OB CONFERENCE, APRIL 1968

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000500010001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1968
• Content Type: AG

Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78T02095R000500010001-3
OB Conference, April 1968
25X1
Apr 68 Conference on DCI Assessment of Enemy Strengths,
1.0-16 April 1968 (schedule, delegation, list
of attendees)
No Date Table: CIA Adjustments to the MACV Main and Local
Force OB, 31 Jan 68 and 29 Feb 68
No Date Table: Communist Forces in South Vietnam, 31 Jan 68
and 29 Feb 68
No Date Enemy Losses in South Vietnam
Aug 68 Infiltration Activity (Completely Rewritten from.
August Briefing)
2 Aug 68
(Preliminary OER View of Infiltration attacged)
to DD/OER memo re Infiltration Estimates
DIA review(s) completed.
Army review(s) completed.
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78T02095R000500010001-3
 Approved For 02095R000500010001-3
INFILTRATION ACTIVITY
(Completely Rewritten from August Briefing)
During the past three months there appears
to have been a marked decline in the number of
infiltrators that Hanoi has dispatched to South
Vietnam. We estimate that about 12,000 men de-
ployed from the North in August and that the
number entering the pipeline in September and
October was probably less than 8,000 men per
month.
These inputs are well below those for the
first seven months of 1968 when at least 30,000
men per month were sent from the North. The cur-
rent pace of infiltration is comparable to the
average rate per month observed in 1966 and 1967.
We are somewhat less confident of the precision
of our estimate for the last three months, as
against the earlier months of 1968. Although we
believe it roughly 'accurate, it appears that
changes in enemy procedures on infiltration during
recent months may have denied us some information.
We are not sure why the slowdown in troop deploy-
ments has occurred. We think it possible, however,
that Hanoi may believe that North Vietnamese strength
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 CIA-RDP78TO2095R0005000:10001-3
 25X1
i
Approved For
in South Vietnam has met its manpower goals for the
present. Total infiltration for 1968 will reach a
quarter million men--and could run considerably higher.
The pace appears to have been sufficient, despite the
enemy's heavy losses, to raise North Vietnamese nu-
merical strength well above the late 1967 level.
Moreover, as long as Hanoi pursues the type of
economy of force tactics it used in the last enemy
offensive flurry in South Vietnam in August and Sep-
tember, its personnel requirements are reduced.
There is no convincing evidence that the decline in
infiltration is due to manpower shortages in North
Vietnam.
25X1
ApprovedFor Release 2003/10/15: CIA-RDP78TO2095ROO0500010001-3
-
 ,
f~ Approved For
1
CIA ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MACV MAIN AND LOCAL FORCE OB'
31 January 1968
NaMly Identified Units
304th NVA Inf Division 10,000
320th NVA Inf Division 7,000
31st NVA Inf,,Regt 1, 500
40th NVA Arty Regt 1,500
208th NVA Arty Regt 1,500
Small Units Omitted
Specialized district units 4,000
Specialized province units 2,000-3,000
City units 3,000
Unusual echelon units 1,000
TDY (5%)
Unlisted Support Personnel Integral
21,500
10,000- 11,000
6,000
to Divisions
TOTAL ADDITIONS
5,000- 10,000
42.500- 45.500
N1ACV Main and Local Force OB
GRAND TOTAL
115,000
.157.500-163, 500
29 February 1968
Newly Identified Units
12,610
4th NVA Inf Regt (Ind)
1,400
45th NVA Inf Regt (Ind)
1,400
164th NVA Arty Regt (Ind)
1,500
328th VC Inf Regt (Ind)
900
14th NVA Bn
210
70th VC MF Bn
350
72nd VC MF Bn
350
74th VC MF Bn
350
529th' NVA Engr :Bn
350
83rd VC MF Bn
610th NVA Bn
25X1
 Approved For Relea - 5R000500010001-3
Newly Identified Units (Cont.)
101st NVA Bn
K-39 NVA Bn
408th VC Sap Bn.
307th VC Bn
400
511th VC Bn
500
306B VC Bn
400
40th NVA Arty Regt
1,500
208th NVA Arty Regt
1,500
Other Cateeories
TOTAL ADDITIONS
NNACV Main and Local Force OB
GRAND TOTAL
21,000- 27,000
33.610- 39.610
122,900
56,510-162.510
25X1
Approved For Releas 5R000500010001-3 25X1
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
 25X1
Approved For Rele
CIA ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MACV MAIN AND LOCAL FORCE OB
31 January 1968
Newly Identified Units
304th NVA Inf Division 10,000
320th NVA Inf Division 7,000
31st NVA Inf.Regt 1,500
40th NVA Arty Regt 1,500
208th NVA Arty Regt 1,500
Small Units Omitted
Specialized district units 4,000
Specialized province units 2,000-3,000
City units 3,000
Unusual echelon units 1,000
:c?Y (5%)
21,500
10,000- 11,000
6,000
Unlisted. Support Personnel Integral
to Divisions 5,000--10,000
TOTAL ADDITIONS 42.500- 48,500
14ACV Main and Local Force OB 115,000
GRAND TOTAL 157.500-163.500
29 February 1968
Newly Identified Units
4th NVA Inf Regt (Ind) 1,400
45th NVA Inf Regt (Ind) 1,400
164th NVA Arty Regt (Ind) 1,500
328th VC Inf Regt (Ind)
14th NVA Bn
70th VC MF Bn
72nd VC MF Bn
74th VC MF Bn
529th NVA Engr Bn
83rd VC MF Bn
610th NVA Bn
350
350
350
12,610
Approved For Releas
25X1
 25X1
Approved For Relebse 9003110115 ? r_1A-Rnp78T02095R000500010001-3
Newly Identified Units (Cont.)
101st NVA Bn
K-39 NVA Bn
408th; VC Sap Bn
307th VC Bn
400
511th VC Bn
500
306B VC Bn
400
40th NVA Arty Regt
1,500
208th NVA Arty Regt
1,500
Other Categories
219000- 27
000
TOTAL ADDITIONS
,
33,610- 39.610
14A.CV Main and Local Force OB
900
122
GRAND TOTAL
,
1.56.510-162.510
Approved For Release - R000500010001-3 25X1
 Approved Fo
0500010001-3 25X1
COMMUNIST FORCES IN ;NAM
31 January 1968
MACV Original
MACV 31 March
Update
CIA Estimate
115,016
138,900
160,000
Viet Cong
59,397
61,300*
60,000
NVA
55,619
77,600
100,000**
Guerrillas
72, 605
60,409
110,000-120,000
Administrative Services
37,725
37,700
75,000-100,000
Sub-Total
225,346
237,009
345,000-380,000
Self Defense Militia
100,000
Assault Youth
10,000- 20,000
Political Infrastructure
84,000
84,000
100,000-120,000
Tota :
309,346
321,009
X55,000-620,000
IncludF' 1O,000-12,000 NVA soldiers in VC units as replacements or fillers.
15,000 NVA soldiers in VC units as replacements or fillers.
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R0p0500010001-3
 Approved F
500010001-3 25X1
COY24UNIST FORCES IN SOUTH "T'TNAM
29 February 1968
MACV 31 'March
MACV Original Update
CIA Estimate
VC/NVA Main and Local Forces
122,931
123,000
155,000-160,000
Viet Cong
50,263*
50
, 600*
45,000-
50,000
NVA
72,668
72
,400
110,000**
Guerrillas
47,500
54,499
90,000-110,000
Administrative Services
33,700
33,600
75,000-100,000
Sub-Total
204,131 211,09
320,000-370,000
Self Defense Militia
100,000
Assault Youth
10,000- 20,000
Political Infrastructure
84,000 84,000
100,000-120,000
Total
288,131 295.09
530,000-610,000
Includes 10,000-12,000 N )VA soldiers in VC units as replacements or fillers.
**Includes 15,000 NVA soldiers in VC units as replacements or fillers.
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78T02095F 000500010001-3
 25X1
Approved For Release
2 October 1968
NEWRANDUM FOR: Deputy Director, OER
SUBJECT : Infiltration Estimates
1. Attached are our views on a beat estimate for INVA infiltration
for the first eight months of 1968.
2. As is clear in the draft, two methodological approaches resting
on different assumptions as to'the enemy's utilization of group numbers
have been employed. Each of those approaches in turn has been calcu-
lated with certain varying internal assumptions. Overall, for both
methodologies and assumptions, we have come up with a range of 20$,000--
2:>.2,000 (210,000-230,000). We believe that this range suggests a
higher degree of confidence in the estimate than is justified. Altera-
tions of the assumptions in both of the methodologies would tend to
broaden the range. We feel quite confident that the lower end of these
estimates is so conservatively biased that it can stand as a minimum
figure of 210,000. The same conservative bias of both of these metho-
dologies and the many uncertainties associated with this whole problem
would lead us however to broaden the estimates by some 10,000, giving
us a range of 2'10,,000-240,,000.
- 3. We believe this range to be consistent with estimates recently
proposed other components who have worked on this oroblem.
jThe DIA estimate seems to have remained at about 215,000, but
25X1
in the light of this morning's discussions, DIA might be willing to 25X1
accept a range such as we are suggesting.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
 25X1
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
Next 8 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
 .
}
Approved-For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
1. The estimate of 300, 000 enemy loses a year is kayerd i
air Nmxpbiart derived as a compromise between expected losses if
he revefls to a protracted w ar and those which he would sustain
i he continues the forwa.rd4deployment whichIhas c'haracteriVed
his operations since his repulse from the cities air Tet.
2. Protracted War.
a. Killed. Based on a study of enemy mcticaxK killed during
1965 to 1967, it was found that every addition of a battalion to the
c allied OB resulted in an increase in kills by all allied battalions.
Pro4cting the 65-67 casualties in accordance withfexpected allied
buildup tduringlthe remainder of 1968, it is estimated that 80, 000
enemy would be killed during the final nine months of 1968. Adding
this to the known 84, 000 killed during the 'first three months, including
Te t, provides a total of 164, 000 killed during 1968
b. Total Losses. MACV estimates total enemy losses during
1965 to 1967 as 289, 400. _Th-is -includes KIA, died of-disabled- fwound-s;
PWs,
deserted, defected, and- . It does riot include died or disabled---
of ax= sickness. This figure is-1. 62 tinier the 179, (100 estima-ted a s
killed during he I same period. Applying -this5 same 1. 62 factor-to
tlio owtiti,ate of 164, 000 to be killed in 1968 gives~an estimate of
267, 000 total enemy losses)during? the )year.
3., Forward Strategy. During the month of March, the -enemyBustalned
ap3pr f XI9dI?I (d RAQ .1 Oj~ -I eC4_fi j?7bj&W Pg5P2Pe q%04
Zgh
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
I "Jk ed F4PFPI&-tc 130kl0/151:--CIA-E t~P78T,44WQ5R0005 4k001 ,
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
.r-
\ ' lnW
Q1--
Ik V\DO-l- L& sd Jr
V\"tW , 1 _I G- yf }f 5:
u L. LCD `a cSL" ----
wve q Mn.\-1,.' - _ lLN k `! tangy- _ +h
Aye ---z: ~ r
roveli~ r'`ktelea%se 2C13/10R'S '-CIA-I DP78T-dib`9 50 000 ' "s~' , s
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
'k.
P,~Jr'..L. vet,/
I ~Approved'Foi ReIeas'e 2t /10/1 d*- 6TO2MR000 00, 1 poi
C?me
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TG2095R000500010001-3
C
---
_ts~ (,k g`t,uJ
)C 1.61--
14, 60o x-,
A 1.41-
1-4 'sue
Y) )
Approved For Release 2003/10/15-- -CIA-RDP-78IO2Q95R0-09300010001_3
~v . r..z. y > 4v \p w\.;" ~-
iii. i (lo l
ls}- Qv (" V
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 1A 78T02095R000500010001-3
DELEGATION
SAIGON
Colonel Daniel 0. Graham, USA (Chief of Delegation)
Colonel Paul Weiler, USMC
Cmdr. James A. Meacham, USN
let Lt. Kelly L. Robinson, USA
HONOT4DIU
Lt. Colonel George M. Hamscher, USA
Lt. Colonel James S. Wilson, USMC
OFFICE OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, COMPTROLLER
Jerry E. Bush*
DIA
-25X1
SERVICES*
ARMY - MAJOR Joseph R. Dinda
NAVY - Cmdr. Roy L. Beavers
MARINE - Lt. Colonel Edward W. Dzialo
AIR FORCE - Lt. Colonel Scott S. Porter
Captain Richard L. Bohannon (alternate)
To be announced each day
To be announced
*AR0rdV(fr Release 2003/10/15: CIA-RDP78T Q6Cj;(j~
~`~ ~T~' uc; r; aad
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15'': A`-f P78TO2095R000500010001-3
Conference on DCI Assessment
of Enemy Strengths
10-1 April 19
Day
Wednesday
Thursday
Thursday
Friday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Schedule of Conference Rooms
t
D
Time
Room No.
e
a
10 Apr
0900-1630
T E 26
11 Apr
0900-1300
7 D 34
11 Apr
1300-1630
7E26
12 Apr
0900-1300
7E26
12 Apr
1300-1630
4 F 31
15 Apr
0900-1630
7 E 26
16 Apr
0900-1630
7E26
Approved For Release 2003/10/15: CIA-RDP78T Ppp599Q10001-3
 Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/10/15 : CIA-RDP78TO2095R000500010001-3