U.S. EXPECTS SOVIET TO TEST LARGE NEW MISSILES SOON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP73B00296R000200230003-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 23, 2000
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: May 19, 1971
• Content Type: NSPR

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040
TiE NEW YO&
,
U. S.Expects SomettoT est
Large New Missiles Soon
By WILLIAM BEECHER
? Slat to The New York Tlmeg
WASHINGTON, May 18?Administration officials have
disclosed that the Soviet Union is pressing ahead so rapidly
with its new missile program thlt test firings are expected
rls hin tlittattlit few 'Ant hs.
Flairig.,syps for ,the
bi? .10Antgtontitioatal Avis-
I VR.K.Itall'OPWS011-
ter, east of the Aral Sea in
Kazakhstan in central Asia,
are being rapidly rebuilt to the
same dimensions as the new,
larger silos that have been ap-
pearing all over western Russia
since December, these officials
said.
There are now more than 60
such silos, they said, as against
10 discovered early this year
and 40 reported by the Adminis-
tration officials last month. "If
this pace continues much
longer, we'll have to call it 'a
crash program," one official
declared. , 1
The first tests, expected' this
summer, should provide"da
answering many ,of the m
tions and clarifying much ref,
speculation among experts here
over 'the new program, 'anitysts
said.
Most Government analysts
believe that the new silos will
house either an improved ver-
sion of the SS-9 missile or an
entirely new and larger missile.
In either case the missiles are
expected to carry three or more
independently targetable re-
entry vehicles, commonly called
MIRV warheads.
But despite general concern
over the pace of the new effort,
several officials noted hopefully
that Soviet diplomats had hinted
recently at the possibility that,
as the new silos were fitted
with improved operational mis-
siles, older missiles might be
dismantled.
Up to no the Russiaps Ihave
Continued on Page 16, Column 1
. kept in service thejr older mis-
I,Oles as well as order radar in-
"itallations, antiaircraft artillery
wand other systems, as they
added new models.
Reassuring Replies Given
Informants said that when the
the Russians were asked about
0, new silos at the Vienna
lks on limitation of strategic
aments, they urged the
ericans not to worry. Soviet
legates repeatedly said that
e silos were part of a "'no-
' ernization" program similar to
'tlie United States's moderniza.-
. Zation of its Minuteman and
aris missiles.
About a year ago, the United
Atates started long-planned pro.
'grams to substitute Minuteman-
3 missiles for the 550 older
Minuteman-I's, and to sub-
stitute more advanced Poseidon
missiles for each of thel6 Pola-
ris missiles on 31 of the Navy's
Polaris submarines.
.-PAThe Minuteman - 3 carries
ee MIRV warheads and the
seidon carries from 10 to 14
IRV's. About 450 single-war-
'ad Minuteman-2 missiles will
retained.
Ile Russians, Administration
roes say, did not go so far
to state that older missiles
uld be retired as new mis-
s became operational:
And /now, when the United
tes and the Soviet Union are
ftexripting to negotiate a pos-
Jible numerical limitation on
strategic weapons, some offi-
cials here are skeptical that
Moscow would weaken its bar-
gaining position by voluntarily
dismantling some of its older
missiles.
k:,v-If the Soviet Union should
so, however, this would be
tonsidered a very promising
fsign, suggesting that the Mos-
cow leadership believes it is sp-
. ,proaching a sufficiency of land-
-based missiles and might there-
? :fore be more receptive to a
missile freeze.
'There's Still Time'
"We wouldn't expect them to
,..iear down the old before the
new are in and operational,
anyway," one official said.
"There's still time, and we're
watching closely."
Analysts point out that the
Soviet Union has about 220
SS-7 and SS-8 intercontinental
missiles that were deployed
About a deca.de, ago, These are
nsidered relatively obsolete
:end the most likely tci be re-
'tired if such a course is chosen..
Even if the Russians do not
remove some of the older mis-
siles, officials agree, this would
not preclude a missile freeze.
There is Kecedent, these
spokesmen contend, for the Rus-
Siam; to dig silos for new mis-
,siles even before the missiles
.have been tested. Several years
ago when they started to de-
-ploy the SS-1 1 intercontinental
missile, of which they now have
about 800, they prepared silos
at both operational and test
sites simultaneously. As soon
as the tests were completed,
they started deploying opera-
?-t.tional missiles, thus saving con-
4iderable time.
5?::,'?'Officials believe this same
is being followed in the
''...ease of the new silos. "It shows
lot of confidence on their
::1,part that the system will work,"
.
:one weapons specialist corn-
,
Inented.
One element of the new silo
:,tonstruction effort that puzzles
5,,arialysts here is that excava-
Wons are showing up not only
SS-9 and SS-11 missile com-
plexes in the Ural Mountain
region, but also in an area of
southwest Russia in which the
Russians have stationed about
700 missiles in the 1,000 to
2,000-mile medium and inter-
Mediate range, and aimed at
Western Europe.
? :C1 '
una Seen as Potential Target
< About a year ago the Rus-
ians began putting about 100
KSS-11 missiles into this area.
At is now believed that these
A:missiles are able to hit either
'qargets in Western Europe or,
t More distant targets in China!
and the United States.
But since there are already
many missiles aimed at West-
:ern Europe, and because the
silos would house missiles
..:.,(whose warheads are probably
larger than needed for Euro-
pean targets, some analysts
suggest that the Russians simply
want to take greater 'advan-
tage of existing communica-
tions, radar, storage and related
facilities for the new installs-
.,tions, thus achieving consider-
-:Able financial savings.
Other analysts speculate that
,'the new locations, well west of
:.the Urals, are a defensive
measure, intended to place these
issiles at greater distance
.:ifrom missiles being developed
',.13y the Chinese Communist re-
?,=' Analysts estimate that the
;tew Soviet missile will be able
,to carry either three 5-mega-
ton warheads or six 2-megaton
warheads. A megaton is equi-
valent to one million tons of
TNT. This is the same estimate
that is made for the SS-9
missile, of ,which the Russians
.have almost 300.
Officials here say there is
sonic evidence the Russians may
have started to replace the
single 25-metagon warhead on
some SS-9's with a three-part,
multiple warhead.
The chief cause of American
concern over the larger Soviet ?
missiles is that, if fitted with
accurate MIRV warheads, they
could pose a threat to the
United States's 1,000 Minute-
' man and 54 Titan-2 land-based
ini6siles in a first strike.
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?N.,2W LI
\
Experts See Nuclear Arsenals in Balance
By WILLIAM BEECHER
Specutl to The Near York Times
WASHINGTON, May 20 ?
As the United States and the
Soviet Union seek to halt some
elements of the arms race, their
espective nuclear 'arsenals are
viewed by most American anal-
ysts as being in rough balance.
The Soviet Union has more
and bigger land-based inter-
continental missiles. The United
States has more long-range
bombers and submarine-based
The Soviet Union has in-
stalled some antiballistic mis-
siles around Mostow, while the
United States has only begun
preliminary work toward de-
fensive deployments around
two Minuteman complexes in
the Northwest.
But the United States be-
lieves that it enjoys a clear
lead in missile accuracy and
reliability, in rnutiple warhead
technology and in defensive
weaponary.
One driving factor behind the
Nixon Administration's move
to achieve a partial arms-limita-
tion agreement, some officials
say, is a strong desire to stop
the build-up of large Soviet
missiles, which potentially
threaten to make the Minute,
man force vulnerable to a first
strike.
Next Phase Scheduled
In the next phase of nego-
tiations, which will take place
in Helsinki in July, the United
States plans to seek an ,agree4
inent that would forbid con-
struction by the Russians of
additional land-based intercon-
tinental missiles and would per-
mit a small-scale American
effort to defend some Minute-
man complexes.
If achieved, this agreement
would ease immediate con-
cerns about the Minuteman of-
ficials say, while efforts con-
tinue toward a more compre-
hensive second-stage agree-
ment that would include mis-
sile submarines, long-range
bombers and, conceivably,
American fighter-bombers in
Europe and Soviet medium-
range missiles aimed at West-
ern Europe.
However, the United States
has made it plain that it would
prefer to deal with the ques-
tion of European-based nuclear
delivery systems in talks that
would include members of the
Atlantic Alliance and the War-
saw Pack.
A =JOE 'factor that lenl
some urgerfey Ito the Adminis
tration's effort to end the im-
passe on strategic weapons1
talks, officials say, was the
surprisingly rapid construction
i over the last six months of
more than 60 larger missiles
silos in the Soviet Union.
Minuteman Danger Cited i
Since American analysts
believe that these silos will
house an improved or a new
missile carrying three or more
multiple independently target-
able re-entry vehicles, they
argued that the 1,000-missile
Minutemen force would be in
increased danger unless new
Soviet construction could be
halted.
Their argument was based
on the premise that the Rus-
sians would also place three-
part MIRV warheads on the
nearly 300 big SS-9 missiles
in their force. There is some
evidence, not yet conclusive,
that his process may have be-
gun.
In March, Defense Secretary
Melvin R. Laird provided Con-
gress with an assessment of
wherethe arms balance would
stand by the middle of this
year.
Mr. Laird said that by mid-
year the Soviet Union would
have 1,500 intercontinental mis-
siles and the United States
1,054; the Soviet Union would
have 400 submarine-based mis-
siles and the United States 656;
the Soviet Union would have
175 to 195 long-range bombers
and the United States 569.
The r)efense Secretary indic-
ated, however, that the 'United
States would markedly lead the
Soviet Union in the total num-
ber of nuclear warheads and
bombs with 4,600, compared
with 2,000 for the Russians.
Two or more weapons carried
by each of the American B-52's
make up a large share of this
numerical advantage, officials
explained.
64 Galosh Missiles
On missile defense, the
Russians have 64 Galosh anti-
ballistic missiles deployed on
the outskirts of Moscow. Though
the United States has not yet
deployed its Spartan and Sprint
defensive missiles, it, has built
radar and computer facilities
for such antiballistic missiles at
Minuteman installations at
Grand Forks Air Force Base in
North Dakota and Malmstrom
Air Force Base in Montana.
Russian missiles, and partic-
ularly the SS-9 and the mis-
sile for the new larger silos,
are estimated to be capable
of carrying either three war-
heads of five magatons each or
six warheads of two megatons
each. A megaton is equivalent
to one million tons of TNT.
By comparison, the Minute-
man-3 carries two or three
warheads of 160 kilotons and
the Poseidon missile carries 10
to 14 warheads of 40 kilotons
each. A kiloton is equivalent to
1,000 tons of TNT.
While the United States
MIRV's are probably accurate
enough to hit Soviet missile
silos, there is a question as
to whether they are power-
ful enough to destroy such tar-
gets. And while the Russian
MIRV's are thought to be large
enough, they are not considered
accurate enough. But the So-
viet Union will presumably im-
prove accuracy in time, and
the United States would not be
barred from making its MIRV's
more powerful.
These developments, officials
say, could set the stage for
an agreement intended to re-
duce the fear of a first strike by
substantially reducing the
number of missiles possessed
by each side.
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The ttew York Times May 21, 197I
The abovela_plis,supeilin,posed on a U.S. Navy photo of
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 :CflibifitiaRgSUMMWAPIR2sefiAIMMAn strategic
weapons systems expected in mid-1971. U.S. is ahead in
sub-based missiles and planes, Soviet Union in ICBM's.
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2
THE NEW YORK TIMES
DATE
Some non-Governmental
C.I.A. SAID 16 001181
PENTAGON'S VIEW
ON MISSILE THREAT
Senate G.O.P. Sources Say
Agency Thinks Soviet Silos
Are for Existing Arms
PROTECTIVE STEP SEEN
'Moscow Is Believed to Be
'Hardening' Installations
for Its SS-11's
By JOHN W. FINNEY
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, May 25 ?
Senate Republican sources re-
ported today that the Central
Intelligence Agency concluded
that at least two-thirds of the
large new silo holes recently
detected in the Soviet Union
were intended for the relatively
small SS-11 intercontinental
missile and not for a large new
weapon as the Defense Depart-
ment has suggested.
This assessment casts a dif-
ferent light on Moscow's stra-
tegic intentions at a crucial
time in the negotiations with
the Soviet Union to achieve
some limitation on defensive
and offensive strategic weapons
It now appears to some arms
control specialists that the So-
viet Union, rather than seeking
to achieve a first-strike capa-
bility against the United States
with large new missiles, is fol-
lowing the American course of
trying to protect its missiles
against attack with "hardened"
silos.
60 New Silos Detected
Some 60 large new missiles
silos in the Soviet Union have
been detected in recent months
by means of reconnaissance
satellites. The C.I.A. was said
to have concluded that at least
two-thirds were intended for
the SS-11 intercontinental mis-:
site, which is comparable to
the Minuteman ICBM of the
sources with access to Central
Intelligence Agency information
said that all hut 15 of the new
holes were situated in existing
SS-11 missile fields. Secretary Gives Warning
The Senate Republican Then, in a speech April 22
sources said thay had been in- before the American Newspa-i
formed of the C.I.A. assessment per Publishers Association, Mr.'
?by non-Governmental arms con- Laird said. the United States
trol experts who earlier had thisod fresh intelligence the b
nteilnligence sobering been briefed by the intelligence n
fact that the Soviet Union is
agency. These sources declined
to be identified by name.
The Defense Department de-
clined today to comment on the
reported C.I.A. assessment be-
cause, as a department spokes-
man put it, "We would not
have any comment on a specu-
lative report like that." Last week, Administration of-f
But the spokesman said the, ficials were reported to have
Union was
newas
sn
department still held to the said that ea
at tehneSd
cwwieitthU
interpretation that the Sovie13
t;
firings
so rapidly that
Union was deploying a modi-Zst sn
gs of an im! roved
fled version of its large SS-9 Y
SS-9 or an entirel new and
intercontinental missile or an !larger missile were expected
by
Continued on Page 4, Column 3 this summer.
"We cannot tell at this time
whether it is a modified ver-
sion of the 55-9 or whether
it is an entirely new Missile
system," he said,
nvoved in a new----and appar-
ently extensive?ICBM con-
struction program."
He warned that if this Soviet
missile build-up continued, the
Defense Department might find;
it necessary to seek a supple-;
mentary appropriation for more
strategic weapons.
entirely new missile system.
Much of the concern and
;peculatien over the intended
)urpose for the new silos has
,prung from their unusual size.
According to data obtained
iy the satellites, the holes were
arger than those that had pre-
riousiy been dug for the SS-9,
t large intercontinental missile
hat Defense Department offi-
ials have suggested the Soviet
Jnion may be deploying as a
'first strike" weapon against
he United States's Minuteman
force. This in turn gave rise to
official speculation that the So-
viet Union was planning to de-
ploy an improved version of the
SS-9 or perhaps an even larger,
more powerful weapon.
Senator Henry M. Jackson,
who first disclosed the detec-
tion of the new Silo holes on
national television program
March 7, add at the time that
"the Russians are now in the
Process of deploying a new
generation, an advanced gener-
ation of offensive systems."
The Washington Democrat, ?a
member of the Senate Armed
Services Committee, described
the development as "ominous
indeed."
The Defense Department took
a somewhat more cautious in-
terpretation, saying that It had
detected new ICM construc-
tion but was not sure what the
Soviet Union's intentions were.
But in a television appear-
ance on March 10, Melvin R.
Laird, the Secretary of Defense,
said that the silo construction
"confirms the fact that the So-
viet Union is going forward
?
United States.Approved For Re
1 On the basis of new intelli-
gence information, the C.I.A.
was said today to have con-
cluded that the larger holes
could be explained not by a
Soviet move to a larger missile
but by an engineering step in-
tended to protect the existing
Soviet missile force.
According to the intelligence
agency's analysis, the larger
holes can be explained as an ef-
fort to "harden the silos, by
emplacement of a concrete
shell around them, to protect
the weapons against the blast
effects of a nuclear explosion.
The larger hole is required to
accommodate the concrete
liners, according to the C.I.A.
analysis.
Old IVIisslie Fields Utilized
It was said that the first
evidence that the Soviet Union
might be "hardening" its mis-
sile sites rather than develop-
ing a new missile system ap-
peared in the fact that the new
holes were detected primarily
in existing 5S41 missile fields.
If the Soviet Union was de-
ploying a new weapon, it pre-
sumably would not situate the
new missile emplacements
among older missiles, according
to the C.I.A. view,
The conclusive piece of evi-
dence was said to have been
received early last week when
reconnaissance satellite pic-
tures were received showing
silo liners arriving at the mis-
sile holes. The photographs
were said to have indicated that
the liners at neither the SS-11
nor the SS-9 sites were big
W01200029614800200281069
??
PAGE
missiles, and those at the SS-9
sites did not seem intended for
wevons of altered design.
The United States started
hardening its Minuteman silos
some years ago as it saw the
Soviet Union expanding its
mum forces, and then began
"superhardening" them as the
Soviet Union began deploying
the SS-9 missile.
Some arms control special-
ists now maintain that the So-
viet Union now is turning to
hardening its SS-I1 and SS-9
missiles as it sees the United
States deploying multiple inde-
pendently targeted re-entry ve-
hicles, or multiple warheads,
known as MV', which po-
tentially could acquire the ac-
curacy to strike precisely at
Soviet missile sites.
This was a point made today
before the Senate Appropria-
tions Committee by Dr. Her-
bert Scoville Jr., a former of-
ficial of the C.I.A. and the
Disarmament and Arms Con-
trol Agency, now chairman of
the Strategic Weapons Com-
mittee of the Federation of
American Scientists.
A hardening of the Soviet
missile sites, he observed
"would not contribute to a
first-strike capability and, if
anything, would be an indica-
tion that a first strike was not
a critical Soviet policy ob.
jective,"
If it now turns out that the
Soviet Union is only hardening
the 55-9 and SS-I1 missile
silos, he said, "We must lls$C
ourselves how many times we
Are going to allow the 'wean-
oneers' to come before the
Congress and the people shout-
ing 'missile gap,' when in real-
ity they are only creating an-
other 'credibility gap."
-2
_t-
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AG
'New Sov lo Building Seen
As Protection for Two Missiles
By Michael Get*
Washington Post Staff Writar
The Pentagon said yester-
day that the new, large missile
silos being built in The soviet
Union now appear to be 'de-
signed for two different kinds
of ICBMs, but conceded that
more than half of the new
holes may be for the relatively
small and less threatening SS-11
ICBM.
Defense officials said that
new intelligence gathered
since late last month indicated
that the silo building program
---which touched off scares
here of a new arms race?may
be meant in part to provide
better protection for Russian
missiles, both the SS-11s and
the huge SS-9s, against U.S. at-
tack rather than as a big ex-
pansion of the Soviet SS-9
force.
However, Pentagon spokes-
man Jerry W. Friedheim made
it clear that the Pentagon's
"best judgment remains that
either new missiles or modifi-
cations of existing missiles"
will go into the "two separate
systems of silo improvement."
Privately, Defense officials
say they believe the most
likely prospect now is that the
Soviets will? combine their silo
hardening effort with installa-
tion of improved versions of
both missiles, rather than with
any completely new ICBM
even bigger and more ominous
than the existing SS-9.
Of some 60 new ICBM silos
that U.S. spy satellites have
spotted since this February,
well-informed defense officials
say that 20 to 25 are under
construction in missile fields
normally associated with exist-
ing SS-9 bases and 35 to 40 at
SS-11 bases. No missiles have
actually been installed in any
of the new holes so far, the of-
ficials say.
Friedheim yesterday 6t-
plained that the original de-
tection of the new silos showed
"diameters large enough to en-
compass any missile in'the So
viet inventory."
Disclosure of the new silos
was first made publicly on
March 7 by Sen. Henry M.
Jackson (D-Wash.), and was
later confirmed by Defense
Secretary Melvin R. Laird.
'While the Pentagon has said
all along that it was not sure
if the holes were for a com-
pletely new missile or for a
modification of the existing
SS4, the impression was gen-
erally created that whatever it
was, it was very big. It is the
SS-9, equipped with multiple
warheads, which the Pentagon
has portrayed as the major
threat to knocking out U.S.
Minuteman ICBMs in a sur-
prise attack.
There was no official indica-
tion given until yesterday that
the new holes might be for
protecting small ICBMs as
well.
The SS-11 carries a much
smaller warhead than the SS-9
and is not viewed as a first
strike weapon.
Friedheim said that while it
was still unclear what Soviet
intentions were "new infroma-
tion now available to us leads
us to conclude the Soviets
may be involved in two sepa-
rate silo improvement pro-
grams" rather than just one.
The new evidence, other
sources say, was photos of dif-
ferent size protective concrete
liners for the missile silos
which reduce their inside di-
ameters and of different base
layouts used for the two mis-
siles.
Friedheim said that in the
past the Russians have in-
stalled SS-11 ICBMs into what
heretofore have been bases
used exclusively for shorter
range missile.
Privately, Defense officials
conceded that the latest devel-
opments, if they do not
change, are less provocative
than a big Soviet drive to add
AiI1 larger missiles. Splitting
the qiew silos between SS-9s
and S'S.LIts 'also sis to fit in
with 1MIlbje vps' a t.
strateg,le grins limll4tibij ls.
Washington hopes to hold
idown the number of Soviet
1SS-9s to about 300.
The Soviets now have al-
most 288 SS-9s on the firing
line and presumably will add
20 to 25 more in the new silos.
Friedheim denied there had
been disagreement between
the CIA and the Pentagon
over assessing the meaning of
the silo construction program
in recent weeks.
Nevertheless, Sen. William
Proxmire (D-Wis.) yesterday
called the episode the "the
shortest missile gap in his-
tory."
Proxmire accused both
Laird and Jackson of whip-
ping up "a series of scare 'em
stories" based on the "wholly
unproved assumption that
these holes were all designed
for the huge new 25-megaton
SS-9 missiles."
"The lesson is clear," Prox-
mire contended. "The practice
of selective disclosure of par-
tially analyzed intelligence
data by the Pentagon and its
allies should stop. Congress
and the American public must
,not be swept off their feet by
leaks designed merely to pro-
pagandize for a bigger and fat-
ter military budget."
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21 Awl IJ
'Z. HE NEW YORK vS
Pentagoragys the Soviet
May Ifaiv 2 New ICBM's
By WILLIAM BEECHER
Spec.al to 'I he Nem York Times
Agency had concluded that
two-thirds of the large new silo
boles were intended for the
relatively small SS-11 intercon-
tinental missile and not for a
large new weapon, as the De-
fense Department had suggested
previously.
While this latest suggestion
about the new silos left a num-
ber of questions unanswered,
officials in various Government
agencies insisted ?that this
seeming confusion accurately
reflected the wide areas of un-
certainty that exist within the
types of weapons, were actual- intelligence community.
ly fashioning larger silos rein- The Central Intelligence Ag-
forced with concrete and other ency declined to comment on
features to increase the silos' reports that it differed with
ability to withstand nuclear the Pentagon's interpretation,
attack. but officials at the Defense pd-
The Pentagon officials were partment and other agencies
WASHINGTON, May 26?De-
fense Department officials said
today that the 60 new missile
silos detected in the Soviet
Union recently might be in-
tended for two ?new types of
tintercontinental missiles rather
than one, as suggested earlier.
But a Pentagon official con-
ceded that there was still suf-
ficient uncertainty about this
that a quite different assessment
advanced yesterday could not
be excluded. This assessment
was that the Russians, rather
than seeking to deploy new
reacting to reports by Senate
Republican source?teaterday
Ithat the Centralell ? ligenc?
laid there was no basic
'the tik.?
edird,
-o etn
,
irs, said it i
ghout the G
ment that the new snot
of two sizes, but that the larg-
est Soviet missile, the SS-9,
could fit into either one.
Other sources explained that
the idea of two different im-
proved or all-new missiles
arose in large part from the
fact that Russia was rapidly
rebuilding launching silos for
both the large SS-9 and the
smaller SS-11 missile at the
Tyuratam missile test center
near the Aral Sea.
The two types of rebuilt silos
at the test center, they say,
appear to conform precisely to
the new silos being constructed
at operational SS-9 and SS-11
missile complexes in the Ural
Mountains.
Qualified sources explained
that when the new holes first
started appearing last Decem-
ber, they were measured at
being slightly under 30 feet in
diameter, somewhat larger than
holes for the SS-9 silo.
"It was not a question of the'
this spring, Pentgoi3 and other'
officials specula d that these
Approved For Reie 104 " Ar
en
imptoved S-9 or, an (fnurety
new missiles Pentligon Officials
streskd the' latter tw,6 possi-
bilities in most iiublie and pri-
vate statements.
Some Holes Are Larger
The new boles appeared at
five of the six SS-9 complexes
and at several SS-11 complexes.
Within recent weeks, it was
discovered that some of the
holes, at both types of com-
plexes, were two or three feet
narrower than the others.
Then, more recently, intelli-
gence reports showed that con-
crete liners placed inside these
holes left inner cores of two
different sizes. The difference
between the two, sources say,
is four feet.
The SS-9 has a diameter of
about 10 feet, small enough to
fit into either of the two silo
types, officials say. The SS-11
has a diameter of roughly 6
feet.
Officials now note that from
reconnaissance satellite alti-
tudes of roughly 100 miles, it
was difficult at first to discern
the slight differences between
the two types of excavations.
The insertion of concrete mis-
sile liners, however, made clear,
tiey said that two types of
were involved.
Nut officials concede that if
the Majority of the new silos
ere designed for smaller SS-11
type missiles, this would be
c,onsidered a lot less menacing
than if all were used for very
large missiles of the SS-9 type
The SS-9, they explain, car-
ries a nuclear warhead of 25
megatons and could carry
three warheads of five mega-
tons each, or six of two meg-
atons each. A megaton is
equivalent to a million tons of
TNT.
If equipped with such large
nUlltiPle warheads with ac-
OtliVeS approaching a quarter
1). sts say, the
Rid to
have just under 3.0 oEIT:SS-9
The SS-11, by way of con-
trast, carries a single warhead
of roughly one megaton, offi-
cials note, and is not considered
as much of a threat to the Min-
uteman. It could not carry very
large multiple warheads, they
conclude. The Russians report-
edly have about 800 SS-11's.
When asked about the new
silos at arms control talks in
Vienna recently, Soviet officials
ropprtedly told American off i-
ci not to worri $aying the
efigrfteliteZ a
tirttea 'states mod-
ernizatfn or the Mittman:3.
The United States for about
a year has been replacing early
model Minuteman-1 missiles
with the Minuteman-3, carrying
two or three warheads of about
160 kilotons each. A kiloton is
equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT.
One hundred silos have been
equipped with the Minuteman-3,
in a program calling for 550
such missiles.
In the course of rebuilding
the old Minuteman silos, the
United States has been adding
more concrete and improved
suspension systems to increase
by a factor of three, the abil-
ity of the new missiles to with-
stand a nearby hit.
P73600296R000200230003-2
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73B00296Rq0920023j0.003-2
THE NEW YORK TIMES DATE Utfmittl PAGE
Intelligence:
I Spy,
You Spy,
But What
Do We See?
WASHINGTON?Eleven years
ago it was the "missile gap," and
before that there was the "bomb-
er gap." Two years ago there
was the "first-strike threat" of
large Soviet SS-9 missiles. And
now there is the "big hole"
threat.
Through all those Soiriet
threats?each one of which at the
time was more presumed than
real?runs a common American
strand. On the basis of disturb-
ing 'yet inconclusive intelligence
information, the Administration
?and the Defense Department in
particular?drew ominous con-
clusions about Soviet strategic
intentions and urged a new
round of 'weapons build-up by
the United States.
The latest case in point in-
volved the big missile silo holes
that American reconnaissance
satellites began detecting in the
Soviet Union, starting last De-
cember. As yet, they are just
holes, admittedly larger than
those the Soviets have dug be-
fore, but that did not stop the
Defense Department and its Con-
gressional allies from drawing
conclusions about the missiles the
Soviet Union intended to put in
the silos.
Senator Henry M. Jackson of
Washington, who first disclosed
the detection of the large new
holes on a national television pro-
gram, warned that the "Russians
are now in the process of de-
ploying a new generation, an
advanced generation of offensive
systems." Defense Secretary Mel-
vin R. Laird, on another tele-
vision show, followed up by
stating that the silo construction
"confirms the fact that the Soviet
Union is going forward with the
construction of a large missile
system." Coupled with these
statements were warnings that
the strategic balance might? be
nen MSC week, through Re-
publican sources in the Senate,
It came out that the Central In-
telligence Agency believed that
at least two-thirds of the 60 silo
holes detected so far were for
the Soviet SS-11. This is a rela-
tively small intercontinental mis-
sile comparable to the United
States Air Force's Minuteman,
and the Defense DepartmenChas
acknowledged that it is too mien
to present a first-strike threat
to the American retaliatory force.
The size of the holes, the C.I.A.
surmised, could be explained by
the possibility that the Soviet
Union was "hardening" its mis-
sile silos against attack, just as
the United States has been doir.W
for its Minutemen.
After that disclosure, the De-
fense Department began retreat-
ing. The new holes, it conceded,
could be for "hardening" with
concrete liners. But still, the Pen-
tagon said, they were big enough
to hold two new types of missiles,
or perhaps improved models of
the SS-l1 and SS-9. At any rate,
the Defense Department admit-
ted, the intelligence information
was too inconclusive to draw
definitive judgments. That was a
far cry from the impression cre-
ated earlier by the Defense De-
partment, that the Soviet Union
was deploying an improved ver-
sion of the SS-9 or perhaps even
a larger new missile aimed at
a first-strike capability.
"Ws have just witnessed the
shortest missile gap in hlitory,"
prociahneti Sepator Prox-
mire of Wisconsin, the Pentagon's
gadfly. "In a fritrith, Nvithout the
United States lifting a finger or
spending a dime, this missile gap
was closed. The 'scare-'em' tech-
nique boomeranged."
Perhaps, as suggested by Sena-
tor Proxmire, there was just an
element of politics in the selective
disclosure of intelligence infor-
mation about the big holes. Every
spring, just as regularly as the
cherry blossoms bloom on the
Tidal Basin, there crop up dire
new warnings about Soviet
weapons with a timing that just
happens to coincide with Con-
gressional consideration of the
defense budget.
The problem, however, goes
deeper than political use of in-
telligence information, which is
probably inevitable when that
information has to be translated
into policy and appropriations by
tipping In favor of Moscow. theupoliticlans in the Executive
? --Approved For Redealsea2Madi1113 IrCiANIRDP73B00296R000200230003-2
the difficulty, as the Nixon Ad-
ministration is coming to realize,
lies in the disjointed way that
intelligence is gathered and an-
alyzed.
In principle, the C.I.A. was set
up after World War II as a non-
policy-making agency that could
etovide unbiased intelligence an-
alyais. Its director, presently
fticlard M. Helms, was to be the
ftesident's principal intelligence
turStser. But in practice, intelli-
&et iii,ras never completely cen-
irklized, and the C.I.A. directors
discovered that it is im-
feigiible to divorce analysis of
inTe)Itgence from policy.
-'1'he Central Intelligence Di-
rector, for example, has virtually
no authority over the 3,000-man
Defense Intelligence Agency,
which helps explain why the
C.I.A. and the Defense Depart-
ment could reach such differing
interpretations over the big holes.
Even if intelligence operations
should be further centralized?
perhaps at the White House
level, as is now being considered
by the Nixon Administration?
the problem would not be com-
pletely solved. The underlying
difficulty is that intelligence is
not a game of certainties but of
conjectures. As in the case of
the big holes, certain conjectures
must be drawn on the basis of
limited, circumstantial facts, and
inevitably the conclusions tend
to reflect the philosophical out-
look and responsibilities of the
policymaker.
With a responsibility for na-
tional security, the Defense Sec-
retary has a natural tendency to
choose the most pessimistic
among the range of conjectures
reached from agreed-upon but
limited intelligence facts. That is
what Mr. Laird did when he pro-
jected two years ago that the
Soviet Union would deploy 500
SS-9'a by 1975, and what he did
ZT1
when he saw the pictures of the
big holes.
The difficulty is that this kind
of approach can lead to a self-
fulfilling form of "worst case"
analysis, in which the worst that
is assumed about Soviet inten-
tions comes true because of the
American reaction ? or vice
versa. Thus, the United States
sees a "missile gap" and starts
rapidly deploying them on land
and on sea. The Soviet Union
then starts deploying missiles at
a great rate until it has more
land-based missiles than the
United States, which starts talk
of another missile gap when
those big holes are spotted.
Testifying last week before the
Senate Appropriations Commit-
tee, Dr. Herbert Scoville Jr.,
former Deputy Director for Re-
search of the C.I.A., said that if
it now turns out that the Soviet
Union is putting SS-11's in the
big holes "then we must ask
ourselves how many times are
we going to allow the 'weap-
oneers' to come before Congress,
shouting 'missile gap' and 'tech-
nology gap,' when in reality they
are only creating another 'cred-
ibility gap,' through selective dis-
closure of partially analyzed in-
telligence, in order to panic the
country into expensive weapons
programs."
That question is now beginning
to be asked in Congress, which
is far less gullible and more
sophisticated than it was a dec-
ade ago, when it was willing to as-
sume the unproved worst about
Soviet intentions. Perhaps there
is also a change in attitude down
at the White House, where the
President is willing to accept the
possibility of an agreement limit-
ing defensive ABM systems de-
spite all the Pentagon talk about
those Soviet offensive missiles.
This change of attitude can prob-
ably be more important than any
reorganization of intelligence
agencies in preventing the Exec-
utive Branch and Congress from
seeing missiles in holes where
none yet exist.
?JOHN W. FTNNEY
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R00
THE NEW
CHINA'S ICBM TEST
SAID TO BE CLOSER
Analysts Expect Firing Into
Indian Ocean?Work on
Solid Fuel Reported
By WILLIAM BEECHER
Special to The New York T1me
WASHINGTON, May 30 ?
China, whose long-range mis-
sile program has lagged behind
American predictions, appears
on the verge of two important
breakthroughs, in the view of
some analysts here.
China is rapidly getting into
position to test-fire its first
liquid-fuel intercontinental bal-
listic missile beyond its bor-
ders, probably into the Indian
Ocean, they say.
In addition, China has built a
solid-fuel production plant and
is developing a solid-fuel ICBM,
the analysts say.
The preparations for the
launch beyond China's borders
include the outfitting of a
special tracking ship and the
extension of missile range
tracking stations in Sinkiang
Province. But political consid-
erations, the analysts say, may
cause the Chinese to defer such
testing for several months.
A senior weapons expert says
that it is far from clear whether
China will follow the pattern
of the United States and the
Soviet Union and first deploy
liquid-fuel ICBM's before mov-
ing to solid-fuel weapons, or
will start with the more stable
solid-fuel system.
It is estimated that it will
probably take at least three
years, after initial tests, for
China to move to its first group
of operational ICBM's. The
technology of solid fuels as
well as liquid fuels should be
mastered by that time, the
weapons specialist suggested.
Most analysts agree that
China is capable of launching
an intercontinental missile any
time it chooses. Some intel-
ligence experts believe China
has already done so, although
on a shorter course.
Late last year, they say,
China fired a three-stage mis-
sile from a new launch site in
northeast Manchuria into west-
ern Sinkiang Province, over a
2200. mile course. Some an-
alysts, on theA50-644
YORK TIMES
of the stages as seen in recon-
naissance photos and other evi-
dence, calculated that the mis-
sile could have been fired at
least 3,500 miles, which would,
have carried it out over Indial
into the Indian Ocean.
In arms-control talks, the
United States and Russia have
defined an ICBM as any ballis-
tic missile that can travel over
3,000 miles.
Defense Secretary Melvin R.
Laird told Congress in March
about the probability of China's
capacity to launch such a mis-
sile when he said: "The start
of testing has not yet been
confirmed, but a reduced range
test of an ICBM may have oc-
curred late in 1970."
Analysts say the 2,200-mile
shot was believed to have been
made with a liquid-fuel missile
similar to the rockets that
China used to orbit a 381-pound
satelite in April, 1970, and a
486-pound satelite in March.
The first out-of-country tests
are expected to range between
3,500 and 4,500 miles. The In-
dian Ocean is considered the
most likely landing point, but
some analysts say that a test-
firing into the Pacific Ocean
is not ruled out.
For several months China
has been equipping the 12,000-
ton freighter Hsian Yang Hung
in #...sjlipyard near Canton with
space traCking and telemetry
0093-2
devices, sources say. One
analyst says the work has been
doinpleted and that the Vessel
sailed into the Indian Ocean
recently on a cruise to familiar-
ize the crew with the ship and
her special gear.
Analysts point out that the
United States and the Soviet
Union normally employ sev-
eral telemetry ships to monitor
their own and each other's
missile shots. The job can be
done?but not as well?with
one such vessel, they say.
Officials suggest that both
the Soviet Union and the
United States will probably
send more telemetry ships to
monitor the Chinese tests than
China will have available.
But many analysts say that
Peking is so anxious to get
admitted to the United Nations
this fall that it is likely to defer
its first ICBM test until after
that issue has been resolved.
A minority view is that
Peking will go ahead and test
an ICBM as soon as it feels
technologically ready. Political-
ly, analysts say, this could
convince some countries that a
nation moving into superpower
weapons status ought not be
excluded from the world body.
China is not believed to
have tested a solid-fuel missile,
but analysts say that the build-
ing of a production facility
shoWS China is serious about
this' *fort; All of America's
land.? akd submarine-based
ICBM's ar,,e21we'fftl by solid
fuel, wit'tire exceptlen of 54
old Titan12 missiles. The Soviet
Union has been working on
solid fuel development but to
date has deployed only about
100 SS-13 weapons using this
propellant.
Analysts say China has suc-
cessfully tested three-megaton
thermo-nuclear devices believed
to be destined for its ICBM.
The current estimate is that
China could have a force of 10
to 2-5 Such essire-s?Wifh`a 6,000
4
Imile,,,rapge by the mrd--197 s.
Defensively, analysts say-the
force might be sufficient fran
China's viewpoint to deter an
attack by either Russia or the
United States by threatening to
retaliate against major popula-
tion centers. Offensively, if
China should be engaged in a
struggle in the Far East in
which either of the superpowers
were tempted to intervene, the
analysts say Peking might warn
that it would consider resorting
to a first sttike aimed at RS-
Sian or AmMetiretties.
Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2
Ap`prthr611-Pol-Aelese-?2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP731300191R4/4402300-013-(2
Study Finds
SS-9 Warheads
Lack Accuracy
By Michael Getler
Washington Post Staff Writer
A new study sponsored
by the Pentagon and CIA
estimates that multiple ?
warheads flight-tested thus
far with the giant Soviet
SS-9 intercontinental mis-
siles are not accurate
enough to knock out U.S.
Minutemen ICBMs in a sur-
prise attack, according to
informed government
sources.
Furthermore, the study is
said to estimate that the war-
head accuracy probably can-
not be improved enough with
the techniques now being used
to achieve a first-strike capa-
bility.
The study, which was com-
pleted in April, was carried
out for the government by
TRW Inc., a large defense con-
tractor in California with an
excellent technical reputation.
Informed officials say there
is no evidence that the Soviets
have flight-tested any new
kind of multiple warhead for
the SS-9 beyond those dis-
cussed in the study.
While some additional tests
of the big missile are expected
later this year, officials say
they are uncertain whether
these flights will reveal a new
and more accurate version of
the SS-9 or will merely be
tests of existing missiles
launched from protective silos
the Soviets are building.
In any event, some govern-
ment weapons analysts view
the new study as lessening
still further Pentagon fears
that by 1975 the Soviets could
deal a surprise knock-out to
all but a handful of America's
1,000-missile Minuteman force.
Last year, TRW made a sim-
ilar technical assessment of
the SS-9 for the Pentagon. In
that study, officials say the
firm gave a "lukewarm" en-
dorsement, based on earlier
SS-9 testing, to the idea that
the Soviet triplet warheads
could be of the MIRV type in
which each of the three war-
heads can AbffitivoirmaR
ate Minuteman oith
enough accuracy to knock it
out.
The new StUdy, officials say,
?.reverses that earlier opinion
that MIRVs were involved.
Weapons experts in a num-
ber of government agencies,
Including the Pentagon, esti-
mate that it would take the
Soviets two to three more
years to perfect and begin de-
ployment of a more accurate
MIRV. It Would then take sev-
eral more years to equip the
entire force of SS-9s, which
now numbers about 288.
Agreement Sought
The Pentagon has estimated
that the Soviets would need
some 450 such MIRV-equipped
missiles to wipe out the Min-
uteman force. At the Strategic
Arms Limitations Talks, the
United States is trying to
work out an agreement that
?
would limit the SS-9s to.about
300.
The new study also appears
to contradict recent Pentagen
estimates that the Soviets will
have a MIRV "capability" in
1972. However, some officials
say it is true that the current
Soviet multiple warhead sys-
tem could be viewed as a
MIRV, except that it is not a
very good one.
The Soviets are said to use a
system of small rails inside '
the nose cone of the SS-9 to
launch the three warheads to
separate targets that are rea-
sonably close together. By
varying the time each war-
head moves down these rails,
the missiles can be made to
land in a pattern that has, in
tests, resembled the layout of
Minuteman silos.
This, at first, led some ana-
lysts to believe that the Sovi-
ets were developing a MIRV
to attack Minuteman in a sur-
prise first strike.
Now, however, it has appar-
ently been concluded that the
technique is both inaccurate
and also inflexible because the
Minuteman patterns vary
Widely.
The U.S. MIRV now being
deployed on the Minuteman
and Poseidon submarines is
more sophisticated, using a
so-cilled "space bus" with its
own guidance system to target
each warhead accurately in
the bus to a widely separated
Less Powerful Weapons
The U.S. MIRVs, however,
are only a fraction as power-
ful as the huge Soviet weap-
ons, and the Pentagon has de-
clared that this lack of nu-
clear punch also means that
Minutemen are no threat to
Soviet missiles buried in un-
derground silos.
On Capitol Hill yesterday,
the SS-9 also figured in sharp
questioning of high-ranking
Pentagon officials by Sen.
Stuart Symington (D-Mo.)
$yrftington, at an open ses-
stop of a Senate Foreign re-
lations suhgoarittee on dis-
armament, dill-ilea ths,t.Pent-
agon -witn.ess were sa,sing dif-
ferent things about a possible
U.S.-Soviet agreement at
SALT than had the chief
U.S. negotiator, Gerard
Smith, before the same com-
mittee in a closed hearing on
Tuesday.
Appearing at yesterday's
session was Adm. Thomas Il.
Moorer, Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Dr.
Jc;fin S. Foster Jr., the Penta-
gon's chief scientist.
Both officials, under ques-
tioning, said that any SALT
agreement must include sim-
ultarleeus limitation on of-
fensive missiles as well as
ABM defense systems.
"Tp?tr positien," Symihztpn
"4-
d to, Foster, '`is not the
e Smith's."' ."-Symington
alti4 ..he,..uaderstood Smith to
say in closed session that the
hoped for SALT agreement
would provide for an ABM
agreement while talks con-
tinue on the offensive weap-
ons question. Foster said
it was his understanding that
"any controls would go in
simultaneously."
Symington pressed Foster
to say if Smith's interpreta-
tion was "right or wrong"
Foster hesitated, then said he
did not feel it was helpful
"to get engaged in seman-
tics."
Foster said he did not think
there were any differences
ill his uncierstandiug of the
I
hoped for agreerhent and
Smith's, although defense offi-
cials later conceded privately
that it was not yet clear if
the Soviets completely under-
stood or agree to U.S. goals
on limiting offensive missiles.
After Moorer mentioned the
SS-9 threat against the "sur-
vivability of our ICBMs," Sy-
mington, who is also a mem-
ber of the Armed Services
Committee ? including the
CIA subcommittee ? said he
did not a;ree with "the as-
sessment that the SS-9 was
accurate (nough for a first
s truce."
lergebkobloglarr.1.c81-RbP73B00296R000200230003-2
C OSFrAire
SralOte 0 IV
Actilt4-01
ss-7
614;
lkiligotWiqf !tease 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2
N STAR
r
DATE
Russian Missile Spread
Exceeds U.S. Estimate
By OttR KELLY
Star Staff Writer
The., Soviet Union is anovin
SAL xi tan_
been expected inson&tigtion o
-siTiwhIgkeark.tole,twa
-nei:-"alnerations
jtij PeAt a-
on sources slidjohlay.
TlTe ekisrence of the new silos
? some of them apparently de-
signed for a missile at least as
large, or larger, than the 25 meg-
aton SS-9--was first revealed
in early March by Senator Hen
ry M. Jackson, D-Wash.
In a Senate hearing on Apri
19, he said the deployment rate
? might approach the 70 silos this
year.
But Dr. John S. Foster Jr.,
director of Defense Research
and Engineer in g, replied:
". . .in principle, I think one
could not say that it is not possi
ble for them to deploy 70 of
these new large ICBM silos this
year. However, it would be a
very high rate of starts.
70 Sites Seen Possible
It now appears, according to
Pentagon sources, that the num-
ber of silos to be placed under
construction by the Soviets be-
tween fall of 1970, when work
apparently started, until the fall
of this year will be close to the
high figure of 70 cited by Jack-
son.
But the Soviets, at the same
time, have apparently ended
their planned deployment of the
SS-9 'missile and its little broth-
er, the SS-11, which is a weapon
of about one megation, roughly
the size of the American Minute-
man.
The total number of Soviet
ICBM's deployed at mid-year is
believed to be about 1,550. This
force is made up of slightly less
than 300 SS-9's, a total of more
than 900 SS-11's and SSS-13's and
between 300-400 older missiles.
So far, Pentagon sources said,
no missiles have been seen in
association with the new silos
and tests that have been ob-
served have not dispelled the
mystery surrounding the new
holes in the ground. They appear
to be of two sizes, one capable of
taking the SS-9 or even a larger
missile and one capable of han-
dling a missile of about the size
of the smaller SS-11.
Fast Work Pace
Pentagon sources, #ec-
liced-Ter-dr?seusa_thadi:0inigile
*tires for attribidon?ex7.-Ine
1,R5n missiles.Woil?
deployed is slightly_Labove what
hPen PxpPetPd_earairtTs
onl reflects a
a ce 751-Tverk
rather t an new s ar
The unexpectedly rapid pace
of deployment of the new silos,
on the other hand, indicates a
continuing buildup rather than
simply completion of work al-
ready under way.
Some new silo construction
has been detected since the Stra-
tegic Arms Limitation Talks re-
sumed in Helsinki, Finland on
July 8. But Pentagon sources
said it could not be said with
certainty that the construction
had actually begun after that
date.
In previous years, information
on the progress of Soviet missile
development has been made
public periodically in Congres-
sional testimony, speeches and
press conferences. But no for-
mal statement by the govern-
ment on current Soviet missile
progress is expected to be made
until the annual defense report
to Congress in January of next
year.
By that time, the SALT nego-
tiations may have resulted in
agreement and, if not, decisions
on how to react to the Soviet
developments will have been
made.
The Soviet Union now has
about 500 more land-based
ICBM's than the United States.
The U.S. is well ahead of the
Soviets, however, in adding mul-
tiple warheads ? designed to
penetrate a defensive system ?
to its missiles.
The U.S. is also still ahead in
the number of missiles carried
by submarines and in the num-
ber of strategic bombers.
omewhat
faster
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PAGE
ApproVe'dTor Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP731300296R000200230003-2 r
Chinese
Deploying
A-Missiles
By Michael Getler
Washington Post Staff Writer
-
w eviden
?I ?-? ? .t-
11.5
cojaumniLSt..
1,0_ 1. . small nu ,)er of
jicleaLmissauxowavi- e
\AI'
carAting-ta-informed- -g0vgro-
anent-sources.
The missiles have an esti-
mated range of about 1,000
miles, far too short to
threaten U.S. territory, but
enough to reach some military
installations and one or two
large cities in the Soviet Un-
ion as well as other targets . in
Asia, including Japan and Tai-
wan.
has
,bgen_mtici e;t!_2LId_for some
awe -af-thePentageic:Uireirt-
Ligpee that. emplaggraeff-EZ
Wally...4,414.1.yvas_olue-
watip-oalitained.
ber if o'er 1
xecxx4aadnomeLfalia= is
? er
lagap.
Defense Department offi-
cials say they are reluctant to
draw any conclusions?based
on this small initial deploy-
ment?regarding how many of
these missiles the Chinese will
eventually field. Officials say
they still believe that Peking
is placing more emphasis on
development of an intermedi-
ate-range ballistic missile, one
that would have a range about
twice that of the MRBMs now
being deployed..
A missile able to fly 2,000
miles would enable China to
situate these weapons well
back from its own borders,
providing some safety against
attack if their locations were
not pinpointed by an enemy.
Such rockets would also be
able to reach many more of
the Soviet Union's heartland
cities, adding to their deter-
rent effect.
MISSILE, From Al
Defense Secretary Melvin
Laird estimated in March-that
the Chinese would have "a
modest number" of both types
of missiles by mid-1972.
The Chinese nuclear arse-
nal, which also includes a
number of light and medium
jet bombers, is still miniscule
compared with that of the So-
viet k Union. As some defense
analysts view things, however,
the Chinese are approaching a
point where the Soviets could
no longer be certain they
would escape nuclear retalia-
tion entirely if they staged a
surprise attack on China.
While U.S. officalS stress
that they view such a conflict
as highly unlikely, the Soviet
press did carry hints of a
preemptive nuclear strike
against China and its nuclear
facilities during the heated
border dispute between the
two nations in the late sum-
mer of 1969.
Aside from its fledgling mis-
sile force, the Chinese have
about 150 20-year-old light
bombers supplied by the Sovi-
ets before relations between
the two countries soured in
1960, and more than 30 of the
more modern TU-16 medium
bombers which can reach tar-
gets 1,500 miles away. The
Chinese began procuring them
on their own last year.
According to some defense
officials the Chinese are also
said to be reasonably good at
concealing the whereabouts of
the small forde of 'nuclear
weapons.
The Pentagon first pre-
dicted deployment of Chinese
medium-range missiles back in
1967, but numerouS technical
problems and internal upheav-
alslniChina delayed their em-
placement for several more
years. Some officials hint,
however, that the vastness of
the country and the fact that
the Chinese do not always
deploy their weapons where
U.S. or Soviet planners might
expect them to, also caused
problems and delay for U.S.
photo intelligence analysts
trying to find the missiles.
In addition to the nuclear
weapons developments, offi-
cials also say that both the So-
viet Union and China are con-
tinuing a slow but steady
buildup of their conventional
fighting forces along and near
their 4200-mile border.
Officials say the Russians
now have about 40 divisions at
or near the border, but that a
number of these are not at
full strength.
Most recent efforts at
strengthening this force, offi-
cials say, have been aimed at
adding supplies and support-
ing equipment rather than
bringing in still more fighting
troops. The Soviets in the bor-
der area are highly dependent
on rail links to move supplies,
and those lines are considered
to be vulnerable to attack.
The Chinese are also said to
have recently redeployed ar-
mies closer to the border and
farther toward the north and
north central regions of the
country. However, the Chinese
tend not to concentrate major
forces right near the border,
officials Say.
Despite the continuing
buildup, U.S. officials believe
the chances for an outbreak of
hostilities between the two na-
tions remain slight.
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Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2
,o,
THE WASHINGTON POST DATE41' 3 1 PA GE
Russians Building
New Missile Silos
As Limit Is Sought
By Michael GetIer
Washington Post Staff Writer
The 'number of new underground missile silos now
known to be under construction in the Soviet Union has
risen to nearly 80, according to highly placed U.S. offi-
cials.
Work on about six and possibly a few more of these
ICBM silos, it is estimated, was started after the dramatic
joint announcement by Presi- --
dent Nixon and the Soviet
leadership on May 20 that the
two countries would seek an
initial agreement this year on
limiting the arms race by put-
ting restrictions on both offen-
sive and defense nuclear
weapons.
U.S. officials remain opti-
mistic that such an agreement
will be reached. But, they add,
the dimensions of the Soviet
silo construction program ?
as it continues to be unfolded
by U.S. picture-taking recon-
naissance satellites ? is caus-
ing increasing concern within
the administration and among
U.S. negotiators at the Strate-
gic Arms Limitations (SALT)
talks at Helsinki.
The main U.S. goal at SALT
is to freeze the number of nu-
clear-tipped ICBMs in each na-
tion's arsenal at a level that
would make a surprise attack
if such a freeze is negoti-
ated, officials explain that it
will probably be tied to some
future cutoff date beyond
which neither nation could t
add any more land.-based
ICBMs to its force.
The fact that the Russians
now have about 80 new silos
' in various stages of construe-
'Lion ? and possibly more as
yet undetected -- is making
the setting of that cutoff date
increasingly important from
the U.S. viewpoint.
The question; is how, many
of these silos ? particularly
those designed Tto hold the
mammoth SS-9 type ICBM ?
the Uniterl-Stath is willing
see' COmplApp raweidaEar
fore an agreement is
longer considered safe and ac-
ceptable to the United States.
Thus far no missiles have
- Also,som Pentagon
sources say that at for some
time, the U.S. didn't think to
look in the SS-11 bases to see
of new silos were also being
built there.
New Soviet tests of defen-
sive weapons are also causing
concern to U.S. officials,
though not as much as the
ICBM silo problems.
Testing Stepped Up
Officials say that in the past
six months the Soviets have
stepped up testing of new
ABM radars and two new
ABM interceptor missiles at
the Soviet test complex at
Sary Shagan in south central
Russia.
Of the new missiles being
tested, informants say one is
longer-range than the current
Soviet Galosh ABM missile
now deployed around Moscow.
The other is shorter-range
than Galosh but does not ap-
pear to be the speedy type of
Sprint missile which the US.
Safeguard ABM system will
use to try to catch any incom-
ing ICBMs that get past the
longer-range Spartan intercep-
tors. the potential use of the I
shorter-range Russian ABM'
remains a puzzle to U.S. ex-
'ieen installed in any of the
iew silos, officials say, and
there is still no sign that any
large new ICBM or greatly im-
proved version of the SS-9 has
been flight tested. The exist-
ing version of the SS-9 and
versions carrying three multi-
warheads tested thus far
ire not considered to be accur-
ite enough to knock out the
U.S. Minuteman force, as was
)nce feared.
Should the Soviets eventu-
ally develop a much more ac-
curate multi-headed version of
the SS-9 or a new missile, then
the number of these weapons
in their inventory becomes ex-
tremely important if the 1,000-
missile U.S. Minuteman force
is not to be truly threatened.
More Confident
Despite the fact that more Officials say with increased
mr silo construction keeps ?though
not complete?con-
towing up on satellite plc- fidence that the silo construe-
TM U.S. officials said that tion program appears to be an
.ie impact on U.S. security effort by the Russians to build.
l'id on the SALT talks is better, more protective silos'
Ts alone might indicate?
, it as ominous as the num-
for their missiles, either cur-
. ent or modified versions,
least at this time.
rather than one designed for a
One factor is that late in completely new class of offen-
sive weapons.
Building better protection
for ICBMs is, in general, PertS.
viewed as less provocative
than simply building more
ICBMs of the type that would
normally be used only in a
first strike or surprise attack.
The U.S. is taking similar
measures to build more blast
resistant silos for 550 of the
1,000-missile Minuteman force.
The U.S. is also rapidly re-
equipping the hundreds of the
lay, when the count of new
los had reached about 60, the
entagon confirmed a press
iport which revealed that
vo-thirds of the new silos
ere probably for the much
mailer Soviet SS-11 ICBM,
ither than the SS-9. The SS-
of which the Soviets al-
'ady have about 900, is con-
dered to be not nearly accur-
te or powerful enough to
nock out U.S land-based Min-
d teman ICBMs. This two-
t urds ratio has not changed single-warhead Minutemen
? nce May. with two to three warheads
:lajor Objective each, a move which a number
A major U.S. objective since of arms control advocates be-
SALT talks began in 1969 lieve provoked the new Soviet
as been to keep the number building program.
T
1 the more threatening SS-9s he new Soviet silo effort is
rom going much beyond 300. believed to have got underway
)fficials say this is still the
last winter, but it was first de-
oal. The Russians now have tected by the U.S. early this
bout 288 of these big missiles, year.
aving halted construction on Revealed by Jackson
8 silos late last year, appear-
ntly fo wait for the more
aodern ones now being built.
Based upon the number of
new silos spotted thus far and
the ratios cited, about 24 to 30
of the new holes could be for
';S9-type missiles. Thus, while
' imiting the number of these
dlos to be completed will _no
lease120f(t/O9tOaddCtAt-ROM
rig point by the U.S., the to-
. als are still not much beyond
00
Sen. Henry M. Jackson (D-
Wash.), who first broke the
news that the Soviets were
building huge : new ICBM
? ?
silos on TV early in March,
has since estimated that the
Soviets could have 70 silos by
this fall. Officials explain the
fact that they already have
about 80 by saying that earlier
002396R00020012300014t
complete satellite coverage
and without' knowing how
much had already been done.
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THE WASHINGTON POST
DATERK n 11 PAGE A-3
Soviets Test
Near-Orbital
Rocket Again
The Pentagon announced
yesterday that the Soviet
:Union made another test fir-
iing
Sunday of its Fractional
Orbital Bombardment System,
la long-range nuclear-tipped
rockt that rises to the fringe
of space but is brought back
to earth just before complet-
ing one orbit,
I Since 1966, the Russians
I have made at least 17 tests of
the FOBS, and U.S. intelli-
gence experts now consider
i the weapon to be an opera-
tional part of the Soviet arse-
nal.
The test last Sunday?called i
I Cosmos 433?was launched i
. from the Soviety missile cen-
ter at Tyuratam, and landed
just north of the Caspian Sea
!after a 90-minute flight that 1
i' took the missile over China, i
South America and Africa. The!
flight was the first this yearj
and is viewed by weapons ana-
lysts as a training exercise fori
crews.
I Pentagon officials Say the
Ii FOBS could carry a single
warhead of 3 megatons or
' larger, but the weapon is
viewed as less accurate and
powerful than an ICBM and
has thus not appealed to U.S.
planners as worth developing.
Because FOBS does not
complete an entire orbit, the
weapon does not technically
violate the treaty banning
weapons orbiting in space. A
number of U.S. officials, how-
ever, view the technique as vi-
olating the spirit of the treaty.
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Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2
ft (Al
-THE WASHINGT ON POST
DATE I t
Laird's Time for Alarm
? DEFENSE SECRETARY
Melvin R. Laird at his press
conference yesterday gave
substance to the Pentagon
wise crack of the day before
that "Laird will have trou-
ble saying the Ruisians are
coming now 'that Nixon is
going."
,The reference, of course,
was to President Nixon's an-
nouncement on Tuesday
that he will go to Moscow
next May to enhance "the
,prospecta of world peace."
Once his, boss had said that,
Laird could not complain
very loudly about Soviet ad-
vances in 'weaponry.
The defense secretary
while visibly exercising re- the Strategic Arms Limita-
straint in what he said at his tion Talks (SALT).
press conference, did man- President Nixon ex-
age to make headlines by pressed hope Tuesday that
declaring the Soviets will the United States and Soviet
catch up with the United Union through SALT will
States in misaile submarines have reached agreement be-
in 1973 instead of 1975. But fore the May summit meet-
here, too, Laird has a prob- lug on limiting offensive
lem. ICBMs and defensive anti-
Back in the McNamara , .. .
ualnstic-missile (ABM) sys-
years, the catechism of the
arms theologians was that toms. There is a good
the sooner the Soviets put chance, however, that sub-
their nuclear-tipped missiles marines will not be in-
underground or under the eluded in the agreement.
sea in stibmarines?the bet- As matters stand now, the
ter. Missiles lying out in the Soviet Union under such an
open, went the argument, agreement would have more
were so vulnerable that ICBMs at the ready than the
Moscow in a crisis would be United States' The Soviets
tempted to fire them before have passed the United
they could be knocked out
States in numbers. Nobody
by Washington. expects Russia to throw
Our Polaris submarines,
away ICBMs to make things
the arms specialists said,
w even with the United States.
were a stabilizing force be-
That is why Laird and oth-
cause they could not be de-
ers in the Nixon administra-
stroyed in a surprise attack
and thus would not be fired tion use the term "suffi-
impulsively?only in a calcu- ciency" when talking about
I
lated response to a first ICBMs, not "superiority."
strike by the other side.
Also, missiles fired from MR. NIXON'S strategists
submarines do not have believe the Joint Chiefs of
pickel-barrel accuracy and Staff and the Congress
thus could not destroy , would accept a missile gap
ICBMs buried underground, as long as it is demonstrated
Submarines, then, have been that the United States has
portrayed for a long time as all the nuclear killing power
"second-strike" weapons. it needs and that building
more ICBMs would not pro-
THEORETICALLY, news vide any additional security.
that the Soviet Union is fol- A mutual freeze on ABM
lowing the United States in construction also is seen
building a second-strike mis- saleable politically.
sue submarine force should But would the Joint
be comforting to those Chiefs of Staff and the Con-
trying to walk the world gress accept?on top of a
back frern an Armageddon missile gap?a ring of Soviet
of nuclear incineration.
Yet, Laird at his preSS missile submarines around
the United States? That is
conference yesterday did one of the big unknowns as
not talk that way at all. He Laird and others assess the
said the American people politics of SALT.
would not tolerate the Soviet Therefore, even though it
Union ringing this country does not make strategic
with missile-carrying sub- sense to scream about the
marines the same way the , .-?
i noviet submarine buildup?
United States has ringed the given their second strike
Soviets., He made the points character ? it may make
that , Soviet Russia is a political sense to try to talk
closed:soCiety, the United Russia out of going ahead
States an open one and that full speed with submarine
Alive would be "political" construction.
problems from a big Soviet Thus the politics of
attbmaAne force. SALT, budget problems
It ,was a confusing explan and the fear of many admi-
ation?one that seemed to rals, generals and politicians
conflict with the carefully that Mr. Nixon is giving
stated case of the past for away too much in strategic
second-strike weapons. Ills weaponry make this the sea-
concern about the Soviet son for sounding the alarm
submarine buildup begins to about Soviet submarines
make sense only when it is and other strategic weapon-
examined in the context of ry?Moscow trip or not.
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PA GE
NEWYAppORK TIMES roved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDB7A3R02tOgit2OW003-2 pAGE
1.airdWarns of a Soviet Missile Buildup
Far Exceeding His Earlier Estimates
By WILLIAM BEECHER
special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, Oct. 13?
Secretary of Defense lqelvin R.
Laird expressed concern tOcliy
over yhat.,he..sai& was a con-
tinuing Sovietlinirdia, -
based and sea-based missiles.
Thirbuildup, which he said is
lady "far outdistancin 'theg'
_ _
eMirates he offered Congress
-
seven months ago
While the United States still
enjoys a lead in the quality of
its strategic weapons, he said,
there is no assurance that the
Russians may not overtake this
advantage.
He stressed the potential po-
litical problem if the Russians
were in position one day to
ring the United States with a
larger force of missile subnia-
rines than the United States.
jaaa 40-minute news confer-
ence itt-the 'Naar- ME -Lam
aigtlos6ct -plans of 1 visit to
South Vietnam in early Novem-
ber to provide President Nixon
with an appraisal of the mili-
tary situation before the ritxt
troop withdrawal annoutle-
mgro: Assawx.,72.plw uic .ec-
retary will be Adm. Thomas H. tion of trying to influence Con-
Moorer, Chairman of the Joint gress in voting funds for the
Chiefs of Staff. Defense Department. Heprom-
Zar. jei.tnfirmed q report ised to go into greater detail in
thritlertrifibniS-ekreTt- his defense report next year.
Zao Match- the-triiited-Stated The Laird visit to South Viet
strength by -deploying e41 nam, as in the case of some
Rolaris-type missile submariri8s earlier ones, is to provide the
by 1973. President with a last-minute re
Other sources have recently
said that the Russians now have
23 Y-class missile submarines
in operation, 5 or. 6 afloat and
i being fitted out, and 13 to 15
under construction. Thus by
late 1972 or 1973, barring a halt
,1 or slowd6wn in the construc-
tion effort, the Russians would
match the size of the American
Polaris fleet of operational sub-
marines.
_
would like to reduce this
30,000 to 50,000 advisers
support forces by next sum
Whether such a force sho
include fighter-bomber squ
rons, helicopter companies
t? be far superior to those of the
nd SovietUnion
On another subject, Mr. Laird
said there was a "mistake in
the field" on the handling of a
letter written by S. Sgt. John
ca -
er.
Id
d-
nd
artillery battalions is one of ?he Sexton Jr. after
major questions still to be de- I d b the Vietcong The let-
cided, the sources say.
Expansion of Yard Reporter
While Mr. Laird dealt aly
with concerns about the ScrOiet
Union's drawing a breast of
the American Polaris subrnar,ine
force, he is known to share
with other officials an elien
oraatar Nartyrrtr Thio is that a
The New York Times
Defense Secretary Melvin
R. Laird tells of plans.
ture iter was reproduced by the Viet-
cong and distributed as a propa-
ganda leaflet. The Pentagon was
not told that the letter was in
reported doubling of the pro-
duction facilities at the prinici-
pal Soviet missile submarine
yard at Severodvinsk, on the
White Sea, suggests a Soviet
intention of outstripping the
American Missile submarine
fleet over, the next few years,
unless an arms control agree-
ment can be worked out to
Mr. Laird said he was chary
of citing numbers of new. Soviet
weapons at this point lest
critics accuse the Administra-
prevent such a development.
The Russians are known to
have balked at a United States
proposal that an interim arms
limitation agreement halt the
'production of missile sub-
marines, in addition to land-
based missiles.
The Soviet Union is reported
to have more than 1,600 land-
based intercontinental ballistic
missiles in operation and under
construction, against 1,054 for
the United States. The Russians
are said to have indicated some
willingness to halt new con-
port on how many American struction of such missiles under
troops may be safely with- a first-step agreement that
drawn, defense sources said. would also attempt to limit the
The Secretary noted there missiles on both sides.
are now about 210,000 troops Mr. Laird said the United
States was still ahead in missile
technology, but there was no
reason the Soviet could not
catch up. Apparently he was
talking about American multiple
warheads and missile-guidance
systems, which are believed to
in South Vietnam, down from
high of 543,400 in 1969. The
number is scheduled to go dowr
to 184,000 by Dec. 1.
Administration sources hayi
been suggesting for severe
months that the Presiden
the sergeant's handwriting, Mr.
'Laird said, and as a result Ser.-
geant Sexton's parents were
merely told it was possible theft
son was a prisoner, but that he
was still being carried as miss-
ing in action.
Mr. Laird said he had ordered
all propaganda-leaflet files to
be reviewed to see if there were
other such cases. He said such
mistakes should not be repeated.
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DATE
Laird Says Soviet
Rushes Sub Fleet
By Michael Getler
Washington Post Staff Writer ,
Defense Secretary Melvin R. on further U.S. troop with-
Laird warned yesterday that
the Soviet Union's growing
fleet of missile-firing subma-
rines would match the size of
the U.S. undersea missile
force "at least one year" earl-
speculation on what is coming
ier than he had previously
next in Vietnam with Laird
predicted. warning that reporters "may
Laird had estimated in his
be surprised." Unofficial indi-
annual defense report to Con-
cations now are that T.I.S.
gress in March that the Sovi-
forces will be down from the
ets would pull abreast of the
current 210,000 men to 30,000
41-submarine U.S. Polaris-Po-
to 50,000 men by mid-1972.
seidon fleet by 1974. Yesterday, however, Senate
Laird also announced at a
Republican Leader Hugh
Pentagon news conference Scott said he believes the
that he would visit Vietnam President's forthcoming state-
early next month, together ment will contain "decisive"
with Chairman of the Joint
changes in Vietnam policy
Chiefs a Staff Adm. Thomas well beyond routine troop
H. Moorer. in advance of Presi- withdrawal announcements.
dent Nixon's scheduled an-
nouncement in mid-November Scott said it was his per-
sonal opinion that by next
summer all American troops
will be out with the exception
of air support forces, and even
those may be out if POWs
have been freed.
Scott said he based his com-
ments on "a feeling that I get
in congressional leadership
meetings," rather than on any
inside information.
At the Pentagon, Laird laid
heavy emphasis, as he has sev-
eral times in recent months,
on the continuing buildup of
Soviet strategic nuclear weap-
ons, and on new submarine
construction in particular.
Soviet land-based missiles
already outnumber U.S. ICBMs
by about 1,550 to 1,054. Suspi-
cions that the Soviets may be
attempting to gain numerical
superiority in submarine-borne
missiles, too, is causing con-
cern among administration of-
ficials trying to work out an
arms limitation agreement
with Moscow.
Laird said the growing So-
viet sub fleet was causing as
much political as military con-
cern.
"I believe that we would be
placed at a very great political
disadvantage if the Soviet
Union were able to ring the
U.S. with a vastly superior Po-
laris-type fleet off all our
coasts and outdistance us by a
large number of missiles?'
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-
drawals from Vietnam.
It will be Laird's fourth trip
to the war zone. Both the de-
fense chief and the President
have sought to discourage
"-Jr-- ? ---
Laird stressed that both the
SALT talks, which will resume
in Vienna, next month, and
"the discussions that Presi-
dent Nixon will be having
with the Soviet leadership are
indeed very important."
In announcing Tuesday that
he would visit Moscow in May
to discuss a variety of subjects
with Soviet leaders, President
Nixon said that if a SALT
agreement is not reached be-
fore then, the arms race would
certainly be on his agenda.
However, he also added that
the question of SALT "may be
behind us at that point."
The two superpowers have
agreed to try to reach an
agreement by the end of this
year. However, several top-
level planners have reported
that the Soviets are reluctant
to include submarines in any
initial agreement. It is possi-
ble that Laird's remarks yes-
terday may mean that the
President, in May, may be dis-
cussing a second-step agree-
ment to cover missile-firing
submarines.
Administration officials
have said privately on several
occasions that the President
and Congress would face
tough political problems here
and abroad in backing any
agreezOnt that froze the
United States into numerical
inferiority in both land and
giVfielionolgekolnifIS
PAGE
difference in numbers did not
?
mean much militarily because
of the huge arsenals already
on both sides.
Laird said that there "is no
disagreement between the
President and myself," when
reporters suggested that the
Pentagon seemed to be.. more
?
alarmed about the Sovietl
buildup than the President. '
Laird said the United States
still has technological superi-
ority over the Soviets in stra-
tegic weaponry, but that he
wants it understood that the
Soviets could catch up, and
that when they do they might
get the advantage because
they are starting with more
and bigger weapons?such as
the huge SS-9 ICBM? to
begin with;
Laird said he believed the
American people would accept
a position of strategic parity
but not one of inferiority.
U.S. missile-firing subma-
rines have been ringing the
coasts of the Soviet Union for
years, and the U.S. Polaris and
Posedion missiles can reach
targets twice as distant as
their Soviet counterparts.
The United States has also
been adding multiple war-
heads to both land-based and
sea-based missiles, while the
Soviets have begun construc-
tion on more than 90 new
ICBM silos since early this
offi.-2
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NEW YORK TIMES DATE 'et-1
Soviet Said to Test
Satellites That Hunt
And Destroy Others
LONDON, Oct. 23 (UPI)-
Soviet Union has been testing
earth satellites that approach
and destroy other spacetraft,
the authoritative publication,
Jane's All the World's Aircraft,
said this week.
In its latest edition Jane's
listed a series of launchings
of ?sylet spacecraft and satel-
lites, ciescnbing?sliiiie-ottlieiii
as "orbital intercept tests."
11 John W. R. Taylor, editor of
the publication, said the Soviet
satellite Cosmos 397, launched
last Feb. 25, passed near Cos-
mos 394, launched 16 days
earlier, "and was subsequently
destroyed, in an explosion.
Cosmos 400, launched March
? 19, was "intercepted" by Cos-
mos 404 on April 3, the day it
A,Ny jts launched, Mr. Taylor said.
In a preface Mr. Taylor said
the United States maintained
satellites in stationary position's
over the mid-Pacific, including
one with "a fantastic 11.ton
reconnaissance camera," to
monitor the launches of Soviet
and Chinese long - range
"Little wonder that the U.S.
Secretary of Defense is able
to give such accurate assess-
ments of Soviet intercontinen-
tal ballistic missile deployment
and new types of weapons that
have been identified," he said.
Mr. Taylor said that national
policies of "peace through
fear" seemed to work and
would continue as long as both
sides oknew enough about the
other's destructive capability
to be deterred from hasty mili-
tary moves.
Despite "one and a half
decades of Government inde-
cision and wrong decision,"
Mr. Taylor said, "Britain still
retains the most competent and
comprehensive aircraft indus-
try in Europe."
He was less optimistic about
new developments on the part
of the British air industry.
"Apart from the multlrole
combat aircraft and, of course,
the Concorde, one looks in vain
for much that it is new and
challenging among British air-
craft," Mr. Taylor said.
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PAGE
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2
A 6691 A-S tst re-.
oseph Alsop
ii 'he Balance of Power
A SINGLE QUESTION i few weeks ago. One of the can already foretell the re-
??
truly haunting at the close o
w long and arduous journey t
the, Middle,East.abd Asia. Th
questiOn?is whether the Soviet,
Union is still likely to respon44
to changes in the balance of
Power- in the old way, like one
of Pavlov's '.? dogs ' salivating
when the bell was rung.
It is a key question?in fact i
the single kg question of the ,
niobtent-r-simply ? because the
more curious features of this
year's silo-digging program?
in fact pointing to a crash pro-
gram?was the Soviet failure
to pre-test the new missiles
that will go into the new silos.
But that is ended now.
Both the advanced-model
SS-9 and the advanced-model
SS-11 have been recently
tested, inside the Soviet Union
and at relatively short range.
, Soviets are ?making such enor- pnly long range tests will
'nous efforts. to .tilt the world Lshow with certainty what the
balance of power , in their detailed. characteristics of
favor.' These efforts are being these new missiles may be,
made in ' every area, notably But the initial results are dis-
turbing, to say the least.
Major iinprovements are indi-
cated, with five huge war-
heads on the new SS-9, for
instance.
IN ADDITION, there are
two other quite novel elements
in the pattern. First, new
naval construction and launch-
ing facilities indicate one of
two possibilities. Either the
Soviets mean to have more of
their Yankee-class nuclear
submarines by 1973-74 than we
have Polaris-Poseidon submar-
ines. Or they mean to have
large numbers of very fast at-
tack submarines intended to
checkmate our submarines, of
the Polaris-Poseidon class.
Secondly, the Soviets ran a
major series of exercises this
summer, in the interesting
field of satellite-neutralization
and/or satellite destruction.
The least informed person
knows that 95 per cent of
America's information about
Soviet weapons development
and military deployment is
owed to the U.S. reconnaiss-
ance satellites.
Neutralizing or destroying
those satellites will be the
exact equivalent of blinding
this country in a crisis. It is
Important, then, that the re-
cent exercises, which were
elaborate and ambitious, have
proved that the Soviets now
have this capability of blind-
ing us.
The weapon used was? a
non-nuclear missile with pow-
erful apparatus for correcting
its course in flight, and for
target seeking .at the climax.
When "fixed" on its victim-sat-
ellite, it appears to do its job
joy ejecting large numbers of
igh velocity pellets of some
ort. If the t.S. is one day
kncled -in thi manner, one
Including conventional nava
Power..; But; the simplest mea
ure is the Soviet effort in th
area ' .Of ? - nuelear-strategi
Power., - ?
!The; . chief . scientist of the
Pentagon, Dr. John S. Foster,
has been under hitter attack.
Dr, Jeremy , Stone and a good
itianir.:?Ottier ,Misguided Ameri-
ean?aglentista have 'formed a
powerful lobby primarily
afined,!::so far as one can see,
to ,.-- subordinating American
. ; ??
strategic policy to Soviet stra-
tegic iiblicY,.` Of this dubious
scientific lobby, John Foster
has been a prime target?as a
dreadful pessimist, as an advo-
cate,?9f "the worst case," as an
habitual . exaggerator of this
country's. perils.
IT IS INTERESTING, thei
., . ? -
that 'Dr. Foster has now bee
proved dead wrong on the op .
timistic 'side. Last January ,
when the Soviets renewed ac
tive deployment of their giant
counter-force weapons, th
SS-9S, and other intercontin I
ental ? .missiles; Dr. Foster
rather 'confidently predicte
that the maximum number o
missiles' . to .be deployed this
year inight?reach thirty-five.
13y,, September, however, the
: ' T A ' 4earl reconnaissance
ate1it.had, found more than
igilesi dug to receive
;.
new'4ntssiles.4 These silos are
dividesil,intO4bout 60 for. ad-
vanced-model. AS-11S, (like our
-
Minuteman, but more power-
ful);iaolt:134:4.4yanced-model
rSS.9S-z(capable of ? taking out
more,-:' targets ? than the early
i I model); and six or seven out-
size silos probably due to take
, vanper-brute'missile of an en-
tirely,neertype. ? ? . ' -
.,,,,Perhaps14 more ominously,
testifir(if Ttheadvanced-model
SS;9S iieSS-1.18, iftiliugh not
of. ,,the". super-brutes, began
sponse of Dr. Jeremy Stone
and many other high level
American thinkers.
To the returninng traveller,
all this gives food for thought
for two rather simple reasons.
In the Middle East, in Commu-
nist China, and one or two
other places around the world,
there are situations that must
greatly tempt he Soviets if
they feel ready to be brutal.
And whenever the Soviets
have thought they were acting
within a favorable balance of
power, they have always
ended by seeking their na-
tional aims with considerable
brutality. This is the Pavlov-
aspect. It makes an interesting
calculation.
o '971, The Los Angeles Times
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Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73B00296R110400230003-2
THE WASHINGTON POST DATE 00-1 (
Joseph Alsop
The Watersheds Paper
SOMETHING called "The
Watersheds Paper" is circu-
lating in the governmental
inner circle; and it is caus-
ing talk. The paper's details
are naturally not discovera-
ble, but its main point is
known. The point is that a
watershed in world affairs
, has been passed, and a
quite new situation has been
created, because of the enor-
mous increase of Soivet nu-
clear-strategic power.
The point is well taken,
alas. Yet one can hardly im-
agine an official paper put-
ting the problem bleakly
'though to describe the real
nature of this new world sit-
nation, even if a major wa-
tershed is beginning to be
timidly and belatedly recog-
nized.
The essence of the new
? situation is very simple,
however. .With their vastly
increased nuclear-strategic
? power, the Soviets can com-
fortably think about doing
all sorts of things that
would have been quite un-
thinkable before. One such
is the surgical nuclear
strike, to destroy the
Chinese Communist nuclear
program, which the Soviets
have in fact been actively
and methodically preparing.
The illustration is particu-
larly relevant, because the
Soviet preparations above-
mentioned have conspicu-
ously included a huge, im-
mensely costly build-up of
conventional military power
along the Sino-Soviet fron-
tier. The two kinds of in-
vestrnent'in power go hand
in hand, in other words; and
each serves the other.
NO SANE PERSON can
suppose this country will do
anything but wail and wring
hands, if the Soviets eventu-
ally decide to make the un-
provoked nuclear attack
they have been getting
ready for. That particular
aspect of the new world situ-
ation will not be changed in
the least by President Nix-
Asis the Chinese also lack
the means to defend them-
,. What still seems un-
thintable to most people in
this 'flabby-minded country,
is in truth an almost risk-
free choice for the Soviets.
The sole remaining , ques-
tion, in fact, is What the So-
viet choice will be in the pe-
riod before the Chinese gain
the power for a counter-
strike.
It is vitally important to
note, moreover, that the
same rules apply in other
areas more vital to U.S. in-
terests than the Sino-Soviet
border. Particularly, at sea,
the build-up of Soviet con-
ventional power has been
worldwide in its potential
impact. And in the new
world situation, the Ameri-
can "deterrent" cannot be
rationally expected to
"deter" anything at all, ex-
cept (one hopes) a direct So-
viet nuclear attack on this
country.
Hence, lots of other for-
merly unthinkable things
have become things the So-
viets can quite comfortably
think about. Here consider
the troubled Middle East.
Our State Department is ov-
erjoyed at the moment be-
cause the Soviets have be-
come "our silent partners"
?the phrase is actually used
?in pressing for an interim
agreement on the Suez
front.
THE SOVIETS are un-
doubtedly exerting a strong
negative pressure on Egypt's
President Anwar El-Sadat,
to prevent him from reopen-
ing hostilities with the Is
raelis. There is a real chance
that this will end by Sadat's
accepting terms for an in.
terim agreement that the Is?
raelis can also accept.
Suppose, then, that this is
the outcome. Israel will still
be very much there, as a
permanent irritant to ir-
fl the Arab world
ApproVedlhEtoviRztlyttete 2000/09/ffvfineNtaital
lung: ?
I
.P, s
PAGE 157
an interim agreement will
be the reopening of the
Suez Canal, about six
months after the agreement
has been reached.
When that happens, all
the problems of the Soviet
Navy in the Indian Ocean
will be automatically solved.
At present, Soviet vessels in
those waters are com-
manded from Vladivostok,
halfway 'round the world,
because that is their nearest
port. With the canal re-
opened, the nearest port
will be Odessa. And Soviet
naval power in the Indian
Ocean will be predictably
multiplied by ten.
MEANWHILE the Persian
Gulf, where the world oil
tap is conveniently located,
Is bAing left a political ano
military vacuum by the de
parture of the British. No
place on earth is more beau-
tifully arranged for the
practice of 19th century gun-
boat diplomacy. Ask your-
self, then, what will happen
if the Soviets do the un-
thinkable in the Persian
Gulf?if they in fact end by
resorting to gunboat diplo-
macy to gain control of the
world oil-tap?
In the new world situa-
tion, the answer is that the
U.S. will do nothing, once
again, but wail and wring
hands. So it seems a bit odd,
to a returning traveler, that
so many Americans also
want to impair the world
balance of power still fur-
ther, by needlessly losing
the war in Vietnam.
Los Angeles Times
R000200230003-2
NEW YORK TIMES
DATE
PAGE
Approved For Release 2000/09/0Geffe721Bati3R0081)"''''0
ety the Nation's Air Strength Is Declining
By DREW MMDLETON
Air Force Commanders be-
lieve their service has entered
a critical mad in which /waders, noncommissioned of-
can strategic and tacti-gdiriccodnunt,i,aZn.go?abrIcen
cal air Power is declining whiln era! Ryan acid that racial and
that of the Soviet Union is drug problems in the Air Force
were not as pronounced as in
the Army bemuse the Air Dime
"attracts a higher-quality man."
Modernization Needed
Gen. John D. Ryan, the Air
Force Chief of Staff, main
named that morale was goad
a comment echoed by com
expanding.
The three chief elements in
the Ale Force's problem, ac-
cording to senior generals, are:
1. The Air Force's basic "The thjjin problem is mod-
weapons systems the B-52 nrnoi
our combat aircraft are 10
years old or more.
The Air Force now has about
,675 combat planes?bombers,
fighters and fighter-bombers,
and interceptors.
The Strategic Air Command's
manned nuclear bomber home
is built around the B-52, of
which about 490 are active.
SAC received its first 13-52 in
June, 1955. The latest model,
the 13-52H, came off the pro-
duction line in 1962.
The 13-52H has a speed of
650 miles an hour, a range of
more than 10,000 miles, a ceil-
ing of more thth 50,000 feet
and a bomb load of more than
20,000 pounds. In Southeast
Asia, 5-520's have been modi-
fcioendtiLcz 60,011..1 pounds of
ve
The Air Force also has 75
FB-111's, a medium - range
bomber with a payload of 37,-
500 pounds and a Weed of
Mach 2.2, or 2.2 times the
speed of sound. (At sea leve
and at 32 degrees Fahrenheit,
sound travels at a speed of
1,088 feet a second.)
bomber and the F-4 fighter
bomber, are nearing obsoles-
cence and must be replaced
at high cost, by the 11-1 end
the F-15.
2. Intelligthce gathered by
satellites indicates that the So-
viet Union has established a
solid lead over the United
States in land-based intercon-
tinental ballistic missiles, is
building emplacements for
larger missiles and has de-
ployed the Fractional Orbital
Bombardment System, or FOBS,
which enables Sovit com-
manders to bring their missiles
down on a target from any
direction. This makes it pos-
sible for the missile to escape
many of the existing means of
detection.
3. These developments are
taking place against a national
background of budgetary
stringency.
Gen. Bruce K. Holloway,
commander in chief of the
Strategic Air Command, de-
plored what he termed "the
lack of understanding [and]
the indifference to the tinvat Newest Bomber
we face," and emphasized that The FB-111, which came into
the Air Force "moist get She service last year, is the newest
needed modernization" if the Air Force bomber. The original
United States is to have a F.111 model encountered grave
credible deterrent in this difficulties, largely bthause of
decade, the mechanism controlling its
swing wing. But this trouble
Soviet Build-Up Seen has not affected the FB-111
The Air Force generals are model,
aware of the Nixon Admires- After a tong period of testing,
Melon's commitment to the the aircraft proved "superior
current talks on limiting stra- to what we expected," accord-
angio arms. And they say that ing to General Holloway. But
they,
too, hope that the talks the Air Force insists that the
will succeed. But their intelit FB-111 cannot be considered a
genre sources report a con- substitute for the Prl because
tithing build-up of Soviet nu- its rthge at low altitudes is
clear weapons. limited and its capacity to ac-
Air Force promotion of the commodate advanced penetm-
new B-I bomber has entrain- tion aids is restricted.
hired opposition based on Bus- Of the Air Force's 2,350 ac-
sia's de-emphasis of the heavy tive fighters, slightly more than
bomber. The Soviet heavy 1,000 are F-4's, which have a
bomber force consists of about speed of Mach 2.4 and can be
195 aircraft, Bears and Bisons, armed with bombs and missiles.
with 50 of the latter normally But it was designed in the
used as tankers. Bears regular- nineteen-fifties and went into
ly patrol in the North Atlanta. service nine years ago. The Air
Prototypm of a new swing. Force considers the Soviet
wing, supersonic bomber, given 55I5-212 to be superior in
the code name Backfire by the speed, maneuverability and ea-
West have also been seen. celeration.
According to a report last Other righters include the
month by the Senate Armed A-1, the A-7, the F-5, the F-86,
Services Committee, "as yet the F-100, the F-104, the F.105
there is no evidence that they and the F-111.
[the Russians] have actually The Air Force's 430 active
made a decision to produce interceptors are F-101's,
and deploy [the Backfire]. How- F-102's, F-104's and F-106's.
ever, if It th elects, the Soviet
more Basle Twos
Union can certainly build and
deploy this bomber cod this
would require a reassmsment
of our air defense
requirements!'
'Hardware' Problem
The Air Force deploys two
of America's three basic types
of strategic offensive forces:
manned bombers and land-
based intercontinental ballistic
missiles. The Navy's ballistic
Every airman consulted, from missile (Polaris or Poseidon)
generals at the Pentagon to submarines are the third mis-
mechanics at Da Nang in South sile system in what the Ponta-
Vletnthi, emphasized that gun calls the triad.
weapons thd equipment, root The current level of the
morale, is the Air Force's first Minutemth force, 1,000 mis-
problem. sues, was reached in April,
last Arne 30, the Air Force 1967. There are also 54 Titan
had 125,000 officers and 625,' missiles.
ODO enlisted men. Moderrdzation of the Minute'
This all-volunteer force has man bas continued since On-
benefitted from the draft The tuber, 1965, when Minuteman
conthnsus is that half of the 2 was accepted. Minuteman 3,
Air Force's enlistments are which evolved from Minuteman
draft-Induced, although some 2, has a rthge of 8,000 miles
senior officers believe the fig. and more penetration aids to
ure may be closer to 70 per caunter on antimissile defense.
cent. The Air Force, like all It carries three MIRY (mold'
the services, will face a prob- pie, indeptreettlY targelable
lam if the draft is abandoned try vehicle) warheads of
in favor of a valmtaor arm, shunt Inn kilntoic filfb 7,1t,
kiloton is the equivalent of
1,000 tons of TNT.
The Minuteman I, which has
been in service since 1962, is
to be phased out. By the end
of 1974, SAC will have a mis-
ile force of about 500 Minute-
man 3's and 500 Minuteman 2's.
The Titan 2 has been opera-
lanai since 1963. It carries a
payload of five to 10 megatons
?largest of the American in-
tercontinental ballistic mis-
siles?and hose range of
7,250 miles. The Air Force has
three Titan 2 squadrons, con-
sisting of 18 missiles each.
Brig. Gen. Harry N. Cordes,
SAC's Deputy Chief of Staff
for Intelligenre, views the So-
viet missile threat as a "mix"
in which offensive and defen-
sive weapons are blended to
degree unknown in the West.
The offense is represented
by an ICBM farce of about
1,800 launchers. Dr. John S
Foster, the Defense Depart.
merit's research chief, reported
rmently that the construction
of new silos, or launching sites
has reached the some high rate
at which 55-9 and 55-11 sites
were built last year.
Early Missiles Retained
Shone the early nineteen
sixties, the Russians have de-
veloped a large number of
ballistic missile systems. Two
of the earlier systems, the
SS-7 and SS-8, were deployed
in limited numbers. Although
they have been overtaken by
;
?stems they have Wen
ay
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The 55-11 is one of the
three ICBM systems now be-
ing deployed. There are more
than 900 SS-11 launchers
mom than for any other type
The 55-11 has a range of 6,500
miles and a warhead yield of
one to two megatons.
The 00-13, code - named
Savage, is the Soviet Union's
Best operational solid fuel pro
Pellant ICBM. It has a range of
5,000 miles and a yield of one
megaton.
The SS.9 is considered to
be the most powerful Soviet
ICBM system. Silos for more
than 300 SS-9's have been
completed or am under con-
struction. The SS-9 can deliver
a single 25 megaton warhead
or, when fitted with MIRY,
combinations of smaller mega-
ton-range multiple warheads.
The missile can carry three
ive - megaton warheads to a
raTogiZefli0e1100:fions of
the current talks on limiting
strategic am., the Air Force
reports, "Although we are un-
ertain of their future force
goals, based on tile level of
activity in recent years, the
Soviets could achieve a force
of well over 2,000 hardened
ICBM's by 1975."
The Soviet Strategic Rocket
Forces also deploy about 700
medium and intermediate range
ballistic missiles; 70 cover tar-
gets in China and Japan, and
630 cover targets in Western
The Russian defensive sys-
tern ranges from antiaircraft
artillery to antimissile missiles.
Moscow Is protected by 64
launchers firing the Galosh
missile. Them are indications
that its antimissile defense will
be strengthened by the intro-
duction of the Tallinn system,
employing the SA-5 for use
against high - flying aircraft
and, probably, ballistic missile
systems.
These and other defensive
weapons are knit to new and
mom accurate radar systems.
The Soviet Union also has a
farce of mom than 3,000 fighter
interceptors; three new types
have come into service in the
last five years.
Tactical Planes
Soviet air strength is no
confined to missiles and bomb
ere. A tactical air force of
about 5,000 planes includes
such high performance air
craft as the Mig.21J, the Yak
2SP and the Yak-28, a super
sonic light bomber.
Tactical and strategth com-
manders of the United States
Air Force differ on many
points, including the usefulness
of high-performance aircraft in
ground sop ml. Tactical com-
manders also feel that their
fighters and bombers can do
the job assigned to strategic
bombers if the tactical planes
can fly from advanced bases
But the consensus is that the
Air Force must have the B-I
and the F-1.5.
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73B00296R000200230003-2
NEW YORK TIMES DATE '?
SATELLITES SPOT
A SOVIET 1311111-11P
FOR ATOMIC ARMS
illany Silos Reported as Well
as Increased Facilities to
Build Missile Vessels
SUBMARINE TALLY IS 41
U.S. Officials Cite Urgency
of Reaching an Agreement
on Weapons Control
By WILLIAM BEECHER
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, Oct. 10?
Satellite photos of the Soviet
Union have uncovered evidence
of a substantial build-up of
more and better strategic nu-
clear weapons.
The new information shows
'that the Russians are continuing
to build two new classes of
,silos, or emplacements, for large
missiles, are constructing yet
a third type of new silo, and
are doubling the production
facilities for Soviet missile sub-
marines.
Some officials in the State
and Defense Departments and
the White House say this
build-up increases the need to
secure at least a first-step arms
control agreement as soon as
;possible.
! Others throughout the Gov-
ernment privately stress that
lunless this build-up is stopped"
Isoon, the United States may
feel impelled to expand its own
nuclear arsenal to maintain a
ibalance of strategic power.
Reluctance on Details
A senior Pentagon official,
pressed for details on the ex-
tent and character of the Soviet
nuclear program, insisted that
Defense Department did not in-
tend to provide details of the
build-up until its next annual
report to Congress in February.
Other officials in various
Government departments were
sufficiently concerned, how-
ever, to sketch out some details
of the Soviet build-up.
The reconnaissance satellites
have found that the number of
silos of two different sizes gen-
erally believed designed for
improved or entirely new long-
range missiles now exceeds 90
?up from the 10 noted early
this year and 60 seen in mid-
summer. The smaller of these
silos is significantly larger
than the 10-foot diameter of the
Russian's largest operational
missile, the SS-9.
A third type of silo, larger
than the others, has been
sighted, with one each at sev-
eral missile complexes. Analysts
believe the new holes are
destined either for a special-
purpose new missile or a new
? type of command and control
facility.
The Russians now have about
141 Y-class missile submarines
ready or under construction,
thus drawing abreast of the
American Polaris submarine
force. The new intelligence
findings indicate a doubling in
size of the principal Soviet
nuclear submarine construction
yard at Severodvinsk, on the
White Sea.
1,600 Reported Completed
The total number of Russian
Intercontinental ballistic mis-
siles, completed or under con-
struction, is said to exceed
1,600, compared with 1,054 for
the United States. In addition
nearly 100 Soviet ICBM silos
at test and training centers
would be expected to be put
to use in a crisis; the United
States has only a handful of
such test silos.
The intelligence reports in-
dicate that the Russians are
working at what one senior
official calls an "incredibly in-
tense" pace in completing a
ring of antiballistic missile
sites around Moscow.
the arms-con01144aarelle &fit Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP7
such a delicatr stage e
Publicly, the Administration,
through ti President, has em-
phasized the hope for early
success in the talks to limit
strategic arms, which have
been on for two years.
On Sepe. 25, President Nixon
called tire prospects good.
Whether the two countries can
achieve an initial agreement
by year cnd, "no one can say
at this point," he declared. "We
have mace progress. I believe
the goal will be achieved."
No Charge of Blackmail
He conoluded: "Neither pow-
er at this time could, if it
wanted to, gain that superior-
ity which would enable it to,
frankly, blackmail the other
one."
But piivately, some senior
officials are less optimistic.
One official said:
"We have consistently un-
derestimated the numerical
goals of the Soviet missile
programs for 10 years. We
have also consistently assumed,
incorrectly I'm afraid, that
they bought our strategic con-
cept ? of deterrence.
"The obviously don't want
a nuclear war any more than
we. But .hey're building a suf-
ficient edge in nuclear strength,
and in conventional forces as
well, so they may have reason
to expect us to back down in
future confrontations,, as we
made them do in the Cuban
missile crisis of 1962."
Aim Is Deterrente
The American strategy is
based on having a nuclear
force that can ride out a sur-
prise attack and retaliate
against the attacker's cities
rather tan against his remain-
ing nuclear weapons. By main-
taining such an "assured de-
struction" capability, the strat-
egy seeks to deter nuclear war.
The aims-limitation talks are
aimed at curbing the number
of offensive and defensive nu-
clear weapons to the point
where neither side would feel
confident that it could destroy
the retaliatory capability of the
other in a surprise attack.
Administration officials differ
on the kind of missiles that are
to be deployed in the more than
' 90 new missile silos being built
at locations east and west of
the Ural Mountains.
The majority of analysts be-
lieve the Soviet Union would
not buill the huge silos unless
it intended to install much im-
proved versions of the SS-9 and
SS-11 ICBM's or even new gen-
38082196 RO epao62 mato&
proved accuracy, reliability and
warheads.
PAGE
Security a Possible Purpose
A minority view holds that
the new silos are designed to
provide greater security against
attack.
Silos of both types have been
constructed at the Tyuratam
missile test center and test fir-
ings are expected soon. Data
from such tests should dispell
much of the mystery surround-
ing the new silos, analysts be-
lieve.
The third type of new silo,
about four feet wider than the
largest ever seen, has now been
spotted, with one each at sev-
eral complexes.
Analysts are mystified about
the purpose of these silos. Some
speculate that they could house
well protected command and
control centers from which Rus-
sian missile officers could com-
mand nearby ICBM's in a war.
Others believe the holes are de-
signed for a special purpose
missile that is being dispersed
to achieve greater protection
against concentrated attack.
Among the possibilities cited
are the following: missiles de-
signed to carry special com-
munications satellites to com-
municate with Russian missile
submarines just before or dur-
ing a nuclear war; big rockets
set off very large explosions
over the United States in an
re.--....empt to black out its radar
and communications temporar-
ily or make it difficult to fire
ICBM's through large radioac-
tion cloud, and large missiles
to carry orbiting bombs in a
crisis to persuade the United
States to back down, much as
the forward flights of Ameri-
can B-52 bombers during the
Cuban missile confrontation
were designed to force the Rus-
sians to remove their missies
,from Cuba.
AljOdyed For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP731300296K0020Q230003-2
loe, !
NEW YORK TIMES
SOVIET MAY HAVE
NEW MISSILE DI '72
Penagon Aides Say Tests
Appear Near Conclusion
? By WILLIAM BEECHER
Special to The New York Votes
WASHINGTON Dec. 2?r _Ali -
a eon an et
gn anneas1 to bg negang
glier.pqcfu3 conclusion of
miiimytrat?t1Lat-UPY-104442118"113-
y
a9-
The missile, called the Saw-
fly by Western analysts, has a
range of up to 3,500 miles, ap-
proximately twice that of the
best Soviet operational subma-
rine missile. The best American
submarine missile, the Posei-
don, has a range of about 3,000
miles.
Analysts say there have been
about 15 tests of the Sawflyi
since mid-1969, with a flurry of
firings this fall. All but four{
or the tests were successful.,
sources say, and the failures
came early in the program.
'w thin they can and
1 uoy neirt
senior o sai .
UtrroaQ3311nalysts -Mligirjr"the;
new missiles will first be car-
ried by one of two existing ;
types of Soviet submarines. the,
H-class or the Y-class. Later, it {
is expected they will be car-
red by a new submarine de-
signed for them.
Earlier this week, the De-
fense Department awarded a
contract to Lockheed Aircraft
Corporation to develop a
longer-range submarine mis-
sile. Unofficial estimates are
that it will have a range of
about 4,000 miles. It will not
be available, however, for sev-
eral years.
The importance of longer
range, analysts explained, is
that it provides a larger area
of ocean for submarine to hide
in while still being able to
reach its target.
Sources say there have been
at least four Sawfly test fir-
ings since September. The mis-
siles are launched from a na-
val missile testing center near
the White Sea across the So-
viet Union, landing in the Kam-
chatka Peninsula in Soviet
Asia.
DATE_
Sources say the Sawfly car-
ries a "significantly larger"
warhead than the Soviet SSN-
6 missile, 16 of which are car-
ried on each Y-class subma-
rine. The SSN-6 is estimated to
carry a warhead of from one
to two megatons. A megaton
is a measure of explosive force
equal to a million tons of TNT.
Megaton Warhead for Poseidon
Most American Polaris mis-
siles carry a one-megaton war-
head. The Poseidon missile,
which is being placed on 31 oi
the 41 Polaris submarines, car.:
ries from 10 to 14 warheath,
of about 40 kilotons each. A
kiloton is equivalent to 1,000
tons of TNT.
Sources note that while the
Soviet has been actively test-
ing various multiple warhead;
on their missiles, none of
these tests has been specifi-
cally associated with the Saw-
fly.
e anal
WI cone
vie missi e su marine ro am
ecause e ussians n
or
lIt
evero vins on rue
Ti
=
?ma,.rit..
--- are .uit.
The United States Is attemr t-
ing, in arms-control negotia-
tions, to persuade the Russia-is
to stop building missile sub-
marines as well as land-bas
id
missiles. So far, knowledge-
able administration sources say,
the Russians have been cool
to including missile submarines
In a strategic weapons freeze.
In addition to Y-class sub-
marines, the Soviet Union also
has about 10 H-class crafts,
which carry three 600-mile mis-
siles each.
There has been considerable
speculation that the Russians
might place the Sawfly first in
the H-class submarine, because,
600-mile missiles require the
Russians to come too close to
shore in order to hit inland tar- t
gets. The closer the submarine
comes to shore, the greater the!
chance of its discovery and
sts
are
articu-
Jt
? "
S.
.r411?114 Mirne u tines a ? .
I!' Ill of
Zejltly itaabling the size
their construction facila
cre
PAGE
But just as the United States
has started a program to place '
its advanced Poseidon missile{
on all but 10 of its 41 Polaris
submarines, the Russians might,
want to modernize their Y-class
fleet the same way, some
analysts suggest.
In addition to missile sub-i
marines, the Soviet also has 1
about 35 submarines that carry
from six to eight cruise missiles,
each with a 400-mile range.
These are regarded as primarily'
designed for use against surface
ships, rather than targets
ashore.
Approved For Release 2000/09/08 : CIA-RDP73600296R000200230003-2