SOUTH VIETNAM: ESTIMATE OF COMMUNIST LOSSES 1965-1967

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78S02149R000200300015-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: CHART

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KIA
Seriously Wounded.
Captured
"Chieu Hoi
(military)
Deserters
South Vieth . 4stinite of CC uniet Losses
7
1965 1966
35,000
19,000-300
6,300
9,500
57,000
l9,ooo
11,500
9,500 11,500
00-90, 3
000-137,0 0 1 O,tlO5-150 0
o u c h V etz z; A l l o c a t i o n o ' Comunl.st Losses 4 'lay ri o
, Cad
29,000--35,00 0
31t.,000-39,000
55,0-63,000
167
50,000-60,000
35,000-t0,000
000-50,000
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 Approved For
as high as 5 m
people. Depending on the extent of VC' access to contested ax
most of whom live in the delta, region.
About 500,000 physically fit young males are contained in the contra:
Each year an additional 30,000
1965 the VC recruited an
5'
0 youths become
d 80,000 personnel and. Probably will
from 7,000 to 10,000 per month in 1966, which is close to their rnaximu. capability.
The refugee problem has little effect on the VC recruitment effort,, because the
m lority of refugees are coming from areas other than the delta and include fwT
lstion amounts to at
During 1966 the VC will have to make up for their estimated losses of 90,E
;o increase their force
they
attempting
)ut 5,000 troops. in addition they may ?provide replacements for e
losses, although total infiltration from North Vietnam of 70,000 to 90,000 troops
,ugh to expand the 1A troop level by an
most *TVA losses. At any rate the total VC military
ed 49, 3f o t
at least 100,000 - 110. ,000 is near the upper level of VC
apabil.ities. During 1967 the recruitment and training capebil.iti.ee
of the VC will not be adequate to cover
cted casualty rate of 130,000 -
150,000. North Vietn n: will thus have to shoulder more of the r npoFrer burden and
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North-Vietnam
We estimate that North Vietna has ample manj
quantitative to
o support substantial increases in its ax
,n.g essential civil/econc
activities. Despite such factors as
of the increased use of women in the agricultural see
Vietnm still has large eno
ervea of labor in the ff
the service industries, and in sectors where la
employed. to more than
spective demands. This reservoi.
elude a large supply of skilled labor, much sue" irhieh has
siphoned off to tak
ng the allocation of
probably
persons have been called into military service in North
Vietnam in 1965 and thus far in 1966 to support the wur effort in South Vietnam
to reach and maintain a total strength slightly in
many as 95,000 North Vietnamese troops may have been infiltrated
70, 0in 1966 alone -- both as replacements and
troops lost as a result of the fighting and as additions to force levels
or discharged probably is n
at tsent. Total conscription in No
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in -~mr associated activities; and the regi
asud. that the troops moving south and those retiring because
replaced. The actual number of persons being retired
:r Resources
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r' b y has approachel the number of pbysica
of 18 in 1965 -66.
resorted to full mobilization, with
1.7 million -Am-on ready to replace men in the labor force. At less
and women now serving in the militia probably are already devoting about half of
lita
-49 rho are phys
ce. A large share of this pool vroule
'uly 1966 Ho Chi Minh iseu
el to e t
North Vietnam had been mobilized on a selective bay
July order supposedly mobilized additional
mobilization has become available, hmieve
mobilization" order. Although
mobilization served merely as a propagandistic e aortatton to the North Vi
people and acti
fleeterl call-ups already initiated. The propaganda
benefits i ere Immediate, with thousands of men and women reportedly applying for
enlistment; but, again, there is no evidence that even these volunteers have been
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placed on activ
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er, a large number of persons still
ching the
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