted against the recent US drive to assure continued American access to EEC farm markets by initi- ating a snide propaganda campaign in Europe against US farming and farm trade policies. However, Paris has also come up with positive proposals to help bridge the French- American differences on agricul- ture. Since the EEC's trade in those farm products which are causing difficulty is reg- ulated by support prices and adjustable import levies rather than fixed tariffs, the tariff- cutting provisions of the US Trade Expansion Act are in- applicable. The French have played a leading role in urging that world commodity agreements be formulated for these products, which are important to the national in- comes not only of France and the US, but also of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, and other countries. The main features of such agreements would be arrange- ments to stabilize prices at levels high enough to assure fair incomes to producers, and to hold production down to levels where supply and demand are in balance. Agreements of SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5 SECRET this type have also been sug- gested for some of the basic raw materials and tropical products on which many of the less developed countries depend for their export earnings. World commodity agreements may become a major feature of the negotiations associated with the US Trade Expansion Act. The French have based proposals for such schemes on their ex- perience with their former Af- rican colonies. France has long guaranteed relatively high prices for the output of primary products from these territories, placing at the same time fairly strict controls on the level of production. While recog- nizing the difficulty of negoti- ating and enforcing commodity agreements, the US has publicly accepted them in principle, as have Britain, most other West European nations, and many of the less developed countries. France has also played an important part in efforts to eliminate so-called nontariff barriers to trade in fields other than agriculture. With general US agreement, France has urged that the negotiations on the US trade act should reach agreement on uniform anti- dumping laws, customs valuation regulations, and other procedures which can vitiate the signifi- cance of tariff cuts. France has criticized certain US practices in these areas, and is clearly in a mood to bargain hard on nontariff trade bar- riers, but the motivating force seems to be French economic self- 14 interest rather than political obstructionism. Recent French-US discus s ion of possible financial aid for the US balance of payments is another subject on which questions have been raised as to whether France might be following a deliberately hostile course because of political differences with the US. Faced with a persistent balance-of-payments deficit in recent years, the US has tried various measures, including a drive to expand exports, ef- forts to get certain European countries to increase their procurement of military hard- ware in the US, and requests that others prepay part of their debts to the US incurred in the early postwar period. In addition, the US Treasury has promoted two types of agree- ments with European countries intended to provide further stability for the dollar and to limit at least temporarily the flow of gold from the US. One is the so-called "swap" arrangement whereby the central banks of the major trading pow- ers agree to provide, almost on a moment's notice, certain funds to any one of their number which requests assist- ance to stem a run on its currency. The second type of agreement is an arrangement under which various European countries make medium-term (15-24 months) loans to the US, which then SECRET. Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5 4W : SECRET 140 uses the funds to reduce its balance-of-payments deficit. For the duration of the loan, at least, this eliminates the possibility that the creditor nation will ask for gold to cover that portion of the US deficit paid off by the loan. Loans of this type totaling about $500 million have been made to the US by Italy, Switzerland, and West Germany. France's record of coop- eration in assisting the US in its balance-of-payments difficulties during recent years is as good as that of any other European nation, and better than most. The French Government has made prepayments on its long-term debts to the US of over $400 million, and the French central bank has cooperated fully in the "swap" arrangements out- lined above. In February 1963 a French financial official approached a US Treasury representative in Paris and indicated that France would like to do something to show that monetary cooperation between the two countries was continuing despite the differ- ences in other fields. In the discussions which followed, French representatives at the working level responded favorably to the suggestion that France make a medium-term loan to the US of $100-150 million similar to the previous Italian, Swiss, and German loans. US Under Secretary of the Treasury Roosa was in Paris for other purposes at the end of February, and a meeting was arranged between him and French Finance Minister Giscard d'Estaing. At the meet- ing, the French minister appeared favorably disposed toward the loan but said he wanted to study the proposal further. The first stories which appeared in the Paris press on this question also indicated that the French minister's reaction was favorable. In the next several days, however, other stories suggested that the French Government was dis- turbed because infcrmation on the discussions had been leaked to the press. These later stories intimated that the US side had publicized the discussions in order to influence the French decision and make it more diffi- cult for Paris to refuse to grant the loan. Several recent French press articles have also linked the US "request" for a loan to the problem of US investments in France, which have lately come under increasing criticism. (One of the elements in the US balance-of-payments deficit has been US overseas investments.) The press articles expressed doubt that Paris should help Washington defend the dollar, when this would facilitate further American investments overseas. It was suggested that negotiations on the two subjects might be conducted simultaneously. There the situation stands. The extent to which these press 7 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927A004000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 swo SECRET reports reflect French Govern- ment thinking is unknown. On the official level, the position of the French Government is that the loan is still under consid- eration. In addition, France did agree in early March 1963 to a doubling of the "swap" arrangement between the Bank of France and the American Federal Reserve from $50 to $100 million. Although less significant than the loan would be, this is still an effort by the French Government in the direction of continued monetary cooperation with the US. The loan itself may also be approved after the unfavorable publicity it has received in Paris dies down. It may be, however, that working level officials of the French Finance Ministry originally went a little too far in their enthusiasm for continued finan- cial cooperation with the US, and are in the process of being politely overruled by the polit- ical level of the government. It is even possible that the purpose of the French initiative was to ascertain whether the US could be drawn into negotiations on the problem of American in- vestments in Europe. SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5 SECRET SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/12 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO04000020003-5