PRODUCTION FORECASTING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP73T00325R000100020031-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2008
• Sequence Number: 31
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/06/03: CIA-RDP73T00325R000100020031-7
P R'O D U C T I O N F O R E C A S T I N G
To develop an automated system which-will predict production anomalies
and provide management with:
a. A yearly forecast, in monthly increments, showing the required vs
the available manpower for each production division, and
b. A monthly forecast, in daily increments, showing the status of each
production division by "skill code" and "account code block", in terms of
forecast vs actual expenditures of manpower.
A PROPOSED SOLUTION
1. Identify and isolate the.production type personnel.
2. Accept the "on-the-job" availibility of each production type person
as being 1,500 manhour a year.
3. Eliminate the "activity codes" and establish ""skill codes".
4. Tie."skill codes" into the Personnel Accountin System.
5. Eliminate the use of %_ 60 74 8,C3, 9C a thousand account
cods blocks" by production type personnel.
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,
16. The production divisions, in coordination with the Personnel Branc
will forecast the monthly availability of productive manhours.
,'. Develop a set of averages for each "account code block" and "NTP
Functional Area Code" using the FY 70 MIS.
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e
. Combine para 7 with CIA, DIA, Army, Navy and NPIC projec
estimates of product completions.
f. Use the RGEN/Project Monitor Option to portray estimated vs actual
monthly "account code blo ck" and "skill code" information.
. Develop a program which will consolidate the entries in para 9 to
show gross monthly forecasts for the next twelve months.
REQUIREMENTS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
1. Daily MIS manpower inputs with daily report output.
2. Program update capability, when required - eg, major changes to estimate.
3. Only production type personnel time is recorded.
4. Time will be recorded by appropriate project number.
5. Least time recording increment - one-half hour.
Establish a 250000 and a 450000 project, with splits, to reflect
support to Center requirements.
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Approved For Release 2008/06/03: CIA-RDP73TOO325R000100020031-7