INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 28 DECEMBER 1948 VOL. III NO. 50

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010034-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: December 28, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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"Th
?SteeRST--
INIELIICENCE Sagan
ik.r Week Eattrw,_
28 Ikcerober 19128
vol. III No.50
?
Document No. CIO,
NO CHANGE in Class. 0
CHA7GED TO: TS .S
CLASSIFIED '
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
TA RZG. 77/1763
Date: MAR 197Pgy: 0/'/
ISAR PAST/AFRICA BRANCH "
. OFFICE OF REPOWS AND-FE:MATES
CENTRAL IrritucpicE AGENCY
OirerltET
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Por, Week f:nding
, 28 December 191;8
z
? GREECE
-Concentrated gaerriila:attaekot The strong guerrilla attack on Eardhitta,
4 provincipi cacital in lhessaly, Wet the guerrillas heavy casualties .
but de=nstrated once again both the Creek Armyts failure to take proper
.nee tif-intelliance and planningandthe guerrillas' skillful employment
.of available in and,reapona. The guerrillas have recently reorganized.
? along divisional lines, and the icardhitsa operation appears to hate been
the first real teat of the reorganisation. They presumably have the -
? Capability of isolating and inflietinn similar punishment on other towns..
in thd plainss but whether, they can continue to take such heavy caSualties
. is problematical. Nevertholpss, other spectacular attacks will probably:.
be-made.before the end of the year to celebrate the first anniversary of ?
the .free" governments :which wan formed last 4hristmas0 In addition to
J: more concentrated attacks by the guerrillas,. increased sabotage -is expected,-
-
in the Cities, where (to the great concern of party leaders)' the militant -
Communist effort has lagged behind that in the mountains. Rebel -saboteurs
are now reported to be infiltrating thecitiesto bolster the.local
orgenizatione in carrying cut -assassinations and other terroristic acts*
VOLIII Re 0
TUMMY
?
.Saviet warships through _the Straitst TurkiShrSoviet relations will be
confronted rith a new source of strain in mid-January, when the old
battleehip 0eILIO CESARE and three smaller vessels in the first continL
kent of Italian warships awarded to the usam as reparations-flare scheduled
to bet0 movement to SoVint Black Sea'ports byway of the Straits. The ,.
.Turks are naturally most reluctant to have substantial additions to the
'2oViet Bleat: Sea fleet come -through Turkish territorial waters,. and al-,
though.they are not likely to offer forcible resistance to the movement
of the ex-Italian vessels they will probably look out for any legitimate
device which could be used to deny them passage. 'Should transit be
attempted Under the .1-trifles flag, the Turks would certainly protest ?
?vilsorouslybit the basis of the provisions of tile Montreux Convention of.
1.936 which severely limitmpeacetime pansage of warships flying the flags
of.countriee not bordering the .Black Sea. .Even if the ex-Italian ships
are delivered under the Soviet flagfthe Turks will probably insist on.
meticulous observance of the :Montreux rube, althougn they are not likely.
to go so far as to invoke-Articles-20 And 21, These articles permit
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Turkeys on declaring itself to be under itiainent threat of wars to
exercise full control, over the paasag: of any warships through the
Ctraits, subject to overruling by a rstjority of the Montreux signatories
'and by a two-thirds majority of the now-defunct Council of the League
of Mtions.
SYRIA
Amitin Cabinet finally foncads After two weeks* effort and several
tifilures S,,,vria at last her a government. The composition of the new
?Cebinntis at fellows: Prime hiniatcr Alialid Azns Foreign Affair's?
? LUente; Vuhttin &razi? Public Instruction; Adel Azmeh, Interior;:
Aimed **leis Justice, Health, Social Pffairs; !.iohammed Ayish, Agriculture;
Hassan Jabbara, Finance; Runein Sehnnoui, National Economy; "Majd
Jabiri, Public 1.Vorks.,
. ? ?
The mein impression given by the group is that the old guard is
" still in the saddlee ? The Populists, the reform party, are not repre-
- :Bente& Several of the new cabinet have boon in previous governmentss
e.g. AZin9 Barest... Jabbara.. Thera are tome new face.s, it is trues but
none that give cause for optimism regarding it.more enlightened and
.liberal policy. Sekuaaouis for -example, is art extrer.ely wealthy industri?
alist with. wide business interests; it would be naive to think that as
? Minister of Notional Economy he is prapred to support social legisla-
tion which might adversely affect his enterprises.,
?
The life of AzraIs government should be directly proportional to its
success in coping with AyriaIs manifold internal difficulties. If it .
proves incapable of dealing uith. the present. financials economic, and
political tangle, public resentment, suncorted by the Populists, wil?l
'inevitably force its resignation.
/EAR
. ? .:
Iraqi Government may resign: Indications are increasing that the present ?
'Iraqi Government, headed by Masahiro. Pachachi? feels thatit has reached
the end of the road, One report.statee that Pachachi already has made
one request to resign, but that the. Regent retuned his permissionIt
? is likely that the Prime minister's pext,offer to quit rill- be accepted,
since the present political and entitle:hie -iisruntiOn of the country make
it improbable that he can retain public confidence0 .
? As usual, bazaar rtuaors regarding his possible successor are already
circulating. Among those mentioned have been All. Jawdats Omar Madinat.,
Nuri Said, and (mirabile dictu) feleh Jabre ? There is the very definite
likelihoods however? that-Iraq-may eacaeriencs the same difficulties that
Syria is now going through in. its attempt to form 'a stable cabinet. Con-
thinly the groundswell of popular unrest in the Arab world threatens to
SECREr
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4SEter
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' dierupt the pattern of rule by old-line pSeesional politicians. The
progressive military, economic, and diplomatic deterioration of the
country will unquestionably make it nicheard for them to maintain the?
thesis that the vibration of Iraq lies in their retention of control,
f
SentiZent for a rapprochement with, the UR may be growing, The .
nentiOn of Nuri Said and Saleh Jabr, both of whom were active in the
? unpopular Portsmouth Treaty negotiations, suggests that Iraq may regret
. having dropped. the UK as pilot particularly in view of the stoney timese
? that lie ahead, ?
IRAN
?
Foreign Office shakeup: The replacement of Nonni Eefandari by All -
geranat as 'rants Foreign Minieter seould do much to emooth the course
of Iranian-US relations. Under Fsfandaris, who appeared to bora. master-
ful procrastinator and unfriendly to the US, the Foreign Office repeatedly
? preeented the US Embassycwith irritating and inexplicable delay's even
on Matters which had agreed upon at the top level.. Esfandari
as head of lrants UN delegation, failed to present'. theSecurity Council
with data on recent Soviet-Iranian relations, although both the Shah and ;
the Prime Minister nad assented to US iecoeeendations to that effect, The
US hue still to receive official permission to open a consulate at
-
Meshed, although the issue was raised in February 1948 and Iran 5s 'Consent
given tentatively sone tine age. Negotiations over renewal of the 'US e
Military Mission Agreement have now dragged on past' the formal deadline .
for subwission of proposed revisions, 21 feemberg although previously
the Shah, the 'Chief of Staff, and the tat Minister had informally agreed
.to reneral of the agreement without cubstaniial changes, Rekmat.has -
the:reeutatiOn of being friendly to the US. Moreover he ewe replaced
the under secretary of foreign affairs, and several other career officials
generally considered to be biassed against the US.
INDIWAKIETAN
,
I I
Inter-dominion conference: The successful outcome of the inter-dominion
conference at New Delhi watch ended on lh December indicates that the
Kashmir dispute conetitutes_at present the only real barrier to coopera-
tion between (Media Ind Pakistan, thile the two dominions have kept alive
the,poesibility of drastic developments regarding Kashmir by the mutual.
suspicion' and lack of frankness which bath have continued to manifest
.on the subject, their representatives at the Net Delhi eenference, con- ?
fining themselves to a number. of miscellaneous secondary issees, succeeded
in removing various points of friction between the two dominions and were.
-11g5i1;77-7
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able to report a nsubstantial measure of agreementu on the financialp
economic; and refugee problems they tackled. Zn Kashmir active min..
tery6perations are currently being hold up because Of snow; and India
hao persistently denied reports that it plans to launch a new offensive*
..Mearatilep- the UN Kaehmir Commission has tent of its menbere to
'110?blhi and Karachi to explain to the two.governments its latest est
Of formal teComendatione. India 'and Pakistan are reported to be some
that more receptive to the.Commissionts latest proposals than to Previous
ones, but there le still no assurance that either government till :
'accept them.
TOTED El BREF
?
The effOrto to improve 1.iu cw?B tian relations recentlynade by the
. ling and other high Egip fl ci. .a s eve ? an invalidated at least
temporarily by a statement to the Senate by Prime Minister Nolcrashyp
reiterating the'goVernmentls intention nocto*resume.treaty negotiations
with the UK until British troops are.completelyevacuated from Effiptian
. territory. a . 0 0 . . 6 0 0 0 The increasing political activity in Israel
thich has.been,going.on in preparation for the general elections on- .
? 25.jannarytas been marked principally by the struggle-between MAPAI,
'the moderate socialist:labor-party of Premier BenrChriong andILARAMp.its
'.extreme socialist ancEnere pro-Soviet rival, The combined list of the
all.Hebrew-OpimunistePartiand of the Arab-Jewish Israeli Communist '
- 'Party is not expected to win more than three percent of.the?total vote,
The Communists. attempted to getIMAplig to draw up a joint slate. with -
them but were firmly-turned down on the ground that they *ere more
.Communist than they were 2ionist0 0 . . Jewish end tion.
from POlend and Rumania to Palestine is now completely uiidirthe control
of the two governments .which have ordered the closing of Jewish Agency.
offices in theiecounthese...a. 0 ..,e0. Current British efforts
?to open alconsular office at. Tel Avie (in addition? the present office
a Mr a) furnish concrete ovi once. hat the UK is-seeking a Way to improve
its relations with Israel even though it has no present intention ,of
_rScognising'the Provisional Government of Israel.,d 0 . 0 r: 0 .
Syriarls continued failure to ratify its proposed agreement with the
Trans-Arabian Pipeline Company has forced 'company officials to consider
more seriously the lea of having an-Egyptiantather than a 'Lebanese ,
tenuinuse possibility previously raised prirarilyes.a.bluff to goad
Syria into action. Preliminary surveys indicate that the use of an.
Egyptian terminus would have ranyadvantages but would increase the cone
? ?struetion cost by perhaps 960 -million. Construction. of the line from
the Arabian end is continuingp? since considerable mileage can be added
'before a decision regarding the terminus will be. necessary, a a .
.
? ?. d'. 2he civil disobedience movement. of the, militantly Hindu .
organizationc HSSS(Rashtriya.Smayam Sevak Sanghl; indicates that the groug
remains.capa le of becoming a serious threat to the Indian National Congress
Partyp even though -it was outlawed at the time of Csndhics death. At ?
least 7,000 RSSS?members were arrested as a result of the civil disobedience
.?
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