CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
40
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
December 19, 2005
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 18, 1999
Content Type: 
SUMMARY
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7.pdf3.46 MB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Fp COPY NO. 54 OCR NO1115/59 12 March 1959 ^ NQ CHANGE IN CLASS. 0 QECLASSl iFG CLASS. CHANGED TO: NEXT REV"EW DATE: RUTH: HP-70-2, DATE(. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CONFIDENTIAL 1 11 pp - ' I , ru ) ~,L' 'v~L` - le i u il`~ T u r"!"- V AFTER UST I:Jt~`~'~IAT, JOB ~.s3i0X--+ State Department review completed I 9 ' /(. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18. iUSC. SECTIONS 793 AND 794. TILE TRANSMIS- SION OR. REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. The Current Intelligence Weekly Summary has been prepared primarily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does not represent a complete coverage of all current situations. Comments and conclusions represent the immediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Next 5 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 CON AL CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST EAST-WEST NEGOTIATIONS Premier., Khrus 'i,;hev has used his trip to East Germany, ostensibly to visit the Leip- zig Fair, to further impress on Western public opinion his apparent willingness to make "concessions" and thereby to increase pressure in the West for a summit meeting. In a' speech in Leipzig on 5 March he offered to defer the trans- fer of Soviet control functions to the East Germans for a month or two beyond the 27 May dead- line if the West is prepared to "negotiate reasonably." This was intended to demonstrate Moscow's professed desire for a negotiated settlement of the Berlin and German questions and to undercut Western objections to negotiate under threat of an ultimatum. As a further "concession," Khrushchev on 9 March suggested that a "minimum number" of forces of the Big Four or of neutral states could be sta- tioned in West Berli'm to guar- antee its status as a "free city" after Soviet control functions. a a turned over to the East Germans. Although Moscow initially proposed that the "free city" be< demilita- rized, this modification does not essentially alter the orig- inal Soviet proposal turned down by the West. Khrushchev probably believes that Western rejection of hi's two "conces- sions" could be used as addi- tional justification for trans- ferring control functions and signing a separate peace treaty with East Germany. While Khrushchev's state- ment is the first public sugges- tion that Western forces could remain in West Berlin, Soviet spokesmen have taken this line in ;private conversations. The counselor of the Soviet Embassy in Paris on 27 January told an American official that the West- ern powers could keep their troops in Berlin if they wished and that an international con- trol commission could be created to protect the rights of the West Berliners. Khrushchev may plan to of- fer before 27 May further "con- cessions" designed to make the USSR's proposals seem more attrac- tive and keep the West off bal- ance. Despite Khrushchev's ref- erence in his 9 March speech to the "absurdity" of proposals to include East Berlin'in the free city, Moscow may still have such a move under consideration. Com- munist sources in Europe were circulating this idea in Decem- ber and January. Soviet spokesmen continue to call for a meeting at the sumtn;it as the only level at which important decisions can be made. The counselor of the Soviet Embassy in Paris recent- ly told an American official that a foreign ministers' con- ference must be followed by a summit meeting and that these negotiations will lead to an East-West compromise. The only "real solution" the Soviet dip- lomat saw, however, was for President Eisenhower, who en- joYs enormous prestige in the, USSR, to invite Khrushchev to the United States. A member of the Soviet delegation to the United Nations in a talk with a member of the US delegation on 5 March expressed interest in the possibility of a summit meeting within the framework of the General Assembly. He ssQupr ,ONFIDENTIAL PART I OP IMMEDIATE INTEREST D & , of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 SECRET suggested that perhaps the USSR's Berlin and German treaty pro- posals were designed to compel the West to negotiate and were not the final position Moscow would take during negotiations. While adopting the appear- ance of flexibility, Soviet lead- ers reaffirmed their intention to sign a separate peace treaty and transfer Berlin access con- trols to the East Germans if the West rejects the USSR's pro- posals. In his talk with West German Social Democratic Chair- man Ollenhauer on 9 March, Khru- shchev stated that if there is no progress in a foreign minis- ters' or summit conference, the USSR will conclude a separate treaty and then turn over con- trols to the East Germans. that the USSR prefers to keep "what we have now" bec'.use the future actions of a reunified Germany would be uncertain. H,^ also claimed to have precise information that the United States, France, Britain, and "most West Germans" do not want reunification. Khrushchev's threats to counter with force any Western attempt to maintain access to West Berlin once controls are turned over to the East Germans are meant to induce the West to compromise rather than face such an eventuality. In his 9 March speech he asserted that the USSR would not be "intimidated" by "saber rattling" and added, "We are ready to give due rebuff to any attempt to use force against us or our friends." While the communiqud issued on 11 March at the end of Khru- shchev's visit to East Germany made no specific mention of a separate treaty, it repeatedly stressed the determination of the USSR and East Germany to "strive for the conclusion of a peace treaty at the earliest pos- sible moment." After reaffirm- ing standard bloc positions on a German confederation, peace treaty, and guarantees of the "free city" status of West Ber- lin, the communique announced that the East Germans had ac- cepted Khrushchev's-invitation to send a government and party delegation to Moscow in May. This announcement, which carried the implication that a separate treaty would be signed during the visit, probably was intended to exert further pressure on the West to accept Soviet terms for early high-level negotiations. The USSR's basic hostility to German reunification was again made clear in recent private statements by Soviet leaders to Western officials. Khrushchev told Ollenhauer in blunt terms Khrushchev attempted to use his talks with Ollenhauer to ad- vance Soviet efforts to split West German opinion and induce the Social Democrats to take a stronger public stand against Adenauer on the questions of European security and reunifica- tion. The Soviet premier stated that the "USSR places the secu- rity question in the foreground of any discussion of the over- all German problem and wants a withdrawal of foreign troops" from both German states. He claimed Prime Minister Macmillan had 'old him this ought to be possible. Khrushchev endorsed the So- cial Democratic party's thesis that reunification should pro- ceed on a step-by-step basis, beginning with a military re- laxation in Europe. He declared reunification negotiations would be possible "only after an ab- solutely clear settlement between the USSR and the United States of the military status of a re- unified Germany." He said he was convinced this problem could SECRET PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 2 of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 low SECRET . CURRENT INrrJLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 19159 be discussed with Secretary Dulles and Prime Ministet'Mac- millan but he was uncertain about President de Gkulle's at- titude. "The worst and most difficult case," he said, "is Adenauer. "' New Soviet approaches to the West German Social Democrats and propaganda attempts to ex- ploit the Macmillan-Khrushchev reference to a European zone of is limitation reflect the So- viet leaders' confidence that they can capitalize on West European interest in various disengagement schemes in any future negotiations. Soviet propaganda has declared that the Macmillan-Khrushchev meeting is the first time a Rapacki-type plan has been "considered at top level between East and West."' East Germans Ready To Assume Cont-r s Preparations for the East Germans to assume control of access to West Berlin have reached a state of readiness so that the transfer could be effected at any time. In the Potsdam district bordering West Berlin, members of the East German workers' mil- itia (Kampfgruppen) were slated to undergo a week's s ec i al heavy-wea ons trainin s raining was to take priority over all factory production work in order to com- plete the establishment and training of s ,'cbial heavy-.weap- ons battalions of the Kampfgrup- pen in this district by 21 March. Officials of the police and Kampfgruppen were informed that 'tprovocations" from West Berlin and West Germany could be ex- pected during the last teh days of April, to reach a Climax on 26 and 27 April. They were also told the army and border police had already been ordered to sub- mit, their final action plan by 21 March. Western Views Prime Minister Macmillan, in talks in Western capitals since his meeting with Khru- shchev, is exercising increas- ing personal authority over British foreign policy and seek- ing to take the lead in forming the West's position in negotia- tions with the USSR. Macmillan has publicly stressed his achievement in securing Khrushchev's agreement that East-West differences should be settled by negotiations and evidently believes there is con- siderable hope that some real progress on major problems might be achieved by a summit meeting. However, the government, having helped inflate the British pub- lic''s hope, may find itself un- der formidable political pres- sure to purchase agreement with the USSR by generous concessions. Prior to Macmillan's visit to Paris, Adenauer and De Gaulle on 9. March reached agreement on a strong stand on access to Ber- lin. De Gaulle is willing to undertake major risks, and, if necessary, an "exchange of shots." French and German for- eign ministers agreed that a :foreign ministers' conference is preferable but that a summit conference could be accepted if properly prepared. They saw substantial difficulties on agenda and participation, though both Bonn and Paris would accept the Poles and Czechs as "observ- ers" on a German peace treaty. to their talks on 9-10 March, Macmillan and De Gaulle also SECRET PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEEES( ' Page 3 of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET 12 March 1959 agreed on accepting a foreign ministers' conference and a sub- sequent summit meeting. The British, however, are willing to accept a more flexible for- mulation of the agenda, and see the inclusion of Czechoslovakia and Poland as no major obstacle. There is considerable di- vergence in the West European views of possible talks on dis- engagement. Adenauer and De Gaulle were seriously concerned at the reference in the Mac- millan-Khrushchev communiqud to the "limitation of forces and weapons, both conventional and nuclear, in an agreed area of Europe." British officials, however, maintain that Mac- ac- mi l lan has not endorsed any millan troop withdrawals, but only a study of "thinning out of forces. In West Berlin, Ollenhauer has been sharply criticized for his handling of his meeting with Khrushchev. The press stressed he was outL,:.atched by Khrushchev. West German officials. and West Berlin SPD leaders regard as a particular blunder Ollenhauer's acceptance of Soviet terminology in the communique. Willy Brandt's rejection of Khrushchev's invitation to Ber- lin talks was generally hailed in West Germany and West Berlin. MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS Iraq The revolt of the Mosul army garrison in northern Iraq has been suppressed. Army units from Baghdad have been sent north to reinforce the local security units in curbing tribes- men who have been pillaging and cutting communications in the countryside. Reprisals against rebel sympathizers are probably also occurring in Mosul. Colonel Shawwaf, the Mosul garrison commander who led the revolt, clearly expected imme- diate support from army units elsewhere in Iraq, and his plans apparently depended in large part on the success of an as- sassination attempt against Prime Minister Qasim. None of the other phases of the plot materialized, and even the best known army opponent of Qasim's policies, Brigadier Tabagchali, commander of the Second Division of which Shawwaf's force was a part;, only sat briefly on the fence before pledging support to Qasim. Remnants; of the rebel force are reported to have fled toward the Syrian border, under strafing attacks by Iraqi Air Force planes, but Shawwaf and a number of his officers appar- ently were killed by their own men after a government air at- tack on their headquarters. The Iraqi Communists are using the revolt to justify in- tensified demands for a purge of a].1 "sympathizers and sup- porters" of the revolt from the government and army, for the arming of the Communist- controlled Popular Resistance Force, for the execution of anti-?Qasim leaders now under death sentence, and for immediate SECRET PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Paae 4 of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY withdrawal from the Baghdad Pact. These "demands" are being broad- cast by Baghdad radio, which is Communist directed, and by the Baghdad press. All ''"nationalist" and pro-UAR newspapers in Bagh- dad were put out of action by mobs which destroyed their presses on 10-11 March. The most immediate inter- national result of the suppres- sion of the Iraqi revolt has been a sharp deterioration in Baghdad's relations with Cairo. The Iraqi Government on 9 March declared 11 members of the UAR Embassy in Baghdad personae non gratae,and some 30 Egyptians left Baghdad the following day. The expulsion of the Egyp- tians was accompanied for the first time by direct attacks, without euphemisms, on Nasir and the UAR as the instigators of the rebellion, although local Communist elements--following Moscow's initial line--also sought to throw some of the blame on the United States. The UAR President replied to the Iraqi attacks in a speech on 11 March in Damascus, where he has been engaged in a round of political fencemending and handshaking. Frustrated by the failure of the revolt and stung by this and previous Iraqi accusations, Nasir lashed out in the strongest terms he has yet used against Qasim and the Com- munists. He said Qasim was di- viding the Arabs--making a play on Qasim's name, which means "divider" in Arabic--and he de- nounced the Communists as "agents" of "the-foreigners." He reiterated that his own "mission" to bring about full Arab unity remains unchanged. He concluded with an oblique reference to the possibility of further difficulty between the UAR and the Soviet Union by saying he intended to pursue his mission "regardless of the harm which may befall us."- This speech breaks the sur- face concord which had been es- tablished last month by Nasir's speech and Khrushchev's letter on their respective attitudes toward Arab Communist movements. Moscow's initial commentary on the Iraqi uprising sought to avoid identifying it with the UAR by asserting that the revolt was a consequence of American attempts to bolster the Baghdad Pact, but it is unlikely that Soviet leaders will be able to ignore so blatant an attack on the Communists as Nasir's latest. The most recent Moscow comment has predicted that the "secrets" of the anti-Qasim conspiracy will be revealed, as will the "threats" which "lead outside the borders of Iraq." With the eclipse of his in- fluence in Iraq, Nasir's contests with Qasim and the Communists may move into peripheral areas. One possible arena is Kuwait, whose oil revenues have long been eyed by both Iraqi and UAR leaders. Baghdad is in a favor- able geographic position to ap- ply pressure on Kuwait--there are border disputes which could, be revived on short notice--and the Kuwaitis have traditionally feared and resisted Iraqi pres- sure. Nasir has long been a hero to the Kuwaiti populace; and his propaganda has been spread by non-Kuwaiti schoolteachers, taxi drivers, newspaper writers, and other professionals. The ruling family has been less enthusi- astic, but has sought both to appease Arab nationalism by SECRET PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 5 of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 SECRET .. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 making friendly gestures toward Cairo and to suppress nationalist sentiment by banning newspapers and closing nationalist clubs. UAR interest in Kuwait was pub- licly demonstrated by the visit of a UAR military mission in mid-January. Sudan Additional changes in the Sudanese Government have further reduced the influence of the relatively pro-Western members of the Ansar sect and Umma party. Major General Wahab,the principal Ansar representative, has been removed from both the Supreme Army Council and the cabinet. The threat that Ansar tribesmen might be brought in- to Khartoum as counterpressure has probably been parried for the! moment.. The Ansar leader, Sayyid Abd al-Rahman al-Madhi, is reported to have urged about., a thousand of his followers to return to their homes. The situa- tion remains unstable, however, and there still appears to be considerable maneuvering within the army. Although the Sudanese foreign minister has attributed developments to personal rivalries among senior officers, the pro- Egyptian sentiment of many jun- ior officers is also playing a role. More changes in the make- up of the government seem inevi- table, and a Cairo newspaper has 25X1 published a report that General Abboud himself may step down as head of the government. II UNREST IN EASTERN AFRICA The Africans in Nyasaland --in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland--are resorting to guerrilla warfare in their struggle against white-settler rule. In Kenya, moderate Afri- can nationalists may be forced by extremists to resort to vi- olence to win more political rights and the assurance of fu- ture control of that British colony. Nyasaland There has been no letup in the nationalists' campaign of violence despite the govern- ment's widespread arrests of nationalist leaders.. Agitation appears to have shifted from crowd demonstrations in front of public buildings to armed attacks on targets of economic or communications importance-- tea plantations, highways, bridges, and airfields. Five Rhodesian infantry battalions now are in Nyasaland in addi- tion to police units, but the rebels have been able to block the main north-south road and destroy bridges. The disorders have received increased international atten- tion. Partisan debate has be- come more bitter in Britain, and propaganda broadcasts and statements have increased from the Communist nations, the UAR, and African organizations in Nigeria, Ghana, and the Union of South Africa. The United Nations may become involved if the Tanganyika Government is reprimanded in the Trusteeship Council for using its police to quell riots outside the trust territory. Furthermore, a crisis in London's relations with the Rhodesian federation SECRET PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 6 of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Iftow SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 might arise if Britain moved troops from Kenya, now on a six-hour alert, to Nyasaland without the federation's re- quest, Kenya Britain may soon face vio- lent demonstrations in Kenya if Tom Mboya, the moderate leader of the Africans, is forced to go along with extrem- ists of the proviolence wing of his party. The extremists now are aroused over Britain's arrest of their leader, Omolo Agar. Mboya has not been able to obtain Britain's agreement to a "round-table" discussion on his terms for eventual African SECRET control of Kenya and immediate political reforms. There are indications, however, that London plans to issue a: new policy statement for East Af- rica, probably in April. Since the new policy purportedly will establish "parliamentary democ- racy" and the governor has commented that it may lead some Europeans to leave Kenya, the statement apparently will favor African interests. In this event, European extremists might provoke demonstrations. If a gradual program ex- tending over a decade or more is envisaged, it is also likely that most African nationalist leaders will be dissatisfied with the pace of feform. PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 7 of 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 CONFIDENTIAL CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 NOTES AND COMMENTS KISHI?S RIVALS CRITICIZE US-JAPANESE TREATY Dissidents in Japan's ruling Liberal-Democratic party (LDP),, seeking to deny Prime Minister Kishi and Foreign Minister Fuji- yama full political credit for an acceptable revision of the US-Japanese security treaty, are demanding sweeping changes in the administrative agreement, the status-of-forces document which spglls out the broad terms of the treaty itself. The changes go far beyond the Japa- nese Government's position in negotiations to date. Kishi has been forced to abandon plans to submit both documents to the Diet for early ratifica- tion until he can restore suf- ficient conservative unity to cope with strong Socialist op- position to the treaty. Anti-Kishi elements in the LDP have fallen into line on terms for the revision of the treaty itself. The generally accepted Japanese position calls for advance consultation on the deployment of US forces in Japan and on their use in hostilities outside Japan; ex- clusion of the Ryukyu and Bonin Islands from the Area to be covered by the treaty; elimina- tion of US authority to quell Japanese civil disturbances; and a ten-year time limit on the treaty. The initial Japanese posi- tior.n on the administrative agree- ment; called only for the elimina- tiorL of the requirement that Japan contribute local currency for the support of US forces and facilities. Under pressure from the dissidents, however, Tokyo may seek additional changes involving criminal jurisdiction, the extent of US control over bases in Japan and their access, air traffic controls, and im- portation into Japan of equip- ment and materiel--including nuclear weapons--for US forces. The dissident demands are motivated largely by a desire to prevent Kishi from scoring a major political success prior to the upper-house elec- tions in June and to obscure the ]Fujiyama "stamp" on the initial Japanese stand. This position, if accepted by the United States, might estab- lish Fgjiyama as a logical successor to Kishi for the prime ministership, JAPAN-KOREA REPATRIATION ISSUE The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is under strong pressure from.both North and South Korea not to partici- pate in the screening of Korean residents in Japan to determine which ones desire to go to North Korea. The Japanese Government, possibly interpreting contintued ICRC indecision as tantamount to rejection of its request, is con- sidering direct contact between the Red Cross societies of Japan and North Korea under nominal ICRC auspices. CONFIDENTIAL PART II NOTES AND COMMEN1CS n~.o , Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 The ICRC is planning to send a delegation to South Korea to seek assurances of noninter- ference before making a final decision. Seoul almost certain- ly will refuse such assurances. ICRC wavering appears to have hardened the South Koreans' at- titude and increased their self- assurance. They have rejected Tokyo's proposal to resume ne- totiations for normalizing re- lations between the two coun- tries and are planning to rein- force their armed patrols along the "ghee line." Despite con- tinued anti-Japanese statements, however, Seoul appears as yet to be avoiding precipitous ac- tion against Japan. Pyongyang has rejected any screening, probably fearing that its claim that 100,000 of the 600,000 Korean residents desire repatriation.: to North Korea is exaggerated. A Japanese Foreign 'Ministry official believes that this is an unnegotiable North Korean position which was made to prevent ICRC acceptance of the Japanese request. Tokyo desires to avert a major domestic political prob- lem 'before the upper-house elec- tion in June, b ut it is under increasing pressure from leftist Koreans in Japan and from a propaganda campaign sponsored by Pyongyang to settle the re- patriation issue. Domestic pre ssure, combined with continued lack of cooperation on the part, of both North and South Korea, may force Japan to refer the is- sue Ito 'the United Nations. USSR STEPS UP PRESSURE ON JAPAN IN FISHERY NEGOTIATIONS New proposals introduced by the USSR at the annual fish- ery negotiations in Tokyo on 6 March would drastically limit Japanese fishing operations in the northwest Pacific. They apparently are designed to force Tokyo either to discuss further restrictions on Japanese fishing or to move the discussions up to the "political" level. Foreign Minister Fujiyama said on 10 March that Tokyo would seek a 11political solution" to Moscow's new proposals. Moscow proposes to restrict Japanese salmon fishing in the treaty area to four zones, none of them east of 165 degrees east longitude, end the'fishing sea= son on 30'July instead of 10 August, and limit the catch of red salmon to 10,000 metric tons instead of 25,000 as permitted last year. Tokyo has flatly rejected the Soviet proposals, claiming they would cut Japan's operating area under the 1956 Soviet- Japanese fishery treaty 82 per- cent and would permit a total salmon catch of only 35,000 tons, compared with the 1958 catch of 110,000 tons. Never- theless, the Kishi government will be under mounting pressure to reach an agreement as the fishing season approaches. Fish- ing for some species is scheduled to begin on 5 April, Since the negotiations be- gan on 12 January, Soviet nego- tiators have built a strong case SECRET PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 2 0f 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET,, ,. CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 00 U 60 120 S S ? Yakutsk 140 1 R R 60 165? 1 0 160 1,40 rovideniy cA L A S K A C.P. Novann A de ~' New area i which USSR proposes t prohibit Japanese a Imon fishing Kunashiri . adiv0510k okkaido P 4 C I F I C 0 C E A N CHINA SEA OF 40 JAPAN KOREA JAPAN ] Area prohibited to Japanese salmon fishing as of 1959 Fishing area open to Japanese only under restrictions EAST defined by Soviet-Japanese fishery treat of 1956 CHINA o SEA 12 MARCH 1959 0 NAUTICAL MILES 1000 ? 165 ? 30355 for conservation, contending that fish resources have been depleted by intensive Japanese open-sea salmon fishing and by treaty violations on the part of Japanese boats. Tokyo denies that Japanese fishing is respon- sible for the salmon shortage, but its negotiatiors have admit- ted violations and have accepted a resolution requesting tighter controls over Japanese boats-- the only agreement reached so far. Two Soviet moves during the talks apparently were de- signed to increase pressure on Tokyo. A Soviet broadcast to Japanese listeners on 9 Febru- ary announced that several small areas in the Soviet Far East would be closed to fishing for flatfish and herring--an activi- ty encouraged by the Japanese Government in recent years. The broadcast added that other areas would be closed in the future. Then, on 5 March, Mos - cow informed Japanese maritime authorities that in the future Japanese fishing vessels would be banned from entering Soviet territorial waters for shelter durin- storms without prior per- mission. Although Soviet fish- ery officials later denied that such measures would be implemented, Moscow nevertheless might resort to unilateral closures in the future ? Moscow may attempt to use its 'bargaining assets on fishery issues to draw Japan into peace- treaty negotiations. Previously, however, the Kremlin has settled for additional restrictions on Japan's fishing when important political concessions were not forthcoming. The Seven-Year Plan envisages sufficient ex- pansion to bring the USSR into direct competition with the Jap- anese fishing industry, ORR j (Concurred in by SECRET NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 3 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CU L ZENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY There is no sign of an im- minent Soviet move to break off the negotiations at'Geneva on a nuclear test cessation agree- ment. In his initial reaction to the American draft article introduced on 10 March which provides for indefinite dura- tion of the proposed treaty, Soviet chief delegate Tsarapkin charged that the West is seek- ing to give any party the uni- lateral right to withdraw from the treaty on the basis of an "arbitrary evaluation" of the effectiveness of the control system. While implying ulti- mate rejection of the proposal, however, Tsarapkin reserved the right to elaborate at a later time on his "preliminary" com- ments. Soviet propaganda promptly charged that the American draft article on duration "would as- sure a possibility for the United States to resume tests at any time"--a reference to language in the draft making, duration subject to the inhei ent right of any party to with.- draw if provisions of the treaty are not observed. Af ter the meeting, in Ge- neva on 9 March several members of the Soviet delegation, in- cluding the chief delegate him- self, individually approached members of the American dele- gation suggesting that, "since we obviously have nothing to talk about now," the meetings should be cut down to "one or two a week." Since Moscow probably believes it has fully developed its position for the record, this apparent desire to prolong the talks suggests that the Soviet leaders hope to avoid the possible un- favorable effect that a break- off of negotiations at this time, would have on their cam- paign for East-West talks on the Berlin crisis. (Concurred in by OSI) 25X1 Tito's defiant replies to bloc criticism of Yugoslavia during his tour of Asia and Af- rica and his expressed determi- nation to answer bloc charges blow for blow in the future foreshadow a further worsening in relations, especially with Albania and Bulgaria. Stating that he had not replied before in deference to his hosts, Tito spoke on 6 March--only a few hours after returning to Yugo- slavia--before 200,000 people in Skoplje, Macedonia, and on the next day to over 300,000 in Belgrade. In these speeches he defined his trip almost ex- clusively in terms of Yugosla- via's dispute with the bloc. Tito claimed that the bloc's attacks, instead of isolating Yugoslavia, actually served to increase its stature in the Afro- Asian areas; thus, he said, the efforts by Chou En-lai and others to sow distrust against Yugosla- via backfired. The Western forces, he said, at least had the wisdom to keep quiet. Tito saved his strongest invective for the bloc's "dis- honest policy" of distorting the facts about Yugoslavia and his trip. His speeches were addressed to the people over the heads of their leaders, a tactic previously employed by the bloc against Yugoslavia. He SECRET PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 4 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 claimed that the bloc coun- tries dared not print the truth about his trip, because the people would then see the fal- sity of the entire bloc cam- paign against Belgrade. Tito stated his belief that his dispute with the bloc is not one of theoretical dis- agreements but of occasional "differences of opinion on cer- tain issues which the practice of socialist development has raised both in other countries and in Yugoslavia." He said these were matters "for discus- sion " SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 Tito accused his critics at the Soviet 21st party con- gress of misrepresenting Yugo- slavia by charging that Belgrade had betrayed the interests of the working class and had mini- mized the role of the party. In fact, he said, the Yugoslav party is in full control and directs the development of so- ci;alism "as the Yugoslav people think best." In his Skoplje speech Tito accused Bulgarian and Albanian leaders of attack- ing Yugoslavia "under orders and directives from outside," implying that they should act independently of Moscow's con- trol, Tito's emphatic denial that Yugoslavia sought.to create a third bloc or to revive the Balkan Pact--which he said would be to refute everything he had said about pacts during his tour--accentuated his apparent determination that Yugoslavia's policy of nonalignment be care- fully preserved as the most ef- fective position for exerting .influence in international af- DISSIDENT ACTIVITY IN I19DONESIA . The Indonesian Army has re- cently faced increasingly severe attacks by dissidents of the so-called Provisional Republic of Indonesia,(PRRI) in' North INDON A Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 1ro -- South China Sea DJAKARTA JAVA PrinciDal areas of PRRI dissidcnen TALAUD ISLANDS PACIFIC OCEAN Celebes and North Sumatra. In addition, there has been renewed harassment by the Moslem dissi- dent group,-the Darul Islam, in South Celebes'and West Java. Nf,QQ Balikpopon~ Mancido r?....,r.~ndano Corontalo SECRET PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS na 0 r- of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 nggala..Toboli Pnlu 6f686S Po!gpor Kencuri Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET vao, CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 The resurgence of PRRI ac- tivity has forced the govern- ment to augment its air and ground units, particularly in Celebes, where some, 1,200 troops were sett from Java on 25 Feb- ruary.'Army. Chief Nasu.tion's recent emergency decree order- ing two-year compulsory mili- tary service for all males be- tween the ages of 18 and 23 is indicative of his?ooncern over army losses and the general state of insecurity in widely.. scattered areas of Indonesia. Recent press reports of heavy fighting around the for- mer dissident capital of Manado, in North Celebes, state that government control of the town is threatened. The Indonesian Air Force during the past week has mounted a series of air raids in the northern tip of Celebes. The PRRI commander there, Colonel Sumual, claimed in early March that his'five light battalions had gained the initiative after probing govern- ment strongholds around Manado and had "pretty well severed" the government's defense line. In North Sumatra, the PRRI dissidents have resumed attacks on American- and British-owned rubber estates south of Medan, apparently with the aim of dis- rupting production, intimidating workers, and ultimately-of re- ducing government revenues. In a 1 March raid, a British estate manager was beaten and his life threatened--the first reported instance 'of violence against a European. C0UII$JNISTS' PRESS FOR RESUMPTION OF 1CO1NTROL COLIUISSION IN LAOS 'Peiping and Hanoi, confi- dent that the.1954 Geneva agree-r menls give them a sound legal position, are pressing demands for immediate resumption of In- ternational Control Commission (ICC) activities in'Laos. The presence of the ICC in Laos as- sured the Communists that there would be no effective build-up of,Laotian forces and that no American bases would be estab- lished near North Vietnam; it also served to safeguard local Communists against. government repression. Furthermore, any weakening of the Geneva agree- ments undercuts one of Hanoi's basic_policy'goals -the reuni- fication of Vietnam under terms of the 1954 accords. Chinese Communist Foreign Minister Chen Yi complained on; 6 March that "outside forces" were seeking to undermine the Geneva agreements, "creating tension in Southeast Asia," but he concluded his remarks on a moderate note. Comment. from Hanoi has been equally restrained, although the Vietnamese Commu- niists have more at stake and re- portedly induced the Chinese to request formally that the Geneva conference co-chairmen--Britain and the USSR--act to revive the commission's operations. SECRET PART II NOTES, AND COWIENTS Page 6 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 19:59 Moscow has sought to play down the issue even more than Peiping. The Kremlin delayed one month in transmitting to Britain the formal letter North Vietnam's Premier Pham" Van Dong sent the Geneva con- gerence co-chairmen. Presum- ably Hanoi now thinks that Moscow will make representa- tions in its behalf. North Vietnam recently published the text of an 11 January letter from Neo Lao Hak Zat chairman Souphannouvong;m the ICC pro- testing alleged acts of repres- sion and reprisal against for- mer Pathet Lao members by the Vientiane government, The Communists apparently believe that even though they cannot prevent the introduction of US military personnel into Laos, they can impede it and inhabit Laos' recent drift to- ward a closer alignment with the West. They are seeking to make an impression on Asian neutrals by stressing the "illegal" nature of Laotian and American moves, but they have given no indica- tion that they would tako any military action even if the United States should send military ad- visers. As a rule, some time elapses before appeals to the co-chairmen are answered. Meanwhile, Pei- ping and Hanoi will avoid mili- tary threats, demand that re- prisals against former Pathet Lao personnel cease, and repeat their proposal for government- level talks between Hanoi and Vientiane concerning the bor- The Somali Youth League (SYL)--governing party of the Italian trust territory of Somalia--won 83 of the'90 seats in the 4-8 March national legis- lative assembly elections, but it now faces the threat of in- creasing tribal frictions within its ranks. The new legislative body, elected for a five-year term, is to write Somalia's con- stitution, select a chief of state, and guide the new state after its scheduled independence in December 1960. The election was bitterly contested by the UAR-supported Greater Somalia League (GSL), which failed in its attempt to form a coalition of opposition parties to boycott the election. This action was to be taken in protest against the highhanded tactics employed by the SYL and the Italian authorities, such as hampering election registrations and arresting GSL leaders on po- litical charges. The fact that SYL candidates were unopposed in districts considered opposi- tion strongholds raises serious doubts whether the assembly is representative of the Somali people. The GSL retaliated by resort- ing to violence in Mogadiscio on 24 and 25 February. The SYL- controlled police suppressed the rioting, enforced a dusk-to- dawn curfew, and arrested about 300 leaders and extremists from opposition--largely GSL--parties, In an attempt to destroy the GSL's grass-roots appeal, the governing party immediately fol- lowed up this action by adopting the GSL's popular demand for early creation of a Greater Somalia stater In addition to its suscep- tibility to opposition charges SECRET PART I I NOTES AND COMMENTS Do m0 7 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 of electoral fraud, the SYL will suffer from lack of an effective legislative opposition. This will favor the re-emergence of bitter tribal animosity within the governing coalition. Alle- gations by the rival tribal groups of favoritism and dis- crimination in political appoint- ments may result in a party split along tribal lines and be re- flected within the administra- tion, including the police. Moreover, opposition charges of corruption could discredit the government in 1960 when the UN discusses the procedure for 25X1 termination of the trusteeship preparatory to complete independ- The selection of a politi- cal bureau composed largely of conservatives at the 2-5 March congress of Tunisia's ruling Neo-Destour party assures the continuation. of President Bour- guiba's moderate policies with- in party and government. Sev- eral strong supporters of a more radical point of view, notably Ahmed ben Salah, former head of the principal Tunisian labor federation, failed to be elected. The political bureau can be expected, nevertheless, to press Bourguiba to develop a neutral course in foreign af- fairs and lean toward the pol- icy of "nonengagement" which he enunciated last fall. President Bourguiba com- pletely dominated the congress --the first held since 1955 when his rival, Secretary General Salah ben Youssef, was ousted in a struggle which sharply di- vided the party. Bourguiba, while refusing life tenure. as party president, accepted unan- imous. re-election. While Bourguiba certainly will continue to dominate Tuni- sian politics, a potential ri- val emerged at the congress. Mongi Slim, Tunisia's 51-year- old ambassador to Washington, secured more than 97 percent of the delegates' votes for membership on the political bu- reau. Believed to aspire to succeed Bourguiba, who report- edly does not trust him com- pletely, Slim may be relieved of his diplomatic duties and re- turn to more active politics. Algerian independence and a Maghrebian (North African) federation--which Tunisia has soft-pedaled recently--were the keynotes of the congress. Ob- servers from the Algerian Nation- al Liberation Front, the Moroc- can Istiglal party, and the pro- Communist Union of the Cameroun Peoples were seated with the diplomatic delegation. In his opening speech Bourguiba renewed his, bid for a negotiated solu- tion of the Algerian rebellion by holding forth the possibility of French-Maghrebian cooperation when peace is established in Al- geria. Toward the end of the congress, however, he indicated pessimism regarding De Gaulle's ability to solve the Algerian problem and the effectiveness of a meeting with De Gaulle, which he has recently demanded. Having successfully con- cluded the party conclave, Bour- guiba probably will soon promul- gate the long-deferred constitu- tion, expected to legalize his position by providing for a strong and centralized execu- tive. Promulgation could occur on 20 March, the third anniver- sary of Tunisian independence, and might be followed by some popular endorsement of Bourguiba as Pres- ident. Legislative elections would then follow within six months to select a parliament to replace the Constitutent Assembly, which drafted the constitution. 25X1 SECRET PART I I NOTES AND COMMENTS hn frP 8 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 19 March 1959 AUSTRIAN GOVERNMENT CRISIS The 9 March decision of the Austrian coalition parties to hold national parliamentary elections on 10 May 1959 cli- maxes months of increasing dis- sension within the People's par- ty Socialist coalition,which has given Austria a stable gov- ernment for 13 years. Tension between Chancellor Raab's People's party and the Socialists has been growing since the generally unexpected victory of the Socialist can- didate in the presidential elec- tions in early 1951. The So- cialists' success, while re- storing the balance upset by their poor showing in the 1956 parliamentary elections, in effect deepened the cleavage between the two parties and in- creased the competition between them. Coalition leaders decided last December to advance the 1960 elections to October 1959, but Raab was evidently persuaded by his party strategists to force the reluctant Socialists to accept the earlier date. assured by the absence of any real alternative to it in a country where excessive partisan- ship in the interwar period led to sporadic civil conflict. Several factors now could make postelection agreement more difficult than before: the tendency of party leaders to harp on historic issues, rising bitterness over mutual charges of corruption, and the ever'-present possibility that either party might score an unexpected electoral success. AUSTRIAN NATIONALRAT LOWER HOUSE -1956 ELECTIONS There are no real foreign policy differences between the coalition parties, both of which are strongly pro-Western; and major domestic issues--such as public housing, state-church relations, and administration of the nationalized industries --are likely to be overshadowed by uncertainty over the future of the coalition, itself. After previous postwar elections, restoration of People's party - Socialist cooperation has been SOCIALIST PARTY ra PEOPLE'S PARTY 82 While Raab has expressed himself in favor of continued cooperation with the Socialists, he has also declared that the coalition pact which has made it possible is much too "rigid." If the elections should give Raab's party a workable majority, either by itself or in combina- tion with the small right-wing 25X1 liberals, Raab would be sorely tempted to shut out the Social- GREEK MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS A new test of the strength of the outlawed Communists in Greece now is slated for early April, when municipal elections will be held throughout the nation. The elections will also permit an evaluation of the effectiveness of the government's recent anti-Communist program, inaugurated following the large pro-Communist vote--24 percent-- in the parliamentary elections of May 1958. SECRET PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 9 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959 Spokesmen for the govern- ing National Radical Union (ERE) have announced that the party will not enter formal lists of candidates, and they have ex- pressed the hope that the elec- tions will be "rsonpolitical." Leaders of both the Communist- front United Democratic Left (EDA) and non-Communist oppo- sition parties, however, have announced their determination to make the elections a test of the government's popularity. The recently passed munic- ipal electoral law provides for the election of municipal councilors by proportional rep- resentation and the subsequent election of mayors by these councilors. This system was advocated by the government in preference to a majority system in a move to prevent the cre- ation of electoral fronts be- tween EDA and the non-Communist opposition parties. The system will permit EDA to place members on nearly all municipal councils but should also ensure a nation- alist, non-Communist majority on most councils. The indirect and open vote for mayors should prevent the election of EDA can- UNREST IN The antigovernment violence in Bogota on 3 March, climaxing two months of sporadic demon- strations there and in other parts of the country, was part of the exploitation by opposi- tion elements of Colombia's continuing economic difficulties. President Lleras, who has act- ed to forestall further out- breaks, has accused the Com- munists and followers of former dictator Rojas of provoking the disturbances in an effort to undermine his seven-month-old National Front government of dilates in most of the munici- palities. 'DA, in preparation for the elections, launched a wide- sp:read effort to create an elec- toral front "to rid the nation of minority rule." Most non- Conamunist opposition leaders, however, have been wary of col- laborating with EDA. EDA lead- ers now indicate they will throw their support to non- Communist opposition candidates innany areas in any case, in an attempt to defeat candidates favored by the government. New victories for EDA in the municipal elections would not immediately affect the sta- bility of Greece, as the central government maintains a large degree of control over the mu- nicipalities through appointed provincial officials. Such victories, however, would dis- courage all Greek anti-Commu- nists, would indicate that the government's anti-Communist program is ineffective, and would give ammunition to those who advocate a right-wing author- itarian regime as the answer to the Communist thre COLOMBIA Liberals and Conservatives. The government appears to be stable and in control of the situation,. although it may be confronted by additional violence. The 3 March rioting, which necessitated the use of the army to restore order, was prompted by recent increases in bus fares..._ frequently a cause of violence in Latin American cities. Since early January, Communist agita- tors have been prominent in or- ganizing worker-student demon- strations in the capital against SECRET PART I I NOTES AND COMMENTS Pa-tee " q of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY the increases. The government believes Communists also ex- ploited or provoked widespread provincial demonstrations in February, most of which were against increased consumer prices in cities where Commu- nists have strong influence among labor unions. The unrest suggests the possibility that dissident Con- servatives might join Rojistas to undermine Lieras. Rojas, who has occasioned considerable public tension since he returned to Colombia last'. October, was detained in December for allegedly plotting against the government and is now on trial before the Senate for misconduct during his 1953-57 term in of- fice. His followers are deft- nicely linked with the demon- strations, and the dissident Conservatives, who passively or actively oppose the National Front, have apparently been attempting to justify or magnify the recent disturbances. The coalition government appears to be stable and to re- tain the loyalty of the armed forces. It will probably face further violence and increased opposition activity, however, unless it controls these demon- strations. ACTIVITIES OF PARAGUAYAN REVOLUTIONARIES Paraguayan exile groups seem to be having some success in the war of nerves they are conducting against the Stroess- ner dictatorship through a hos- tile press campaign in neigh- boring countries, paramilitary forays across the border, and feints of invasion. , The exiles--based mainly in Argentina and Uruguay--ap- parently adopted the new tac- tics partly because the change of government in Uruguay on 1 March makes the situation. there less favorable for more violent activity. They may also believe that since the Paraguayan Army still supports President Stroessner, their best hope is to create tension within the ruling group and thereby exploit existing dif- ferences within Stroessner's cam The exiles made a number of harassing attacks with small armed groups against Paraguay in' February and early March. The government easily repelled the invaders but seems disturbed over the press campaign. The government has shown deep con- cern over the effectiveness of such criticism outside Paraguay and, by way of countering it both at home and abroad, has even permitted the arrest of a high police officer accused of brutality. Exile hopes of conducting extensive guerrilla activity in the future are encouraged by the prospect of foreign assist- ance. Some Venezuelan elements sympathetic to the exiles may already have given financial aid to the exiles. Cuba as orlere arms to e action- alized exiles if they agree to unite in a front in which all parties participate. For the present, however, the rebels remain divided and Stroessner, despite his own difficulties, still seem strong- 25X1 er than his opponents. SECRET PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 11 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY NEW SOVIET COMMITTEE FOR AUTOMATION AND MACHINE BUILDING The USSR has established under the Council of Ministers a new State Committee for Auto- mation and Machine Building. This shows serious concern about effective implementation of the ambitious Seven-Year Plan pro- gram.for integrated mechaniza- tion and automation and about reducing the time lag between scientific development and in- dustrial application. Last month's 21st party congress noted that "the trans- ition to complex mechanization and automatically controlled production by means of electron- ic technology is the chief characteristic of contemporary technical progress" and repre- sents the decisive means of en- suring further technical prog- ress in the Soviet economy. It will then, in turn, lead to an advance in labor productivity, lower production costs, and im- prove the quality of production as well as working conditions. The reason for this Soviet con- cern over mechanization and autD- mation of industial production processes becomes more apparent in Khrushchev's statement that over 50 percent of the work in the machine -building, indus- try is performed by hand labor. SECRET One of the problems which has arisen in trying to imple- ment this program has been lo- cal resistance to innovation, which has caused a significant lag in the introduction of new techniques into industry. The unremitting pressure for in- creases in output has discouraged enterprise managers from adopt- ing innovations which they see a5 likely to disrupt production and jeopardize plan fulfillment. Despite the claim of the planners that "overstrains" from unreal- istically ambitious planning have been eliminated, the for- mation of the new committee im- plies a continuing need for cen- tral initiation, promotion, and coordination. The committee's chairman, A.I. Kostousov, was formerly minister of the USSR Machine Tool Building and Instrument Industry; since mid-1957 he has been chairman of the Moscow Oblast Council of National Economy. Kostousov's former ministry had the main burden for planning, directing, and coordinating the mechanization and automation of the machine- building industry. (Prepared by ORAL; curved in by.OSI) 25X1 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 12 of 12 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 CDNFtDE TF~ & CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES DE GAULLE'S NEW Formation of the new French Community is a major step for- ward in France's colonial rela- ions, but President de Gaulle "..as in practice pre-empted the decision-making functions for the community, leaving the Afri- can representatives only an ad- visory role. He may also plan to manipulate the new grouping to strengthen France's claims for a larger voice in i,aterna- tional affairs. The rising tide of African nationalism may soon undermine the commu- nity, especially if its formal organization proves too rigid to accommodate African desires for territorial federation. Republic of France Q Autonomous Republics UN Trust Territories CONFIDENTIAL FRENCH COMMUNITY The French Community is a voluntary association of France and those African states which opted for the status of auton- omous republic under French pro-tection. Besides the Republic of France, it includes the Mal- gache Republic (Madagascar), four territories which formerly constituted French Equatorial Africa, and seven of eight ter- ritories once grouped as French West Africa. The overseas de- partments; and the remaining territories are considered part of France. Paris' hopes of "associating" the former. French colony of Guinea and the Indo- chinese states with the coimuu- nity were disappointed. PA..LT III PATTJ NS AND PERSPECTIVES Pane 1 of 16 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927A002200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 March 1959- The community, in essence, will be responsible for "corn- mon affairs"--de- fined as foreign pol- icy, defense, eco- nomic and financial policy, justice, and higher education-- and will be the chan- nel for French eco- nomic and technical assistance to the African territories. Through it, De Gaulle apparently hopes to protect Prance's mil- itary bases and sources of raw ma- terials in Tropical Africa, while at the same time giving the Africans substantial reasons for maintain- ing political ties with France. Another poten- ARBITRAL COURT Appointed by President PRESIDENT President of Republic of France is ex officio President of French Community _.1 Elected by assemblies of all member republics Composition: Premiers of all member republics Cabinet ministers of Republic of France with functions common to entire community REPUBLIC OF FRANCE Continental France Algeria Sahara Overseas Departments (Reanion, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guiana) Overseas Territories (Somaliland, Comoro Islands, New Caledonia, Oceania, St. Pierre and Miquelon) Soudan Mauritania Volta Ivory Coast Dahomey Niger Chad Gabon Congo PREMIER REPRESENTATIVE 'L_ OF PRESIDENT CABINET ASSEMBLY Malgache Republic Central African Republic tially important purpose, illus- t=aced by French radio comments f.~ the community council's 3 :,arch communique expressing ,'complete unity of views" re- -,.;arding the Berlin problem, is to bolster French claims for a larger voice in determining Western international policy by playing up De Gaulle's posi- tion as spokesman for a "vast and united community stretch- ing across two continents. Institutions The community organization consists of a president, an ex- ecutive council, a senate,, and a court of arbitration. The president of the Republic of France is ex officio president of the community and has con- siderable power to "formulate ... measures for the management of common affairs and ensure their execution," Ho has a rep- resentative in each of the mem- ber states, replacing the former governors. The Executive council con- sists of the premiers of th,:: l3 member republics and approx- imately a dozen French cabinet ministers whose departments have responsibility for "common af- fairs." The council, the "su- :preme institution" for coopera- tion between the governments of member states, apparently will mneet at intervals of one or two months. De Gaulle handles the council sessions just as he con- ducts French cabinet meetings --drawing up the agenda, request- ing the opinions of the partici- pants, and making policy deci- ) ions without taking a vote. In its two sessions so far, the council dealt only with tech- jaical organizational matters and was steered away from any issue which might have revealed dissension. Its most important accomplishment has been planning for the inclusion of African per- sonnel in certain French diplo- matic missions and on the commu- nity's Arbitral Court. This should help in training native administrators badly needed in Africa. SECRET PAt;T III PATTBANS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 2 of 16 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79-00927AO02200010001-7 JC.C;KQ 1 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WE:EI