CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY SPEECH EVALUATION NO. 36

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A006000030032-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2001
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: November 24, 1948
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2006/09/27: CIA-RDP78-01617AO06000030032-3
Copy No.
CENTRAL IMLLIGENCE AGENCY
Special Evaluation No. 36
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No C jGE in class. ^
\DECLAS::; rD
Class. TS S
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Date: ('.. s iltrtit By:
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24 Nbvember 190U,
THIS MILITARY SITUA^'ION IN CHIN ~
The presenr wt,i:sior oS tlxo -:?:~rnrrunsst
armies IS to destroy rbe eftec' 1 ~r ,,e 3r of the Nm irma ttEt roil-4j.
tary fxelcl forces and 1 h,?reb ? It nma4' org:onaxed l atiron t ar
resistance It is this objele" :', .ir,d riot r: crely wt intention
to capture Nank.ing., that in o:et?yrtnining the patters of the I r o
ent all-cut Communist rya: at;~at, ''rich Is a^.tesdi.irg frora llia h
Province to Ulf. vnvtrcn,.j +4 In achievbig this obj ~r.. -
tive, the Com;nun1sts iniw appear comrnfttcd to a coxccer*tz
drive against Nationaltst concentrations in the Hsuchou so-Mtor,
1though the Communists are also massing for attacks in
North China, a major n-tove against Nationalist forces In the
Tientsin-Peiping cm-ridor will probably await the cxrtcomg of
the battle for iisuchcni. If Communist operations continue at:.
the present accelerated tempo, it is estimated that C omrnjt
nist forces may succes .,fully attain their objective within the
next 30 days. The collapse of organized Nationalist milit*ry
resistance will probably force Chiang Kai -sshek's Governfl ent
to flee south or surrender to the Communists,
Estimated Strengths Although the National Government
currently claims to have over two
million men under arms, a more realistic estimate of thei
strength of the Goveransent Is tactical forces would probab y
be slightly less than one million troops capable of:! effecti
employment against Communist forces in North and Centel
China. However, the. loyalty and combat efficiency of a large
percentage of the tactical troops In Central China is question-
able. On the other hand, the total number of Communist o '-
fectives is believed to exceed one and one -half million troops,
possessing high morale and fairly good equipment.
North China In North China, the Nationalist Commander
Fu Tso-yi has under his immediate commid
approximately 300,000 well-trained and fairly Well-equip+d
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veterans. In holding the vital, Hugh extremely vulnerable
Ttent3in-PetplJ E-Malg t corridor, General Fu fa con ap' rc :-
imately 300,000 Communist troops grouped to the 'rest of
Peiping. Furthermore, as a consequence of the fall oo Man
churia, at least 400,r100 additional Communist troops have
become available fox opt=rations against General Fo. This
constitutes a potential threat of 700,000 Communist troops
presently available for a North or Central China operation:
'although North China is at present relatively quiet, current
reports indicate that the Communists are now concentratin
north of the vital Kailan coal -mining region, and nr*y soon
launch a drive in the Peiping-Tientsin area. If the C "aims .
nists should undertake such an offensive, they would proba$ity
be successful, despite General Fu's intention to defend thin.
area, in forcing Fu's withdrawal westward Into the Provincs
of Sulyuan. This would permit the Communists to Occupy
Peiping, Tientsin, and '.he corridor. Communist forces in
North China appear at present to be awaiting the outcome
of the battle for Hsuchou in Central China before making ait,
major move.
Central China In Central China, Communist forces are
currently estimated to number 4M:000 troj Ern;
they are capably led by Generals Chen Yt and Liu Po-cheng
Nationalist forces number approximately 800,000. Follow-t1 r
ing their temporary withdrawal on 17 November whon con-
fronted with determined and surprising Nationalist resists e
to the initial attack, the Communists have resumed their
attack in the Rsuchou area with feverish intensity. This
Communist setback appears to have been caused by it mis-
calculation on the part of Communist General Chen 'Vi'i who :
anticipated that Nationalist troops would defect in large
numbers at Hsuchou, much as they have done recenl*y in
Tsinan and :Manchuria. Present Communist strategy appear 3
to be designed to prevent a consolidation of Nationalist forces
in the Suhsten area between Hsuchou and Pangfou and to iso Ite
SE
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I
SEC ,T
the Nationalists in three pockets of resistance lccited east
of Hsuchov, north of Par ou, aad: near Mengchen , (north-
west of Pangia u ).
Conclusion US field estin-ates indicate that the E ornnm- rd s1
forces are capable of isolating and destroyi l
these Nationalist pocteta of resistance, a develop).-Mt whIt
would effectively destroy the rhtion-alist military rchineL
and open the road to flanking. The Communists unquesti
ably possess the initiative and the capability to tccomplisI
their mission. Wbether it will require weeks or months
depends upon how long Chiang Kai-shek can retain the loy* lty
and will to fight of an effective number of his troops.
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CHINA
COMMUNIST-CONTROLLED AREAS
17 NOVEMBER 1948
COMMUNIST CONCENTR,'--I SOra
COMMUNIST - CONTROLU, I AI SA
COMMUNIST DRIVE
COMMUNIST MOVEMEN'
NATIONALIST CONCENTR 11ON
NATIONALIST MOVEMENT
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