VIOLENCE DURING PHILIPPINE ELECTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 29, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 14, 1949
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29 :
DIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8 aileberri6 ?
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14 October 1949
MEISCRANDUM TO DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
SUBJECT: Violence during Philippine Elections
CONCLUSIONS
1. In response to your verbal request for information con-
cerning Huk uprisings in the Philippinesj the following is
submitted:
A. Although demonstrations and violence involving
Communist-led Huks or other dissident elements are expected
throughout the Philippine Republic before and during the 8
November national elections, a general uprising is con-
sidered unlikely.
b. US citizens in Manila may be accidental victims
of violence associated with Philippine factional disputes
both in demonstrations before the election and at the polls.
This same risk is faded by US military personnel in the
Chrk Field area of Central Luzon.
2. Philippine Government officials may be injured or
killed in demonstrations in Manila but any attempt at a
local coup is improbable and would, in any event, be
unsuccessful.
Document No.
NO C=GE in Cle:Le.
DICLA=S-D
Clacs. C:HI.:j.13; TS
L7i 77
Auth: LTS. 7T/S7S3
Date: )7 13y:
ORE:D/FE:D/Sti
Distribution:
WI orig and one
Central Records
Director's file
D/Stv/
DiFE
AD/ORE
puty sistant Director
Reports and Estimates
by Amosh1 eel
-
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STAT
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GENERAL
c i 130 21
The appromahignattonal elections in the Philippine Republic, in
which three rival political factions are bitterly involved, will be
accompanied by outbreaks of lawlessness throughout the area. Illicit
firearms are plentiful.in the Republic and the strong sentiments connected
with the election contest make sporadic incidents of violence 4 cer-
tainty. No general uprising in anticipated, however.
PROSPECTS IN MANIL4
While violence and demonstrations both before election day and at
the polls are probable in Manila, the local police, recently reinforced
by troops o1the Philippine Constabulary, are believed capable of keep-
ing ouch incidents in hand. The possibility remains, however, that US
bystanders may find themselves accidentally caught in the crossfire,
although there is no reason to believe that the US personnel or property
will be selected targets for violence* Some Philippine Government
officials may be injured or killed either in demonstrations or as a
result of politically?motivated assassinations. While it is possible that
the elections could sort/ as the signal for an attempted cup aimed at the
Government's Manila headquarters, likelihood of such an action appears
remote* The Philippine Government, disturbed both by Communist support
for the major opposition candidate, Jose Laurel, and by reports of in-
creased Communist4ed Huk infiltration into Manila, has recently under?
ttiken a sorban of raids in an effort to break up Huk concentrations,
prevent terrorism during the elections and uncover any subversive plots.
To date, the Manila raids have not resulted in the capture of Huk leaders,
although the authorities claim to have unearthed documents encouraging
a popular uprising against the Government. Any such coup attempt, it is
believed, would be extremely short-lived, since it would lack popular
support, and since Government troops would be able to restore authority
quickly.
PROSPECTSOUTSIDE MANILA
Simultaneous with the Government raidn in Manila, a general anti-Huk
campaign has been launched in central Luzon, the terrorists' traditional
stronghold. No reports of the success or failure of the Government's
provincial campaign have yet been received. US military personnel in the
Clark Field area of central Luzon have Ione been exposed to Ruk raidt
and have been robbed and embuthed en route to and from the airfield.
Such attacks are expected to continue but there are no indications that
they will be stepped up because of the impending election. Elsewhere in
the Philippines, the likelihood of incidents involving US citizens is
remote.
14 October 1949
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CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
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SEP 1947 3 \
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'1,1 __Executive Registry
1
14 October 2.949
IISDORANGUN TO DIRECTOR OF CEBTRAL ItrEt BEIGE=
SUBJECT: Violence during Philippine Elections
gam=
1. In response to your verbal request for information concerning
tale:uprisings in the Philippines, the following is submitted:
a. itiiiiWilSonstrations and violence involving Communist-
led Hake ? other dissident elements are expected hroughout the
Phili ' ?e Republic before and dura.: the 8 Nevem national elec-
tions general uprising is consider-. ewl43rexy,
13. S.41.1tigan in &tilt& may
ace associated witg`Ph- mo
ions before the election a
44_by CSamilitarliersonnel in the C k Field area of G tr
zon. a
e accidental vie
on-
2. Philippine Government offici- s may be injured or lied
in demonstrations in Camila but any attenptl at a local MB is
improbable and mould, in any event, be nns?gcessfnl.
IVIERAL
Declassified in Part-Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
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I
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
. Zogr lit ' ;so Nse
GENERAL
The approaching national elections in the Philippine Republic, in which
three rival political factions are bitterly involved, will be accompanied by
outbreaks of lawlessness throughout the area. Illicit firearms are plentiful
in the Republic and the strong sentiments connected with the election contest
make sporadic incidents of violence a certainty. No general uprising is
anticipated, however.
PROSPECTS IN MANILA
While violence and demonstrations both before election day and a: the
polls are probable in Manila, the local police, recently reenforced by troops
of the Philippine Constabulary, are believed capable of keeping such inci?
dents in hand. The possibility remains, however, that US bystanders may find
themselves accidentally caught in the crossfire, although there is no reason
to bebive that the US personnel or property will be selected targets for
violence. Some Philippine Government officials may be injured or killed
)410.1=
arg:
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2rI13/07/29 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
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either in demonstnations or as the result of politically-motivated aseaesina-
tions. While it is possible that the elections could serve as the signal for
an attempted coup aimed at the Governmentss Manila headquarters, likelihood
of such an action appears remote. The Philippine Government, distmbed both
by Communist support for the major opposition candidate, Jose Laurel, and by
reports of increased Communist-led Huk infiltration into Manila, has recently
undertaken a series of raids in an effort to break up Risk concentrations,
prevent terrorism during the elections and uncover any subversive plots. To
date, the Manila raids Mn not resulted in the capture of Huh leaders, although
the authorities claim to have unearthed documents encouraging a popular up-
rising against the Government. Any such coup attempt, it is believed, would
be extremely short-lived, since it would lack popular support and since Goveern-
ment troops would be able to restore authority qzickly.
PROSPECTS OUTS/DE MANILA
Simultaneous with the Government raids in Manila, a general anti-Huh
campaign has been launched in central Luzon, the terrorists' traditional
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
- -
iclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29:
-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
sttonghold.
EStregail-eaelPaire-haryirtgarr
Field ea of central Luzon have
been robbed and anibus
are expected to con
up because of the
3 ?
ed.
S mil t personnel in the Clark
1
but there
o auk raids and have
he aitfield. Such attacks'
cations that they will be stepped
ending elect o
Libood of inci ents involving
C)
c)
Elsewher
the Philippines/ the like-
titens is remote,
lao au so 13 24
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/29: CIA-RDP78-01617A000800040001-8
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rifeLYE, 01 ftEratTS AND Wilitth
S. C4 'talOW.16:
&sada; Taniftrasism
Date' 14 Oot 49
To: Eylm
From; Staff Intelligence Division, Projects Planning ce_V?
Subject:POssibility of aggravated Hukbalahap disturbances in the
Philippine islands 4
algal2S2 r
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&Wall
to evaluate reports and to estimate the coneequenees of
crenated Hukbalehap disturbances in the Philippine islands
, jam,' The request is made on the basis of Contain OBI diapatches.
age
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