THE BIG QUESTIONS OF 1962

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP74-00297R000201500024-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 25, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: December 25, 1961
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

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rLL1iLEC TION
Will There Be a War?
What Cone ns
What Has OK Learned?
Whither Politics?
What Will Congress Do?
Will Russia Get Tougher?
Will the Wall Come Down?
Will Europe Unite?
The Big Qtteautvir
of 1962
STAT
As each year draws to a close, it is customary for men to
look hack on the year that has gone. NEwswEEK prefers to
look ahead?to the alarm-Ds and excursions, the tragedies
and travesties, the rumors of war and the vistas of great
achievement that are certain to make up a part of the human
experience in the year that lies ahead.
What sort of year will it be? There are a million questions
and few finite answers. and in asking the experts to delineate
the shape of things to come. NEWSWEEK ranged the gamut
from Will Red China get the A-bomb?" (Answer: Not likely)
to "Who will win the World Series?" (Obvious answer: The
Yanks). In the end, the editors selected the fourteen questions
in the left-hand column. Fourteen of its editors and bureau
chiefs whose regular assignments are to cover such news offer
their personal answers in the Special Section that follows.
CIA rze,-,, 4fty
0 Will There Be a War?
by Eldon Griffiths
Senior Editor, International A ffairs
- -=-
New York
A little boy in Connecticut who had his eighth birthday last week
Next in Southeast Asia? took my hand and told me innocently: "This is my last birthday.
The nuclear war will get me before I am 9."
The week before, a graduate student at Beloit College, Wis.,
asked with equal solemnity: "Is there nothing we can do to avoid
a nuclear war?"
The greatest danger of such a war in 1962 lies in the pos-
sibility Chaos or Order? sibility of a miscalculation by the leaders of the Communist world.
This, in turn, raises the question of the Kremlin's strategic inten-
tions in the year ahead, a fascinating subject that monop-
olizes the thinking of thousands of Kremlinologists in the West.
These people base their forecasts, all of them necessarily tentative,
More Castros? on three main areas of military and political intelligence, and these
are my impressions of their conclusions.
First, what is the record of recent Soviet aggressions? All told, there
have been three?and only three?occasions when the Soviet Union
Will the U.N. Survive? launched attacks against other countries?against Finland (1939),
Poland (1939), and Japan (1945). All three of these attacks were as
sudden as they were cynical, but close study of the evidence leads to
the conclusion that, in every case, the principal motivation of the
Soviet action was pre-emptive. Thus in Finland and Poland, Stalin's
Will Tariff Walls Tumble? major objective was to put the Red Army in a better defensive posture
against the Nazi onslaught he suspected was coming. In the case of
Japan, his aim was to insure that never again would Russia have a
Japanese threat against its Siberian frontier.
The historic lesson from this record is that the Soviets are unlikely to
launch an offensive war unless the Kremlin convinces itself that
Why Go to the Moon? Russia is about to be attacked. There is no reason whatsoever for the
Kremlin to make such a judgment in 1962, but it is possible that the
.
lead Khrushchev to risk a :
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pre-emptive war. For this reason, if no other, I doubt if the
U.S. will give the Germans nuclear arms.
The second area of intelligence that pertains to Russia's
intentions is the deployment of Soviet armed forces. These
are formidable indeed?a strategic striking force of 35-50
operational ICBM's, several hundred IRBM's, some 1,200
strategic bombers; an army of 2.2 million with more than
20,000 frontline tanks; and a navy second only to Amer-
ica's with nearly 500 submarines. The main concentrations
of these forces are known to Western intelligace agencies,
and the conclusion is that their deployment is mainly de-
fensive. Most of the heavy bombers, for example, are at air-
fields in western Russia?not on the Arctic shores, where
they would need to be located to attack America.
The third area of study is perhaps the trickiest of all.
What advice is Khrushchev getting from his military,
political, and ideological advisers on the subject of war?
The aznai:kahle thing is not how little but how much
intelligence material is now available in the West. The
problem is how to evaluate it. Yet on one conclusion, the
Kremlinologists are unanimous: Khrushchev, they believe,
is convinced that Communism can win its struggle with
the West without recourse to war.
Publicly, Khrushchev will continue to threaten atomic
war against anyone who resists him. For Russian domestic
consumption, he may also go on ranting that in a nuclear
war, the capitalist world would die, whereas the Com-
munist camp miraculously would be preserved. But in
private conversations with many a Soviet official, I have
gained a quite different impression. Khrushchev, they
say, is perfectly well aware that a nuclear war to achieve
world Communism is a contradiction in terms. The only
thing he would achieve would be the instantaneous immo-
lation of large parts of the existing Communist world.
DARK FORCES AND DANGER
On the basis of these estimates of Soviet intentions, I
doubt that the present leadership of the Soviet Union
will start a nuclear war in 1962. Yet Khrushchev and his
policies could conceivably be replaced?by major illness
(he is rumored to have had a slight stroke); by a palace
revolt in the Kremlin (unlikely but not impossible); above
all, by a combination of the Old Stalinists who want re-
venge for Khrushchev's derogation of their onetime idol,
the super Marxists, who denounce his "coexistence" as
"too soft on capitalism," and the Red China lobby, which
enjoys the powerful support of Comrade Mao Tse-tung.
Should Khrushchev be overthrown or his position be
weakened by these dark forces, the danger of war in
'62 materially would increase.
These forces could still push Russia into foreign adven-
tures from which there might well be no escape short
of major war. The obvious danger spots are Berlin, South
Vietnam, and possibly Iran. Should the U.S., for example,
commit large numbers of troops to the defense of South
Vietnam, the Stalinists in the Kremlin could be counted
on to pressure Khrushchev into supporting intervention
by the Red Chinese. The same goes for Berlin. Khru-
shchev himself may be ready to negotiate, but here,
as everywhere else, his enemies in the Kremlin leave
him little room for maneuver.
What, then, are the chances of war in 1962?
My prediction is that a big war by conscious decision is
unlikely, perhaps unthinkable. But small conflicts, e.g., in
Vietnam, are likely to grow bigger, and there is a danger
that they could suck in steadily larger forces from both
sides in the cold war. If so, the cry for victory?in the
United States as well as in the Communist camp?could
escalate such local conflicts into a frontal collision. That is
thp dancrpr that eta fpcm.ricb;, 1 clan
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0 What Concerns America?
by Joseph Carter
Senior Editor, National Affairs
New York
The mood was Christmas this week, all over the United
States. In the below-freezing suburbs around Boston, the
wreaths were going up on the front doors of the white
clapboard Georgian houses; in shirt-sleeved Los Angeles,
the strains of electronic Christmas carols echoed in the
streets; in Atlanta, the stores were jammed with shoppers.
For the vast majority of the nation's 185 million people
this would be probably the merriest Christmas in years?
yet they could still think seriously about the year ahead.
What did they see ahead? To find out, NEWSWEEK
queried its bureaus and reporters across the land.
Again and again in 1961 this magazine ran articles
reflecting the concern of the American people with the
sweep of world events. Were Americans worried about
Cuba? They were indeed. About Berlin? Of course. About
the threats of Khrushchev? Still again, yes.
Thus, before our turn-of-the-year reports came in, I
Leo LaLonde
The Kleppes of Bismarck: A bright future
had been mentally prepared to find that people would
be filled with doubts, worries, misgivings.
No such thing.
They are concerned, yes, with Katanga and the Congo,
with Berlin, with the role of the U.N.?but there is no
fear. The striking thing now is the near-unanimity of the
confidence with which Americans face the future.
In Bismarck, N.D., in the shadow of the skyscraper
capitol lives the Kleppe family: Father Tom S. Kleppe,
42-year-old veteran of World War II and president of the
Gold Seal Co.; his wife, Glen; their children Janis, 16
(Bismarck High School junior), Tommy, 14, and Jane, 7.
"There is no limit, virtually, to what we can do in
America," Kleppe said. "Our standard of living is already
the highest in history and it will go higher."
And his wife went on:
"I think about the future of my children, and I'm not
afraid. I think living will be more exciting for our children,
perhaps, than it has been for us."
In a pleasant suburb northeast of Atlanta, live the
Wallaces-40-year-old Robert B. Wallace Jr., publications
director of the Georgia Institute of Technology, his slender
and articulate wife, Jane, and their three daughters
(Nancy, 14, Jinx, 12?so named because she was born on
Friday the thirteenth?and Marilu, 10).
Bob Wallace said:
"XX/ 1. ? 1 a
Ve
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comforts than any group in history. The economy is strong;
it will never collapse again as in 1929. The government
won't let it. And I believe each generation should be
better than the last."
In Wellesley, Mass., live the Waites. Thirty-one-year-
old Charles Prescott Waite (an ancestor, Col. William
Prescott, commanded American forces at Bunker Hill)
works for the American Research and Development Corp.,
a major publicly owned venture-capital company. His
wife, Catherine, is 29; their children are Charles Jr., 6,
David, 4, and Catherine, 2.
"I can't imagine the day this country won't be at the
top of the heap," said Mrs. Waite.
"I have confidence in the future," added her husband.
"But I know we will have to work very hard to achieve
what I hope to achieve."
RELIGION, PRAYERS, AND PEACE
The reports from around the nation emphasized the
country's interest in religion, perhaps especially pro-
nounced at this season. In the home of Lloyd and Wylma
Nelson in suburban Seattle, when the family sat down to
dinner (the Nelsons have two sons, Jeffrey, 14, and
Marvin, 11), no one reached for food immediately. Jeffrey
picked up a pamphlet, "The Upper Room," a daily de-
votional guide, and began to read: "Prayer. Our Father,
forgive us for thinking of Christmas as an event in the past
only. May we experience the coming of Thy Son into our
hearts. So grant us the peace and joy of Christmas anew
and now?today. In Christ's name, amen."
The prayer reflected another major concern of Ameri-
cans: Whether there will be another war. And again there
was virtual unanimity. Most Americans interviewed said
positively that there would not be another war. A few
thought one might be started?but only accidentally.
Ruth Crutcher of Dallas, Texas, was typical. Wife of
Harry Crutaer Jr., who is vice president of the Mercantile
National Bank, major general commanding the Texas Air
National Guard, and a panel speaker for the National
Conference of Christians and Jews, Mrs. Crutcher said:
"I am disturbed, but I think there is no immediate
danger. I have no feeling that a major war will occur."
Her son Michael, 15, a sophomore at Jesuit High School,
added: "I don't believe we are going to have a war."
Crutcher himself said: "The United States is much stronger
than most people realize. If not, Russia would have made
more inroads in the world."
And as a corollary to America's conviction that there
will be no major war, there is also no great drive to
build fallout shelters, despite all the publicity.
"We are not going to build a shelter," said Don Mann,
The Crutehers of Dallas: No war fears
Joe Laird
Declassified
R.K. Arnold
The Maims of Detroit: No shelter for them
31-year-old Amherst graduate and member of the product-
planning staff of Chrysler Corp. in Detroit. "But I know a
fellow who has mortgaged his soul to build one. It has
bank-vault-type doors, and two 10-gauge shotguns, to hold
off his neighbors! Imagine! Two shotguns!"
Another point that came clear in NEWSWEEK'S reports
from around the U.S. was the emphasis that Americans?
many of whom were so strongly isolationist less than a
generation ago?now give to foreign problems.
Richard K. Arnold, a partner in a public-relations firm
in San Francisco, lives with his wife, Mary Louise, and
12-year-old son Willie in an ultra-modern home in Palo
Alto. "I can't help but feel that our relations with Russia
will continue to show improvement," he said. "I have no
sympathies with Red China, but I don't think the free
world should sit by and see her people starve. It would be
wonderful to ship grain, people-to-people ... I believe in
the Golden Rule?in my house, and in my government."
DOMESTIC WORRIES, TOO
The problems of the world aside, the people of America
are also concerned, as they move toward 1962, about do-
mestic issues. In some of the depressed areas of New
England and West Virginia, it's jobs; it's segregation in
the South (though by and large, the feelings are opti-
mistic); it's farm prices in the Midwest; the water problem
in the Far West. If they have kids of draft age, the big
question is: When will they be called?
It's New Year's football games; if they live near a bowl.
And, of course?being humans?Americans like to bother
themselves with the amorphous and insoluble problems
that all mankind has been bothering itself with ever
since the Garden of Eden.
Is the next generation going to hell? Undoubtedly.
Mother after mother (and father after father) said:
"I don't know what they're coming to. They are given
so much more freedom than we ever had. But all this
steady dating. And these new dances?the twist. It's
positively indecent."
Is the whole world going to bell in a hand basket? Un-
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( according to one school of thought reflected in the re-
ports) ?to business executives who want to rig prices
( according to other comments in the same reports).
But this was trivia. The nation never was bigger, never
surer of itself. It was going to more museums, reading
more books, listening to more music on hi-fl sets.
Above all, as the American people looked to 1962 they
saw themselves a people unafraid.
0 What Has JFK Learned?
by Benjariaalgew,
Wastington, Bureau Chief
Washington
The memories of this fast first year of the New Frontier
sing their siren song to the historian in every Washington
reporter. Sorting them out is like choosing Christmas cards.
JFK, outdoorsman?coattails flying, big cigar clenched in
his teeth, riding a horse across the Virginia countryside
with unexpected nonchalance and competence.
JFK, harassed?at the telephone, silent except for the
characteristic clicking of a fingernail against a tooth, listen-
ing to the first report from brother Bobby about racial vio-
lence in Alabama, and the trusting question: "Are you
going to have to use marshals?"
JFK, humorist?earnestly telling a group of Texans who
strongly opposed his election, "I want you to know that
Lyndon Johnson has played a vital role in every decision
of this Administration," and then with a wry smile . . .
"except Cuba."
JFK, amused?laughing his quick responsive laugh at the
cracks of his longtime political friend Dave Powers, now
the White House doorkeeper. (Samples: To Harold Mac-
millan on his second visit to the White House: "This place
Silhouetted against a spotlight, a confident President
N?wsweek?Vytac Valaitis
doesn't seem the same without you, Prime Minister." To
some friends down from Boston: "Best White House I
ever was in.")
JFK, historian?to a would-be biographer of his first
term: "Hey, I've got a great title?`The First Hurrah'."
JFK, teasing?stabbing his fingers at one of his closest
associates, and saying, "If you guys don't stop bum-rapping
[so-and-so] to every reporter in town, so help me I'll ap-
point him to the Supreme Court."
But these are just background memories for a biographer.
The historian will look deeper and find three key memories
that left their mark on President Kennedy during the first
year of his first term?Cuba, Vienna, and Trenton, N.J.,
each equally important in its way, each pointing to paths
he will tread in 1962.
Cuba was the great mistake and, Mr. Kennedy is con-
vinced, the great lesson of 1961. Simply expressed, the
lesson is this: Just because the best people around say it's
so doesn't make it so. To friends, Mr. Kennedy has often
evoked the hauntiq image of pollinx brains assembled in
the White House on the eve o . . . members of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff,il'?'rd;tikaja? olme o
a oint any of them"), p us t ose he did appoint, and
their overopinions to go forward. There won't
be another Cuba. And the decisions of 1962 will be made
on the President's judgment, no one else's.
Vienna was the great disappointment of 1961, with the
emergence of a Khrushchev far more belligerent, intransi-
gent, and hostile than the Khrushchev Mr. Kennedy had
hoped to tackle. For weeks afterward, the President car-
ried the transcript of their conversations with him wher-
ever he went. Over and over again he read the minutes of
the last meeting?to himself and to visitors, ending up with
his last words to Khrushchev on the last rumpled page?
"It's going to be a long, cold winter." But long before
winter arrived, Vienna changed the President as it
changed the life of every American, not from soft-boiled
to hard-boiled (to anyone who knows him the image of a
soft-boiled Kennedy is as incongruous as a limbless tree),
but from optimism to realism, short haul to long haul. And
perhaps even more important, areas of responsibility in-
side the New Frontier became sharply drawn, and Mr.
Kennedy himself concentrated monolithically on the major
problems dumped on him by Khrushchev at Vienna?Ber-
lin and Southeast Asia.
'GNAT'S-EYELASH' SYNDROME
More than he let anyone know, the President was
haunted by his small majority in 1960, which he himself
describes as a "gnat's eyelash." In Trenton, N.J., early last
month, Mr. Kennedy joyously and formally exorcised the
"gnat's-eyelash" syndrome with a fighting political speech,
his first as President. With his popularity at a whopping 77
per cent, he was ready to go to bat for a Democratic candi-
date ( Judge Richard Hughes) in direct competition with
former President Eisenhower, who had campaigned for
Hughes' opponent. After the Hughes victory, Mr. Ken-
nedy said: "We buried the Eisenhower problem."
But Democrats who hope for a partisan President in
1962 a la Harry Truman will be disappointed by Mr. Ken-
nedy. "That's not my style," he said last week. He still
needs Republican support to pass tariff reform, tax reform,
and medical care for the aged, and he knows it. New Jersey
proves that Eisenhower can't hurt, the President feels,
but "he sure can help us, and I hope he does."
On the eve of his second year in office, President Ken-
nedy is philosophical about his high level of popularity.
"Those things run in cycles," he says. "We've had some
?winners lately?the Adzhubei interview was good, the iso-
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little better, and our own people have dug in at their jobs
?McNamara for instance. How could anyone master that
job in less than ten months? He's terrific. And don't for-
get, Congress isn't in session, and we haven't been hear-
ing much from some of our 'friends' up there."
The President is riding into 1962 with an unmistakable
confidence in himself and his Administration. He can do
things next year he was reluctant to try this year. He can
call Harold Macmillan and Charles de Gaulle on the tele-
phone, for instance. (He spoke to both in one afternoon
last week.) With more confidence in his team, he can
concentrate more time and energy on the urgent prob-
lems. And with that Gallup poll in his hip pocket, he's go-
ing to be a hard man to cross.
0 Whither Politics?
by James M. Cannon
Senior Editor
Washington
The Chairman of the Republican Party was in shirt-
sleeves when I came out of the snow and into his stately
brick home in Bethesda, Md. As William Miller extended
his hand in welcome, I looked for signs that running the
Republican Party was taking its toll.
Last June, on the eve of his election as National Chair-
man, he was scrappy and optimistic. He still is. But in six
months his black hair has begun to gray at the temples
and lie has lost about 8 pounds. It is not surprising. Since
June, in his drive to organize and unify his party, Miller
has flown about 37,000 miles, and?through regional
meetings?met with the party leaders of all 50 states.
Miller, politician to the bone, needed no prompting to
talk about his favorite subject. I suggested that we are all
looking for answers to two central political questions:
1?Which Republican will emerge in November as the
party's next Presidential nominee?
2?Can the Democrats hold control of the U.S. House
of Representatives?
"Yes," said Miller, lighting the first in a chain of ciga-
rettes, "but I would add a third. Off-year elections will
also test confidence in the Kennedy Administration."
A vote of confidence is not all that the Democrats have
to gain or lose this year. They have 259 House seats, the
Republicans 174 (four are vacant). If the Republicans
should gain control of the House in the 88th Congress
(mathematically, they cannot win Senate control), the
Republican majority would pounce like bloodthirsty
Apaches on the wagon train of New Frontier legislation.
For two years they could also rake the Administration in a
crossfire of Congressional investigations.
Nobody is more aware of this than Democratic Chair-
man John Bailey. Four days before my long talk with
Miller, I had lunch with the articulate and candid Bailey.
Raising his brandy-on-the-rocks as though in toast, John
said firmly: "Look, if we can hold on to the House seats
that we have, it will be a victory. Only once in 50 years?
and that was in 1934?has the party in power failed to
lose seats in an off-year election."
If the pros are concentrating on this year's Congressional
races, the public will be concentrating on the identity of
the Republican nominee in '64; and the answer to that may
come from one, or all, of three gubernatorial races:
ti.New York: Though political hangouts are buzzing with
speculation about the long-term consequences of Gov.
Pictortni Par de
Romney: A political star rising?
Nixon
Newsweek
Rockefeller
can still win a second term handily. The biggest threat
would be New York City's Mayor Robert Wagner, but
Wagner shows no enthusiasm for taking on the shining
knight whose armor is but slightly battered. Many believe
that Rockefeller's impending divorce kills his Presidential
chances. The governor, now planning to politick harder
than ever, doesn't seem to be among them.
P.California: Richard Nixon is the choice now over both
Goodwin Knight in the primary, and against Democratic
Gov. Pat Brown. Therein lies his danger. Nixon campaigns
best when behind; and his commanding lead may lure him
to Dewey-eyed complacency and a soft campaign. In
estimating California, remember that Democrats have a
tremendous lead in registration (4,295,530 to 2,926,408).
loMichigan: George Romney, the silver-haired, jut-jawed,
54-year-old president of American Motors, can have the
Republican gubernatorial nomination for the asking.
Romney has formidable political assets: A successful busi-
ness career, commanding platform personality, impeccable
background (he preaches in his Mormon church every
Sunday), a "sincere" TV image, an attractive, civic-minded
wife, and appeal that crosses party lines. If Romney runs
and wins big, his supporters will boom him as another
"Wendell Willkie" for 1964.
While Presidential possibilities
less speculation, there are other
watch. Among them:
ii.Connecticut: "I am pulled both ways," Abraham Ribicoff
told me as he sat in the tall, blue leather chair that was his
as Connecticut's governor. Ribicoff would relish the run for
senator against Prescott Bush. However, as HEW Secre-
tary, Ribicoff also feels obligated to stay on and help push
through Congress President Kennedy's programs for
health, education, and welfare. If he does run for the
Senate, Ribicoff told me, he will pledge to serve the full
term?and this would eliminate his chance to become a
Kennedy appointee to the Supreme Court. Abe Ribicoff
loves the campaign podium and self-earned political power,
are always good for end-
races and other faces to
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040, &J 1,41,1a-d aral.4 11.1lJ11
run for the Senate?unless Mr. Kennedy himself says no.
0'Massachusetts: The race for the Democratic nomination
for senator between the President's brother, Ted Ken-
nedy, and Edward McCormack, nephew of the House
Speaker-to-be, is a tossup now. It may be settled in pri-
vate by John Kennedy, or in a bloody primary. If the
winner escapes with few scars, he can, in this heavily
Democratic state, probably beat George Lodge, the most
likely Republican nominee.
0'Ohio: The formidable and well-heeled ($3 million
yearly) Republican organization is out for a sweep; and
unless the Democrats pull off a political miracle, Republi-
can State Auditor James A. Rhodes will be Ohio's next
governor?even if Gov. Michael DiSalle runs again.
0?Pennsylvania: Republicans appear to be on the upsurge,
and may knock off liberal Democratic Sen. Joseph Clark.
O'Arkansas: Gov. Orval Faubus is trying to decide if he is
big enough to knock Democratic Sen. William Fulbright
out of the Senate. The betting is that Faubus might, but
segregationist Rep. Dale Alford could not.
As the political season warms with the weather, in-
terests will center on Kentucky (Sen. Thruston Morton
defending, probably against Wilson Wyatt), South Caro-
lina (Sen. Olin Johnston defending, probably against Gov.
Fritz Hollings), Nebraska (Democratic Gov. Frank Mor-
rison against former Interior Secretary Fred Seaton),
Maryland, Colorado, Maine, Oregon, Utah.
Who will walk off with the big victories in 1962? Not
even the pollsters know now. But we can be sure that in
1962, as it has been since the Republic's founding, politics
may not always be enlightening, but it will be entertaining.
0 What Will Congress Do?
by Samuel Shaffer
Chief Congressional Correspondent
Washington
Sen. Paul Douglas had just finished an 85-speech speak-
ing tour in Illinois, but his eyes lit up as he told how
popular the young President was?a popularity, he in-
sisted, that extended to his program too.
"I had to interrupt my tour," he said, "to meet with a
group of grain-storage dealers. I wasn't happy at the
prospect; they're always complaining about Democratic
farm programs. You know what they told me? 'We like the
farm program. What can we do to support it?'"
Kenneth Harding, the shrewd and affable executive di-
rector of the Democratic Congressional campaign commit-
tee, who maintains closer contact with House Democrats
than any other single person in Washington, had this report
from the grass roots: "The President's popularity is fabu-
lous. He couldn't hope for a better personal climate for
the next session."
The 87th Congress reconvenes for its second session at
noon on Jan. 10. The faces will be the same, but the out-
look of the members will be profoundly changed from the
last session by the solidly based and still mounting popu-
larity of the President. Former doubts about chances for
enactment of tax reforms, medical care for the aged, and
reciprocal-trade-agreements legislation are not wholly re-
solved, but they have diminished.
The Republicans agree on the score of Mr. Kennedy's
popularity, but express doubt that it can be translated in
terms of legislation. Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona told
me during a brief stopover at the Capital this week: "I
_ _
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larity across the country. But I don't think his popularity
will help him pass the big controversial bills."
This, I believe, is the outlook for the big issues:
OA new liberal tariff law should pass, perhaps giving JFK
authority for sweeping reductions.
0.Tax reforms will include credit for new machinery and
plants; withholding of dividend and interest payments.
0.Medical care for the aged under social security remains
in doubt. But win or lose, the President believes the issue
could tip the 1962 elections to the Democrats.
Federal school aid looks dead because of the religious
and racial issues involved.
Whatever doubts are expressed stem from the situation
in the House, where the death of former Speaker Sam
Rayburn is a setback to the Administration.
But Rayburn's probable successor, John McCormack, told
me: "I'm pretty optimistic. We should do all right on the
trade and tax bills and should get some kind of medical-
care bill onto the House floor. Once there, it'll pass."
0 Will Russia Get Tougher?
by Whitman Bassow
Moscow Bureau Chief
Moscow
"The party should tell us the whole truth about Stalin,"
I heard an eager youth shout in Red Square the day
Stalin's body was removed from its showcase tomb.
"Pravilno, pravilno [right]," echoed his listeners. As I
heard the serious-faced men and women speak out as
Russians rarely have?critically, doubtfully, demandingly
?I sensed an undercurrent of restlessness, a vague dis-
satisfaction with the way things are going.
I heard it again one snowy evening on broad Leninsky
Prospekt. Peering out from under a black fur hat a mid-
dle-aged man quietly told his companions: "What can
they do now? I sat [in prison] for eleven years and I'm not
afraid. And anyway, those days are finished."
Encouraged by Khrushchev's destruction of the Stalin
elease
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legend, the Russian people, in my judgment, are begin-
ning to play a role in Soviet politics. A small role perhaps
and one that can be choked off at any time, but one that
Khrushchev, for his own purposes, is apt to respect. And
if the Russian people's wishes have any weight at all, that
weight will be thrown on the side of peace?which could
mean moderation abroad, and a better life at home.
More important than the Russian people's desire for a
lessening of cold-war tensions are the facts of Western
power. Soviet leaders are well aware of the current Amer-
ican buildup and they believe Mr. Kennedy means busi-
ness on Berlin. The growing split in the Communist bloc
may also reduce the Kremlin's desire for an all-out break
with the West.
One October evening, I watched Khrushchev bid fare-
well to Chou En-lai at Vnukovo Airport. They shook hands
and smiled, but their smiles were chillier than the wind
that swept the field. It may be a long time before these
two giants of the Communist bloc clasp hands again, for
Chou, in cold fury, had walked out of the Party Con-
gress after Khrushchev attacked Red China's Stalinist
vassal, Albania.
The quarrel between Moscow and Peking was further
dramatized on the evening of Nov. 29 when, by ironic
coincidence, both the Yugoslav and Albanian embassies
gave receptions in honor of their national day. I spotted a
number of top Soviet officials at the Yugoslav party but the
Chinese were conspicuous by their absence. Alone in a
corner of the banquet hall stood a junior Chinese diplomat.
I asked him if Ambassador Liu Hsiao would attend; he
replied, in English, "Oh no, he very sick."
Halfway across Moscow, in the three-story Albanian
Embassy, Charg?'Affaires G. Mazi was receiving his
guests?among them two low-ranking Soviet officials. The
only full ambassador to appear from the Communist bloc
was Red China's Liu Hsiao, whose health had miracu-
lously improved. With him were at least 30 embassy
officials in their traditional black tunics.
Next year will probably see a deterioration in Sino-
Soviet relations, unless Peking is prepared to scuttle its
Albanian ally. But this is hardly likely, for reasons of
ideology, politics, and pride. The Chinese dragon will re-
tain its clawhold on the Adriatic.
Over-all, I still expect Russia, though not China, to be-
come less tough in 1962. In particular, I suspect that there
may be a compromise over Berlin?if only because Khru-
shchev could badly use an agreement with the U.S. so as
to show his critics within the bloc, in China, and at home
that his policy of peaceful coexistence is paying off.
But just because Khrushchev may seem less tough does
not mean that tensions will ease. The cold war will go on;
we can only hope that it doesn't turn hot.
0 Will the Wall Come Down?
by Dwight Martin
Berlin Bureau Chief
Berlin
I walked along the Berlin wall one foggy night last
week and nothing impressed me so much as the sense of
permanency about it. This dreadful concrete-block and
barbed-wire scar, which so dramatically emphasizes
Berlin's plight as the core of the Central European prob-
lem today, is evidently here to stay?unless the West
Axel Grosser from Monkmeyer
Through the Berlin wall: Little hope over there
thought to myself as I walked. Yet here it is, and sadly
I have to agree with those Germans and Western officials
who expect little change in Berlin, either for better or
worse, during the next year.
There will be new scares and harassments from the
Communist side in 1962. The powerful Communist search-
lights will continue to probe through the mist scudding
around the wall at night, looking for escapees. Almost
every day, somewhere along the wall, there will be
a burst of machine-gun fire, or an angry exchange with
water cannon and tear-gas grenades by the police of
East and West Berlin.
A few refugees will trickle through. Others will die
trying, like the young Austrian student machine-gunned
to death last week while helping a fellow student's mother
over the wall. The spirit of Christmas 1961 was marked
for West Berliners by the wooden cross with the crown of
barbed-wire thorns placed where he fell beside the wall.
I expect Christmas 1962 to be marked in a similar way.
West Berliners, however, have learned to live with
the wall. They have become used to making the abnormal
normal, the unendurable endurable. The fashionable side-
walk cafes along Kurfiirstendamm are still jammed at
teatime with overfurred, overlarded ladies who wolf down
enormous quantities of schlag and trade gossip just as
though there were no wall. For these people, the wall
is simply driiben?over there.
Some people?particularly professional men like doctors
and lawyers?are quietly leaving for West Germany, and
so is some capital. The exodus is apt to increase in 1962.
But the vast majority of Berliners will stick it out in the
New Year. They have nowhere else to go.
If there is courage?and fatalism?on the Western side
of the wall, driiben, there is little hope left. East Ger-
many's chronic food shortages seem to be getting worse
goes to war to knock it down rather than better. Currently there's a salt shortage de-
;
ers4. fbr. 1nrcfp gait mines in the East Zone, and even
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potatoes are rationed. I talked with a youth who
came out through the Berlin sewer system (1,500 fled
in November). "Nobody really works any more in my fac-
tory," he said. "Nobody gives a damn."
Driving back to West Berlin after a tour through the
East, I was recently stopped by two young Vopos (Peo-
ple's Police). They examined My passport, then asked:
"How is it in the West?"
"Still about the same," I said.
The older one quickly glanced about him, then he
grinned and said: "Keep it that way. We'll be seeing
you soon."
But I doubt if the East Germans will risk an open revolt
in 1962. Walter Ulbricht still is firmly in the saddle and
the Red Army in East Germany still has 22 divisions.
0 Will Europe Unite?
by Arnaud de Borehgrave
Chief European Correspondent
Paris
It was snowing hard on the Franco-German frontier
when an apple-cheeked young French customs inspector
flagged me to a stop and dutifully told me to open the
trunk of my car. Why, I wondered, would a 21-year-old
European pick the customs service as a career nowadays?
Isn't the Common Market supposed to make Europe's
frontiers gradually disappear?
"I looked into that very carefully," the customs man
said, "and I'm reasonably sure of spending the next
40 years in the customs service. We graduated 950 cadets
from customs school this year, more than ever before."
The New Year will certainly see great progress toward
the economic unification of Western Europe. A great his-
torical movement is under way?nurtured by modern
technology and industry's need for bigger markets; com-
pelled by Soviet pressure and the need for mutual de-
fense; accelerated by the sharing of Frenchmen and
Germans, Italians, Dutch and Britons in the same football
matches seen over Eurovision, and the same desire to
forget the agonies of World War II.
The big impetus will come from Britain's determination
to join the Common Market. If the British succeed?
@50-Yr 2013/10/25:
no foregone conclusion?the Scandinavians will follow, and
the new Europe will represent a market of 300 millions.
It will exceed the U.S. in annual output of steel, and
eventually of cars, with an over-all gross national product
30 per cent bigger than Russia's. (For comparative output
of Europe, America, and Russia, see chart.)
Yet 1962 will by no means see a smooth and orderly
flow toward European union. On the contrary, there may
be growing resentments against the Common Market on
the part of many European workers. One Italian worlcrnan
got angry when I asked him how the Common Market had
improved his lot. "There's no freedom of movement for
workers," he retorted. "I had to fight like a lion to get from
Italy to France. As for lower prices, everything I buy for
my family keeps going up." They look on the Common
Market as a creation of big business rather than the
nucleus of a united Europe.
Just one opinion? Perhaps. But I've heard similar views
from dozens of ordinary Europeans?from a hard-bitten
subway worker at the Porte Maillot, from a tax assessor in
Brussels, from a restaurant owner in The Hague.
The men who talk most fervently about uniting Europe
are the men who have devoted their professional careers
to it, like pipe-sucking Etienne Hirsch, head of Euratom
(the European atomic agency). Only recently Hirsch
was declaiming that Euratom is a splendid example of a
supranational institution that functions smoothly without
any interference from its six member governments. Less
than a week later, Charles de Gaulle ordered Hirsch
removed from his supranational job, and replaced him with
Pierre Chatenet, a nationally minded former Interior Min-
ister who abhors the whole idea of a federal Europe.
De Gaulle is only one of the major obstacles to the cre-
ation of a united Europe. Other Europeans are divided on
what kind of Europe they want?the federalists want a
completely united Europe; confederalists want much
looser ties; nationalists distrust the whole project. Then
there are pan-Atlantic visionaries who want to include
the U.S. in a gigantic Atlantic Common Market.
This is a vision that one day may come to pass. But in
1962, the best that can be hoped for is a gradual
lowering of tariffs among all the Atlantic nations, including
the U.S., and progress toward the completion of Britain's
negotiations for membership in the Common Market. If
and when Britain joins, the Common Market will become
a looser?if stronger?grouping. This alone insures, as I see
the year ahead, that at Christmastime 1962 the young
customs officer still will be stopping every car.
Newsweek?Mackay
Production Race: Europe Is Catching Up
97
1961
1962
Steel
0
WESTERN
EUROPE
118
107
70
77
million tons
million tons
)27 million tons
1961 1962
Autos
311116i4A
5.5 6.3 832
million
1961
Electricity
155,000 162,000
40;14,6 416ilii111416
4.5 5.5
million
897
billion kwh
1962
3
327 66
billion kwh
628
billion kwh
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() Next in Southeast Asia?
by Robert S. Elegant
Southeast Asia Correspondent
Hong Kong
There is no doubt in my mind that the West can hold
Southeast Asia?but only on one possibly alarming condi-
tion: That the U.S. makes the necessary effort and is
willing to run the risk of war with Communist China.
Mao Tse-tung and North Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh held
an important strategy meeting last November. Their con-
clusions virtually guarantee that Communist guerrilla pres-
sure on Southeast Asia will intensify in 1962. And
unfortunately, the countries under attack?today South
Vietnam, tomorrow perhaps Thailand or Cambodia?lack
the will to fight and the political resources to survive
without U.S. help.
As far back as last January, I was convinced that Laos
would be lost unless the U.S. intervened militarily. I had
driven north from Vientiane across a drought-blasted
landscape of twisted, bare trees and villages of poor,
stilt-legged houses, to a road junction called Phonkone.
There lay the headquarters of Col. Kouprasith Abhay,
commander of the pro-Western forces pursuing rebel
Capt. Kong Le. Just across the River Lik in the highlands
was the rebel-held village of Ban Hill Heup, but in spite
of the tough appearance of Kouprasith's royal troops?with
their cartridge belts and machine-gun-mounted jeeps?
they had been stalled at Phonkone for three weeks.
"Do you wonder why I am still here?" asked the colonel
sheepishly. "The terrain across the river is very difficult."
1 later learned that his 800-man battalion had been
held at bay by only 30 snipers.
Kong Le, without a fight, went on to take the vital
Plaine des Jarres, win half of Laos, and decisively swing
the military balance away from the pro-Western Royal
Laotian Army. As a result, a "neutral" coalition govern-
ment?almost certainly dominated by the Communists?will
be formed early next year.
The Communists have now moved the focus of their
attack to South Vietnam. But while President Ngo Dinh
Diem watches the Communist guerrilla power grow, his
own is crumbling fast?largely because Diem is deter-
mined not to change his ways. He is contemptuous of
American advice, especially after the U.S. role in Laos.
The last time I saw him, he pointed angrily to some red
hatching on his map and said: "What I can't forgive is
your letting the Pathet Lao take Tchepone in southern
Laos after the cease-fire. Tchepone?the main route for
Communist infiltration into my country."
Diem is not alone in criticizing U.S. "irresolution" in
Southeast Asia. Marshal Sarit Thanarat of Thailand, for
instance, charges Washington with "talking tough and
acting weakly." Just last month, one of the three men
who make Thailand's foreign policy said to me: "No small
Asian country can do anything to stem the Communist
tide. Nor can SEATO, because America has failed to
provide leadership."
The same man went on to put the Southeast Asian
challenge of 1962 in the same way I have heard it
expressed from Singapore to Manila: "If America shows
the resolution, her allies will follow. If not, we all perish."
The fateful question remains: What will Red China
do if the United States commits its own troops to hold
Gulf of Siam
,.1tioio.oroas of
uiirrilltractivity
South
China
Sea
New,week--Magill
likely because the Chinese economy simply cannot sup-
port a major military operation. Nor will Russia support
Peking if the risk is nuclear war. But if the U.S. delays
too long, China may acquire its own nuclear weapons
and a modern economy. Now?not next year?is the time
for Americans to realize that half measures will no longer
suffice to hold Southeast Asia.
e Africa: Chaos or Order?
by John P. Nugent
Nairobi Bureau Chief
Elisabethville
For much of Africa, 1962 will be 365 long days of liv-
ing between hope and violence.
You can feel the hope pulsating across the continent?
in the voices of thousands gathered to demand "liberty"
and "justice" for all; in the open-air schoolhouses, sprout-
ing up in the bush, where millions of naked youngsters
chant the litany of Africa's newest religion?A B
C ... But alongside the hopes there are hatreds, not only
of black versus white, but of black versus black.
As the tensions of Africa rise, many of its people will
continue to live in fear of unexpected attacks like the one
in which three other correspondents and I barely escaped
with our lives last September. We were driving through
seemingly deserted streets in a Baluba refugee camp in
the Congo when suddenly we were surrounded by a
screaming horde of tattered youths. They hacked at the
metal body of our car with their vicious panga knives. One
of my colleagues was badly slashed, but I was lucky:
Only a few glass splinters in my eyes.
These were people theoretically under United Nations
protection. Yet their hatred of the white man?any white
man?seemed a basic drive in their lives. And it is this
hatred that the 6 million white men still living in Negro
Africa may have to face up to in 1962.
South Africa is the likeliest site of racial violence in
1962. But there the whites will win?temporarily. The Af-
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)lacks push too hard," says a
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Associated Press
Congo tribesmen: Hatred contends with hope
Salisbury businessman, "we will cut them all down." The
leader of Southern Rhodesia's 3 million Africans, Joshua
Nkomo, is no less adamant. "1962 is the year of action," be
says. "We plan to take over the government."
Alongside the white-black battle is the battle of the
black versus black. Its objective is political supremacy, and
the struggle is already under way in a score of lands. The
Congo is the prime example?and even a U.N. victory
against Moise Tshombe of Katanga is unlikely to resolve
its problems. Instead of open warfare between the U.N.
and Katanga, there is apt to be a guerrilla war between
the Lunda tribe (which supports Tshombe) and the Leo-
poldville government (which is mainly supported by the
Baluba tribe). This struggle may well spread into Kasai
and Kivu and into Portuguese Angola, where the battle of
black and white already is under way.
Meanwhile, the black dictators can be expected to
stamp on the still feeble seedlings of democratic rule. In
Ghana, President Kwame Nkrumah already wallows in
self-glorification, and his example appeals to many of the
weak nations left behind by the French Community.
In 1962, all these African struggles are apt to produce
more chaos than orderly development. Yet the chaos,
perhaps, can be contained. For important as it is, Africa
is not yet powerful. It still is the object of other people's
policies, not the creator of its own.
0 More Castros?
by Harold Lavine
Chief Latin America Correspondent
Mexico City
From the Rio Grande to Cape Horn, the shadow of
Fidel Castro has cast the whole future of Latin America
into doubt. As 1961 draws to a close, the shadow is
receding slightly, for there is a light now shining from
Washington?the Alliance for Progress. Yet the outlook for
1962 remains gloomy. Here are some of the experiences
that make me think so.
At a dinner party in lofty Bogota, Colombia, a lawyer's
wife said archly: "Of course, we're a privileged class?
and we intend to retain our privileges."
In San Salvador, capital city of F.1
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grower worked himself into a purple rage over the Alliance
for Progress. "What's all this garbage about 'controlled
revolution'?" he demanded. "What difference does it make
whether a revolution is 'controlled'? The result is the
same: We lose everything." He was drinking an imported
German beer as he spoke. The price: Sixty cents a bottle,
exactly a day's pay for each of his workers.
In Tegucigalpa, Honduras, an opposition leader told
me that building roads could lead only to Communism.
"You claim our Indians lead miserable lives up in the
mountains. Maybe so. But they don't know it. Now they'll
come down to Tegucigalpa, look in shopwindows, and
get discontented."
A pediatrician friend of mine in San Jose, Costa Rica,
posed the problem best. "Throughout history," he ex-
plained, "a handful of people have lived in luxury in
Latin America, the great masses in poverty. It was a fact
of life which everyone accepted. Now, suddenly, all over
the world, the poor have become tired of being poor."
Millions of Latin Americans are discontented now, and
their ranks are growing. In 1962, more and more of them
will look to Nikita Khrushchev and Fidel Castro for an
escape from hopeless poverty. In Tegucigalpa, I saw an
elevator boy reading a Communist newspaper. In Costa
Rica, a gas-station attendant wearing a Fidelista cap and
beard spat at our car as it pulled out.
Not all Latins look to Castro; he has a new rival. Presi-
dent John F. Kennedy's visit to Colombia and Venezuela
was designed to project his Alliance for Progress program
which already has captured the imagination of many
workers and peasants. Mr. Kennedy's popularity stems from
his youth and vitality, his Catholicism, from his promise to
aid only governments that make social and economic
reforms. In Latin America, reform means one thing: Land
for the landless. And the cam pesinos want land.
If the Alliance makes progress, the United States won't
have to fear Communism or Fidelismo in Latin America.
The choice between order and progress or chaos and
Communism will mainly depend in 1962 on how tough
Washington is. If the U.S. can persuade?or force?Latin
America to make reforms it will cut the ground out from
under the Fidelistas. Otherwise, in a year or two or
three, the Fidelistas will be crying: "Reform has failed;
the only way out is revolution."
This could prove, I am afraid, an irresistible argument.
Castro: The shadow of poverty
Newsweek?Vytas Valalti,
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? Will the U.N. Survive?
by Robert Massie
Chief U.N. Correspondent
United Nations
"My God!" said a Western European delegate in the
U.N. lounge last week. "The U.N. effort in the Congo has
bankrupted the United Nations, killed a Secretary-General,
split the Western. Alliance, and set whites and blacks to
fighting in the heart of Africa, and you ask me where the
U.N. is going! I'd say, it's going to hell."
There are a lot of similarly gloomy thoughts about the
United Nations these days, but my view of the U.N.'s
prospects for 1962 is a bit more cheerful. Only the Commu-
nists seriously want to see the U.N. destroyed. An over-
whelming majority of its 104 members want the U.N. to
grow in power and influence. "The U.N. is absolutely
essential to us. We cannot allow its destruction in this
way," a Nigerian delegate told me. "The U.N. is the prin-
cipal forum of our foreign policy," an Indian pointed out.
And even a Yugoslav declared: "We are against the
troika idea categorically."
A second reason for my confidence in the U.N.'s future
is the personality of the new Secretary-General, U Thant.
When the name of this obscure Burmese was first men-
tioned as a candidate to fill Dag Hammarskjold's shoes, a
high Secretariat official confided: "I don't think he's tough
enough for the job." But in office, U Thant has proved very
tough indeed. Shortly after Soviet delegate Valerian A.
Zorin vetoed a U.S. proposal that the U.N. retrain the
Congolese Army, Thant declared that he would go ahead
and do it anyway. And early this month, when fighting
again broke out in Katanga, the mild, Buddhist Secretary-
General authorized "whatever force is necessary."
Whether U Thant?and the U.N.?will weather 1962
depends largely on what happens in the Congo. My guess
is that, with the continued urging of the U.S. and the small
nations, Katanga will be pressured into some kind of politi-
cal arrangement with the Leopoldville government. Then
it will become the urgent task of U.S. delegates to demand
that the U.N. deal with equal firmness with the leftist
regime of Antoine Gizenga.
Even sooner, the U.N. must find some money. Only six-
teen of its 104 members have so far fully paid their bills,
and by Jan. 1, the U.N. will be $107 million in the red.
Of this, a whopping $41 million is owed by Soviet Russia.
In a showdown, however, the U.S. probably will continue
to pay the bulk of the U.N.'s costs, if only because, as one
U.S. delegate put it: "We can't afford not to have the U.N."
The coming year will certainly see a tide of anti-U.N.
feeling rising from many sources. As Red China approaches
the U.N.'s doorway, the clamor in the U.S. can reach
alarming proportions in 1962?an election year. As
U Thant's temporary term of office nears an end a year
from now, the Kremlin can be expected to launch another
offensive in favor of a troika. There will also be a number
of proposals for U.N. reform, emanating from those who
feel that no system is right in which Gabon (population:
425,000) has an equal vote with the United States.
Yet bumbling, irritating, and irresponsible as it can be,
the U.N. \\'ill be around for many a year to come. Presi-
dent Kennedy last month called it an organization which
the U.S. "can neither abandon nor control"; U Thant re-
cently said "it is still the best hope for getting out of our
intolerably dangerous thermonuclear jungle."
think the world accepts these views.
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United Nations: Inadequate and essential
? Will Tariff Walls Tumble?
by Clem Morgello
Senior Editor. Rosiness
New York
The President gave an immediate answer to the weighty
tariff question last week when he sent two Administration
trade experts scooting off to Brussels. In an ultramodern,
nine-story building in the heart of that city, negotiators for
the U.S. and the European Common Market were on the
verge of a major agreement. ECM was offering to cut its
import duties on American products by 20 per cent,
virtually across the board; the U.S. was about to make
major, though less extensive, cuts. If the deal goes through,
it will exhaust the Administration's tariff-cutting powers.
Mr. Kennedy will have to go to Congress for more author-
ity, for the "new and bold" trade program he wants. At
the moment, the fate of his program must be rated one of
the political imponderables of 1962.
While a great many executives with whom I've talked
are reserving judgment, most of those who have taken a
stand are for the new and hold approach. But, says one
supporter with foreboding, "it must be borne in mind that
the opposition has been strangely inarticulate."
Sooner or later, the uncommitted will choose a side.
They'll have to face up to one salient point which stands
out in the growing stream of speeches and news items
which pour across my desk: In a very real sense, the
Great Debate transcends trade policy; it goes to the heart
of the entire economy. If America opts for freer trade, the
nation will paradoxically lose some of its freedom of act be
ion.
More than ever, business, labor, and government will
subject to the harsh discipline of international competition.
If domestic prices go up, no lowering of tariffs abroad will
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/ help one whit; U.S. goods will be overpriced to begin
with. Lower tariffs are a hazard as well as an opportunity.
Some of the toughest business minds in the country
have weighed the problems and come out for freer trade.
General Electric chairman Ralph J. Cordiner admits that
GE would suffer "plenty" in a low-tariff world. But, he
adds: "We'll take our chances." Movie-camera makers
were forced to take their chances several years ago when
import duties were slashed 40 per cent. The increased
foreign competition which followed, notes Bell & Howell
chairman Charles H. Percy, "brought out the best of
creativity in our industry." Percy's Bell & Howell, for one,
has enjoyed an uninterrupted growth of sales and earnings.
Despite America's demonstrated ability to compete (the
U.S. will export about $5 billion more than it imports this
year), it is disturbing that many
free-trade supporters speak out less
clearly. When businessmen talk
about keeping prices competitive,
they zero in on wage levels; when
labor speaks, it comes down hard
on "top-heavy executive expendi-
tures . . . inflated salaries, bonuses,
stock options, expense accounts."
Along with passing the buck,
there is also a lot of "yes, but." One
big coal producer told me that his
industry wants no tariff protection.
"We can put our coal down in
West Germany cheaper than coal
can be mined in the Ruhr," he
explains. "In the U.S., no foreign
coal causes us concern." However,
he adds: "The coal industry has
strongly favored quota restrictions
on imports of residual oil [which
are cutting into coal markets on
the East Coast]."
Even the Administration, while
talking of freer trade, may slap an 8.5-cents-a-pound
"equalization" fee on cotton-textile imports.
Mr. Kennedy is right in asking for a new, and bold trade
program. But if it is shot through with exceptions, it won't
be new. It won't be bold. It will be meaningless.
@50-Yr 2013/10/25:
are not going to the moon for reasons of military superi-
ority. It is much easier to send a hydrogen warhead 5,000
miles across the ocean than it is to hurl one 230,000 miles
through space. The drive is not for economic or scientific
reasons, even ough there are valuable mineral resources
and geologic treasures to be mined on the moon. Nor is
it all a big moondoggle, intended to provide status for a
scientific caste like the Egyptian priests who presided at
the ancient pyramids. Finally, the U.S. has not committed
itself to the exploration of the moon in order to beat the
Russians there. We have no guarantee that we will be
first. In fact, it is certain that in the next year or two we
will continue to trail behind Red man-in-space achieve-
ments. (For example, the January flight which is sched-
uled to send Lt. Col. John Glenn into orbit for three
circuits of the earth will fall far
short of the seventeen-orbit feat
of cosmonaut Titov. Not until 1963
will a souped-up Mercury capsule
duplicate Titov's flight.)
UP
Astronaut Glenn: He accepts the challenge
(0 Why Go to the Moon?
by Edwin Diamond
Space and the Atom Editor
New York
At this moment in Washington, and, no doubt, in Mos-
cow, blueprints have been drawn up for the most ambi-
tious single endeavor in human history: The exploration
of the moon. In aspiration, it surpasses the adventurous
odyssey of Columbus. In size, it dwarfs the wartime enter-
prise that produced the atomic bomb. The A-project cost
$1 million a day over four years. The U.S. lunar project
will spend $10 million a day?over the next decade.
Outside the technical community, however, there is
little appreciation of the grandeur of this program. Only
children and science writers appear enthusiastic, perhaps
because their taxes are minimal. Taxpayers-58 per cent
in a Gallup survey?still ask: Is this trip necessary? And
while others accept the space age, they usually do so
for the wrong reasons.
Nsh_ The United States, and I would guess the Soviet Union,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for R
niA-RDP74-00297R000201500024-1
HISTORY AND DESTINY
While all these factors play some
part in the thrust to the moon, the
pre-eminent reason why the U.S.
is going is that, stated in the sim-
plest of terms, we must do so to
remain a first-class nation. And pre-
cisely because the program is a
matter of national pride, there is
good reason to believe the U.S. can
be first?despite the Soviet lead.
This is not mysticism. Organisms
?from cells to societies?must re-
spond' to stimuli or atrophy. Arnold
Toynbee argues that civilizations
grow (the Greeks) or disintegrate
(the Romans) depending on their
responses to challenges. But there is no need to go back in
history to find examples of challenge and response. On the
evening of Oct. 4, 1957, when the first sputnik streaked
through the night skies, a new era was inaugurated. At
the time, those of us who scan the heavens for portents
were dazzled by the Red Star ascendant and the emer-
gence of Russia in space. Today, perspectives have
changed. If I read the signs correctly, Khrushchev per-
formed an incalculable service?for Americans. In the
1960s, the U.S. will reaffirm its pre-eminence, not only
in space but in most earth-bound sciences.
What happened in the wake of the sputnik challenge
was simply this: The U.S. went into orbit. Social values,
the schools, the governmental structure were subjected
to scrutiny; the issues, if indeed not the outcome, of the
1960 Presidential campaign and election were sharply
defined. The U.S. has successfully put up 62 satellites
compared with thirteen for the Russians. And now this
great nation is committed to going to the moon.
What if we hadn't responded? One scientist says: "We'd
be four years closer to becoming a second-rate nation."
Many, of course, would question this statement. They
hold that the U.S. can find other worthy challenges to
meet here on earth. Most Americans, nuclear physicist
Alvin Weinberg says, would rather belong to the society
that first gave the world a cure for cancer than to the
society that put the first astronaut on Mars. One reply
would be that the U.S. is talented enough to do both.
Another reply is that the exploration of the moon?as well
as the conquest of disease, amelioration of poverty, and all
the goals science now makes possible?is a challenge
worthy of a prideful, humane, adventurous nation.
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Newsw