EFFECTS OF THE ROLLING THUNDER PROGRAM: BOMB DAMAGE, CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, AND MORALE IN NORTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000800030024-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2002
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: August 16, 1967
• Content Type: IM

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tlo. 1373/67
Contral Intelligence Agency
Directorato of Intdlligefco
16 -ugust 1967
IN:TLLLXG :NCL' FX1,4101MUD04
. Effectsa of the Rolling Thunder Program:.
_fW5- ama C yi inn Ca ua as
Riza tear n nart~i V traam
Swinn, ark'
Attacks against major industrial plants in North
Vietnam haves given a new di-ronsion to the air war in
19G7. Dam aqe to electric power facilities has boon
particularly severe and has affected other industries.
odern industry, however, dogs not play a vital part
in North Viotnan's, ability to meet them need of tht a
people or to continua tho war. Despite the widening
air war the Rolling Thunder program remains pre-
domi :aptly an interdiction crex paian against roan and
nuppliez. t?Sovement has becoze more difficult, . but
ingenious countermoasures and determination, backed
up with aatarial support from other Com.muniat coun-
tries, have enabled L'anoi to meat its on noods and
to su2port the insurgency in South Vietnam. Attacks
against military targets ,have been disruptive,, but
f;,orth Victnaza's. over-all military capabilities have
not been reduced,
pile North Vietnam has diverted substantial nsx a-
bors of porsonnol to reconstruction and repair of
boy "b e,-_mago, these divcrsion3 .have not significantly
lii i ted hianoi ? ss ability to infiltrate troops into
Louth Vietnam and will not cripple the economy.
Civilian caaualtios in North Vietnam are rising
as the scone and intensity of the' air war increase.
The esti.r ato : total number of civilian casualties-
'oteaa Thte me,orandum wan produood gooZoZV by CIA.
Itiaaa praparead JointZ,f by the Offie of "eononrio
Raoaaroh and the Offios of Currant Int.iUganaa.
JCS review(s)
completed.
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43,000 killed and wounded-remains small, L ow?vor,
in relation to the population of 19 million and to
t 3 172,000 attack sorties against targets in tho
n ortz .
T uhlic morale in North Vietnam appears to be
halting-up fairly well, chat ito growing hardships.
Although Como ins of war-sbraarinesj are hocc rning
evident, the poo le in c=one al appoar willing to put
up with their many difficulties axed to respond to
the Hanoi rogLmo's direction. There have been no
reports of open opposition. it is too early to
c;auge the effects of the recant bombing of targota
in 'the Taroi area proviously rogardod as "safe. *
A the bomb..d. gay, caaualtioa, and hardships mount,
t e regime nay be hard pressed to keep morale at a
satisfactory lovol. The ovid& nce to data ouggeots,
ihowover, that morale is not likaly to pose a major
problem in thp near future.
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Damago. to tconomic Militaa and Lei intia Tar .cats
.iffects of Ph sisal D=are
1. %Imoot 64,000 axtt.ac : Sorties were flown in the
fi{at coven months of 1967, compared to 02,000 in 1966.
, 4tac..s against mijor industrial plants and important.
military targota have given new dimonsions to the air
war in 1967. in term o of sorties, hoeover, the roll-
ing Thunder Program re- gins preponderantly an inter-
diction effort against transportation routo3 and other
logi: t:ic targets primarily in the southern part of
the country.
2. The c?uuulative effccts of the boring pro--
c~ra have caused nuts crous zaanac, intent and locjistic prob-
lo .a for the North Victnamose and have raised the
cost of Hanoi's support of t h insuurgency in South
Victnara. The nove,".:en4: of men and supplies haz beco.'1e
more difficult and tine consuming and a substantial
volune of war and war-supporting rnatorial has been de-
stroyed in transit. As shown in the following tabula-
tion, the estimated direct cost of darmage inflicted
,was greater for the first seven months of 1967 th- n
for the year 1966; damage to military targets so far
in 1967 has beou ware ,than double the amount inflicted
in 1966.*
_r of Target
Zconoaic
Military
Total
Million U
1965
166
- Jan -Jul 1967
36.2
93.3
95.3
32.5
19.1
44.8
6#3.7
112.4
140.1
4Saa .dab-'Ia 1 for detaila,
..3<
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3. Tho north Victnarlics c, however, havo nhown
c;rc:at inVcnuity and determination in devulol ing
,,%,ainz;t the pair attacks. 'axxvo been
v:::a':;~gjcd ei-^:i icantly. Z"onak;:.elcz3, the loss of
c> cut GO ; lercerat of ~.stu itio c Storag3 C'spaxcity 11a3
had no zw :u3urable impact on taro availability of
a:m tznititn., larrjaly b+ causca now 1 upplios can ba
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i~t:~/.zm st+:~x. have boon abic to
~~~.~! 13./v. Sant No ~t.,{o+.I.o/ry~~Viaw
Mtt'a. ri-talo.n a:.a .~ op a the c pability of K.~ w4? A .% -
~axy
"~~i, teg-k.`aXP r k
a t ?~;,`L: the air a"~{.tirJ- ? v Xxll the
.att. y~,e~; a a, Uazzoi has diva .ck d its -Air a fa i Q
rc t . rA\id~j.-a3.{:n "y ut4:-i ?4a to .co ,p3.u:c, Sophisticated
14. The r-- ul a,tivcn dwaa o to # ,1itar'y targots
throw,,-14-1 July 1947 i.rz owtinatc'd at $96.4 millio i.
ir.;raef a of zircr"tita t and tl ::~ w~ a to barracks c+ ,,plexas
at
girt. ' i:."is dr;,. a e.
, toration n Cep tsa .rl:c, ux
15. 1:roa ,parirmipal factors {.tava ac-Co.a -04 for
~~,~?c rh t~i~ :;s ? ca 'sUCCwr.:3 in x4z toriaq tr .#`cic in tht;
:c: off: dcztr :s:ti.cn atd c a qc to the
tx,uz a tat C;
ai i:. t,, s r ui:~zcnt;zr w 3ai )i1y c3ivcr i 'iea, and i
rc aired to carry only a. small vo1u o or traffic
s:; :;a; . rc d to it< caps ity. T?.0 occpt9. facto; is the
rs idi ; with rbic:3 repairs havo bc6n c