NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 11 AUGUST 1948 VOL. III NO. 31

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010015-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: August 11, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010015-3
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DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77 1763
Date: 3
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLICANCE SUSLARI
For Week Ending
11 August 19h8
VolDIII Noon
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NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SMART Vol.III No.31
For ?leek Ending
11 August 19)48
ORLECE
The Greekhaving compressed the 7,000 guerrillas in the Grammos area
against thnbanian frontier, is now poised for the final push of its
eight-week-old offensive. Guerrilla organization has not yet collapsed
in the face of mounting rebel casualties, as is indicated by the fact that
the double envelopment which the Greek Army has just completed failed to
result in the wholesale capture of prisoners or materiel. The Markos
forces are expected to fight desperately to defend their remaining foot-
hold on Greek soil. Nevertheless, although the guerrillas benefit by
inner lines of communication and shortened supply routes, the weight of
manpower which the Greek Army can now bring to bear along a greatly shortened
battle front should finally prove decisive. The Albanian frontier now
constitutes the only certain escape route for the guerrillas, although by
accepting them Albania would be violating international law and a specific
injunction of the UN General Assembly. It is probable that the ON Special
Committee on the Balkans will warn Albania to that effect, so that if
guerrilla forces driven over the border were later to reappear in Greece,
Albanian responsibility would be more Clearly established,
TURKEY
Protracted maneuvers to replace the aging Maximos as Oecumenical Patriarch
of the Greek bithodox Qmrch appears finally to be succeeding, For more
than a year a large number of the Metropolitans within the Holy Synod has
attempted to force Marinas from the Patriarchate, which represents titular
leadership over Greek Orthodox congrgations throughout the world. The
anti4taximos Metropolitans have addressed frequent letters to the Greek
Government on the subject and have repeatedly called for convocation of
tae full Synod to compel his ,resignation. Every time their plans were
made known to Maximos; however, the old man reacted violently, and twice
he had to be dissuaded from actually dissolving the Synod. In the past
Maximos has been aided by the Greek Ambassador to Turkey, who on occasion
berated the conspirators and advised them to request forgiveness of the
'Patriarch. It now appears that even the Greek Ambassador no longer hopes
to delay the PatriachIs resignation, and its submission is expected to take
place in the next few days.
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The most likely victor in the patriarchal elections which will follow
within two or three veeks of Maximost resignation remains Athenagoras, the
Metropolitan of North and South America. The Greek Government has long
considered Athenagoras the most desirable successor to Maxine, and within
the last week the Turkish Government has indicated that it has no objections
to him. Both governments feel that Maxims has been incapable of dealing
with recent Soviet efforts to use the Church as a political instrument,
With the powerful support of these two governments, Athenagoras is virtually
assured of obtaining the Patriarchate, One remaining practical difficulty,
however, is the fact that the Patriarch must be a Turkish citizen. Turkey
is reluctant to confer citizenship on Athenagoras until the preliminary
arrangement for his election are completed,
PALESTINE
Israeles growing consciousness of its military strength may lead to the
resumption of the Palestine war in the near future. The Jews have expanded
their territorial claims and appear prepared to back up these claims with
armed force9 even in defiance of the UN. The PGI (Provisional Government
of Israel) demands not only the territory allocated to the Jews by the UN
partition recommendation but also the purely Arab areas which the Jewish
forces have conquered. Moreover, the PGI has failed to cooperate with UN
Mediator Bernadotte, particularly as regards to the demilitarization of
Jerusalem, and is reportedly working out plans with Jewish extremist forces
to capture the whole city. The Arabs, although professing bitterness over
the "imposed" truce, do not show any strong or united inclination to resume
fighting, and some leaders (like Abdullah) have expressed the hope that a
compromise with the Jews might be worked out. They will, however, despite
their military weakness, attempt to defend the areas they now occupy9
particularly the Old City of Jerusalem, Although their certain defeat and
probable expulsion from Palestine would temporarily solve the Palestine
issue, such absolution" would raise other issues in the Middle East of far
greater potential danger to world peace and US security,
ARAB STATES
The minori stand taken b S and Ira in the Arab League, in which
t y oppose acceptance o the- curren UN cease?fire order for Palestine,
is apparently drawing these two countries closer together. Reports from
both Baghdad and Damascus indicate that several meetings between representa?
tives of these countries have already taken place, with additional visits
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scheduled for the near future. The Iraqi Propaganda Chief has spoken of
Syrian hopes for "closer Syro-Iraqi relations based on military and political
union." Damascus newspapers also hint at the possibilities of a military
alliance. The suggestion of political union is interesting. At first
glance the idea of a Greater Syria without King Abdullah of Transjordan
bears some resemblance to a performance of "Hamlet" without the Prince. It
must be remembered, however, that one of the greatest stumblingblocks in
the furtherance of the Greater Syria plan has been Syrian distrust of
Abdullah himself. If this factor is removed, or at least pushed far into
the background, it may well happen that a realization of their common
political and economic interests will bring about a significant strengthen-
ing of Syro-Iraqi ties.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
The di .ute over yderabadts accession to India appears to have reached
de 'ma% g poin the Nizam s ma.: conci iatory gestures, but he is
apparently controlled by extremist elements in his own government which
are determined not to accede to India. Moreover, certain leaders have re-
sponded to Indian threats with the assertion that Hyderabadts army is fully
prepared to fight. Indian Army units have already occupied two villages
in Hyderabad, and the Indian Minister for Home Affairs has recommended that
British nationals be evacuated from the state immediately. Unless the
Nizam accepts a peaceful accession, it is likely that India will settle the
dispute by force. Such action on the part of India would probably be
followed by intensified communal discord and a consequent widening of the
breech between India and Pakistan.
In Kashmir military action has been reduced to patrol activity, Although
nedITRTilkilan nor Pakistan forces have withdrawn from their positions,
both governments mill probably postpone further action until the UN
Kashmir Commission has published the details of its cease-fire proposal.
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/07/22 : CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010015-3