ELECTION 1972

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP74B00415R000300140002-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: REPORT

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ELECTION 1972
Without presuming to try to out-guess the pollsters or the
pundits, it seems a safe bet that the Democrats will, continue to control
the House, and have a slightly better than even chance of controlling
the Senate. None of the members of our oversight subcommittees are
expected to be defeated but there are two or three who just possibly may
fall victim to upsets. One noticeable trend in the recent primaries has
been the success of relatively unknown youth against prominent older
members (Celler in New York, Aspin in Colorado, McMillan in South
Carolina, and George Miller in California). Thus McClellan (76) just
might be upset by Wayne Babbitt (43) and Margaret Smith (75) conceivably
could have trouble from William Hathaway (48), as could Alvin O'Konski (65)
who is being challenged by David Obey (34). Aside from O'Konski the
only member of either of our House subcommittees who seems to be running
scared is Bill Minshall (60) who the experts feel should have little trouble
from a 25-year-old city councilman, Dennis J. Kucinich. Despite the
strong prospect for a Democratic House, and probably a Democratic Senate,
one reputable political analyst, Louis Bean, points out that whenever in
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recent years the Presidential candidate has polled 57-58 percent of the vote,
his party has also won control of the Congress. In present circumstances,
however, the growing tendency towards ticket-splitting casts doubt upon
validity of this thesis.
In the event that the Democrats would gain control of the Senate,
leaving the House in the hands of the Republicans, the effect of this
divided control over the two houses might tend to result in a legislative
stalemate permitting passage of only the most noncontroversial legislation.
How such a situation would effect the Agency is unclear, but if one, and
certainly if both, house of Congress should be controlled by the same
party that control the White House we might have a better chance of
avoiding the role of "ham in the sandwich" which has become familiar in
recent years.
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SENATE APPROPRIATIONS
Intelligence Operations Subcommittee
Under Control of Democrats
John L. McClellan (D., Ark.), Chairmanl
John Stennis (D. , Miss.) Milton Young (R. , N. Dak.)
John Pastore (D. , R. I. )2 Margaret Chase Smith (R. , Me. )3
Bill Woodruff, Counsel4
1. Senator McClellan is up for reelection and should win easily. He was made
Chairman upon the death of Senator Ellender in July 1972. He is an
organized disciplinarian who operates in a probing fashion reflecting
his background as a prosecuting attorney. He probably will exercise
closer scrutiny of Agency activity than E llende r; however, his support
of the Agency should be strong.
2. Senator Pastore is a strong personality who chairs the Joint Atomic
Energy Committee and has been knowledgeable of important Agency
activities over the years. He should prove to be an active supporter
of the Agency and will undoubtedly follow Agency activities closely.
3. Senator Smith is up for reelection and should win a close race.
4. Senator McClellan may make some staff personnel changes but Bill
Woodruff should remain unless he elects to resign.
Under Control of Republicans
Milton Young (R., N. Dak.), Chairman
John Stennis (D. , Miss.) Margaret Chase Smith (R. Me. )2
John McClellan (D. , Ark.) I Gordon Allott (R. , Colo.)
Bill Woodruff, Counsel3
1. Should McClellan lose reelection (very doubtful), the next in seniority on
the Defense Subcommittee (from which the Intelligence Operations
Subcommittee members are chosen) is Warren Magnuson (D. , Wash. )
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(Cont' d)
2. Should Senator Smith and/or Senator Gordon Allott (R. , Colo.) lose
reelection, the next members in line are Roman Hruska (R. , Neb. )
and Norris Cotton (R. , N. H. ).
3. Senator Young has a very high regard for Bill Woodruff, If the
Republicans gain control of the Senate, it is expected that Young
would retain Woodruff as Counsel of the Defense and Intelligence
Operations Subcommittees.
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Under Control of Democrats
John Stennis (D. , Miss. ), Chairman
Stuart Symington (D. , Mo.) Peter Dominick (R., Colo.)
Henry Jackson (D. , Wash.) Barry Goldwater (R. , Ariz. )
Ed Braswell, Chief Counsel
No change.
No one up for reelection.
Under Control of Republicans
Margaret Chase Smith (R. , Me. ), Chairwoman)
John Stennis (D. , Miss.) Peter Dominick (R. , Colo.
Stuart Symington (D. , Mo.) Barry Goldwater (R. , Ariz. )
Bill Lewis, Chief Counsel2
1. Senator Smith is up for reelection and should win, but if she loses,
Strom Thurmond (R. , S. C.) is next in seniority.
2. If Senator Smith became Chairwoman, it is almost a certainty that
Bill Lewis, the Senator's present Administrative Assistant, could
have the position of Chief Counsel if he wanted it. Lewis has been
Senator Smith's Administrative Assistant, campaign manager and
strong right arm for many years. He has been a thorn in the flesh
to the White House and the Pentagon on many occasions and, if
appointed Chief Counsel of the Committee, would undoubtedly run
it with an iron hand.
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HOUSE ARMED SERVICES
Special Subcommittee on Intelligence
Under Democratic Control
Edward Hebert (D. , La. ), Chairman
Lucien N. Nedzi (D. , Mich.), Chairman, Intelligence Subcommittee
Melvin Price (D. , Ill. ) Alvin O'Konski (R. , Wis. )
O. C. Fisher (D. , Texas) William Bray (R. , Ind.)
Frank Slatinshek, Chief Counsel
All of the above should win reelection though O'Konski election looks
close. Through redistricting, O'Konski is facing Representative David Obey
who is 32 years younger and the district is believed to favor Obey. Should
O'Konski lose, Bob Wilson (R. , Calif.) would probably be appointed. Wilson
has been a supporter of the Agency over the years.
Under Republican Control
Les Arends (R. , Ill. ), Chairman
Alvin O'Konski (R., Wis.), Chairman, Intelligence Subcommittee
Lucien Nedzi (D., Mich.) William Bray (R. , Ind.)
Melvin Price (D. , Ill. ) Bob Wilson (R. , Calif.
Frank Slatinshek, Chief CounselI
All of the above except O'Konski are expected to win but if O'Konski
loses, Bray could become Chairman of our Subcommittee and Charles Gubser
would probably be appointed. Gubser has been a consistently strong supporter
of the Agency.
Should Les Arends lose (which seems very doubtful), the next in line
for chairmanship of the full Committee would be O'Konski, and Bray would
probably chair our Subcommittee.
1. Frank Slatinshek could remain Chief Counsel since the Committee staff
has operated on a nonpartisan basis under the last three chairmen.
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Appropriations Committee Special Group
Under Control of Democrats
George Mahon (D., Texas), Chairman
Jamie L. Whitten (D., Miss.)' Elford Cederberg (R., Mich. )2
Robert Sikes (D. , Fla.) William Minshall (R. , Ohio)
Ralph Preston, Staff
1. Whitten was appointed earlier in the year upon death of George Andrews
(D. , Ala. ). Whitten, 62, is a veteran congressman from rural
northern Mississippi. He has been in House since 1940 and was a
district attorney. He undoubtedly will succeed Mahon as chairman.
He is a very conservative Democrat with primary interest in agri-
culture-but prides himself as a fiscal authority abhoring Federal
overspending. He should exercise an increasingly closer oversight
of the Agency budget.
2. Cederberg was recently appointed with retirement of Frank Bow (R., Ohio)
and Charles Jonas (R. , N. C. ). Cederberg, 54, has represented Bay
City, Michigan and surrounding areas since 1953. He has a manufacturing
background and was mayor of Bay City. His constituency is Republican
and his voting record has been conservative.
All of above have seniority and should win reelection. Under
Democratic control, there should be no changes.
Under Control of Republicans
Elford Cederberg (R. , Mich. ), Chairman
George Mahon (D., Texas) William Minshall (R., Ohio)
Robert Sikes (D. , Fla. )1 John Rhodes (R., Ariz. )2 or
Robert H. Michel (R. Ill. )3
Ralph Preston, Staff
1. Though Whitten is senior to Sikes on the full Committee, Sikes had been on
the Subcommittee prior to the appointment of Whitten when Andrews
died. It is most likely that Sikes would be retained though Whitten
could be retained and Sikes dropped if Whitten wanted the assignment
in view of Whitten's Committee seniority.
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HOUSE A PPROPRIAT IONS (Continued)
2. John Rhodes is senior to Minshall but has not been previously assigned.
Rhodes, 56, has represented the Phoenix area of Arizona since 1952.
He has a legal and insurance salesman background. He is a conservative
Republican fashioned after Barry Goldwater. He is a key man in
Republican House leadership,
3. Should Rhodes not be appointed the next in Republican seniority is
Robert H. Michel, 49, who has represented the Peoria area since
1956. He has been in politics all of his career having served as
Admin. Assistant to former Representative Harold Velde from 1949
to 1956. He is rather consistently conservative and has voted against
most welfare programs.
4. Staff: Ralph Preston would most likely be retained. The staff of the
House Appropriations Committee has traditionally been considered
to be nonpartisan.
All of the above should win reelection.
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OTHER COMMITTEES
SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS
Under Democratic Control
J. W. Fulbright (D., Ark.), Chairman
John Sparkman (D., Ala. )* George Aiken (R., Vt.)
Mike Mansfield (D., Mont.) Clifford P. Case (R. , N. J. )*
Frank Church (D., Idaho) Jacob K. Javits (R. , N. Y. )
Claiborn Pell (D. , R. I. )* Hugh Scott (R., Pa. )
Gale McGee (D., Wyo.) James Pearson (R., Kans. )*
Edmund Muskie (D., Me.) Charles Percy (R., Ill.)*
William Spong (D., Va. )*
*Running for reelection.
Among the Democrats, Pell and Spong are considered to have stiff
opposition. Pell is running against former Secretary of the Navy John Chafee
and Spong's opponent is Representative William Scott.
Among the Republicans, Case is termed a "solid favorite" to win.
Pearson's chances are good. Percy faces veteran Representative Roman
Pucinski and is favored to win. Marlow Cook of Kentucky could possibly
replace Cooper of Kentucky who is retiring.
Under Republican Control
George Aiken (R., Vt. ), Chairman
Under a Republican Senate, two new Republicans would be assigned.
In addition to Marlow Cook of Kentucky other possible nominees are Mark
Hatfield of Oregon or-Eduvard Brooke of Massachusetts.
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SENATE GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS
Under Democratic Control
Sam Ervin (D., N.C.), Chairman
Henry Jackson (D., Wash.)
Edmund Muskie (D. , Me.)
Abraham Ribicoff (D., Conn-
Lee Metcalf (D., Mont.)
James Allen (D., Ala.)
Charles Percy (R., Ill. )=~~
Jacob Javits (R. , N. Y. )
Edward Gurney (R., Fla.)
Charles Mathias (R., Md.)
William Saxbe (R., Ohio)
William Roth (R., Del.)
Bill Brock (R., Tenn.)
Hubert Humphrey (D., Minn.)
Lawton Chiles (D., Fla.)
Up for reelection.
Harris (D. , Okla.) and Mundt (R. , S. Dak.) are retiring and would
create two vacancies.
Under Republican Control
Charles Percy (R., 111. ), Chairman
Should Percy lose reelection,- Javits who is not running would be
-next in line.
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SENATE JUDICIARY
Under Control of Democrats
James 0. Eastland (D. , Miss.), Chairman
John McClellan (D., Ark. )*
Sam J. Ervin (D. , N. Car. )
Philip A. Hart (D. , Mich.)
Edward Kennedy (D. , Mass.)
Birch Bayh (D., Ind. )
Quentin Burdick (D. , N. Dak. )
Robert C. Byrd (D., W. Va.)
John Tunney (D. , Calif. )
,,Up for reelection. All look good.
Under Republican Control
Roman L. Hruska (F. , Neb.)
Hiram. L. Fong (R., Hawaii)
Hugh Scott (R. , Penna. )
Strom Thurmond (R. , S. C. )=4
Marlow Cook (R., Ky.)
Charles Mathias (R., Md.)
Edward Gurney (R., Fla.)
Roman L. Hruska (R. , Neb.), Chairman
Hruska, 68, has served in Senate since 1954 after one term
as Representative. He had been a practicing attorney. Hruska is a
staunch Republican conservative from a strongly Republican state.
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JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGYI
Under Democratic Control
Melvin Price (D., Ill), Chairman2
John Pastore (D. , R. I. ), Vice Chairman
Senate Members
Clinton Anderson (D. , N. Mex.) George Aiken (R. , Vt. )
Henry Jackson (D. , Wash.) Wallace Bennett (R. , Utah)
Stuart Symington (D. , Mo.) Peter Dominick (R., Colo.)
Alan Bible (D., Nev.) Howard Baker (R., Tenn.)
House Members
Chet Holifield (D., Calif.) Craig Hosmer (R. , Calif. )
John Young (D. , Texas)3 John Anderson (R. , Ill.)
Orval Hansen (R. , Idaho)
NOTE: Ed Edmondson (D., Okla.)
is running for Senate.
Under Republican Control
Craig Hosmer (R. , Calif. ), Chairman4
George Aiken (R. , Vt. ), Vice Chairman5
1. The chairmanship of the JCAE rotates between the House and Senate
each Congress.
2. A popular senior Democrat who has consistently won reelection easily.
Should he lose; however, the chairmanship would probably go to
John Young of Texas since Holifield has for years been Chairman of
Government Operations. (Wayne Aspinall (D. , Wyo.) who was next
in line for seniority after Holifield was defeated in the primaries. )
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JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGY
(Cont' d)
3. John Young, 56, has a legal background and has been in Congress since
1956. He had supported liberal legislation but has recently been
conservative. This is perhaps attributed to his break with the
liberals in his support of the Vietnam war.
4. Hosmer, 57, has been in House since 1952. He is an Academy graduate
and reserve Rear Admiral. A legal background; served as attorney
for AEC. He is a conservative Republican from a conservative
constituency who has won past elections easily.
5. Aiken has been a supporter of the Agency for a number of years.
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HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Under Democratic Control
Thomas Morgan (D., Pa. ), Chairman
Most senior members:
Clement Zablocki (D., Wis.) William Mailliard (R., Calif.)
Wayne Hays (D., Ohio) Peter Frelinghuysen (R. , N. J. )
L. H. Fountain (D. , N. C.) William Broomfield (R., Mich.)
Dante Fascell (D., Fla.) J. Irving Whalley (R., Pa.)
Under Republican Control
William Mailliard (R., Calif. ), Chairman
William Mailliard, 55, has represented the western San Francisco
area since 1952. He comes from a wealthy family and is a Yale graduate. He
was considered generally liberal reflecting his constituency; however, with
the conservative swing in recent years Mailliard has become increasingly
conservative and supported President's Vietnam policy.
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Under Democratic Control
Chet Holifield (D., Calif.), Chairman
Most senior members:
Jack Brooks (D. , Texas) Frank Horton (R. , N.Y.)
L. H. Fountain (D. , N. C.) John Erlenborn (R., Ill.)
Robert Jones (D., Ala.) John Wydler (R. , N. Y. )
Edward Garmatz (D., Md.) Clarence Brown (R., Ohio)
John Moss (D., Calif.) Guy Vander Jagt (R. , Mich. )
Dante Fascell (D. , Fla.,) .
Note - Representative Dwyer (R., N. J.) was senior minority member and is
retiring. Ogden Reid (D., N. Y.) was next ranking Republican but switched
party affiliation.
Under Republican Control
Frank Horton (R. , N.Y.), Chairman
Horton is 53, born in Texas, and has been a member of House from
Rochester since 1963. He was an attorney. His constituency includes
Eastman Kodak and Xerox. He is considered a moderate liberal Republican
(ADA rating 76 in 1970).
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Under Control of Democrats
Peter Rodino, Jr. (D. , N. J. ), Chairmanl
Most senior members
Harold D. Donohue (D., Mass.)
Jack Brooks (D. , Texas)
Robert Kastenrneier (D. , Wis. )
Don Edwards (D. , Calif. )
William L. Hungate (D., Mo.)
John J. Conyers (D. , Mich.)
Edward Hutchinson (R., Mich.)
Robert McClory (R. , Ill. )
Henry P. Smith (R. , N. Y. )
Charles W. Sandman (R., N'. J.)
Tom Rails back (R., Ill.)
Edward G. Biester (R. , Pa.)
Emanual Celler (D. , N. Y.
was defeated in the primary.
Under Control of Republicans
Edward Hutchinson (R. , Mich. ), Chairman 2
1. Rodino, 63, has served in the House representing the Newark area
of New Jersey since 1948. He was a practicing attorney. Rodino
is considered a liberal Democrat and until recently had supported
the Vietnam war. Relations with the Agency have been very good
over the years.
2. Edward Hutchinson, 58, has represented an area in Southwest Michigan
since 1962. He has a legal background and had served 16 years in
the State legislature. He is strongly conservative and reflects his
constituency. Hutchinson has consistently voted against civil rights.
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HOUSE POST OFFICE & CIVIL SERVICE
Under Democratic Control
Thaddeus Dulski (D., N.Y.), Chairman
David Henderson (D., N. C. ), Vice Chairman
Most senior members:
Morris Udall (D. , Ariz. ) H. R. Gross (R., Iowa)
Dominick Daniels (D. , N. J.) Edward Derwinski (R., Ill.)
Robert Nix (D. , Pa.) Albert Johnson (R. , Pa. )
James Hanley (D. , N. Y.) Lawrence Hogan (R., Md.)
John Martiny, Chief Counsel
Under Republican Control
H. R. Gross (R., Iowa), Chairmanl
Edward Derwinski (R. , Ill. ), Vice Chairman?
William A. Irvine, Chief Counsel3
1. H. R. Gross, 73, is a senior Republican representing northcentral
Iowa since 1948. He has a reporter and news commentator back-
ground. Gross is a midwestern conservative and strongly against
large Federal spending.
2. Edward Derwinski, 46, has represented the southwest area of Chicago
since 1958. His constituency is strongly Republican and Derwinski
is considered a Goldwater conservative. He is a businessman and
had served as state legislator.
3. Irvine is the long-time minority counsel of the Committee. He is
close to Representative Gross and very favorably disposed toward
the Agency.
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Under Democratic Control
Olin Teague (D. , Texas), Chairman'
Most senior members:2
Ken Hechler (D., W. Val.) Charles Mosher (R. , Ohio)
John Davis (D., Ga.) Alphonso Bell (R. , Calif. )
Thomas Downing (D. , Va.) John Wydler (R. , N.Y.)
Don Fuqua (D., Fla.) Larry Winn (R., Kans.)
Under Republican Control
Charles Mosher (R. , Ohio), Chairman3
1. Teague will probably succeed George Miller (D., Calif.) who was defeated
in the primary. This would require that Teague give up the chairmanship
of the Veterans Affairs Committee. Teague, 62, a veteran
Congressman has served since 1946. A strong conservative Teague had
been Chairman of the Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee and has been
an enthusiastic supporter of the manned flight program. Teague's
constituency includes part of the rural areas near Houston.
2. Thomas Pelly (R. , Wash.) retired.
3. Mosher, 66, has a newsman, publisher background and has been in
Congress since 1960. His constituency is rural north central Ohio
including Oberlin College. A liberal Republican, very popular,
whose constituency is primarily Democratic. Mosher is most
interested in science and technology. (Jim Lynch, the most recent
Agency intern was assigned to Mosher's office. )
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