RUSSIA AND BERLIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000100190022-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2000
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 30, 1959
• Content Type: TRANS

Approved For Release 2000Me/i5'?dTA-RDP75-00001RO00100'
FOIAb3b '
!(Monday, March 30) 1959)
The foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization meet in Washington
on Thursday (April 2).
SEE DAILY )
SERVICE OF
MARCH 27. 1959:
"NATO OECEN-
N IAL." )
face rivaling anything in history without. compulsion from outside." It wov2el
follow that the race now is .not necessarily to the siror to the strong but
"IF THE WEST is resolute, then I believe that the Soviet Union -- by
ook or crook -- will be the one to back down." This estimate, made by the
eputy director of intelligeride for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in a
ittle publicized speech of-March 3, appears to be the most authoritative
ntelligence analysis-made public'as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
flies meet to discuss German reunification and tike Russian'threat to Ber]:n.
The speech, madefrom notes, and not carried by the press association
ires, was reported in the Columbia, S.C., The State.* Rober Amory, Jr.,
ssistant to C.I.A. Director Allen W. Dulles, told a University of South
arolina study group that the Soviet Union is not ready to risk a major nu-
lear war over Berlin, but that Soviet Premier Nikita.S. Khrushchev "expect:;
o force us to chicken out."
T} NEWSPAPER account of the talk has been confirm l x. by accuracy
ory.'He said that the Russians "haven't got what it takes. rationally to
?hallenge us this spring." The future remains in doubt, but, says Amory, in
the next 15 years the West faces."a race for leadership in the world again:'L
ilitant Communists with fervent faith."
The report of Amory's speech lends additional significance to-the statc-
ent made by President Eisenhower about the same time. In his press conference,
parch ll, the President said with great firmness: "We are certainly not going,
to fight a ground war in Europe."
Against the import of the. Amory speech, the President's statement mu:,t bc,
interpreted as indicating that the Western allies will not'back down on I'.cr'i.n
in the face'of a Russian Threat of nuclear war. The reasoning is that any :such
threat would be essentially, as Amory'has,"'.indicated, a bluff. Nonetheless, in
Amory's view, the Russians are negotiating from confidence. "The. goal," he
said, "is to take over Berlin (identified as a "needle" to the Reds because of
its high pro-Western living standards) and consolidate East Germany.,They
think they hold the trumps because their action is peaceful. It's a case of
'here we go, here they come'."
* * * * * * * * * * *
THE,0UTLOOK for the-long-range future is challenge. The Russians
the U. S. intelligence expert, "think in large gobs of time. '?_.:
says
Their aims in the 30-year periocT between X945 acid ] 9'5 -- gDa s' viewed
550 i on
f
d
uct o
4'
th confidence -- are a yearly gross national pro
i I annually to spend on armaments or on "external investments" -- such a: thE?i:'
"no strings" foreign aid policy toward nations, not actually allies or invited
Since Stalin's death, Amory reports, the Russians have made '.an about-
to become allies.
to the most determined, bearing always in mind
never tempt them into a major military path.xhile ie
AND BERLIN
Aooroved For Release 2000/06/13 : CIA-RDP75-00001 R000100190022`-3