DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE OFFICE OF POLITICAL RESEARCH JUNE 1974 WORK PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-05343A000100110004-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2002
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 1, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
OFFICE OF POLITICAL RESEARCH
June 1974
WORK PROGRAM
The emphasis for OPR in the first half of 1974 has
been on meeting Presidential and
for in-depth papers
25X1 The papers on
one on the Soviet
on China,
nd India
other top-level requests
the USSR, and India.
have been published, the
succession is being reviewed within
CIA, and China in 1980-85 and in the Year 2000 is awaiting
comments from other agencies in the Intelligence Community.
Among other studies published during the second
quarter of 1974 was Law of the Sea: Issues and Implications;
it was prepared at the request of the Council on International
Economic Policy and was subsequently distributed widely in
response to Intelligence'Community,requests. With regard
to the experimental series projects, the first phase of
OPR's testing of Gurr's frustration-aggression theories
has been completed, one of the Bayesian exercises (on Vietnam)
was concluded in June, and the other (on Sino-Soviet hostilities)
was initiated in May.
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Because of new tasks laid on from above, some
slippage occurred in the pace of projects in the OPR
Work Program issued in April. The present edition of
the program is, nonetheless, far from a repetition of
the previous one. A number of challenging studies have
been added, some in response to requests and others
suggested by events. And an increased effort has been
made to schedule the studies realistically.
The schedule listing is organized as follows:
Page
I. Experimental Series Projects and
Follow-up Reports 3
Research Studies, Third Quarter
Research Studies, Fourth Quarter 8
IV. Longer Term Studies, Underway and
Planned 15
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I. Experimental Series Projects and Follow-up Reports
1) The Likelihood of Sino-Soviet Hostilities.
This project has been developed in accord with instructions
from the DCI and the DDI. It is, in part, an experimental
multivariate Bayesian analysis. The participants are 12
analysts concerned with Soviet or Chinese affairs in diverse
CIA components. Each weighs incoming data to revise initial
assessments of the likelihood of Sino-Soviet hostilities
and the level of tension between the two countries. The
project began in May 1974 and will continue for a year or
so. Beginning in July, progress reports will be issued
periodically. (Direction and coordination:
2) A Critique of the Bayesian Analysis Project
on the Likelihood of a Major North Vietnamese Military
Offensive. This report will examine the accomplishments
and problems of two Bayesian analyses recently conducted
by OPR. The first of these involved CIA analysts and was
begun in December 1973. The second, initiated in February
at USIB direction, drew upon experts from agencies in the
Intelligence Community. Both concluded in June. Progress
reports for each were issued weekly.
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3) Handbook on Application of the Bayesian Analysis
to Intelligence Problems.
offices, directorates, and
before the end of the year.
A do-it-yourself manual for other
agencies. It will be published
4) An Analytical Model for Assessing the Causes
and Consequences of Political Violence. Phase I of this
project establishes a model based on Ted Gurr's frustration-
aggression theories, and tests it against Chile for applica-
bility in gauging situations of potential political conflict.
Phase II is designed to test further the more promising
aspects of the model. It will involve time-series experi-
ments, applying the model to selected country situations
where political dissension and popular dissatisfaction
appear to be significant. A paper establishing the model
will be issued in July, and the time-series experiments
will begin in August cr September and continue at least
through 1974.
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Research Studies, Third Quarter
1) The Anti-Confucian Campaign: A Case Study in
Chinese Politics.
this analysis goes
25X1AgAld personalities.
Aided by parallels in previous campaigns,
behind allegories and suggestions to aims
2) The China Factor in Soviet Strategic Planning.
An examination of how the Soviets factor the China problem
into their overall requirements for deterrence and strategic
"sufficiency." Among the questions to be considered are
what this implies for their strategic-political relations
with the US and what it does to US-Soviet deterrence
25X1A9A stability?
in close consultation with OSR)
3) The Changing Shape of the Soviet-Chinese-US
Triangle. This 'study will try to assess Soviet perceptions
of the degree to which the triangle has been altered by the
events of the last year. It will attempt to factor in the
Soviet view of trends in both Soviet-US and Sinc?US rela-
tions, the Soviet view of the events which led to the present
suspension of Sino-Soviet border negotiations, and the Soviet
interpretation of the more confident Chinese posture toward
the USSR which has emerged over the past year.
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5) The Coming Soviet Succession. The emphasis
will be on such questions as why succession is a problem
for the USSR, what the interplay of forces determining
the outcome is likely to be, and what trends will affect
the form, composition, and policies of a future leadership.
This study was undertaken to fulfill a Presidential request.
6) The Implications of Marshal Grechko's Promotion
for the Institutional Role of the Military in Soviet
Policymaking. The paper is aimed at meeting an expressed
interest of the NSC staff.
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9) French-US Relations: An Historical Perspective
and the Outlook Under Giscard. This is the first of a
series of studies of leadership opinion in the principal
25X1A9A European states.
11) Climate, Food, and World Politics. Food
scarcity problems and their implications for US policies.
Does the food-population problem threaten some years
hence to impinge on international political affairs in
as disturbing a way as the energy crisis?
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III. Research Studies, Fourth Quarter
1) Chou E -lai's View of the World. Does Chou's
record of perceiving and exploiting opportunities throw
light on where he will find further ones?
2) China without Chou. This is the first part
of a trilogy (China without Mao and China without Either
will follow) on the succession issue. It will identify
those who may assume Chou's various roles, and it will
fill the intelligence gap left by the assumption that Mao
25X1A9A will go first.
3) China's Regional and Provincial Leadors: The
Continuing Purge. This study will concentrate en factors
that will be important in the succession.
4) The Soviet Threat: Chinese Perceptions and
Responses. The border situation is only one element in
this comprehensive analysis.
5) Crises in Sino-Soviet Relations: Retrospect
and Prospect. A study of past crises in Sino-Soviet rela-
tions in search of insights, patterns, and if possible a
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model for forecasting conflicts. The paper is designed
to support the Bayesian project on the likelihood of
25X1A9A hostilities.
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6) The Soviet Foreign Policy Apparatus. An
examination of the functions and interactions of the
bureaucratic elements which contribute to the formulation
of Soviet foreign policy; e.g., the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, the Central Committee Departments, the Ministry
of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Trade, the KGB, and
the Committee on Foreign Economic Relations. One focus
will be on their roles and rivalries as specific interest
groups with respect to a range of policy issues.
7) Concerning Soviet "Intentions" and the Meaning
of Detente. An attempt at a definition of the degree to
which Soviet policy formulation and behavior are directed
toward consciously designed outcomes; the difference
between behavior shaped by long-term objectives and that
which seeks immediate advantage or is purely opportunistic.
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8) The Changing Soviet Perceptions of the USSR's
World Role. A consideration of the opportunities, risks,
or policy implications the Soviets perceive in such momentous
changes as their attainment of parity with the US in strategic
weapons and the emergence of China as a great power rival.
The principal objects of study will be the political and
military leadership, the principal commentators of the
central press organs, and the staffs of the international
25X1A9A affairs institutes.
25X1A9A
9) CEMA as a Factor in East-West Relations in
Europe. A study of the role of CEMA in the Soviet and
East European
West European integration.
with OER)
approach to the West, particularly regarding
in close consultation
10) The Political Dynamics of Soviet Foreign Military
and Economic Aid. A study of the institutional pressures
for and against extending economic and military aid to
foreign countries; the principal concern is with the
political factors which impinge on such programs rather
than their scope and effectiveness.
OSR, OER, and OCI)
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11) Western Europe as a Factor in Soviet Political
and Strategic Thought. This paper will examine Soviet
thinking about the political and strategic prospects for
Western Europe, including ties with the US and prospects
for integration, and will consider the effects of such an
assessment on Soviet behavior.
12) The Soviet-Palestinian Connection. To take a
fresh look at Soviet relations with the Palestinians,
with emphasis on Soviet efforts to manipulate and use
them, especially the fedayeen, to Soviet advantage in the
post-October 1973 period.
13) The Politics of Soviet Strategic Weapons
Acquisition. The aim i3 to trace and explain the process
of ICBM, SLBM, and ABM design, commissioning, development,
production, and deployment, with emphasis on who and what
institutions became involved and how.
14) The Party, the Army, and the Future of the
Yugoslav State. Appraisals of the Party's revitalized
role in the Yugoslav system and of the political role of
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the army are basic to any effort to anticipate the shape
of post-Tito Yugoslavia. This study will recapitulate
briefly the causes of the 1971-72 particularist crisis,
and examine the logic of subsequent structural reform in
the party and
and post-army
prospectives.
state, the political role of the military
nexus, and the Soviet factor in Belgrade's
16) Authoritarianism and Militarism in Southern
Europe. This will be the first in a series of studies on
the implications for US policy of two related phenomena:
the increase (or at least the persistency) of authoritarian
regimes, and the growing intrusion of the military as an
institution into politics throughout the world. The paper
will include both a general assessment of the phenomena of
authoritarian rule and military intervention in political
affairs and brief case studies applying the general frame-
work to the political scenes in Portugal, Spain, and Greece.
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17) An Analytical Study of The Modernization Process:
The Brazilian Case. An examination of the political dynamics
of modernization, in which an attempt will be made to identify
those factors which are most conducive to rapid social and
economic progress and those which inhibit it. These critical
factors will then be applied to Brazil's modernization pro-
gram, with a view to (1) testing the criteria for measuring
modernization, (2) trying to assess the long-run consequences
of Brazil's policies, and (3) relating the results to US
foreign policy interests.
18) The Peruvian Military as the Sculptor of a
Modern State. This is a companion case study to. The
Brazilian Case and forms a part of that larger project.
The military establishment in Peru has changed much in
the last 15 years, and it is trying to reshape the country
25X1A9A as well.
19) Nuclear Proliferation and World Polit:,,cs. This
study will assume that continued nuclear proliferation is
an inevitable trend. The project will include an assess-
ment of the likely consequences for international politics
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and for US interests of a substantial increase over the
next decade in the number of countries with nuclear weapons.
Would this prove any more destabilizing than proliferation
of nuclear technology limited, say, to power generation?
Would it increase the prospect that nearly all countries
will want nuclear weapons and that non-state actors (e:g.,
terrorist groups) will acquire them? What would be the
consequences for local conflicts? For regional rivalries?
For US-Soviet detente? For relations between the LDC's
25X1A9A and the developed countries?
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IV. Longer Term Studies, Underway and Planned
1) Terrorism: International Causes and Constraints.
Terrorism, narrowly defined as the use of terror in politics,
is generally a tactic of desperation by groups with in-
adequate resources to pursue their political strategies in
any other way. Nonetheless, it is having a profound disrup-
tive effect not only on target countries but on the "world
community" as well. The impact of the terrorists is ab-etted
by the transfer of technology and training, and other kinds
of support, from Communist countries and some industrialized
non-Communist countries. Will the high cost in disruption
cause a cutback in this support? And what could the nations
of the world do to constrain terrorism if they wanted to
25X1A9A cooperate?
2) Residual Soviet Political Assets in China? To
meet expressed interest of the DDI, this study will look
hard for evidence of pro-Soviet thinking, mainly among
economic and military planners.
3) The Peking Garrison Command. As this garrison
could be the key element in any leadership show-down, it is
important to know how it works and whom it will obey.
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4) Soviet Perceptions of the US, of US Strengths
and Weaknesses, and of Likely Future US Policy Courses.
Examines variant perceptions by categorized data array.
The aim is to test a fresh system for organizing and
evaluating diffused data and to provide a base for some
estimative judgments and perhaps model building.
and others)
5) Contemporary Soviet Strategic Policies,
Intentions, and Objectives. A detailed presentation of
where the Soviets are in their strategic thought and be-
havior, featuring treatment of such questions as the context
of Soviet military doctrine and how it has evolved.
25X1A9A
6) The Soviet Nationalities Problem: (I) The
Ukraine. The first of a series which will examine various
aspects of the problem and Moscow's attempts to deal with
25X1A9A it.
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8) Thailand: Factors Affecting Political Stability.
An examination of the factors which led to the 1973 political
upset, of the current strength of domestic forces and the
directions in which they are heading, and of the implica-
tions of Thai developments for US interests in the country.
9) Long-Term Patterns in Iran. A chapter of
this study, "Preliminary Observations on the Iranian
Monarchy," was distributed to a select list of recipients
in May. The subject is important in itself: Iran in its
region of the world is the principal US friend and supporter,
and there are great gaps in our understanding of the nature
of change taking place there and of what a post-Shah govern-
ment might look like. The study will employ diverse metho-
dologies -- study of elites as well as socio-economic
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? analysis. If these methodologies bear fruit on this pilot
? study, they will be tried out on other countries of equal
25X1A9A or higher priority, and others)
10) Social Transformation in the Arab States. To
make this topic of large dimension manageable, it will be
broken into selected country studies, treating in particular
those states which affect US policy interests and those
which illuminate developments outside their borders. Egypt,
Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco will be among? the countries.
The Palestinians, and perhaps Iraq and Algeria, will be taken
up as well. The approach to the topic will follow several
lines: study of the elites, present and past, and of develop-
ing new classes (if any); contrasts between goals and accom-
plishments; and some assessment of the effects of urbanization,
etc. Differences among the states will be as revealing as
their similarities.
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12) Political and Social Repercussions of the
Green Revolution. The implications not only of possible
failure but also of relative success. What happens to
surplus farm laborers in countries where output and pro-
ductivity do rise? What will be the effects if success
speeds the flow of people into the already overburdened
25X1A9A cities of the LDC's?
13) Poor Nations versus the Rich. A detailed study
of the strategies and tactics of the LDC's as they in-
creasingly combine to confront the industrialized nations
on economic and political issues. Using the data that
emerge from the Caracas LOS conference and other recent
international conclaves, this paper will assess the factors
that unite and divide the LDC's, that augment and detract
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from the effectiveness of their pressures, and that
encourage and discourage their aggressiveness. It might
include an assessment of the likely repercussion of
alternative strategies for the US in dealing with the
25X1A9A problem.
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