OUT-OF-COUNTRY THREAT ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000100030007-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2005
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: November 19, 1969
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For Release 2006/11/06 - 78T02095R000100030007-8
19 November 1969
SUBJECT: Out-of-Country Threat Estimate
1. The purpose of this memorandum is to calculate a series of
consistently defined out-of-country threat estimates to be added to
the series of Main and Local Force estimates developed by the average
battalion strength methodology for the period end 1967 through the
.3rd Quarter 1969.
2. In addition to those enemy units within or near the borders
of South Vietnam, there are a number of NVA units located in southern
North Vietnam which should be considered as part of the enemy threat
estimate to the Republic. These units are picked up in the threat
estimate when they infiltrate or exfiltrate into the threat area,
arbitrarily defined as stretching. generally from Dong Hoi, North
Vietnam, to the DMZ area. The threat estimate does not include those
units subordinate to the B-5 Front which normally operate in and out
of the DMZ and which are already carried in the "in-country" estimate.
3. The following chart indicates those NVA units and their
estimated strengths which should be considered as part of the enemy's
military threat to South Vietnam for the month shown. Changes in the
threat from one month to another reflect the fact that the units
either were picked up in the "in-country" estimates or dropped from
the order of battle altogether as they moved out of the threat area.
4. In December 1967, seven NVA regiments (i.e., 31st Independent
Regiment, 3 regiments of the 304th and 3 of the 320th Divisions) were
in the process of infiltrating South Vietnam and are considered as a
threat. These units arrived in South Vietnam in January in preparation
for the Tet offensive with an estimated 20,000 troops.
5. The March threat figure comprised the estimated 2,000 men
infiltrating in the 36th Regiment. This regiment arrived in early
April and is included in the June "in-country" estimate. Also, during
the first quarter 1968, two other NVA regiments arrived in South Vietnam the 27th in February and the 141st in March. They, in effect, transited
the threat area during the quarter, however, and are not considered in
any quarterly threat estimate. These regiments are carried as in-country
units in our March estimates.
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6. The June threat consisted of the infiltrating 138th Regiment.
This regiment arrived in July with some 2,000 men. Although the 88th
and 102nd Regiments, 308th Division, and the 246th Independent Regiment
arrived in South Vietnam in May and June, they are not part of the
threat estimates but carried as in-country units for end-June. They
also transited the threat area during the quarter. (It should be noted
that current monthly estimates made at the time units were in the threat
area would have placed them there. Therefore, there are some apparent
discrepancies between certain past estimates and this series.)
7. The third quarter'1968 saw the exfiltrating of the entire
304th Division and the 88th and 102nd Regiments of the newly arrived
308th Division. After suffering heavy casualties at Khe Sanh, the
304th Division withdrew from South Vietnam during June. Although
during its initial exfiltration the division still may have been a
threat, the heavy casualties incurred in South Vietnam and the fact
that the unit had moved deep into North Vietnam by the end of the
quarter keeps the division from being considered a threat in September.
The two regiments of the 308th Division, however, are considered a
threat in September. Although the regiments are believed to have left
South Vietnam in July, they initially deployed to base areas in Laos
and only later moved northward to North Vietnam. Because of their
suspected proximity to South Vietnam and the fact that the units were
believed to have been able to return to South Vietnam at anytime, they
are carried as part of the threat estimate for September. The units
were dropped entirely from the estimates in the fourth quarter when
suggested that both units had moved to North Vietnam.
8. The threat estimate of 20,000 for December 1968 includes three
infantry regiments of the 304th Division, three infantry regiments of
the 325th Division (AKA the 308th), and one artillery regiment which
deployed to the Dong Hoi area of North Vietnam in December. After
suffering heavy casualties in Quang Tri, South Vietnam, the 320th
Division began deploying to North Vietnam in October. Because it was
apparently being replaced by either the 304th or 325th Division, it is
not in the December threat estimate.
9. During the first quarter of 1969, only the 38th Regiment
deployed to the DMZ area and was picked up in the "in-country" estimates.
The other six regiments appear to have been in a holding position
during the period and continued to be carried as a threat for March.
In addition, a 281st AAA Regiment appeared in the Dong Hoi area and is
included in the March estimate of 20,000.
10. In June 1969, the threat had diminished to some 9,000 troops
comprised of the 9th and 66th Regiments (304th Division) and the 218th
AAA and 204th Artillery Regiments. This reduction in threat resulted
 Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CI 020958000100030007-8
from the northward deployment out of the threat area of the entire
325th Division and the picking up of the 24th Regiment (304th Division)
in the in-country estimate in April. The shift of the 204th Artillery
Regiment out of the DMZ area to Dong Hoi did not affect the total
estimate as the unit was already carried as part of the "in-coY ,try"
estimate and simply moved to the threat category. '+
11. The September threat of 10,000 troops included the 24th and
66th Regiments (304th Division), and the 218th AAA, 204th Artillery,
and the 138th Infantry Regiments. During the third quarter, the 9th
Infantry Regiment (304th Division) moved down from the Dong Hoi into
the DMZ area, This unit was dropped from the threat category and
picked up in the "in-country" estimate. At the same time, the 24th
Regiment moved out of Quang Tri to Dong Hoi.; the unit was thus shifted
from the in-country to the out-of-country threat estimate. In
addition, the 138th Infantry Regiment appears to have pulled out of
the DMZ in early July and moved to Dong Hoi where it has not been
heard from since. This unit also was shifted from the in-country to
the threat category.
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Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP78TO209,5R00.0100030007-8
Out-of-Country Threat
Dec 67 31st Regt.
304th Div.
320th Div.
Mar 68 36th Regt.
Jun 68 138th Regt.
Sep 68 88th Regt., 308th Div.
102nd Regt., 308th Div.
Dec 68 304th Div.
325th Div.
38th Arty Regt.
Mar 69 304th Div.
325th Div..
218th AAA Regt.
Jun 69 9th Regt., 304th Div.
66th Regt., 304th Div.
204th Arty Regt.
218th AAA Regt.
Sep 69 24th Regt., 304th Div.
66th Regt., 304th Div.
204th Arty Regt.
218th AAA Regt.
138th Inf Regt.
Strength
20,000
2,000
2,000
4,000
20,000
20,000
9,000
10,000
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