CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
40
Document Creation Date: 
December 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 12, 2005
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 13, 1955
Content Type: 
SUMMARY
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3.pdf3.19 MB
Body: 
Approved Forelease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092700600130001-3 CONFIDENTIAL CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY COPY NO. 20 OCI NO. 8197/55 13 October 1955 DOCUME 4T NO. ~. ..>_ NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 0 0 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: S ~?J NEXT REVIEW DATE: ~C ~ ..__` At1TH: 1 %70-2 6k - CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 25X1 25X1 State Department review completed ALGOCY Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001 II Approved For lease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927 0600130001-3 THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMIS- SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. The Current Intelligence Weekly Summary has been prepared primarily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does not represent a complete coverage of all current situations. Comments and. conclusions represent the immediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence. Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 Approved Folease cOQS?c!RA9-009200600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY . 13 October 1955 T H E W E E K I N B R I E F OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST NEW AFGHAN-PAKISTANI CRISIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 1 The merger of all of West Pakistan into a single nrovince, scheduled to be made official on 14 October, may lead to a rupture in Afghan-Pakistani relations. Afghanistan objects.to'?the merger because the Pushtoon area for which it demands'.irideperidence would be swallowed up. Any break in relations would give the Soviet Union an opportunity to enlarge its economic offensive 25X1 in Afghanistan. ARAB STATES RESPOND FAVORABLY TO EGYPT-SOVIET BLOC-ARMS DEAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2 Tie-reaction of other Arab states to Egypt's arms agreement with the Soviet bloc has been overwhelmingly favorable. Although credit for the deal has redounded so far much more to Egypt than the Soviet bloc, Moscow's public reiteration of its eagerness to provide all the assistance the Arabs may ask--economic as well as military--may focus Arab attention more directly on Soviet generosity and friendship. 25X1 FRENCH ASSEMBLY DEBATES ALGERIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3 In its debates on Morocco and Algeria, the French National Assembly has succeeded neither in settling these issues nor in clarifying-its attitude toward the Faure government. The out- look for the vote on Algerian policy reflected the Socialists' rejection of a program aimed at integrating Algeria fully in the French republic, and the rightist extremists' demand for strong repressive measures to nip budding nationalism. CQNFtDEt I1AL Approved For Release 2005/02/10 CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 THE WEEK IN BR][EF 25X1 Approved Foelease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00900600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 NOTES AND COMMENTS Foreign Ministers' Conference Issues: Moscow may be preparing to modify its position on disarmament at the forthcoming foreign ministers' conference. With respect to German unification, the USSR has been reiterating both officially and in propa- ganda that this problem cannot be solved at the conference. At the same time, the USSR is actively promoting East-West contacts and cultural exchanges in order to convince inter- national opinion that no iron curtain exists. D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 1 Molotov's Self-Criticism: Soviet foreign minister Molotov's admission M-at a s atement in his speech to the Supreme Soviet on 8 February 1955 was "theoretically mistaken and politically harmful" and the Kommunist editorial criticizing the mistake reflect continuing a-fsks a against him for being inflexible and out of tune with the times in foreign policy. The latest attack may be merely a warning to conform to present policies, but it could also foreshadow Molotov's removal from all posts--party presidium member, first deputy premier, and foreign minister. I- I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page French North Africa: In Morocco, formation of the promised council or e throne, considered to be the next es- sential step in solving the present impasse, is still being delayed. Tribal raids have created a precarious military situation for the French, in northeastern Morocco. In Algeria, terrorism and rebel activity con- tinue, and in Tun s a, extreme nationalist leader Salah ment which became effective last month. Page Political Developments in Greece: The strong vote of con- fidence accorded Greek pr me minister Karamanlis by the Chamber of Deputies on 12 October will stabilize Greek politics temporarily, giving him an opportunity to pro- ceed with plans to develop a new party. Maneuvering among the opposition parties as well as within the Rally is likely to increase as national'. elections, announced for April 1956, draw near. 1 ~. . . . . rage a Effects of Iran's Adherence to Baghdad Pact: Iran's de- cision to join the "northern er"defense alignment, as announced formally to the members of the Baghdad pact on 12 October, results from strong Turkish pres- sure and apparently from the Shah's conviction that it is a "now-or-never" proposition. The USSR has warned Iran that it attaches "grave importance" to this de- cisinn_ and some Arab states will probably strongly criticize Iran's move. ~? ? rage ' SECRET ii 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 THE WEEK IN BR:(EF Approved For lease 2005/0S2~~ CIIAA--RDP79-00927 0600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 Atomic Civilian Defense Training in USSR: Two Soviet publi- cations have recently published in?ormation on atomic defense for the civilian population. By introducing atomic defense instruction for civilians, the USSR probably hopes to increase support for the civilian defense training program. . . Page 8 Warship Construction in East German : the East German naval orces, w c a present consist of 26 minesweepers, and a small number of auxiliary service craft, are being expanded. A construction program now under way is reported to include destroyers, mine vessels, motor torpedo boats, and patrol craft. In addition, an East German shipyard at Rostock is believed to be building a class of 3,000-ton sub- marine tenders for the USSR. Page 8 Communist China Entering Southeast Asian Markets: Communist China is carrying out its offer to, supply Southeast-Asia with machinery and light industrial equipment, and has substantially increased exports of manufactures in 1955. China's determination to increase its share in this market is demonstrated by the great number and variety of low-priced consumer goods which recently arrived in 25X1 25X1 Singapore for exhibition. . . . . Page 10 25X1 Laos: Pathet Lao chief Prince Souphannouvong and Premier Katay have broken off their negotiations in Rangoon and have referred outstanding issues back to the negoti- ating teams in Vientiane. The two, men had reached an agreement for a cease-fire but this was reportedly contingent on a settlement of the basic issues at dispute. . . . . . . Page 11 Indonesian Elections: With unofficial returns from Indo- nesia's 29 September elections largely in, it is clear that no party will have a majority and that a coalition government will be necessary. The National Party, which still has.=a plurality, has stated through a spokesman that it intends to exclude the Communists from any coalition it forms. National Party demands for the resignation of the Masjumi-led government have abated with the rising tide of Masjumi votes. Page 12 25X1 Communist Activities in Malaya and Singapore: The amnesty offered the Malayan Communists on 8 September has so far been accepted by only 21 persons. It has, however, brought forth a request from the Communist Party secretary general for a cease-fire and for a meeting with Malayan chief minister Rahman, which Rahman has agreed to with qualifications. In Singapore, the government faces in- tensive Communist subversive efforts which are greatly aided'by the fast-growin People's Action Party, a Communist- front. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 12 SECRET iii Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved Fo elease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092 000600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 United Front Influence Threatens Pakistan's Stability: The United Front Party is extracting a heavy price for its participation with the Moslem League in Pakistan's coalition government. As a result, the freedom of action of Governor General Mirza and Prime Minister Chaudri Mohammad All, both of the Moslem League, is limited and the nosit:ion of the whole i i l ncreas ng y 14 government is precarious. I I . ? . ? . rage 25X1 Bonn Abandons Trade Embargo Against East Germany: The West German government as abandoned its retaliatory trade embargo against East Germany. Bonn has never been con- fident of its capabilities to force East Germany to discontinue restrictive truck tolls on Berlin traffic and apparently recognizes that Germany may remain divided for an indefinite period. Meanwhile, with the exception of the truck toll and sporadic scrap confiscations, the Ea ans have refrained from harassing traffic be- t G r s e m tween West Germnay and Berlin. I . . . rage -- SECRET iv Approved For Release 22OOS0 - Jil P9-00927A000600130001-3 ( THE Approved For4j lease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092 00600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES THE SAAR REFERENDUM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 1 Most observers anticipate that the statute for Euro- peanizing the Saar will be rejected when the population of the territory goes to the polls on :33 October. Pro- German elements in the Saar are conducting a vigorous campaign against the statute. The West European Union governments, however, are moving to strengthen the forces supporting it. Rejection of the statute would entail serious consequences for French-German relations. COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA TREATMENT OF THE UNITED STATES . . . Page 4 The Soviet press and radio continue to follow the moderate and restrained line toward the United States which they adopted last June. Eastern European media, as is often the case, have delayed somewhat in picking up the Soviet line, and Far Eastern Communist propagandists are making only a token contribution to this effort to sup- port the Kremlin's current foreign policy. PEIPING'S CONCILIATORY APPROACH TO FAR EASTERN PROBLEMS. . Page 6 Peiping's professed adherence to the "Geneva. spirit" has emerged in such recent gestures as the announced de- cision to evacuate six divisions from Korea and the con- tinuing calm in the Formosa area. Without renouncing its objective of liberating Formosa, Communist China is apparently deferring further major attacks in the offshore island area while it sees some prospect of political gain in direct talks with the United States. Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese Communists maintain the conciliatory tone adopted at the Bandung conference last April and seek to weaken American prestige and influence by-intensifying appeals to neutralist sentiment. TROUBLE IN INDIAN-HELD KASHMIR . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 8 Strong Communist influence in the government of Indian- held Kashmir and continuing popular opposition to the admin- istration endanger the internal stability of this area which remained in Indian hands at the time the fighting with Paki- stan ended in January 1949. While Pakistan continues to press its claims to Kashmir, most of the immediate local diffi- culties are caused by indigenous opposition to the present government. The 40,000 Indian troops in Kashmir probably could handle any sudden crisis, but New Delhi appears uncertain how to resolve the long-range internal political problem it faces in Kashmir. SECRET 25X1 25X1 25X1 v Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved Forlease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-009274W0600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 25X1 SOVIET AIRCRAFT ENGINE INDUSTRY . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Page 11 The USSR has made rapid progress in research, develop- ment, and production of modern aircraft engines since World War II and, on the basis of recent observations, now appears to have a capability comparable to that of the West in this field. The demands of any foreseeable aircraft production ro ram can be met by the existing aircraft engine industry. VIET MINH RESTORING ROADS AND RAILWAYS . The Viet Minh, with Chinese Communist assistance, has made a major effort during the past year to rehabilitate the road and rail transport network in North Vietnam. Nearly the entire network, which is of vital importance to Viet Minh economic recovery and the preservation, of military ngth, will probably be restored by mid-1956.1 I 25X1 Page 13 SECRET vi Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved F1'ease. 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092?0600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST NEW AFGHAN-PAKISTANI CRISIS The merger of all of West Pakistan into a single province, scheduled to be made official on 14 October, may lead to a rupture in Afghan-Pakistani re- lations. Afghanistan objects because the Pushtoon area for which it demands independence would be swallowed up in the merger. Any break in relations would give the Soviet Union an opportunity to enlarge its economic offensive in Afghan- istan. Afghan foreign minister Naim has proposed a meeting of the Pakistani and Afghan prime ministers before 14 October, when the merger is to become official, as the "final hope" of preserving relations between the two countries. Nairn is reported to have predicted anti-Pakistani dem- onstrations in Kabul on 14 Octo- ber,' ,and there have been un- confirmed reports of troop movements and preparations for tribal uprisings on that day. Afghanistan only a month ago promised to refrain from anti- Pakistani activities in order to get the Pakistani blockade of its borders lifted, but the heavy personal involvement of Naim and Prime Minister Daud in opposition to merger of the Pakistani provinces may result in at least token action on the fourteenth. Renewal of the bitter Pak- istani-Afghan quarrel would pro- vide the USSR with an excellent opportunity to expand its eco- nomic offensive in Afghanistan, where it already has well-devel- oped economic contacts. Iran's adherence to the Baghdad pact might also inspire added Soviet efforts to keep Afghanistan out of the Western camp. The Afghans may be expected to try to profit from both Amer- ican and Soviet interest in their dispute with Pakistan. Naim told an officer of the American embassy in Kabul on 8 October that Afghanistan is still willing to co-operate with American plans for Middle East defense. At the same time, an Afghan official has reportedly been sent to Cairo to investigate the Egyptian-Czech arms deal. Although Afghanistan has in the past been careful to avoid those types of Soviet assistance which could lead to significant political penetra- tion, current bitterness toward Pakistan, dissatisfaction with American economic aid, and the recently increased economic contacts with the Soviet Union could result in establishment of closer ties with the Soviet bloc, if the latter is prepared to make a vigorous effort to achieve them. SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 1 of 3 Approved Fclease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0090600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 ARAB STATES RESPOND FAVORABLY TO EGYPT-SOVIET BLOC ARMS DEAL The reaction of other Arab states to Egypt's arms agree- ment with the Soviet bloc has been overwhelmingly favorable. Although credit for the deal has redounded so far much more to Egypt than the Soviet bloc, Moscow's public reiteration of its eagerness to provide all the assistance the Arabs may ask, economic as well as mili- tary, may focus Arab attention more directly on Soviet gen- erosity and friendship. Egypt's gains in prestige from the arms deal have been reflected in favorable press comment and in official state- ments from all the Arab states except Iraq. Even the Iraqis have felt constrained to con- fine their criticism to private talks. The Arabs generally see the deal as a major move in their emancipation from Western dominance. Egypt reportedly has been quick to capitalize on this sentiment by,offering itself as a,channel through which Syria, Lebanon, and Libya also can acquire arms. The Arab reaction has emphasized Egypt's heroic role in breaking with the West on the arms issue, rather than any policy change in the Arabs' favor by the USSR. However, Moscow's gains, though slower in coming, are likely to be nonetheless real. I 14-man contingent of Czech an Soviet arms experts arrived in Cairo on 2 October. Not only have the Czechs started implementation of the agreement with Egypt quickly, but Moscow has followed up promptly with a public announce- ment of its willingness to pro- vide economic assistance, specif- ically for Egypt's Aswan high dam 'project. Soviet ambassador Solod told the press in Cairo on 110 October that the USSR could assist with equipment, though not with cash. In Arab international politics, as distinct from Arab public opinion, the arms deal has had a disturbing effect. The increase in Egypt's pres- tige and the possibility that Syria may also deal with the bloc have aroused Iraqi and Lebanese fears that Egypt may use its new supplies of arms to secure the dominant influ- ence among the Arabs that it failed to obtain through the abortive Egyptian-Syrian-Saudi Arabian defense pact. 25X1 25X1 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART I 'OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 2 of 3 Approved Foase 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092600130001-3 SECRET FRENCH ASSEMBLY DEBATES ALGERIA In its debates on Morocco and Algeria, the French National Assembly has succeeded neither in settling these issues nor in clarifying its.. attitude toward the Faure government. The debate on Algeria got off to an apathetic start on 11 October, but as the time for a vote approached, the outlook appeared less favorable to Faure than immediately following the Moroccan debate. The prermi er must play for time to work out a long-range program for Algeria., The Social- ists reject as unrealistic a program aimed at integrating Algeria fully within the French republic, and rightist extrem- ists demand strong repressive measures to nip budding national- ism. Assembly opinion on Algeria's relationship to France is evolving fast, however, and support is growing for a fed- eralist solution. A major influence in this direction is the fact that com- plete integration of Algeria would mean 140 Moslem deputies in the French National Assembly. In the meantime, the immediate reform measures sponsored by Governor General Soustelle are sufficiently supple to be backed by disparate elements in Paris. The final 477-140 vote of 9 October on the Moroccan issue was not an indication of Faure's parliamentary strength. It was more of a warning to Faure to stop pussyfooting and begin immediately to implement the Aix-les-Bains agreement with the Moroccan nationalists. Disgruntled rightists who de- serted Faure on the Moroccan issue but are still nominally in the government coalition are determined to block such a pro- gram, however, and the Socialists, despite their strong support of Faure on the Moroccan issue, are still basically an opposition party. 25X1 SECRET PART I Approved For Releepe Jq&WJQfip p Ra 0927A00060013~age 3 of 3 Approved F R ease 200 / 0? A-RDP79-009 A 0600130001-3 E CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Foreign Ministers' Conference Issues DISARMAMENT Soviet delegate Sobolev's speech at the last meeting of 'the UN Disarmament Subcommittee until after the Big Four for- eign ministers' conference at Geneva. recapitulated previous Soviet statements and con- `tained no important new points. 'He persisted in his refusal to be drawn into a detailed examination of the problem of inspection and control, arguing that agreement must first be reached on.,the princi- ples of a general disarmament plan. The United States, he said, was merely trying to avoid such agreement in con- centrating on President Eisen- hower's aerial inspection pro- posals. However, there are signs that Moscow may be preparing to modify its disarmament posi- tion in the belief that the foreign ministers' conference will provide a more effective forum than the UN subcommittee talks.' In the past the USSR has insisted that a ban on nuclear weapons would necessitate de- struction of existing stocks of such weapons. On 8 October, however, a member of the Soviet delegation to the UN subcom- mittee told American officials that, as currently used by Mos- cow, the term "prohibition of atomic weapons" means prohibi- tion of use and production for military purposes rather than destruction.of existing stocks. Premier Bulganin's letter to President Eisenhower on 19 September conveyed the same impression. While Ambassador Malik and other Soviet spokes- men subsequently denied that this letter indicated a change in the Soviet position as stated on 10 May, the letter may have been intended as a first step toward revising that position. Such revisions. may in- volve changes in the time sched- ule envisaged in the 10. May plan which would be designed to bring Moscow's disarmament policy into line with Bulganin's Geneva position on European security. The 10 May plan, for example, proposed a two-stage disarma- ment program, including liquida- tion of foreign military bases, to be completed within two years, by the end of 1957. At Geneva, however, Bulganin's pro- posals on European security envisaged the continued exist- ence of NATO and the Western European Union for at least another two or three years. Any new disarmament pro- posals at the foreign ministers' meeting may follow the pattern of Bulganin's European security proposals at Geneva by stressing gradual, step-by-step progress, but without abandoning insist- ence on terms of an ultimate agreement presently unacceptable to the Western powers. Thus, the Soviet Union may propose implementation of the first stage of the Soviet disarmament plan which calls for states to pledge to discontinue testing nuclear weapons and to pledge not to use nuclear weapons, except in defense against agre&- sion,, and then only on the aecision of the UN Security Council. Such proposals would be designed to demonstrate the USSR's interest in extending the area of agreement with the Western powers on disarmament and to increase the pressure on the United States to commit SECRET PART I I Approved For Re1e,pVP5/R OdL(rl f '579-00927A00060013 rage 3 1 of 16 Approved For ase 2005/ fi' Q T-RDP79-009200 600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY' itself to a general disarmament program. GERMANY AND EUROPEAN SECURITY Soviet insistence that the German unification question cannot be solved at the for- eign ministers' meeting was expressed more bluntly than ever in a speech by Presidium member Suslov in Berlin on 6 October and in a similarly worded Pravda editorial 'on 7 October. Suslov denied the Western assertion that the success of the conference depends on solving the German unification question. He asserted that West Germany's membership in NATO and its remil?itarization have ,nade a simple solution impossible. He warned that the USSR would not agree to inclusion of a united Germany in NATO. Suslov said that the for- eign ministers must not look for differences of opinion, but rather seek to bring closer together the various view- points on disarmament, banning of atomic weapons, and European security. He stated that a collective security system would increase trust between states and bring East and West Germany closer together, the latter development being a particularly important prereq- uisite to German unity. The East German paper Neues Deutschland has charged that Western planners, by decid- ing to bar German representa- tion at the foreign ministers' conference, are violating the directive of the heads of governments. It claimed that this destroyed the possibility of discussing at Geneva steps toward German reunification. These statements indicate that, in line with its stand at the summit meeting, the USSR will seek to avoid discussion of the unification question altogether at the foreign ministers' conference. If forced to discuss it, the USSR will, emphasize negotiations between East and West Germany and other standard Soviet pre- requisites to German reunifica- tion.. West German Socialist leader Ollenhauer reportedly believes Molotov will suggest that East and West Germany simultaneously renounce their respective memberships in the Warsaw pact and 'NATO as his price for discussing all-German elections. It is more likely, however, that Molotov will con- centrate on European security plans designed to achieve the complete dissolution of NATO. Soviet propaganda has given no clues concerning any modifications the USSR may make in its security proposals. Comment on Western planning has been limited to attacks on the West's desire to maintain NATO in any security system and to assertions that the USSR does not need any Western guarantees against German attack. EAST-WEST CONTACTS Since the summit conference the USSR has been actively pro- moting East-West contacts and cultural exchanges, including a large number with Britain, France and the United States. Soviet propaganda has reported the steady stream of visiting delegations to and from the Soviet Union, particularly in broadcasts beamed internally, but has offered little editorial comment on them. One of the purposes of this propaganda has been to show how faithfully the USSR has been pursuing the "Geneva spirit," while another has probably been to prepare the Russian people for a continuation of this spirit for a prolonged period. SECRET PART I I Approved For Relea 7 i/22WO COMMRINFlE9-00927A000600130( 2 ?of, 16 Approved Fo a ease 2005/ -4GRgIA-RDP79-009? 0 0600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Moscow has not recently criticized the United States or other Western countries for obstructing these visits, nor has it exploited what admin- istrative difficulties have arisen in Western countries to charge sabotage of exchange programs. One likely Soviet effort at the Geneva conference will be Molotov's Self-Criticism Soviet foreign minister Molotov's admission in an open letter to the editor of the Communist Party's top theoretical journal, Kommunist, that a state- ment in his speec to the USSR Supreme Soviet on 8 February 1955 was "theoretically mistaken and politically harmful" reflects continuing attacks against him. In the Supreme Soviet speech Molotov characterized the Soviet Union as a country "where the foundations of a socialist so- ciety have already been built." This was clearly at variance with official dogma, which since 1936 has stated that socialism has been achieved ancc that the Soviet state is now on the path to the higher stage--communism. Molotov's "error," however, appears to have been a slip in terminology rather than an at- tempt to contradict official doctrine, since just five para- graphs earlier in the same speech he had "correctly" stated that "socialism had already triumphed in our country in the period be- fore the Second World War." The lead editorial in the same issue of Kommunist that published Molotov's Witter re- fers to his "erroneous" formula- tion and emphasizes the unity of communist theory and practice and the necessity to be flexible West. to outline what the USSR has done to promote East-West ex- changes and to convince world opinion that no iron curtain exists. Moscow may consider that this agenda item offers an easy opportunity to cite in- creased trust among nations and promote its general strategy of obtaining a detente and arma- ments reductions with a minimum of formal agreements with the in tactics. This editorial ap- pears directed against Molotov for his general inflexibility and obstructionism as one of the formulators of top policy, in- ternal as well as foreign, rather than exclusively for his dogmatic approach to foreign relations. Apparently alluding to the latter, Kommunist asserts that the party" Airing y combines adher- ence to principles and flexibility in foreign policy" and claims that this has been the cause of the "successes of the Soviet - Union's foreign policy in the struggle for peace." Molotov has been under fire for some time, and as late as two months ago his retirement as foreign minister appeared im- minent. Since then, however, he has headed the Soviet delegation to the United Nations and as re- cently as 10 October stated that he would be at the Big Four for- eign ministers' conference at Geneva later this month. He told correspondents at a party he gave for Canadian minister of external affairs Lester Pearson in Moscow that "anybody who reads the letter can see there is no question of retirement, and no question of retirement arises. If you look again, everything will be clear. There is no question of retirement." SECRET 25X1 PART II Approved For ReleasHO 0NII : CWARMS-00927A000600130 % 3 of 16 Approved Fo ase 2005,?2f'I'0'Rgl -RDP79-0090600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Pressure may have been brought to bear on Molotov to admit his February mistake.pub- licly in order to add ideological deviation to his catalog of sins, which include opposing the Yugo- slav rapprochement and being inflexible and out of tune with the times. It would appear that the domestic reasons for Molo- tov's self-criticism and the, publishing of his letter at this time were stronger than the pos- sible adverse effects his hum- bling would have on the'strength of the soviet position at tue Geneva foreign ministers' confer- ence. Molotov may have continued to resist the presidium policy he will be required to represent there. Whether this is more than a warning to mend his ways is not clear at this time,. but it could pave the way for his re- moval from n.11 posts--party presidium member first deputy premier, and foreign minister. Likely candidates to suc- ceed Molotov as foreign minister Morocco: Premier Faure's policy or Morocco, endorsed by the French National Assembly on 9 October, remains bogged down in the face of opposition by the French settlers and by right-wing elements in France. Formation of the promised coun- cil of the throne, which is bit- terly opposed by the settlers, but considered to be the next essential step in solving the Moroccan impasse, has not yet occurred. This council may be formed by 16 October, according to recent press reports from Paris. should he be removed are his two first deputies, A.A. Gromyko and V.V. Kuznetsov, with Kuz- netsov favored because of his higher party position. Kuznet- sov is a full member of the central committee and a former presidium member, while Gromyko is only a candidate member of the central committee. Kuznet- sov, too, better epitomizes the "Geneva spirit" personality- wise than Gromyko, who is cast more in the Molotov mold. D.T. Shepilov, Pravda editor, who was rumored at the time of Khrushchev's visit to Belgrade to have been picked for Molotov's replacement, appears now to be out of the running be- cause of his recent election as Communist Party secretary under First Secretary Khrushchev. Another choice might be P.I. Mikoyan, Communist Party pre- sidium member and first deputy,. chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers, because of his ex- perience in dealing with for- eigners as foreign trade min- ister. Resident General Boyer de Latour is unlikely to be a suc- cessful instrument for imposing Faure's policy. He does not favor a moderate policy toward the Moroccans, and he has close ties with Marshal Juin and Gen- eral Koenig, leaders of the op- position in France to Faure's program. In any case, an at- tempt by him to install the council of the throne probably would evoke settler demonstra- tions so intense that he would have to resign or be recalled. SECRET Approved For Releases W:2 : Q N %-00927A000600130P1ko 4 f 16 25X1 Approved Fase 2005/01f1ATRDP79-009600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY The reactionary Presence Francaise, which claims to rep- resent 90 percent of the 400,- 000 French settlers in Morocco, recently published the text of an agreement allegedly made with the resident general in which the settlers acceded to the withdrawal of Sultan Mohamed ben Arafa on condition that no coun- cil of the throne be installed. The settlers have threatened to resort to violence if such a council is established, and on 10 October reinforced this threat with a 24-hour commer- cial strike. The Moroccan nationalists continue to insist on implementa- carious and state that as many as 35,000 tribesmen may be in- volved in the attacks. Algeria: Debate in the French National Assembly on Governor General Soustelle's modest program of reforms for Algeria commenced on 11 October. The :French government is offi- cially committed to a policy of fuller integration of Algerian Moslems as French citizens, while the Algerian Moslems are now openly campaigning for an autonomous state federated with France. Right-wing elements in France are supporting the set- tlers in Algeria who oppose any steps toward ameliorating the UNREST IN NORTH AFRICA .Fez 0 asablanca l - } Khouribga.t tion of the program agreed to at Aix-les-Bains in August. The upsurge of terrorism in the past month and the continuing tribal assaults on French mili- tary outposts since 1 October were probably initiated by the moderate nationalists to remind France of the strength of the nationalist movement and at the same time satisfy the extremist demand for action. French officials admit that the military situation in northern Morocco remains pre- position of the natives, while the Socialists and Communists are sympathetic toward the nationalists' aspirations. 'terrorism and rebel activ- ities have increased in western Algeria near the Moroccan border. In an attempt to forestall rebel activity as serious as exists in eastern Algeria, the French have armed several thousand Al- gerian Moslems who are considered reliable, as well as many set- tlers. Attacks may be expected to continue at least until the SECRET PART II Approved For RelealMtW/ bO COM 1 ? 9-00927A000600130001P?Lge 5 of 16 Approved Far elease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-009200600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 Algerian issue has been acted on by the UN General Assembly. Tunisia: While the month- old. government of Premier Tahar beg Amar is engrossed in or- ganizing for its newly acquired, autonomy, some Tunisians are be- coming impatient with the lack of political action. Only stop- gap measures have thus far been taken to alleviate the near- famine conditions and severe un- employment. Incursions of Algerian rebels into western Tunisia and consequent destruction of life' and property have created a spe- cial security problem which may' be exploited by extremist nation- alist leader Salah ben Youssef.: Ben Youssef, in his first speech since his return to Tunisia last month, stated on. 7 October that Tunisians are not Political Developments in Greece The strong vote of confi- dence accorded Prime Minister Karamanlis by the Greek Chamber of Deputies on 12 October will stabilize Greek politics tem- porarily, giving Karamanlis an opportunity to proceed with plans to develop a new party. Maneuvering among the opposi- tion parties as well as within the Rally is likely to increase as national elections, announced for April 1956, draw near. Karamanlis' policy state- ment to parliament on 10 October contained nothing new, which suggests that he plans for the present to continue policies of the Papagos government and to concentrate on strengthening his position and organizing party machinery for the elec- tions. His critical references to Turkey and friendly refer- ences to Yugoslavia were ges- tures to anti-Turkish popular sentiment. In an effort to cater to public sentiment and possibly also to demonstrate independence of American bound by their government's agreement with France. He de- clared, "We must not let slip any opportunity to reach our total independence." Ben Youssef was expelled from the Neo-Destour party on 12 October because his views run counter to the moderate and conciliatory policy of the party's president, Habib Bourghiba, who was largely re- sponsible for the conclusion of the French-Tunisian agreement last. spring. Ben Youssef is obviously campaigning to wrest the mod- erate Neo-Destour party from Bourghiba's control. His ex- pulsion highlights the problem which nationalism in Tunisia' faces, and is likely to cause a. split within the nationalist movement. influence, Karamanlis apparently has decided to focus Greek re- sentment over the Cyprus issue against Turkey. In his dual capacity of prime minister and minister of defense, Karamanlis announced on 11 October that Greece would not participate in NATO exer- cises this month pending satis- faction from Ankara, over the anti.-Greek riots in Istanbul and Izmir. He also said the Greek expeditionary force in Korea would be withdrawn. The decision of the Rally caucus on 7 October to support Karamanlis in the parliamentary vote of confidence indicates that the party is at present accepting his leadership. How- ever, some disappointed groups, such as those led by former deputy premier Stephanopoulos and others, are likely to join the opposition eventually and may even try to embarrass the new government during the life of the present parliament. This may fit in with the plans of 25X1 PART II' Approved For Release 2005/6't~TOR&A-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 6 of 16 Approved FoRelease 2005/ R ]TRDP79-00900600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 Karamanlis, who may even en- courage the defection of Rally factions he considers unreliable so he can build his own party with broader representation of elements of the political center. The opposition outside, the Rally continues dsdtni'ted and, Effects of Iran's Adherence To Baghdad Pact Iran's decision to join the "northern tier" defense alignment, as announced for- mally to the members of the Baghdad pact on 12 October, re- sults from strong Turkish pres- sure and apparently from the Shah's conviction that it is a "now-or-never" proposition. The USSR has warned Iran it attaches "grave importance" to this de- cision and some Arab states will probably strongly criticize Iran's move. Reports from Tehran indi- cate the Shah is convinced immediate action is necessary to forestall increasing in- ternal pressure to prevent Iran's joining the pact. Prime Min- ister Ala has already submitted a bill to the Senate providing for Iranian adherence, and early approval by both houses of par- liament is expected, despite some anticipated increased re- sistance as a result of Soviet warnings and veiled threats. Turkish president Bayar and the strong Turkish delegation which visited Iran recently were largely responsible for swinging Iran into line with Iraq, Paki- stan, Britain, and Turkey to complete the "northern tier." The five members plan to meet in Baghdad next month to begin preliminary planning. Iran's strategic location has long made its participation in Middle East defense arrange- ments a virtual necessity. The country has no significant mili- tary strength, however, and the barring further incidents damag- ing to Greece's international position, its arguments for Greek; neutralism may have lost most of their present popular appeal by election time. In any case, Karamanlis' prospects at present appear good. 1 71 25X1 Iranian government will now look to the United States to bolster its military potential through augmented military assistance. Iraq and Pakistan are also likely to press for additional American military aid in order to implement the pact fully. Among the Arab states, Egypt and Saudi Arabia will probably regard Iranian adher- ence to the Baghdad treaty as a diplomatic defeat and a boost to Iraq's prestige. They may also fear that Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan will be more strongly tempted to join the pact. Moscow has already termed Iran's action a violation of the Soviet-Iranian treaty of 1927. Moscow's propaganda campaign has indicated the intensity of Soviet opposition to Iran's in- clusion in Middle East defense planning. The USSR may insist that Iranian treaty obligations prohibit foreign military bases on Iranian soil. The USSR may also increase its activities in Afghanistan, where there is al- ready dissatisfaction with US economic aid and continuing bad feeling toward Pakistan. Moscow is likely to inter- pret the Iranian decision to adhere to the pact as a Western attempt to retaliate for Soviet bloc offers of arms to the Arab states. The USSR may be confi- dent, nonetheless, that it can consolidate its position south of the "northern tier" and thus make Western plans for the de- fense of the Middle East in- effective. SECRET 25X1 25X1 PART II Approved For Rele f05A( 1 ,P79-00927A00060013 Qe3 7 of 16 Approved Foelease 2005/6~Y1'6 9A-RDP79-009200600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Atomic Civil Defense Training in USSR Two Soviet publications have recently discussed atomic defense for the civilian popula- tion. Until early this year, published information on atomic defense had generally been for troops, with many articles ap- pearing in military periodicals. Although basic civil defense training in first aid, gas de- fense, fire fighting, etc., has been in progress in the USSR since 1948,civilian instruction, except possibly at higher levels, has been limited to defense a- gainst conventional weapons of air attack. The June 1955 issue of a periodical published by a Soviet civil defense training organi- zation, DOSAAF, states that the civil defense training for air and chemical defense is to in- clude familiarization with, and the means of protection against, atomic and bacteriological weap- ons and incendiaries of the napalm type. Better training methods and the need for quali- fied instructors are stressed, giving the general impression that this type of training is in its early stages. Komsomolskaya Pravda, on 16 July , contain-e-&-an ar- ticle on decontamination pro- cedures to be followed in a populated area after an atomic explosion. Organization for decontamination is to be ac- complished by the local air defense, whose personnel will be charged with detecting radio- active areas in and around buildings, removing radioactive materials and rechecking after the areas have been decontami- nated. Exposed personnel are also to be checked for radio- active material, and decontami- nation will consist primarily of thorough bathing. The articles introducing atomic defense instruction for civilians have not described the wide range of destruction possible with present nuclear weapons. However, the limited awareness of Soviet civilians to the dangers of atomic attack gained from military periodi- cals will now be further in- creased by specific instruction in passive defense. The govern- ment probably hopes this will result in increased interest in and support for the civilian defense training program. Sup- plemental training for much of the Soviet population will be necessary in carrying out a- tomic defense. (Prepared by ORR. oncurre in by OSI) Warship Construction In East Germany the East German naval, which at present consist of only 26 minesweepers and a small number of auxiliary service craft, are being expanded. A construction program now under way is re- ported to include destroyers, mine vessels, motor torpedo boats, and patrol craft. In addition, an East German ship- yard at Rostock is believed to be building a class of 3,000- ton submarine tenders for the USSR. SECRET 25X1 PART II Approved For ReleaWbW/tQ Wjp-00927A00060013= 8 of 16 Mrlrl1VVCU 1 '.JI JC LVVJ/VIr~,1'~{~/jl'1~RL/r/.7-V V.7L/ VVVV I JVVV 1-J CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 25X1 25X1 Under Soviet im- petus, East Germany's shipbuilding industry expanded extensively immediately following the end of World War II. At that time pri- mary emphasis was placed on construction of commercial vessels. A program for building a limited number of destroyers, motor torpedo boats, and mine vessels had been planned prior to 17 June 1953, but the riots of that date caused it to be sus- pended. Since approxi- mately mid-1954, there have been numerous reports of a resump- tion of planning for warship construction. Of the numerous proj- ects reported,;the "Falke" class de- stroyer is the most important. F_ I 25X1 The planned characteristics of the "Falke" have been re- ported only, sketchily, but in several respects they compare quite closely with those of the new Soviet "Riga" class escort destroyer. Although some of the ordnance equipment reportedly will be of Russian manufacture and design, there are no other indications of Soviet influence. Approximately 15 miner- sweepers are under construction at Wolgast, Stralsund, Branden- burg, and Berlin, and 13 others have recently been added to Sea j& Shipyard engaged in . . warship construction Other important 2 - shipyard Police forces. Construction of an unknown number of high- speed motor torpedo boats has been reported at Wolgast, Ber- lin, and Rosslau. An unknown number of submarine chasers and patrol craft are also reported under construction at unidenti- fied shipyards.. Although there are no in- dications that East Germany SECRET Approved For Release,~5/~ D1000IIA-RD 39-00927A000600130001-3 O Page 9 of 16 25X1 Approved Fo elease 2005 / -RDP79-009 00600130001-3 SECkET_ CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY"SUMMARY 13 October 1955 plans to construct submarines, several reports indicate the USSR may transfer several World War II German U-boats to the East Germans. Such craft, be- cause of their age, would be of very limited usefulness. The strengthening of the East German Sea Police by ad- dition of the number of vessels planned or already under con- struction would improve Soviet Communist China Entering Southeast Asian Markets Communist China's deter- mination to increase its share in the Southeast Asian market is demonstrated by the large quantity and variety of low- priced consumer goods and raw materials which it recently sent to Singapore for exhibi- tion during October. China's policy of underpricing compet- ing textiles and light indus- trial commodities has enabled it to secure a firm foothold in this market, historically supplied by Hong Kong and Ja- pan. At the Bandung conference in April, the Chinese Commu- nists declared that neighboring countries could now be supplied with Chinese machinery and light industrial equipment. In August Peiping stated that exports of manufactures during the first half of 1955 were 250 percent above the level in the last half of 1954. According to a review by the Ministry of For- eign Trade in late July, ex- ports of manufactures totaled more than $60,000,000 in 1954. It is believed that most of these exports occurred in the last half of the year. The American consul gen- eral at Singapore has reported bloc naval strength at the en- trance to the Baltic and pro- vide a real nucleus for any ad- ditional East German naval ex- pansion. yards. Furthermore, conversion of East German shipyards to warship construction and repair will provide the Soviet Union with valuable potential advance naval repair bases. In this way, a part of the load can be diverted from Soviet repair and building that in addition to imports of Chinese nails, wire, newsprint, and textiles which began in late 1954, Chinese electrical appliances, hand tools, bicycles, and chemicals have appeared on the market since March 1955. Peiping has been carrying on a direct mail campaign among Chinese in Singapore and Malaya to obtain agents for and sales of light manufactures. Favor- able payment terms have been granted and direct barter deals have been concluded with local merchants, many of whom formerly imported Chinese products through Hong Kong. Japanese exporters are cur- rently urging their government to initiate countermeasures to meet the increasing competition in Southeast Asia from growing Chinese exports of underpriced light industrial manufactures and :Low-grade textiles. China's expanding sales in this market threaten Japanese trade planning which looks to Southeast Asian trade as Japan's best prospect for obtaining long-range eco- nomic stability. Economic planning in Com- munist China continues to em- phasize the development of SECRET 25X1 PART II Approved For Relej05ffi1%,b9h%,P79-00927A000600 0001-3 age 10 of 16 Approved F9 .Oelease 2005/$N"F9"IA-RDP79-00900600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SNMEAJtY heavy industry. Peiping, how- ever, has recognized the over- whelming political advantages of supplying the light in- dustrial goods market in South- east Asia. Through exports of these manufactures, it hopes to impress its Asian neighbors with its progress toward in- dustrialization. (Prepared by ORR) The meeting between Pathet Lao chief Prince Souphannouvong and Premier Katay in Rangoon started out amiably but broke down on 13 October when the basic issues at dispute came under discussion. These have now been referred back to the negotiating teams in Vientiane which have been meeting inter- mittently since last January. The two men did, on 11 October, reach agreement on a cease-fire but the agreement is of dubious value. It provides for a cessation of hostilities within ten days and the estab- lishment of a neutral zone be- 25X1 tween the opposing forces. the agreement is contingent on settlement of the other out- standing issues which include the basic one concerning the re-establishment of the royal government's authority in the disputed provinces. Most of the truce agree- ment's terms are merely a re- iteration of the terms of a 9 March cease-fire agreement, which was short-lived. A major difference is the clause pro- hibiting any reinforcement of military strength in the two disputed provinces. A Laotian official explained this provision by stating that the government has no intention of increasing its strength in the Pathet Lao areas, and that in any case the entire agreement was "provisional." With the breakdown of the Katay-Souphannouvong talks, the chance of a negotiated settle- ment appears to have vanished. At Rangoon, Katay insisted that with the passage of the 10 Octo- ber deadline, it was too late for the Pathets to enter candi- dates for the December elections. The government will probably conduct the elections in the ten provinces under its control and seek relief from the Geneva signatories for the Pathets' 25X1 refusal to admit royal authority to the disputed provinces in accordance with the Geneva a- greement. Laotian officials insist they have no plans to initiate respond military vigorously action to any but will con- 25X1 certeed Pathet attacks. SECRET PART I I Approved For Releasegq' 21A1b C&JQ~ ff6)0927A0006001300(~ -3 Page 11 of 16 Approved Fq F elease 2005/Q jJ4'-RDP79-009200600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Revised unofficial returns in Indonesia's 29 September elections show over 28,000,000 votes counted and fairly evenly distributed among the four major parties. The National Party retains its lead with 25.7 per- cent of the total vote and is followed by the Masjumi with 24.1 percent, the Nahdlatul Ulama. with 21.6 percent, and the Communists with 20.1. Minor parties account for the re- mainder. Completion of the official count, which has already begun in several districts, will have to await elections not yet held in more remote areas. These include approximately 4,500,000 people, or 10 percent of the electorate. The 180,000-man army will vote on 15 October, and the holding of a new elec- tion in six cities in central Java ordered by the district election committee currently awaits the approval of the Cen- tral Election Committee. This area includes about 3,000,000 voters and originally was re- ported as overwhelmingly Na- tionalist and Communist. All elections must be completed by 29 November by executive decree. National Party demands for the resignation of the present Masjumi-led cabinet have abated with the better showing of the Masjumi. Since the National Party seems assured of a major role in the next government, it may be willing to bide its time either until the new parliament Communist Activities In Malaya and Singapore The amnesty offered the Malayan Communists on 8 Septem- ber has so far been accepted by only 21 persons. It has, how-, ever, brought forth a request is seated or until a suitable issue presents itself to bring about the fall of the cabinet. All Sas troamid j o j o,, a former prime minister and Na- tional Party spokesman; told an American official on 8 Octo- ber that his party council had decided to exclude the Commu- nists from the next cabinet. He said a coalition with the Masjumi could not be excluded as a possibility, but hinted that the Nahdlatul Ulama would be a preferable government partner. According to present un-. official returns, the total number of seats of any two of the four major parties will be slightly less than a bare ma.- jority. When seats are actual- ly allocated, this situation may change and two parties may be .able to achieve a, majority. Otherwise either a triple al- liance of the three major non- Comnlunist parties will be nec- essary, or enough minor parties will have to join the coalition to constitute a majority. The Communists continue to demand participation in the next cabinet. If the National Party council remains firm in its decision to exclude the Communists, the most they can hope for is a government based on a. bare majority which, for safety's sake, would accept Communist parliamentary support. from the Communist Party secre- tary genera], Chen Peng,for a cease-fire and for a meetinr with Malayan chief minister Rah- man, which Rahman has agreed to SECRET 25X1 PART II Approved For ReleasNQDBS'ORND : f7e-00927A000600130c 6 12 of 10 Approved Forf elease 2005&-RDP79-0091000600130001-3 CURRENT INT LL.IGENCE WE)EEL7 STTMNARY with qualifications. The meet- ing has not yet been arranged and the Communists may hope that public pressure will induce Rahman to go beyond the terms of the amnesty and negotiate with them. In a nationwide broadcast on 7 October, Rahman stated that a general cease-fire can be considered only after Chen Peng has accepted the terms of the amnesty and ordered his men to surrender their arms. He said he hopes to convince Chen Peng that the amnesty comes from Malaya's elected government and not from the British. The amnesty covers all crimes committed "under the di- rection of the Communists" since June 1948. Those who surrender may choose either to go to China, the country of origin of many Malayan Communists, or to stay in Malaya as loyal citizens. Those who surrender are screened by the government to ascertain their wishes, a device by which questionable persons presumably may be detained. Rahman has stated that if the Communists refuse the amnes- ty,?he will be in a position to ask for an all-out military ef- fort against them by the people of Malaya. There is some danger, however, that if the Communists continue to demand negotiations while at the same time increas- ing their armed activity, as they have done in recent weeks --they have estimated 3,000- 3,500 armed terrorists in the jungle--enough political-pres- sure will accumulate to induce Rahnian to blame the British for the amnesty failure and to offer new terms including some form of negotiations. In the separately admin- istered colony of Singapore, Chief Minister Marshall faces intensified Communist infil- tration and subversion, which has been vastly aided by the Communist-manipulated People's Action Party. Marshall made a series of speeches during the first week of October condemning Communist subversion in the strongest terms. He has repeatedly chal- lenged Lim Chin-siong, the leader of the People's Action Party, to state whether or pot he Is a Communist. Meanwhile he is striving desperately to build his own Labor Front into an organization capable of challenging the rapidly grow- ing People's Action Party. Marshall has been invited by Rahman to join the discussions with Chen Peng when and if they take place. The movement toward self- government has not been shunted aside by the Communist issue in either Malaya or Singapore. Marshall will go to London in November to discuss a further transfer of authority to elect- ed officials. In Malaya; plans are under way for the appoin-c- ment of a special commission, including members from Common- wealth countries, to revise the constitution. in, preparation for self-government which Rahnnan has demanded "in a year SECRET 25X1 PART II Approved For Relea ( /0 -CWWA-00927A0006001300 Se 13, of 16 Approved 40ase 2005/t$]C'RDP79-00927AP600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 25X6 United Front Influence Threatens Pakistan's Stability The United Front Party is extracting a heavy price for its participation with the Mos- lem League in Pakistan's coa- lition government. As a result, the freedom of action of Gov- ernor General Mirza and Prime Minister Chaudri Mohammad All, both of the Moslem League, is increasingly limited and the position of the present admin- istration precarious. The Moslem League, which represents West Pakistani inter- ests almost exclusively and which had ruled Pakistan since the country received its inde- pendence in 1947, failed to ob- tain a majority in the elections for a new constituent assembly this June. The party was able to form a government only with the support of the United Front, a collection of irresponsible and erratic politicians who control East Pakistan. The United Front was orig- inally given five of the 14 cabinet posts, and on 26 Sep- tember it obtained two more portfolios, including that of foreign affairs. The new for- eign minister, Hamidul Huq Chou- dhury, first statements after taking office reflected an anti-American neu- tralist line contrary to Paki- stan's current foreign policy. The increased influence of the United Front in Karachi is also reflected on the local scene in East Pakistan. Recent reports indicate that the central govern- ment is not'supporting its civil Bonn Abandons Trade Embargo Against East Germany: The West German government has abandoned its embargo of iron and steel products to East Germany which it instituted last and military officials in dis- putes with local United Front politicians. Meanwhile, the United Front chief minister of East Pakistan has recently released several hundred political pris- oners, most of them Communists, whom the central government imprisoned last year, when the province was under direct rule of Karachi. While these re- leases were ordered in fulfill- ment of election promises, they may lead to a repetition of last year's political disturb- ances. Mirza and the prime minis- ter,, by virtue of their ability and prestige and the backing of the civil and military, services, would probably be able, if nec- essaary, to dismiss the United Front and rule under emergency powers as the previous gover- nor general, Ghulam Mohammad, did from October 1954 to June 1955. Thus far, however, they have chosen to attempt to make the representative process work by compromising with the United Front. The governor general and prime minister will probably be able to prevent for some time any major change in Pakistan's for- eign policy, but the United Front may gain a decisive voice in in- ternal affairs. In view of its past record of irresponsibility and corruption, the United Front's expanded role in the government will almost certainly be detri- mental to the future stability of Pakistan. F_ I 25X1 April in retaliation for exces- sive East German tolls on truck- ing to West Berlin. Bonn main- tains that these tolls are the SECRET Approved For ReldWW7W0WNV1Qo RPW79-00927A0006001iat 1-14 of 16 Approved F lease 2005/0 EQj -RDP79-00900600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE 'WEEKLY SUMMARY sole disturbing element in an otherwise satisfactory Berlin access picture and do not warrant restriction of inter- zonal trade. In recent trade negotia- tions, West Germans were im- pressed with the East German arguments that Berlin access difficulties had actually been eased. Actually, except for truck tolls and sporadic con- fiscations, the East Germans have refrained from harassing traffic between West Germany and Berlin. Bonn's real reason for re- suming normal trade is probably recognition that Germany will remain divided for an indefinite period, and that this was clear- ly forecast by the Soviet-East German treaty of 20 September and by Soviet-East German state- ments during the summer. Bonn has never been confi- dent of its capabilities to force East Germany to abandon truck tolls on Berlin traffic. In addition, Bonn fears that the unprecedented gains of the German Democratic Republic to- ward a creditor position in interzonal.trade could do much to boost its respectability in West German and Western trade circles and might sell the idea that Bonn is "antireunification" in its interzonal trade policy. The drive for Western rec- ognition is a paramount factor in East Germany's trade policy and can be expected to govern East German behavior in dealing with interzonal trade issues. The East Germans have consist- ently fulfilled their inter- zonal trade commitments in the face of West German curtailment of deliveries. There is reason to believe, however, that this East German co-operativeness is focused solely on the objective of ob- taining diplomatic recognition and that the government is not prepared to alter its general attitude on trade and communi- cations with West Germany. On the contrary, it has recently increased restrictions on the movement of residents of East Germany and the Soviet sector into West Berlin. Factories and party organizations in the provinces are now following East Berlin in forcing em- ployees to sign pledges not to go to West Berlin. even further tightened. Many of the refugees arriving in West Germany ex- pect the restrictions to be 25X1 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 20 5/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART I I NOT AND COMMENTS Page:' IS f 0f 16 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 Approved Fq elease 2003EE ?IA-RDP79-0092A000600130001-3 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES THE SAAR REFERENDUM On 23 October the Saar- landers will vote to accept or reject the Saar statute em- bodied in the settlement nego- tiated last fall by France and West Germany as a part of the Paris accords "package." An affirmative vote in the refer- endum would make the Saar "European" territory with local autonomy but with all matters of defense and foreign affairs under the control of the Western European Union (WEU). Pro-German elements in the Saar are conducting a vigorous campaign against the statute, and the outcome of the refer- endum is in doubt. The WEU governments are moving to strengthen the forces support- ing the statute, but at the same time some of them are considering alternative solu- tions in the event of an un- favorable vote. Background The Saar statute was ap- proved last spring by all seven WEU countries--France, West Germany, Britain, the Benelux countries, and Italy. It stipu- lates that the baar's defense and foreign affairs be control- led by a European commissioner responsible to the WEU Council of Ministers. The territory would be politically autonomous in other respects, and West Germany would be permitted to develop close economic ties similar to those already exist- ing between France and the Saar. The French-German settle- ment provided for a 3-month period of campaigning to pre- cede a. referendum on the stat- ute, and Jurisdiction over the campaign was entrusted by the WEU Council to a commission including representatives of all the WEU powers except France and West Germany. The stipu- lated conditions for the cam- paign period and for a free referendum were established in July when bans on political activity by pro-German groups in the Saar were rescinded. Opposition to Statute Until the referendum cam- paign started, a favorable vote was taken for granted, largely because the parties en- dorsing the status quo in 1952 polled nearly two thirds of the vote in that year's Land- tag election. However, most of the eight new parties li- censed in the Saar following the recent lifting of the bans on pro-German political activity are violently opposed to the statute. The pro-German enemies of the statute and the Saar Communist Party are conducting a vigorous and noisy fight against the "Europeanization" principle. At present, the most opti- mistic prediction by disin- terested observers gives the statute little better than an even chance of being approved, while most anticipate its re- jection. This arrangement would not necessarily be permanent, however, since the statute was made provisional to satisfy Bonn's demands that the area, which is almost entirely Ger- man-speaking, be permitted to make a final choice following a German peace treaty. SECRET The average Saar voter is apathetic and ignorant about the issue, which has been con- fused by the Nazi-like tactics adopted from the outset of the campaign by the pro-German parties. Meetings in support of the statute were broken up by gangs of hoodlums, some im- ported from West Germany, and Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 1 of 14 Approved Felease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-009200600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 the area was flooded with propa- ganda recalling to the Saar- landers their German allegiance and inflaming them against the pro-French administration of Premier Johannes Hoffmann. The Saar Communists, seeing an op- portunity to. wreck prospects for French-German rapprochement, are reported to have played a large role in fomenting dis- orders. Although disorders have abated somewhat since the WEU commission issued a sharp warning in August further disorders about 25 October are INDICES OF PRO-GERMAN SENTIMENT IN SAAR FOR CONTINUED AUTONOMY UNDER LEAGUE OF NATIONS ACCEPT STATUTE REJECT STATUTE (PRO-GERMAN) 1935 PLEBISCITE INVALID VOTES (PRO-GERMAN) 1947 1952 LANDTAG ELECTIONS 1955 PRIVATE GERMAN POLL AUGUST 1955 possible, particularly if the vote is close. The WEU com- mission, fearing that the small Saar police force could not control widespread outbreaks, has strongly. recommended that an international police force be established to move in if necessary. Although outside efforts to influence the campaign are prohibited, the-pro-German parties have received consid- erable assistance from mem- bers of their affiliated parties in West Germany. West German politicians attended the organization meetings of the new Saar parties,.and funds and campaign literature have been funneled into the Saar from West Germany. Al- though Chancellor AdenAuer has publicly urged support of the statute, he has been unable to overcome the opposi- tion of his party leaders. Furthermore, the West German bishops of Trier and Speyer, whose dioceses include the Saar, sympathize with the pro-Germans despite-the offi- cially neutral position of the Church, and they have not denied propaganda assertions of the pr:o-German parties that the Church regards vot- ing for the statute as sinful. Adena.uer's efforts to per- suade the bishop of Trier 'to modify his position, which carries great weight in the predominantly Catholic Saar, have been rebuffed. The papal representative at Saarbruecken stated on 27 September, how- ever, that the Church leaves its members free to vote according to their conscience. Factors Helping the Statute Several recent develop- ments indicate that the forces SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 2 of 14 Approved Foelease 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-009200600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 The German press has al- ready reported French threats of the serious consequences that rejection of the statute would have on the French at- titude toward German reunifica- tion efforts. Alternative Proposals The British, who have been consistently pessimistic regarding the outcome of the referendum, have evolved a tem- porary alternative solution. Under a plan considered by the Foreign Office, the Saar would be treated as though the refer- endum had been favorable and a "caretaker government" would be set, up which Waal;d' ?be' 'r1DSpan- sible, to a commission appointed by the WEU Council. A similar plan reportedly has been considered in Bonn. Such a scheme would of course require French concur- rence and it is by no means certain that Paris could be per- suaded that a "European solution," even a temporary one, would be pre:eerable to the situation likely to result from the Saar's reversion to direct French control. With National Assembly elections imminent, the French government would find it diffi- cult to make concessions. Pre- occupation with domestic and North African problems, however, might encourage the French to accept another "temporary solu- tion." to the Saar problem. COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA TREATMENT OFF THE UNITED STATES A moderate and restrained attitude toward the West, par- ticularly the United States, remains a dominant feature of Soviet propaganda supporting the Kremlin's current foreign policy efforts. Nonetheless, there is no evidence of any change in Moscow's long-range strategic objectives. East-.West Negotiations Perhaps the best evidence for this-.:can be found ' in' the sustained domestic propaganda preparing the Russian people for a period of East-West nego- tiations. This material is characterized by an absence of distorted pictures of American life and invective against Amer- ican personalities, by more objective treatment of American affairs, by daily reports on friendly exchanges of visitors between the USSR and the West, and by avoidance of comment on sensitive issues. Soviet propagandists, are. developing the technique of clothing standard criticisms of American foreign policy in new dress. For instance, some are presented as "logical" discussions. Many others mere- ly quote well-known American news analysts' criticisms of United States policy. This pattern is vividly depicted in the Russian "humor" magazine, Krokodil. Before July, every e was filled with such anti-American car- toons as the one below. SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 25X1 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 4 of 14 Approved Forjelease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092wW00600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 The change which took place in the 28 July issue was the more pointed because dis- tribution was held up eight days--presumably for a reprint and such an about-face "in the spirit of Geneva" as in the cartoon above. Soviet Cautions But Moscow limits this type of propa- ganda so as to avoid any hint of Soviet weakness or capitula- tion, to ensure con- tinued progress to- ward the achievement of domestic goals, and to accommodate any tactical reversal should the situation demand it. Thus, Moscow em- phasizes favorably foreign reaction to its efforts to pro- mote the "Geneva spirit," demands re- ciprocal American deeds, discusses the advantages of neu- tralism and conversely the dangers inherent in the existence of foreign bases. It warns that the settle- ment of many problems depends on the estab- lishment of mutual trust and this is~ a. 'time-consuming process.. There are also persistent reminders that "certain circles" in the United States refuse to enter into the spirit of the times. Soviet officials,'.on the other hand, it is stated, will never. submit to dictation or threats but will patiently weigh all proposals in search for common.grounds for negotia- tion since they believe Presi- dent Eisenhower and, to some extent Secretary Dulles, are sincere in their endeavors to- ward world peace. Kro odil interprets this line as n . e cartoon below. Other Communist Efforts Elsewhere in the Sino- Soviet bloc a modified version of Moscow's propaganda pattern is being'carried out--with East- ern European media only slowly SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 5 of 14 Approved Forelease 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-009200600130001-3 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 picking up the Soviet line, and Far Eastern Communist propa- gandists making only a token contribution to the new effort. Satellite anti-American propaganda was sharply reduced after the "successful conclu- sion" of the summit talks and has since remained at a low level. Favorable commen- taries dealing with the United States, particularly with the President, have recently ap- peared in Satellite output. At the same time, however, the Satellites have continued to criticize some aspects of American foreign policy. Peiping's failure to accord the "Geneva spirit" theme as much emphasis and significance as Moscow. reflects the difference between the pres- sures and problems confronting the two governments. The conflict between Chinese Communist and American interests, particularly in the Formosa area, is ex- pressed in sharper and simpler issues than the more general and complex conflict between the Soviet Union and the United States. This difference in the nature and intensity of Soviet and Chinese collisions with American power and interests requires different postures toward the United States and different approaches to for- eign and domestic policies. PEIPING'S CONCILIATORY APPROACH TO FAR EASTERN PROBLEMS Peiping's professed adher- ence to the "Geneva, spirit" has emerged in such recent gestures as the announced decision to evacuate six divisions from Korea and the continuing calm in the Formosa area. Without renouncing its objective of "liberating" Formosa, Communist China is apparently deferring major attacks in the offshore island area, while it sees some prospect of political gains in direct talks with the United States, Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese Communists maintain the conciliatory tone adopted at the Bandung conference last April and seek to weaken Ameri- can prestige and influence by intensifying appeals to neutral- ist sentiment. The capture of several Na- tionalist-held offshore islands in early 1955 was announced by the Communists as preliminary to the "liberation" of Formosa itself. The "liberate Formosa" propaganda campaign, however, diminished sharply just before the Bandung conference in April at which Chou En-lal declared Communist China's readiness to negotiate with the United States. Since then, no assaults have been made on the offshore is-. lands . Communist China appears to be impatient to get from the current ambassadorial talks at Geneva to higher-level discus- sions on the Formosa issue. Charges by Peiping radio that the United States is obstruct- ing progress in the talks show that China is anxious to give the appearance of adhering to the "Geneva spirit." The "Geneva spirit," as statements on Communist China's national day, 1 October, make clear, does not entail renuncia- tion of the "liberate Formosa" goal. Peiping acknowledges the possibility of "peaceful libera- tion" but does not reject the use o:E military force if "peace- ful" methods fail. Through negotiations with the United States, it sees the possibility of a withdrawal of American forces from the Formosa area and a consequent erosion of the SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 6 of 14 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 SECRET Nationalist position. But it insists that the status of Formosa, and the offshore is- lands is a purely domestic is- sue. The Chinese Communists have tried to contrast the "military threat" of the United States in Asia with their own "peaceful moves" in other ways. For example, Peiping has as- serted that the alleged demobi- lization of 4,500,000 Chinese troops and the forthcoming withdrawal of six more Chinese divisions from Korea are in keeping with the regime's ef- forts "to ease the Far Eastern and world situation." In fact, however, the reduction of Chi- nese strength in Korea has been accompanied by a strengthening of North Korean military forces, to some extent in violation of the terms of the Korean armi- stice. Professions of the "Geneva spirit" also emerge in Peiping's appeals for peaceful unifica- tion of Vietnam and for compli- ance with the provisions of the 1954 Geneva settlement on coun- try-wide elections. But mili- tary aid is still extended to the Viet Minh, and the Viet Minh in turn promotes subver- sion in South Vietnam and small- scale warfare in Laos. Lifting the Bamboo Curtain To support its Far East peace campaign, Communist China seeks to associate itself with the rest of the Asian community and to demonstrate that the bamboo curtain is an American fiction. To this end, the in- vitation to visit China has be- come a standard tactic. At Bandung, Chou En-lai invited even such staunch anti-Com- munists as Carlos Romulo of the Philippines and Prince Wan of Thailand to visit Communist China. The response to these in- vitations has been quickest where neutralist sentiment is strongest. Former Indonesian UNWARY premier Ali undertook a good- will mission to Peiping shortly after the conclusion of the Bandung conference. The Bur- mese have responded to Peiping's invitations by sending three top-level groups to China.--a cultural mission headed by a cabinet officer, a religious mission led by the chief justice, and a military mission under the commander in chief. On 1 October, some 300 Japanese visitors were said to be in Peiping. Asian Peace Pact In further support of its effort to identify China, with other Asian--particularly neutralist--countries, Peiping on 30 July proposed a "collec- tive peace pact" for Asia. Such a pact is intended to sup- plant the American-sponsored Manila pact which has been un- popular with neutralists and unde:r attack in Communist propaganda, as a military bloc organized to have "Asians fight Asians." Peiping also proposed a general Far Eastern confer- ence to discuss a wide range of Asian issues. Most neutral na- tions are believed to favor such a conference. Communist China's flattery of India affords the most con- spicuous illustration of the effort to enlist neutralist sympathies. India, which used to be treated in Peiping's propaganda as only semi-inde- pendent,is now acknowledged to be fully independent and is as- sociated with China as a charter subscriber to the "five prin- ciples of coexistence." India invariably is China's announced preference for membership on international armistice commis- sions and has been chosen to represent Peiping's interests in the repatriation of Chinese desiring to leave the United States. Trade Agreements The trade agreement is another tactic used by Peiping to exploit neutralist sentiment. Peaceful trade is offered as an Approved For Release 200SE RE2IA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PATTERNS AND PERSPECT]':VES Page 7 of 14 Approved For,&elease 2005/( 2L1~ IA~,RDP79-0092 200600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUM Y 13 October 1955 alternative to the economic warfare fostered by American policies. Perhaps to dramatize its own "peaceful reconstruc- tion," Communist China evidently intends to offer quantities of machinery and iron and steel products in forthcoming agree- ments. The precedent for such of- fers has been set in recently concluded trade pacts with Burma, Indonesia, and Egypt. In China.'s present primitive stage of in- dustrial development, the ex- port of industrial products probably is not warranted on economic grounds, and the ex- ports reflect the fact that political rather than economic factors constitute for Peiping the overriding consideration in the negotiaciun of trade agree- ments. Peiping's appeal for "peaceful" trade has been ad- dressed particularly to Japan. Communist China's political overtures to Tokyo--the latest was Chou En-lai's reported offer to restore diplomatic relations "without conditions''--have thus far failed to evoke a clear af- fir:na.tive response from the Japanese government. But in the matter of trade, Peiping has been able to address itself to unofficial or semiofficial levels in Japan, and has suc- ceeded in concluding agreements with Japanese businessmen. The result of these eco- nomic overtures and the Chinese Communist practice of offering to barter industrial raw ma- terials for strategic goods has increased pressure in Japan for a relaxation of trade con- trols and for recognition of Communist China. In this con- nection, Peiping may feel it is forcing Washington to choose between reducing its efforts to apply strict trade controls on strategic items for China, or perpetuating American-Japanese differences on trade with Peiping. (Concurred .in 25X1 by ORR) TROUBLE IN INDIAN-HELD KASHMIR Strong Communist influence in the government of Indian- held Kashmir and continuing popular opposition"to the ad- ministration endanger the in- ternal stability of this area, which remained in Indian hands at the time the fighting with Pakistan ended in January 1949. While Pakistan continues to press its claims to Kashmir, most of the immediate local difficulties are caused by in- digenous opposition to the pres- ent government. The 40,000 Indian troops in Kashmir prob- ably could handle any sudden crisis, but New Delhi appears uncertain how to resolve the long-range internal political problem it faces in Kashmir. Just after the partition of India in October 1947, Pathan tribal raiders from Pakistan entered Kashmir in an attempt to join the state, which has a majority of Moslems, to Pakistan. The Hindu maharaja, who until then. had refused to attach his state to either India, or Pak- istan, decided for union with India. Regular Indian army forces entered the state to battle with the raiders and occupied the most important areas. United Nations interven- tion brought a cease-fire agree- ment in January 1949. Pakistan and India, have continued their quarrel over the state on the diplomatic level ever since, without any solution being in sight. Last July, Indian prime minister Nehru even implied he no longer felt bound by his SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 8 of 14 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 Q2LI Approved For lease 2005/ pSEUff 00600130001-3 KASHMIR OCTOBER 1955 25X1 Peshawa?r kq Rq PAKISTANI- O R e ? Srinagar Jammu Lahore* Amritsar ? promise of a plebiscite for the state which. he offered at the time of Kashmir's decision to unite with India. Pakistan's new premier, Chaudri Mohammad All, however, made it clear as soon as he took office in August 1955 that his country is still keenly interested in the state. Karachi is again threaten- ing to return the issue to the United Nations, but long-term Indian economic development and eight years of occupation have given Kashmir close and probably permanent ties with New Delhi. The Kashmir Constituent Assembly has approved the state's acces- sion to India and an official 1954 Survey of India map shows all of Kashmir, including the part held by Pakistan, as part of India. Political Situation Sheik Abdullah, creator of the :Kashmir National Conference, which has ruled the state since 1947, commanded strong popular support and maintained a fairly stable internal political situ- ation. Since he was deposed by an Indian-inspired coup in Au- gust 1953 for allegedly seeking autonomy for Kashmir, the Nation- al Conference government has deteriorated. Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, pro- Indian National Conference leader who replaced Abdullah as prime minister, has met heavy opposi- tion since the beginning of his rule. His government in turn has grown constantly more oppres- sive. During its first six months, nine daily newspapers .were suppressed. SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES. Page 9 of 14 Approved Flease 2mp,,IA,IA-RDP79-009200600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 25X1 With apparent Indian Con- gress Party support, the Nation- al Conference has vigorously op- posed.entry of the Indian opposi- tion parties into the Kashmir political scene. Leaders of the local Praja Socialist Party and the Jan Sangh have been impris- oned, . as have workers of the in- digenous Praja Parishad. As a result, the Praja So- cialists have recently agitated for dismissal of the National Conference-dominated Kashmir Constitutent Assembly and the holding of new elections. Na- tional Conference members loyal to Sheik Abdullah have formed a "Plebiscite Front," demanding a referendum to determine the validity of the Constituent Assembly's decision to unite with India. Several of the front's spokesmen were arrested in August and September 1955, but the agitation continues. Bakshi's inability to suppress the agitation indicates a weak ness which did not exist under Abdullah. Most likely to profit from the unrest is Bakshi's political foe, Education Minister Ghulam Mohammad Sadiq, who, as presi- dent of the National Conference, has been exerting a major in- fluence in the government. 5X1 5X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 10 of 14 Approved Fora Release 2005/O2 : CIA- DP79-00929.WO0600130001-3 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY -SUMMARY 13 October 1955 SOVIET AIRCRAFT ENGINE INDUSTRY The USSR has made rapid progress in research, develop- ment, and technology for pro- duction of modern aircraft engines since World War II and, on the basis of recent observa- tions, now appears to have a capability comparable to that of the West. In the field of heavy engines, the USSR has successfully pioneered the de- velopment of turbo-jets and turbo- props larger than any developed in the West. The turbo-props were engineered with consider- able help from German techni- cians. AIRCRAFT PLANT FLOOR SPACE (MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET) In 1953, Soviet production of aircraft engines was esti- mated at 11,000 propeller-driven and 15,000 centrifugal-flow jet engines. Since then, the USSR has begun to switch to the more efficient axial-flow jet. No estimates are available on pro- duction of the new engines. The Soviet air force now has one medium and one heavy bomber equipped with the heavy turbo-jets. (BADGER and BISON), and one heavy bomber equipped with turbo-props (BEAR). In contrast, the United States has concentrated on small, multiple units of turbo- jets to power heavy bombers, on the assumption that such units can be standardized for smaller aircraft. The United States also has favored turbo-jets over the turbo-props because of a, theoretical superiority of jet engines for military use. Turbo-props have been projected largely for noncombat use. In producing two new fighters (FLASHLIGHT and FARMER) mounting small axial-flow en- gines, the USSR is following the Western trend toward dis- carding centrifugal-flow in favor of axial-flow designs. This preliminary move will prob- ably be followed by a general standardization in the axial line, and a corresponding phasing out of centrifugal-flow jets, SOVIET AIRCRAFT ENGINE PLANTS a u l fl ~.,/ LENT GR D- T 1 r"v , 1 4 AHCHERBAKOV MO C VORONEZ 4 KAZAN u - ZAPOROZHE -MOLOTOV KUYBYSHEV4 4.UFA -- A OMS 4r '3 OCTOBER 4955 \ I AIRCRAFT 1~-ENGINE PLANT 5:..-..!"\, f,?.,~: v.?~ L ` 500 MILES s~oo9-a SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000600130001-3 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 11 of 14 25X1 Approved Fo lease 2005/02/ E P79-0092 00600130001-3 MW CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 13 October 1955 The transition from con- ventional engines to turbo-jets and turbo-props has apparently been accomplished smoothly. While returning German tech- nicians have reported typical development problems in the initial series of turbo-props, to corresponding production-. problems have been evidenced.' The appearance of seven BEARS less than two years after ac- ceptance of the engines