CRITICAL SITUATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A005900020003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 79
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2001
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 31, 1947
• Content Type: SUMMARY

EURO AN RECOVERY
diversion of US wheat shipments because the Belgian abreact. grain
Premier Spear of Belgium has made a request for an immediate
. supply ww oe exnausxea oy es i,iovemaer tseeitem 4
No significant new development.
CHINA
No significant new development.
Document, No.
NO CHANGE in Class. ^
^ DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: ApTS77 S
DDA Memo,
PR 197
Date: I By:
Auth:' REG 77/176.23
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GENERAL
1. UK position on Italian warships--Bevin has told US Ambassador
Douglas that he vii aious to be helpful regarding the return of
Italian warships assigned to the UK. Bevin also said that he is
considering the return of the Italian battleship now held by the
UK if he receives assurances that it will be promptly scrapped.
According to Bevin, the UK Admiralty is apprehensive lest the
Communists gain power in Italy and France,. because such a
development would make available to a potentially hostile power
a number of warships sufficient to render the UK position in the
Mediterranean exceedingly vulnerable.
2. ;atpsu impairs US-UK relations--US Ambassador Douglas
In London, in transmitting a UK aide memoire relating to ships
which are suspected of preparing for passage to Palestine with
illicit immigrants, states his belief that this aide memoire is
further evidence of the deep concern of the UK Government with
t o "`exolosl.ve In Palestine.. Douc*ias adds that: (a)
"It is clear that Palestine is a factor which disturbs US-UK under-
standing and cooperation"; and (b) the fact that US citizens finance
the "illegal"' refugee traffic to Palestine appears uppermost in
the minds of British officials.
3. oslavia ps aggres ive.orogram for Latin Arnttiqa--US
Ambassador Cannon in Belgrade, after conversations with a Yugo-
slav Foreign Office official, reports that Yugoslavia evidently
?flans an active and aggressive program for Latin America. Cannon
warns that the activities of Yugoslav agents in that area will deserve
as close attention as that paid to Soviet agents,
EUROPE
4. BELGIUM: Breadshort..,ge~ Imminent--US Ambassador Kirk for-
viards an urgent request from Premier Spaak for immediate US
aid in maintaining the Belgian bread ration because Belgium will
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have exhausted its bread grain supnly by 23 November. ]Kirk en-
dorses Soaak's request that three wheat boats be diverted from
Germany to Belgium if any are now en route. According to Kirk;
Bell efforts to obtain bread elsewhere have failed and the US
is the last resort. If the grain supply fails, Spaak fears the
post ical repercussions on his Government and possibly grave
consequences from Communist agitation.
Ambassador Cannon states that the refusal at the Yugoslav Foreign
Office to issue visas to Senator Knowland and Congressman Rooney
climaxes a period of "discourteous and surly negotiations with
:Yew parallels between nations assumed to have normal diplotic
relations."'
6. YUCB LA' A: US Senator and Con ressman refused visas--US
NEAR EAST-AFRICA
According to US Embassy London, the British Foreign Office believes
that the USSR has reacted rather mildly so far to Iran's rejection of
the Soviet oil proposal because of: (a) Soviet unreadiness to make
a "bold move"' ; (b) the realization of Soviet military leaders that
cally rejeci:i the Soviet oil proposal, has now definitely aligned
itself with the democratic powers against the totalitarian bloc
and has placed itself in the same category as Greece and Turkey.
Qava m added that Iran is "conspicuously open to Soviet aggression,"
ar
W there is no longer any reason for the US to hesitate to aid in
strengthening fran's defenses or for Iran to hesitate to receive
such aid. Allen recommends that the US agree to accept Iranian
currency instead of dollars in payment for the $25 million worth
of military supplies which Iran is seeking from the US.
British comments on "mild" Soviet reaction to oil resection--
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6. IRAN: Allen believes Iran entitled to US aid--Prime Minister
Qavam has informed US Ambassador Allen That Iran, by categori-
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no other power will secure an oil concession close to the Soviet
border; and (c) the "interest of the US in Ir .n's sovereignty and
independence," (Soviet propaganda in Iran has already taken
the line that the action by the ma jlis, which prevents other powers
from obtaining oil concessions in Iran-Soviet border regions,
really represents a victory for the USSR.)
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GREECE.
AMAG` funds allotted -to .enlarging'. the Greek Army will be di?er ed
to the formation of a National Defense Corps, which can be more
quickly organized than new army units to combat. the guerrillas
CHINA
No significant new development.
100ument v.,
-
v- -.1ALyuv, in (;lass.
DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: TS
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DIjA PEG. 77/17Bi3
Date:
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EUIWPE
1. FRANCE: P lead es1~~ieyeFe Gaullsn igv~t1.
US Ambassador Caffery reports that two high-ranking leaders of
the.-Popular Republican Movement (MRP) have declared their belief
t -.t an ultimate De Gaulle Government is "inescapable." The
leaders stated that the MRP, though temporarily backing Ramadier,
-i&=111 try to help De Gaulle, with the aim of "reducing the showdown
to a minimum,"
L GREECE: Formation of National Defense Corp'
pproved by US --
The Department of State has approved the recommendation of AMAG
that $6 million be used for the formation of a Greek National Defense
Corps of 16,000 men instead of for a permanent increase of 109000
:hr the Greek Army,
FAR EAST
3. INDONESIA: US officers rreaorton conditions in Indonesia--US
Consul General Batavia reports the views of the US Navy and Army
Advisory Group that: (a) Republican leaders and Intelligentsia have
not been disheartened by Dutch military superiority; (b) the political
structure of the Republic appears sound with no rift evident between
political and military leaders; (c) the divergence of views of Dutch
and Republican leaders is so great that no agreement is possible
without third-party pressure; and (d) Republican leaders admit the
need of Dutch assistance but prefer that such aid be supervised by
a third Hower,
4s KOREA: > htist subversive activities in US Zone -Political
Adviser Jacobs reports that US authorities are nowfaced with con-
siderable subversive activities on the part of the extreme Rightists
in addition to the subversive tactics of the Leftists in South Korea,
Jacobs predicts that Rhee Syngman, leading Rightist, will refuse to
accept any UN proposal which involves UN-supervised elections
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since such supervision would impair his chances of victory. Jacobs
adds that Rhee is determined to establish himself as head of a South
Corean Government under US protection, regardless of the effect
of such a move on Korean unification,
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CRITICAL SITUATIONS
CHINA
No 'signaific nt new development.
Document No. O J
NO CHANGE in Class. [I
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Class. CHANGED TO: TS S C
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: R,G. 7777 1763 p~ y~J
Date: By:
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ET
GENERAL
. US Vosition C04peMpKBevin-49_forza conversations--In reply to a
)3ritish inquiry regarc:ng US views on the forthcoming Bevin-Sforza
conversations In London, the Department of State has indicated to
UN Embassy Washington that the US hopes that: (a) Bevin will stress
the firm intention of the UK to support fully the rehabilitation efforts
of the present Italian Government and of moderate democratic groups
in Italy; (b) Bevin will indicate that the joint UK-US policy of firm-
ness toward Yugoslavia will be continued to insure a truly independ-
ent Free Territory of Trieste: and (c) the UK will return to Italy
the entire UK share of the It .Haan Fleet,
New Soviet Ambassador to US reported Far Eastern a ert--US
Embassy Moscow has been informe that Alexander Panyushkin,
new Soviet Ambassador to the US, Is "high in Communist Party
circles,'" being a full member of the Party Control Commission
and a member of the Party's Central Committee, During his tenure
as Ambassador to China from 1939 to 1944, Pany ushkin is reported
to have enjoyed direct access to Stalin and to have had intimate
contacts with the Chinese Communists. Following his recall from
China, Panyusbkin served as special adviser to the Soviet Foreign
Office on Far Eastern Affairs.
(CIA Comment: Panyushkin's appointment as Ambassador
to the US probably reflects increasing Kremlin concern over Far
t
A epa esen
atjo In future discussions concerning China, Korea, and
Japan.)
3. Re-Posed Soviet-insaired military operations in Gree a--US Charge
Horner in Sofia reports that, according to a reliable informant the
Soviet "master plan'' at present anticipates the initiation of military
operations against Greece by its northern neighbors on or about
15 December. According to source, the wife of Premier Dimitrov's
secretary indiscreetly told members of her family that Dirnitrov
had written from Czechoslovakia describing Soviet intentions, She
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stated that the Soviet internal situation is so "restive" that the
Soviet people must be distracted by a military offensive.
(CIA Comment: Although there have been numerous uncon-
firmed reports of increased movements of troops and arms in Yugo-
slavia and Bulgaria, such reports probably suggest intensified
covert military aid rather than overt operations by the Satellites.
CIA discounts the above report for the following reasons: (a) it
is improbable that Dimitrov would write concerning plans of this
nature in a letter or that any precise information would be trans -
mitted to the secretary's wife; (b) the reason given by source for
such Soviet,action is untenable; (c) the USSR is committed by the
peace treaty to withdraw its troops from Bulgaria by 15 December
and will probably not sanction overt military operations at a time
when world attention will be focused on Soviet compliance with this
treaty provision; and (d) it is still believed that the USSR. is not
ready to risk precipitating a war with the West.)
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AL
CRI'T'ICAL SITUATIONS
EUROPEAN RECOVERY
No significant new development.
GRE aaCE
No significant new development.
CHINA
No significant new development.
08608M-9
5,0
Document ivo.
NO CHANGE in Class. [].
fl DECLASSIFIED
Class. C. ANC D TO: TS S C)
DDA Liemo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA ?G. 7711763
Date: 1 O APR' 1978 By:~
p q
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Nk"
GENERA L
1. Increased Rumanian articieation in Greece f . ht!n eVected--TJS
Military and Naval Naval Attaches Bucharest have been informed by a
``cor&sistently" reliable source that over 200 Rumanian technicians
have left to become military and civilian officials at General
Markos' Communist headquarters in Greece. Source expects a
considerable increase in this movement following the conclusion
of "Soviet-Rumanian" friendship week on 7 November. The Atta-
ches believe that the "terrific build-up of propaganda" in the Ru-
manian press is preparing the public for participation of Rumanians
in the Greek struggle, "even to the point of open involvement."
2. US asked King Paul to give asylum to Rumanian roval family--
King Paul of Greece has expressed to US Charge Keeley in Athens
his anxiety concerning King Michael of Rumania and Paul's sister,
the Queen Mother. According to Paul, both Michael and Helen be-
lieve that they are open to such dangers as liquidation by poison,
arrest, or exile. Paul asked whether the US Legation in Bucharest
could grant asylum to the royal family in the event of imminent ac-
tion against the family by the Rumanian Government.
EUROPE
3. FRANCE: DeGaulle believed not seeking office now--US Ambas-
sador Caffery repot his opinion that, despite General de Gaulle's
27 October press statement, DeGaulle does not desire to enter the
Government now because: (a) he believes that during the next four
or five months the French Government will "have a rough time,"'
even with UXS aid; (b) DeGaulle knows. that he does not now have even
a simple majority in the Assembly; and (c) DeGaulle -wants to be
able to say to the French during the winter when the going is bad,
"You did not follow my advice and see where you are now."
T
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4. FRENCH INDOCHINA: French $mpl iJ~ ap)Tro .es sue--US
Embassy Paris has learned from the Chinese Embassy that French
officials in Paris have implied that the US had approved the fall
military offensive in Indochina. According to the Chinese Embassy,
French Foreign Office officials reasoned that the Dutch would not
have dared to undertake military operations in Indonesia without
US assurances of non-opposition and that, consequently, the US
would take the same attitude toward French operations in Indochina.
THE E AMERICAS
a. MEXICO: Failure of foot -t nd-mcuth disease campaign--US mem-
bers of the Joint Commission for the eradication of the foot-and-mouth
disease in Mexico have informed Ambassador Thurston that they have
`"reluctantly but definitely1 ' reached the conclusion that the eradication
campaign cannot succeed and are recommending to US Department
of Agriculture a new plan for containment and vaccination. Ambas-
sador Thurston recommends that no "abrupt or tactless unilateral
action be taken by the US" and that, if a new course is adopted,
President Aleman be permitted to take the initiative, if that is
feasible.
JET
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CRITICAL. SIT UA.TIONS~
EUROPEAN RECOVERY
No significant new development.
.GREECE
AMAG `Chief.griswold urges that $15 million of Foreign Relief
funds be'rnade available for Greek refugees in northern Greece
(see item 6).
519
CHINA.
The.USSR has reportedly reminded the Chinese National Govern-
ment that unilateral Chinese action on Japanese peace negotiations
would violate the 1945 8io.o-Soviet Treaty of Friendship (see
item 1).
Document No. C) Z.~
47 27 0011941
~CbIVFlont
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(] DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO:
[]
TS
S
Auth :
Date:
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
DDA RIG. 77 l7v'3
By:
U d'-3
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GENERAL
1. Soviet pressure on China concerns Japanese peace treaty--US
F na s dor S ant reports t i , according to the Chinese to-2,
the Soviet Embassy Nanking has addressed a communication to the
Chinese Foreign Office which: (a) reminds China of its obligation
(under the Sino-Soviet Treat; of 1945) not to conclude a separate
peace with-Japan; (b) warns that if China ignores this reminder
and proceeds without the USSR, the Soviets will "take such steps
as deemed necessary"; and (c) requests that the Soviet commu-
nication be presented to the Generalissimo.
(CIA Comment: Chinese participation in Japanese peace
negotiations without Soviet consent could be interpreted as a viola-
tion of the Sino-Soviet Treaty and, as such, would offer the USSR
a legal basis for abrogation of the Treaty. Since the Treaty stipu-
lates that the USSR shall respect Chinese sovereignty and shall
render support and military aid to the Chinese National Govern-
ment to the exclusion of the Chinese Communists, CIA believes
that China would risk its abrogation only if assured of substantial
US aid and support.)
2, Norwegian Foreign Minister critical of US policy in UN--Foreign
irster Lange, iii o tae o-rweg n e egat on a-MGA, has
told US Embassy Oslo that he is extremely pessimistic concerning
the growing antagonism between the US and the USSR and is con-
vinced that a "complete paralysis" of international life is approach-
ing unless the two powers can reach some basis for agreement on
major issues.
Lange, whom the Embassy regards as "entirely western-
minded and friendly to the US," considers that the US delegates
gave the impression that they had arrived at the UN meetings with
their patience already exhausted. Lange felt that the US was "try-
ing to drive the Russians out of UN," but he was convinced from a
conversation with Gromyko that the USSR would not forsake such a
valuable "propaganda instrument." He also expressed the opinion
that US intransigence against acceptance' of the Ukraine for the
Security Council stiffened Soviet antagonism and was bad tactics
from the American point of view.
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Jff SECRO.
3. Top Balkan leaders reported meetfngin Rumania,--US Military and
avval Attaches vBucharest report that top Balkan leaders are currently
yeeting in western Rumania. The Attaches state that the presence
of Tito, Premier Groza of Rumania, and leading Rumanian Comnu-
1sts is confirmed, and that unconfirmed information indicates the
presence of Premier Dinnyes of Hungary and Premier Dimitrov of
Bulgaria.
(CIA Comment: Many conflicting rumors have been received
concerning an imminent conference of top Balkan officials. The
purpose of such a meeting presumably would be to plan for further
Soviet consolidation of the Balkan states. CIA does not believe that
the announcement of the much-discussed Balkan Federation will be
made at this time.)
EUROPE
4. FRANCE: Bidault believes De Gaulle's return inevitable--US Ambas
:ador Caffery quotes Foreign Minister Bidault as believing that
General de Gaulle's return is inevitable. Bidault stated that he would
be willing to work with De Gaulle "if he is reasonable." Bidault indi-
cated that meanwhile he will do his utmost to keep Ramadier in power
but doubts that the Government will last long.
Caffery reports also that a high official of the Interior Ministry
has expressed the hope that the present Government will continue at
least "four or five months" because Do Gaulle "still lacks anti-Com-
munist trade unionist support" which he will need when the showdown
with the Communists occurs.
5. GERMANY: Murphy recommends public statement of US2olicy--US
Political Representative Murphy in Berlin recommends that prior
to the London meeting of the CFM a public statement be made on the
US position regarding Germany. Murphy believes that the German
internal situation requires a US effort to offset the wholesale Soviet
attempt to swing German public opinion against the US. He warns
that if the US remains silent and "goes into the London meeting cold,
we can expect the USSR to take full advantage."
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6., GREECE: Seriousness of refugee problem in northern area--AMAG
Chief Griswold re orts that in nort ern Gree6ii0,000 people
forcibly evacuated from their villages are now entirely dependent
on public financing for their basic needs. Griswold states that the
number of these refugees is increasing by 30,000 monthly, Griswold
urges that to aid the refugees an additional $15 million be made
available from the funds of the US Foreign Relief Program because:
(a) the Greek Government is unable to provide adequate relief funds;
and (b) failure to provide relief for the refugees "will not only cause
human disaster but will also have series ideological effects.
TO
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EUROPE
25X1X
fo FRANCE: Reported views of De Gaulle-.-US Emb.ssy Paris quotes
a source close to De Gaulle as say ng that the latter is in no hurry
to precipitate a showdown and feels that his group will gain by post-
monement of such a development. Source also "believes" that, if
the Ramadier Government should fall, De Gaulle would riot consent
to form a government unless certain conditions were fulfilled. The
principal conditions, according to source, would be that the Assembly
approve: (a) a program for constitutional revision which would be
submitted to popular referendum along with a proposal for the disso-
lution of the Assembly and new elections; and (b) "Mull powers to
De Gaulle for a specified period,
Source added that it would be vitally important for Dc Gaulle
to receive substantial financial aid from the US during the first
three months following his return to power. This three month
period, source said, would be needed to restore coinfide: nce and
effect necessary reforms.;
`~` lso has been informed
~ t De Gaulle, who has prevrous v shown little
~o in or uznr e ?s .an x g of economic matters, has recently been
receiving advice from a number oti outstanding financiers and econo-
mists. This source expressed h1u self as confident that. if De Gaulle
came to power, he would adhere to the financial reform. - rogram
now being drafted by the Commxstteo of Exports,
THE C.I.A. HAS NO OBJECTION
TO THE DECLASSIFICATION OF
THIS DOCUMENT.
No.
25X1
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CRITICAL SITUATIONS
EUROPEAN RECOVERY
In further efforts to prevent economic colla se$the UK has stopped
all US tobacco Imports, has made plans to. reduce, further the. food
ration, and has slashed all capital expenditures.
GREECE
No significant new development.
CHINA
Recent statements by the Chinese Foreign. Minister confirm earlier
indications that the National Government's fear of an open conflict
with the USSR is a controlling factor in China's attitude toward the
Japanese peace treaty (see item 1).
t 0 1
Document No. l/
OF
NO CHANGE in Class.
E] DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: TS S C
DDA Menio, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77/1763
Date 1 0 APR By:
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GENERAL
1. Chinese attitude toward a Hess peace treatv--Acting Secretary
Lovett has advised US Embassy Nanking that Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang has made the following remarks pertaining to the
Japanese peace treaty: (a) the Chinese proposal for use in the
peace conference of the voting procedure and membership employed
In the Far Eastern Commission will be referred to the Kremlin by
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Vishinsky; (b) China is determined
to adopt a ffrrn attitude toward the Chinese Communists but will
avoid action which might provoke the USSR; (c) one central aim of
current Chinese foreign policy is the re-establishment of National
Government control over Manchuria; and (d) if the US and UK ac-
cept the Chinese proposal but the USSR refuses, China will have to
c?jmi der the possibility of proceeding without the USSR despite the
Sino-Soviet Treaty of 1945.
(CIA Comment: These remarks by Wang support other re-
cent indications that)unless it is assured of substantial US assistance,
the Chinese Government will probably find it necessary to adhere to
tzhe Sino-Soviet Treaty of 1945 which bars both parties from under-
to-king separate negotiations with japan.)
19d a s gGreek guq;rrillas--US Minister
Chapin in Budapest has learned from a ""highly reliable authority"
that, according to an ""unimpeachable"" source, the Soviet Air Force
has been using the Szekesfehervar airfield (about 40 miles southwest
of Budapest) as a base for bombing expeditions to Greece.
(CIA Comment: Although some 200 Soviet planes recently
have been observed at the Szekesfehervar field, no such operations
have been reported by Greek sources. Moreover, it is considered ex-
tremely unlikely that the USSR would at present engage in such overt
participation in the Greek civil war.)
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EUROPE
3. SPAIN: Official hopes for changed US policy--US Charge Culbert-
son reports that a~highh official of the Spanish Foreign Office has
appealed to him in the hope that the US can make some modification
of policy toward Spain. The official pointed out that although there
could be no question of Spain ?s eventual position in the event of war,
Spain could not oppose the USSR because of an inadequately equipped
army and an almost complete lack of airdrome facilities. He added
that because of the inadequate facilities, the Western Powers would
be prevented from sending in air forces and airborne troops.
FAR EAST
4. INDONESIA: e u c will meet Three _Power Committee--US Con-
sul General Batavia reports that Republican Vice Prime Minister
Gani has announced his Governments willingness to cooperate with
the UN Three Power Committee for Good Offices. Gani specified,
however, that discussions be held outside Dutch-controlled territory.
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CRITICAL SITUATIONS
In an attempt to enable the French Government to make rapid de
'
cisions in
dealing`~vith expected economic and political rises,
Premier tamaahei
The guerrillas have returned to the offensive in Greece after a
period. of comparative quiet during which they regrouped. A strong
attack by 3,000 guerrillas on the key town of Metsovo threatens the
Government's east-west line of communication in central Greece.
CHINA
The importance which the Chinese National Government attaches to
Manchuria is indicated by the Chinese Foreign Minister's recent
statement to Secretary Marshall that re-establishment of Govern-
ment control over Manchuria is "one central aim" of China's
present foreign policy.
l ocument No. 0 `
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T10 CHANGE in Class.
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Class. CHANGED TO: TS S
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: D RAG. 7711763
Date: APR 1978 By
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IUCII~F~T
EUROPE
1. FRANCE: A che's o .lma ?`? of t ~~~r itat --US Military
Attache Paris transmits the following comments on his 20 October
interview (see Daily Summary of 22 October, item 2) with General
Revers and Colonel Fourcault: (a) Fourcault was unable to explain,
except in general terms, his reasons for believing that war was
inevitable within 2 months to 5 years, the basis on which he and
Revers justified the request for US military aid and joint staff talks;
(b) the French officers did not explain how the French, in view of
the current manpower shortage, could raise one million men for
the 20 to 40 divisions they wished to arm; and (c) because of Revers'
position as "an active leader of current resistance mobilization
efi:orts," it is highly probable that a US commitment for military
aid would be at least partially diverted for use by resistance forces.
2. UK: Defense Minister discloses sfor N ?vU--UK Minister of
Defense Alexander has told US Naval Attache London that recent
press reports of an impending drastic reduction in the Royal Navy
were the result of a "Tory leak." Alexander added that: (a) there
will be a temporary lay-up of a number of combatant ships while the
Navy is reorganizing its manpower (including a reduction in overall
strength from 188,000 to 147,000 by 31 March 1948); (b) the Mediter-
ranean Fleet will be maintained at its present strength; and (c) by
next summer, the Horne Fleet will comprise 1 battleship, 1 aircraft
carrier, 3 heavy crusers, 18 destroyers, and 20 submarines, in
addition to a training squadron. According to Alexander, the UK
will probably retain 'io ships in the Pacific but will depend on
Australia to "show the flag where necessary."
3. POLAND: ra Polish Communists rgportedhigh--US Ambas-
sador Griffis has bee;~.i informed by "independent and usually well-
informed sources" that Polish Communist leaders have been in high
spirits since the signing of the Comitorm agreement. Griffis com-
ments that these reports, if true, may indicate that this Communist
optimism results either from the resumption of the Communist
offensive or from the receipt of special information, perhaps con-
cerning Soviet armed strength or strategy.
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(CIA Comment: It is unlikely that the Soviets have given
Polish Communists any significant strategic information. The mere
establishment of the Cominform has bolstered Communist morale
because of its indication of firm Soviet support of the satellite Com-
munist parties. On the other hand, Polish Communists are also
reportedly concerned over possible adverse local reaction to the
Cominform announcement.)
NEAR EAST-AFRICA
4. PALESTINE: ash onposition to partition--US Consul General
Jerusalem reports that over a third ofeLionist Jews in Palestine
(in addition to a substantial number of non-Zionist Jews) oppose the
partition plan now being considered by the UN General Assembly.
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515
CRITICAL SITUATIONS
EUROPEAN RECOVERY
As ameans of reducing the political effect of any future,.Sovietoffer
of wheat' to. Italy, Ambassador Dunn suggests, that the US publicly
emphasize.that the USSR, despite its reportedly good harvest, has
given 'no assurances to needy countries that they can count upon
Soviet aid (see item 1).
GREECE
There are indications of a crisis in the Greek Socialist Party on the
issue of continuing cooperation with the Communists, immediately
precipitated by disillusionment over the execution of Petkov. The
small but important Socialist Party will probably break with the
Communists because of the implications of the Petkov execution
and because of a suspected Communist program for nationwide
sabotage.
CHINA
No significant new development.
Document No.
An-
VO CHANGE in Class. [l
'] DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: TS S C
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DMA R7G. 77/1763
bate: 1 0 APR 1978 BBy:
T
as
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CONFID
GENERAL
1. Dunn urges Soviet wheat for I and France--US Ambassador Dunn
at Rome recommends that the US immediately begin a publicity cam-
paign to emphasize that although the USSR reportedly has a good
harvest, the Soviet Union has given needy countries no assurance that
they can count on Soviet assistance. Dunn believes that if public
opinion were directed toward the view that the USSR has exportable
wheat and.a moral responsibility to supply it, the US might not only
reduce Soviet political gain& from any wheat offer made by the USSR
to Italy but could also take credit for having influenced such Soviet
action. Dunn also believes that the US should encourage the USSR
to pour wheat into world trade channels and that the US should' pro-
vide ships and dollars for moving such wheat to France and Italy.
(CIA Comment: A recent Soviet official announcement re-
ports that this year's Soviet grain crop exceeds that of last year
by 58.7%. CIA considers this claim greatly exaggerated and esti-
mates that the amount of grain harvested and stored this year is
about 20% above that of last year. If the estimate of 20% is accurate,
the USSR now has approximately 6 million metric tons in excess of
domestic consumption requirements. Because of limited transporta-
tion and storage facilities, however, it is believed that only about
2 million tons of this surplus could be exported to Western Europe.)
EUROPE
2. FRANCE: Dint US-French staff talks suggested--Following an inter-
View with General Revers, French ChteUo Sta.f , and Colonel Fourcault,
deputy director of. French secret intelligence, the US Military Attache
Parts reports General Revers' views that: (a) if the US were to
furnish military equipment adequate for a minimum of 20 divisions
or for a maximum of 40, a million Frenchmen under 30 could be
guaranteed to fill the divisions; (b) the force thus provided would be
capable of holding a Soviet advance long enough to secure French
port areas and landing beaches for US troops if needed; (c) discussions
in Washington between the US joint Chiefs of staff and suitable senior
French military personnel for working out closely coordinated military
plans are both essential and urgent; and (d) "the threat of war could
C
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CRET
/
Rek N A
ral
be almost certainly eliminated" if the USSR were faced by early
spring with a carefully-planned and well-coordinated US,-UK-French
military program. The Military Attache adds that he understands
that the interview had been cleared by Revers with the Minister of
War and Premier Rarnadier.
3. HUNGARY: Political leader comments on war scare--Istvan
l3arankovics, president of Hungary's largest opposition party, has
told US Minister Chapin of the growing conviction among Hungarian
non-Communists that war between the US and the USSR is not only
inevitable but imminent. Barankovics believes that the higher
Catholic clergy are encouraging war expectancy and that the tone
of the Voice of America broadcasts is "too bellicose." To counter-
act this war psychosis, Barankovics: (a) said his party will attempt
to persuade the Vatican to exercise a moderating influence on the
Catholic clergy in Hungary; and (b) suggested that the US broad-
casts, in addition to answering belligerent Soviet press attacks, re-
assure southeastern Europe as to US desires for continued peace.
4. RUMANIA: Governmental campaign against National Liberal Party--
According to a ry an ava ac es, overnmen
has opened its drive for abolishing the National Liberal Party. (With
the elimination of Maniu's National Peasant Party, the National
Liberals constitute the chief remaining obstacle to the establish-
ment of a single-party system.) The Attaches believe that the
National Liberal Party will be abolished during the next few weeks.
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A T.' IONS
5..? ,Aav F E COQ .RY
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THE C.I.A. HAS NO OBJECTION
TO THE DECLASSIFICATION OF
THIS DOCUMENT.
NO. i Pi' 19
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Cfi,1,
EUROPE
I. FRANCE: Ramadier believed weakened by elections--US Ambas-
sador Caffery expresses the view that the results of the recent
elections raise a serious question regarding the position of the
present Ramadier coalition government. Caffery believes that the
success of the De Gaulle group, combined with the defeat of the
Catholic Popular Republicans, tends to upset the present equilib-
rium in the French legislature.
FAR EAST
2. KOREA: Soviet acceptance of proposal for recess --Political
adviser Jacobs reports that the e De ega on as accepted
the US proposal for a recess of the Joint Commission. Jacobs
points out that General Shtikov, Chairman of the Soviet Delega-
tion, has described the US action as a proposal for "an interrup-
tion of the work" of the Commission but that Shtikov has failed
to make clear whether the USSR considers the present move a-
"recess" or an "adjournment."
(CIA Comment: The USSR will probably continue to affirm
tine legal existence of the joint Commission in order to maintain
that the Commission is the proper instrument for implementing
the Moscow Decision. In this way, the USSR will be able to justify
its probable boycott of any UN decision in support of the US draft
resolution calling for zonal elections to establish a unified gov-
ernment.)
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f'o
E$NFIENTIAI,
CRITICAL SITUATIONS
t
EUROPEAN RECOVERY
Premier Spaak of Belgium believes that France is fundamentally
in a sounder position than the UK and that given a year of good
crops and a strong Government, the French will make a fairly
early economic recovery (see item 1).
GREECE
The Greek Army may have to withdraw front. E s:ern Thrace
unless it takes immediate offensive action against the guerrillas
(see item 4).
CHINA
A reportedly imminent Nationalist ccmaterof!er~.-sive in Manchuria
would play into the hands of the Chinese Con munists by placing
the Nationalists in positions more vuh crab to Corn monist
attack (see item 5).
Document No. (, !
NO CHANGE in Class. 0
r DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHANGED TO: TS S
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Bluth: DDA REG. 77/1763
- 1 - )atd4 ARP J978 Bp: -
B9N"'IidL
513
ao
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GENERAL
S.ak believes French condition better than British--US Ambassador
kirk reports from Brussels hiatremie~paak believes that France
. fundamentally in a sounder position than the UK. Spaak points out
that French agricultural resources were basically untouched by the
war and that one year of good crops would greatly alleviate the food
problem. He believes that France's recovery depends on its finding
political leadership capable of carrying out drastic financial reforms,
balancing the budget, restoring confidence, and preserving order.
Spaak considers that both Ramadier and Bidault are weak and that
De Gaulle will ultimately return to power. Spaak thinks that the
French may make a fairly early recovery, if given a stronger govern-
ment, but that the UK is in a more serious condition because of the
exhaustion of its capital resources and its outworn economic system.
2. Tito reported about to conclude Yu oslav-Rumanian assistance pact--
TS mbass`aai_'? c Em el in uc es a, een re a ly informed
that Marshal Tito is expected in Bucharest on 25 October, probably
to conclude the Rumanian Yugoslav mutual assistance pact drawn
up last June.
EUROPE
FRANCE: Communists may seek immediate showdown with De Gaulle--
According s ery, 25X1 X
the Communists may 25X1X
Bring aBout a 61na -11 s owdown with be Gaulle immediately,
because their chances of success are greater now than they would be
when De Gaulle's organization is more firmly established. Caffery's
sources believe also that the Communists will increase the tempo of
their attacks on the Government in order to cause Ramadier's fall
and thus induce De Gaulle to make a "premature" attempt to return
to power. The Communists believe they can defeat such an attempt
by general strikes, mass' demonstrations of force, disorder, and
intimidation.
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ltAUr.wfa..w. a.
4. GREECE: Seriousness of military situation emphasized--US Mili-
tary Attache thens reports at Lieutenant o one M ler (US
member of the now-defunct UN Sub-Commission in Greece) and
Congressmen Teague and Jackson are "deeply disturbed" by the
military situation in northern Greece. Miller informed the MA
that guerrilla action had made rail and road communication in
Thrace and Macedonia almost impossible. Miller expressed the
opinion that unless the Greek Government forces take the offensive
immediately, they will very soon be unable to do so and may have
to withdraw from Eastern Thrace. Miller reiterated his "urgent
plea" that US tactical officers be made available for giving opera-
tional advice to the Greek Army.
FAR EAST
5. CHINA: Nationalists may start counteroffensive in Manchuria?
According to US Consul General Mukden, local reports ndicate
that the Chinese National Government is contemplating a counter-
os 7ensive in Manchuria. The Consul General comments that such
an offensive might fall in with Chinese Communist plans by drawing
Nationalist troops away from present strong points so that small
moving units can be attacked.
3. INDONESIA: Enacted Dutch attitude toward UN Commission--
US Military Observers In- ova a eve a e ether iands Gov`ern-
ment will ignore any action by the Three Power Commission for
Good Offices which runs counter to the present Dutch concept of
a United States of Indonesia.
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situation with fo2r?essmen-..U Embassy
London reports that Foreii5i ore 3e in, inan interview with
US Congressmen Taber, W lgglesworth, Cannon, and Dirksen, stated
his belief that the USSR s objectives are the "strategic aims of
Czarist Russia" plus the aim of world-wide revolution motivated
by Communistic "religious fervor." Soviet immediate aims, accord-
ing to Bevin, are to gain control of the Middle East and the Mediter-
ranean through Iran and Greece and to penetrate western Europe
through Austria. Bevin added that, though the danger exists that
constant USSR pressure to extend its influence might set off a conflict,
he feels that war is not imminent because. the USSR is not pr?e }awed
fo.Y.' it.Bevin advocated "firmness annd a display of force" to stop
the USSR.
b reply '~o a request for comment on Palestine, he Foreign
Secretary avoided any statement of British intentions if the UNGA
accepts the UNSCOP report. He stated that many of the Jews attempt-
ing to go into Palestine as illegal immigrants vYere not refugees at
all, but "healtlp r young men who had been indoctrinated in the Com-
nru gist school.
2. ? l'3i;SR r