STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE [Vol. 3 Nos. 1 - 4, 1959]

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T03194A000100030001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 242
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 27, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1959
• Content Type: SINT

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.CONFIDENTIAL
STUDIES
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INTELLIGENCE
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VOL. 3 NO. 1 WINTER 1959
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF TRAINING
CONFIDENTIAL
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All opinions expressed in the Studies gre those of the
authors. They do not necessarily re FeOnf:the; Official
views of the Central Intel!!9e.,11.5! Agency, the Office of
Training or any other organizational component of the
intelligence community.
This material containR information affecting the National
Defense of the United States within the meaning of the
espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which to an unauthorized person is
prohibited by law.
stake
,
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STUDIES IN INTEILIGENC
EDITORIAL POLICY
Articles for the Studies in Intelligence
may be written on any theoretical, doc-
trinal, operational, or historical aspect
of intelligence.
The final responsibility for accepting or
rejecting an article rests with the Edito-
rial Board.
The criterion for publication is whether
or not, in the opinion of the Board, the
article makes a contribution to the litera-
ture of intelligence.
EDITORS
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EDITORIAL BOARD
SuzzasAN IC?rnT, Chairman
LYMAN B. KIRKPATRICK
LAWRENCE R. HOUSTON
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Additional members of the Board
represent other CIA components.
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CONTRIBUTIONS AND DISTRIBUTION
Contributions to the Studies or communications to the editors
may come from any member of the intelligence community or,
upon invitation, from persons outside. Manuscripts should be
submitted directly to the Editor, Studies in Intelligence, Room
25X1 2013 R & S Building and need not be coordinated
or submitted through channels. They should be typed in du-
plicate, double-spaced, the original on bond paper. Footnotes
should be inserted in the body of the text following the line in
which the reference occurs. Articles may be classified through
Secret.
SECRET/
CONTENTS
Policing a Nuclear Test Ban. . . Herbert Scoville, Jr.
Official results and personal views on the conference
of experts in nuclear blast detection. OFFICIAL
USE ONLY
Papers from the Melbourne Conference:
The Assessment of Communist Economic Penetra-
tion Edward L. Allen
Intelligence mobilization for the economic cold war.
SECRET
On Processing Intelligence Information
? Paul A. Borel
Taming and channeling the raw flood for an army
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For inclusion on the regular Studies distribution list call your
of thirsty consumers. CONFIDENTIAL
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The Guiding of Intelligence Collection
office dissemination center or the responsible OCR desk,)
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For back issues and on other questions call the Office of
William P. Bundy
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the Editor
Multiple bridges between the seekers and far-flung
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NIFIDENTIAL
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finders of information. SECRET
The Monitoring of War Indicators. Thomas J. Patton
Progress and prospects in organizing for eternal
vigilance. SECRET
Techniques of Domestic Intelligence Collection
Anthony F. Czajkowski
The intelligence ,officer as salesman extraordinary
at home. CONFIDENTIAL
History's. Role in Intelligence Estimating
Cyrus H. Pc.nicg.
Fallacies in synthetic substitutes for the distillate
of human experience. CONFIDENTIAL
Soviet Intelligence Training. . . Sherman W. Flemer
Details on the institutions Which award the doc-
torate in intelligence. SECRET
SECRET/
Pa
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The Early Development of Communications Intelligence
Wilhelm F. Flicke 99
Failures, successes, and fumbling techniques before
and during World War I. Ork1CIAL USE ONLY
Communications to the Editors 115
In defense of Mr. Tidwell
1 ' SzcErr
Classified Listing of Articles in Vols. I 8g Il 119
CONFIDENTIAL
UNCLASSIFIED ARTICLES
Page
Agent Radio Operation During World War II
Scudder Georgia 125
Recollections of the hazard-happy Joe and his big
brother's devoted solicitude.
Critiques of Some Recent Books on Intelligence. . . . 133
The Zimmermann Telegram, by Barbara W. Tuch-
man Seymour Lutzky
Allied Intelligence Bureau, by Allison Ind
Benjamin Cain
Man Hunt in Kenya, by Ian Henderson
Peter F. Jethmal
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CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ISSUE
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Herbert Scoville, Jr., Chairman of the Joint Atomic E
Intelliffence Committee.1
Edward L. Allen is Chiefof CIA Economic Research.
Paul A. Sorel is Chairman of the USIB Committee on
mentation.
William P. Bundy is a member of the Board of National,
mates.
Thomas J. Patton is one of the pioneers of Indications I
gence.
Anthony F. Czajkowski is an officer of CIA's Contact MI
Cyrus H. Peake is an intelligence analyst of the Departm
State.
Sherman W. Flemer is an intelligence officer specializi
Soviet affairs.
The late Wilhelm F. Flicke, a career officer in the Gt
intercept service from 1919 to 1944, is the author
unpublished history of modern communications i
gence, portions of which have been adapted as an
in this issue.
Scudder Georgia is a veteran CIA communications office
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The story behind the East-West
experts' exploration of nuclear
test detection methods and
their agreed comlusion$,,preg7 _
nant with latent purport for in-
telligence.
POLICING A NUCLEAR TEST BAN
Herbert Scoville, Jr.
The East-West conference on methods of detecting violE
tions of any international agreement to suspend nuclear test
held in Geneva from 1 July to 21 August 1958, was in effect, E
might be expected, a USSR-West conference. The Wester
delegation, a single team with members from the Unite
States, the United Kingdom, France, and Canada, faced fot
separate delegations from the USSR, Czechoslovakia, Polani
and Rumania; but the Satellite delegates only present?
papers apparently prepared by the Soviets and made no sill
stantive contribution to the discussions. The Soviets a
tempted to broaden the scope of the conference to incluc
agreement to stop testing nuclear explosions, but the Westei
delegations succeeded in maintaining the position that ti
agenda was technical, not political, and that the decision
halting tests was not a matter for consideration. Neverth
less the technical discussions were colored throughout wi
political overtones, and several of the technical agreemen
reflect Soviet political concessions.
The conference agreed first on technical methods whil
might be useful in a detection system and on the capabilities
each of these methods for identifying explosions under d
ferent types of conditions. Both sides agreed on the use
acoustic waves, radioactive debris, seismic waves, and elect]
magnetic (radio) signals to detect and identify surface, atm(
pheric, underground, and underwater explosions. For exp
sions at very high altitudes (30 to 50 -kilometers and aboN
several additional methods of detection were discussed a
considered promising, but none were specifically recommend
for inclusion in the system, since experience with explosic
at such heights is lacking.
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After reaching agreement on these basic methods the con-
ferees agreed on the technical equipment which would be re-
quired to put them to effective use, and then consolidated them
into a recommended worldwide control system for policing a
nuclear test suspension, specifying in some detail its technical
requirements and disposition. This recommended system in-
cludes a provision for inspection of locations in which the con-
trol network has detected possibly natural phenomena that it
has not been able to distinguish from nuclear explosion
effects.
The Agreements
Acoustic Waves. It was agreed that with a sufficient distri-
bution of listening posts the acoustic wave method would be
effective in measuring and locating one-kiloton explosions in
the air up to an altitude of 30 or perhaps 50 kilometers. The
acoustic method is not applicable to underground explosions,
but under the oceans even small explosions can be detected by
hydroacoustic methods to distances of 10,000 kilometers. The
instruments which record these air or water pressure waves
can be expected to improve in precision and sensitivity, but
they will not always be able to distinguish between acoustic
signals from nuclear explosions and those from some infre-
quent natural events such as meteor falls, volcanic eruptions,
and submarine disturbances. Acoustic detection must there-
fore be supplemented by other methods, even to identify ex-
plosions which do not occur underground.
Radioactive Debris. It was agreed that analysis of radioac-
tive debris is effective in identifying and locating either fission
or fusion explosions, and three methods of collecting samples
were recommended. Control posts 2000 to 3000 kilometers
apart on the ground would detect one-kiloton explosions in the
air up to 10 kilometers high by sampling fallout 5 to 20 days
afterwards, but would be subject to considerable error in deter-
mining the place of explosion and to some error in determining
the time. If the approximate location of a suspected explosion
is known, however, an aircraft can collect samples two to five
days afterwards for a close determination of time and place.
Shallow underground and underwater explosions are also sus-
ceptible of detection, with less reliability, by these means.
Finally, inspection teams might collect samples from suspected
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Policing A Nuclear Test Ban OFFICIAL USE
sites of underground or underwater explosions, as 12
stir?face tests, and examine them for radioactive debris.
It was recommended that ground posts and existing a
flights over international waters be used for routine sax
and that when other detection data indicated a need:
samples over the territory of any nation, that nation's a
should carry observers from other nations in the cant
ganization in sampling flights over predetermined route
debris method would become increasingly effective wit
longation of a period free of nuclear explosions and wi
perfection of sampling and analysis techniques.
Seismic Waves. Seismic waves provide the Only I)
for initial detection of nuclear explosions undergrou
under waters not linked hydroacoustically with the o
and seismic wave detection is less discriminating than
methods. It was agreed that, giyen a sufficient distri
of control posts and ordinary seismic stations, 90 perc
more of five-kiloton seismic disturbances would be ide
and located within a radius of about five miles, but the id
cation of one-kiloton explosions would require unusually
able conditions and unusually quiet seismic stations wi
range of 1000 kilometers. It was noted that the rang
discrimination of this method would probably be inc
with improvements in apparatus and technique, but s
disturbances not positively identified as natural ea.rthc
would probably still give rise to the greatest number
mands for regional inspections?perhaps as many as
year, even if limited to magnitudes of five kilotons or gi
Radio Signals. The radio signal caused by gamma rad
from an explosion on or above the earth's surface prov
detection means of great range and accuracy, but th
difficulty at ranges greater than 1000 kilometers in I
guishing it from the electromagnetic emissions of lig'
flashes. The conference made reference also to a poss
that the radio signal might be deliberately altered or
nated through shielding the explosion against gamma
sions. It recommended further research to improve dis
nation and develop automatic equipment for this pu
High-Altitude Explosions. The detection of explosic
an altitude of 30 to 50 kilometers and above was discuss
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a theoretical basis, but no recommendations were made. Three
methods were considered. The registration by,enrtb_ sateL_lite,
instruments of gamma radiation and neutrons would detect
nuclear explosions hundreds of thousands of kilometers from
the earth, but there are difficulties in the possibility of shield-
ing the explosion and in uncertainties about background cos-
mic radiation. Light from the explosion itself and the lumi-
nescence of affected upper layers of the atmosphere would be
revealing, but would not be observable from the ground in
cloudy weather. Such an explosion would also create a mea-
surable increase in the ionization of the upper atmosphere,
but an unknown number of natural phenomena might produce
similar effects. The detection of explosions millions of kilo-
meters from the earth was not discussed.
The Control Network. The conference set up recommended
specifications for acoustic, hydroacoustic, seismic, and electro-
magnetic detection equipment, and for apparatus to collect
samples of radioactive debris both on the ground and in air-
craft. It recommended that all ground posts of the control
net be equipped for all methods of detection, except that
hydroacoustic equipment would be needed only on islands and
ocean shores and in ships. Ships could also collect debris
samples and might use the radio and aeroacoustic methods
with reduced effectiveness, but could not use the seismic
method.
The number of control posts required was determined largely
on the basis of the needs of the seismic method, since the dis-
crimination of underground explosions presents the greatest
problems. 160 to 170 land-based posts were recommended, 60
of them on islands, along with about 10 ships. The posts
should be as close together as 1000 kilometers in seismic areas,
but could be diffused to distances of about 1700 kilometers in
aseismic continental areas and of 2000 to 3500 kilometers in
aseismic ocean areas. It was suggested that each post might
require a personnel complement of about 30 specialists plus
supporting staff.
It was agreed that this system would effectively discourage
violations of a nuclear test suspension: it would provide good
probability of detecting and identifying all explosions down to
one kiloton except those set off underground. It would detect
underground one-kiloton explosions but would be able to dis-
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tinguish only a small percentage of them from earthqw
WitEcut cn -site inspection, in fact,- it would be-impossib:
positively identify deep underground nuclear explosions
of high yields, since they could always be claimed to have "
earthquakes. If, however, the ten percent or less of
kiloton disturbances not identified as earthquakes and a r
ber of lesser events taken at random were subject to site
spection, a violator could not feel secure against exposur
mattter what precautions he took.
The identification by inspection of deep underground
clear explosions would still be very difficult. All the rt.
active debris would remain confined in a small volume
underground, and surface evidence might be very difficii
obtain. An inspection team would have to survey the
pect area indicated by the seismic signals for signs betra
the conduct of a test?recently used mine shafts or tun:
excavations, logistic support for tests, or instruments:
This task would of course be easier in completely dese
areas than in inhabited ones where signs of human act
would not be so suspicious. Finally, when suspicion of a
cealed explosion was very high and the location closely
termined, it might be necessary to drill many hundred fee-
a sample of the radioactive material in order to prove a
lation.
The Soviet Attitude
These agreements were not achieved in smooth harmon:
spite of an increasingly evident Soviet desire to avoid :
conclusions. Just before the opening of the conference t
was question whether the Soviets would even attend; but st
the seriousness of the Western delegation was evidence(
the arrival of its members at Geneva, the Soviets also c
and the conference began as scheduled. Then the first
days were spent in political maneuvers, with the Soviets
tempting to force the Western side to agree in advance -
if the conference were a success nuclear testing should CI
The USSR's strong propaganda position resulting from
unilateral announcement of test suspension while the Un
States was engaged in an extensive series of tests mad
difficult to keep the Western insistence on a purely techr
conference from appearing too negative: Soviet propa.ga
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Gould have exploited a breakdown of the conference in the
initial *ages and its published proceedings tazonsidegableoavl?,
vantage. Finally, in the face of Western firmness, the Soviets
requested a day's delay, obviously to obtain instructions, and
then acceded to the Western position. Thereafter the discus-
sions were almost entirely technical in nature, though shaped
in some respects to take account of political factors.
In general, the Soviets attempted to make detection appear
easy, while the Western delegates pointed out the practical
difficulties in detecting and identifying nuclear explosions.
Discrimination of natural events from possible explosions was
usually simplified by the Eastern group. The U.S. representa-
tives generally relied on the statistical use of experimental
data, while the Soviets drew upon simplified theories. On one
occasion, Semenov, a Soviet Nobel prize winner, amused the
Western scientists by saying that the experimental evidence
must have been faulty since it conflicted with his theories.
Specific evidence of Soviet desire for agreement developed
toward the end of the discussion of the first of the methods for
detecting nuclear explosions, that using acoustic waves. The
Soviets had pre.sented theoretical data optimizing the ranges
at which explosions could be detected by this method and had
proposed draft conclusions citing these ranges. Overnight
three Western scientists prepared a statistical analysis, using
data from more than 200 experimental observations of nuclear
tests, which demonstrated that under practical conditions the
ranges would be very much shorter than those given by the
Soviets. The West proposed conclusions citing these short
ranges. After considerable discussion of the validity of the
analyses and their conclusions, the Soviets accepted the West-
ern draft with only minor modifications. This accommoda-
tion was the first real indication that they were prepared to
accept scientific facts at variance with their position in order
to reach agreed conclusions.
A Major Concession
A more important demonstration of Soviet desire for agree-
ment occurred in the discussions which followed on the use of
radioactive debris for detecting and identifying nuclear explo-
sions. Outstanding success in collecting good early debris
samples by aircraft and difficulties experienced in obtaining
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Policing A Nuclear Test Ban OFFICIAL USE 01
?
reliable samples by grp-und collection techniques bad led
'44'irelt to propose the use of aircraft in addition to groi
sampling. The Eastern delegations, on the other ha
strongly held that ground sampling was adequate and relia
and that the use of aircraft was unnecessary, unduly corn
cated, and expensive. This position was obviously based
Soviet political sensitivity to the use of aircraft for intellige
purposes. Discussion on the relative merits of the two ME
ads was protracted. Although the Western delegation pres
for data to support the reliability of the ground detection
tern, the Soviets never succeeded in substantiating their
sound technical position. Private attempts were made to
assure them that our emphasis on aircraft was not based
desire for unrestricted overflight but rather on sound tea
cal grounds, but they remained extremely chary of the in(
sion of any mention of aircraft as an important element
the system.
The Soviets delayed agreement to any conclusions on t
subject for several weeks, apparently awaiting instruct,
from home, and the conference proceeded to other subje
Finally, however, they again acceded, agreeing to the inclus
of aircraft sampling as a basic element of the system and e'
to the provision that overflight of national territory mil
occasionally be required. Such overflights, to be sure, wo
be made by the aircraft of the nation involved, but they wo
have observers from other nations on board. This first ma
political concession was strong proof that if the Western di
gation presented a sound technical position and held to it, -
desire for agreement would lead the Soviets to give way.
In the discussions on the Use of seismic waves for detect
explosions, the Soviets again tended to theorize and to simp:
the problem, particularly with respect to discriminating
tween the seismic signals from explosions and those fr
earthquakes In this case, the Soviet attitude may have bi
due largely to lack of scientific experience in such discrimi
tion. The presentation of the U.S. data on the Ranier und
ground test in September 1957 was convincing to them E
won their gradual recognition of the difficulties involv
After the differences in scientific views had been ironed c
agreement was reached on the seismic method without 1
raising of any major political problems. The Eastern dele
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tions accepted the Western conclusions which stipulated that,
in order to identify-9G percent of the-earthontrancir ermai=?
nate them as possible nuclear explosions, at least five stations
should be so disposed with respect to any seismic disturbance
as to obtain a strong signal capable of determining the direc-
tion of the first motion. This agreement later became a major
factor in the discussions on the over-all detection system and
the number of control posts required.
Next came discussions on the electromagnetic method,
where the problem of discrimination between radio signals
from explosions and those from lightning flashes was a domi-
nant factor. The Soviets presented strong theoretical argu-
ments for reliable discrimination with the use of machine
methods, but no specific data to support their theory. In this
discussion, however, they appeared to be in a stronger technical
position relative to the West than in any of the others.
Technical Disagreements
A major difference of opinion developed at this time, and
continued almost to the end of the conference, on the possi-
bility of shielding out gamma radiation and thereby elimi-
nating the electromagnetic signal from nuclear explosions.
In the course of the discussion one of the U.S. scientists re-
ferred to success in shielding out the electromagnetic signals
in a shallow underground explosion. When quizzed by the
Soviets on how much earth was above the explosion the scien-
tist had to admit the explosion occurred 75 feet underground.
This amused the Soviets to no end; and although later experi-
mental data were presented to demonstrate that even explo-
sions on a tower could be shielded, they never fully accepted
the feasibility of shielding, and tended to ridicule the Western
position. Unfortunately the final record of the conference
does not completely clarify the technical facts on this subject.
This was a good example of how care must be used in selecting
evidence to present at a meeting of this sort.
Since neither side gave any indication of experience in de-
tecting tests at altitudes greater than 30 kilometers?this was
before the U.S. ORANGE and TEAK shots at Johnson Island?
high-altitude detection was discussed largely on a theoretical
basis. Both sides presented material on the possibility of
using gamma and neutron radiation, ionization phenomena,
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Policing A Nuclear Test Ban OFFICIAL USE 01,
and optical methods. The Soviets pressed very strongly
the use of sputniks equipped with gamma and neutron-det ?
tors, while the Western delegation urged equal considerat
of the use of ionization phenomena.
The most violent session of the entire conference occur
during an informal meeting arranged to iron out the ft
wording of the conclusions on these methods. This meeti
which had been intended to last for only a few minutes, star
at ten o'clock on a Saturday morning, broke up for lunch
four PM, and finally continued until after eight in the event
with both sides refusing to make any concessions. The Sovi
exhibited great sensitivity to the Western proposal to use ra
techniques, either passive radiotelescopes or active syste]
probably out of fear of their intelligence potential. No agi
ment was reached that day, and over the weekend the West(
delegation decided not to press further for its views. Insti
it agreed that the conclusions would give some preference
satellite detection over ionospheric phenomena, but wo-
specifically recommend neither for the detection system
cause of the lack of experimental data. When the chairrr
of the Western delegation made this concession at the open
of the following session, Fedorov, chairman of the Soviet d(
gation, was taken aback. He said plaintively that the Sovi
had spent all day Sunday preparing technical papers to ref
the Western position. He was almost unhappy that the W
had conceded since it prevented his delegation from present.
these studies. Furthermore, in consequence of their was
effort, the Soviets were unprepared to proceed to the next it
on the agenda.
Discussions on the equipment to be used by the detect
system were almost entirely tethnical in nature and invol
no serious disagreements. The Soviets now for the first ti
raised the possibility of using ships as platforms for detect
stations in ocean areas where suitable land masses were
available. The usefulness of ships for acoustic and elect
magnetic detection was seriously questioned by the West, E
in an informal session it was agreed that use of these meth,
on shipboard would not be included in the conference conc
sions. When these conclusions were taken up for ratificati
Fedorov apparently had not been briefed that this item I
been eliminated from the text, and the conclusions were n
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fled without further discussion. Later, just after Fedorov
ehastised -the Western delegation for-not adher-
ing to previously agreed conclusions on some other matter, the
subject of shipboard detection again arose and Fedorov re-
ferred to these methods as an essential ingredient of the sys-
tem. When it was called to his attention that he had just
previously agreed to their elimination, he was considerably
embarrassed.
The final text of the conclusions restored a qualified men-
tion of the aeroacoustic and electromagnetic methods on ship-
board. On land, it was agreed, all four basic systems?acous-
tic, seismic, electromagnetic and radioactive debris collection?
would be used at every station. This collocation, found diffi-
cult by the West, was strongly endorsed by the Soviets and is
very likely their practice.
More Political Concessions
The major problem of the conference was the integration of
these various methods into a worldwide system capable of
detecting tests under all possible conditions. At Soviet in-
sistence, the discussion on all the basic methods had been
keyed to small-yield test explosions, down to one kiloton, de-
spite Western desires to include consideration of systems re-
liable only for higher yields. In designing the over-all system,
therefore, the conference initially used the one-kiloton yield as
a basic parameter.
The detection and identification of underground explosions
was the dominant factor in determining the number and dis-
position of the control posts. The initial Western attempt at
designing a system came up with about 650 stations for one-
kiloton worldwide control, as against 100 proposed by the So-
viets. The Soviet proposal was obviously inadequate for dis-
criminating between one-kiloton underground explosions and
earthquakes of equivalent energy, since five of the 100 stations
would never obtain clear signals of first motions from such an
event. The Eastern delegation then proposed the use of exist-
ing seismic stations as a supplement to the detection system,
but the ease with which seismic records could be falsified and
the signals from an explosion made to resemble those of an
earthquake rendered this solution impractical.
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At this point, the Western delegation suggested that a s:
terri-5-6- desigilet-Wifft-tien-il' good discrimination I- -
yields of five kilotons and greater, and the Eastern de1eE
tions accepted this approach. By Western criteria such
system required 160 to 170 stations, while in the Soviet desil
it would have 130. Not unexpectedly, the Soviets agreed
the Western figures just prior to the conclusion of the cc
ference. This acceptance of a system which would involve I
tween 15 and 20 control posts in the USSR, each manned by
or more persons, constituted a second major Soviet politic
concession at the conference.
Since at present it is not always technically possible
identify a nuclear explosion by seismic means alone, inspecti.
of the site of an unidentified event suspected of being a nude
explosion is necessary in order to prove or disprove the occt
rence of a concealed nuclear test. The 160-170 control pc
system would leave unidentified some 20 to 100 events per ye
of energies equivalent to five-kiloton yields or greater, and
is clear that inspection would be required in such caso
Furthermore, if the system is to have any capability for yiel
of less than five kilotons, inspection of suspected sites of lowc
yield tests on a random basis would be required as a deterre
to violations at this level. The Soviets early in the conferen
referred to the need for inspecting sites of suspected nude
explosions but consistently deferred the inclusion of stal
ments to this effect in any of the agreed conclusions. Final]
however, in the conclusions on the control system, tip
agreed to such inspection. This acceptance of the principle
inspection was the third and perhaps most important politic
concession made by the Soviets in order to achieve an a.grei
report.
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Soviet Intentions
Before the conference, many members of the U.S. delegatit
believed that the Soviets were attempting to establish a sit
ation in which they could continue weapons development I
means of concealed tests and at the same time inhibit nude
testing in the West. The conference yielded no evidence
support this thesis; in fact it had led all Western represent
tives with whom the subject was discussed to change thE
views. The Soviets fought strenuously on many points at
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attempted to minimize the difficulties inherent in establishing
an adequate test detection system, but- these-efforts? appeared
aimed entirely at avoiding politically sensitive arrangements
such as large numbers of observers, overflight, and free access
to locations within the Soviet Union. On all of these points,
they ended up by making major concessions.
Furthermore, the Soviets strongly pressed for a high-sensi-
tivity system, one capable of reliably detecting explosions as
low as one kiloton. Had their objective been to design a sys-
tem susceptible of evasion, they would have given much readier
acceptance to the Western proposal to consider higher-Yield
systems. In view of all these considerations, I believe that
the USSR has no present intention of carrying out a concealed
nuclear test in the event of a moratorium, and that it would
openly abrogate such an agreement before risking being
caught in a violation. Moreover, if the principle of inspection
is adequately safeguarded in political discussions and in the
terms of a suspension treaty, the system as designed is ade-
quate to deter any nation from conducting a concealed nuclear
test, at least with a yield greater than one kiloton. Without
on-site inspections such a system would not be capable of pre-
venting deep underground nuclear tests of even moderate
yields.
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-intelligence -Am
organized to support the eco-
nomic cold war and about some
of the methodological problems
it has encountered.
SECRET
25X1
THE ASSESSMENT OF COMMUNIST ECONOMIC
PENETRATION
Edward L. Allen
What the Soviets call "peaceful competition" with the West,
particularly Sino-Soviet Bloc trade and development aid to
underdeveloped countries, has presented a new challenge to
the West and, from our own professional viewpoint, imposed
new tasks upon economic intelligence. The increases in Bloc
trade have been spectacular. Since 1954, Soviet trade with
underdeveloped countries is up 500 per cent; total Soviet trade
with the West is up 100 per cent. Further, the Bloc last year
got 36 per cent of Egypt's trade, 33 per cent of Iceland's, 40
per cent of Afghanistan's, and nearly 25 per cent of Yugo-
slavia's. It succeeded in getting a substantial share of the
trade of Syria, Burma, Iran, Turkey and Ceylon.
U.S. Organization for Cold War Economic Intelligence
It became clear to us three years ago that the USSR and
other members of the Bloc had embarked upon a long-run
program of economic penetration: At that time, we revamped
our internal organizationto provide the essential intelligence
support to government policy-makers. As the Bloc program
grew and the magnitude of the threat became clearer, we ex-
tended our list of consumers far beyond the executive branch
of the government. It was important to keep not only Con-
gress informed, but also influential business groups and the
public in general. The Soviet economic challenge, in the
words of our Director, Mr. Allen Dulles, had become the most
serious challenge our country has faced in peacetime.
The pattern of coordinated reporting is now well established.
Since February 1956, a working group under the Economic In-
telligence Committee has turned out a detailed report every
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SECRET Communist Economic Penetration
two weeks. This working grplials?c2nulogglegfixessasenta,tim
- -of the DepartineritZraate, CIA, the International Coopera-
tion Administration, the military services, and the Depart-
ments of the Treasury, Commerce and Agriculture. Addition-
ally, there is an analytical summary every six months, and a
special quarterly report to the President's Council on Foreign
Economic Policy. The full organizational structure support-
in.g this intelligence effort is illustrated in the chart on page
22.
This organizational arrangement provides a mechanism for
combining the political, military and economic facets of Soviet
penetration activities. Although there is no rigid division of
labor between agencies, there are obvious areas of primacy of
Interest. The Department of State, for example, bears the
primary responsibility for political analysis, while the Depart-
ment of Defense prepares all estimates on illicit trading in
Bloc arms.
On a broader basis, an annual National Intelligence Esti-
mate is produced which covers not only the magnitude, impact
and intensity of Bloc penetration activities, but also relates
these activities to the capabilities, motivations and internal
policies of the Soviets.
Characteristics of Bloc Aid Programs
We have found a number of common characteristics in the
Bloc aid programs for underdeveloped nations. First of all,
a composite prescription is applied on an integrated basis?
a line of credit, technical assistance and training, and in most
cases a commitment to long-term trade. The provision for
payment by means of its own commodities has great appeal
to an underdeveloped nation, particularly one which is having
difficulty in marketing exportable products at adequate prices.
Secondly, the Soviet program is almost entirely a credit pro-
gram. Interest rates are low-2 or 25,i per cent. Repayment
usually begins after the project is completed. Amortization
Is usually prorated over a 12-year period. Our Western inter-
est rates are higher, but our repayment terms are often much
longer, running from 30 to 40 years.
Third, the Soviet program usually covers only the foreign
exchange costs of a project, leaving the balance to be financed
from internal resources. Western development loans have
16 sFrPFT
Communist Economic Penetration SECF
assisted through various devices with some of the- intornal?
nancial requirements.
Fourth, Bloc economic credits are usually related to ind-
trial development. They are granted for sugar mills, cem.i.
plants, and textile mills rather than for sanitation, sewage,
honfusinthg, tdevelopment.
al programs are aimed at increasing
public or socialized sector of the economy, rather than t
private or free enterprise sector. Thus the Russian-br
Indian steel mill at Bhilai is a government-owned pla
whereas the American-built plant at Jamshedpur is a privab
owned expansion of Tata.
Finally, the aid-and-trade deals are independent of railitz
pacts. Non-Communist underdeveloped countries receive B:
military and economic assistance without entanglement in
Bloc military alliance. This practice disarms many; it ler
at least surface credence to the Soviet line that "there is
body here but us peace-loving Russians" as the military a
economic technicians pour in.
Sources of Information on Bloc Economic Aid
We have encountered rather formidable difficulties in es
mating closely the magnitude of Bloc economic assistance
underdeveloped countries. It is true that considerable inf(
mation is usually available from open sources regarding t
amounts of non-military assistance which Bloc countr
promise to deliver. Soviet agreements, in particular, E
widely publicized, especially when large lines of credit are
tended: it has been trumpeted to the world that Afghanist
received a $100 millions credit and Egypt a $175 millions ere(
from the USSR. More important for our purposes, the actr
tetsxof many of the major agreements have been officia
released.
Even when no value figures are announced, informati?
available through attache reports usually permits us to es
mate the approximate total cost and the foreign exchan
component of an economic assistance agreement. Reports c
tamed through overt or covert channels from Western inch
trial firms who have commercial contacts in underdevelop
countries can also provide such data. The cost of the pet
leum refinery Czechoslovakia is building in Syria, for examp
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was estimated in part on ;(he basjg information, obtained
fronr-a--WgrerridOrpoMion whose bid on the project was
rejected.
We are thus confident that our estimates on promised eco-
nomic assistance are fairly accurate. We believe we are with-
in 5 per cent of the correct total figure and no more than 10
per cent in error for individual countries.
The confidence we have in. our estimates of Bloc performance
on assistance agreements is considerably less, and so far we
have published estimates of only the minimum amount of
assistance actually provided. Such estimates are of some
value, but they are an inadequate basis for answering several
pressing questions. In particular, they do not enable us to
determine the amount of indebtedness or the rate of loan
amortization of a country receiving credits from the Bloc.
The major difficulty in assessing the implementation of Bloc
Fi.s.gista.nce agreements is finding sources of raw information.
It is exceptional for officials in underdeveloped countries to be
candid in discussing Soviet projects with U.S. attaches. Debt
statements and ministerial reports of recipient countries are
occasionally helpful. But in general we must rely on de-
livery or shipping notices and clandestine reports on construc-
tion progress. Clandestine reports are also our most valuable
source on the numbers, competence, and activities of Bloc
technicians assigned to aid projects. We feel the need for
much more information on what success the Soviets are having
in getting accepted as the representatives of peace and pro-
gress and the real champion of underdeveloped countries.
Special Problems with Bloc Arms Deals
Estimating the value of military assistance encounters con-
siderably greater difficulties than estimating non-military
assistance. The publicity attending the signature of an eco-
nomic assistance agreement is notably absent in the case of
military agreements. The military estimates must be based
mostly on descriptions of individual shipments or other obser-
vations contained in many discrete military attach?nd clan-
destine reports. The resulting estimates of units of equip-
ment are converted to value terms by applying Bloc prices to
the items in question, if they are known. In some instances
we have had to use the U.S. prices for comparable items in
18 crrpm.
Communist Economic Penetration SECR
order to arrive at a vaine-isthnate. We con.66quatili
that bithough our estimates in terms of equipment units a
reasonably accurate, those in terms of value may be in err
by 25 per cent or more.
The most troublesome consequence of our uncertain
about value estimates is inability to determine with precish
the financial indebtedness to the Bloc of those countries r
ceiving Bloc military assistance. A reliable determination
the amount of cotton Egypt, for example, is shipping eac
year in repayment for the arms it has received from the Bl
would be significant intelligence. But especially in the case
Egypt, the inaccuracy of our evaluations is compounded by tl
fact that some of the arms delivered have been obsolete ax
therefore sold at a discount, and some of them apparently hal
been given without charge. Moreover, some small portion I
the arms shipped to Egypt and Syria have been sent on to I
used in other areas, and we are not certain who ultimate
will pay for these.
Sources of Information on Trade
Collection of data on Bloc external trade is considerab:
simplified by the fact that most non-Communist countri(
issue periodic reports on the value and pattern of their foreig
commerce and we therefore do not have to depend on Comm
nist sources. Statements issued by Bloc countries, as we
as information obtained through clandestine collection, pri
vide means of cross-checking sources. When there are di
crepancies between estimates made on the basis of official nor
Communist compilations and the statements of Bloc corn
tries, we do not automatically assume that the Communisi
are lying.
An early estimate of Soviet shipments of machinery an
transport equipment to underdeveloped countries in 1956, fc
example, showed only about 20 per cent of the amount claime
by the USSR. This discrepancy, we ultimately conclude(
probably resulted from inaccurate item classification in th
recipient countries. Underdeveloped countries often have ur
tidy or inexact customs procedures. Even when a standar
classification system is used, customs officials are frequentl
lax in establishing proper criteria to be used by their opei
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SECRET Communist Economic Penetration
ating personnel. Indian practices are particularly annoying
in this respect. In their official reports of commodity imports,
items accounting for as much as two-thirds of the value of im-
ports from the USSR have been listed in the unspecified "all
other" category. Since among the underdeveloped countries
India is a major Bloc customer, the errors in India's com-
modity reporting may have a considerable effect on our esti-
mates of total Bloc trade.
Other underdeveloped countries have similar bad habits.
Most of them publish trade data in a very leisurely fashion.
None is up to date in releasing statistics on commodities. No
country includes shipments of military items in its reports.
There is also the usual problem of re-exports involving third
nations, compounded in the Soviet case by the employment of
brokers and trading fronts for sensitive transactions. Finally,
countries which have multiple exchange rates, such as Egypt
and Argentina, present particular difficulties when we attempt
to evaluate their trade in terms of dollars.
New Tasks for Intelligence
There is a need for detailed performance information, be-
yond the question of volume and money value, on Bloc develop-
ment aid programs. Part of the Western effort in underde-
veloped nations is devoted to highlighting for these newly
emerging countries the dangers of dealing with the Bloc, to
pointing out the advantages of dealing with the West wherever
possible. So we not only need to report that country x re-
ceived a cement plant from the Bloc at a certain price, but
also to report the plant's reliability, relative efficiency, and
the quality of its product.
And it is not enough for intelligence to measure current
trends and performance in Bloc trade and aid. We
have, in addition, the important task of anticipating future
Soviet moves, of pointing out where economic, military or
political problem areas are developing which could present the
Bloc with opportunities for exploiting weaknesses. This must
be done early in the game if Western policy-makers are to
have an opportunity to move in first or to capitalize on some
action of the Bloc.
20 SECRET
Communist Economic Penetration SECRET
Both in the anticipation of future Bloc moves and in the
detailed analysis of Bloc development aid performance to date,
I believe that we in the intelligence field need to do a lot more
work.
Strategic Trade Controls
The other side of the economic cold war coin is the strategic
trade control program. We in CIA play a major role in pro-
viding the interagency committee structure of the U.S. Gov-
ernment with intelligence support for the development and
enforcement of international and U.S. security export con-
trols against the Sino-Soviet Bloc. This intelligence support
consists primarily in estimating the significance of certain
Western commodities, technology, and services to the war po-
tential of the Bloc.
U.S. unilateral controls, as you are aware, are broader than
the international ones, and require separate administration.
There are therefore two major interagency committees in-
volved in the control of strategic exports, one dealing with
problems of multilateral export controls and their enforce-
ment and the other with those of unilateral export controls.
The CIA participates in an advisory capacity at each level of
these committees up through the National Security Council,
as indicated by the dashed lines in the appended chart.
Reports on Bloc exports and imports are often useful in
pointing to economic strengths or weaknesses in the Bloc, but
one can easily exaggerate an apparent economic strength or
weakness by relying solely on commodity trade data. The
USSR, in particular, has sometimes exported machinery and
equipment known to be in domestic short supply (rolling mills
and agricultural machinery, for instance) when such exports
have been judged to be of net Soviet advantage. Similarly, in
reviewing Soviet purchases from underdeveloped nations, it is
prudent not to seize on every import of foodstuffs or industrial
raw materials as proof of economic weakness in respect to
that commodity.
Commodity studies of Bloc foreign trade will rarely reveal
anything more than specific short-term soft spots in the pro-
duction pattern. This type of information is useful for trade
control purposes, but it is inadequate as an indicator of the
SECRET 21
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Communist Economic Penetration
?
22
Working Groups
0
US
0
a)
00. C?
e1-1i Z.)
g
c.)
1111 '1
I ill 4 I 1 231
CD
os giE c?octil
to 21EA1V10
0.70P,
SECRET
Communist Economic Penetration SECRET
overall capability of the Bloc to achieve its objectives in the
cold war. The real capability of the Bloc is revealed only in
a close survey of its economic structure and its production and
growth characteristics. The basic facts are the $180 billions
of current gross national product for the USSR and the an-
nual growth rate of about 10 per cent in Soviet industry, a
GNP of nearly $70 billions for the European Satellites and of
over $60 billions for China.
Institutional characteristics, in particular the bilateral na-
ture of Soviet trade, the isolation of the Soviet price structure,
and the inconvertibility of the ruble, may cause the USSR
serious problems in its future trade outside the Bloc. They
have not seemed, however, to be a serious constraint so far.
To determine Bloc economic weaknesses and strengths, and
to estimate the impact of the strategic trade control program
as a whole, we look primarily to Soviet domestic production
capabilities. The large and rapidly expanding production ca-
pacity of the USSR, complemented by the European Satellites
and to an increasing extent by Communist China, is an im-
pressive indicator.
SECRET 23
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The bases for the aggressive
U.S. a u?roach to documenta-
tion
25X1
CONFIDENTIAL
ON PROCESSING INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION
Paul A. Sorel
The cycle of organizational activity for intelligence pur-
poses extends from the collection of selected information to
its direct use in reports prepared for policy makers. Between
these beginning and end activities there lie a number of func-
tions which can be grouped under the term information proc-
essing. These functions include the identification, record-
ing, organization, storage, recall, conversion into more useful
forms, synthesis and dissemination of the intellectual content
of the information collected. The ever-mounting volume of
information produced and promptly wanted and the high cost
of performing these manifold operations are forcing a critical
review of current practices in the processing field.
Storing and Retrieving Information
Efficient and economical storage and retrieval of informa-
tion is by all odds the toughest of the processing problems.
Millions are being spent on it by the research libraries of uni-
versities, of industry, and of government. Even as we meet
here today, an international conference is under way. in Wash-
ington at which new means of storing and searching for
scientific information are being discussed.
For intelligence, storing and retrieving information is a par-
ticularly vexing problem. Our Document Division alone proc-
esses daily an average of some 1,500 different intelligence docu-
ments, received in an average of 15 copies per document This
is exclusive of special source materials, cables, newspapers,
press summaries, periodicals, books, and maps. Since these
reports come from scores of different major sources, the daily
volume fluctuates and shows lack of uniformity in format, in
reproduction media, in length and q ality of presentation, and
in security classification. As they come in they must be read
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CONFIDENTIAL On Processing Intelligence Information
with an eye to identifying material of interest to some 150
different customer offices or individuals.
We have a general library of books and periodicals, whose
operations approximate those of the conventional library. We
have several registers (in effect special libraries) through which
we handle special source materials, biographic data on scien-
tists and technicians, films and ground photographs, and data
on industrial installations. Most of these materials are sub-
ject to control through indexes of IBM punched cards.
We have a collection of two million intelligence reports mini-
aturized by microphotography. Short strips of film are
mounted in apertures on IBM punched cards filed in numerical
sequence. Access to these cards, from which photo reproduc-
tions can be made, is obtained through an organized index of
IBM cards now numbering eight million. Thus access to the
document itself is indirect, through codes punched into the
index cards to indicate subject, area, source, classification,
date and number of each document. The data on index cards
retrieved in response to a particular request is reproduced on
facsimile tape and constitutes the bibliography given the cus-
tomer. This system?which seeks to fit a given request with
the relevant "intelligence facts" on hand?we call the Intello-
fax system.
These then are our assets. I'll say no more at this time
about problems in connection with the general library, or
those of operating our registers, since they are in many re-
spects variations on the theme of our concern with the effec-
tive operation of the Intellofax system.
Demands made on our document collection stem from three
types of requests:
Requests for a specific document to which the analyst has
a reference or citation;
Requests for a specific bit of information in answer to a
specific question;
Requests for all information relevant to a subject which
may or may not be well defined.
Our major difficulties are almost all connected with the last of
these three, the one which requires a literature search. In
searching unclassified literature we rely on commercially pro-
duced reference aids, but in searching classified materials we
26
CONFIDENTIAL
On Processing Intelligence Information CONFIDENTIAL
use the Intellofax punched card index. This index we would
use to retrieve, for example, information responsive to a re-
quest for "anything you have on the movement of iron ore
from Hainan to Japan between 1955 and 1958, classified
through Secret, and exclusive of CIA source material."
Intellofax is a high-cost operation. Only 10 to 15 per cent
of the questions put to the information section of our Library
are answered by literature search; yet some 30 people are used
in the necessary coding, and another 50 to 60 in IBM and aux-
iliary operations exclusively in support of Intellofax. On the
other hand, some portion of this cost would be incurred in
operating any alternative system even at minimum level; and
Intellofax makes possible the organization of bibliographic ma-
terial in various forms and at speeds which would not be prac-
tical under a manual system.
Search results, ? however, are not uniformly accurate. We
recently tested the accuracy of the Intellofax system by hav-
ing a task team of three analysts from a research office con-
duct a controlled experiment. Five subjects, corresponding
to common types of reports produced by that office, were se-
lected. The test indicated quite conclusively that the system
does an efficient job of retrieving documents referring to spe-
cific objects or categories (tracks, factories, serial numbers),
but that it is less satisfactory in handling a more general sub-
ject, such as industrial investments in China. A comparison
with the analysts' own files showed very satisfactory Intello-
fax performance in retrieving documents placed in the system,
but some documents in the analysts' files were not retrieved.
Reruns with the same code patterns yielded consistent results.
The inaccuracies of the Intellofax system reflected in the
above and other tests can be reduced by revising procedures
and improving supervision, but they cannot be eliminated alto-
gether. In literature search a set of symbols assigned to in-
coming documents is used to provide the searcher with a
clue to the pertinence of any document to the request he is
servicing. This set of symbols is in the nature of an index,
but different people viewing these symbols may give them dif-
ferent interpretations. This makes the problem complex, for
the determination that there exists a meaningful relation be-
tween even two pieces of information depends on many differ-
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CONFIDENTIAL On Processing Intelligence Information
ent, often subtle criteria which elude unequivocal symbolic
representation.
The solution of the accuracy problem would appear to turn
on the ability to develop a master set of symbols, a Code, large
enough to cover an extremely wide variety of subjects and
areas and small enough to be contained on an index card, one
applicable to diverse documents containing fragmentary, fugi-
tive and often seemingly unrelated information, and at the
same time conducive to uniform application initially by those
coding incoming documents and later by those seeking to re-
trieve them. To prepare such a Code is a tough assignment
today. The job is not likely to be easier for some time.
It is relevant at this point to invite your attention to the
views on this subject of the Working Party organized last
year I _ I to exam-
ine the possibility of establishing a common reference service:
Ibooks of reference
and finalized intelligence reports. It would be impracticable
to try and include the welter of documents from which such
finished reports are built up; even if it were practicable, it
would be an immense task beyond our resources?
I disagree. Not as to the difficulty of the task or its rela-
tively high cost, but as to its impracticability. I believe the
solution lies in a) selectivity in identifying those documents
to be held by the Center, and b) the organization of those
documents into discrete collections, each controlled by an
index suitable to its particular requirements. This is the ap-
roach we have taken, more by accident than by design. Such
an approach makes it possible to cope with small problems,
even though the big problem may still be unmanageable.
Reference Service and the Research Function
Where central reference services have been organized inde-
pendent of research offices, it soon becomes evident that the
functional line of demarcation between them and the research
units is not clear. This becomes important when it results in
IModern Methods of Handling Information, 15 Oct. '57
(Confidential), para. 6.
28 CONFIDENTIAL
On Processing Intelligence Information CONFIDENTIAL
duplication of effort or, worse, in non-use of reference mate-
rials by the researcher laboring under the misimpression that
he has all relevant documents in his possession. Today's re-
searcher, like his predecessor, feels insecure without files
which he can call his own. In such a situation we must have
a proper regard for tradition, but sometimes it is difficult to
distinguish tradition from inertia. Recently our Biographic
Register, receiving a report published by a research office,
found that failure on the part of the author to check the
Register files had resulted in some one hundred errors or
omissions.
It must be decided whether a reference service is to be
active or passive, dynamic or static. To take a simple case, a
passive approach to reference service would mean that refer-
ence personnel would merely keep the stacks of the library in
order, leaving it to research analysts to exploit the collection.
Under the active approach, on the other hand, reference ana-
lysts would discuss the researcher's problem with him and
then proceed, as appropriate, to prepare a bibliography, gather
apparently pertinent documents, screen them, check with
colleagues in other departments for supplementary materials,
make abstracts, have retention copies made of popular items in
short supply, initiate a requirement for supplementary field
service, or prepare reference aids. In CIA we aim at active
rather than passive reference service. How active we are in
a particular case is a function of the customer's knowledge of
our services, his confidence in us, and how pressed he is to get
the job done.
Once a separate facility has been set up to provide reference
services it is not long before it publishes. This comes about
for several reasons, the least controversial of which is that a
customer has made a specific request. Thus our science ana-
lysts may call for a compilation of biographic data on the indi-
viduals most likely .to represent the Soviet Union at a forth-
coming international conference on the peaceful uses of atomic
energy. We call this type of publication a research or refer-
ence aid. Some are citiite specific; others are more general,
being prepared in response to a need generally expressed. A
number of different customers may, for example, make known
that it would be very helpful to have a periodic compilation of
all finished intelligence reports and estimates for ready refer-
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ence. Or the need may be implied rather than expressed: the
reference analyst may note that over a period of time the de-
mand on him for biographic data about Soviet scientists is
heavy, many requests calling for much the same information
furnished earlier to others. The result: the production of a
major reference aid along the lines of our "Soviet Men of
Science." And naturally it isn't long until a revised edition
is called for.
Criteria for determining when and when not to summarize
information holdings in a general reference aid are elusive.
It is similarly difficult to define the proper scope of the general
reference aid. How far can it go before the researcher con- '
siders it an infringement on the research activity for which he
is responsible? This question has implications beyond those
readily apparent. Quite basic is the feeling among research
personnel that they and their mission are a cut above the ref-
erence officer and his role. A manifestation of this attitude is
the steady flow of competent people out of reference into re-
search, with only a trickle coming the other way. I doubt
whether the inconsistency of this position is appreciated in
view of the joint effort required by research and reference ac-
tivities to provide the soundest base possible for the research
effort.
In my view the legitimate limits of the reference aid can
best be arrived at in terms of the highest level of service ex-
pected of the reference officer. Stated simply it is this: to.
make
make known the availability of services and information the
existence of which may be unknown to the researcher; and,
given a task, to make the preliminary selection of materials
to meet the particular need of a particular user. This may
Involve bulk-reduction operations (such as abstracting) to
leave a smaller quantity of material containing everything;
pertinent to the user's problem, or conversion operations
(such as translation) to get information in usable form. I ?'
would even say that the reference function includes evalua-
tion, evaluation of the reliability of information. To the re-
searcher must be left the determination of its significance for,
the present; to the estimator its significance for the future;
and to the policy-maker the indicated course of action.
30
CONFIDENTIAL
On Processing Intelligence Information CONFIDENTIAL
Machine Application to Documentation Problems
In processing intelligence information, increases in effi-
ciency may depend upon the adoption of techniques involving
automata. This is especially the case when savings of time
are sought. But as soon as you consider automation, that is,
the inclusion in your processing system of a machine as an
integral part of it, you are faced with the need to make de-
cisions different in nature from those made with respect to
the desirability of expanding staff or restricting functions.
It is a difficult problem to achieve an optimum balance be-
tween man and machine. Among the many considerations
involved there are two important ones which ought to be,
but seldom are, fully explored before you commit yourself to a
particular machine?you should accurately determine the net
gain or loss in terms of time, space, manpower, and money;
and you should be fully aware of the limitations of the ma-
chine and of its use by man. It is often more important to
know what cannot be done with the machine than to look
wholly to what can. 25X
Nevertheless, I would again incline to disagree I
In view of the great initial investment needed to launch
[a mechanized reference system], the very large and per-
sistent requirement for coding, maintenance and other super-
visory skill and the inevitable limitations of machinery when
applied to intelligence processes, we do not think the introduc-
tion of such a system merits further examination.
No one would argue that large investments should be made
in schemes unless they hold promise of relieving major prob-
lems. And the demands of a mechanized reference system
for special skills are admittedly both high and persistent.
However, these factors should be weighed in terms of the
relative costs, not only the cost of alternative ways to solve
the particular documentation problem, but also the cost of
not solving it at all. We take exception to the conclusion that
the limitations of machinery when applied to intelligence proc-
esses are "inevitable." We also believe it unwise to categori?
cally dismiss the introduction of machinery as not meriting
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CONFIDENTIAL On Processing Intelligence Information
further examination. Limitations there are today and will
continue to be. But those which are inevitable are fewer than
Is generally supposed. Only by daring and risking will we
come to know how few are the real limitations of a mechanized
approach to documentation. This philosophy is yielding prom-
ising developments in the fields of microphotographic storage,
automatic dissemination, abstracting, and translation, all
fields of particular concern today.
Microphotography. Both Air Intelligence and CIA are test-
ing a system developed by Eastman Kodak known as Minicard.
This system in essence substitutes a 16 x 32 mm film strip for
the present CIA system of IBM punched index cards corres-
ponding to hard copy or film in the document storage file.
Sell-indexing Minicard document images are read electroni-
cally, not mechanically as IBM cards are. The characteristics
of Minicard make possible a reduction of space requirements
by a factor of 4, and an increase in speed of handling by
a factor of 2. The new system is capable of a level of informa-
tion manipulation and a degree of coding sophistication which
gives promise of radically augmenting the contribution of the
information fragment to the solution of reference problems
requiring a search of the literature. And, contrary to present
practice, the integrity of the file is maintained at all times.
Automatic Dissemination. Air Intelligence is testing a Doc-
ument Data Processing Set designed by Magnavox. This is a
general-purpose computer especially designed for problems
requiring close correlation. Requests for information form
the reference file against which incoming documents must be
compared. Up to 20,000 words specifying the subjects and
areas of interest, other qualifying data (such as evaluation or
type of copy desired) , and user identifications are stored to de-
fine the requirements of 160 users. When a document is to
be disseminated, its subject and area coverage, previously coded
and punched into paper tape, is fed into the machine. The
machine searches its file of requirements and prints outS a
list of those who have requested such a document, the total -
number of copies needed, and the form in which it is wanted.
Speed and uniformity of performance rather than financial
economy is what the Air Force is after in this case.
19
On Processing Intelligence Information CONFIDENTIAL
Automatic Abstracting. Army intelligence and IBM are
working on means for producing, entirely by automatic means,
excerpts of Army field reports that will serve the purposes of
conventional abstracts. At a recent demonstration the com-
plete text of a report, in machine-readable form, was scanned
by an IBM 704 data-processing machine and analyzed in ac-
cordance with a standard program. Statistical information
derived from word frequency and distribution was used by the
machine to compute a relative measure of significance, first
for individual words and then for sentences. Sentences scor-
ing highest in significance were extracted and printed out to
become the "auto-abstract." Adoption of this method of pro-
ducing abstracts of overseas reporting would require the use
of a flexowriter in the field. When the original report is
typed on stencil, a flexowriter tape would be produced simul-
taneously as a byproduct and would accompany the report to
headquarters. There tapes in sequence would be fed into a
computer and auto-abstracts printed out.
Mechanical Translation. The only successful Free World
demonstration of machine translation to date took place on
20 August 1958, when a continuous passage of 300 sentences
taken from Russian chemical literature was translated by the
Georgetown University research group, under CIA and Na-
tional Science Foundation sponsorship. An IB_M 704 computer
was programmed with the appropriate grammatical, syntag-
matic and syntactic rules, and a Russian-English vocabulary
was introduced into its memory system. The machine alpha-
betized the text, determined the lexical equivalents of the
words, reconstructed the text, performed the necessary logical
operations, and printed out the English translation. Only
minor stylistic editing was required to make the product com-
pare favorably with a translation made by a linguist. The
rate of translation was about 24,000 words per hour. With
improved input equipment (reading machines), rates up to
100,000 per hour are foreseen as possible. Research has al-
ready started on mechanical translation from Polish, Czech,
Serbo-Croatian, French, Arabic, and Chinese. Soviet research
in this field is considerably ahead of ours.
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CONFIDENTIAL On Processing Intelligence Information
Outlook
In closing this general review of aspects of the intelligence
documentation problem, we should look briefly at certain
trends which affect us all. First, channels for procuring pub-,
lications and techniques for storing and retrieving the physi-4
cal document are extensive and well developed. The immed-
iate outlook is for no basic change in ways and means in this:
field, but rather an expansion and intensification of present
methods.
Second, the type of reference or information service coming ;
to be required will demand action primarily in preparing refer-
ence personnel to give assistance of higher quality than is
given today. Reference tools will need to be improved also,
but this is likely to follow if there is a more sophisticated
reference officer to create a demonstrable need for them.
The increase in amount and kinds of material available will
call for more intense exploitation of it by the research analyst;
he in turn will by necessity rely increasingly on the reference
officer for first-cut selection and evaluation. Reference offi-
cers will therefore need greater subject competence, more
language ability, and a wider training and experience in all .
aspects of intelligence documentation. Already a number of
American corporations are using information specialists as
members of research teams. This approach deserves testing
in intelligence.
Third, in the field of literature searching, specialized -
schemes will be developed to fit the needs of specialized users.
While general theory will continue to be developed, pragmatic
approaches to problems based on an analysis of the way users ;
employ services and exploit materials will play an increasingly '-
important role. Proved systems employed by reference cen-
ters will be simplified and adapted for use by the individual ,
analyst to enable him to control the literature he requires in ;
his immediate possession. The analyst in turn will provide the
central system with the means of subject retrieval in his spe-
cialized field as a by-product of the way he controls his files.,
In this field, machines will long continue to play a secondary
role.
Fourth, the present and future demands for reference serv-
ice will lead to increased use of machines where these can be.
- 34
CONFIDENTIA1.1`:
On Processing Intelligence Information CONFIDENTIAL
introduced without jeopardizing the performance of essential
intellectual operations. This fact and the increasing volume
of information which must be processed will bring about more
centralization. The problem then becomes one of insuring
that central reference is at least as responsive to research
needs as the reference facility which is an integral part of the
research area. The solution is to be found in an approach
which integrates the information-processing activities, wher-
ever performed, into a single system within which collection,
processing, and user components operate along well-defined
lines.
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contemplates the
tortured progress of a complex
organism in getting its food
from hand to mouth.
SECRET
25X1
THE GUIDING OF INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION
William P. Bundy
In tackling the subject labelled "Procurement" in the pro-
gram for this conference, it seems most appropriate to discuss,
for an audience predominantly of researchers or intelligence
producers, not the whole range of collection activities, but
simply the link between the people who use raw intelligence on
the one hand and collectors of raw intelligence (or should I say
"procurers?") on the other. To make even this restricted
subject manageable, I have confined my illustration almost
entirely to the procurement of positive intelligence on the
Sino-Soviet Bloc, excluding other geographic areas and exclud-
ing also the effort in support of intelligence collection opera-
tions themselves.
The essential problem is of course simply one of communi-
cation between human beings. No one who has ever done
research on his own will have the slightest doubt that the
ideal unit is one?a single person doing his own collecting and
producing with no intermediaries whatever. Or one might
grudgingly accept as a model Mark Hopkins' picture of the
true university?the collector on one end of a log and the
producer on the other.
If these be only dreams, I do still recall one actual large or-
ganization that seemed to me to approach the ideal. During
the last war I was at a place called Bletchley in England.
There, in three low brick wings of the same building, side by
side,?called, poetically enough, "huts"?were housed respec-
tively a final producer apparatus, an intermediate processing
apparatus, and a collection control apparatus. They were
within easy walking distance, and the people in them knew
each other by their first names and had been in their jobs
long enough to have quite a knowledge of each other's prob-
lems. The result was a tremendously efficient collection ?per-
?
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ation, which balanced intelligence priorities and needs fully
against the need to maintain assets for stand-by purposes,
and all with what was?even by British standards?a mini-
mum of red tape: As I recall, the weekly so-called control
meeting used to take about an hour to dispose of all its busi-
ness, including discussion and action on new ideas. I had
never seen anything like it.
And I don't really expect to again. For that guidance sys-
tem had two great advantages unlikely ever again to exist in
combination in a large-scale effort. First, a relatively limited
focus, almost wholly military, within which the basic substan-
tive priorities were largely self-explanatory and seldom con-
troversial. And second, a single collection system, and that
of such a nature that its capabilities, though flexible in degree,
were limited and readily tested for possible expansion. You
knew pretty well what could be done, and if you didn't know
you could find out fairly quickly. In other words, both the
intermediate processor and the collector knew what the pro-
ducer wanted, and both the producer and the intermediate
processor knew what the collector could do. Where these
conditions exist, and where you have continuity of first-class
people, it would take a most imaginative management con-
sultant to contrive a system that could gum the works.
There are in intelligence today a very few areas thus hap-
pily self-contained. Map procurement, I think, is one. But by
and large we are now in a situation where the demands are
manifold, the priorities difficult to keep clear, and the collec-
tion capabilities variable, hard to appraise and extremely
limited relative to the demands. In these circumstances guid-
ance becomes one of our major problems, one testing the com-
petence, experience and knowledge of our people, and testing
also our capacity to devise administrative methods than can
assist the infirm and the temporary while not blocking the op-
erations of the sophisticated and imaginative professional.
The Hydra-Headed U.S. Consumer and Collector
The complexity of the problem of guidance is indicated by
the variety of consumers and of collection mechanisms in the
U.S. intelligence community. - (I am using the term "con-
sumer" in the broadest sense, in order to avoid shades of dis-
tinction among the various stages of processing or intelli-
38 SECRET
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
ence production and the various policy-making levels of con-
sumption. From the collector's standpoint the rest of us are,
in truth, all "consumers.") On the consumer side the prin-
cipal units are:
1. State
2. Army
3. Navy
4. Air Force
5. Joint Staff
6. AEC
7. CIA ORR?for Bloc economic and worldwide geographic
matters
8. CIA OSI?for basic scientific matters
9. CIA OCI?f or current intelligence at the national level,
including indications, and for research in support of
current intelligence
10. CIA ONE?for national intelligence estimates (usually
via one of the other consumers)
On the collection side, the list is even more extensive. The
collection activities can usefully be broken down into two
categories: first, what I shall call "self-contained" systems,
such as the Foreign Service (including foreign aid and infor-
mation people) and the system of military attaches, which
work primarily for their own parent organizations, and second,
a larger number of "common concern" systems, service or-
ganizations which work primarily for others. Of these lat-
ter, some use technical methods of a classified nature, for ex-
ample the Atomic Energy Detection System and ELINT.
Others, who make use of unclassified technical methods or
simply "people and paper," include the following:
00/Contact (for domestic collection)
00/rBID (for foreign broadcasts)
00/FDD (for material that comes by subscription)
Publication Procurement
Map Procurement
OCR Liaison & Collection (representing government of-
ficials not directly connected with intelligence)
Clandestine Services
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In addition some "coramon concern" services are not com-
plete organizations, but make use of the facilities of one or
more of the others:
SovMat
Defectors and returned German scientists
East-West Exchanges
Trade Fairs
International Conferences
Graphics
It would be pleasant to report the hitherto undisclosed
existence of an IBM 704, or Hollerith Hurricane, that handled
all requirements and steered them effortlessly to the right
collectors. Alas, this is not the case! There is no central
mechanism that attempts to do a thorough policing and sort-
ing job on the requirements any one producer may choose to
levy on collection. Basic to our entire system, in fact, is the
principle that the individual producing agency?responsible
for its aspect of total intelligence production?may levy upon
any one, or upon all, of the collection facilities to meet its
needs.
Whether this right is, in a given case, any more effective
than Owen Glendower's ability to "call spirits from the vasty
deep" is, of course, another matter. But at least the require-
ment can be levied, and unless patently outrageous it will
reach the designated collectors. For almost all requirements
levied by one agency on the collection facilities of another, this
will be via the good offices of our, CIA Office of Central Refer-
ence, which while not policing does fulfill an important func-
tion in registering, numbering, and transmitting requirements
for most of the non-technical forms of collection.
In this, as in many other respects, it is useful?and histori-
cally important?to keep in mind the distinction between
those collection systems that are organic parts of operating
and intelligence producing departments?the "self-contained"
systems?and those that exist for the benefit entirely of
others. Foreign Service reporting and the attach?perations
of the military services historically antedate the existence of
any overall intelligence framework. An ambassador today
hardly thinks of his reporting work as being the fulfillment of
An
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
a "requirement," and indeed in the formal sense it seldom is,
for our senior department is understandably reluctant to tell
its top people abroad what they should look for, at least in
the political sphere, by the historic overt methods of diplo-
macy. As for the attach?ystem, the intimate ties between
the attach?nd his base are such that, armed as he may be
with an apparatus of guides and requirements, most of his
reporting is done, in practice, in accordance with a "felt neces-
sity" derived from daily cable exchanges.
Not so with the other collection systems?overt, clandes-
tine, and increasingly the various technical systems?oper-
ated as a matter of "common concern."' These have no direct
base to report to (even those sharing CIA parenthood with pro-
clueing offices must and do serve other masters with at least
equal zest), and they must hence be governed by an unruly
flow of requirements from their many consumers, and must
make shift with this as best they can.
Agreed Objectives
To help reduce this state of potential anarchy to relative
order, the U.S. community has evolved a commonly agreed
framework for the overall intelligence effort at all stages a
set of Priority National Intelligence Objectives. These PNIO's
have developed from a slow start. Originated in September
1950, largely on the initiative of the military services, they
consisted at first of a short statement of about eight cate-
gories of key importance. Along about 1953, this statement
seemed inadequate to cover the breadth of factors involved in
the cold war, and it was decided that the Board of National
Estimates, from its Olympian vantage point, should coordi-
nate an effort to set up a longer list with more clearly defined
categories. Substantively, the aim was to include political
and economic objectives in perspective with military-related
ones, and to separate the really crucial military-related objec-
tives from those of more routine nature.
Since that time, the Estimates Board has continued with
the assignment, revising the list annually in a far-from-per-
This term has a precise statutory meaning in our National Security
Act of 1947, from which many functional charters derive. It is used
here more broadly, to cover all collection work not done predomi-
nantly for the account of the collecting agency itself.
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functory exercise culminating in review at the top intelli-
gence level and circulation for information to top policy-
makers as well. The document now consists of three cate-
gories of priorities, with a total listing of about 50 items.
The PNIO's set priorities for all intelligence activity, produc-
tion as well as collection. Their greatest weight, however, is
almost certainly in the collection field, where they serve as a
basis for adjusting major priority questions, especially in the
guidance and direction of the "common concern" collection
systems.
But there are also many things the PNIO's do not do, things
that no document of the sort can well do. One is to forecast
what may turn out to be crisis areas at any given time. If a
Communist revolt breaks out in Ruritania, common sense dic-
tates a top-priority effort which in practice would be under-
taken irrespective of Ruritania's normal status as a third pri-
ority. The PNIO's cannot select the Ruritanias of the year
to come?or at least they haven't reached that point yet, in
spite of their being drafted in the Estimates shop.
More generally, the PNIO's are only statements of objec-
tives. In themselves, they are only a most general guide and
framework within which individual levies or major collection
projects can be judged. Many stages of translation are re-
quired before they can become anything like true guidance,
in any specific sense, for collection effort. One of those stages,
for certain areas of intelligence, is provided within the PNIO
framework itself, by a series of Annexes dealing with the
priority economic, scientific-technical, atomic energy, guided
missile, and international communism objectives, and in addi-
tion, in a crucial field which Mr. Patton will describe, one com-
prising the General Indicators List.
These subordinate annexes, drawn up by the several sub-
committees of ITSM charged with the respective subjects, vary
greatly in bite and effect. Those on atomic energy and guided
missiles get pretty well down to cases, and I have no doubt
have a marked effect on the allocation of effort. The scientific
and technical one reads largely in generalities, but does use-
fully highlight some of the important technical breakthrough
issues. There is similar generality in the economic one,
though it too has useful specifics on the Soviet penetration
problem. Clearly any document of this sort runs a major risk
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
of boring the collector with what seems to him largely boiler-
plate, and thus getting no effective impact.
So much for attempts to state objectives. When the effort
started, I find from the historical files, many powerful voices
were raised prophesying nothing but a waste of time. I think
it has not turned out so: certainly the blood on our Estimates
conference tables every year looks real, so somebody must be
getting hurt; and that is a good sign. Nonetheless, there are
clear limits to what can be done along these lines.
Generic Practical Problems
There are certain problems of a day-to-day nature in the
consumer-collection relationship common to most forms of
collection which it will be worth while to look at one by one.
They seem to be? associated mainly with five steps in the
process of levying requirements:
1. Defining the requirement, or locating intelligence gaps.
2. Stating the requirement for the collector.
3. Selecting the appropriate collection system.
4. Servicing the return, including supplemental require-
ments.
5. Making specific evaluations and appraising the col-
lector's reporting.
I should say, by the way, that I shall be talking solely about
consumer-originated requirements, leaving out the handling
of requirements originated by collectors themselves for the
purpose of testing or developing a source, or to take advantage
of spot opportunities. This latter type of self-levy is common
and often very important today?particularly, for example,
when our overt collectors learn of projected travel behind the
Curtain by knowledgeable legal travellers?but it raises no
real machinery problem.
Defining the requirement. In the field of modern history
writing, and I am sure other areas of scholarship as well, it
is a commonplace that the great bulk of writers choose a sub-
ject because the available materials are ample, rather than
ask what the key questions are and then seek out and work
on materials however slender. This is a natural human tend-
ency, and in scholarship the immediate cost may be no worse
than massive cases of publisher's indigestion. In intelligence,
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however, the tendency can be fatal, with the massive indig
tion falling to the policy-making reader, while the poor collec
tor goes about his business with no help from the producer in
the middle.
Making the producer stress his gaps rather than his sat*
factions is of course largely a problem in education of the
individual, and toward this education the various priority
lists certainly make some contribution. Yet something more
intensive and specific is needed. In essence, the intelligence
analyst must be taught not to begrudge time spent in pointing
out gaps in information (and how they might be met) as an,
essential part of his job?and one to be done as early as possi-
ble. It seems to me that the difficulty in educating the
analyst varies directly as the amount of material available to
him. Our scientific analysts, having lived for years on a very
thin diet indeed, seem to become collection-minded very easily.
So too with our economic analysts in earlier years. But our
political analysts, and lately, with the flood of published ma-
terials, our economic ones as well, need fairly constant tending
and reminding of this aspect of their jobs.
We have a number of devices on this score that may be
worth mentioning. Our current intelligence, office has long
had its men do a periodic four-month review of priority re-
quirements (called Periodic Requirements List, or PRL) which
for economic matters draws heavily on the Bloc economic
analysts in ORR and which is also now reviewed in draft by
State. In our estimative process, we have had for some years
a system of post-mortems, in which the estimate writers state
in broadbrush terms where they thought the available infor-
mation was inadequate to support good answers to key ques-
tions?or, more realistically, as good answers as they thought
might be obtainable by more or different effort. These are
then taken by each agency and, we hope, made the basis of in-
tensified collection.
, Recently our Bloc economic analysts have instituted a prom-'
ising procedure under which each division is responsible for a
periodic statement of its gaps in intelligence. These must be
stated not merely in general terms, but in terms of possible
avenues of approach to solution?target lists and so on. And
most broadly of all, our whole National Intelligence Survey,
operation?with a formal research framework, bibliographies,
AA
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
etc .?serves to highlight excellently gap areas in our world-
wide knowledge. Significant as these devices are, however,
we are surely a long way from erring on the side of overempha-
sizing the problem of gap-detention.
Informing the collector. Once you have your gaps spotted,
you must make perfectly sure that they cannot be filled by
some available materials. The analyst who reaches for the
requirement sheet before he has picked all the brains within
reach and made a truly conscientious search of the open liter-
ature and available reporting (using Mr. Borel's massive tools
as they should be used)?such 511 analyst is indeed a deplorable
species. But unfortunately, I am told, not non-existent or
even perhaps on the decline. Granted that the need has been
found real, however, it must then be stated precisely and in-
telligibly to. the collector, and must ask him for something
within his potential capacity to provide. Thus this step may
in practice often follow the next one, the selection of a col-
lection method.
In the drafting of requirements we have increasingly
stressed the inclusion of as much background as possible to
make what is wanted absolutely clear to the field collector.
But the ultimate questions must, at all costs, be firm and
specific. A requirement that asks the production capacity of
a Soviet plant, without more, is of no use whatever to the
collector. Rather the requirement should seek feasible par-
ticular answers that bear on this desired conclusion. More-
over, great things can sometimes be accomplished if the re-
quirement can be pitched so as to elicit useful responses by an
untrained as well as a trained observer. You may not have a
returnee scientist, but only a layman, so it behooves the ana-
lyst to think in terms of a layman's capacity to remember
floor spaces, height of stacks, size of loading facilities, and so
on. And even if you have (and can personally brief) an expert
collector, you must still stress your precise gaps and go over
ways to meet them.
Choosing the collector. If our analyst is fortunate enough
to have one of the self-contained collection systems at his dis-
posal, we need shed no tears for him. If he is in State, he may
not be able to induce his department or the Kabul Embassy to
share his interest in a full count of the goats in Afghanistan,
but his only problem will be persuasion. A far more serious
/IS
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case is that of the Bloc economic analyst who, in pursuit of his
top-priority study of rocket-fuel inputs, finds that he
any real dope about the most prominent known Soviet produc-
ing facility. To what collection agency shall he turn?
This, frankly, is a major problem with us. I am told tha
something over 50% of the requirements that come through
our inter-agency machinery now arrive "cold"?that is, with-
out prior warning to the collectors or discussion of what they
can or cannot be expected to accomplish. Such a requirement
may often name multiple possible collectors, and each of these
may conscientiously accept the requirement, try to. find out
more about it, and then make an effort to fill it. It would al-
most be better if they did not?and in practice we do find blan-
ket requirements increasingly queried. A consumer should
care enough about his need to do a lot of follow-up on it, and
only if such follow-up produces no indication of the best collec-
tion method is he entitled to call broadcast upon many collec-
tors.
This problem, like so many others, gets back in the end to
the individual analyst's consciousness of collection problems
and capacities, assisted and advised by requirements staffs?'
to whose importance I shall return. That analysts are not
sufficiently collection-conscious is due to physical separation,
security precautions often largely legitimate, and not least to
personnel turnover. Perhaps a shade too to the academic tra-
dition of self-help and solo effort. In any case, the fact remains
that this particular link of collector selection is probably the
weakest one in our process at present. It is of course a far
from unique organizational problem. Perhaps its parallel
could be found in the relationship between Production and:
sales in any manufacturing business. But it certainly is one
on which we can profit at this conference by a few shared ex-
periences.
Servicing the return. Moving to the next stage, let us sup-
pose that the requirement, in usable form, reaches a collector
iii the field (whether in an Embassy, in a clandestine station
or within the semi-overt collection complex in the United
States) and that the collector is then able to do something
about it and assemble some information. At this point, there
arises the problem of servicing the return so that' it can be
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
most useful. This problem is not serious if there is no great
time pressure and if the source will be readily available for re-
interrogation, further visits to the target, or more search of
his files. In questioning returned German scientists we have
been able to work through several stages of refinement, so as
to be fairly sure of having tapped the collection capability to
the maximum.
In other cases, however, we have often had disastrous ex-
periences of misunderstanding and incomplete collection dis-
covered when the source was no longer available. In seeking
to avoid such failures we have found it useful, at major sta-
tions, to have a reports officer right on hand ready to put the
take into at least semi-finished form, set the product against
the requirement, and direct immediate follow-up to catch the
gaps. I suggest that this device may have more uses than we
have yet turned it to, perhaps including an area of concern to
all of us, the handling of legal travellers from the Bloc, in-
cluding Communist China.
Evaluating and appraising. From what might be called
specific "intermediate" or "field" evaluation it is only a short
step to the final major problem in the normal process, that of
final evaluation and appraisal, a subject to which I shall return
at the conclusion of this paper.
The need for specific evaluation may sometimes be voiced in
an urgent plea from the collector who has developed a new
source and wants to know whether it is worth further culti-
vation. That type of evaluation raises not too much difficulty
with us. Provided he is not tackled too often, the consumer
does respond adequately. But in the more routine case of in-
formation collected in response to general requirements, our
collectors complain bitterly about the lack of steady evalua-
tion. and I suspect it Is one of the parts of our process that
needs a lot of attention and perhaps a device or two.
In a community as far-flung as ours it is perhaps too much
to strive for any uniform system or form of evaluation, and
this we have never attempted. Moreover, there will always be
the problem of reluctance to criticize, or appear to criticize,
collection service under separate command. Yet this is just
the crying need, and felt by none more strongly than the col-
lector himself. -I
V\ I
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Within what I have called the self-contained systems the
evaluation job appears, on my brief survey, to be extremely
well done. State and the military services appraise the report-
ing performance of their overseas posts quite rigorously.
State, for example, does it by despatches on a spot basis, by
periodic evaluation of its people from this standpoint, and by
an annual critique of each overseas post's intelligence per-
formance. And on all of these they may and do consult with
other major consumers of the take. The CIA collection serv-
ices, on the other hand, both overt and clandestine, find their
consumers, CIA producing offices as well as others, limited in
their evaluation efforts; and as a result the collectors are
never too sure of just where they stand with respect to ade-
quacy in their job.
In all of these five day-to-day problems, much depends on
the personal competence and savvy of our requirements and
liaison people. In our system, we maintain requirements
staffs at both ends of the line, at least in the CIA production
and collection services. In State and the military services
they stand, I believe, more in the middle, attached organiza-
tionally neither to the producing offices nor to the offices
charged with giving instructions to the collectors. What is
clear, in either set-up, is that they must have the broadest
possible knowledge of the capabilities of various collection units
or of their own particular one, and must be able to interpret
the collector to the consumer and vice-versa.
At the same time, I venture that the really good require-
ments officer should have a king-sized lazy streak in him, lead-
ing him to avoid interposing himself where he is not needed
and to permit, indeed urge or compel, the analyst to get to-
gether directly with the collection agency, as far down the
line as possible, so that he can make clear what his need
really is and tailor it to the capacities of the collector.
So far as organization goes, I have sought in vain, in talk-
ing to all I could get my hands on, for any generalized formula.
I do know I has a practice that our clandes-
tine services have always resisted, namely having consumer
representatives detailed directly to the collection shop and
actually in on the planning of operations. This practice pre-
vails to some extent in our military services' covert activities
in support of field commands and similar missions within the
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
sphere of what we call "agreed activities," but it is not used in
the main CIA clandestine collection service. The advantages
and disadvantages of the two systems may deserve some dis-
cussion at this conference.
Problems of Clandestine Collection
All the problems I have just discussed are common in some
degree to all forms of collection. But there is a very great
difference between the guidance problems of the overt and
semi-overt systems and those of clandestine collection. Here,
I should say, is the ne plus ultra of guidance and requirement
problems, where all the types of problems, from basic alloca-
tion of effort to the attempt to meet specific requirements in
relation to available resources, are at their maximum. This
arises from the simple fact that clandestine assets cannot be
laid on the table for inspection.
In the U.S. community our most important coorclinnting
device is an Interagency Clandestine Collection Priorities Com-
mittee (IPC), on which all the major consumer agencies are
represented. This committee, founded in 1950, has as its prin-
cipal function the preparation of continuing guide lists of key
specific targets in the USSR, Communist China, and the Satel-
lites. (IPC's responsibilities are worldwide and may on occa-
sion lead to work on other areas, such as the UAR, especially
where a Soviet element is present.) These lists are based on,
and under present practice stated in terms of, the basic First,
Second, and Third Priority Objectives set forth in the PNIO's.
The IPC lists have evolved a great deal over the years.
They were originally massive shopping lists, in which pistols
were doled out more or less indiscriminately to the mole, the
rat, and the badger on a sort of prima facie showing of rele-
vance to Soviet striking power or some other key aspect of
Soviet power and intentions. Particularly within the past two
years, however, they have become a far more meaningful selec-
tion which we believe really does take in virtually all of the
key physical targets of which we are aware. Moreover, the
frighteningly encyclopedic character of the lists has recently
been reduced by the production of special lists of installations
of absolute top priority, and admission to these lists is very
carefully screened indeed. The result is that today for the
\)\
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first time our clandestine collectors have a fairly reliable
frame of reference against which to judge the incoming spot
requirement of consumers. Moreover, the lists have become
of increasingly greater usefulness in a function they have al-
ways filled to some extent, that of providing a framework for
long-range planning in the development of clandestine assets.
Yet there obviously remain major defects and problems.
Although the IPC lists are pitched in terms of clandestine col-
lection, each important case has to be shaken out to be sure
there are not other forms of collection that can better take on
all or a part of the job. We have made great progress in some
fields in deciding what should be gone after by the clandestine
route, but there have still been ghastly fiascos where great
clandestine effort was applied to obtain results that were avail-
able all the time through careful analysis of the open litera-
ture, and conversely I am sure there are many cases where
clandestine effort is not being pushed to the maximum in the
belief that other sources are of some use, when in fact they
are not. In this, as in so many matters in this field, the secu-
rity fears of the collector (not by any means only the clan-
destine collector) play a large part.
Naturally, the consumer's dream is a situation where he
could go to the collectors, get a full layout of their assets, and
go back and frame his requirements accordingly. This can
be done to some extent in areas such as East Germany, where
the clandestine assets are considerable and of a general char-
acter that can be presented without much security problem.
But in the key areas of the USSR itself and Communist China,
assets are so relatively few that they cannot be usefully de-
scribed without tending to pinpoint them in a way that does
clearly present major hazards.
The result is that in this area, above all, there is a premium
on use of the competent middleman, or Requirements Officer,
who can master the possibilities of an asset and then, by some
obscure process of osmosis and double-talk, get the consumer
to use his imagination and frame requirements that will elicit
useful responses. The premium on well-framed questions is
tremendous, sources are not easily accessible for a second
round, and often a great deal of collateral research is needed
to think of things that the particular type of source is really
in a position to observe and report. Thus the need for con-
ca
ccrocT
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
sumer and collector to be close together is nowhere more
acute, and yet nowhere is it made more difficult by the prob-
lems of security, physical distance, and the number of go-
beAtwpeearntsfrinvolomved.
their
intrinsic difficulty, these problems suggest
a larger question in the theory of clandestine collection?
whether in fact it makes the best sense to have a system of
consumer-originated spot requirements for clandestine collec-
tion. As a practical matter, virtually no spot requirement
can be met without a great deal of follow-up contact as direct
as possible between the analyst and at least the headquarters
of clandestine collection. The tail does wag the dog, more
than in any other form of collection, and it is a question
whether requirements work should not be done almost wholly
by laying out the general nature of the asset and then can-
vassing consumers to see what needs that asset can be brought
to serve. This of course should not mean that clandestine
planning and major direction would not continue to be done
within as strong an overall framework of priorities as possible,
but only that spot requirements would not be levied except
after more general statements supplemented by all the per-
sonal contact and consultation possible. This relates to the
organizational question I mentioned earlier, whether the con-
sumer might not have his people right in the requirements
shop of the clandestine collector.
Overall Evaluation
Last, and perhaps most important, I come to the problem
of overall appraisal of the collection system and top-level work
to set in motion major new developments and changes. Of all
human activities, I suppose intelligence may be about the
least susceptible to accounting methods or to attempts, at any
given moment, to figure out just how well or badly you may be
doing relative to the possible. Any businessman would despair
if he tried to get the equivalent of a department by depart-
ment profit-and-loss statement such as General Motors gets
from Cadillac, Buick, and so on; and he would succumb to total
frustration if he set out to take a measure of how the whole
vast holding company was really doing.
Yet though we may be rightly skeptical of quantitative or
even qualitative appraisals on an overall scale (I have earlier
CPC D=T g 1
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remarked the importance of appraisal in a more specific con- /
text), we have become increasingly conscious over the past five
years of the need to draw back from the operating picture and
take stock to see if we are not leaving undone really big things
that we ought to be doing. For this purpose the ordinary
machinery of government has severe limitations. For two
years I had the dubious experience of chairing a working group
to inform our National Security Council, on a most discreet
basis, how intelligence was doing. The report has become
better over the years, but the amount of uncandour, ellipsis,
and just plain backside protection is still formidable. You
simply can't get people to confess their sins in front of others.
Within the structure of government the one device we have
found useful is the creation of a gadfly post at a high level.
Given a self-starting, inquiring, and energetic individual with
power to open all doors, this can be quite profitable. For the
large tasks of appraisal, however, we have found it most useful,
in many cases probably indispensable, to bring in groups of
more or less expert outsiders to advise us. They are a nui-
sance while in the inquiry stage, but they bring together people
from all corners of the community, put their work into greater
focus than it had, and on many occasions come up with ex-
tremely important recommendations.
Lastly, we have embarked during the past year on a signifi-
cant experiment in seeking to deal with our most serious col-
lection gaps. This is the creation, last March, of a Critical
Collection Priorities Committee, chaired by CIA's Deputy Di-
rector for Intelligence and with high-level representation from
all the main agencies. This committee, chartered to look into
any aspect of collection on key priority objectives and to rec-
ommend action, has taken as its first task the field of guided
missiles. Aided by the fact that the overall requirements in
this field had been built up with exceptional care and thorough-
ness by our guided missile conamittee, the CCPC has achieved
as a first step what may be the first single-document inventory
of all assets being employed on the guided missile problem.
Its work has great promise?which I can say the more easily
as I have no connection with it?and it may well be the fore-
runner to future exercises in really comprehensive collection
planning, though I doubt if the approach fits any but the most
cleanly focused substantive problems.
59 SECRET
The Guiding Of Intelligence Collection SECRET
A Look Ahead
Let me conclude with a word on the future of collection
against the Sino-Soviet Bloc. I suspect that in terms of
method the future will see an increasing emphasis on the
technical collection methods, and that as to targets we should
be focusing more and more on Soviet scientific plans and pro-
gress. From my viewpoint as an estimator it appears that
our information on the Soviet Bloc economic picture, while of
course still far below what we would like it to be, has sorted
itself out tremendously in the last few years. On the political
side we must go on trying, but are not likely to succeed beyond
modest limits in getting advance knowledge of inner political
developments or changes in foreign policy and plans. And as
to military hardware, we are not in too bad shape on the con-
ventional weapons and forces.
It is in advanced weapons and scientific progress that we
find at once our most critical area and the one where our
present status is least good. Though our hopes lie in the ex-
pansion of technical collection systems, it is also true that in
this area we have a much greater number of opportunities for
getting at the fringes, and sometimes more, through contacts
with Soviet scientists, the expanded Soviet scientific litera-
ture, and a host of other sources that can be tapped through
the more orthodox overt and clandestine methods. Yet the
use of these methods, in turn, will require a degree of educa-
tion and training well beyond past needs. .It is one thing to
train an agent to count the flatcars going through Brest-
Litovsk; quite another to train and give the right questions to
an agent in a low-level position in a scientific establishment.
From a guidance standpoint, this seems to me to present the
greatest challenge to our ingenuity, industry, and machinery.
The need is greatest, perhaps the response will be also.
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the U.S. strateg warning
watchtower still under con-
structicrn.
THE MONITORING OF WAR INDICATORS
Thomas J. Patton
25X1
To provide warning of any surprise attack against the
United States and its allies is our first national intelligence
objective, but one, it has been our experience, that cannot be
adequately served by the normal processes of estimative or
current intelligence. We have therefore found it necessary
to develop a somewhat specialized intelligence effort for ad-
vanced strategic early warning. This effort, which we have
termed "indications intelligence," seeks to discern in advance
any Soviet or other Communist intent to initiate hostilities,
whether against the United States or its forces, its allies or
their forces, or areas peripheral to the Soviet Orbit. It also
seeks to detect and warn of other developments directly sus-
ceptible of enemy exploiting action which would jeopardize the
security of the United States; and this effort has been ex-
tended in practice to any critical situation which might give
rise to hostilities, whether or not there is an immediate threat
of direct US or Soviet involvement.
We maintain a sharp distinction between this intelligence
early warning?a strategic warning in advance of military
operations, based on deductive conclusions about Soviet prepa-
rations?and operational early warning, tactical conclusions
from information on Soviet operations now obtained largely
by mechanical means. I like to think of the indications ac-
tivity as having four aspects:
First, it is the cultivation of a mental attitude which leads
to first assessment of all Soviet or Communist action in
terms of preparation for early hostilities.
Second, it is the development of a body of doctrine which
can serve as guidance for the collection of warning informa-
tion, for its physical handling, and for its evaluation. Basi-
cally this is the isolation of those actions which would be
most likely to constitute preparations for hostilities, whether
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deliberate or in response to the immediate international situ-
ation. It is the creation, through experience, of a body of
"common law" applicable to the selection, evaluation and anal-
ysis of information pertinent to warning.
Third, it is the development of new techniques and methods
for the collection, processing, evaluation, and analysis of in-
formation significant principally or solely for purposes of stra-
tegic early warning. These techniques and methods range
from finding new sources to analysis by electronic devices.
With the development of missiles and the consequent sharp
reduction in the time lag between an enemy decision to attack
and the attack, we must give this aspect of the activity in-
creased attention. The alternative would be a degree of abdi-
cation by intelligence to "operations," with a consequent loss
to national flexibility.
Fourth, it is the organization of the intelligence community
at all levels so that it can process most rapidly and effectively
information from every source which could provide insight
into Soviet preparation for hostilities. This processing in-
volves every step from initial screening, or even collection, to
the reporting of conclusions to responsible officials of the ex-
ecutive arm of the government. This continuous process is an
integral part of, and yet different from, the current intelli-
gence and estimative processes. When a threat appears
great, as in moments of considerable crisis, the indications
process tends to coalesce with both the current intelligence
process and the estimative process, at least at the national
level.
Before treating these aspects in detail I shall outline the
organization and procedures for advance strategic warning
which have evolved in the United States. Far from perfected
and still evolving as they are, they will at least illustrate one
national effort to provide intelligence indications of threaten-
ing war.
The Watchers and Their Work-Week
The Director of Central Intelligence and the US Intelligence
Board, who have the ultimate national responsibility for this
warning, have in effect delegated the function to the USIB
Watch Committee. The Watch Committee is composed of sen-
ior intelligence officers at the general officer of senior colonel
6)\9
The Monitoring Of War indicators SECRET
level representing the major intelligence agencies, and is
chaired by the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence. Al-
though it meets only weekly during normal times, or perhaps
daily during crises, its function is continuous, exercised
through frequent liaison and contact and through a constant
routine exchange of information and evaluations, formal or
informal
Serving the Committee is a permanent staff in the National
Indications Center, the physical locus of Committee functions.
The NIC staff of 25 is composed of intelligence officers at the
colonel or naval captain level representing each of the major
intelligence agencies, assisted by administrative, communica-
tions, and graphics personnel. The Center itself is linked by
electrical communications to the major agencies. It receives
from the USES agencies a flow of possible indications informa-
tion, both on a routine across-the-board basis and as evaluated
and selected for possible pertinence. It has a 24-hour intelli-
gence duty officer who is in frequent contact with duty officers
in other agencies and with members of the staff. Through
these contacts and communication links there is a constant
interchange of information and views, but formally the Watch
Committee functions on a weekly cycle which can be telescoped
during crises to a matter of minutes. The cycle is rather
elaborate, and while imperfect it at least ainiS at thoroughness.
It runs roughly as follows:
Friday to Monday noon: Screening and processing informa-
tion, in the NIC and in each member agency.
Monday afternoon: The NIC staff reviews available informa-
tion, compiles a preliminary agenda for the Wednesday
Watch Committee meeting, and teletypes it to member
agencies.
Tuesday: "Pre-watch" meetings in each member agency,
attended also by NIC staff members, at which available
information is reviewed and selected for the Watch Com-
mittee meeting. Final agenda and graphics are prepared
in the NIC.
Wednesday morning: Watch Committee meeting. All in-
telligence and operational information considered perti-
nent and its interpretation is reviewed, orally and graphi-
cally, in a two- to three-hour session. The Committee
drafts its conclusions at the table.
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Afternoon: Watch Committee members check its conclu-
sions individually with USIB members. The conclusions,
when coordinated through the medium of the NIC, are
then published as USIB views and transmitted to re-
sponsible government officials and other recipients around
the world. MC prepares the draft body of the 'Watch
Report, a summarization of the evidence considered by the
Committee, and sends it by courier or teletype to USIB
member agencies.
Thursday morning: The draft Watch Report is reviewed,
updated, and commented on by USIB members and by
responsible analysts at the desk level in all major agencies.
Afternoon: The MC staff, on the basis of agency comments,
prepares a final draft report and submits it to USIB mem-
bers for approval.
Friday morning: The printed report is disseminated to all
recipients; all concerned breathe deeply and plunge into
the cycle again.
This fairly exhaustive procedure is complex, sometimes pon-
derous and time-consuming. But in addition to the produc-
tion of the formal Committee reports, it has served another
very important purpose: it has accustomed all those involved
to the joint hammering-out of all the issues, including minor
or particular ones. This means that when time is pressing
and the issues really urgent we can arrive at joint evaluations
and conclusions very quickly. Upon occasion a Committee
conclusion has been passed to the White House less than an
hour after the Committee was summoned to meet.
Within most of our agencies, the normal internal intelli-
gence processes and organizations are relied on to flush out
and evaluate the information which is passed to the MC or
utilized by Watch Committee members at their meetings.
Several agencies, however, maintain small internal groups
whose sole function is to screen out warning information and
seek or stimulate evaluations of it. They are parallel pieces,
by way of insurance, to the normal internal intelligence or-
ganization and process. In Air Force, for example, a 24-hour
indications center is maintained to serve USAF Headquarters
and to act as central for a net of small indications centers in
the major geographical air commands.
SECRET
The Monitoring Of War Indicators SECRET
Each of our major joint military commands outside the con-
tinental United States has a replica of the national Watch
Committee. These are responsible to the theater joint com-
mander, but forward their reports to Washington, where they
are regularly considered by the Watch Committee. Thus in
our national intelligence warning process the Watch Com-
mittee cycle has its concurrent parallels abroad dealing simi-
larly with local warning problems. In some instances the
timing of the process abroad has been adjusted to that of the
Watch Committee.
With these mechanics as a background, I return to the
four aspects of indications intelligence which I mentioned ear-
lier: mental attitude, doctrine, the development of techniques,
and organization. My remarks constitute an amalgam of the
experience and ideas of a small number of us who have worked
in indications intelligence for some years. Some of these
ideas have yet to be adopted throughout our community, but
our experience leads us to believe that in time they may be
more widely accepted.
Attitude of the Watcher
Ideally, for the purposes of indications intelligence, some or
all of the following assumptions must be made as basic work-
ing hypotheses, though each can be legitimately challenged in
any given situation:
The Soviets, together with the other Communist states, are
seeking an opportune time to initiate hostilities to achieve
their ends;
The attack will attempt maximum surprise, possibly during
periods of international calm.
The decision to initiate hostilities may be made without the
military capability which we would consider requisite.
Any estimates which argue from other assumptions may be
quite wrong.
If intelligence officers dealing at any stage with potential
warning information can be conditioned to these assumptions,
we feel that we have a greater chance of detecting that pattern
of developments which may attend preparations for an at-
tack. Intelligence officers need not be ruled by these assump-
tions, but they should be conscious of them when any possibly
relevant information iS considered: for instance, military exer-
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SECRET The Monitoring Of War Indicators
cises should always be considered as deployments and as
changes in degree of military readiness or as rehearsals for an
impending attack.
We must instill and maintain this attitude in all personnel
dealing with potential warning information, particularly dur-
ing non-critical periods or during the fading days of a crisis.
This is a difficult task, especially in a large intelligence organi-
zation with a high degree of specialization and compartmen-
talization. There are two obvious alternative ways of going
about it. One is to wage a relentless educational campaign
among the body of our intelligence personnel. This method
faces some of the obstacles of a highway safety campaign or a
campaign against sin; and it is possible that in laying exten-
sive general stress on the warning problem we might overdo it
and give rise to unbalanced or unduly alarmist intelligence re-
porting and estimates.
The other approach, which I favor, is to develop a small
group of indications intelligence officers, either working to-
gether as a body or spread among various organizations but
maintaining close contact. Such officers would consider in-
formation from the warning point of view only, would provide
continuity in the development of doctrine, would serve as mis-
sionaries among both collectors and analysts, and would keep
pressing for adequate attention to fragmentary information
of potential but not necessarily apparent significance to warn-
ing. Such officers need not achieve great depth in any re-
gional or functional intelligence field, since they could rely on
experts for the necessary support. It has been our experience
that intelligence officers given this responsiblity become en-
thusiasts, if not zealots, of the indications hunt, and ex-
tremely sensitive to those visceral signals which in the last
analysis may well be the vital factor in our judgment as to
the imminence of a Soviet attack.
In the United States several intelligence agencies have made
use of this approach to a greater or less degree. Others de-
pend largely upon having their representatives in our National
Indications Center and upon the fact that our major joint
current intelligence committee, the Watch Committee, focuses
on indications of hostilities and does not spread its considera-
kg?
" ?-? r?r.
The Monitoring Of War Indicators SECRET
tion to all matters of general intelligence significance. Al-
though it might appear that this specialization could develop a
predisposition to a too-frequent crying of "wolf," we feel that
the joint nature of the considerations which precede the for-
warding of our warnings tends to preclude the danger. In
practice, we have found that the nature of our system hs
served to reduce the number of alarmist "flaps" which arise,
particularly outside intelligence circles, from undeliberated
interpretation of developments.
Doctrine of the Watch
In the development of a doctrine to guide and assist us to
provide warning of an attack, we have sought first to identify
in advance those actions which would constitute preparations
for hostilities. Such pre-identifications, useful to both ana-
lysts and collectors; we have compiled into Indicator Lists. An
indicator we define as a major action which the Soviets must
take before they are ready for hostilities, whereas an indication
is evidence that such an action is being or has been taken.
The distinction is an essential one which all of us tend to lose
sight of in common usage.
In isolating those actions which we designate as indicators
or potential indicators, we are seeking answers to several key
questions:
What are the essential steps the Soviets and their allies
must take in their preparation for early major hostilities?
Which of these steps represent a degree of national com-
mitment which would only, or most likely, follow their
decision to initiate hostilities?
In the light of the nature of information currently available
,
to us, or which can be expected, what sort of information
will we accept as evidence that these preparatory or im-
plementing steps are being. taken?
How do we distinguish, during periods of crisis, between those
actions which are precautionary and those which are
preparations for deliberate hostilities?
What actions constitute evidence that the Soviet decision-
making process is in action, possibly considering the ques-
tion of hostilities?
SFC PFT
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We have attempted to distinguish a series of preparation
phases representing progressive steps toward a decision to
attack or progressive commitment of the enemy state to war.
We group the indicators in four such stages as follows:
Long Range: Actions involved in the intensified achieve-
ment of specific military capabilities, offensive or defensive,
essential to the prosecution of general hostilities which
are either generally anticipated or deliberately planned.
Medium Range: Actions or developments which might ac-
company or follow a decision to ready the nation or the
military forces generally for any eventuality, or which
might follow a deliberate decision for war but precede for-
mulation, issuance or implementation of specific opera-
tional plans and orders.
Short Range: Actions which might follow or accompany the
alerting and/or positioning of forces for specific attack
operations or to meet an estimated possible US attack.
Immediate or Very Short Range: Actions which might ac-
company or immediately precede a Soviet attack (fre-
quently combined in practice with the preceding stage).
These stages can, and have been, defined at greater length
or quite differently, but the purpose is the same?to arrive
at a listing which groups at one end those actions which may
represent long-range preparations for hostilities, but not nec-
essarily a commitment to them, and at the other end those
actions which, by their urgency and costliness, appear to con-
note a commitment of the enemy state to war. It also gives
us a sensing of the imminence associated with such indications
as we may detect, and of the phasing in time among them.
In our listings we attempt to give not only the major ac-
tions which constitute indicators, but also some of the con-
tributory indicators which, if noted in concert, would comprise
evidence of a major indication otherwise undetected. Our
phased approach also serves to isolate actions by which we
hope to gauge the extent and danger of Communist reaction
to a particular, perhaps seemingly localized, crisis.
Our proposed schedule of lists will include:
First, a general indicator list stating in broad terms the
major actions we would expect.
The Monitoring Of War Indicators SECRET
Second, a series of functional lists in much greater detail.
There will be separate lists for Long Range Air Force
preparations, ground force preparations, political and dip-
lomatic activities, clandestine activities, civil defense, mili-
tary medicine, weather service, etc.
Third, a series of lists which address themselves to special-
ized sources, including the technical sources. These lists,
in effect, are an application of the preceding lists to in-
formation provided by individual sources, particularly to
changes in a routine take whose warning significance
might not be immediately apparent. One such list ad-
dresses itself to monitored changes in the conduct of
Soviet broadcasting. Another might concern radar moni-
toring. Another would cover observations our embassy
personnel in Moscow might make in the normal course of
their daily routine: closure of some subway stations, for
example, and an absence of fire engines from normal sta-
tions might provide confirmation for suspicions that late-
stage civil defense preparations were under way. A simi-
lar list for legal rail travelers would include actions ob-
servable from a train window which might fit into indicator
patterns.
Fourth, a series of target lists naming those installations or
outfits by whom or at which certain activity would be of
major significance, and those by whom or at which arty
activity would have major significance. Examples of
the latter might be an elite Long Range Air Force unit or
an air transport unit suspected of a role limited to the
ferrying of nuclear "pills" to operational commands.
This is an ambitious program, reflecting primarily the pau-
city of available information, particularly information on the
major instruments of Soviet attack. When completed, it will
be a massive document. We also plan, however, a highly con-
densed one-sheet version of each list, perhaps in tabular form.
Such lists must be looked on only as guides, and quite often
they rapidly become obsolete. In some instances we have
failed so far to come up with anything really satisfactory?
most notably in the missile field. But when we have had suffi-
cient experience with our own missiles and with information
on Soviet ini