COMMUNIST VIOLATIONS OF THE VIETNAM AND LAOS SETTLEMENT AGREEMENTS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS

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Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
15
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 12, 2009
Sequence Number: 
60
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
December 19, 1973
Content Type: 
REPORT
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Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 25X1 Secret NSA review completed Communist Violations of the Vietnam and Laos Settlement Agreements and Related Developments Secret Copy No. DIA review(s) completed. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Forty-Third Report COMMUNIST VIOLATIONS OF THE VIETNAM AND LAOS SETTLEMENT AGREEMENTS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS* (This report covers the week from 12 December through 18 December 1973 ) The Key Points ? The slow pace of troop infiltration continued last week, as only two regular groups were observed in the pipeline. ? The 320E NVA Infantry Division withdrew some time during the past three months from northern South Vietnam to Thanh Hoa Province, North Vietnam. The 341st NVA Division has been reconstituted in Quang Binh Province, North Vietnam, adjacent to Quang Tri Province, South Vietnam. ? Heavy Communist supply shipments continued and large stocks of ordnance awaited shipment in southern North Vietnam. Considerable vehicle activity was evident in Laos as far south as the tri-border area, but vehicular activity in northern South Vietnam continued to be impeded by poor weather. ? Construction of the new road and the petroleum pipeline in southern Laos continues southward. * This report has been prepared jointly by the Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of Defense. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 This report is the forty-third in a series summarizing evidence received during the reporting period of (I) Communist efforts to infiltrate new manpower and military materiel toward and into South Vietnam, (II) Communist-initiated combat activity in violation of the Vietnam and Laos settlement agreements, and (III) other developments affecting Communist military capabilities in Indochina. There will be no issuance in this series during Christmas week. The next report will be published on Thursday, 3 January. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 I. Infiltration and Redeployments of North Vietnamese Personnel and Military Supplies Personnel Infiltration and Redeployments 1. The pace of troop infiltration slowed during the past week as only two regular groups were observed moving in the pipeline. The groups, each containing more than 500 troops, were detected in North Vietnam destined for the western highlands and the COSVN area of Sauth Vietnam.l In contrast to the movement of regular combat groups, however, the number of special-purpose group detections increased over those of recent weeks. Between 12 and l8 December, three special-purpose groups totaling more than 125 persons were detected starting southward from North Vietnam, while two other small groups totaling about 25 persons were observed farther south in the infiltration system. Two of these groups are moving to the COSVN area, two to the western highlands, and one to the central coast of South Vietnam. 2. Although the North Vietnamese could still infiltrate large numbers of troops before the end of the dry season, if they were planning an early offensive the rate of troop infiltration probably would have been greater than that observed in recent weeks. As shown in the following table, total troop infiltration since 1 September 1973 is almost one-third lower than during the comparable period last year. Moreover, reversing last year's pattern, most of the troops infiltrating since 1 September have gone to southern Laos and contiguous border areas. Comparative Starts of Troops from North Vietnam, by Destination I September - 18 December 1. One other regular group previously included in our estimate as a "gap-filled" group, destined for southern Laos or adjacent areas, also was detected last week. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 3. Recent (:CMINT indicates that. the 320B Infantry Division, with an estimated 6,000 troops, some time during the past three months withdrew from northern South 'Vietnam to its historical garrison area in Thank Iioa Province of North Vietnam. This is the third NVA infantry division to return home since the cease-firt:, the outer two being the 308th and 312th Divisions. Moreover, the. move reduces tite number of such divisions in the two nortltcrrt-most provinces of South Vietnam to three -- one less than was there during the early stages of the 1972 OFfensive. 4. Although the 320B Division was generally held in reserve and used to protect captured territory during fihc offensive, its withdrawal reduces the likelihood of an all-vut offensive in Military Region (MR) 1 during the next few months, Should Ilanoi decide to launch a major offensive in MR 1, however, it has a largo reserve force of several divisions (exclusive of the 320B Division) available in North Vietnam, most of which could be dispatched to South Viet-gam quickly with little advance warning. 5. Aft?_r the lant-ary cease-fire, Hanoj apparently reactivated a new 341st Division in the North Vietnamese .Panhandle. Although intercepted messages referenced a "341st Division" as early as April 1973, it was not urrtil after communication procedures of North Vietnamese units were changed in October that the division itself was identified. Until 1968, when it was probably deactivated, a 341st Division had operated in Quang Binh Province, North Vich~am, and elements }tad operated as far south as northern Quang Tri Province in Sottt}t Vietnam. The new 341st has as yet only two known st-bordinate regiments -- tltc 31st and the 32nd -and is currently loe:ated in the southern part of North Vietnam's Quang Binh Province.2 6. In northern Laos, COMINT indicated that between 8 and 10 December the 15th Engineer Battalion of the 316th lnfatttry Division withdrew from the Ban Ban area to the major transshipment point at Muong SCIt, just across tttc border in North Vietnam. This is the only battalion of the division which 1-as bt;cn identified withdrawing to North Vietnam. Last summer, a 25th Engineer Battalion also returned home, although evidence suggests that it may have since returned to northern Laos. Both units may be engaged in road construction or in moving supplies from North Vietnam to norther-t Laos because CCIMINT reveals substantial shipments of supplies moving west on Route 7 toward Laos. 2. Map 515529 shows the current distribution of Communist. and South Vietnamese combat forces, by military region, and reflects the deletion of the 3208 Division. Because the 341st Division is apparently in the rormative stages and has not communicated with the major NVA tactical authority nsponsible For this area, it has not as yet been included in the GIA/D1A Order of Battle or Communist units targeted against Souh Vietnam. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Communist and South Vietnamese. Regular Combat Forces in Souti~ Vietr~~m South Vie~rtam regular C'ornbat Fords VC/NY`A 1 r VN,:4F~ 185,000 3ZQ,OOp 1, " IncPudes VCf NVA personnel in ground carnbaL conrbaisul?port, and air defense units and locatforcc cornpanies`drrd Platoons. ~, RvNAI~ Round ~}rder of 13dttle. Includes assignod pesonncl in ARti'Nf VNM~ground combat and combat suppdrt units; and 1Ycgional [~orce b~ttalions,Althougli pteseflt-for duty strength is no longer available, it is estimated to b~ about 8i?n of assigned strength, MR3 VC/NVA rVNAF 4?9 th. S;rl~p C()Ji1111st71d 9th 7th 5th MR4 V~JNVA ,lt V'1~AF 1~~ 21st 9th;: 7fih MR 1- _87,000 32 5th- 324B 304th -' 7-11th: forces h._..)-~ j Binh '-1 /' Thuan -_?__ v ~''~ .~.1'.,~ V fh Lon9 Kien Hna ~AP~~AL ^J iP~~~Q~.: ~~ ~ 9~ ~ ~Pno ~,? ~ v~ Ki;en Dinh Vinh laann l r ~ ~ [x;.-ti 44th 5~ecial `T~zctical2~e Regiunai Forces An l?~ Xuyen riles- Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 YC/NVA R VIVAF 3.4,000 68,000 320th _ 23rd - ]-0th 22nd 3rd l~cg~nal ~?--? x. ~.~.r ~Khanh ~ _ l y ~ ~Hoa Military regitirr 6aundary ~_ - Prgvince irou~dary _- ICC& region tiauntlar~ r.~ r-' Phu Bon Phu /'t.~ ~ Yen _ '~.. i, i uYnn l - ?^ l~? Duc t iu~~ 1 T Lam Dong ?~ ?, Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Movement of Military Ecluil~nlcnt and Supplies 7. Last week, heavy supply shipments continued in southern North Victnanl for thc? third straight week and large stockpiles of ordnance awaiting shipment were noted throughout the area. In the Vino area, BT 8 received more than ?75 tons of ordnailcc on 11 December, about half of which was antiaircraft artillery ammunition. During the next three days, the unit shipped nearly 100 tons of cargo to northern Laas and had more ths-n 600 tolls renlainialg to be shipped to that area, including some 115 tons of 130-mm ordnance. On 15 December, the unit reported that it had some 1,100 tons of suppiics in storage, including nearly 300 tons of ordnance. 8. To the south, a high Icvcl of activity was also noted between Quang Khc and the Dlb'1Z. On ! 5 Decentbcr, BT 26 reported that it had loaded more than 300 tons of supplies on trucks preparatory to an imminent 10-day supply offensive. Such 10-day ?crash~~ programs have occurred at this time in past years and usually signal the acceleration of supply sllipnlellt5 into Laos. The next day, BT 2fi reported that it had shipped ?00 tons of ordnance south on three barges, probably as part of this program, and had more t}taal 1,300 tons of cargo in storage. Although the type of stored cargo was not specified, mast of it is probably ordnance. of northbound trucks increased.) (photography reflected little truck traffic moving through the. tri-border exit into Kontum Province, althougtl a motorablc single-lane road is available. Newly constructed large storage/truck park areas along the new Laotian corridor apparently are being used to stockpile cargos carried south this dry season. ] 0. Although only sporadic reporting was received, COMINT also confirmed a substantial level of activity in the Laos Panhandle. On 13 December, COMINT revealed that at least several hundred vehicles were active in the Panhandle, including 81 that had arrived at Ban Dan and 47 that had moved to the Croup 470 area in the extreme southern Panhandle. 25X1_- Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Food and gasoline were the only types of cargo specifically identified on these trucks, although most of the cargo carried by them was unidentified. 11. In addition to this activity, plans to reopen the Mu Gia Pass for cargo shipments from North Vietnam were noted. On 13 December the Commander of the 14th Engineering Regiment was directed to inspect a storage area in the Mu Gia Pass and to prepare for shipments through it. This is the first reference to cargo shipments in this area this dry season, and its timing suggests that it may be related to the 10-day supply offensive scheduled to begin shortly in southern North Vietnam (see paragraph 8, above). 12. In northern South Vietnam seasonal rains continue to make sections of Route 9 and the Communists' western supply corridor impassable and only light vehicular traffic was detected. Although little activity was noted, there were indications that traffic in some areas was being restricted to periods of darkness. Communist units regularly report on Allied reconnaissance activity and this order, which may pertain to units in Laos as well, could be an attempt to conceal traffic levels. II. Communist-Initiated Combat Activity iti. South Vietnam and Laos 13. In South Vietnam the total number of Communist-initiated cease-fire violations reported by the South Vietnamese Armed Forces since 27 January, since 15 June, and for the last week (12-18 December) are shown below: Military Total Since 27 January Total Since 15 Jurte last Week Region Cease-Fire Cease-Fire (12-18 Dec) "Ibtal Major 4,220 Minor 27,494 Major 1,851 Minor 13,539 Major 43(55)1 Minor 50g (519)1 MIZ I 1,514 5,532 489 2,173 14 MR `? 703 4,580 439 2,726 7 80 M R :~ 641 4,880 239 2,304 11 93 MR 4 1,362 12,502 684 6,336 l l 263 I . Figures in parentheses denote totals of the previous week. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 14. Sonic of these violations may }lave been initiated by South Vietnamese forces rather than Communist forces, and it is impossible in all cases to determine the actual instigator. T.he tabtrl~ttion above and the charts following tlt~ Annex, however, show fairly accurately the trend in the amount of combat that has occurred in South Vietnam since the cease-tire. The fact. that a combat incidc?nt occurred at a particular time and place is generally reported accurately by the Sottth Vietnamese, even though the question of who started it trray not always be treated objectively. Laos 15. There was no significant military activity in Laos last week. IiI. Other Developments Affecting Communist Military Capabilities in Indochina tbrrrrarrrraists ['arrtittrre Road' artd Pinelirre ~C'orrstrtectiorr Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 1 G. Aerial photography (shows COIniYllrtllst COIlStfLlCtlon crews working on the final gaps separating the Laotian dual-lane road and its companion system, Route 14, running along the western South 1lietnarnesc border. Tln photography shoFVS that about 10 miles of new dual-lane. road have recently been cleared through the tri-border area (see map SG 333?). Gaps totaling another 10-1 ~ miles still have to be filled before the two systems arc jov~cd, but with the. aid of bulldozers and large work crews, these probably can be finished by the end of the year. A motorablc single-lane road already connects the two routes, but appears to be used only for construction and communications traffic. 17. The same photography also indicated that the Communists arc extending their petroleum pipeline system through the southern Laotian Panhandle. paralleling tl~c new dual-lane road leading into the tri-border area. P*iew clearing and sections of pipe. were observed from a point some 30 miles south of the last known tcrmvtus. extending about 17 milts farther south along the eastern edge of flee dual-lane road to within 30 miles of tine tri-border. Although most of the 30-mile distance separating the old terminus and the new construction activity probably is connected with pipeline -several camouflaged 3,500-gallon pol storage tanks have been discovered beside the: new road south of the old pipeline terminus --jungle cover precludes confirmation. Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 r,~? ,~~ '~w,W;,,. ~h (anchorage) ~`fi Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 T ~ C~~I rWarn Chamrap (Mu Gia ~ Pass ~ r.:Am "'? (7he Communists have designated - the route within South Vietnam as "Route 14.") " Nampa sak t. ~`` CjiQf n~~~ ~ - .!At[ ~~ '"- ~ ("Fib. Nemea end boundary representation are not necessarily authoritative South Vietnam and Province boundary Military region International Commission of Control end Supervision region boundary Road POL pipeline Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 INFILTRATION OF NORTH VIETNAMESE PERSONNEL TO THE SOUTH 1. On 16 December, Group 3008, destined for the B-3 Front, was detected in the BT 8 area near Vinh, North Vietnam. Although this group was held back for two days, it has now been sent south. On 19 December, Group 2035, destined for the COSVN area, also was detected at BT 8, but it is uncertain whether this group has yet begun to move southward. Group 5094, which had been included in our estimate previously as a "gap-filled" group, also was referenced in intercepted enemy communications last week. In addition, special-purpose groups M344, M345 -- destined for the B-3 Front -- M426, M432 -- en route to the COSVN area -- and 2101 -- moving to VC Military Region 5 -- were detected last week. Groups M344, M345, and M432 were noted in the BT 8 area, and Groups M426 and 2101 were observed in southern Laos. Although Group Z 101 is known to comprise high-ranking personnel, the compositions of the M-prefixed groups are unknown. 2. Since the 15 June "second cease-fire," more than 39,000 North Vietnamese have infiltrated southward, including over 37,000 combat troops and more than 2,000 specialists. Since the 27 January agreement, about 89,000 personnel have infiltrated southward, including about 81,000 combat troops and more than 8,000 specialists. Some 64,000 have started south since 27 January, while 25,000 were in the pipeline moving southward as of that date. The following table shows the number of North Vietnamese infiltrators starting south, by month and destination, since 1 January 1973. Number of Troops Entering the Pipeline Destined for South Vietnam, Southem Laos, and Cambodia Since 1 January 19731 COSVN &3 Front MR 5 MR Tri-Thien?Hue Southern Laos/ MR 559 Total Total 16,000 7,000 x,000 14,000 26,500 72,500 Jan 7,000 5,000 4,000 2,500 .. Ix,S00 f~eb 5,000 S00 .... 1,500 1,000 tt,(F00 Mar .... .... .. 1,000 I,(NH) Apr 1,000 .... ... .... I.(1(NJ May .... _ .... ... 7,(100 .. ?,[100 Jun .... .... .... .... I,S00 I.S00 Jul .... .... 3,000 .... .. i,(xx) Aug .... .... .... .... 1,500 1,500 Sep .... .... 2,000 2,000 3,(>v0 7,000 Oct .... .... .... .... 14,000 14.000 Nov 1,000. 1,000 .... .... 5,500 7,500 Dec 1-]8 2,000 500 .... .... ... 2,5(10 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 GtAJt-tl~t ~[Ut,~R I fU~13 Iti JUU ~ n VfFTNA~ A~ REPORTED BY RVNAF f28 IANU~ARY iHR~UGN 31 lUlll 19731 lAN-f E6 zoo MAR APR MAY lUN rv Ew.. CEASE-FIRE Il111111111i ~,*;,I~ I-I I I I I I ~~1 r~ I I1 m rLIT~ Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS IN SOUTN VIETNAM AS REPORTED BY RVNAf (1 AUGUST 1913 TO THE PRESENT) AUG '?? NOV '?? ? 200 DEC ~?? ? 200 lAN ~?? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2009/04/08 :CIA-RDP78T02095R000700080060-2