SECRET MEMO BY CIA ADMITS U.S. PUPPET IN VIETNAM IS LOSING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000300490065-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 65
• Publication Date: August 25, 1964
• Content Type: NSPR

Approved For Release 2000/08/2CI4RF9075-000
AUGUST 25o.1964
J 9 /
(2 3
1 R00(,300490065-1
A: SECRET MEMORANDUM by the CIA, which the Administration was com
pelled to make public over the weekend, admits that there "is serious doubt that victory.
c:an be won" in South Vietnam, and that "the situation remains very fragile."
The memorandum was writ-
ten by Willard Matthias, a "The counter-guerrilla effort
member of the CIA's Board of continues to flounder, partly be-
National Estimates, one of the cause Diem's successors have
highest units'in the organization. not yet demonstrated the lead-
Tne 50-page report, entitled ership and inspiration neces-
"Trends in the World Situation," sary."
was dated June 8. It was 'made The CIA document suggests as
public after the Administration an alternative U.S. policy the
learned that the Chicago Trib- continuation of "large-scale
une had secured a copy and was U.S. support" as the means of
planning to run excerpts from
it.
"No end appears in sight" for
the "guerrilla war in South
Vietnam (which) is in its fifth
year," the memo says.
It admits that the "Vietcong in
-the South, dependent upon their
own resources',' are "pressing
their offensive more vigorously
achieving a "prolonged stale-
mate." Even such a standoff is
possible only if "further politi-
cal deterioration within South
Vietnam is prevented," Matthias
wrote.
He projected the possibility of
"political evolution within the
country and developments upon
the world scene" leading to
than ever. "'some kind of negotiated settle-
The memorandum concedes ment based upon neutralization."
that ' the regime of Nguyen
Khanh holds no assurances of The Johnson Administration,
victory for the U.S. y however, rejected the proposal
"
"The political mistakes of the
Diem regime inhibited the ef-
.iective prosecution of the war,
'which is really more of a politi=
cal contest than a military op_.[
oration, and led to the regime's
destruction.
for "neutralization,
when it was
made several weeks ago by Pres-
ident Charles de Gaulle.
The memo's estimate of the
life-expectancy of the Khanh
government has been confirmed
in recent days by the rise in
student and Buddhist criticism
of his regime. On Saturday
nQarly 1,000 students met at the
Faculty of Sciences in Saigon
to protest against the dictatorial
decrees which Khanh put into',
effect on Aug. 7.
In a meeting with a group of i
student leaders on the same day;
Khanh refused to make any cone
cessions to their protests.
Henry Cabot Lodge, special'
envoy for President Johnson in;
the South Vietnam situation ar-1
rived in Brussels, Belgium, Sat
urday, on his tour of Western
Europe. He is seeking to rebuff
De Gaulle's initiative in respect
to Southeast. Asia, particularly;
his "neutralization" bid.
He is determined to sandbag,
the Western Allies into offering'.
even a minimum token support'
of U.S. intervention in South:
Vietnam.
Thus far, however, his maim
achievement has been enthusi-
asm but vague promises from
the Belgian government. Ind
Paris, where he began his' tour;
last Monday, he got a cold!
shoulder from De Gaulle aides.
Approved For Release 2000/08/26 : CIA-RDP75-00001 R000300490065-1 - 1