CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0
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July 9, 1959
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SUMMARY
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Approved For+~~ease 2005/03/15 :CIA-RDP79-00927U2300080~1~ :~: CONFIDENTIAL (CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY DATE:( REVIEWER NCXT f~EVtGNI UA"t'E: AUTIi: R 7G-2 a R~~4ASSll=tea GU1S8. CNANGEI) TO: T, COPY N0. 56 OCI N0~ 3528/59 9 July 1959 1~i f~}/~~V,QE (N GLASS. ~] CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY I' I OFFICE OF CURRENT Ii~ITELLIGENCE CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 25X1 State Department review completed Approved For Release 2005/03/15 :CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 Approved Fo~elease 2005/03/15 :CIA-RDP79-009002300080001-0 THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF TFiE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ]ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 7!~4, THE TRANSMIS- SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH I1J ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. The Current Intelligence Weekly Summary has been prepared primarily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does not represent a complete coverage of all current situations. Comments and conclusions represent the immediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence. Approved For Release 2005/03/15 :CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 S~CttE"l~ Approved Forlease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00922300080001-0 CC}NFIDENTIAL CURRENT INTELLIGENCE 'WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 19.59 T H E W E E K I N B R I E F QF IMMEDIATE. Il!TTEREST 25X1 In Iran, pressures are growing far moves to improve relations with the Soviet Union, although the Shah appar- ently still holds to his firm policy. Israeli Prime Minister Ben-Gurion, having forced left-wing critics out of his cabinet, now heads a caretaker government, pending elections next fall, Yemeni Crown Prince Badr's growing reliance on Egyptian sup o new outbrea EAST-WEST NEGOTIATIONS Page 5 Pronouncements by Soviet leaders since the foreign ministers' conference recessed suggesi~ that Gromyko will return to Geneva with instructions to make a serious effort to obtain at least agreement iti principle on the main elements of an interim Berlin sei;tlement which could be referred to a summit meeting far final approval, The Soviet leaders' minimum objective apparently will be CQ~IDENTIAL w THE .CARIBBEAN SITUATION , Page 1 The Cuban and Venezuelan governments have-not aban- doned their determination to oust thE~ Trujillo dictator- ship in the Dominican Republic and are probably still plotting against the Somoza regime ii- Nicaragua. There are persistent indications that Haitian exiles in Cuba are being pressed to launch an attaci: on the Duvalier regime in Haiti, apparently as part of Castro's strategy 25X1 to open a new front against Trujillo, In dealing with the problems posed by Trujillo's changes of intervention the OAS faces its most critical test to date. MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS , , , ,, Page 3 Iraqi Prime Minister Qasim continues to oppose local Communist demands, and the Comrr~unists may try to stage major demonstrations to bolster their political influence, Nevertheless the Iraqi Ge~vernment's relations with the USSR remain close, and more Soviet materiel is being delivered. At the same time, Qasim has responded to the British arms aid offer by ordering jet light bombers, The National Union elections held this week in the UAR were aimed in part at reducing Baathist influence in Syria, 25X1 25X1 i Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 THE WEEK IN BR'.IEF Approved ForJease 2005/Oi~RDP79-00927b2300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 25X1 Part I (continued) to obtain new arrangements which, in their view, would supersede the postwar agreements on which existing Allied rights in Berlin are based and be the point of departure for future negotiatiot;s concerning the presence of the Allies in Berlin. The USSR will also 'hope to win agree- ment to the creation of an all-German ing of some mess- halls in South China--constitutes a significant admission of failure to obtain peasant comaliance with a major re- gime program, TAIWAN STRAIT , Page The engagement on 5 July between Chinese Nationalist and Communist fighter aircraft was probably precipitated by Nationalist action and appears to have been an isolated incident. Latest Chinese Nationalist claims are that one MIG was shot down over the mainland ands one crashed in the water. Communist alternate-day shelling of the offshore SOVIET CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING Page 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Soviet central committee meeting from 24 to 29 June set forth an extremely comprehensive program for drawing up detailed plans for the mechanization and automation of industry .during the Seven-Year Plan (1959- 1965). Widespread mechanization and autamation is neces- sary if the goal of an 80-percent increase in industrial production in the plan period is to be achieved, Khrush- chev's tough speech on the last day revealed impatience with a number of deficiencies in the Soviet economy which, if they remain uncorrected might threaten his economic 25X1 program. ~~CR~T ii Approved For Releas0~5a~1~- Jg79-00927A002300080001-0 25X1 SECRET Approved Fo~,~lease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009202300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 PART II (continued) USSR CHANGES POLICY~ON GRANT AID , , , Page 5 The USSR, competing directly with Western aid in underdeveloped areas, has relaxed its policy against grants. Moscow apparently was induced to extend its first mayor grant to ensure the primacy of its position in Afghanistan, where the United States continued its aid program by grants following Kabul's refusal in late 195? to accept further loans, The USSR probably will continue to promote chiefly loans, which will require economic ties during the repayment period as well as during the implementation of the aid program. SOVIET ASSISTANCE TO INDIA AUGMENTED Page 8 In negotiations last month with a high-level Indian mission, the USSR committed itself to provide additional aid for the industrial development of India, Most of the items discussed--worth about $300,000,000--either had been offered earlier by Moscow or are for further work on projects already agreed on, Soviet assistance, still relatively small compared to free world aid to India, is extended primarily-far key government-awned industrial enterprises--petroleum steel and heavy machinery indus- tries. SITUATION IN KERALA STATE , , , Page 7 Prime Minister Nehru apparently ~~nticipates that the Indian national government will be forced by mid-August to intervene in the conflict between the Communist and o osition rou s in Kerala Stat 25X1 25X1 THE SITUATION IN CEYLON . Page 8 Prime Minister Bandaranaike's government on 8 July survived its first test in the Ceylons~se parliament since leftist members of the coalition withcirew two months ago, Bandaranaike thus has time for further maneuvering, but remains in a precarious position. Hi.s one-man working majority voted against the censure moi;ion, while several opposition members abstained, apparent;ly reluctant to bring down the government and force nE~w elections at this time, The firm action taken by the government in the past few days to counter leftist stril~:e activity appears to have blunted the threat to Bandaranaike' position from this direction.. SECRET 25X1 iii Approved For Release ~/ ~I~--BA:IEF00927A002300080001-0 Approved Forlease 2005/~~`'RDP79-0092702300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEIEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 PART II continued) INDONESIAN CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE . , , Page 9 President Sukarno.?s reinstatement of the 1945 consti- tution on 5 July provides a semblance of legality for actions he has already taken toward "guided demacracy" and paves the way for continued direct presidential government. The change in constitution does not provide any ready-made solutions to Indonesia?.a chronic difficul- ties, nor does it indicate that Sukarno will make a deter- mined new effort to cppe with the problems of a growing Communist party9 continuing insurgent activities and a deteriorating economy, 25X1 INTERNAL DISPUTE IN RULING MALAYAN PAR7PY , Page 1t3 Serious conflict may be develapin~; between Malay and Chinese elements in the ruling All~.ance party of Malaya over the apportionment of candidates for the 19 August general elections, While an open split will probably be avoided at least until aftE~r the elections, the situation points up the serious di]'_emma faced by the Alliance on race relations, This ~~roblem could ultimately destroy the organization and with it olit- ical stability in Malaya, 25X1 CAMEROUN , , Page 11 Increased terrorism and an outbreak of labor disor- ders in Cameroun are in prospect for this French trust territory within the next few months. Exiled nationalist leaders? who are probably behind this agitation, are eager to discredit the moderate pro-French government and-focus world attention on Cameroun in an effort to have the United Nations call for new elections before ndependence? scheduled for January 1960, MOROCCO STRENGTHENING TIES WITH UAR , , Page 12 Moroccan Premier Ibrahim?s recent 12-day visit to the UAR provides the latest manifestation of Rabat?s desire to strengthen ties with Cairo. Plans for cooper- ation in various fields? including the military, have been discussed and in some cases worked out? and addi- tional visits are scheduled by top Moroccan and UAR officials, This new orientation is likely to strengthen Rabat?s devotion to its nonalignment policy and reinforce its determination to secure the early evacuation of French, Spanish, and American forces. ~E~kET 25X1 25X1 25X6 iv Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 THE WEEK I N BRI REF SECRE T Approved Foe,lease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00922300080001-0 9 July 1959 PART II (continued) 25X6 THE FRENCH COMMUNIST PARTY'S 15TH CONGRESS Page 13 The French Communist party devoted its long-postponed 15th party Congress from 24 to 28 June largely to an effort to refurbish its public image as the leading ele- ment of responsible opposition to De Gaulle. It appealed for a united front with the non-Communist left and center. The party seems to expect little impr wement in its posi- tion in the near future but to be waiting in the hope that a general disillusionment with the De Gaulle regime will set in. Its most promising inst:rvment for widening. its appeal appears to be the Communist-led General Confeder- ation of Labor, which has recently en?joyed some coo era- , tion from free unions in token strikers. 25X1 PRESSURE FOR REVISING US - BRITISH WEST INDIES BASE AGREEMENT . Page 14 Additional pressure is building ,up in Trinidad for revision of the 1941 US-UK Caribbean lease agreement. Premier Eric Williams, who has long c~~mpaigned against the local US naval station at Chaguars3mas, has exploited a constitutional dispute with London ever control of the police to press the base issue as well. London wants early talks with the United States on revising the 1941 ARGENTINE CRI SI S EASES _ Page 15 Argentine President Frondizi, by making new assign- ments to several key military posts, leas considerably reduced the revolutionary pressures oi? the past month. This step was paramount among the numerous demands of the armed forces, which had expressed thennselves strongly against military assignments tinged wi'.th political favor- itism as well as on-.the danger of Communist and Peronista influence in the government. Despite having won a respite from the danger of a militar revolt Frondizi still faces serious labor discontent. SECRET 25X1 v Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 THE WEEK I N BA;I EF SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927}02300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 195'9 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES STUDENTS FROM NON=COMMUNIST COUNTRIES IN THE SOVIET BLOC . Page 1 About 3,000 students from the non-Communist world attended institutions of higher learn;ing in the USSR and its European satellites during the 19li8-59 academic. year-- constituting approximately ane sevent~~ of the foreign students in these countries. Bloc scholarship offers are gaining respectabilityy twice as many Soviet offers were accepted in 1958 as in 195?. Wh~sre offers from the West equal those from the USSR, the West is greatly preferred. Attempts to convert the sttudents to Commu- nism meet with limited success and pro-Communist students are often disillusioned. CONTINUING PROBLEMS FOR CYPRUS . . Page 5 Mutual suspicion and hostility between Greek and Turkish Cypriots have again come to the surface, In addition, a rift has developed between Archbishop Makarios, head of the interim Cyprus Government,, and the former Greek Cypriot terroririr commander, General Grivas. Delays in the negotiations on British base riights are contrib- uting to Greek Cypriot suspicions and may make difficult the cooperation necessary after Cypru.~ gains independence in February 1960. Unrealistic populai? expectations re- garding the island?s economic prospecl:s may create serious problems for the new government. THE FUTURE OF THE UN TRUSTEESHIP COUNCIL . With the attainment of independence by a number of trust territories over the next two years, some Western members of the 14-member UN Trusteeship Council=-France, Italy, and possibly New Zealand--will lose their seats as administering powers. The consequent decrease in the membership of the council might encourage the 82-member Fourth (trusteeship) Committee of the General Assembly to seek to take over the activities of the UN in the trusteeship field. In view of the strong anticolonial sentiments of some members, this might result in serious political difficulties for the remaining administering powers, particularly the United States, and Britain. Pre- vailing sentiment in the General Assembly seems to be against ''freezing" the membership of the council at its present level of 14 members, although such a solution will probably be proposed at the forthcoming assembly SECRET Page 8 25X1 25X1 vi Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 THE WEER IN BRIEF Approved Folease 2005~Y:~`~fA-RDP79-009202300080001-0 9 July 1959 SECRET vii Approved For Release 2005/03/15 :CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved For?,lease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009272300080001-0 ~~~ co~~~aEN riAL CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1;159 THE CARIBBEAN ,SITUATION The Cuban and Venezuelan governments have not abandoned their determination to oust the Trujillo dictatorship in the Dominican Republic and may still be plotting against the Somoza regime in Nicaragua. There are persistent indications that Haitian exiles in Cuba are be- ing pressed to launch an attack- on the Duvalier regime in Haiti, apparently as part of Fidel Castro's strategy to open a new front against Trujillo. In deal- ing with the problems posed by Trujillo's charges of interven- tion, the Organization of Ameri- can States (OAS) faces its most critical test to date. The Council of the OAS, which is still studying the The Caribbean Area ?A ~ BAHAMA ~ Havana ~-O~ ~ ISLANDS CU~1a ~''`Z d l ,~ Dominican Republic 9elize British Honduras JAMAIC~ `~- Haiti f~Lndings of its special committee o~~ganized in early June to in- veast igate Nicaraguan charges of foreign involvement~in the abor- tj:ve Nicaraguan rebellion, was presented on 2 July with a for- ms~l Dominican complaint against Cuban and Venezuelan interven- tj.on in the Dominican Republic acid a request for OAS action. Tree OAS is obliged, on the one ha~.nd, to uphold the principle of nonintervention by attempting tcl halt the Cuban and Venezuelan activities; on the other hand, it must give recognition to the very strong sentiment in Latin Amjerica that dictatorships be eliminated from the hemisphere. :~ 'iudad Trujillo ~NFID~NTIA!~. ~ aANTIGUA - ~?GUAGELGUPE 0 Q MAfl11NIQUE 9 DuAflenoos British ~ .Guiana 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 1 of 8 Approved For?elease 2005/0~~~RDP79-009272300080001-0 9 July 1959 The weak Haitian Government is alerted to the danger of an invasion but is virtually defenseless against such an attack.- An at- tack on Haiti would probably provoke Tru,lillo's military in- tervention there in support of the Duvalier regime and bring the Caribbean antagonists closer to open war. Meanwhile, Fidel Castro is facing intensifying unrest on the home front. His deter- mination to push his drastic agrarian reform law has aroused open opposition, even among small landowners, and there is growing concern among informed Cubans over. the activities of Communists--particularly their penetration of the armed forces. Scattered acts of antigovernment terrorism have occurred in the capital, and several groups of armed oppositionists are re- ported active in isolated areas of the country. The govern- meat is arresting many individu- als charged with counterrevolu- tionary activity. In addition, the regime fears an imminent attack by Dominican-supported exiles, who claim to be prepar- ing to attack before the end of July, Indications of a Cuban ef- fort; to develop closer political and trade ties with the Afro- Asialn bloc are evident in the curY~ent trip of Castro's close associate, pro-Communist Ma- ~or "Che" Guevara, to the UAR, India, and at least eight other Afro-Asian countries. Guevara, who made bitterly anti-US com.- ment s while iti the UAR, was given "red.-carpet" treatment by Presi- dent Nasir, There are signs of a left- ist trend in Guatemala, where the weak Ydigoras government re- ceived a setback in the impor- tant 5 July mayoral election in the capital city, wan by a mod- erate leftist. Leftist forces, which received more votes than both rightist candidates combined, are clearly gaining strength, and if the trend continues they could sweep the congressional election scheduled for late this year? S~CR~Z' 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTE;ftEST Page 2 of 8 Approved For,~lease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009272300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS Iraq Tensions between Communists and anti-Communist :nationalists in Iraq are growing as the coun- try approaches the emotional peak of the.14 July celebration of the first anniversary of the revolution, A number of clashes between coffeehouse partisans for each side occurred in Bagh- dad on 4 and 5 July and. security forces were compelled to inter- vene, In a press interview and a speech to the Popular Resist- ance Force on 5 July, Qasim implied that the bulk of the blame for lcactional strife lies on the Communists, and he spe- cifically opposed their new united national front as an im- proper move during what he calls Iraq's "transitional" period. Without naming any specific papers, Qasim also warned the press against disseminating false reports, he s~.id he would be thankful for guidance if he strayed from the "path of truth," but added that he would feel free in turn to give guidance to newspapers which strayed. The military governor gen- eral at the same time made it clear that'.the newspaper the regime` has in m nd is the prin- cipal Communist organ. Mean- while, it appears that the prb- Commumist director of Baghdad radio has been arrested. There has been no sign of a Communist retreat before the growing boldness of the nation- alists PART' I .Although the Communists would seem wiser to avoid a di- rect; trial with Qasim at this stage, fear that their recent loss, of momentum may mark the beginning of a more permanent decline could spur them to try extreme tactics to maintain their .position. Iraq's relations with the USSR remain close, despite Qasim?s quarrel with the local Communists, and deliveries of Soviet military equipment con- ti#~ue. At least three addition- al shiploads of .:aircraft, armored cars,and other equip- ment arrived at $asra in June, and orther shipments probably ~vi].1 arrive ~hi~r~l~. In wtiat he said was an ef- fbrt to bala~lce Iraq's foreign relations, however, Qasim has ordered from Britain 14 Canberra (H-5'7} ,het light bbmbers. This brdeir, a r+~spbnse to n. $ritish arms aid offer o~ lgst spring, was made--according tb the Irat~Ls--in spite bf the much lowe~~ price quoted them for So- viet I~,~-~8 het bombers, one of which has already been seen flying over Baghdad. sECREr Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 . bF I~MED~A`~E ~f~fi$ft$S~' Page 8 of 8 25X1 Approved For;,~lease 2005/0'~~,`jA~'RDP79-00927,02300080001-0 9 July 1959 Effoir.ts by the Nasir regime to re-enlist Baathist support in Iraq could be undercut by the regime's simultaneous ma- neuvers against the Syrian Baath party. In the elections held on S July for the Nation- al Union, the UAR's mass polit- ical organization, one of the ob3ectives in the Syrian region apparently was to reduce the influence of the Baath. With some covert encouragement and overt declarations of neutral- ity from the authorities, Syrian conservatives organized a tem- porary alliance to bring the Baath down, largely succeeding in many areas, The prospect of such a suc- cess was arousing qualms even before the elections, however, since the effect of the Baath's demise would be to leave the field of independent political activity exclusively to the Com- munists and to strengthen the impression that Syria is entire- ly subservient politically to its Egyptian partner, Israel Cairo's most immediately pressing foreign policy problem continues to be the issue of the use of the Suez-Canal by Israeli shipping and shippors. UN Sec- retary Geheral Hammarsk3old dis- cussed the sub,~ect with the Egyptians last week and may have obtained a clarification of the UAR's public position, .as-well as its "effective" policy on the question, Israel's cabinet crisis has run its course, and Prime Minister Ben-Gurion has an- nounced his. intention to take a "working vacation';" He now heads a caretaker cabinet with- out participation either by ma- ~or left- or right-wing minority parties. The conservative Gen- eral Zionists, who backed Ben- Gurion in the confidence vote last week, have said they re- gard the caretaker arrangement as the least of the possible evils, pending elections early- next November, but have de- cli;,ned to participate in the government. The Shah, although continu- ing his firm policy toward the Sov:let Union, faces mounting domestic and foreign pressures to improve relations, Former prime minister and elder states- man Tabatabai, who represents some conservative, neutralist elements, is urging that steps be taken to appease the USSR. Tabatabai believes a good- wila mission should be sent to the USSR immediately to permit Sovilet leaders to save face and enable them to end their hos- t i le; propaganda . He also ad- vocates the signing of a non- aggY~ession pact, believing that thi.~ would cause the USSR to overlook Iran's participation in t;he Baghdad Pact and the bil~~teral defense agreement witY,~ the United States. Tabata- bai, who again may be seeking the premiership, suggests the removal of Prime Minister Egbal as a~ scapegoat for the current d i 1 e:~mma . 25X.1 The Shah could suceum to ese pressures and agree to consider moves to bring about improved relations. Bloc propaganda attacks on the Shah's regime continue at a high level; an 30 June the East German radio broadcast a s~c~~r Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-Q0927A002300080001-0 PART I OF' IMMEbIATE.INTEREST Page 4 of 8 Approved Forlease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927?~A2300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT IN'~ELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 195~~ Tudeh (Communist) party com- muniqu~ in Persian calling for "Death to end hatred for the Shah and his associates." The Yemeni situation re- mains basically unstable, al- though Crown Prince Badr has survived the immediate crisis created by mutinous activit in army units. Libya Prime Minister Kubar, look- ing toward parliamentary elec- tions at the end of the year, is becoming increasingly impa- tient to resume negotiations on the future level of American financial assistance under the Libyan-American base agreement. In initial negotiations last March the Libyan Government aslt,ed for a ma,~or increase in American aid as "runt" for ~'heelus Air Base, as well as for much greater Libyan con- trol over how the money is spent. I~ubar, who is sub,~ect to dismissal at the Whim of King Idriss and who has been steadily criticized bar other gdvernment officials, has been able to hold an to the premiership large-~ ly because of his earlier suc- ce.~~es in increasing British and American aid commitments. He has not Daly been pressing the American ambassador for a resumption of negotiations but 25X1 als~~ has beam encouraging res- sur~e by the Lib an press . 25X1 EAST-WEST NEGOTIAPCIaNS Pronouncements by Soviet leaders since the foreign min- isters' conference recessed suggest that Gromyko will re- turn to Geneva with instrudtions to make ~, sef~io~is effairt tb rsl~- tain ~,t least agreement in prin- ciple on the main elements of an interim Berlin settlement which could be referred to a summit meeting for final ap- proval, Gromyko's negotiating-~tgc.- tics probably will be aimed at achieving two minimum oblec-~ tines im such an agreement. First, to induce the ~Vestera minister to agree to new ar- rangements which, in Moscow's view, would establish a new status for Berlin by superseding PART the postwar, agreements on which exi.~tiag Allied rights- in Ber- 1in~~ are based. Z'Yiis new sta- tus,, in the t7SSR's strategy, wou]Ld ctitistitute the paint of ciep`~~rtii~e fb~ etibse~iieat moires artd ~tegotiations .conceraing'.the t~est:ern positit~s is Bes'Iin. The Soviet leaders probably believe it arould be a mayor step toward tertiiiriating the Allied "occupa- tiar~ regime" acid Would further erodle the Western legal. posi- tio~~, and deteritiiaatiot~ to re- mair~, in Berlih. Z`he second Soviet ob~ec- ti've probably j.s to win Western agreement to the creation of an a11-German committee on a parity basis to discuss expansion of contacts, reunification, and SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 t~F IMMBIi~A~'~ If~T'NkBS~ Page 5 of 8 Approved For,ease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009272300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE YY'EERLY SUMMARY 9 July 19:i9 ?~hg principles of a peace treaty. Such a committee, in Mos-cow's view, would be a mayor advance toward at least de facto Western recognition of the existence of two German states and would enhance the international status of the East German regime. After preliminary maneuver- ing for position, Gramyko may agree ?to adopt bath the Soviet proposals of 10 and 19 June and the Western proposals of 16 June as the basis for negotia- tions. Soviet officials have taken an optimistic line on Geneva prospects, Deputy Foreign ~din- 3:ster Zorin remarked to Ambas- sador Thompson on 2 July that if the West really wanted to resolve the Berlin problem, an agreement could certainly be reached at Geneva. The coun- selor of the Soviet Embassy in Paris privately expressed the belief that the second phase of the conference-would last only two weeks. Gromyko probably will de- velop the line set forth in-his statement on 28 June in which Tie attempted to convey the im- pression that Western rights in West Berlin would not be chal- lenged at-the end of the pro- posed time limit on all-German negotiations and that these rights would be respected during an indefinite period of East- West negotiations. Iiis state- ment was also intended to en- courage the belief that the present system of Soviet con- trols over Allied access to West Berlin would be maintained after the expiration of the time limit. In his efforts to induce they West to agree to an interim BeY~lin settlement on terms fa- vor~able to the USSR, Gromyko may offer concessions on such points as the level of Western "taken" forces in West Berlin and. the inclusion of East Ber- lin in a ban on subversive ac- tivities and on nuclear weapons and. missiles. First Deputy Premier Kozlov has closely adhered to the of- fic:tal Soviet line in his pub- lic and private statements in the United States. Iie has de- clared that a summit meeting would be "very useful for soly- ing ripe international ques- tioris" regardless of the out- comf~ of the foreign ministers' coni'erenee. Re~~etion to German Election There has been no official bloc. reaction to the. West Ger- man presidential election in West Berlin on 1 July, Pravda ternned it a "gross provocation" and the "crowning of Bonn's ob- structionist deeds" which serves to emphasize the urgency of a Berlin settlement, An East German editorial attributed the bloc's failure to take counter- measures to a desire not to jeopardize the success of the Geneva negotiations. SECRET 25X1 PART I Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 OF IMMEDIATE INTE]tEST Page 6 of 8 Approved Forlease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009272300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 Jit1y 195E- Western Attitudes While public morale in West Berlin remains high, political leaders there fear Moscow will be encouraged by Western diver- gencies and concessions to adopt a more intransigent posi- tion when the Geneva conference resumes on 13 July. Berlin leaders feel Bonn's performance during ;the first six weeks at Geneva confirms their belief that the Adenauer government cannot be fully trusted. They see London under domestic pres- sure to convene a~ summit meet- ing at any price, and consider the French "vocal firmness" on Berlin as lacking any real au- thority because of French mili- tary weakness. Believing'that Berlin's fate rests in the hands of the United States, they have become especially alarmed over what they see as "Berlin fatigue" in America. The British press, taking its cue from Prime Minister Macmillan's optimistic stage- meats and from Foreign Office briefings, continues to antici- pate early agreement on holding a summit conference. Recogniz- ing the present deadlock on the Berlin question, British comment increasingly sees the nuclear test bane talks as providing the essential measure of progress to ,justify a meeting of heads of governmeht. Government spokesmen have encouraged the belief that a summit conference might endorse a draft test ban agreement, despite their aware- ness that Paris has underlined its refusal to have this. topic considered.. While the North Atlantic Council discussion on 6 July PART' I seemed to end pressure for. spe- cial NATO foreign ministers' consultations, same uneasiness aver the Western position was revealed, The Dutch and Bel- gia,n delegations stressed the desirability of further infor- mation on the Soviet version of an all-German committee in ord~:er to clarify whether this offered possibilities for agree-~ men:t . There was general empha- sis on the desirability of con- tinuing talks with the Russians, with some representatives opin- ing that it would be necessary under any circumstances to hold a summit meeting. The discus- sions also brought out state- ments that there was a need for further clarification from the USSR regarding the status of Western rights in West Berlin at the expiration of a time limit on all-German negotiations. Geneva Nuclear fialks Soviet delegate Tsarapkin las-fr week sought to bring fur- ther pressure on-the Western pos:tion in the test--cessation negotiations by accusing the Unitted States and Uritain of sta'LYing ~y avoiding a reply to ~Chrushchev's proposal for an annual quota of veto-free inspections; of sites of sus- peci;ed nuclear explosions. He presised the Western delegates for an early answer, asserting that: the nggoitions had made no progress during the last two months since ~hrushchev introduced his proposal, Soviet propagaiada echoed this, theme, charging "United States military quarters" with blocking agreement by raising SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 OF IMMEDIA'T'E 1NT~i~EST ridge ~? of 8 Approved FoR lease 2005/~~~RC.I~;RDP79-0092 A~02300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WE]~KLY SUY~AKY 9 July 1959 obstacles such as "unaccept- able demands about the composi- tion of control-post person- nel and the arbitrary dispatch of inspection teams," At the same time, however, Moscow stressed that the remaining issues are not insoluble and that agreement could be con- cluded quickly if the West will "exert efforts to reach agreed decisionsb" Soviet First Depu- ty Premier Kozlov reportedly took a similar line in Detroit on 7 July, expressing the view that the three nuclear powers are close to an agreement on an :Lnspection system based on Khr~~shchev's proposal for an ann~xal inspection quota. The Technical Working Groixp on the detection and identification of high-altitude exp:Losions has agreed on methods whi;e 2 of lt6 Approved For-lease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-0092702300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT .INTELLIGENCE ~VE~EKLY SUMMARY 9 July 195! In its only cobuuentary on the incident, Peiping on 6 Juiy denied Nationalist claims of five MIGs shot down,.al- though admitting that one~~MIG crashed while making a high- speed dive. Communist odd-day bombardments of the offshgre islands have been light! The Communists, however, have suf- ficient resources in the off- shore islands areas to in- tensify military activity with little or no warn- ing. On 5 and 6 July, Peiping issued the 54th and 55th "seri- ous warnings:," charging that American naval vessels had "in- truded" into Communist-claimed waters -near Pingtan Island and the Paiehuan Islands, The warnings suggest Peiping is particularly anxious at this time to demon- strate American responsibility for continued tension in the Taiwan Strait, As part of their effort to demonstrate leniency toward Nationalist military personnel, the Communists on 30 June re- leas~ed three pilots captured last fall and on 6 July per- mitted ten members of a Nati?nal- ist "intelligence team" to re- turn "to`their families an Taiwan a ~' American officials on Tai- wan :reported on 30 June that the ivationalists, as scheduled, had ~~ompleted the .withdrawal of 15,000 troops from Chinmen Island, leaving an estimated 05,O~0 troops on the Chinmens orga~aized into five infantry divi~~ions, four tank battalions, one artillery group, , and vari ous tamaller units. SOVIET CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING The Soviet central commit- tee meeting from 24 to 29 June set forth an extremely compre- hensive program for drawing up detailed plans for the mechani- zation and automation of indus- try during the Seven-Year Plan (1959-65). In the final reso- lution, which assigned detailed responsibilities to government and party organizations at all levels, 36 separate tasks were enumdrat~d4 Guidance was given for each branch of industry a,s to the 1:echnological processes and improvements that are to be emph~~sized, Reconstruction and. expansion of existing plants are stre~~sed over the building of new plants, Khrushehev?s gen- eral policy of using material ineen~tives rather than coercion is ag;ain appliede prices, wages,, and bonuses are to be amendled so that managers and workers will welcome new machinery--not resist it, as has often been the case. USSR Gosplan was instructed .to work ou1+, together with other organizations, proposals SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PA~tT II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 3 of 16 Approved For~ease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009270,12300080001-0 SECRET' CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY g~~jgY 9 July 1959 USSR: SELECTED TASKS SPECIFIED BY RESOLUTION OF PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE PLENUM, JUNE 1959 ORGANIZATIONS Gosplan USSR State Committee for Automation and Machine Building State Committees of USSR Council of Ministers TASKS standardized regulations for creating, producing, and testing experimental models of new ma- chines and handing them over to series production. COORDINATION AND DEADLINES will see to it that brandies of industry and construction, in agreement with Councils oi' Min- isters of Union Republics, work out and confirm within three months -- Gosplan USSR will work out in conjunction proposals for improving finan- Ministry oP Finance with organizations concerned and cial methods Por introduction submit to the TiSSR Council of Min- of new machines. This would isters by 1 September 1959 involve better allocation of funds and material resources and the. setting of prices which will stimulate the manufacture as well as the use of the new machines. State Committee on Labor and Wages Gosplan USSR Ministry of Finance All-Union Central Council of Trade Unions State Scientific-Technical Committee will prepare jointly wit: Coun- cils of Ministers of Union Re- publics, State Committees of the USSR Council of Min iste~~s, and branches of industry and con- struction and submit to the par- ty central committee and the USSR Council of Ministers by 1 ttovember 1959 - - will work out, together with the State Committee on Automation and Machine 3uilding, the State Com- mittees on industry and construc- tion of the USSR Council of Min- isters, the Councils of Ministers oP the Union Republics, and the sovnarkhozes, and submit to the party central committee and the 7558 Council oP Ministers by 1 De- cember 1959 -- - on the priorities and time lim- its for integrating automation in various national economic branches. These proposals are to be submitted to the central committee and the USSR CounC11 of Ministers before 1 December 1959, Widespread mechanization and automation of Soviet indus- try is necessary if the goal of an 80-percent increase in industrial production in the Seven-Year Plan period is to be achieved. This goal appears feasible, and the detailed work done in preparation for the central committee meeting puts the vital mechanization and automation programs off to a well-ordered start. The recent "socialist competition" pledges to meet goals in five or six instead of seven years were continued at the ~ileaum, and PA9,T I I proposals for establishing eco- nomic stimuli to encourage en- terprises and construction or- ganizations to introduce new technology, and for raising ma- terial incentives of workers to adopt new technology. proposals on the priorities and time limits for carrying out integrated automation in var- ious branches of the national economy. the "appeal" issued by the plenum emphasized fulfillment ahea+d of schedule. In a tough, hard-hitting spassition's intensified agita- tion with repressive police ac- tior~ are likely to touch off serious disturbances, ?-ih-hich cou]'.d cause New Delhi to act prior to mid-August. 25X1 THE S ITUATION I1~T CEYLON Prime Minister Bandara= mike's government on 8 July survived its first test in the Ceylonese ,parliament since left- ist members of the coalition withdrew two months ago. Ban- daranaike thus has time for further maneuvering, but remains in a precarious position. His one-man working majority voted against the censure motion-- which was defeated 54-41--while several opposition members ab- stained, apparent'~,y reluctant to bring down the government and force new elections at this time. The firm action taken by the government in the past few days to counter leftist strike activity also appears to have blunted the threat to Bandaranaike's position from this direction. Opposition groups had united to censure the govern- ment following debate in parlia- ment on the 30 June speech from the throne, which has been wide- ly criticized for its lack of constructive proposals. The Trotskyite Lanka Sama Samar party (LSSP) led.. the attack on Bandaranaike, alleging that his government was corrupt and had forfeited its mandate following the breakup of the coalition. Virtually all other leftist and right-wing elements in the op- position ~oin+~d in the motion disapproving the government's prog:ra~n . Some parliament members, however, apparently decided to abstain or be absent during the vote:, presumably because they SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 NO"~'ES AND C~tM1~ENTTS Pane 8 of 16 25X1 Approved For lease 2005/~R-RDP79-009270 2300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 want t? avoid elections at this time. Conspicuous among these were the three Communists and several Communist sympathizers, who probably fear elections would enable conservative elements to recc-ver considerable strength in parliament. By taking a firm stand in negotiations to end the current Colombo port strike,Ba,nda.ranaike has forced a showdown with the powerful LSSP-led unions which have threatened a general-strike. His parliamentary victory, com- bined with growing public op- position to strike activity, should strengthen his hand in dealing with labor disturbances. Response to the government's recruitment of a 5,000-man ''volunteer" labor force to main- tai.n essential services during strikes has been enthusiastic, with 12,000 persons applying during the past few days. Bandaranaike remains vul- net~;~,ble, however, since pos- sible defections by either left- ist or rightist members of the government party can easily de- pri~ve him of his slender majori- ty. In addition, conservative elements in and out of parlia- men7t who desire an end to Bandaranaike's ineffective rule and early elections may renew the~tr consideration of various plans to seize power through INDONESIAN CONSTITUTIOi~TAL CHANGE President Sukarna's rein- statement of the 1945 constitu- tion on 5 July, part of his ef- fort to bring "guided democracy" to Indonesia, provides a sem- blance of legality for actions he has already taken and paves the way for continued direct presidential government. His earlier attempt to secure the constitution?s re-adoption failed on 2 June when the now-dissolved Constituent Assembly failed to approve the move by the required two-thirds majority. The new presidential cab- inet which ~uas announced in part on 9 July is dominated by technicians and the army. It is again led by the nonparty Dr. Djuanda, who now holds the title of'first minister," since under the constitution Sukarno himself theoretically heads the cabinet . The key posts of finance, defense, and far= eign affairs are held res~aec- tiveiy by Djuanda, Army Chief of Staff General Nasution, and Subandr3.a, who retains the portfolio he held in the former cabinet. The cabinet also includes as e~x officio ministers the chiefs of staff of the three armed forces and three high- rank:ing civil government offi- cials. Yet to be appointed are a number of deputy minis- ters whose political orientation may- alter the complexion of the cabinet. Lt has not been announced whether General Nasu- tion will serve concurrently as army chief of staff and de- fense minister or whether he will resign from the former post. A provisional legislature-- comp~~sed of members of the pres- ent. ~ ;parliament reinforced by regional and'functional" rep- rese>tatives--and a provisional "sup:reme advisory council" are to b~~ created "within the short- est ~oossible time.tT The means of their formation--whether by elections or appointment-=has not Keen specified. The change in constitution does not provide any ready-made solui;ions to Indonesia's chronic diffilcultiES, nor does it indicate that Sukarno will make a determined SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 9 of 16 25X1 Approved For,~lease 2005i~~'I~~~A-RDP79-009202300080001-0 9 July 1959 new effort to cope with the problems of a growing Commu- nist party, continued insurgent activities, and a deteriorating economy. 'The constitution is vaguely written, and until its provisions are spelled out by legislation ar determined by precedent it will lend itself to a flexible, improvised, and highly centralized administra- tion. The army has consistently supported Sukarno's return to the old constitution. It al- readly holds extraordinary pow- ers under the prevailing ''state. of ~!ar," and, with its increased pol3.tical role, it may make fur- ther efforts to curtail the growth and activities of the Communist party. INTERNAL DISPUTE IN RULING MALAYAN PARTY Serious conflict may be developing between Malay and Chinese elements in the ruling Alliance party of Malaya over the apportionment of candidates for the 19 August general elec- tions. The Malayan Chinese As- sociation (MCA), the Chines? component of the Alliance, is demanding 40 of the 104 nomina- tions- in an effort to assure a veto over any unilateral Malay effort to amend the donstitution. While this figure corresponds roughly to the percentage of Chinese in Malaya's population, it far exceeds the proportion of Chinese among the country's registered voters, The MCA also is demanding that the Alliance election mani- festo endorse the principle of school examinations in Chinese until such time as holding them in the official Malay language becomes practical--a concession which might cause a serious ad- verse reaction among Malays. Some prominent MCA leaders are reportedly willing to split the Alliance if the United Malay National Organization (UMNO), the Malay-oriented and dominant organization in the Alliance, fails to agree to MCA demands. While an open split will probably not develop prior to the. general elections, the situ- ation points up the serious dilemma faced by the Alliance an race relations. This problem could ultimately destroy the organization and, with. it, pa- lit'ic;a stability in Malaya. On the one hand, added concessions to the Chinese may become in- creasingly necessary if the MCA is to stay in the Alliance and, at the same time, develop into an effective spokesman for the 37 percent of the population which is Chinese, On .the other hand, concessions to the Chinese are likely to alienate a growing number of Malays. Holding the party together under these conditions is likely to become increasingly diffi-- cult in the face of the stead- ily growing strength of opposi- tion parties whose programs are designed to appeal to a single race, Rule by any party pri- marily concerned with the in- terests of either Chinese ar Malays could easily lead to widespread disorders in Malaya, where intense suspicions already exist between the two races. The first major defeats suffered by the Alliance oc- curred last month when the nar- row, racially oriented Pan- Malayan Islamic party swept two state assembly elec- tions in the predominantly Malay states of Trengganu and Kelantan. ~~CR~T 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMEN'['S Page lO of 16 Approved For lease 20051~~L~~l~-RDP79-009272300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 CAMEROON Incre~,ti?d. terrorism : in :.the first week of July in Cameroun and the threat of serious labor disturbances at the seaport of Douala suggest that nationalist extremists may be initiating disorders in order to discredit the moderate government and to focus world attention on this French trust terr~.tory before it gains independence, ached= uled for January 160. The violence, directed at targets ranging from cafds and stores to a gendarmerie post, has already resulted in the deaths of at lest 13 persons, including six Europeanso The government has announced a state of alert in four areas, armed police patrolled the streets of the capital on 6 July, and Europeans have demanded per- mission to organize ""self- defense groups." The French high commissioner reportedly plans to group all Europeans in one area. and to reinforce Location of recent terrorist actions .~EC'1~ET the .police and gendarmerie with reserve officers and men. Concurrently the Cameroun Government is concerned over the posisibility that there may be a gent~ral and prolonged strike among part, electrical, railroad, and communications workers at Douala; officials allege that the local labor organization is recEaiving financial support from Communists via agents on ships calling at the seaports A suc- cessful strike, however, does not appear likely at this tima~ be,ca.use of the organizational weal!:ness of the labor unions The terrorism and threat of labc-r disturbances may be a des- peratte effort of the extreme nationalist movement, the Union of the Cameroons Population (UPC), to alisrupt the .territory?s econ- omy in order to show the world that the present moderate and pro- French government is incompetent and that new elections are needed before independence. The UPG created serious disorders in Douala in 1955 and subsequently conducted guerrilla war- fare against the govern- ment for two years, Following its mil- - itary defeat last au- tumn, the movement ap- pears to have split ?:. with one faction willing to use legal political means to achieve an ex- treme nationalist pro- gram However, an ex- tremist wing, apparently led by Felix Moumie and composed largely of ex- patriates, carries on antigovernment activi- ties from other African areas., ,particularly Guinea 25X1 PART II Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 11~of 16 Approved Forlease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-0092702300080001-0 SECRE T CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 19~i9 Prodded by the Maumie fac- tion, Guinea and Ghana are seek- ing to obtain backing in the autumn UN General Assembly ses- sion for new Cameroun elections to be held under international supervision. However, there is little international support for a reopening of the Cameroun question--the subject of a re- sumed General Assembly session lasot February and March, MOROCCO STRENGTIiENING TIES WITH UAR Moroccan Premier Ibrahim's 15-27 June visit to the UAR a- gain demonstrates Raba.t's desire to strengthen ties with Cairo-- a desire apparent since April when Crown Prince Moulay Hassan and two Moroccan ministers un- dertook a similar trip.. Previ- ously Morocco had remained rel- atively aloof in its dealings with UAR President Nasir, whose aspirations for hegemony in North Africa were resented by Moroccan authorities. In addition to producing a noticeably warmer attitude to- ward the Nasir regime among the high Moroccan officials directly involved, these visits have .led to wide-ranging discussions and to plans far cooperation. in variP ous fields, Reports circulated at the time of Moulay Hassan's visit indicated that a plan had been drawn up whereby Morocco would buy LIAR arms and send ca- dets to the UAE military academy, A desire to bolster Ibrahim?s domestic prestige also seems to have" .~e~tered ? ..into King- Mohamed V's :decision to send the premier to Cai- ro. Ibrahim, who talked with a,nd lavished public praise on Nasir an several occasions, signed a cultural agreement pro- viding for an exchange of teach- ers, scholastic missions, and sc ient if is personne 1, and for the establishment of new cultur- al centers in both countries. He had also hoped to conclude a new payments agreement, but negotiations are still going on in Rabat. The premier also reportedly urged a reform of the Arab League, with the aim of transforming it into an instrument of general Arab rather than just UAR pol- icy, This objective has in re- cent months stimulated Morocco to take a more active part in league affairs--evidenced asps- cially by its participation with Leb.a,non and Libya in the league's special subcommittee on the Iraq- UAR dispute--and to promote at least a formal reconciliation bet~~-een Tunisia. and the UAR--a seemingly imminent development. Morocco's new orientation toward the UAR and the Arab East promises to be developed further whe> Moulay Hassan returns to the UAR for its 23 July eele- bra~tions and King Mohamed makes a s7tate visit next January. On the USSR's side, its top military man? Vice President Abd al-Hakim Amin?, is scheduled to go to Mo- rocco in November. As a result Morocco's devotion to its non- alignment policy will probably be strengthened, along ~-ith its detf~rmination to secure the early evacuation of all foreign forces and bases in Morocco. These in- clude the five American air bases, as Drell as the regaining 22,04 Frer.~ch and 0 5 troops . SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 NOTES AND COMMEN'PS Page. I.2 of 16 25X1 25X1 Approved For lease 2005/Q,~,~~~RDP79-009202300080001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUllCI[AxY 9 July 1959 25X6 THE FRENCH 'COMMU'NIST PARTY'S 15TH CONGRESS The French Communist party (pCF} devoted its long-postponed 15th party congress from 24 to 28 June largely to an effort to refurbish its public image as the leading element of respon- sible opposition to De Gaulle and his Fifth Republic. The party seems to expect little improvement in its position in the near future but to be wait- ing until general disillusion- ment with the De Gaulle regime sets in. Secretary General Thorez predicted 'ta long hard struggle" to "'regroup worker and democratic forces." ,SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMEN7~S page 13 of 16 Approved Fo,elease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-0092,02300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 1959 Congress proceedings il- lustrated the difficulties the party faces in this effort. Patently handicapped by the ab- sence as yet of any widespread dissatisfaction with De Gaulle, the congress nevertheless de- nounced him as a "fascist" and asserted that the French econ- omy is about to collapse. It also bucked prevailing nation- alist views in France by reaf- firming Algeria's right to in- dependence and charged that French development of atomic and hydrogen bombs is "con- trary to the national interest." Thorez? reference to':the problem of recruiting as '"one of the persisting weaknesses of the party" and his lengthy denunciation of "revisionism" suggest that the decline in party fortunes continues and that there are still internal dissensions. However, PCF Lead- ers insisted that party policy was correct and gave no indica- tion of altering the basic line. The principal strategy laid down at the congress was the achievement "at all costs" of unity of action with all f1dem- ocratically inclined forces," particularly the rank-and-file Soci~.alists. There was mare empY~asis than at the 1956 con- gress on winning over the "urban pett;y bourgeoisie." The party may see some prospect of a temporary alliance with tradi- tiorially anticlerical groups on t;he thorny church-school is- sue, which may be brought up in Parliament later this month. The party, however, is in a poor posj,tion for action in Parlia- ment, where it now has only IO depv~ties and I4 senators, even though it has regained since the November parliamentary elec- tion most of the electoral fol- lowing it had under the Fourth Republic , In view of the unpopular political Line taken by the party, its most promising line of attack on the De Gaulle re- gime at present appears to be through the Communist-led Gen- eral. Confederation of Labor (CGT). A recent CGT appeal to the nan-Communist unions for a "common front" against the gov- ernment program and far eventual organic unity has been rejected, but increasing practical coopera- 25X1 tion among the unions has been evident in several recent token strikes. PRESSURE FOR REVISING IIS - BRITISH WEST INDIES .BASE AGREEMENT Trinidad's anti-US premier, Eric Williams, is enjoying some success in his Long-standing efforts to limit American use of naval facilities in Trinidad, He is calling for a conference of representatives from the United States, Britain, the West Indies Federation Govern- ment, and the Trinidad Govern- ment to consider revising the 1941 US-British agreement giving the United States rent-free use of Caribbean bases--notably the naval station at Chaguaramas, Trinidad--for 99 years, Williams insists that Chaguaramas be the site for the capital of the year-old federa- tion and has rejected US assur- ances that the military need for Chaguaramas will be reconsidered about 1968. Sentiment far revision SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79T00927A002300080001-0 PART I I - NOTES AND COARMENTS Page I.4 of 16 25X1 Approved F rc~l elease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009002300080001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEI~~KLY ~SUI~M~IRY 9 July 1959 is increasing, not only in Trinidad, but in the West Indies generally. Most .recently, Williams' attacks have been centered on London and the West Indies Fed- eration's prime minister, Sir Grantley Adams, principally be- cause of Adams? request. that the Macmillan government ar- range a meeting with United States, British, and West Indies Federation officials, but with- to deal with what he termed "flagrant violations" of the Chaguaramas base agreement. Landon granted this demand on 3 July. London wants early talks with the United States on re- vising the base agreement. It argues that nationalist senti- ment may rise further and that Williams will one day be the West Indies prime minister. Parliamentary Under Secretary saianos ?~ C'r JAMAICA. Caribbean ,Federation of the Wes[ Indies i out separate representation for Trinidad. As part of this cam- paign, Williams precipitated a constitutional crisis on 20 June when the revised Trinidad constitution came into force. This revision establishes a cab- inet system, with the prime min- ister rather than the governor presiding over the cabinet. Williams demanded that his government and not London have control of the police in order for Colonial Affairs Julian. Amery, who flew to Trinidad to deal with the local constitution- al crisis, is said to believe that Williams will never ac- quiesce in talks being held without Trinidad's participa- tion. -The demagogic premier may well seek to fortify his local position by calling for new elections if his demands are not met ARGENTINE CRISIS EASES Argentine President Fron- dizi, by naming new officials to several key military pasts, has considerably reduced the revolutionary pressures of the past month. This step was paramount among the numerous de- mands of the armed forces, which had expressed themselves strong- ly against military assignments vueraro n~~IC---O^^--..,, VIRGIN - - - L/~ISL~ANDS ~! - NeVIS - ~l~'~ (Antigua St. Christopher Gvedeloupa _ Montserrate r? OGominica flMa rti niq ue. ~Sl. Lucia Si. Vincent. ? Barkados Grenada~? 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-00927A002300080001-0 PART II NOTES .AND COMM]~~AtTS Page 1.5 of 16 Approved F~~elease 2005/03/15: CIA-RDP79-009002300080001-0 SECRET CUftftENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 9 July 19b9 tinged with political favoritism as well as on the danger of Communist and Peronista influ- ence in the government, The new military appoint- ments were in response to two specific demands: separation of the top army and navy com- mands from the army and navy secretaries, and the ouster of former Army Secretary Solanas Pacheco, who had permitted fa= voritism to undermine discipline. The new army secretary, ap- pointed on I July, is 71-year- old Brig. Gen, Elbio Anaya, who had retired in 1947.. Both Anaya and the new undersecretary are known as strong officers who avoid politics. They are said to be making good first impres- sions . Ma j . Gen. Hector Lambaxdf, a noncontroversial officer, was named active army commander in chief , Admiral Adolfo Estevez, a key figure in the anti-Peron revolution of 1955 and a strong supporter of constitutional gov- ermE3nt, remains as naval secre- tar,~ despite a deep cleavagd in i~he navy over his tenure, The post of chief of naval oper- ati