SUPPLEMENT 8 TO JOINT EVALUATION OF SOVIET MISSILE THREAT IN CUBA
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP78T05449A000200120001-8
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
T
Document Page Count:
32
Document Creation Date:
December 28, 2016
Document Release Date:
September 4, 2007
Sequence Number:
1
Case Number:
Publication Date:
October 28, 1962
Content Type:
REPORT
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9 Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
IRONBARK
SUPPLEMENT 8
TO
JOINT EVALUATION OF
TOP SECRET
SOVIET MISSILE THREAT IN CUBA
Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee
Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee
National Photographic Interpretation Center
0200 HOURS
TOP SECRET
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SUPPLEMENT 8
TO
JOINT EVALUATION OF
SOVIET MISSILE THREAT IN CUBA
Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee
Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee
National Photographic Interpretation Center
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NOTICE
This report is based primarily on detailed analysis of low-altitude
photography taken on as well as preliminary evaluation 25X1
of the results of similar missions from (Figure 25X1
1). The primary, emphasis is placed here on a technical evaluation of force
readiness, pace of construction, and changes in the deployment program
(Table 1). This report does not attempt to estimate Soviet intent to attack
the United States.
SUMMARY
1. We still have no direct knowledge of thermonuclear warheads in
Cuba, but believe it prudent to assume that the Soviet missile force there
is so armed.
2. We estimate that all 24 MRBMlaunchers are now fully operational,
representing a capability to salvo 24 1000-mile missiles within 6 to 8 hours
of a decision to launch.
3. The present and estimated operational capability of all Soviet
defensive missiles in Cuba is summarized in Figure 2.
4. No new MRBM or IRBM sites have been detected in the past day,
although we have not had high-altitude coverage appropriate for search since
5. Construction at the Soviet IRBM sites in Cuba continues at a rapid
pace and missile support equipment is now being moved to the vicinity of
Guanajay Site 1. No IRBM's per se have yet been observed.
6. The entire missile-launching force at the Soviet MRBM sites in
Cuba is being checked out on a rapid basis. This provides an increasing,
integrated, operational readiness posture.
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7. Automatic anti-aircraft weapons and personnel trenches for pro-
tection against air attack are now evident at many of the MRBM sites.
These weapons have been introduced in the last few days and probably
account for the ground fire now being noted on the low-level photographic
missions.
9. A missile propellant offloading and transhipping facility has now
been identified at the double-fenced area at Punta Gerada in Bahia Honda.
This was suspected formerly of being a port of entry for nuclear weapons.
10. We now estimate an integrated operational capability for the SA-2
air defense network in Cuba on the basis of sharply increased intercepts
of C-Band Fruit Set guidance radar and Mercury Grass tracking data. The
sudden, operational activation of the air defense system during the past 24
hours is probably a reaction to increased overflight activity.
11. An intercepted Cuba message of late Saturday night reads "By
order of Prime Minister, you are to open fire on any enemy plane which
violates our air space."
12. The loss of the U-2 over Banes was probably caused by intercept
by an SA-2 from the Banes site, or pilot hypoxia, with the former appearing
more likely on the basis of present information.
13. Microwave relay towers have been noted at some of the MRBM and
IRBM site areas covered on indicating that an integrated
microwave command and control communication system will be utilized in
Cuba. However, the use of high frequency radio is also indicated by the
presence of high frequency antennae at Sagua La Grande sites 1 and 2.
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TOP SECREiTI
DISCUSSION
OFFENSIVE MISSILE READINESS (Figures 2 and 3, Tables 2 and-3)
General
1. At all MRBM sites, photographic analysis clearly shows that the
Soviets are working to achieve a full operational capability in the shortest
time possible. It is also apparent that some of the sites are now in
readiness condition 4; i.e., reaction time about 8 hours. At some of the
sites, missiles are being moved about, implying a successive checking out
of the missiles in the ready tents. While no specific indicators have been
detected, warhead checkout may also be occurring in the ready tents. We
repeat, however, that we have no direct knowledge that nuclear warheads
are present in Cuba. Further, there is no way to detect mating of the
nosecone to the missile because this would be done within the ready tent.
When such warhead checkout.and mating occurs, readiness condition 3 is
achieved; i.e., reaction time 2 1/2 - 5 hours.
2. There is considerable movement of vehicles at all MRBM sites.
In some cases, propellant transporters have been moved into launch areas.
At other locations, missile transporters and other equipment are being
shifted to make maximum use of natural concealment. Passive defense
measures are being taken at San Cristobal for personnel and emplacements
are being dug for automatic weapons (See Figure 5).
3. At the IRBM sites near Guanajay, there is no question that con-
struction activity is progressing rapidly. With the exception of the missile-
ready buildings, (which could prove to be tents as in the case of the MRBM
sites) all of the integral site elements. are present. However, cabling has
not been laid from the control center to the launch pads.
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4. Within a period of three days, the Soviets have 25X1
moved at least 50 vehicles and other missile-related support equipment into
an area just south of Guanajay IRBM Site 1. This significant activity
suggests that at least some IRBMs and associated ground support equipment
are probably already in Cuba.
San Cristobal MRBM Area
5. Site 1 (22-40-05N 83-17-50W)
Last coverage: Low-level
a. Readiness Status
This site has a full operational capability.
b. Supporting Evidence
All four launch stands and erectors are placed at prepared launch
positions and cabling has been laid. Some construction effort has been
shifted to the housing area.
c. Significant Trends
Construction of more permanent accommodations for personnel
continues and further action to cover and camouflage equipment is evident.
Since onsiderable movement of missile -associated equipment 25X1
has been noted': (1) two missile trailers have moved to new locations,
probably more for concealment than for nearness to erectors; (2) all of the
fuel trailers and at least 10 of the oxidizer trailers have moved from their
original location; (3) one fuel trailer is now parked in a wooded area near an
erector; (4) two oxidizer trailers are still in the original parking area; (5)
four additional oxidizer trailers may still be camouflaged; (6) the fuel
trailers are probably under camouflage tarps at the edge of a wooded area;
and (7) two vans have been moved from one of the groups of five which were
near one erector. In addition, personnel trenches are being prepared within
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the operational area, along the northeastern edge of the site, and within the
tent area. Foxholes have. also been dug inside the security fence on the
eastern boundary of the site. In addition, an automatic weapons position has
been constructed at this site (See Figure 5).
6. Site 2 (22 -41-OON 83-15 -QQW)
Last coverage: Low-level
a. Readiness Status
This site has a full operational capability.
b. Supporting Evidence
All four erectors and launch stands are covered and are emplaced
on prepared launch positions. Cabling is laid to the probable control vans
and generators. Four of the original six missile transporters can be ob-
served; the remainder are probably undergoing checkout in the missile-
ready tents.
c. Significant Trends
A second perimeter security fence is now under construction, and
foxholes have been dug inside the inner fence on the south and west boundary
of the site. A missile-ready tent previously listed as under construction
has been erected. Partial coverage precludes a complete analysis of
activity at this site.
7. Site 3 (22-42-40N 83-08-25W
Last coverage: Low-level
a. Readiness Status
This site is believed to have reached full operational capability.
The readiness posutre, however, may have been adversely affected by
recent heavy rains.
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b. Supporting Evidence
Only three of the four launch areas are covered by good photog-
raphy. One camouflaged missile transporter is located in a field adjacent
to a launch position. This missile unit has had trouble with the ground
conditions following heavy rains. Gravelled roadways are being constructed
from two of the launch positions to at least two, and probably three, of the
missile-ready tents. At least one of the two cables has been disconnected
while the construction is being carried out, but the erectors and launch
stands have not been moved. A total of five missile-ready tents have been
observed at the launch site. Construction is continuing in the support area;
six barracks buildings are complete.
c. Significant Trends
Heavy rains and mud conditions have caused some change in
scheduled site improvements. Vehicle and personnel activity indicate con-
tinued efforts to improve the readiness posture of the site.
8. Site 4 (22-46-55N 82-58-5
Last coverage: Low-level
a. Readiness Status
This site will probably achieve full operational capability on 28
October.
b. Supporting Evidence
Oblique photography makes identification of specific equipment
extremely difficult. The seven missile transporters seen on
have been moved and cannot be detected. At least two erectors are in
position but the cabling cannot be seen. The other two erectors cannot be
detected. There are three probable oxidizer trailers in one launch area.
Many items of equipment could be in the area and not observed. Construc-
tion activity is still continuing in the launch and support areas. Five mis-
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sile-ready tents can be detected. In the support areas, at least two new
foundations for buildings have been completed. There are at least six large
fuel (POL) tanks in the support area and five silver-colored chemical tanks
with hatches.
c. Significant Trends
A full complement of equipment has not been detected but the con-
struction. -activity in the launch area is probably complete or nearly so.
Although the oblique photography precludes a detailed analysis, the evidence
supports the readiness date estimated above.
Sagua La Grande MRBM Area
9. Site 1 (22-43-44N 80-01-40W)
Last coverage: Low-level
a. Readiness Status
This site is considered to have reached a full operational status.
At least four of the missiles could now be at readiness condition 4; i.e.,
reaction time about 8 hours. Evidence can not support or deny a higher
readiness status.
b. Supporting Evidence
Three, and probably four, of the erectors and launch stands are
emplaced on the four prepared launch positions. Three canvas-covered
missile transporters and four missile-ready buildings are in the area.
Three additional ready-building foundations have been prepared. Fuel and
oxidizer transporters have been redeployed from the central motor pool to
well-camouflaged locations near the launch positions. Cabling has been
installed from the launch position to the launch control vans. Wide use of
camouflage nets, natural cover, and canvas has been made throughout the
site area. All significant equipment has been covered with canvas or
camouflaged.
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c. Significant Trends
Work continues on the permanent quarters to the rear of the site
area with roof construction progressing since the last coverage.
transporters to the vicinity of the launch position, the heavy trackage in the
launch areas, and the wide use of camouflage suggests a vigorous, disci-
plined effort to achieve the highest degree of operational readiness.
The redeployment of the propellant
10. Site 2 (22-39-1ON 79-51-55W1
Last coverage: Low-level
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a. Readiness Status
This site has a full operational capability.
b. Supporting Evidence
Four canvas-covered erectors and launch stands are emplaced on
prepared launch positions with cabling in place. Two missile transporters
and six missile-ready tents are in the area. Heavy trackage in the vicinity
of the erectors and oxidizer and fuel trailers indicates that the system has
been exercised, possibly at night.
The ]large ducts leading from vans to one of the missile-ready tents
observed , suggest environmental control within 25X1
the tent. The purpose of the environmental control is unknown but may be
provided for warhead checkout. Because warhead checkout and nosecone
mating would be accomplished in the tent, a readiness condition 3 (reaction
time of 2 1/2 - 5 hours) can be achieved without being detected in photog-
raphy. A microwave relay tower, with two dish antennas oriented approxi-
mately 135 ?/315?, is located at the rear of the launch areas. The three
communication vans associated with it are camouflaged.
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c. Significant Trends .
Two of the launch positions have been camouflaged. The erectors
and launch platforms are now completely obscured by -a pole-supported,
opaque canvas. The transporter positions are obscured by camouflage nets.
Communications facilities for Command and
Control are operational; the location and orientation suggest linkage with
Sagua La Grande Site 1 and Remedios Site 1. Exercising of the missile
system and site improvement are definitely continuing.
Guanajay IRBM Area
11. General
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A possible regimental headquarters area is located at 22-57-OON
82-38-25W, approximately midway between Guanajay IRBM Sites 1 and 2.
The area contains approximately 10 buildings, all of which were present
in May 1962. A known military camp, this facility may have been occupied
by the Soviets; vehicles and personnel are visible. There is also evidence
of vehicle movement between the area and Sites 1 and 2.
Adjacent to the headquarters area, a microwave communications
station has been identified. It consists of an antenna tower with 2 parabolic
antennas and 2 buildings near the base of the tower. One of the two
parabolic antennas (approximatelyn diameter) is oriented toward a 25X1
large, high-frequency radio station near Bauta; the orientation of the other
.has not been determined. One of the buildings near the antenna is complete
while the second is under construction. Vehicles are parked at the base
of the antenna tower.
12. Site 1 (22-57-OON 82-39-25W)
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a. Readiness Status
It is estimated that this IRBM site will have an emergency opera-
tional capability on 15 November and full operational capability by 1
December.
b. Supporting Evidence
Construction is continuing at this site and vehicle activity was
noted throughout the area. Approximately 12 trucks were being used to
provide fill for a ready-building foundation. Conduit has been placed at
three of the launch pads and preparations for conduit at the fourth pad was
in progress. Earth is being mounded against the blast shield at one launch
position.
At least 44 missile-support vehicles now have been identified some
500 yards south of the open storage area. None were in the immediate area
on and only 6 could be seen on the photography.
Some appear similar to that seen at MRBM sites, including 2 fuel trailers,
2 oxidizer trailers, 2 tracked prime movers, and 7 van-type trucks. These
vehicles are located in the edge of awooded area and other equipment may
be hidden from view.
c. Significant Trends
Preparation of the site is continuing and missile-support equipment
now has arrived at an assembly area south of the site. As yet, there is no
missile-support equipment located in the immediate vicinity of the launch
area.
13. Site 2 (22-57-25N 82-36-5_5W)
Last coverage: Low-level
a. Readiness Status
It is estimated that this IRBM site will have an emergency opera-
tional capability by 1 December and full operational capability by 15 Decem-
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ber, providing construction activity continues as currently observed.
b. Supporting Evidence
The large rectangular building near the Dads is nearly complete.
Construction vehicles are active throughout the area.
c. Significant Trends
Photography shows continuing activity and the presence of per-
sonnel at this site.
Remedios IRBM Area
14. Site 1 (22-25-OON 79-35-OOW)
Last coverage:
(No change since last report.)
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COMMAND AND CONTROL
22. Microwave communication facilities were identified on
in the Guanajay IRBM area and at Sagua La Grande MRBM Site 2. The
Guanajay facility is approximately midway between IRBM Sites 1 and 2 and
may serve a regimental headquarters controling both launch sites. One of
the two parabolic dish antennas (approximately in diameter) is
oriented toward a large high frequency radio installation near Bauta; the
orientation of the other has not been determined.
23. The Sagua La Grande microwave antennas are also of the
parabolic dish type. One is on an approximate orientation to Sagua La
Grande MRBM Site 1 and the other to Remedios. The orientation of the
Guanajay microwave transmitters suggest that the command control of
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Soviet Forces in Cuba may be exercised from the USSR through a high-
frequency radio link to the Bauta installation and relayed to individual sites
or regimental headquarters through a microwave system. The microwave
system probably also provides a capability to communicate between sites.
Further, a high-frequency net within Cuba is apparent. High-frequency
antennas are located at least at Sagua La Grande MRBM Sites 1 and 2.
24. It is known that a Cuban military, microwave radio relay network
was installed by RCA during the Batista Regime. The Guanajay and Sagt.Fa
La Grande microwave antennas may be part of this original system, but
construction activity at the Guanajay terminal shows that the system is at
least being modified or extended. The RCA equipment provides 24 telephone
channels in the 1700 to 1985 megacycle frequency range.
SUPPLY AND LOGISTICS
25. The Punta Gerardo port facility (Figure 7) probably serves as the
missile propellant supply point for Cuba. This facility is located within a
defended bay and is accessible to the principal highway network.
26. Within a double-fenced, secure area, there are 11 oxidizer vehicles
identical to those located at the MRBM sites. One of these vehicles is
parked, probably in position for loading, near 24 large storage tanks, each
in diameter. A pipe line leads from the storage tanks
to the bay and is apparently used to transfer the oxidizer (probably RFNA)
from ships.
27. Within the same secure area, there are four buildings under con-
struction. There is no identifiable equipment visible. Common security for
these buildings and the propellant storage and transfer facility suggests
that they are to be used to support the missile systems.
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COASTAL DEFENSE MISSILES (Figure 4)
28. Low-level photography of has provided additional
coverage of the coastal defense missile site at Banes. Despite extensive
camouflage of significant elements of the installation, some features of
the guidance system can be observed. Two van-mounted antennas, one
associated with each launcher, are shaped like a section of a parabola.
They are trainable in azimuth and may be associated with missile tracking/
command? A third element appears to be a tower-mounted antenna which
may be for target acquisition and tracking. The operating frequencies of the
system cannot yet be determined.
29. This site appears to be fully operational. There is no further
information on the other coastal defense sites in Cuba.
AIR DEFENSE (Figure 4)
Surface-to-Air Missile Readiness
30. Photography processed during the past 24 hours shows that con-
struction activity is continuing on surface-to-air missile (SA-2) sites in
Cuba. There is no change in the operational status of the 24 primary sites.
31. Considerable activity by SPOONREST and FRUITSET "C" band
emitters was reported Other 25X1
than several SPOONREST signals and a single "C" band signal reported
previously, this represents the first concentrated radar activity thus far
noted at the Soviet SAM sites in Cuba. Single line D/F bearings of "C"
band signals pass in the vicinity of 9 primary and 1 alternate SA-2 sites.
There is insufficient information at this time, however, to permit firm
assignment of these signals to particular sites. (A single line D/F bearing,
until correlated with other D/F bearings, indicates only that the source of
the signal is at an unknown distance along the D/F bearing.)
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34. From low-level photography of MERCURY 25X1
GRASS antennas have been identified at the Senado and Caibaren SAM sites.
The MERCURY GRASS communication system is used to transmit early
warning data to the SA-2 sites and provides intersite command and control
for SA-2 regiments. This brings the total of MERCURY GRASS antennas
identified to 3. We should be able to identify these antennas at all remaining
SAM sites as additional low-level photography becomes available. All
elements of a standard SA-2 site have now been identified at one or more
of the sites in Cuba including launchers, GUIDELINE missiles, FRUITSET
guidance radar, SPOONREST acquisition radar, SCORE BOARD IFF antenna,
and MERCURY GRASS communications equipment. Although we have not
been able to firmly identify an integrated command and control net for
SAM sites, it is highly probable that an integrated command and control
net for SAM's is now in existence in Cuba.
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TACTICAL MISSILES
(No change)
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TABLE 1
SUMMARY OF MRBM AND IRBM THREAT IN CUBA
Status as of 0200 hours on
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Total
Identified
Probably
Planned
Total
Identified
Probably
Deployed
Total
Identified
Prob Basic
Load=
MRBM - Range 1020-nm (non-rotating earth)
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San Cristob 4 15 16 23 32
(2 regts)
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Sagua La 2 2 8 8 10 16
Grande
(1 regt)
MRBM TOT AL 6 6 23 24 33 48
IRBM - Range 2200-nm (non-rotating earth)
Guanajay 2 2 8 unde r 8 0 16
(1..regt)- construction
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
Remedios
(1 regt)
Total
Identified
Probably
Planned
Total
Identified
Probably
Deployed*
Total
Identified
Prob Basic
Load'
1 2. 4 under 8 0 16
construction
12 under 16
construction
GRAND TOTAL 9 10 35 40 33 80
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This reflects an estimate of 8 operational launchers authorized per regiment.-
This reflects an estimate of 16 operational missiles per regiment.
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SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 1
SITE 2
CENTRAL AREA,
SAGUA LA GRANDE
MRBM COMPLEX
SITE 1
SITE 2
REMEDIOS
IRBM COMPLEX
SITE I
NPIC 66086(10162) ? MISSION S010 NOT RECEIVED AS OF THIS DATE HIGH ALTITUDE LOW ALTITUDE
SITE 1
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
O
T F S
25 26 27
SAGUA LA GRANDE
MRBM COMPLEX
REMEDIOS
IRBM COMPLEX
NPIC -81 NO/6]I
PHOTO COVERAGE OBTAINED.
HIGH ALTITUDE LOW ALTITUDE
? FULL OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY IS ACHIEVED WHEN A SITE HAS REACHED
A STEADY STATE OF READINESS WITH THE ABILITY TO SALVO ITS FIRST
MISSILE LOAD WITHIN ABOUT 6 TO 8 HOURS AND WITH THE ABILITY TO
REFIRE WITHIN 0 TO 6 HOURS.
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
25X1
LJ/~ I
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78T05449A000200120001-8
TOP SECRET
P SECRET
I-
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WN
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Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78T05449A000200120001-8
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
TOP SECRET
~ICYIII
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78TO5449A000200120001-8
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78T05449A000200120001-8
TOP SECRET
TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/09/04: CIA-RDP78T05449A000200120001-8