NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 4 MAY 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 51
• Publication Date: May 4, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified and Approved
14,
For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
7
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND EST/MATES
? CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
? RAM; fg CIA Library
WORKING PAPER
NOTICE: This document is a working paper, NOT
an official CLA issuance,. and has not necessarily
been coordinated with other ORE producing compo-
nents. ? It represents current thAnking by one
group of specialists in CIA, and is designed. for .
use by others engaged .on similar or overlapping
studies,, The Opinions expressed herein may be
revised Wore final and official publication..
-It is intended solely kr the information of the
addressee and not for further dissemination.
,
Document Po?
110. ctimge., 0
CHANGE in aTSs:
DECLASSIFIaSSED
DDA Memo, 4
Auth : DDA RmEAGR. 71g7m3y ?
TS
Myr 77
1763
Date :
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
For Week Ending
4 May 1949
GREECE
....eACRET
Vol. IV No. 17
Poison ivy on the olive branch: Only the Soviet bloc can gain any satis-
faction from General Assembly President Evates recent hints that he
will soon give birth to a magic formula for conciliation between Greece
and its northern neighbors. In view of the present delicate state of intra-
Balkan relations, any further efforts by Evatt along this line- or any
resulting General Assembly debate at this point, without regard.for the
present complications of the debate on the explosive Greek issue--would
serve only to retard the evolution in the area of a situation more favor-
able to the West. As both the Greeks and the Western powers have
already pointed out to Evatt, his proposed conciliation attempt would at
the vary least provide the Soviet bloc '771tli at opportunity to coduse the
issue, much as did his ill-conceived Balkan conciliation proposals of
late 1948. There is also the danger that the Communists would again
attempt to maneuver Greece into hasty recognition of "existing" boundaries
without any guarantees against satellite territory-grabbing or against
future aid to the guerrillas. In any case, it is inconceivable that Soviet
strategists would take Evatt's proposals seriously at this stage in the
military situation, particularly if they decided that it was time for
Albania and Bulgaria to step up their logistical aid to the guerrillas.
TURKEY
In search of additional US financial aid: Following Foreign Minister
raikriofferences with Washingtoiraficials, during which the subject
of additional financial aid to Turkey was discussed, differences of
opinion have arisen among US representatives in Ankara as to how
additional aid (if there is to be any) should best be applied. Ambassador
Wadsworth has recommended that military aid in addition to that now
proposed for FY 50 (about $100 million) be increased by $20 million
to complete approved military projects, such as construction of mili-
tary airfields. The ECA representative in Turkey, on the other hand,
believes that additional, financial aid--possibly as much as $30 million--
patter
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
should rather be provided as a means of directly improving the national
economy. This, in his opinion, could be done by providing ECA grants
to buy consumer goods. He maintains that the important ECA purposes of
curbing inflation and of restoring sound finances in participating countries
would thus be served. (The estimated deficit in Turkey's national budget
for the current year is about the same in terms of local currency as
the amount suggested--$30 million.) In Washington, responsible officials
do not believe that it is practicable at this stage to add to the amount
already being asked of Congress for military aid to Turkey. The Turkish
Government has been informed that, in order to receive more aid, it
must present concrete proposals, drawn up in a coherent and logical
manner, to ECA through OEEC in Paris. If presented in such a way,
the proposals are promised careful and sympathetic study. It seems
hardly credible that in the fourth year of Turkey's continuing search for
US financial assistance the Turkish Government has not yet thoroughly
learned how to present. economic projects in a simple, clear, and business-
like manner.
PALESTINE
Lausanne development: Israel's refusal to make a conciliatory state-
ment in regard to the possible return of some Di the Arab refugees to
Israel has set the Lausanne Conference off on the wrong foot. The
Israeli representatives insist that this issue must be discussed as a part
of the general peace settlement. The Arabs, however, refuse to negotiate
any the other issues until Israel has admitted at least partial responsi-
bility for the refugees and agreed to accept the return of at least a token
number of them. Unless Israel can be persuaded to modify its present
position at Lausanne, neither an Arab-Israeli peace settlement nor
Israeli membership in the UN is likely to be achieved before the next
regular session of the General Assembly in September.
ARAB STATES
Possibility of coups: Recent unconfirmed reports indicate the possibility
of coups d'etat in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan, but it is considered unlikely
that these revolts will take place. Although political instability has
developed in the Arab states as a result of economic hardships and dis-
illusion over Palestine, and although it is always possible that Jordan or
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
t.p.aeleiET
3.
Iraq (or both) will make trouble over the Greater Syria issue, there is
very little evidence that any coups are being planned. The report on
Egypt suggests that Haider Pasha, the Minister of Defense, has King
Farouk's support in planning to overthrow the present constitutional
government and set up a military dictatorship. Neither Haidar Pasha nor
Farouk, however, is believed to have enough popularity in the army or
among the people to risk a coup at this time. In Lebanon, the constitutional
regime under President Khuri is reported threatened, presumably by
some faction in the army, but Khuri has almost certainly been sufficiently
warned by the recent Syrian trouble to take preventive steps against a
"Zahn" coup in Lebanon. The report on Jordan merely claims that King
Abdullah will be overthrown. Although Abdullah has been repeatedly
threatened with assassination (the latest attempt was in March 1949),
it is not likely that the Hashimite regime could be overthrown so long
as the UK retains its influence in Jordan and particularly in the Arab
Legion.
IRAN
Premier asks for US aid: Recent Iranian muttering over the extent of US
aid to Turkey has now culminated in a lengthy letter from Prime Minister
Sped, requesting that Iran be supplied with direct US military and finan-
cial assistance to the same degree as its neighbor to the west. Seed's
request, which expressed concern lest the policy of building up a strong
Turkey invite Soviet aggression against Iran, is more significant than
recent pronouncements of the Shah along the same lines, not only because
it is the first such request to be made in writing but also because Saed
is less given to impetuous statements than is the darkly handsome young
occupant of the Palace. There is no doubt that Iran could absorb more
than the token military aid provided thus far by the US, and it is quite
possible that Iran, which is already earmarking substantial revenues for
economic development, may eventually require direct US economic
assistance. Moreover, while denial of his present request would hardly
cause the staunchly pro-US Saed to reverse Iran's present attitude toward
the USSR, he might have difficulty in explaining US treatment of Iran to
his countrymen.
"er,CRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
I Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-R6P78-01617A004700010051-3
NOTED IN BRIEF
Women's suffrage in Greece has been greatly extended by an act approved
by cabinet on 21 April providing dia women over 25 years of age may
vote in municipal elections and may seek office as municipal and communal
advisors. The new law, which will affect a number of local elections which
the government hopf?as to hold this year, also provides that after 1953 local
suffrage will be extended to all women over 21 and a greater number of
municipal offices will be open to women candidates. While Greek women
are still voiceless in national politics, the new law partly removes an
important Communist talking point.
*
Recurrent rumors of German participation in Greek guerrilla activities are
still unconfirmed and generally discounted. Nevertheless, increased
popular aid activity for the Greek guerrillas has been noted in the Soviet
Zone of Germany, following the visit of a guerrilla deputation in January
and February of this year, and the Soviet-controlled Berlin radio has
announced that two first-aid trucks. one ambulance, and surgical instru-
ments have been sent to the Greek guerrillas by German workers. However,
the German artillery pieces recently reported to have arrived in the Vitsi
area from Albania undoubtedly come from Soviet or Satellite booty rather
than directly from German sources.
Repatriation of the Greek children abducted by the Greek guerrillas and
now in Satellite countries appears as remote as ever. The Red Cross,
which was charged by the UN General Assembly with preparations for the
repatriation, reports a lack of funds for the undertaking, and the Satellites
remain uncooperative. Meanwhile it has become apparent that the exiled
children are being thoroughly indoctrinated into the Communist view of
life, and many of the older ones have returned to Greece to alleviate the
guerrilla manpower problem.
Another shooting incident at the Bulgarian border, during which Turkish
troops reportedly did not return the Bulgarians' fire, has occurred after
some weeks of calm in that troublesome area. One Turkish official view--
that the incident may have reflected no more than prankishness on the
part of unsober Bulgarian military personnel--may not be far from the
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
5.
truth. This sort of provocative Soviet-Satellite action certainly does not
seem in accord with the current outburst of Soviet amicability in Europe,
just as the US Senate begins discussion of the Atlantic Treaty and the
Military Aid Program.
?14
???
An economic delegation from Israel has gone to London to discuss the
question of frozen Israeli sterling balances. These balances fall into
two categories; (1) sterling cover for the old Palestine Currency Board
notes which formerly constituted the currency of Palestine and Trans Jordan;
and (2) holdings of individual business houses. When these balances were
blocked in February 1948, the total amounts involved were in the neighbor-
hood of L 100 million; some releases, however, have been made since
that date. It is probable that any agreement reached will be designed
primarily to develop and stimulate trade relations between the two countries.
Morale among immigrants to Israel is suffering a set-back during the first
months of peace. Clamor for jo6s aneniousing Is loud, while pioneering
in settlements in the desert is not viewed with much enthusiasm. The
Israeli "in-gathering of exiles" crusade, essential to Israel's political
survival, presents the state with a critical need for financial assistance
In settling the new immigrants. To supplement contributions from abroad,
a new austerity program of rationing and taxation is being launched inside
Israel.
There are reports that the ever-troublesome Kurds in northern Iraqi
areas, egged on by Communis and local leftists, are increasing their
agitation for autonomy. There have also been rumors (probably untrue)
that MuIla Mustapha, the Barzani Kurds' leader now in the USSR, is planning
to return to Iraq to lead a revolt. Nuri Pasha will probably bring back
some selected elements of the Iraqi Army (now in Jordan) for use as
security troops in the north. The return of the whole army might prove
unwise with respect to internal security in view of the dissatisfaction
among the troops over the Palestine fiasco.
itmreftadiaft.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3
"ter
The Israeli delegation at Lausanne refuses to talk with the Syrians before
EfiFThiaeii-Sririan armistice is signed. At this rate the twain may never
meet, for the armistice negotiations are hopelessly bogged down at present.
Israel demands that Syria accept the formula agreed to in the Lebanese
negotiations by which the international political boundary became the
armistice demarcation line. This would involve Syrian withdrawal from
the Mistimes' Hay-Tarden strong-point above Lake Tiberias, Syria's
only conquest and bargaining point with Israel, which Syria is most
reluctant to give up. Zahn claims to be willing to compromise with
/srael and work out a "realistic" settlement concerning territory and
refugees and favors a frontier which would follow the center of the Jordan
Rift up the Jordan River and through Lakes 'Tiberias and Hula, thereby
adding several small areas of Palestine to Syria.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010051-3