(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A006100070044-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 44
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2008/06/26: CIA-RDP78-01617A006100070044-5 1951
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GENERAL
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1. Vulnerability of Near East to Soviet aggression- US Em-
bassy Moscow, in considering the possibility of including
Israel in Western plans for Near Eastern defense, points
to the danger that with major attention focused on the Far
East and Europe, the USSR may be planning to disturb the
66 relatively quiet and neglected Near Eastern garden this
year," The Embassy believes that such a Soviet move
might range from stepping up internal subversive programs
and creating mass unrest to armed revolts supported by
Kurdish and Azerbaijan "volunteers" from the Soviet Union.
It is considered further possible that, if the USSR is deter -
mined to precipitate World War III this year, major military
moves elsewhere in the world might be accompanied by out-
right invasion of certain Near Eastern areas, primarily with
the aim of denying to the West the strategic and petroleum
assets of the region. The Embassy points out in this con-
nection that it is questionable whether the USSR would under-
take a large-scale war of sustained duration without attempting
to gain access to Near Eastern oil. The Embassy believes that
in any case, regardless of the intentions of the USSR, the pre-
sent obviously weak and defenseless condition of the Near
Eastern countries constitutes an open invitation to the Kremlin
to indulge in direct or indirect aggression in that area.
Concerning possible Western defense plans, the Em-
bassy suggests that the recent show of Soviet friendliness
toward Near Eastern countries may well be the prelude to
surprise expansionist moves in the area and that therefore
the time has come to establish a working relationship between
NATO and the non-Communist Near Eastern countries. The
Embassy considers that the Israeli. bid for US military support
provides some leverage for bringing about some degree of
rapprochement between Israel and the Arab States, a develop-
ment which would permit positive steps toward a Near Eastern
regional collective security arrangement.
State Dept. review completed
'
Document No. 60's
NO CHANGE in Class.
[( DECLASSIFIED
Class. C: A:'"?:.D TO: TS S ~C)
DDA Mono, 4 Apr 77 ~/
Auth: DDA R '_:__G, 77/1763
T T Date. 3 APR 1978 By: 25X1
I
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3. Dutch Socialists favor sovereignty transfer of New Guinea--
According to US Embassy The Hague, Socialist Party leader
Van der Goes declared at a recent press conference that his
party favors the transfer of sovereignty over Netherlands New
Guinea to the Republic of Indonesia, with the provisions that-
(a) Netherlands trusteeship is maintained for 30 years; and
(b) proper financial arrangements are made between the Nether-
lands and Indonesia and law and order is guaranteed in New
Guinea. Van der Goes said the Socialist Party would urge the
resumption of negotiations with Indonesia along these lines and
that the main thing was that a solution should be found because
cooperation with Indonesia was more important than ultimate
Netherlands sovereignty over New Guinea. The Embassy has
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25X1
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learned that although Van der Goes' statement was not cleared
with the party executive board, it probably represents the
view of the majority of Socialist Party deputies in the Second
Chamber and the party executive will probably adopt this state-
ment as the official party view with few, if any, alterations.
Meanwhile, US Ambassador Cochran in Djakarta in-
dicates that the Indonesian Government will make known its
official position on the Netherlands New Guineaproblem on
8 Tanuary. Indonesian. officials expressed the hope to Cochran
that the Dutch will react promptly to the Indonesian statement
in order to prevent any trend toward protest meetings against
the Netherlands, sabotage, and similar disorders.
EUROPE
40 .YUGOSLAVIA: Renewed Trieste negotiations held desirable--
US Embassy Belgrade expresses its belief that the US, UK, and
French governments should let the Italian and Yugoslav govern-
ments know in the near future that the Western countries would
welcome a mutually acceptable solution to the Trieste problem.
The Embassy believes it dubious whether Italy and Yugoslavia
could reach an early agreement on their own and therefore
recommends that the three Western governments make a joint
approach, stressing the desirability of an early settlement, and
then be prepared to enter into the territorial aspects of the
problem if Italy and Yugoslavia reach an impasse.
NEAR EAST- AFRICA
5. IRAN: British officially backing Razmara -US Embassy London
reports the view of the British Foreign Office that Iranian Prime
Minister Razmara should not be replaced and that Foreign
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Secretary Bevin would not permit any effort to dismiss him.
A Foreign Office source also told the Embassy that although
the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company has been disappointed by
Razmara's failure to obtain parliamentary ratification of
a revised contract with the company and has expressed "doubt
of Razmaraes reliability, it would be going "much too far"
to attribute to the company a desire to bring about his
downfall.. The Anglo -Iranian Oil Company has reportedly been
given a "forcible" statement of the Foreign Office position
regarding Razmarao
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