SECURITY SECTION SIGN-OFF ON THE CROP YIELDS DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78B04747A000400020005-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 6, 1966
• Content Type: MFR

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6 October 1966
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT : Security Section "Sign-Off" on the "Crop Yields"
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of the Logistics Security Staff has read
the "Crop Yields" design objective and finds it acceptable. The
list of proposed sources has not been checked out and there is a
possibility that one or more of them do not have the proper clear-
Development objectives
REFERENCE: Telephone Conversation, 5 October 1966, with
ances. If so, I have told
that we would eliminate
any which do not have the proper clearance.
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ISS/DB/P&DS
Distribution:
Original - File
1 - Chief, SB/SS
2 - DB chronos
Declass Review By NIMA/DOD
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16 September 1966
DESIGN OBJECTIVE-
ESTIMATING CROP YIELDS THROUGH AN ANALYSIS OF HIGH ALTITUDE
RECONNAISSANCE PHOTOGRAPHY
1. INTRODUCTION. This research objective describes the require-
ments for a study effort to determine the feasibility of developing
photo interpretation techniques and reference keys which would,
ultimately, enable a trained interpreter to estimate wheat and
other crop yields in selected areas of the world through a study of
aerial photography (either black and white or color) acquired at
regular intervals over the croplands during the growing season. It
would be desirable to be able to make these crop yield estimates
during the growing season. Because this is, of necessity, a
research effort into a new area of photo interpretation the exact
details of the proposed photo analysis program cannot be itemized
very specifically in this design objective.
2. BACKGROUND.
a. When the economy of a foreign nation is being studied, one
of the major intelligence problems relating to agriculture is an
evaluation of crop prospects and annual production achievements
for the major crops. At the present time estimates are based
primarily on such sources as current weather information, press reports,
and, where possible, observations by US Embassy officials and other
travelers. In the case of some countries much that appears in print
about crop yields is exaggerated, while for others very little
information of any sort is reported in the news, or is available
Hour f
Rom autoo tk
from other sources. Eta".
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b. The crop yields of such countries not only play a large
part in their internal economies, but determine to a large degree
how much assistance they can give to the smaller nations. It is
believed, therefore, that for a number of years it will be important
to know how successful these countries are in meeting their goals
in agricultuure.
c. Preliminary conversations with experts in the field of
aerial photography suggest that, given adequate R&D support, there
may be some potential for developing new photographic interpretation
techniques that would be useful in estimating crop types, acreages,
and, ultimately, yields. A feasibility study is required to
determine if this type of information can ultimately be obtained
from high altitude aerial photography.
3. REQUIREMENTS.
a. Results Expected From the Study Effort.
It is anticipated that this study will lead to the development
of interpretive techniques whereby photo interpreters can, through
an analysis of photographic imagery (either black and white or
color) acquired at regular intervals during the growing season,
estimate crop types, estimate crop acreages and, ultimately,
estimate crop yields. Any such techniques developed must be
applicable to the task of analyzing imagery (either black and white
or color) comparable to that obtained from state-of-the-art,
high resolution, high altitude photo reconnaissance systems even
though the study effort itself need not utilize such imagery. The
crop yield estimating techniques must be accurate within certain
ranges of error and the results obtained must be verifiable.
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The permissible range of error in the yield estimate will depend
to a considerable extent on the time that the estimate is made.
For example, in the case of winter wheat which is seeded in the fall
and harvested the following summer, it would be useful to have an
estimate early in the spring to give some measure as to how well
the wheat survived the winter -- i.e., percentage of winterkill.
At this stage even a qualitative estimate would be useful -- i.e.
the stand is good or, alternatively, the stand has been reduced
by 30% due to winterkill. In view of the fact that crop prospects
must be reported throughout the growing season, crop estimates at
various stages of growth during the spring and summer would be
useful. An estimate at the critical "heading" period, for example,
would be extremely useful. The permissible range of error in the
yield estimate at this date, of course, would be somewhat greater
than an estimate of the crop made just prior to harvest. A
desirable goal would be a range of error of, +5% for an estimate
at harvest time and, +15% for an estimate at the "heading" stage.
In the initial stages of introducing a new method, a greater range
of error would be quite acceptable and would be useful in checking
and supplementing Qther methods of yield estimation.
b. Techniques by Which Desired Results Will Be Obtained.
The details of the proposed feasibility study effort are being
left open intentionally. The Government is looking for creative
ideas from. responding contractors in this matter.
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d. Planned Length of Study Effort.
The Government assumes that this study effort could be carried
out within a 9- to 12-month time period.
e. Use of Simulated, High Altitude Photography During the Study
Effort. The analysts and researchers assigned to this study effort
should be familiar with the quality and nature of the imagery acquired
currently by very high altitude aerial photo systems. This stipulation is
made even though the bulk of the study might be carried out using photo-
graphy which would be only a simulation of operational imagery.
Photography used as a simulation of operational imagery should have
the following characteristics:
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 Approved Fw-Relea M"T781304WAR0040002000-5-1
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20. June 1966
ESTIMATING CROP YIELDS THROUGH AN ANALYSIS OF HIGH AlTITULE RECONNAIS-
SANCE PHOTOGRAPHY
~. INTRODUCTION. This research objective describes the requirements
':sr a study effort to'determine the feasibility of developing photo
-r:terpretation techniques and reference keys which would, ultimately,
,,-able a trained interpreter to estimate wheat crop yields in selectea
; as of the world through a study of aerial photography acquired at
r_ ,alar intervals over the croplands during the growing season. It
would be desirable to make these crop yield estimates during the growing
season. Because this is, of necessity, a research effort into a new
area of photo interpretation the exact details of the proposed photo
analysis program cannot be itemized very specifically in this design
ob,: ect '.ve .
2. BI_;. AGROUND .
a. When the economy of a foreign nation is being studied, one
o the major intelligence problems relating to agriculture is an
e--,valuation of crop prospects and annual production achievements for
major crops. At the present time estimates are based primarily
e: such sources as current weather information, press reports, and,
w-:-,re possible, observations by US Embassy officials and otter
1:cavciers. In the case of some countries much that appears in print
aL.out crop yields is exaggerated, while for others very little
y ax1~r.:atic
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