NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 8 JUNE 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010056-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 56
• Publication Date: June 8, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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? NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WORKING PAPER
NOTICE: This, document is a working paper, NOT
an-To-Metal CIA issuance, and has not necessarily
been coordinated with other ORE producing compo-
nents. It represents current thinking by one
group of Specialists in CIA, and is designed for
use by others engaged on similar or overlapping
studies. The opinions expressed herein may be
revised before final and official publication.
R is intended solely for the information of the
addressee and not for furthcr dissemination.,
Copy for:
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Document No. t,
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4 DECLASSIFIED ?711
ilass. CHANGED TO: TS S 0
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77/1763
Date: 6. MAR 1974:
NO CHANGE in Class.
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
For Week Ending
8 June 1949
GREE CE
Vol. IV No, 22
Appeasement fears: Greek leaders are increasingly fearful that current
Soviet and guerrilla peace propaganda will succeed in stimulating strong
outside pressures for appeasement or that (despite US statements barring
dis zussion of the Greek question without Greek participation) big-power
talks might be forced by Soviet maneuvers in the CFM. While Greek
press and public opinion is in general wholeheartedly opposed to any
compromise based on the Communist peace proposals, the possibility
of appeasement has already had an effect within Greece. Commander
In Chief Papagos is reportedly encountering growing pressure against
the vigor with which he has prosecuted the anti-guerrilla campaign,
because of the high casualties which are inevitably involved. Meanwhile,
a number of opportunist politicians and fellow-travellers are gravitat-
ing toward the Paris CFM meetings to promote appeasement proposals
and to offer themselves for posts in an interim "reconciliation" govern-
ment; among them are two former Liberal cabinet ministers who are
generally considered men of integrity but who might prove useful to the
fellow-travelling element -- the pronounced Russophile Sofianopoulos
and General Plastiras, who has authoritarian tendencies. While appease-
ment pressures from fellow-travellers and opportunists within Greece
have not reached sizable proportions--neither Sofianopoulos nor Plastiras
has much of a following?such tendencies might be expected to mount
rapidly at the slightest sign that the US was considering either a relaxa-
tion of its support for Greece or a big-power deal.
Overatlpithodat: The record of the first month of Operation Rocket,
the Greek Army's current anti-guerrilla clearing campaign in central
Greece, indicates that vigorous guerrilla evasive tactics may effectively
delay successful execution of the plan. On one side of the ledger, the
Greek Army has thus far inflicted 1,600 guerrilla casualties. On the
other side of the ledger, however, the guerrillas have apparently succeeded
In diverting the government forces from their original plan by causing
the action to shift constantly and to spread, from the limited area originally
designated for Rocket, as far north as Mount Olympus and as far east
as the coastal mountains, Ossa and Pelion. Moreover, by one method or
SEeer
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another, the guerrillas have been able to maintain their total active
strength over central Greece as a whole at almost 3,500 --a net
drop of only about 500 for the month--and despite constant movement have
retained their general distribution of forces in the area. Greek Com-
mander in Chief Papag-os has indicated his concern over the situation
by an order of 18 May directing the redeployment of troops so that the
original plan, for either annihilating the guerrillas or driving them north-
ward out of the Rocket area, might be carried out.
TURKEY
Teas veto_seafch for Noalep Ark: The proposed search for what may
remain of Noah s Ark on Mount A ratrat will not now take place. The
Turkish Government has vetoed the expedition planned by US archeologists,
doubtless for the same reason it has not permitted US Air Attaches in
Turkey to fly airplanes about the comitry as they please. Since the
granting of such rights to nationals of a friendly power would make it
very difficult to refuse them to another, less friendly one, it is easier
to refuse them all and, in this particular instance, thus avert the possi-
bility of Soviet "explorers" investigating the Mount Ararat region and
learning what is--and, much more important--what is not there.
MAN
Gendarmerie merger: The Iranian Army's sudden assumption of control
over the gendarmerie last week, in accordance with a merger plan advanced
by the Shah and Chief of Staff Razmara, represents an important step
in the consolidation of the former's position as the most powerful politicial
figure in Iran. Under the merger plan, all of Iran's security forces will
now be under military control, although 4,000 men out of the gendarmerie's
total strength of about 25,030 will be nominally left under the Ministry
of Interior for the execution of civil functions. The immediate effect
will be to enhance the ability of army leaders to influence the coming
elections to the Majlis, although it is probable that the Shah and Razmara,
who have advocated such a move for many years, were primarily motivated
by long-nm considerations.
One significant aspect of the move is that it was made despite
developing opposition to the plan in the Mailis, which must formally
authorize the merger (after a six months trial period) before it can
become permanent, and against US counsel. Opposition may develop
SEettrr
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against consolidation of the merger, particularly in view of the suspicion
of many Iranians that Razmara might be manipulating the merger for his
own ends., Although Prime Minister Saed, the Minister of War, General
Ahmadi, and several other top political leaders, who have been cooperat-
ing closely with the Shah for the past four months, are reportedly opposed
to this grab for power, it is unlikely that they will suddenly risk royal
disfavor on the merger issue. Moreover, although the Shah might accede
to a modification of the present merger plan, his willingness to incur
both US and local disfavor indicates that there is little likelihood that he
will accept any major change in it.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
Problems in Pakistan: Considerable political opposition to Prime
Minister Linquat Ali Khan, even at the cabinet level, has recently
sprung up in Pakistan. Criticism of the government, which made notable
headway during Liaquat Ales absence at the Commonwealth Prime
Ministers' Conference during April, is in part attributable to religious
groups who object b Pakistads retention of its Commonwealth ties as
representing the continued subjection of Moslems to a Christian king.
Other significant dissident groups have also emerged, however, as is
illustrated by a recent outburst of criticism against Sir Francis Mudie,
the British governor of Wesl, Punjab, on the ground that he had failed to
act vigorously enough against the Indian-owned Civil and Military Gazette
of Lahore for aprovocative article on Kashmir. In these atta.cits, the
strongly anti-Indian and anti-British elements were assisted by a number
of the political fortune-hunters disgruntled over the honest government
measures taken by Sir Francis and by the sudden emergence of the
supposedly impotent Communist forces, which not only helped force the
suppression of the Civil and Military Gazette, which is strongly pro-
Western, but also brought about the banning of the anti-Soviet US motion
picture, "Iron Curtain. Prospective economic difficulties in East
Pakistan, where heavy rains during April and May destroyed a sizable
portion of the rice and jute crops for the second successive year, portend
additional political opposition to the government; West Pakistan will again
have to stand the burden of supplying and shipping food to the east, and
there is a possibility that either the rice surplus or transportation needs
may prove insufficient for the emergency. For the time being, the present
government appears likely to hold its own, mainly because no adequate
successor to Liaquat Ali is immediately available. In time, however, the
growth of dissident groups may lead to a new, and far less responsible
government.
S.E.colitere
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NOTED IN BRIEF
Intensified Greela_s.essure for _gai ht ree e is
foreshadowed by a 5 June statement of the Cyprus Ethnarchy inviting
Greek Cyprias to boycott all governmental receptions and ceremonies
and to have as little contact with authorities as possible. The Etianarchy,
an organization of local Greek Nationalist and Church elements, was
formed shortly before the May municipal elections as an anti-Communist
and pro-enosis action group; having demonstrated some of the benefits
of unity by obtaining slight Nationalist gains in the elections, the group
now seems determined to pursue a more active anti-British policy.
Turks won't nla7 any international football matches for a whileluntil
the government decides that react Inns to the recent unpleasantness in
Athens have simmered down. Actually, no very serious damage was
done and those Turks and Greeks who are less excitable than their younger
fellow-countrymen will not allow such incidents to interfere with their
good relations, however much they may dislike each other. Turkey
and Greece have far too many common interests to cherish and common
enemies to withstand.
The National Assembly acted quickly in passing the Armed Forces re-
organization bill. If as much alacrity is displayed in its implementation,
a very substantial tightening-up of the armed forces organization may
be expected soon.
Despite Premier Gunaltay's amicable gesture to the opposition, indicat-
ing that he might try to meet them more than halfway in reforming
electoral procedure, the opposition leaders have conspicuously abstained
from grasping the extended, ostensibly friendly hand. It might, of course,
go hard for the opposition at the next elections if the party now in power
forehandedly (and in advance of election day) enacted legislation removing
all justification for some of the conditions about which the opposition
most loudly complains,
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5.
The Cyrenaican declaration of independence has aroused bitterness and
resentment among Arab leaders in TripeMania and Egypt. Tripolitanian
leaders, who have always wanted a united independent Libya, fear that
such action on the part of the Cyrenaicans will preclude the achievement
of this aim at least temporarily, although the Tripolitanians will probably
now work toward an independence declaration of their own with a hope
fore eventual unity of all Libya. The Egyptians have accused the British
of creating a protectorate on Egypt's western frontier in the form of
"another kingdom of Jordan," and of partitioning a country whose three
territories are integral.
The dispute over the Syrian sondem held in Lebanon on a murder charge
has been settled by arbitration. A commission of Saudi Arabian and
Egyptian advisers ruled on 2 June that the Syrian soldiers should be
released and, by advance agreement, both countries accepted its terms
and Lebanon immediately released the soldiers to Syria for trial. Not
even the 31 May incursion into Lebanese territory by Syrian military
units (which quickly withdrew) upset Lebanese determination for an end
of conflict, and Zaimts explanation that it was all a mistake was readily
accepted. Having come off well in this encounter, Zaim can be expected
to take a firmer control of current economic negotiations between the
two countries, which may set the political thermometer to climbing once
more.
Iran has again raised the question of US economic assistance, this time
through formal presentation in Washington of a request for $500 million
immediately, to be used in restoring the Iranian economy to the 1941 level.
(A similar stress on the post-war rehabilitation theme was present
in Prime Minister Saeces previous request and in a recent statement
of the Shah asserting?without justification?that such economic assistance
had been promised Iran under the 1943 Tehran Declaration.) There is
much overlapping between the activities for which Iran wants direct
US aid and those d Iran's own Seven Year Plan for economic development.
Since Iran did not anticipate the necessity of foreign assistance for the
first year or two of the plan, apparently it is pressing for the US aid
because: (1) it would like to shift some funds from the Seven Year Plan
to military expenditures; and (2) it would like tangible evidence of US
support, similar to that being given to Greece and Turkey. Iran's
45.E.CatT
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relatively good financial position places it in a different category
from Greece and Turkey, but it is likely that aid will be available
through the International Bank and the Export-Import Bank. As a
means of demonstrating US interest in expediting economic developments
In Iran the US is considering the feasibility of several pilot projects
which could be undertaken as soon as funds are available under the
Point Four Program.
The denouement in Soviet Iranian consular relations has apparently
been reached. The Soviets have now confirmed their decision to close
down all their consulates In Iran and have asked the Iranian Government
to close its consulate in Baku, the only Iranian post outside the
Embassy in the Soviet Union. Some Soviet consulates have already
been reported in the process of dosing and the Tabriz Consul General
was scheduled to depart for the USSR late in May. Since the consulate
personnel are well acquainted with the conduct of Soviet subversive
activities in Iran, there may be a delay in closing the consulates in Iran
until the direction of these activities has been shifted to other hands or
the old personnel transferred to one of the numerous Soviet commerical
or cultural agencies in Iran.
A military court has sentenced eight key Tudeh Party leaders to death,
after a trial in absentia. This step, combined with the previous arrest
and conviction of 14 other prominent party members, constitutes a
severe blow to any Tudeh hopes of making a comeback in the relatively
near future. Although underground Tudeh activity will undoubtedly
continue, the eight men are unlikely to risk resumption of their party
work in Iran until circumstances change, and it will probably take a
considerable time for the party to reconstruct its top leadership.
mermt
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