NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 29 JUNE 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010059-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 59
• Publication Date: June 29, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF RE PORTS. AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
REF
14? CIA.
11 RAR y
WORKING PAPER
NOTICE: This document is a working paper, NOT
an official CIA issuance, and has not necessarily
been coordinated with other ORE producing compo-
nents. It represents current thinking by one
group of specialists in CIA, and is designed for
use by others engaged on similar or overlapping
studies. The opinions expressed herein may be
revised before final and official publication. It
is intended solely for the information of the
addressee and not for further dissemination.
Copy for:
Document No.;
NO CHANGE in Class. 0 4
te.pECLASSIFIED
lass. CHANGED TO: TS S CI
I DOA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: _pri REQ. 77
Date: : 04i
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
ThTTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
For Week Ending
29 June 1940
GREECE
\r0 if No. 25
,
Diomedes Succeeds to Premiership: The scheduled swearing-in of the 1
74-year-old Alexander Diomedes as the new Prime Minister of Greece, along;
with the old cabinet, on 30 June will bring a halt to the six-day government i
crisis resulting from Sophoulis's death. Tsaldaris, leader of the plurality 1
(37%) Populist Party, had been frustrated in his initial attempts to form -,
a cabinet by the refusal of the second-ranking Liberal Party to serve .
under him. Important in breaking the political deadlock that might soon
have called for strong measures was the combined urging of King Paul
? and the British and US ambassanors.
Diomedes is a respected financier and a Liberal without strong party
coloring who will be able temporarily to preserve the old coalition cabinet,
but his task will soon become much more difficult because of his relative
inexperience in politics and his lack of a stabilizing influence comparable
to that of Sophoulis. Without constant outside urging, there appears to be
no one in the cabinet or in Parliament possessing the required ability
to command approval and restrain political factionalism. For the time
being, however, a slight improvement in the functioning of the cabinet may ;
actually occur, since certain delays in important business had been occasioned
in recent weeks by the growing infirmity of Sophoulis and his frequent
refusal to delegate power.
Otherwise the Greek Government will continue its course much as
before. The military command is firmly in the hands of General Papagos,
and has now been freed to a remarkable degree from demoralizing political
influence. The day-to-day run of urgent economic and political matters ,
coming up before the government is handled almost exclusively by the
streamlined Cabinet Coordination Council, in close cooperation with
British and American advisors. For the time being, Parliament has
actually lost much of its normal significance, except as a sounding board
for public opinion, and largely for this reason has recently given the
appearance of lethargy. If under these circumstances the now intensified
'
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SpeCT
2.
party and personal rivalries were to result in a new and more prolong-
ed cabinet crisis, the King-might be tempted to take matters into his
own hands for the sake of the war effort.
TURKEY
Opposition anger rises: Although general elections axe not due to be
held until next year, the question of how the balloting will be conducted
is already the subject of heated discussion among Turkey's political
leaders. The government's failure to present an electoral reform bill
to the National Assembly, which has just adjourned until November,
has become a sore point with the opposition leaders; the recent meeting
of the opposition Democratic Party was reportedly so bitter on the
subject as to evoke a denunciation of their attitude by Prime Minister
GanaRay. Political tempers are likely to remain high during the months
to come.
The principal opposition demand is that the judiciary supervise the
electoral process (particularly with respect to the secret casting and
the open counting of votes) to prevent repetition of the governmental
rigging of the vote which almost certainly took place last time, in 1946.
The Democrats feel, rightly or wrongly, that a fair election would put them
In power in place of the perennially ruling People's Republican Party,
and some of the more inflammable (and cynical) members of the
opposition have begun to hint dangerously at revolt. Thus far, the
government has ended the issue; although CanaHay recently made a
half-promise to "persuade his colleagues" to accept electoral reform,
there is no doubt that many members of his party strenuously oppose
any such concession, which they blow full well might not only end their
own political careers but also the easy livelihoods with which their
friends and relatives have been provided. Perhaps the recent flareup
of recriminations may persuade the diehards that the opposition is
really in earnest this time and that some further relaxation of the
government party ls tight control over elections might be judicious.
PALESTINE
Palestine Outlook: Although the outlook for a general Arab-Israeli
peace settlement has shown so little improvement that the Palestine
Conciliation Commission (PCC) has decided upon a several week s'
sseST
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3.
?
recess In the Lausanne Conference negotiations, some limited progress
has been made toward local stabilization in Palestine itself. In the disputed
Mishrnar hay Yarden region just west of the Syrian-Palestinian border,
both Syria and Israel have indicated their willingness to accept, as a
basis for armistice discussions, Acting Mediator Bunche's proposal
that Syrian troops withdraw to the border and that the area between the
two armies be demilitarized. Further agreement at present, however,
is obstructed by the fact that the Israelis insist upon their right to
exercise civil authority over the entire demilitarized region whereas
the Syrians demand UN supervision of the area they would vacate and
the right of Arab civilians to return thereto. If the Israelis, who regard
all territory on the Palestine side of the international border as theirs,
refuse to yield in their demand, further armistice negotiations may
well prove impossible.
The high tension prevailing in Jerusalem two weeks ago has
diminished--for the moment, at least. The Mixed Armistice Commission
(MAC) may be able to provide a temporary settlement of the dispute
over the Government Rouse region by dividing the area between Jordan
and Israel. Also, Jordan has given its approval to the US suggestion
that the Israel-Jordan Special Committee, which was established by
the armistice and which accomplished almost nothing, be abolished
and its functions transferred to the UN-chaired MAC. Israel, however,
has not yet approved the change, presumably because the Israelis are
willing to refer to MAC only special questions, omitting the larger
problems of territorial changes ir. Jerusalem. The failure of the two
parties to agree even on this procedural matter underscores one
difficulty the Arabs and Israelis face generally in trying to reach a
settlement of the basic issues. (Joint product of G/10 and NE/A.)
IRAN
Crisis Brewing: While the Shah has been devoting his energies to
building up his military establishment, dissatisfaction and unrest have
been increasing among the people of Iran. Riots, provoked by local
bread shortages, have begun to crop out in the north, and Iranian merchants
and religious leaders are preparing to submit a petition directly to the
Shah demanding an end to 'politica and economic anarchy" and threatening
a general strike unless the government can remedy the situation at once.
These important groups are probably suffering from the current decline
?43E?rylitEhr
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of commercial activity in Iran, but they are also apparently using the
present situation as a protest against the concentration of power in the
hands of the Shah and the army. The Saed Government, despite its
failure to avert bread shortages, has made a relatively commendable
record during its seven months in office, and Saed himself, although
he admits that his government is under heavy attack, feels that he
can weather the storm by reshuffling his cabinet. The multiplicity
of economic problems facing the country, however, and the develop-
ment of opposition among influential groups as a result of the Shah's
preoccupation with military matters suggest that pious proposals and
cabinet shifts may not be enough. Unless some concrete action is
undertaken to improve the situation, the present government may fall.
Inasmuch as the candidates for the premiership who would have the
Shah's approval have proved themselves less capable than Saed, the
Shah may find himself faced with a crucial internal situation.
INDIA -PAKISTAN
India stands pat: The UN Commission for India and Pakistan appears
to have exhausted all possibility of obtaining a Kashmir truce agreement
through its own efforts. In response to the Commission's latest over-
tures, India has once again insisted on the right to occupy northern
Kashmir and on its own formula for withdrawing the bulk of the
Indian forces from Kashmir; while a committee from UNCIP is now
in Karachi making a final attempt to find some basis for agreement,
there is no indication that Pakistan would accept India's terms,
which contravene the spirit if not the letter of the underlying
agreement proposed by UNCIP on 13 August 1948 and later accepted by
both governments. Although India apparently hoped that its latest
statement might be interpreted as an acceptance of UNCIP's truce terms,
thus placing the onus for the breakdown of negotiations on Pakistan, it
Is probable that the Commission will now declare that both sides have
rejected its terms and will urge the two governments to accept a truce
arbitrator. If such an appeal fails, the Commission can do nothing but
refer the whole matter back to the Security Council.
NOTED IN BRIEF
Price is not the only factor affecting the export market for Turkish
tobacco, Smoking is a habit in which the taste preferences formed by
the consumer have an important bearing on sales, and exports of the
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%%WHET
5.
aromatic Turkish blends have been limited up to now by the preference
of many Europeans for the milder Virginia types. What is happening
In the case of the British market, however, suggests that the scarcity
of dollars in Europe may slowly result in a re-education of the taste
of European palates: during World War I, the British lost their taste
for Turkish tobacco because there wasn't any for them to smoke.; after
World War IT, unable to get all the dollar exchange they wanted, the
British began to reappear as buyers of the Turkish product. If this
trend continues, it will be a fortunate one for Turkey: about one out
of every twelve members of the Turkish population is dependent upon
the noxious weed for an existence.
The Turks are represented in the security talks which have been takin
place in Tehran among Near and Middle Eastern leaders; as the most
powerful military nation in the area (with even more powerful friends),.
Turkey could hardly be excluded. The Turks, however, while not averse
to strengthening relations with their neighbors, are not in the least in-
terested in entering into any military pacts. Their price for the
assumption of any such obligation would continue to be the unequivocal
promise of Western support, which is not at present forthcoming.
Relations between Af hanistan and Pakistan have . :ain become critical
because of an incident of a fortnight ago, in which a Royal Pakistan
Air Force plane machine-gunned and bombed an assemblage of Afghan
tribesmen some 800 yards within Afghan territory. While Pakistan's
failure to provide a satisfactory explanation of the affair has undoubtedly
nettled the Afghan Government, the real importance of the incident is that
it has almost certainly aroused real resentment among many of the
border tribesmen, who have hitherto appeared only moderately responsive
to the anti-Pakistan agitation going on in Afghanistan. If the tribesmen's
current resentment should be aggravated by further propaganda from
Kabul or by other unfortunate incidents, their natural restiveness
and bellicosity might flare up in disturbances serious enough to involve
Afghanistan and Pakistan in armed conflict.
SVIE'r
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1
(
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6.
A series of mysterious explosions which took place in the Mezze citadel
near Damascus on the night of 25 June may have serious consequences
, for Syria. The brother of President Zaim has indicated that over three
million dollars worth of newly acquired French ammunition was destroyed,
while another source states flatly that the loss involved virtually all of
Syria's munitions reserves.
SECRET
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