INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 12 JANUARY 1949 VOL. IV NO. 2

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010036-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: January 12, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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? s Li? C rEes
,GA LIBRARY
Nc
INTELLIGENCE Sit SART
tibr took Ending
12 January 19249
Vol. IV No. 2
Document No.
NO CHANGE In Masse DI
o DECLASSIFIED ?
Class. CHAYGED TO: TS T
DDA ,Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77 /763
Date: a MAR 74B5F1
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANQ1
OFFICE OP REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTSAL INTELLIDEIZE AOTSOI
.300' 'Or
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRUM
INTELIIGENCESUZARY
Felt ;Oak Ending .
/2 January 1949
vole IV I43.2
'dREtCE
?
New facitii!LIDAIL.governmentt Prime Einister Sophoulisc Pooulist-
lAberal is nou undergoing its first major face-lifting
since the original version of the coalition took office in Septer:tber
29h7, Porter Prime Minister George Papandreou, who heads a bloc of
30 centrist\deputie% has agreed to join the cabinet as Einister of
Itar? with the additional rank of 'Deputy. Prime itinister, and three
of his followers are also to receive cabinet nests, beanuhile Field
Uarshal Alexander Papagos? hero of the 1941 Albanian campaign, has
been named to the new post of Coranander-in-Chief of the Greek ArmyQ
Yhile these innovations promise no spectacular imediate results, .
they should'facilitate,.in the long run, some much-nceded improvements
in the funotioning of the government and the army. Papandreou has.
Strong ideas about tax reform, civilian mobilization, and the refugee
problem, and his bloc of votes should prevent the government from .
being engulfed in another enervating political crisis when parliament
reconvenes on 1 February. Papagos insisted on obtaining sweeping. '
pOwers--including complete control of the arrays freedom from political
interference? and strict censorship of military ratters?rbefore he '
would accept the post of Cozwiantionntnalliefirand it appears that,
despite his political ambition% he will amphatige military effective-
ness in his new position. Under these circumstances he maybe able
to end the indecision and defeatism' which have hitherto hampered the
army high commando
PALESTINE
E tian-Israeli ? ? ? eta: Although Egypt and Israel have accepted
t,e oecuraty. Counci cease-fire order, prospects for a. negotiated
settlement- between-the_two countries are not bright. Egypt will
doubtless be Unwilling even' to-enter into.negotiationsao long as
there is any doubt concerning the Compiete-mitbdraval of Israeli
forces fromTgyptian territory. Moreover it is probieMatical whether
Egypt mill negotiate unless (as- is most unlikely) Israeli troops in
the Negeb comply with the SC's Order to retire to their poeitions ?
of 14 October. At for the Israelis, Jewish militerY. leaders are con-
vinced that they can achieve more by.militaty. action than, through N.
arbitration,and are disappointed that Israel accepted-the cease-fire
before the Egyptian Army had been Completely defeated andpushed out .
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of .Palestine. Israeli political tandem, however, were sufficiently
: sennitivt to pressure by the US and UK to accept the cease-fire. 'If.
: the Kamrenairm _responsive to US and UK pressure and makes sopa' ?
.Concessions to Egypt (such ac relief of the trapped Faluja garrison
and acqUicseence in-Egyptian control of the-Gama coastal area): the
. Egyptians will. probably fen]. that they can negotiate with Israel
without a'completc loss of fact. If, hater. the POI disregards
aouttide pressure and adopte an uncompromising attitude.toward Egypt,
the negotiations will break down, Such a development would mean a
'renewal-of the righting or, at best, a continuation of the costly
'armed truce shift is draining the strength of both sides.
IRAQ
fall_p_f_tpe_geyernmentt The resignation of the Padhachi 'Cabinet in #
WirigmtianracieFfe.d. It had long been apparent that thp govern-..
mentis inability to cope with the countrycs economic difficultiesa.
coupled with the unsatisfactory Palestine situation, would bring
.about its dawnfalle As 'Jeri Seid, iraqta Grand Old Nan, prepared
-once again to take a dominant role,in-determining the countryto foreign
policy0theie 'could be little doubt that the British Foreign Office
Nr.as attacking its breakfast kippers with a greatly improved appetite,
aBritish influence in the country has been tenuous ever since the eon-
clusion-of World War II is a result Of intensified lraqi Cationaliem? T
-.Which scored its greatest triumph in forcing rejection of. the Portsmouth
. Treaty almost exactly a year .ago. Nuri2s long record of cooperation
? 'arith the UK, however, gives reason to believe that British nsuggestionsa
.? may receive somewhat more sympathetic, considetation than they have
been getting of late--a devolOpment of particular importance now, at ?
the Palestine negotiations enteriaMoSt deliCate stage. Incidentally,
: the time would appear most appropriate for the UK to take some?concrete
? step tmuatd the easing of Irangs ecOnemie Pieblems; such a move would
.raise both the UKts own steck,and thattof Pbri. The Regent has'pro- ?
reeved the Parliament for one-monthp_whioh should give Nuri a breathing
. spell to conslialate his position before it becomes necessary to ask for
.a vote of confidence
. NOTED IN BRIEF'
More Greek children arc apparently being dispatched to satellite
countries notwithstanding Natkoso lip service-to the UN resolution of.
27 November for the. repatriation of the 23,696 children sent .since
Narch 1948. In mid-tecember HarkOsi Uinister of Welfare announced
.that no parents had requested the return of their children and that
more were being packed off to the "popular.democracy,0 ,Since then,
.new arrivals have been reported in Rumania from Yugoslavia and
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Albania. . a? a .The Greek hrr? offennive ir the e, ? ? es_ ua
is still in the preliminary s ttWeit? ?
? areas anilines of. corenuniMtion? arresting Coursudet collaborators,
and attempting to prevent {TA-Irvine infiltration of, the any lines. No
? 65tained contact with the guerrillas is expected until the any ?reaches
; the mountains in the centrel Pelopenneaus, svhere the guerrillas nay
offer stubborn resistance. . ... a . The fact that Parke- is
"still .teChniailly at war with Gentany?airi JapantTt?bT8ly been
. noted with sem interest by the Turkitt latatesten considering the problem
Or dealing with. the Italian warships scheduled to pass through: the Straits
noon en route to join the Soviet Black Sea !fleet as reparations. tinder
Article 20 of the gontreux Osnvention, turkey, a belligerent in tine
war, is granted complete discretion regarding passage of warships through
, the straits? ?? aa . The ?Turldsh representative on the three-.
power UN Palestina Conciliation CoTili.Mor-T3s71)7Weizt-o-ra. editor, H.; Cs,.
? Yalpin? who. is noted for his antia?Soviet stews even in a conntry which ? -
places a considerable premium on,oppotition to the US. Italpin is
? specifically established on Vishinstcylp list of Ilwar-mongers,11 and, when
? the Soviet Ambassador harangued lurkeyts1Primo:Liinistor at a recent
reception, ho did not fail to register objeations to an editorial lapin
had just published' on the USSR. . Lebanon rants an
earl Settlement of the Palestine 'issue ani is believed Co be carrying-
' on uno ? a negotia one vii h representatives from Israel for the
evacuation of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon? .00 e a e e ono
ap_ifif ? b i 1 it z?tof_mentitii r ch n t and treat z is raised
? /.-rcift. S-that the new-Syrian Prife-alnister, Jihilici Aziu, ',mould take
steps., to end further isolationism,' from the West0
aie on oc ck'
A further postponement of the Israeli elections (clue to be held on
January) may be necessary if electoral preparations cannot be cors
. pleted in time. Such a delay would prolong the tense pre-elections
? period, during which the vote-conscious political leaders are increasingly ?
'extreme in their chauvinism. ? If the elections are held as scheduled
? and result in the expected MAPAI victory,. Israel will be less hyper-
sensitive in its foreim relatiOns, particularly With the UK, and more ?
.likely to work out some compromise with the Arabs. .; .? , a a .
The rousing reception King Abdallah received on his recent trip to
Arab Thiestine appeared genuine, ana the annexation movement seems to"
be Iptheridg strength throudtout the Anti) world. The Yemenite princes .
who accompanied Abdullah on the trip rare greatly impresSed and reportedly
prord.sed to inform both tin Than- and Ibn Saud of the. real situation. It
has been rumored that Lebanon also looks with favor on the annexation, ?
Syria and rgypt retrain unalterably opposed,. a . a a ?The dist;
integration Of the Arab League continues? Aseam Pasha still cries for
a "do or e' war against Zionism, while the individual Arab state's ?
are?tryik: quietly to find a way of extricating themselves from the
. Palestiee.norassa Lebanon is remarkably amiable about the Israeli troops
ffn
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_
on it? soil. Syria and Iraq have not. offensive for months,
althaagO.Iraqi. troops ern still firnly entrenched in Central Palestine.
,ndri $aidi the now Iraqi Prins 2inistor2,46 openly hostile to the
? Arab leagues and there are strong rumors thatvEgyptts new Prime Uinisters
Abdel Nadi, whose dislike of Arab league is veil known; will terminate
Egyptts membership in the League so that in negotiations over Palestine. ,
Egypt Tin to unhampered by criticism and advice from the other Arab ,
:states.' Eing Abdullsh would be more than delighted to see the League
'Pad ui). It has been the focal point of united opposition to his-Oreater-
?-Syria Plan and an? obstacle to his annexation of Arab Prlestine. 0 0 .
?0,00 The OS 11ilitar&Hission contractIlith'the Iranian Army, due? .
to expire on,20 Harchs has b-The9Th?nCeernror: my year. WC. 43 DOC
? Inan.Wrailwa e-- ? ant has aerioura deteriorated owing to faulty
? main enance, Un ss,a qua a pe art twnit appears that the rail
? system will be unable to fill northern Thence petroleum requirements
and that a-serious situation will develop in the principal southern port
of Ihorramphaha, which is chronically congested. However, the arnY
has apparently allotted sufficient roiling stock to Bender Shahpuryto
insure expeditious handling of the military supplies en route from the? .
US. 0 , 0 0 . The position of the Britishowned Imperial Bank
of Iran and its. capacity to operate successfully-tillbe jeopardized if
thtTranlan:Government follows the recommendation or A, HO Ebtehajp.
Governor-of the Rank Melli (Iranian National Bank). Ebtehaj has proposed
that thecabinet pass a decree Which would drastically niter conditions
.under which the Itaperial Bank would be allowed to continue business
.after the expiration of its concession on 30 January. Although the
details of the decree have not been reported Ebtehej is known to favor
forcing a reduction in the Imperial Hank-:s vial holdingsp curtailing.
its foreign exchange transactions p and. closing its provincial branches,
? While Ebtehaj states that he does not want to exclude the .Imperial Bank
.from Ira% observers considor it doubtful ihat the Imperial Bank could
oPerate.for long under such conditions. The Imperial Bank is the second
most valuable British cormerical asset in Iran; it6 elimination would
mark a reduction of British influence and prestige in the country,.
SE'CIZIrre _
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