KEYHOLE COVERAGE OF THE SOVIET RAIL NETWORK THROUGH JUNE 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T05439A000200390045-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 8, 2011
• Sequence Number: 45
• Publication Date: September 16, 1963
• Content Type: STUDY

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ILLEGIB
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16 September 1963
KEYHOLE COVERAGE
OF THE SOVIET RAIL NETWORK
THROUGH JUNE-- 1963
CIA/RR GS 63-23
Office of Research and Reports
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CIA RR GS 63-23
7 lement to CIA/RR GP 62-182;L,
"Utilization of KEYHOLE Coverage
of the Soviet Rail Network in ICBM Estimates," which set forth in de-
tail the definition of "effective" photographic coverage, explained
how this coverage is plotted and measured, and described how the re-
sulting statistics are correlated with construction timing at Soviet
ICBM complexes to indicate how much is known, and conversely, how
much knowledge is lacking about-the existence of complexes of a
given type and age. The first supplement was issued as CIA/RR _GP
63-15
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CIA RR GS 63-23
Wages
7
Text of Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 through 3
Table 1. Effective KF ii'HOLE Coverage of the Soviet
Rail Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Table 2. Correlation of Construction Timing at Soft
ICBM Complexes and Effective KEYHOLE
Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network . . . 5
Table 3.
Correlation of Construction Timing at Hard
ICEM Complexes and Effective KEYHOLE
Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network . . .
Map
Following Page
Effective KEYHOLE Coverage of the Soviet Rail
Network (K304T) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
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CIA/RR GS 63-23
KEYHOLE COVERAGE
OF THE SOVIET RAIL NE'T'WORK
Through June -963
KEYHOLE photography constitutes a major source of information on
ICBM deployment, permitting the identification of deployed complexes
as well as the determination of areas that are void of mown types
of complexes. Inasmuch as all known Soviet ICBM complexes are rail
served, knowledge of the extent to which the Soviet rail network has
been covered by photography of sufficient quality to reveal the presence
or absence of the typical pattern formed by kn rn types of Soviet ICBM
complexes, as well as the timing of that coverage, can be very useful
in estimating the magnitude and pace of the Soviet ICBM deployment
program. With the knowledge of what exists along the portion of the
rail network covered by effective photography it is possible to infer
what is likely to exist along the portion of the network not covered.
Statistics on effective KEYHOLE coverage of the Soviet rail network
are therefore computed periodically by the Office of Research and
Reports on the basis of photo interpretation done by the National
Photographic Interpretation Center. A recent report* provided figures
on coverage through November 1962. A supplement' to this report
updated the data on coverage through March 1963. The present report
6
f 1
3.
9
updates the data on coverage through the second quarter o
ded
l
i
.
u
nc
which took place in June 1963, is the last mission
A total of 96.3 per cent of the Soviet rail network has been
covered by effective photography from the beginning of the KEYHOLE
CIA RR GP 62-182?L,I ~31 December 1962), "Utilization
of KEYHOLE Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network in ICBM Estimates."
* CIA/RR GP 63-153:L, (15 May 1963), "Utilization of
KEYHOLE Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network in ICBM Estimates."
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25X1
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CIA RR GS 63-23
program in August 1960 through JuneI1963. The coverage acquired since
the last computation has extended effective coverage forward about 6
months; the first three missions in 1963 acquired photography of some-
what more than half the Soviet rail network.
Table 1* presents the statistics on the extent of effective
coverage. The geographic distribution of effective coverage is'shown
on the accompanying map.*-*- The "net" mileage credited to each mission
in column 3 represents only the mil age covered by that mission which
has not been covered by more recent photography (this net mileage is
given as a percentage in column 4),. As new coverage becomes available
the net mileage for earlier missions becomes progressively smaller.
In column 5 the net percentages are added, cumulatively, from the most
recent mission to the oldest. The table thus indicates how much of
the Soviet rail network has been phktographed since any given date in
the past. The total amount of photography acquired after a specific
date can be used as a factor in estimating the number of complexes
initiated during a specific earlieritime period.
Soviet ICBM complexes are recognizable on KEYHOLE photography
after the first launch area has been started and the typical pattern
of main support base, road, and launch area has been formed. This
recognition pattern appears in about the 8th month of construction
for soft complexes and about the 13th month for hard complexes. Tables
2 and 3*** indicate the amount of the Soviet rail network that has
been inspected on KEYHOLE photography relative to complexes of a given
type and age. The earlier report, CIA/RR GP 62-182:L, describes the
basis for these tables and gives examples of how they can be used.
Table 1 follows on page 4.
Map follows page 6.
Tables 2 and 3 follow on pages; 5 and 6, respectively.
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CIA/RR GS 63-23
As of I (there was no photography on which soft ICBM
complexes begun after November 1962 would be recognizable, and hence
no basis for estimating the number of such complexes begun after that
date. Since hard complexes take even longer to become recognizable,
photography acquired through the second quarter of 1963 provides no
basis for identifying or estimating the number of hard complexes
started after June 1962.
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TOI? SECRET RUFF
CIA RR GS 63-23
25X1 Effective KEYHOLE Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network
(3)
(+)
5
24,160
28.7
28.7
]x,179
13.2
41.9
8,280
9.8
51.7
5,502
6.5
58.2
2,585
3.1
61.3
9,219
10.9
72.2
2,956
3.5
75.7
535
.7
76.4
3,962
4.7
81.1
1,341
1.6
82.7
2,205
2.6
85.3
236
.3
85.6
2,955
3.5
89.1
688
.8
89.9
1,462
1.7
91.6
1,701
2.0
93.6
652 .
.8
94.4
524
95.0
73
95.1
995.1
95.1
216
.3
95.4
320
.4
95.8
380
.4
96.2
50
.1
96.3
27
0 (03
')
96.3
81,208
96.3
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? TOP SECRET RUFF
CIA RR GS 63-23
Correlation of Construction Timing at Soft ICEM Complexes
and
Effective KEYHOLE Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network
Date of start
of construction
Percent of rail network
along which complexes
would be recognizable
Oct - Nov 62
t
41.9
June - Sep 62
51.7
May 62
58.2
Mar - Apr 62?
72.2
Feb 62
76.4
Jan 62 82.7
Dec 61 85.6
Nov 61 89.9
Oct 61
91.6
Aug - Sep 61
93.6
Jun - Jul 61
94.4.1.
May 61
95.0
Feb - Apr 61
95.1
Jan 61
9.14
Dec 60-
95.8
Jun - Nov 60
96.2
before Jun 60 -
96.3
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CIA RR GS 63-23
Table 3
Correlation of Construction Timing at Hard ICBM Complexes
and
Effective KEYHOLE Coverage of the Soviet Rail Network
.N
Percent of ra l network
Date of start along which complexes
of construction would be recognizable-.
May-June 62 41.9
Jan-Apr 62 51.7
Dec 61
Oct-Nov 61
Sep 61
58.2
72.2
76.x+
Aug 61 82.7
Jul 61 85.6
Jun 61 89.9
May 61 91.6
Mar-Apr 61 93.6
Jan-Feb 61 94.4
Dec 60 95.0
Sep-Nov 6o 95.1
Aug 60
Jul 60
Jan-Jun 60
95.4
95.8
96.2
before Jan 60 96.3
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EFFECTIVE* KEYHOLE COVERAGE OF THE SOVIET RAIL NETWORK
Pil I~nrt nd c~nPen!~d "tar aye ~,t el;rcli~ei. (r~rtrd
COHFLPYEU ICBM COMPt!X
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