COMMUNIST VIOLATIONS OF THE VIETNAM AND LAOS SETTLEMENT AGREEMENTS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080063-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 3, 2009
• Sequence Number: 63
• Publication Date: January 16, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2009/04/08: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000700080063-9
Secret
NSA review completed
Communist Violations of the Vietnam
and Laos Settlement Agreements
and Related Developments
Secret
Copy No. 2.2
DIA review(s)
completed.
Approved For Release 2009/04/08: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000700080063-9
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16 January 1974
Forty-Sixth Report
COMMUNIST VIOLATIONS OF THE VIETNAM AND LAOS
SETTLEMENT AGREEMENTS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS*
(This report covers the week
from 9 January through 15 January 1974)
The Key Points
? Troop infiltration last week continued at a high rate, as six
regular groups comprising about 3,500 men destined for the
B-3 Front and COSVN areas were detected in North
Vietnam.
? Recent evidence suggests that travel times to the B-3 Front
and COSVN areas for at least some regular infiltration groups
have been considerably reduced.
? A new front headquarters has been formed in Thanh Hoa
Province of North Vietnam, controlling at least three
subordinate divisions.
? Communist logistic activity in southern North Vietnam and
southern Laos was heavy during the week. Heavy traffic also
continued on Route 9 in northern South Vietnam.
? The Communists continue efforts to collect and store rice
in South Vietnam despite efforts of the GVN to limit such
procurement.
* This report has been prepared jointly by the Central Intelligence
Agency and the Department of Defense.
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This report is the forty-sixth in a series summarizing evidence received
during the reporting period of (1) Communist efforts to infiltrate new
manpower and military supplies toward and into South Vietnam,
(II) Communist-initiated combat activity in violation of the Vietnam and
Laos settlement agreements, and (III) other developments affecting
Communist military capabilities in Indochina.
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1. Infiltration and Redeployments of North Vietnamese
Personnel and Military Supplies
Personnel Infiltration
1. Troop infiltration to South Vietnam continued apace last week,
as six regular groups were detected in North Vietnam. Five of these groups,
with nearly 3,000 troops, are destined for COSVN, while the sixth group,
comprising about 600 troops, is moving toward the B-3 Front (see the table,
below). As a result of the detection of several of the COSVN-bound groups,
six additional undetected groups with at least 3,000 troops are believed
to have started, or soon will start, toward this area. These groups are
included in our estimate of infiltration starts.
2. Eight small special-purpose groups with about 225 people also
were initially reported last week. One of these groups, composed of civilian
administrators, is destined for southern Laos or adjacent border areas while
the other seven are traveling toward MR Tri-Thien-Hue, the B-3 Front, and
COSVN. Five of the eight special-purpose groups were noted at the top
of the infiltration system in North Vietnam, while the other three were
detected farther south.
3. Although troop infiltration to the B-3 Front and COSVN began
slowly this dry season, detections of regular groups traveling to these areas
have increased sharply during the past several weeks. Since late November,
some 19,000 troops - slightly less than the rate projected by Rear Services
Group 472 on 11 November - have been sent to the B-3 Front and
COSVN. Although it still is early, this rate suggests that the projection
was valid.
4. In addition to the higher input of troops to the B-3 Front and
COSVN areas noted in recent weeks, the time required for at least some
groups to reach these areas from North Vietnam has been substantially
reduced compared with previous dry seasons. For example, one regular
group moved from Vinh, North Vietnam, more than 500 miles to the
vicinity of Kratie, Cambodia, in 12 days -- a journey normally requiring
60 days. Both regular combat and special-purpose groups now could reach
the B-3 Front in 20 days and COSVN in 30 days, if Hanoi continues to
use vehicles to transport infiltrators. These travel times are about half the
previous estimates, and they reflect not only the bomb-free environment
of the last year but also the improved road network. As a result of these
reduced travel times, the North Vietnamese are able to plan military activity
in South Vietnam with considerably less lead time than previously.
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Comparative Starts of Troops
from North Vietnam, by Destination
I September - 15 January
Total
61,500
45,500
MR Tri-Thien-flue
18,500
2,000
MR 5
7,000
2,000
I3-3 Front
11,000
5,500
COSVN
15,000
13,500
Southern Laos/MR 559
10,000
22,500
Redeployments
5. Major elements of the North Vietnamese 218th Antiaircraft
Artillery (AAA) Regiment have moved from southern Laos into Quang Tri
Province of South Vietnam, where they apparently have been operating
since late November 1972 (see the order of battle map). At least three
of the regiment's eight battalions have been identified in COMINT in the
province; although the remaining five battalions are unlocated, they may
still be in Laos, where they have been operating since deploying there from
North Vietnam in January 1973. The move of the equivalent of another
AAA regiment increases the number of such units in Quang Tri Province
to 18 (plus one surface-to-air missile regiment), a total that may exceed
Communist air defense requirements there. Some of these units, however,
may have moved undetected, or may intend to move, farther south in MR I
along Communist Route 14, where there have been recent indications of
Communist plans to increase air defense coverage.
Movement of Military Equipment and Supplies
6. Following a one-week lull, logistic activity in North Vietnam's
Panhandle was brisk last week, as COMINT reflected daily southward
shipments of ordnance and other supplies. Typical of this activity was an
intercept from a storage area north of Vinh which indicated that it had
received 250 37-mm AAA barrels and had dispatched nearly 100 tons of
cargo, mostly ordnance, on 10 January. Also, a 12 January message from
Binh Tram (BT) 8 at Vinh stated that it was preparing to pick up 660
tons of weapons and ammunition from a storage point in the Thanh Iioa
area (see the transportation map). In other activity, BT 8 reported on
10 January that more than 400 tons of cargo, including 140 tons of
130-mm ammunition, would be sent to northern Laos during January.
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Communist and South Vietnamese Regular Combat Forces in South Vietnam
South Vietnam
Regular Combat Forces
WIN VA I R VNA F2
187,000
MR1
VC/NVA R VNA F
89,000 89,000
325th VNMC
324B Airborne
304th 1st
711th 2nd
2nd 3rd
1. Includes VC/NVA personnel in ground combat,
combat support, and air defense units and local force
companies and platoons.
2. RVNAF Ground Order of Battle. Includes
assigned personnel in ARVN/VNMCground combat
and combat support units, and Regional Force
battalions. Although present for duty strength is no
assigned strength.
MR4
VC/NVA R VNAF
1 25,000 88,000
1st 21st
9th
7th
MR 3
VC/NVA R VNA F
429th Sapper 25th
Command 18th
9th 5th
1
7th Regional
5th Forces
Regional
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Naai
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R VNAF
4 ,Binh Dinh
35,000
68,000
320th
23rd
10th
22nd
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