A COMMUNICATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00149R000500420021-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: January 14, 1964
• Content Type: NSPR

'W !Sl1IN,iT YA md For Release 2004/02/10: CIA-RD 75-00149R000500420021-1
Jo a-aas product in the Ia4t two years
~n'_- was less than 2.5 per cent.
ri
lie a of little showing- The eco:rornic
'~~r Ihei.r work contin.nelii., slowing down, grinding to a
i,,,, r-;rir work continicelli, stop. If we are patient it may
1,o,id and drrn co;'ithz: c!ir, yet go backwn Js. 'v.'r~a;, f.,'iry
rru.t,:i than , their knorritiq " then for Western countries to
"xtend to the Soviet Union
:iuote, of course, from I,c- large export credits! I learn
l; it+,fcs, with an assist.-from from the New York Times
phrase, they have come to our
i rscne. At the last moment
they have made for its a sov-
s^re;gn remedy against the
fearful creeping malady of
peace. I, for one, have never
doubted they would meet the
emergency.
There are some, to be sure,
,who do not share my commit-
iii'iit. Unkind things have
sir spoken of the CIA. A
they are. And worse.
academics; parvenu
do it: yourself revo-
r~- half-baked ,philosophers;
troublemakers; incom-
gietcnt military planners; in-
i' rn;ii busybodies; hirers of
tt.c largest collection ever as-
si mbled of foreign dingalings,
psychotic patriots, and second
rurdcr ers. 1 protest.
.aid of an 18th Cen-
?:r= ician that it was his
io be perpetually tic," have been used. The aca-
roistal;en. Let the CIA record demic critics have been un-
speak. The U-2 affair, the, able to contain their astonish-
e)vert.i,row of the governments ment, the Times relates, at the
of Guatemala and Iran, the CIA's reversal of their awn po-
i,ay of Figs, she Viet-Nam so- sition, for as recently as last
I.hion, the break with Cam- year they suggested a 6 to 7
tocha. From strength to per cent annual growth of the
atrength, a highway of tri- Soviet economy. Fiddlesticks.
r.n;phs_ Things and actions are what
And now the crown, a time- they are, and the conse-
lv, impeccable analysis of the quences of them will be what
conomic miseries of the So- they will be: why then should
Or't. Union. There have been we desire to be deceived? The
serious crop failures: in par- CIA men' stick to the facts;
tioular, a disastrous drop in their appraisals are supple
grain production. As a result, and responsive. They may
3.hc CJA estimates, the growth change tomorrow-and a good
of the Soviet gross national thing too.
Lion will use this argument
a linchpin of its wheel of for-
eign policy. It may,,not be ob-
vious how this ;j;bes with the
President's fervently ex-
pressed desire in his State-of-
the-Union Message to dissolve
the hatreds of the, world, to be
"bold in our search for new
agreements which can enlaa? o
the hopes of all while violat-
ing the interests of none." But
high policy is alw, . '= myste-
rious and there are stranger
ways of gaining a people's
confidence than by kickiilg
them in the belly when it is
empty. The importirt thing is
to make clear to t:....t Z .,.
for their own good.
Amor vincit om.nia.
It has come to my notice
that the CIA statistics are not
everywhere fully accepted.
STAT
Moreover, what diffe,,cnr e
can a few per cent make'? The
noied Princeton economist,
.-_
..
Oskar 11'I01'get'.5t...t ?110 ....':1
`:,c ;ale john von Neumann
wrote the classic work on
game theory) points out in
his well-known book, "On the
Accuracy of Economic Obser-
vations," that large-scale sta-
t.ictics are almost always "un-
rcli,,ble and misleading." Ilis-
tory is filled with examples.
It has been found, for in-
stance, by the historian llans
Dclbrueck that "if the Greek
claims regarding the strength '
of the Persians at Thermopy-
lae were true, there would not
even have been room for the
Persians to occupy the battle-
field," and, given the roads of
the time, the last Persian
troops would have just crossed
the Bosporus when the first
had already arrived in Greece.
Well, it may he said, these the assassin, were in some -
were Gnock statistics. Rut tiro neasure r-csponsibie for the
treds we [ell
'1"
h
d
,
a
Y.:c
Census Bureau, which in the tr:1ae
.'l C :naus recorded a sur- the hatrru; v.~e tolerat erl haul
prising number of widowaa cre,it.ed the eIin:,.', tonclucive t
14-year?old boys, does not do to this el ii deed But the nr-
much better; and our Agricul- nod of 'ontrition way; h.,=,[
tore Department in es';--...sting and certainly not sufficiontlY
('1111, own, not Soviet, crops, Prolonged for penance. %N 111111,
has been known to wander be a week or o we were rc..
(has 450 million and 380 mil- sured. Sundry .,ournaiist, r.:i,l
lion bushels, a margin even Pundits imparted to us thn
Mr. Estes e ?^ 'r: -us tidings that our ima;,e
My faith remains. The CIA 1 abroad is unimpaired,h:,: the
is doing a splendid Jo o, Be- essential "goodness" or ,% ncr-
sides, they mean well. One of ica (as o is di tmguished col-
the characters in Aldous Ilux- uninist described it) is ri,r,ver-
ley's "Point Counter Poinf' sally recognized, and that our
observes: "If you look up 'In- belovedness rating is now at a
telligence' in the new volumes historic high. I am no sur?
of the Encyclopaedia Britan- prised. We are loved because
pica, you'll find it classified we deserve to be loved. No bo-
under the following three reau or department of our
II , Government has More
man
Among university experts on
the Soviet economy, it is re\
ported, the CL,'-'s , cr:a1usians
have been "generally chal-
lenged." Such epithets as "ab-
,
heads: Intelligence, u
Intelligence, Animal; Intelli-
gence, Military. My stepfa-
ther's a perfect specimen of
Intelligence, Military." So is
the CIA. I am proud of them.
strengthened that i ir, a fi e, I
more deepened ghat alfce- i
Lion, more promoted the
g:;ad will or the c^::rmunity
of man than the r?'A.
Augurs, diviners, colicge' of
of self-examination and self- I reason, protector's of peace
reproach which followed after snd hail'
the assassination of Pre: dent JAMES 11. NEWMAN.
Kennedy, it was widely said Chevy Chase, Md.
that all of . us, , and not. V -
Approved For Release 2004/02/10 : CIA-RDP75-00149R000500420021-1