NOTES ON FRENCH AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS, 1952/53

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A003900120003-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 1, 1950
• Content Type: MISC

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NOTES ON FRENCH AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS, 1952/53
Although French agriculture can plan an important role in
helping not only France but Western Europe attain viability, progress
toward this objective has been hesitant. Slowness in reparcelling the
land, increasing the effectiveness of the extension service, and
utilizing French agricultural resources to the full have so far
held France back from achieving prewar agricultural production levels.
While progress continues in some direction, it is iii1ikely that French
production and export goals for 1952/53 will be met.
I. Background
During the 19301s, France was virtually self-sufficient in bread
grains, meat and milk products, but dependent on imports for fats and
oils and livestock feed. French agricultural exports were largely
limited to wine, liquors, canned goods, and in years of surplus, wheat.
The total French agricultural exports paid for a moderate proportion
of agricultural imports. Domestic consumption levels, both quantity
and quality wise, were probably inferior to Northern Etropen
countries, but statistics are weak on this point because of the
under-reporting by French farmers.
Despite the fact that French land fertility, rainfall and
temperature conditions are among the most favorable to agriculture in ?
Europe, French agricultural performance fell below that of her
Western European neighbors during the 19301s. Yields were lower,
ast
fertilizer was less and scientific farm management and mechanization
A
lagged behind that of her northern neighbors.
Many of the basic difficulties persist at the present time.
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The organization of the land.into farming units is considered poor*
As much as one-fifth of the land is cultivated by farm units of less
than 10 hectares. Each farm unit frequently consists of many/nn -
contiguous parcels and approximately half the land requires reparcelling
in order toechieve optimum economic farm units. France is still less
mechanized that the U.K., Italy, Netherlands, and Switzerland. Fertilizer
use continues to be among the lowest in Europe. The French agricultural
plan is grappling with these and other agricultural problems.
II. French Agricultural Goals
During the period of total national planning after the war, the
Monnet plan :for agriculture was borne. The plan, which emerged from
grass root sentiment and top level thinking, envisaged an increase in
production of 25 percent over 1938* Table I shows some of the French
agricultural goals as recently reformulated. As can be seen from
the table, production rises were envisaged in all items. (except oats,
which were to be reduced because of the:expected decrease in horse
D'opulation) primarily byihcreasing yields. Yields were to be raised
bygreatly increasing application of fertilizer (see table-II)
reparcelling the land, mechanizing, using scientific methods, and
increasing farm facilities. The incentive to these improvements was
to be provided by government assurances of steady markets, price supports,
and loans at low rates of interest. The total investment outlay over
a four year period was to beeround 500 billion francs.
The agricultural plan has been under constant review, and
goals and planned methods have been altered in line with changed economic
conditions. Table III presents the capital investment plan as of 1949,
but this program is being steadily outmoded.. At the present time,
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the agricultural ministry is thinking in terms of expanding agriculture
more than previously planned, in, view of the foreseen difficulties
in marketing industrial products abroad. .
The primary objective of the agricultural policy. was to convert
the pre-war agricultural deficit on the international accounts into a
substantial surplus, (313 million dollars by 1952/53), although the
objective of increasing consumption was not lost sight of. Export
goals were placed at:
1,500,000 tons of wheat
120,000 tons of meat
21,000 tons of butter
21,000 tons of cheese
plus traditional exports.
III. Evaluation of Plan and Pro ress to Date
Genez!al
The role that could be played by French agriculture in
strengthening the economic and political organization of the Western world
is only now being fully understood. In view of the probable oversupply
of steel, machinery, chemicals, and other industrial products in
relation to the markets open to Western European countries, and in
view of the undersupply of agricultural goods in the U.K., and
Trizone, an expansion of French agricultural production is probablr
called for. In order to fulfill its role as an agricultural supplier,
however, France may need to find ways to lower the foreign sales price
of agricultural goods.
French planning to date in agriculture has not been revolutionary,
although it may appear ambitious in view of the prewar French trends*
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The yields planned are not large when compared to the achievements
of Belgium, Netherlands, U.K. etc. The amount of planned fertilizer
use is moderate compared to the quantity which could be used with
profit to the farmer. A considerable amount of potentially tillable soil
will still be left unused, ad grasslands will be used only imperfectly.
The revolutionary implications of hybrid corn are not completely
appreciated as yet. The part that could be played by permanent
grassland, when properly cared for is also slighted. -
B. Techniques
Reparcelling of land is woefully behind the Monnet Plan schedule.
Reparcelling, which has been going onfbr 100 years in France is a time
consuming process, in all events. With the present administrative staffs,
it is expected that only a small part of the land will be reparcelled
by 1952/53.
Fertilizer use is far behind schedule. See Table A-7 in the
French Data Book. Fertilizer consumption in 1948-49 crop year was about
equal to that in 1947-48, despite the greater availabilities of fer-
tilizer. The consumption trend continues poor in the last few months.
Factors responsible are the high cost of fertilizer, the lack of market
assurances for agricultural goods, the lack of an adequate extension
service toteach the value of fertilizer use and the shortage of funds
in the hands of the farmer. Although the government is considering lowering
the tax on fertilizer products to reduce their costs, only slow progress
is expected in fertilizer use.
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?
Tractor production is now substantially below the peak production
reached in March 1949, and farmers are purchasing few tractors. The
French 1952 goal of 200,000 tractors on the farms may well be too
high. Because of the slow pace of reparcelling, the opportunity for
tractor use is still limited in France, and the French farmers frequently
prefer to retain their horses even after purchasing tractors in view of
uncertainty in gasoline supply and price.
The Extension Service is being expanded in 1950, but American
observers believe that the Extension Service should be expanded still
more. It is believed that the quality and size of the Extension Service
will remain inferior to French requirements.
- Price supports continue on several agricultural commodities (grain,
beets, oil bearing plants) and the levels will undoubtedly be raised in
line with cost conditions. Prices cannot obviously be raised more
quickly than the general increase in worker's income without causing labor
antagonism.
In summary, it appears that progress in implementing the agricultural
program is very slow.
C. Production, Yields, and Acreage
Production of cultivated crops is highly dependent on weather
conditions, and accurate predictions on production cannot be made. Live-
stock and dairy production is somewhat less dependent on weather. Out..
side of weather, the second major determinant of production is the
probably market conditions. The internal market conditions will depend
largely upon the growth of industrial production, since that factor will
determine the purchasing power of the city dwellers. This rise will tend
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to be quite moderate. The external market depends largely on the economic
organization of Europe. OIR feels considerable progress will be made in
the direction of increasing trade among the Western European countries
through the formation of the En regional industrial and agricultural pooling
agreements, and the dollar shortage. Considering total agricultural pro.
duction, it is believed, on the basis of present trends, that the index of
agricultural production will not greatly exceed 110 in 1952/53 (1938 m 100)
compared to 96 in 1949. Baring bad weather, domestic food consumption should
rise equally with industrial production, or at about the rate of 3 percent
per year.
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TABLE I
THE HECTARE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION OBJECTIVES FOR 1952
OF THE AGRICULTURE PROGRAM AND PERFORMANCE PREWAR AND 1949
(Surface in thousands of hectares)
Meld in quintals per hectare)
(Production in thousands of quintals)
Indies
1 8
1949
Estim te
1 2
1934-38 2
100)
1
Wheat
Surface
Yield
?roduction
5,224
15.6
81,432
4,223
1.3
80,820
4,660
20.2
95,000
80.0
'21.2
96.9
89.2-
129.5
116.7
Oats .
Surface
3,278
2,436
2,350
72.5
71.7
, Yield
13.9
13.2
17.1'
95.0
123.0
PrOdUction
45,717'..:32,250
40,120
68.4
87,7
Barley
Surface
742
896
1,250
118.5
168.5
Yield
14.1
16.0
18.3
114.2
129.8
Production
10,741
14,310
22,900
131.5
213.2
Oil Seeds
Surface
15
185
246
123.3
164.0
Yield
12
10
14
83.3
116.7
Production
180
1,857
3,450
1031.7
1916.7
Grassland
Surface
3,027
3,075
3,300
101.6
109.0
Yield
35.5
29.1
44.8
82.0
126.2
Production (Hay)107,552
89,402
148,000
83.1
137,6
Temporary Grassland
Surface 557
978
950
175.6
170.6
Yield 30.1
21.0
35.8
69.8
118.9
Production (Hay) 17,396
20,563
34,000
118.2
195.4
Forage
Surface
709
767
860
108.2
121.3
Yield
32.8
25.5
48.4
77.7
147.6
Production (Hay) 23,912
19,577
41,500
81.9
173.5
Sugar Beets
Surface
318
391
400
122.9
125.8
Yield
276
227
307
82.2
111.2
Production
87,858
88,686
123,000
100.9
140.0
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ABLE II (continued)
Indica
1949
I t
(1934-38
100
? ?
1 2
Milk . .
Production
146
170
-a
116.4
Meat
Production
1,700
1$942
2$200
114.2
129.4
Oils and Fate
Production
325
470
540
144.6
166.1
'
Sugar
Production
767
750.
1,300
97.4
169.5
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TABLE II
CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZER
(In Millions of Tons)
Actual Cons= tion
nedConmtjon
i938-39
19L6-h7
19A7-48
].948-h.9
1949.50 l95..5L
Nitrogen (N)
.2180000
180,000
222,000
300,000
340,000
450,000
Phosphate (P205)
425,000
325,000
418,000
500,003
600,000
800,000
Potassium (K20)
293,000
305,000
366,250
450,000
600,000
700,000
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TABLE III
NET INVESTMENTS PLANNED FOR AGRICULTURE 1949...1952
(Billions of francs)
I. For the Farm
Consolidation of Land Parcels
Land Improvement
Roads
Rural Construction
Additions to Water Supply
Electrification
8
25
31
40
15
Forest Equipment 20
Extension Services 10
Biological Equipment 55
Purchase of Agri. Machines 255
Cooperatives (milk stations, 31
fruit stations, silos, sugar
refineries, others)
II. Equipment of Industries
Milk
Slaughter houses
Sugar Refineries
Others
Food industries
Refrigerating Equipment
III. Other (Nitrogen Fertilizer,
Agricultural Machinery)
499
9
16
30
3
28
L.14
100
610
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