NORTH VIETNAMESE INFILTRATION LOSSES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000800060007-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 20, 2000
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: September 18, 1967
• Content Type: MF

RET
Approved For Release 9ii1 I i8T02095R00080006000
S-2464
18 September 1967
25X1A
1: RM D 1'OR: FE/Laoe
SUBT=: North Vietnamese Infiltration Losses
1. north Vietnamese arm troops infiltrating into South Vietnam
through Laos during 1966 are estimated to have sustained permanent
losses of 10 to 20 percent of the total number of troops that departed
from North Vietnam. At least 55,000 and possibly 85,000 NVA troops are
estimated to have successfully infiltrated into South Vietnam during
1966. Thus, it is probable that 5,000 to 15,000 men were permanently
lost during infiltration during 1966.
2. This range results from three recent 0 attempts to quantify
infiltration losses. The most recent and intensive study suggests,
however, that a beat estimate would be closer to the 10 percent than the
20 percent. Approximately 80 percent of these losses are believed to be
?asa:ociated with illness -- uswtlly ralaria ?--- and Include` soldiers who
die in the Lao jungles, are perrontly loft bohind, or arrive in South
Viet too debilitated by sieRness to be of any military usefulness.
Close to half of all infiltrators are belived to have boon affected by
malaria or dietary deficiency-associated diseases during their trip south.
3. Less than 10 percent of all permanent loaaos were caused by air
attacks,, although air harassment and interdiction has indirectly increased
the siekoas and desertion loss rates. Air attacks have forced units to
chance their mode of movement in NVN from train and truck to travel on
foot, increasing the time needed to infiltrate. In addition, attacks in
Taos and along the South Vietnam border have forced more ene r troops to
move at night, stretched out movement times,, and restricted the availability
of medical supplies and food. Losses due to desertions are slightly more
than 10 percent of total. looses. Significantly, however, most of these
losses take place in North Vietnam., before the morale of infiltrators is
sapped by illness, heavy loads, and primitive living conditions. Apparently
NVA troops are unwilling to risk leaving their units in the,'uafamiliar,
unpopulated jungle areas of Laos and South Vietnam despite the hardships
they encounter.
NO FOREl~~~~1SSFPs9
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Approved For Release 2001/03/03 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800060007-9
 nn SECRET
Approved For Release 2001~i%/0PEE RO 71d2095R000800060007-9
4. Although inadequate data is available to reach any conclusions
about 1967 loss rates, scattered reports from 1967 infiltrators indicate
that the overall rate is similar or slightly higher than the 1966 rate.
The 1966 loss rates were, in turn, msrkcdly higher than tentative
estimates of 196.5 rates.
thodolO fy
In the past few months 041 has used three methodologies for analyzing
infiltration loss data. The first attempt yielded the 20 percent estimate
and employed assumptions that would lead us to expect it is the upper
limit; similarly, it i t believed that. the 10 percent estimate constitutes
the lower limit. In the most recent attempt, a total of about 14,000
Laotian route infiltrators in 42 units wore selected for inclusion in the
1966 data base. Criterion for sample Inclusion was mention of loss rates
to two or more of three causes: desertion, air strikes, and Illness
incidence. All information was taken from rallier and captive inter-
rogation reports. Sample selection was complicated, however, t poor
debriefing procedures and inadequate information as to unit size. To
produce estimates of pwzanert.lossea it is assumed that one-half of all
deserters eventual2y returned to duty; that two-thirds of the men who
drop out of their units during infiltration are returned to duty -- the
remainder are assumed to have died or become permanently disabled; and
that five percent of all infiltrators that contact malaria eventually die.
or are per ancnt3,r disabled by the disease.
25X1A
Actixtg , pedal Pro,lecte
Distribution:
11
Orig. & 1
- Addressee
1
- AD/OER
1
- St/EX-01'
1
- St/CS
1
- SAVA
25X1 A 1 - D/T
0ER/T/SF bar/6933 (18 Sep 67)
SECRET
NO FO E11N GISSE
Approved For Release 2001/03/03 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800060007-9