INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 2 FEBRUARY 1949 VOL. IV NO. 4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: February 2, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

H
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
/ 5jf SECRET
MAR EAST/AFRICA BRAWCill
OFFICE OF .REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
ViaRlaNG PAPER
NOTICE: This .docinnent is a working paperp .NOT
irOTTEcial CIA issuance,' and has not necessarily
' been coordinated with other ORE producing 'compo?
nents. It represents current thinking by one ,
group of specialists in 01A9. and is designed for
use by others engaged on similar or overlapping
studies, The opinions expressed herein may be
. revised before final and official publication.
It iS intended- solely for the information of the
addressee and not for further dissemination.?
, .
(bpy for:
Document No.
NO CHANGE ih Class.
DECLASSIFIED
Class. CHAnED TO: TS
DDA,Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77/1763
Date: +.44AR 1,7q, .
By- Ar",/,
SECRET
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
I
' Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8 .
,-;asrwertET
ilitELLIGEtta: SMILIA RV
For Week Ending
? 2 February 3049
Vol_ IV Nov It
? NEAR FAST/AFRICA &mum
OFFICE OF. nEroirrs AND ESTIMATES
CFNTRAI., INTELLIGENCE Aoraicr
L, Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENKE WANE
For Week aiding
2 February 1949
GREET
Vol. IV No-4
Guerrilla "peace_offers" The Marken truce proposal of 27 January was
sizdaar to previous offers and appears to have been designed mainly
as propaganda. The broadcast was probably. intended to convince any
doubting rebels of the guerrillas: desire for an end of hostilities,
to discredit the Greek Government for refusing a "reasonable" peace,
and thus to lower the morale of Greek soldiers and civilians, As the
timing of the proposal indicates coordination with Moscow:s current
"peace offensive," the broadcast may also have been aimed at: (1) delay-
ing US Congressional action on the 1949-50 Greek aid program; and (2)
paving the way for a possible Soviet move either to Seek an internationally -
imposed settlement in Greece, favorable to the Goatzunist or to justify
increased Sorlet-satellite support of Markos.
With such pseudo-peace proposals markos continues to hold the
propaganda initiative, but these tactics nin him few new supporters.
It is not likely that he expected the Greek Government to accept his
proposals.. The government has declared more than once that it can
accept only an unconditional surrender from the guerrillas, Moreover,
.most of the Greek people are opposed to any compromise which might result .
in Greece:a becoming "another Czechoslovakia
PALESTINE
Rhodes impasse' The signs of deadlock emanating from the Rhodes Con-
ference have a discouragingly reminiscent quality. On three previous
oceasions during the past year there has, been a brief flareup of hosti-
lities, followed by a UN-decreed cease-fire and then a fruitless effort
by the UN to persuade the belligerents to compose their differences;-the
imminent completion of this cycle for a fourth time indicates that serious
difficulties remain in the way-of a settlement. Although the Rhodes
talks between Israel and Egypt have not yet broken up, their failure to
achieve an armistice will probably have an Adverse effect on Israel a'
negotiations with.Transjordaeend Lebanon, which have been held up
pending the Rhodes outcome, Transjordan and Lebanon are more interested
in a-final settlement than the Egyptians (whose willingness to negotiate
at all was given exaggerated emphasis); and these two countries will
`Stri---ZET
1. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
tBeitirr
2.
probably engage in new talks with the Israelia at Jerusalem if not at
'Rhodes. tiMvertheleas the two Arab govinetnents bete failed to reach
agreemnt with Israel far and considerations similar to those
which blocked an larneliergyptite deal will amtinue to affect their
bargaining. Although the decision of the UK and the major estern
European countries to recognice Israel nay Impress the Arabs, it will.
not necessarily dissuade then from believing that continued stalemate,
even at the rick of further Jewiah aggression, is preferable to open.
abandonment of their Claims. Xing Abdullah? who has stressed bin desire
to bargain, nay go further than the others toward compromising with the
/sraelies partictilarly now that he has received the moral support of
US remeniticre. Even if Abdullah ignores the more warm? 'claims of the
other Arab states however, his desire to obtain the best posaible.terms,
on. fostered by the British, may well impede a protpt settlements even for
his limited sphere of Palestine.
? ISRAEL
?
Draelts elections: Israelis first general elections, held on 25 Januarys
.provided low surprises exceptas it indicated the weakness of the present
. regimets more extreme opponents. While Prime Minister Ben-Guriones
moderately socialist MAPAI organizations Which has dpminated the coalition
from the start, was polling 37,8 percent of the 4279027 votes cast for a
total of 44 out of the 120 Constituent Assembly seats at stake.,,EeiginIs
right-ring Freedom Partys the most vociferous opponent or the governments
? 1786 able te win only 14 seats; the Coax:mints elected a total of -4
delegates (2 Jewish and 2 Arab), and the Stern Gang succeeded in electing
only its leader Yellin, now in jail for terrorism. MAPAI has some ?
differences of opinion with the two groups from which it must gate the
support, needed for a eorking majority. MAPAM, whose 18 seats niake it
? the Assembbris second largest party, is more cordial to the USSR. (and
less so to the US) than MAPAI, while the United Religious bloc, which
'elected 17 delegates, wants the state to have a strongly religious
character. MAPAIls mandate from the people is strong enough, howevers
to enable it to form a coalition capable of repressing manifestations of ,
A ultra-orthodoxy or exaggerated leanings toward the USSR on the part
of the other elements in the 'government. Although MAPAM is already in
the government, come friction withMAP:a has ,arisen. Bon-Gurion, therefore,
might wish to drop MOAN from the coalition, obtaining the necessary
support from the United Religious bloc and the two small center partiess
the General Zionists and the Progressives.
EGIPT
Wed still out of coalition: Recent negotiations to strengthen the
.gpvernment by providing cabinet representation for the Wards Egyptls
largest political party, appear to have reached a dead ends-although
neither the palace nor the Wafdists wish to end, their negotiations on
LDeclassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
.ypeeTztor
the subject? The King and his advieers have shown an unusually con-
ciliatory attitude toward the Wed this tine, and the difficulty appears '
to arise chiefly out of diasentionwithin the rad Party Steel!. A
Minotity,in the party would welcome participation in the government in '
order to help obtain a prompt election. The doninant faction? however,
-.tithes to continue the party's two-year-old "hands off" policy in order? .
to avoid Sharing responsibility for either the-Palestine problem or the.
,-%surrent:tnn on the Noel= Brotherhood.
? 4
KtrtTAIT
Off-shore oil: tie American Independent Oil Corpany (AMI1100)? which
? recently o'btained the concession for KuwaitI:a interest in the Neutral
? Zow, has run afoul of the Kuwait Oil Company (WC), holder of the
concession in Kuwait proper, on the subject of off-shore oil rights.
? Neither concession treats of off-shore rights, and as a result both
AMINCO and ROC have laid claim to drilling rights on several of the small
? islands in the Persian Gulf. ROC has received the support of the
British Foreigi Office, which fools that confirsation of AISINO0te
claims would extend the sovereignty of Saudi Arabia (which shares
Neutral Zone rights with Blireit) and thus strain Saudi-Kuwait relations.,
? Iniumrach as the UK controls Kuwait's foreign relations and also holds
? a part interest inROC it may be that AMINCO will find too maw big
? battalions arrayed against it, particularly since the US has thus far
been unwilling to intervene in the dispute.
NOTED IN BRIEF' ?
Markey has, litany succeeded in forcing the 'Greek Army to weaken
its offensive in the Peloponnesue. The annyis track commando units
have now been sent north from the Peloponnesus to aid in the ? recapture
of Karpianision? which the guerrillas have held since 20 January.
The Communists in Cyprus have recently dropped their demands for
Cypriot siili?government and taken up the popular cry for Enosis (Union
with Greece). Mile this shift may reflect a more optiraistice view of
Communist progress in Greece, its immediate purpose is to increase
Communist chances in the April municipal elections.
The first of the USSR-bound Italian reoarations vessels has
transited the Turkish Straits, and-the 1:lattleshipTht/O?CESARE and
'other vessels are scheduled to depart from Italian eaters as soon as
the UR is satisfied regarding return of the battleship ROYAL SOVEREIGN,
' (
i Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
?
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
whithwhs borrowed by the USSR under lend-tecce. The present arrange-
meat are that the rtaining ItrAian weeselsvill hoist the Soviet flag
. at Valena Bay, Albaniap thus avoiding rielation of the Montreux Con-
vention martins restage through the Strata of Varships of non-Sleek
Sea pontra,
teUitodirttttc rg1httonshts nIthTuekeY are being placed on
anon comet a c uricap itender whether an
OrganteedroveMentves occurring when the chief of several satellite
diplozatic missions left Anknen recently) have nen been approached 111th
requests for .1..-?tts. for a.new idgonlaw Aehassnodr and a new Bulgarian '
Mieletet.
? in olosin vererant =heels inira? from 25 January to ,
5 robruary, y tor te year you the 'Iraqi Government
Is probably acting in fear that large-scale student demonstrations,
? lninerary of the itartyrsn of January 1948 will take place if the, schools
? remain open. -
?
The overwhelming vote of confidenee recentlyaven to the Lebanese '
-
by the ahmaher of l?putiea indicates thafinbanomus newly formed
? parlimmentary opposition is toe weak to effeetively oppose Prime Minister.
Sohl, Who apperentlynill he able to continue to head the government
as long as he desires. ?
?Although civil disturbances are common in Ethiopia, the government
is desperatilitryreg to prevent news of recent aieorders from getting
outside its borders, loot that the countries favoring cession of the -
southeastern portion of Eritrea to -Ethiopia may have a change of heart
:-if:they believe Ethiopia cannot keep its house in order.
the Sinclair Gil Company has had no friction with either the
Ethiopian Gavernment, the Somali tribes, or the British Military
fidnimistretion since its recent resumption of operations at Whrdero
in the Ogaden. Actual drilling for oil has been retarded, however)
by the serious difficulty encountered' by the Sinclair exploration party
in its search for adequate supplies of rater, If, as predicted by some
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
L.
???' . ? .?
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
50
eiPerts; the amounts needed for oil operations will not be found above, -
tea lova (i.e.; at a dapth.of about 1;400 feet); heavier water drilling
rill.have to be brought from the USs. ?
. Prime Minieter Nehruen public:otatement of 26 January; emphasizing
Indials intention to steer clear o? 'Tower blowy elasticity of its
..relationehipiwith?the CorkArm'ealth, and the possibility of further regional
.nction on Indonesia!, represented no departure from his previous speeches
. on foreign policY. The statement vas probablimotivatedbya desire to
counter criticism rithin India of the government4 policies regarding
-Commenioalthrelations and alleged foreign preset= for moderation at
the Asian Conference?
? The situation in Kashmir has remained generally qcto although
minor re occurred along the borders of west and east Punjab
Indian and? Pakistan Amy officials islet at different points ,in Kashmir
last week to work out adjustnt and distribution of local defense troops.,
* * *
? -A dock workers strike which threatens. to break out at IslombaSal the
chief' seaport of Kemal, may disrupt the export or three coumodie.es
needed for US strategic ?stockpiling, sisal; pyrethrum; and kyanite?
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22: CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010038-8
-0 ?