NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 16 FEBRUARY 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010040-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: February 16, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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FUR EAU/AMIGA WANCH
WIC.; Or =JCS AND tSTIPATES
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NOTICE: This document is a =irking paper; NOT
an aficial CIA issuance, and Me not necessarily
been coordinated with other URE producing compo-
nents,. It represents current thinking by one
group of specialists in C3A4 and is designed for
use by others engaged on simUar or overlapping
studies. The opinions expressed herein may be
revised before final and official publication?
It is intended solely for the inforcation of the
addressee and not for further dissemination.
copy
Document No.
NO CHANGE in Class. 0
)61
ECLASSIFIED
iass. CHAI7GED TO: TS S 0
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77 1763
Date: By: Olt
for: ,e,AAAA:titl
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE &MARY
For Week Ending
16 February 1949
GREECE
Vol, IV Nbe 6
Military situation: The psychological effects of the dismissal of
Markos and local developments in several areaa are providing the Greek
Army with a unique opportunity for effective action against the guer-
rillas. The -signs of diesention within the Communist ranks which marked
the drooping of Markos seem to have lowered guerrilla morale and improved
that of the Greek Army, which has been further heartened by the windup
of the prolonged anti-terrorist campaign in the Peloponnesue. At the
? sane time the aggressive tactics recently adopted by Zachariades have
resulted in the exposure to government counteraction of larger guerrilla
forces than was previously the case. The army did not move aggressively
enough against the 3,300 guerrillas who captured Earpenision, so that
the guerrilla force was able to escape with insignificant casualties,
taking some 2,000 forced recruits along with it. However, the army
showed new spirit in Its successful defenses of Serrai and of Florina
from which some 4,000 guerrillas are now in retreat, and a newly effected
revision of command structure for northern and central Greece may
facilitate more rapid action against future guerrilla raids, The
anmy's advantages?both psychological and tactical--are only temporary,
If the army can utilize them vigorously, without becoming bogged down
by overconfidence, however, it may be able to obtain more lasting benefits.
TUREEY
Premier Gllnaltay's speech disappointing.: Premier Conaltay's program,
recently presented to the National Assembly, contains little to indicate
that this cabinet will be any more able than its predecessor to solve
the nation's economic ills. The Premier's speech gave no indication
that any effective steps would be taken to reduce the high cost of
living or the exorbitant price of products manufactured by government-
awned enterprise and protected by a high tariff. The Premier indicated
his intention of balancing the budget, reforming the tax laws, and
encouraging private investment in productive enterprises; he did not,
however, make clear the procedure to be followed in these worthy projects?
The mild reaction of the opposition to this ill-defined address suggests
that President Mann privately requested the principal anti-government
group (the Democrats) to go easy in attacking the new government, The
opposition's forbearance is likely to prove mbre praiseworthy than long-
lasting.
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2?
PALESTINE
NO progress at Rhodes: As the Egyptian-Israeli armistice negotiations
at-Rhodes enter their second month, agreement appears to be as far
away as ever. The UN Acting Mediator's proposals for a compromise
were accepted with minor changes by Egypt but were rejected by the
Israelis, who are outspoken in their determination to impose a Hvictorla
peace." Meanwhile, although several of the other Arab states have
tentatively agreed to initiate negotiations with Israel, their full
agreement is contingent upon successful conclusion of the Egyptian
talks. The UN Conciliation Commission continues to keep aloof from
the current discussions, fearing that if it should become identified
with an unsuccessful outcome, its subsequent efforts to reach a settle-
ment would be prejudiced.
On the credit side of the ledger should be entered the fact that
hoLtilities in Palestine have not been resumed during the talks and that
neither Egypt nor Israel has taken the decisive step of withdrawing
from the parley. It appears increasingly unlikely, however, that the
Rhodes conference will provide any solid foundation for a permanent
peace,
The Arab refugees: The future of the more than 700,000 Arab refugees
remains unsettled, Israel has no intention of permitting their return
in any substantial numbers, and the Arab states are neither milling
nor able to absorb them, Israel is preoccupied with assimilating
immigrants from other countries, and Israeli spokesmen declare that
Israells economy cannot support the return of the Arabs and that in
any event their return mould endanger Israeli security, In taking
over Arab property for their own use, the Israelis assert that they are
merely taking advantage of a situation which they themselves did not
create.
The countries neighboring Palestine have stretched their resources
as far as possible in extending temporary aid to the refugees and would
be unable to absorbe the refugees permanently without assistance from
outside. Iraq with 5,000 refugees and Transjordan with over 80,000
have an additional responsibility for 200,000 in central Arab Palestine--
a cpstant drain on almost non-existent resources. Syria with 100,000
is weeks behind in its dole program. Lebanon is nearly bankrupt;
furthermore, the 90,000 refugees now in the country could not be integrated
into its sensitively balanced Christian-Moslem grouping, The 8,000
refugees in Egypt are all that the Egyptians can handle; the 2509000
in the coastal area of Palestine occupied by the Egyptian Army endure
theemorst conditions of all under their defeated benefactors.
S'Estrr
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3.
The danger exists that the refugees, once they are fully aware
of their plight, will be so embittered as to become a source of per-
manent unrest in the Arab world. Already scattered riots have occurred
and thievery is increasing. As idle malcontents, the refugees could be
readily exploited by subversive elements. Employment would go far
toward dissipating this dangers but it isnot available in the impoverished
Arab states. Foreign financing would be necessary for projects which
would provide a livelihood for the refugees and promote permanent resettle-
ment. Vast undeveloped regions in Transjordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and
Arab Palestine could be utilized for such projects as irrigation,
fisheries, roads, and oil pipelines. Administration would be difficult,
and the reward to investors might not be immediate, but the refugees
would face exile with less hostility if they could look forward to
permanent shelter and regular meals.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
Afghanistan and the tribesmen: Afghanistan is again evincing a strong
interest in the future or the Pathan tribesmen of Pakistan's northwestern
frontier areas. The Afghans emphasize that they have no territorial ambitions
in the matter, but they have indicated that they cannot enter into closer re-
lations with Pakistan unless treaty provisions are made for granting the
tribesmen substantial autonomy. They assert that Pakistan is already
com-
mitted to granting virtual freedom to the tribal areas and are calling for
the creation, under some such name as Pakhtoon or Pathanistan, of a new
state, embracing both Pakistan's North Nest Frontier Province and its border
states to the north, which would recocnize the linguistic awl cultural
identity of the border population and would be federated with Pakistan.
The Afghans have emphasized their interest in the Pathan question by stat-
ing that the Afghan Government would face revolution and possible Soviet
intervention if it entered into any agreements with Pakistan without insuring
the cultural integrity of the Pathans,
The Afghan assertions are no doubt deliberately exaggerated. They
are indicative, however, of Afghanistan's determination to do as much
as possible to force Pakistan to make a settlement of the tribal issue
which would prevent the complete integration of the frontier territories
with the rest of Pakistan, Tribal sentiment in Afghanistan undoubtedly
supports some form of autonomy for the Pathans, who live on both sides
of the frontiers and if thwarted this sentiment may be sufficiently strong
to embarrass or even to jeopardize the present Afghan regime. The Afghan
Government itself opposes the strengthening of Pathan ties with Pakistan
because it fears the loss of the military strength which it has always
counted on the pro-Afghan Pathans to supply in the event of external
threat. The Afghan Government ie probably also moved by a desire to assure
that the lands west of the Indus would revert to Afghan control if Pakistan
were to disappear as a nation.
apentr-
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Initially, Pakistan can be expected to deny having made any
commitments toward the tribesmen and to resist any attempt to treat
the frontiersmen as other than an integral part of the Pakistan popula-
tion? Pakistan is well aware, however, of the dangers of serious dis-
affection among the frontier people and realizes that the Pathans,
batter armed than ever as a result of their participation in the Kashmir
fighting, may seize upon the issue of autonomy as an outlet for their
chronic restiveness now that they have been forced to withdraw from
Kashmir. Pakistan may therefore decide to grant the tribesmen a con-
siderably greater degree of autonomy than is now contemplated. If
Pakistan does not do so, it is possible that within the next year serious
disorders might develop on both sides of the border, and both India
and the USSR might then be tempted to intervene?
NOTED IN BRIEF
Exclusion of Turkey from the Atlantic Pact continues to cause
uneasiness in Ankara. The Turkish Uovernment has been officially
assured that, even if for geographic reasons alone Turkey.must neces-
sarily be excluded from such a group, the country's security interests
will not be overlooked. Foreign Minister Sadak, however, last week
made statements to the press indicating that the Turks are not wholly
reassured on the point and still feel that there is a possibility of
Turkey's becoming isolated while the Atlantic Pact nations are being
bolstered with US support. He is now commenting, albeit nebulously,
on the possibilities of a correlated Mediterranean security agreement,
Turkey may appeal to the International Court of Justice for release
of the army officer who crossecithe Bulgarian border on horseback about
a year ago. The Bulgarians arrested the officer and condemned him to
death on a charge of espionage, The sentence was suspended after the
Turkish Government made it evident that it would break relations with
Bulgaria if the unfortunate officer were executed. He is still in
Bulgaria, however, and the case is among the more serious recent in-
cidents contributing to the continued state of friction between the
two governments.
Press reports that the UK and Israel have agreed upon conditions
for reopening the Haifa refinery in the near future are without founda-
tion, according to an Iraq Petroleum Company official at Haifa. The
fact that an Israeli Government spokesman released the information on
which the reports are based suggests that Israel may be trying to force
the Company's hand.
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igiaarta
5.
The assassination of Sheikh Hassan el Hanna, leader of the lid-man
(Moslem Brotherhood), on 12 February in Cairo may touch off a new series
of retaliatory outbreaks in Eg/pt although Egyptian police throughout
the 'country have been alerted for further trouble, Since the govermental
banning of the Moslem Brotherhood on 8 December 1948, Ildtwan members--
operating as an underground organization?have been responsible for
repeated disturbances, the most serious incident being the assassination
in late December of Prime Minister Nokrashy Pasha, head of the Saadist
Party, While the loss of the Litman founder and leader may eventually
weaken the organization and thus promote greater domestic peace in
Egypt, the government is seriously concerned regarding its internal
security during the next few weeks.
The evident friendliness between Egyptian and British representatives
in discussions about increased irrigation for the Nile River may presage
a reopening of talks for revising the Anglo?Egyptian Treaty of 1936.
While King Farouk and high?level political leaders have repeatedly
shown a secret interest in ameliorating Egypt2s relations with the UK,
they have found no formula for overcoming the expected popular reaction
against any mutual agreement which does not provide for complete British
withdrawal from the Suez Canal Zone and also from the Sudan. Egypt is
continuing difficulties in Palestine and Prime Minister Abdel Beate
inability either to quell occasional domestic outbreaks or to form a
united party front in his cabinet are factors which may influence a
renewed effort on the part of Egypt to bring about a general rapproche?
ment with the UK.
The Czechoslovak Ministry of Foreign Trade reports that its com
mercin mission to Ethiopia has been successful. Arrangements have been
made to export sugar, tires, glass, jewelry, hunting firearms, leather
goods, textiles, and paper to Ethiopia, and negotiations are now being
conducted for delivery of sugar refining equipment. Exchange of merchan?
dise can be increased provided Czechoslovakia is willing to import
Ethiopian leather, oil seeds, and coffee. The Trade Mission has shown
little interest in Ethiopian exports, however, and this relationship
between the tw.; countries may serve as a cover for satellite infiltra?
tion.
The first shipment of US Arms Credit supplies for /rat!, consisting
of 48 tanks and 25,000 rounds of ammunition, reached Bandar Shahpur on
5 February,: While Arms Credit materiel will represent a sizable
SiensParT
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6,
increment of modern equipment to the Iranian Any, currently armed with
outmoded equipment and lacking mobility, the chief task of the army
will continue to be the maintenance of internal order and security rather
than preparative for formal defense against a Soviet invasion. It is
expected, however, that these shipments will raise Iranian morale, which
has suffered both from uneasiness in the army over Iran's military
inferiority and from an impression in the Minds of military leaders
that the US is not interested in Iran's fate. These Iranians disparagingly
comment on the large quantities of supplies which the US has given to
Greece and Turkey while shipping nothing to Iran.
The UK has reacted vigorous17 to the Iranian Government's recent
action crippling the authority of the Imperial Bank of Iran to engage
in foreign exchange transactions. The UK maintains that this authority
is not tied up with the concession, which expired on 30 January, and
that six months' notice must be given before the authority can be with-
drawn. The UK has notified the Iranian Government that it therefore
considers Iran's action null and void.
?
The majlis has pigeonholed a court-sponsored bill seriously
restricting freedom ofrthe press. This action indicates that, although
the Shah's position may have been strengthened by the abortive attempt
on his life, the Majlis is still not disposed to cater to his ambitions.
setingr
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