FUTURE TRENDS IN R&D

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP72-00039R000100340001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 43
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 4, 1970
• Content Type: MEMO

GSA GEN. REG. NO. 27
MAY 1962 EDITION r
r OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
5010-107 sEc,rf7
UNITED All'pfPNWICKWEelifiElf?N4006/05/24 : CIA-RDP72-00039R000100340001-1
Memorandum
TO : Chief, Support Services Staff DATE: 4 AUG 1970
FROM : special Assistant for R&D, OC
SUBJECT: Future Trends in R&D
1. Attached for your information is a copy of a paper
titled "Some Implications of Technology for R&D Program
25X1 Planning" by I 1 Chairman of the Agency
R&D Board. This paper indicates trends in the future for
R&D.
2. It may be useful to let this paper have fairly wide
routing. Many areas of direct concern to the Support
Directorate are not discussed in the paper, but it can provide
a springboard for discussion of the role of technology in
problems of more immediate Support Directorate interest.
Att
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
1. The attached paper is a draft intended to
illestrate a sort of approach which I believe might be
useful in identifying and assessing trends pertinent to
the structuring of an effective R&D program. The draft
is sketchy and frequently overdrawn for emphasis.
2. I solicit your comments for change in organiza-
tion and content. Ultimately, such a paper which could
be used as a starting point for what would hopefully be
a continuing dialogue with ONE and others to solicit and
evoke the best possible trend estimates in terms that
would be useful in shaping and directing the R&D program.
bpecial Assistant to tne
?
DD/S&T
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Some Implications of Technology
for R&D Program Planning
July, .1970
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INTRODUCTION
The objective of this paper is to illustrate the impact
of technology in several areas--political, social, economic,
andrai-giving emphasis to special technological fields
which appear to be particularly pertinent with respect to
their influence on the future to derive some implications
with respect to the Agency and, in particular, to the
content and organization of the R&D program plans.
Developments in Japan will be considered to illustrate the
potential which may exist for currently underdeveloped
nations to grow rapidly through the exploitation of
technology.
The pervasive and irresistible force which is changing
the world and the affairs of men at an increasing rate is
technology.
The pervasive nature of technology is frequently over-
looked. While the role of technology is apparent in activities
such as space programs, the relationship between technology
and agriculture, for example, is not so clear. There is,
however, a synergistic coupling, so the impact of technology
in any one field is extended by related developments in
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other tvermg Foreeemesnegow4bRecpuztowpmcitootopoldr
example, the development of better weather forecasts
through the employment of satellites will result in
improved crop yields. In addition, however, some abilities
with respect to forecasting of crop yields may also
be achieved through the use of satellite reconnaissance.
Similar kinds of relationships exist throughout technology.
The improved instrumentation in technology, particularly
in electronics, has had a very significant effect upon
the medical sciences providing instrumentation for experi-
mentation and analysis hitherto impossible. Eventually
progress in science expands the kinds of alternative actions
which become technologically feasible in industry, commerce,
social affairs, etc.
. Technical capabilities far in excess of well defined
needs have been apparent since the beginning of the
century, but most particularly since World War II.
Einstein, for example, observed, "Perfection of
confusion of of goals seem to characterize our age."(1)
The g...K2Hth_of science and technology has received
much attention. Roughly speaking, the number of scientists
and engineers in the western world has doubled about every
12 to 15 years for the last 300 years. The same rate of growth
has also Occurred in scientific and technical literature.
What is not generally appreciated, however, is that this very
?2?_
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rapid growth has finally reached a point where it can no longer
continue for an extended period of time in the more developed
nations--say the United States and the Soviet Union.
Currently, scientists and engineers comprise approximately
two percent of the eighty million people in the labor force of
the United States. In five more doubling periods--60 to 75
years--well over half of the labor force would be scientists
and engineers if the present rate of growth were to continue.
This is obviously infeasible. While an upper limit remains
to be established, the important fact, nevertheless, is that
the present total population of scientists and engineers is
now significant in terms of magnitude with respect to the
total labor force.
Two characteristics of research and development may be
more important in the long run than the direct products
Ch.aagg?Jia?xate:_sta
produced through R&D activities.
ILLEGIB Vnge
e c9PLanc
Morg,signi4capt47 'Change is evident
in the development of new ways to do things as well as in the
refinement of existing products. As the size of the R&D
community, and as the technology becomes increasingly .
abundant, the rate of change also increases. Ultimately,
,
#10$e 411gee re ukre rethinking about. theway organizations
function.j1n9e the Ichanes rare
li:ettern
The difficulty of categorization has certainly been a
It neat
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factor leading to the neglect of the impact of technology on
established fields. Because technical developments often fail
to fit well within classical lines, there is confusion and
difficulty in accounting for technology in analyses of
political, economic, and other types of studies. In the
field of economics, for example, some of the more ambitious
writers have chided their colleagues for failing to properly
consider such things as invention in their studies. In the
following sections only the more obvious areas of impact will
be mentioned to suggest some approaches which might be taken
which would be of significance for intelligence and R&D planning.
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POLITICAL
World law may be strengthened as a potentially effective
force which may be needed to insure against irrational actions
on the part of individual nations. Norman Cousins recently stated:
The major obligation of national governments,
as John Locke saw it, was to respect and protect the
lives, properties, and culture of their peoples.
This was a major aspect of the social contract. But
this contract is now beyond the means of any govern-
ment to fulfill. For no state today can protect its
people." (2)
The developments leading to the condition which Cousins
describes are technological. While nuclear weapons were
primarily for military purposes, the impact has been important
politically. As typified by nuclear weapons, the side effects
of the many technological developments are both pervasive and
extensive, and in many instances technology tends toward the
disestablishment of existing organizations. Technology may
not "burn it down," but in terms of evoking basic changes
in political as well is other organizations it may well have
no pe6r.(3)
The forcing nature of technology upon political
organizations can readily be appreciated in considering the
air transportation problem. At the domestic level, a
variety of Federal, State, and local organizations,
together with their laws, constitute a substantial impediment
to .the most effective implementation of a comprehensive and
efficient air transport system.: When only a few aircraft
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were flying and only a few passengers were using the
airports, the overlapping jurisdictions created no great
problem. Now air travel accounts for 70% of the passenger
traffic miles travelled in the United States, and the size
of the operation means that arterial highways and other
elements become critical in the operation of the system. (4)
Advancing technology has provided a more attractive method
of transportation, namely air transportation, which is
in turn causing disruptive pressures upon existing political
organizations. The domestic air transport problems have
their counterparts, of course, on an international basis.
Technology has provided the means for increased productionv
in order to supply the wants of an expanding population.
The attendant pollution is now a major political issue.
By and large the existing political structures are not well
adapted to dealing with these kinds of problems since they
fail to respect political boundaries and jurisdictions.
\.,Almost any pollution problem involves local, State, and
Federal agencies--frequently more than one at each level. (5)
Air transportation and air pollution although far less
dramatic than the impact of nuclear weapons are cited merely
to illustrate the fact that existing political structures
are by and. large not suited to dealing with the problems
created by technology--regardless of the type of technology
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or the political level involved?and intelligence interests
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may thus arise in hitherto neglected areas.
The desires which technology promises to fulfill
provide a great incentive to proceed with the development of
new programs--space programs, etc.--but in an increasing number
of cases the cost of the programs are too great for any one
nation to be able to afford the program on an exclusive basis.
Information from some satellites--such as weather data--
is already being shared on an international basis. The
Earth Resources Technology Satellite, "ERTS" will extend
the data base well beyond weather alone and may provide
information of importance to commercial fisheries,
agriculture, mining, shipping, etc. Although ERTS remains
a United States program, ultimately some questions will
be raised about the Use of U.S. funds and talent to collect,
reduce, and communicate data which is of interest to non-
U.S. nations gratis.
?
These programs, and other programs of similar nature,
have obvious potential for the development of international
agreements requiring the participating nations to give up at
least a degree of their sovereignty in order to share in
the benefits obtainable only through cooperative action.
A particularly striking example of an international
organization formed to exploit technology is INTELSAT.
Membership in the International Telecommunications Satellite
Consortium increased early in 1970 to 75 nations. During
n I
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1969 the number of nations actually served by the
satellite communications increased from 27 to 52. The
Communication -Satellite Corporation (COMSAT) serves as the
operator for INTELSAT. COMSAT, however, is subject to
the jurisdiction of four separate Federal entities. Needless
to say the corporation may at times be hindered by dis-
agreements with respect to policy among these four entities.
Since the satellites which COMSAT operates are procured on
a competitive basis, political reorganizationin order to
make the corporation more efficient may be required if
foreign nations become able to do an equivalent or better
job at less cost to the consortium.
The impact of technology in the political area is not
confined merely to the structure and relationships of political
organizations. The problems that are generated extend all the
way to political/social borders and matters pertaining to
individuals' rights a, for example, the fransplantation of
organs and the invasion of privacy through various data pig-
cessing mechanisms. In examining the legal problems associated
with technology, one writer goes so far as to argue that
scientific and technological developments will have more
control over the nature and direction of public policy than
political and legal doctrines. (8)
Although the research and development program in the
United States is largely unstructured, this is not true in
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all nations, and as technology becomes of greater political
significance, substantial changes may occur both in the
United States and elsewhere. l_tamiasy euag121,,hmt
tkrang9d-n9,i; r0SedrCh -program in term of maj9t
..,effortsmcliasiKuMan i6ienc-is;lifciences
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ban plAaang and transport- etc ' anjlans to increase;
the _R&D inv'estmerit frord72:-.Zt_Pf the, GEos,9.,NW42nal,_Podt!it
19171.,t0-:3ft by 1975, with the goal of 35% b41913,04 17%
of the expenditures would be for military purposes.(9).
From a political point of view, then, technology in
the form of gunpowder initiated the demise of political and
social organizations built around previously impregnable
castles, and, currently, in the form of nuclear power threatens
the existence of the nation-state. Ne./ alignments and new
organizations are forced by the necessity to accommodate new
technologies with which existing political structures are
inconsistent. Political theory as well as political
?
organizations have clearly not kept pace with the growth
of technology. Kingman Brewster, Jr., speaking on the
threat of impatience, and citing complexity as one of thb
targets of impatience, recently stated the basic concern,
The structures of a technological society seem hopelessly
complicated, beyond the reach of most, seemingly unmanageable
even to the few who do grasp the levers of power." (10).
,
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SOCIAL
Warren Bennis and Philip Slater described the temporary
society primarily in terms of the physical movement of
people from place to place, and the attendant disruption
of social ties. As the Post Office well knows, approximate-
ly 20% of the addresses in the United States change each
year. Technology has been primarily responsible for this
change from a relatively fixed to a highly mobile society
and the associated serious social implications.
A social change which appears is less well appreciated,
but may be even more significant than physical mobility, is
the rate at which technology is making many jobs obsolete--
and creating new jobs in their place. It is difficult to
overestimate the impact which technology has on skills
requirements in the labor force. In the United States
the introduction of new fertilizers, modern methods, and
new machinery on the farms has resulted in a tremendous
increase in productivity--at the same time drastically
reduced the need for unskilled labor on the farm. This
general trend can be observed in a number of areas.
Between 1947 and 1964 the manual workers in the labor
force fell from 41% of the total to 36% while white
collar workers rose from 35% to 44%. In general,
unemployment has been concentrated among those with little
education or skill, while employment has been rising most
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the most skilled and to require the most education. (11).
Displacement from obsolete jobs, although originally
beginning at the lower levels of employment, is not re-
stricted to this area. It is increasingly clear that
the use of computers in new management systems has made
serious inroads upon the normal activities of middle
managers. More recently, some professional opinions may
be compared with analyses using vast data bases. For
example, medical diagnoses may be compared against probabi-
listic estimates developed through computer techniques.
The social unrest created by these trends cannot be assuaged
by attacking the machines--as the Luddites learned. Innova-
tions in the social area comparable in scope and timeliness
to those which are occurring in the technological area are
needed--but lacking.
The pervasive nature of the impact of technology upon
social institutions can readily be illustrated. The
technological feasibility of population control on a broad
basis through a variety of techniques has been clearly
established. These developments have had a severe impact
upon issues which are basic to many social institutions,
/
1
especially churches. The displacement of the agricultural
worker from the farms has been previously mentioned.
R. Buckminster Fuller has illustrated the magnitude of
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technological advance in terms of the energy available to
the average citizen. 30 years ago he calculated the total
energy generated in the U.S. as equal to the muscular
energy that would be generated if every American had 153
slaves working for him. Today a similar calculation
would indicate about 500 slaves for every American man,
woman, and child. (12). The ways in which the "slaves"
are used differs widely. Considering only communications,
for example, there simply are not enough women in the
country today to operate the telephone switchboards. On
the other hand, although productivity in the private sector
has increased on an average of 32% in the last 15 years, the
productivity of the postal worker has increased only 2.3%.(13)
An increasing population which demands more and better services
must look to automation which can be achieved through the
implementation of technology.'
The advances which R. Buckminster Fuller illustrated
had to do with physical power. The growing trend today in
technology has to do with brain-like power. More sophisticated
ways of manipulating larger and larger data files has explosive
potential in applications which have yet to be given serious
attention. As an example, the accumulation of vast amounts of
personal data in computer files is seen by many as a great
threat to privacy. However, it may be anticipated that the
convenience of automatic credit card shopping will be chosen
at the sacrifice of a degree of privacy to the data required
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in order to make such a system operate. The erosion of privacy -
has about reached the point where privacy is now a lost cause. (14).
Automatic credit transaction files, coupled with others, could
conceivably be operated to provide a near real-time census,
give rapid indications of trends in consumer spending, incidence
of diseases and illnesses--and a host of other "intelligence"
whose-potential is not actively considered because it is
not yet at hand.
For some reason the requirement for continuing
education does not seem to be as clearly perceived as
the fact. that technology is making many current skills
obsolete. The half life of engineers has been variously
estimated to be between 10 to 15 years. Obsolescence in
other jobs may range widely depending uponthe technological
impact. If it becomes true, however, that a real dropout
is one who does not continue education actively after
graduation from high ichool or college, then the already ?
rapidly increasing expenditures for education can be expected
to continue.. Government costs are growing most rapidly
at the State level, and at the State level the increased
costs. are primarily for education. It is interesting to
note, however, that R&D expenditures by State government
agencies are not strongly directed toward improving the
efficiency and effectiveness of education but, rather,
"In 1967 and 1968 over 40% of total State expenditures
for research and development went to the area of health
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and hospitals, and 25% for natural resources; approximately
10% went for highway research and development. Other
areas receiving R&D support by States were education.
(10%)..."(15). Z.12e P2.semintilzum3LE.rovidesortewarnin.
signals about simply adding more people to solve growing
problems.
In addition to the effects of the technology upon
society, the rapidly increasing numbers of scientists
and engineers in the total population may also be expected
to have substantial effect. In the 16 year period from
1950 to 1966 total employment increased by only 24% while
the numbers of scientists and engineers in the United
States increased by 156%. The population of scientists
and engineers as a percent of total, employmentchanged
during that period from 0.9% to 1.9% of the total employment.
Further, only a portion of the scientists and engineers
are engaged in research and development-I-varying from
28% In 1950 to 37% in 1966. (16). Clearly, the rapid
growth of scientists and engineers as a percentage of
the total employed population will not continue to increase
at a rate substantially greater than that of the employed
population as a whole. But at least in the immediate
future an increased presence in a variety of different
positions by people having scientific and technical educational
backgrounds may have a substantial sociological effect. In
a survey of 6,000 executives in industry by the Harvard
Graduate School of Public Administration, it was determined that
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only 35% of the executives who were 55 years of age and
over had backgrounds in engineering and science. This
increased to 40% in the age groups 50 to 54: to 45% in
the age group 45 to 49: to 50% in the age group 40 to 44;
and 55% in the age group 35 to 39.(17). In time, then,
as the older executives retire an increasing proportion
of executives in industry will have engineering and scientific
backgrounds. This growing domination in executive positions
is further evident in executive openings during the period
July to September 1968. Of the 9,810 openings during this
11 week period, 47% were for openings for engineering and
scientific positions. These trends in the United States
are not unique.
The social changes which have been made through communi-
cations, through the growing number of scientific and technical
personnel in the labor force, and other factors including
loss of privacy and potential widespread population control,
would appear to be of less significance to the future than
the experimental developments and the increasing body of
knowledge pertaining to memory and how the mind works.
Although very preliminary in nature, significant developments.
?have occurred indicating that some form of knowledge or
memory may be transmitted through chemical processes--that
chemicals or drugs may be used to both improve or to inbibit
long and short term memory which may be further reflected
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as influencing learning ability. These programs, taken
together with increased knowledge regarding the use of
artifical organs and genetic engineering, hint at the elimination
of some current social problems--and the development of
questions of ethics and morality in their place. (18).
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CONCS
Although the rich do get richer and the poor do get
poorer, the poor get poorer only in relationship to the
richness of the rich. Actually an increase in productivity,
or to put it another way, an increase in Gross National
Product per capita is anticipated among virtually all
the major populations and countries of the world. This
increase in abundance or increase in productivity is achieved
for the most part by the adaptation of new technological
methods and devices. While precise estimates relating
.the growth to the expenditures in science and technology
do not exist, certainly science and technology contribute
in a major way. This is not particularly surprising
since some special studies have shown from time to time
that a particular type of technology--inventiveness and
entrepreneurship--are highly sensitive to the perceived
opportunity to benefit economically on the part of the ?
inventor or the entrepreneur.(19).
The rapid impact which new technological industries
can have may be appreciated by considering that in 1945
the television, jet travel, and digital computer industries
were commercially non-existent, while in 1965 these industries
contributed more than $13 billion to the Gross National
Product, and an estimated 900,000 jobsl'and importantly,
affected the quality of living. (20)
1,..icaltise1of! high labor costs and other factors, it
!
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is new technology that is responsible for the products
which result in a favorable balance for the U.S. in inter-
national trade. Exports of cotton and wool fell from $197
million in 1956 to $125 million in 1965, while during the
same period exports of synthetics rose from $158 million
to $241 million.(21). Royalties alone from technical know-
how amounted to $514 million in 1965. Consider a single
area, the aerospace industry, in which the United States
has a superior position. During the ten yr, from 1960
J.9.69, the total U.S. trade balance fell from slightly
oyer $5 billion to slightly more than $1 billion, but aerospace
exports alone rose from $1.7 billion to $3.2 billion giving
arising trade balance in this field from $1.6 billion
to $2.9 billion._ Thus, the aerospace trade balance, as
a percent of the U.S. total, rose from 31% in 1960 to 240%
in 1969.(22).
As technology becomes increasingly important both
. in terms of new products and in the development of new
techniques for the production of existing products, a better
understanding of the economics of technology will be needed.
in
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MILITARY
The impact of technology on military operations became
obvious in World War II with the development of the nuclear
bomb. Developments in aircraft and radar, along with many
other innovations, had a significant effect upon the outcome
of this conflict. Operational intercontinental ballistic
missiles, a more recent development in the last ten years,
have captured an increasing amount of public interest as
well as an increasing share of the military budget.
Of speCial significance is the temporary advantage
which technology provides in terms of weaponry. The edge
which any nation has over any other in scientific areas
is small, but technological developments may be implemented
. only to the degree to which the superior country has a
supporting industrial or technological base required fOr
weapon fabrication. Nuclear weapons have been developed
by the Soviet Union, France, and Communist China, in addition
'..to the United States. The rate of proliferation, however,
may now increase dramatically as nuclear material processing
technology proliferates because of interest in this'technology.
for processing material to be used as fuel in power plants.
For example, Ultra-Centrafuge Netherlands, NVF., is a new
company created to develop and exploit the gas centrafuge
method of enriching uranium. This Dutch, British, and
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German combine may be extended to include Italy and Belgium,
and Japan may also be investigating such a development.
(23). This situation illustrates a maturing technology
and fabrication ability becoming widely available concurrent
with a basic need--more and cheaper power.
Less dramatically, but perhaps more significantly,
the variety of sensors which may be used to obtain vital
information for tactical operations--low light television
cameras, infrared devices, seismic sensors, etc.-- may
be coupled with automatic data processing equipment to
provide 'a tactical Commander with a very rapid assessment
of his own and hi g enemy's alternatives. With higher battle
field mobility already an accomplished fact,the time-consuming
development of intelligence must be reduced by the use
of automated techniques.v Ultimately this could develop
Into a trend toward automatic battlefield operations with
various weapons targetted and operated remotely. In effect,
, technological developments in sensors have produced a tactical
information explosion which seems likely to revolutionize
tactical doctrine as well as equipment. Highly mobile ?
fire Power from helicopters has frequently been credited
with significantly reducing American casualties in Vietnam.
Although very expensive in terms of dollars, public pressures
and other factors are such as to make such expenditures
preferable to casualties.
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? In military operations as well as in the field of
political science, economics, social activities, the spectrum
has been widened by technological developments. While
an all out nuclear exchange remains a possibility, warfare
in a variety of hitherto unprecedented forms in terms of
the weapons employed are now extant. Again, as in other
fields, what will be done with the spectrum of alternatives,
versus what can be done is highly uncertain. In the case
of the Israeli/Egyptian conflict, for example, a short
and intensive campaign exercising modern weapons to the
utmost has been followed by an extended period of a very
different form. /In Southeast Asia, on the other hand,
the technological potential of U.S. Forces has not been
fully exercised. Under different circumstances, as in
Czechoslovakia, overwhelming military superiority has achieved
immediate political goals virtually overnight.
Because of the continuing involvement of the United
States in Vietnam it may be difficult to objectively appreciate
and evaluate the variety of military actions which might
be undertaken. Technologies which may be normally associated
with i)eaceful applications, but which have not yet been
exploited for military purposes, may not be perceived in
terms of their ultimate potential. Weather modification
might be employed for military purposes on a local or regional
basis. Lasers have already bean used for a variety of
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military purposes, and might be used as weapons either
now or in the near future.
To amplify Norman Cousins view about the ability of
the most powerful nations on earth today to defend its
people, technology would seem to have broadened the spectrum
of attack to such an extent that the costs of an adequate
defense are prohibitive for any nation. rThere is no acceptable
defense in existence today against an all out nuclear attack--
nor is there an acceptable military posture to preclude
incidents of the Pueblo-type--and the impotence of modern
military forces in situations such as Vietnam has also ,
been clearly demonstrated.
V
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JAPAN (24 )
Japan provides an exceptional example of what may
occur when technology is exploited in a compatible environment.
Although occupied until 1952 the rate of growth in the
Japanese GNP was about 9% per annum in the 1950's and in
the 60's averaged approximately 10%, increasing to 13 to
14% more recently, and in 1968 reached 14.9%. Some sources
estimate that an 11% growth rate may be maintained for
at least the next five years.
? Although Japanese expenditures on R&D amount to 1.8%
of the Gross National Product--which is somewhat less than
the amount spent in other major countries--75% of these
funds come from industry, whereas in most other countries
approximately 60% of the funds come from the Government.
In electronics, in particular, 98% of the R&D funds are
provided by industry which contrasts sharply with the 35%
of the electronic R&D funds provided by industry in the
. United States.
Science and technology manpower as a portion of the
total labor force of Japan rose from 13% in 1955 to 22%.
in 1963. Further, the science and technology manpower
was concentrated in heavy industries.
As is frequently mentioned of course, Japan has not
had to devote a substantial part of its wealth for defense
expenditures. Expenditures for defense generally run something'
? ?
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under 1% of the Gross National Product, or approximately
8% of the Government budget.
Although commonly regarded as a great exporter, the
Japanese internal market is very large, and the Japanese
exports total only about 10% to 12% of their total output.
This is about half the export ratio for West Germany and
Great Dritain. Further, although highly regarded in terms
of electronics and optics, Japanese exports are now concentrated
in the heavy industries--the leading areas being iron,
chemicals, and motors. Nevertheless,,the production of
colored television sets in Japan in 1970 is estimated at
six million--more than the estimated U.S. production.
A good deal of Japan's ability to grow through the
exploitation of techndlogy and modern Methods has been
due to the political stability of the environment. For
example, when Eisaku Sato became Premier, 13 of the 18
Cabinet members were replaced, but there were only slight
'..shifts in policy. In addition to political stability,
the unions in Japan tend to be vertically organized. West
Germany's unions were also restructured in a vertical fashion
after World War II. Only the United States and Great Britain
still suffer the impediment df horizontal craft unions'
objections .to the introduction of innovations in manufacturing,
etc. Whenever a product line is no longer profitable,
or whenever union demands increase the labor cost to a
, -24-
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'point where the necessary margins cannot be achieved, retraining
of employees and retooling of the plant may be undertaken
in Japan with minimum objection in order to move into more
profitable areas.
Science and technology also tend to be more on top
and less on tap than is characteristic in many other countries.
The head of the Science and Technology Agency, which was
established in 1956, holds ministerial rank and, in fact,
the present Premier at one time was head of that agency.
. The realistic accommodation to the nature of technology
and the rapid rate of change associated with it is also
reflected in the tax structure. For example, a depreciation
of 95% is allowed on laboratory equipment for research
and development in the very first year of its use in accordance
with laws passed in 1964. This rapid write-off allows
the R&D entrepreneur to quickly recover his capital in
these areas and strongly encourages the use of modern plant
equipment.
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AGENCY IMPLICATIONS
Those who produce consumer products are acutely aware
that the half, life of the products they produce grow shorter
and shorter as technology replaces the existing products
with new and different entities. In order to remain effective,
a producer must come to terms with the shifting market.
This needs to be well recognized by intelligence organizations,
but the trend seems to be more directed toward doing yesterday's
important job better. For example, has the relative importance
of maintaining files op, individuals with respect to the
importance of keeping files on the development of technologies
changed? Should a major shift be made from preoccupation
with nuclear weapons and guided missiles to viruses and
genes, or to put it another way, from physics to biochemistry?
Harvard scientists announced last December that they had
isolated a gene for the first time, and Nobel Prize. winner
Gobin Khorana announced last month that a team which he
had led had created a gene from simple organic chemicals. (25).
Should this development rank in significance with the achieve-
ment of a chain reaction in the development of nuclear '
weapons? Precise intelligence applications associated
. with such developments may be somewhat obscure, but careful
attention should certainly be paid to the "shifting market"
in both broad areas of concern as well as internal capabilities.
More things will become more important in more places.
? ?????-%.
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Technologies which may have serious implications with
respect to the United States grow increasingly---and
rapidly--and come within the capabilities of an increasing
number of nations. As mentioned, more than a little interest
with respect to gas centrifuges which may be used to enrich
uranium in order to obtain weapon grade fuel exists in
Germany, Holland, Italy, Belgium, Japan, and certainly
other nations. The problem which this typifies is how
to adequately keep track of an increasing number of potential
e '1,- . ? ^.
threats throughout increasingly expanding geographical
areas.
Since the source of threats may diverge considerably
40/1
from the traditional military one, some intelligence interests
may shift toward industrial and away from military activities.
In fact, the potential actions of some firms may be of
more significance than the actions of some countries.
Catapillar Tractor, General Motors, major non-U.S. firmi,,
and the like are now the organizations on which the sun
never sets. If society continues to become disenchanted
with what the nation state political arrangement can provide,
the importance in intelligence of industrial organizations
may significantly increase.
Certainly a primary implication is that any intelligence
9rganization must become and remain increasingly adaptive.
Implicit in this is the need fpr continuous education both
formal and informal. If, for example, informa.tion storage
?
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and retrieval activities are to be automated, it is important
to recognize this sufficiently in advance so that the necessary
personnel may be educated to have the required skills when
N, needed. The same situation exists with respect to intelligence
analysts and similar examples may be found in virtually
all Agency operations.
tecl-n.otlthemostprocluctiypg, _
those whose abilities are not restricted to one particular
discipline. Their special contributions come through playing
l'!'"0100081""TeL6MMIK
not on the pure "keys", but on the interdisciplinary "cracks"
between the keys. For instance, a solution to a problem
may not be found, say, in biology or in physics, but in
biophysics. To an increasing degree, then, continuing
education must become a regular part of doing business
_
-------
and accommodating change.
Given limited limited manpower and limited funds, the ability
to move on to new and developing areas is dependent upon
withdrawing from current areas of interest. A tendency
to know more and more about less and less is certainly
inconsistent with the task of being alert and effective.
to expanding fields of activities. If the CIA is to be
4-ytroA
a 4-ererunner in the Intelligence Community, then some work
will have to be terminated or shifted to other organizations--
when that work\becomes routine. Since people now feel
most confident\and secure in the areas in which they are
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most expert, conventional ideas about career patterns and
extensive specialization may have to be revised so that
confidence can be achieved in a chronically changing skill
environment.
There is a great need for studies that can identify
important new intelligence targets in a timely way. In
?ARY?001?3....ft wt. WM.
view Of the rate at which things are changing and new devices
are developing it is safe to say that some primary sources
of threat have not yet been invented. This is no excuse,
however, for not analyzing carefully the information that
is available.
The difficulty of keeping up with a rapidly changing
technology and its implications in all areas can scarcely
be underestimated. For example, the data in the Science
Journal and Scientific American which were used extensively
in the section on Japan differs in many respects from predictions
made only a short time before by Kahn and Wiener in The
Year 2000. Kahn and Wiener estimated that Japan would
reach the 1965 U.S. GNP per capita of $3,600 in 22 years,
i.e., l987.(26). The prediction in the American Scientist,
however, is that if the present rates continue, the GNP
per capita in Japan will equal the GNP per capita in the
United States in 1988. Elsewhere Kahn and Wiener made
a Medium forecast that the Japanese GNP would equal or
exceed that of West Germany in 1975, whereas, in fact,
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the Japanese GNP exceeded the West German GNP in 1968.(27).
In part this stems from a use of a growth rate for Japan
by Kahn and Wiener of 6.8%. Although this may be reasonable
in terms of the long term nature of Kahn and Wiener's interest,
the much higher rate which has existed in the past few
years is obviously significant.
To be more effective, then, it may be necessary for
the Agency to loosen up or disestablish to achieve the
necessary degree of adaptability in order to organize differently,
focus differently, and operate differently as new areas
?
become important and old areas decrease in importance at
.
an increasing-rite; How else can one come to terms with
a shifting marketZ?..,
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RD&E IMPLICATION
The impact of a rapidly changing and expanding technology
are especially severe in the development of techniques
and devices for intelligence collection, communications,
information processing, and in other fields. The expand-
ing and changing technology is also becoming more sophisticated
which means that more complexity must be anticipated.
If the intelligence targets shift rapidly it also means
that the R&D "plant", as well as the skills possessed
by the R&D personnel, must be rapidly depreciated in terms
of their 'effectiveness.
It is easy to identify a number of situations in
which current efforts reflect more what can be done than
+,???????*
????*?? "04.T. .re
what should be done. Clearly, at this time the potential
for rapid proliferation of a nuclear capability exists,
but only a very limited amount of thinking is devoted
How
seriously should this be taken? Is there an R&D problem?
/Lasers 11:ave a definite weapon potential and are far more
advanced than the nuclear technology was in 1939, but
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This is not a new problem?it has been extant for some
time, and it is clearly known that Soviet laser technology
is generally superior to that of the United States. What
about weather modification? What about
What about chronic information needs on
diagnostiyill old problems yield to
Business as usual will clearly not
biochemical areas?
nuclear weapons
new techniques?
suffice. More
attention must be given to the identification of potent
technologies and sciences and a wider range of risks must
be accepted in terms of developing appropriate reconnaissance
or surveillance equipment in order to achieve adequate
lead time. More expense will no doubt be entailed and
completely new systems for communications and analysis
must be developed. In order to design, develop, and operate
this equipment, changing organizational patterns must
be anticipated. Increasing use of task force type of
4.111,51.,
groups and broad partiapation by many individuals in /
a number of areas will be required. Very deliberate decisions
regarding what will be done and what will be left undone
must be made in view of the great importance of obtaining
the maximum benefit from the resources which may be available.
To an' increasing degree scientific and technical
personnel must be concerned not only with the R&D activity
but also in the estimate of what impact technologies may
have in the future. Some of the officers who majored
in the physical sciences should be back in college taking
courses in life sciences, cybernetics, and in other developing
?
._?
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fields. They should also be taking some courses in political
science, sociology, and similar fields in order to improve
their understanding of these areas and their ability to
communicate with experts in these fields. Techniques
such as DELPHI which accommodate a multidiscipline approach
to forecasting will no doubt find increasing use as the
scope of many problems become broader and broader. In
urban problems, for example, Jay Forester has
illustrated the fact that intuitive solutions
be very efficient and, in fact, he finds that
convincingly
may not
large systems
tend to be counterintuitive. To be effective, then, techniques
such as DELPHI or others require the participation of
individuals who are broadly skilled, and the development
of system models which may be used. to sharpen and improve
the estimative process.
More automation, more pre-selection of alternative
actions under a richer range of situations, more interactive
processes organizing and analyzing data from increasingly
diverse sources in near-real time, etc., etc. Reluctantly,
.perhaps, developments of end devices, communications,
processing, control, and other elements which sum to what
must eventually be recognized for what is is--operational
cybernetics.
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REFERENCES
1. Albert Einstein, Out of a Later Years, 1950,
p.113.
2. Norman Cousins, "Restoring Rationality to a
Tumultous World," Bell Telephone Magazine, 48:4
(July/August 1969), p.6.
Peter Drucker cites this development as a significant
fact in the communications gap between youths and adults:
And no government, whether its territory
spans the continents or is smaller than one
city block, can any longer discharge the first
duty of government: protection from, and defense
against, attack from outside. It is perfectly
true that most of the new "ministates" are politi-
cal absurdities, defenseless against the threat
of instant annihilation. But so are the "super-
powers" in this age of nuclear "overkill." With
nuclear weapons being easy to make and, in effect,
available to the smallest and weakest country,
there is no "defense." There is only--question-
ably-- "deterrence" by the threat of retaliation.
But if government cannot defend its people, the
first reason for the very existence of govern-
ment has gone.
This may be regarded as gross exaggeration.
It certainly is not the picture the older generation
still sees. But is is, increasingly, the reality.
It is the situation to which we react. And the
young people, who are not, as we older ones are,
influenced by the memories of our love affair with
government, see the monstrosity of government, its
disorganization, its lack of performance, and its
impotence rather than the illusions the older
generation still cherishes and still teaches 'in
/ the classroom.
The Age of Discontinuity, pp.224-225.
3. The disestablishing effects of technology on
bureaucracy, and the importance of the loose structure
characterized by democracy as being most adaptive to
technological change, is discussed extensively in Warren G.
Bennis and Philip Slater's book, The Temporary Society,
New York: Harper, and Rowe, 1968.. Two chapters, "The
,
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Inevitability of Democracy" and "The Death of Bureaucracy"
are especially pertinent.
4. A good overview of the air transport picture is
provided in recent testimony before Congress. U.S.
Congress, House, Committee on Science and Astronautics,
Subcommittee on Advanced Research and Technology. Issues
and Directions for Aeronautical Research and Development.
Tat Congress, 7a?Session, Washington: Government Printing
Office, 1970.
5. The Ohio River Valley pollution problem provides a
par.ticularly interesting illustration. About a dozen
major tributary rivers are involved and about ten basin
states. The Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Committee
(ORSANCO) was formed in 1948 to deal with this problem,
but has been largely ineffective. See Michael K. Bratkin
and Thomas L. Erlich, "A Major River Remains Polluted
Despite Years of Effort to Clean it Up," The Wall Street
Journal, 17 March 1969.
6. William E. Burrows, "Sizing Up the Planets," The
Wall Street Journal, 8 June 1970.
7, Detailed description of COMSAT may be found in
Report to the President and the Congress, Washington:
Communications Satellite Corporation, 20 April 1970.
p.77.
8. Arthur S. Miller, "Some Legal Problems Raised by
"Big Science"." An address at the Science Studies
Seminar, The University of Edinburgh, Nov..8, 1967.
p.38. This unpublished paper provides a provocative
discussion of the subject illustrating the trend for
science-based problems to generate faster than the
traditional legal processes can effectively react.
9. "Home Market for French R&D." Innovation, No.12.
1970. p.66.
10. Kingman Brewster, Jr. "If Not Reason, What?"
American Scientist. 58:2 (March - April 1970) p.174.
11. A broad discussion of the impact of technology
from a social point of view may be found in the report
of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and
Economic Progress. Technology and the American Economy,
Washington: Government Printing Office, February 1966.
The data cited appears on page 21.
,
t:
titl : ?
'
I , , ,
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12. Max Ways, "How to Think About the Environment,"
Fortune, February 1970. p.100 ff.
13. James H. Kennelworthy, "Technology puts the Zip
in Zip Code," Engineering XI:3 (May - June 1970), p.10.
14. For a discussion of computer technology in the
immediate future see H.R.J. Grosch, "Information Processing
in the 1970's," Technology and Change in the 70's.
A seminar sponsored by the UHTiac Divisia of Sperry Rand
Corporation, 1970. p.9. A presentation by Anthony J.
Wiener in Technology and Change in the 70's expands on
the impact of technology in "Some Sociological Consequences
of Advancing Technology," p.40ff.
/5. National Science Foundation, "Science Resources
Studies Highlights" NSF 70-13, Washington: National Science
Foundation, June 1970. p.l.
16.. National Science Foundation, Employment of
Scientists and Engineers in the U.S. 1950 - 1966. NSF-
68-30. Wasgrigton: The National Science Foundation, 1968.
17. Engineering Manpower Commission, Engineering
Manpower Bulletin No.12. New York: Engineering Manpower
Commission, January 1969. p.4.
18. Typical experimental work by psychoneurobio-
chemists emphasizing chemical effects and mental processes
are described by David Krech in C.S. Wallia, ed., Toward
Century 21, New York: Basic Books, 1970. pp.17-29.
Joshua Lederberg presents an overall, conservative view
in the same volume, "Human Implications of Biological
Discovery." For further broad description of develop-
ments of this type, see Gordon Rattray Taylor, The
Biological Time Bomb, New York: The World PublnTing
Company, 1968,
19. The responsiveness of inventors to economic *
opportunities is sharply described in Jacob Schmookler's
Invention and Economic Growth, Cambridge: Harvard
University Press, 1966.
20. Panel on Invention and Innovation. Technological
Innovation: It's Environment and Management. A Report of
a Panel convened by and reporarig to the Secretary of
Commerce. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office,
1967. p.4.
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;
? ? + I + I I. ? ? "
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?
21. Ibid. p.6.
22. See reference (4) p.54.
23. Neal Olman, "A Commercial Process for Enriching
Uranium Poses Weapons Peril." The Wall Street Journal.
June 3, 1970. p.l.
Statistics pertaining to any nation tend to vary
considerably depending upon the bases used as well as the
ground rules employed in certain calculations. In this
section the numbers given were obtained from two sources,
Nicholas Valery, "Land'of the Rising GNP," Science Journal,
May 1970, pp.76-84, Scientific American, 22:3 (March 1970)
pp.31-37.
24 24. Wall Street Journal, 13 June, 1970, p.l.
25. Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener, The Year 2000,
London: The McMillan Company, 1967. p.149. .
26. Ibid, p.30.
:111)
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This is a very interesting analysis by ORD.
Especially interesting to us 1ap41ecords is
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Especially interesting to Us in Records is
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