FIFTEEN-YEAR PLANNING EXERCISE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP71B00822R000100110004-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 28, 2002
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 16, 1965
• Content Type: MF

25X1 A;
~4pproved For F3$~ease 2002/11/13: CIA-RDP71B008220100110004-2
~ 6 JUG 1?05
DD/S&T 25?3-65
1i1;MORANDUM FOR: Assistant Director/Computer Services
Assistant Director/FLINT
Assistant Director/Research & Development
Assistant Director/Scientific Intelligence
Assistant Director/Special Activities
Directar, Foreign Missile & Space Analysis
Center
Chief, Special Projects Staff
SUBJECT: Fifteen-Year Planning Exercise
REFERENCE: "Proposed Outline for Fifteen-Year
Intelligence Plan," TS 192619, 28 May 196 5
Revised 2 June 1965
1. The Executive Director has been designated by the I)CI
as ~~:~ Action Officer responsible for development of the
Fiitc::n-Year Intelligence Plan. The ad hoc Agency group
w"'tici~: has been enraged for the last six weeks in developin
tiie referenced plan met with the Executive Director on
Friday, 11 June to discuss procedures to be used in furthering
t~lis ruatter.
~. It was decided at that meeting that each Directorave
dusibnate three senior officers to serve on a committee wh~:h
will assume major responsibility for further development of
the plan. The Director, BPAM was instructed to create a
secretariat to render necessary staff assistance to the
committee. The goal of the committee is to present the DCI
by 1 September 1965 with a complete fifteen-year plan, thee,
nature of which is such that its existence could be formally
announced to other members of the Intelligence Community az~a
they, then, could proceed to participate in the same exercise.
No target date has been established as yet for completion of
the plan as an Intelligence Community document.
3. The DD S&T re resentatives a ainted to the Agenc~-
committee are nd
Approved For Release 2002/1~~ ~"`"~IA-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
25X1A
 Approved For F~ease 2002/11/13: CIA-RDP71B00822#,~00100110004-2
25X1A In addition to bein DD/SST reprc-
sen?atives o e gency committee, this group will also
fullCtlOI1 as the internal. DD/SST steering group with concomi-~
tart responsibilities to bring into bcin; a fifteen-year
plan for this Directorate. It is envisioned that the 1ltienev
committee will approach the planning exercise from a func-
tional and not an organizational point of view. In pursuit
of this approach it is possible tizat the committee will cal
for the creation of certain sub-groups to study the various
functional problems and present the committee wit r ports
and estimates which can be considered by them, on 25X1A
behalf of the Directorate, is authorized to task o ~icers
within this Directorate to participate in such groups. Frar.2
time to time this Directorate group will brief the DD/S&T
staff meeting on progress being made and problems bein;
encowztered.
4. The Agency group will first address itself to the
referenced Fifteen-Year Intelligence Plan as a possible
format and guide for their submission to the DCI. It is t~~tc~
dosire of the DD/SST that, according to the assignments
given below, the current planning document be studied and ?~lTe
steering group be furnished with the opinion and comments a
the Offices invol a comments should be forwarded
25X1A by 3 June 19G5 t
25X1A 5. There follows a listing of various sections of the
^eferenced plan and an assignment of Office responsibility o
review and forward comments:
~a._ ~tachment A - Assumptions
.~
Director, FMSAC (in his role as
~~ Chairman
GMAIC)
,
v.
~~~`~
,U~. Attachment B - Intelligence Objectives
c. Attachment C - Planning Guides - Section I:
Management, Program Control and Coordination
All Off ices
Chief, SAS
"approved For Release 2002h~1~/~3..:CIA-RDP71B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved For~elease 2002/11/13: CIA-RDP71B008~000100110004-2
d. Planning Guides - Section II: Collection
All Offices, as appropriate to
their responsibilities
o. Planning Guides - Section III: Production
and Analysis
AD/OCS
AD/OSI
Director, FMSAC
f. Planning Guides - Section IV: Operations
AD/OSA
AD/OEL
AD/ORD
g. Planning Guides - Section V: Support
AD/ORD
AD/OEL
AD/OSI
Chief, SPS
h. Appendix A and A-1 - Organization of
Functional Categories
Addressees are solicited tp recommend
any other categorization which appears
to them more suitable for the purpose.
i7.., "y ........j1
1: X4~~: t~.: i."~. ~ .. .. ~...
I tl'r. , I
i. Appendix A-2 - Information Processing and ADP
AD/ OS I
AD/OEL
AD/OCS
Director, FMSAC
j. Appendix A-3 - Intelligence Production
AD/OSI
" Director, FMSAC
k. Appendix A-~ - Sections I, II, III, V, and VI
`Chief, Administrative Staff, DD/S&T
Approved For Release 2Q,~~/11'//13 : CIA-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved Fo release 2002/11/13: CIA-RDP71 60082000100110004-2
1. Appendix A-5, Section IV: Communications
AD/ORD
m. Appendix A-5, Section VII: Security
All Offices
Signod:~
Executive ~ icer
Directorate of
Science and Technology
cc: Dr. Wheelon
X1A
11C' ,
Chief, Administrative Staff
Chief, Action Staff
Approved For Release 2~E11~1~3 : CIA-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
25X' A
25X
 ~~
~~~ ~
Approved ~,r Release~%7~/~3 CIA-RDP71 B02R000'd'b04-2
The statement of Assumptions in Attachment A points the way to
certain substantive intelligence objectives which must receive priority
intelligence effort. Such objectives, while derived generally from
the Assumptions, must also take into account the entire gamut of
national security requirements which intelligence must meet. For
example, although it is assumed that there will be no all-out nuclear
conflict within the next fifteen years, intelligence must continue high
priority efforts to detect any indications that such a conflict might occur.
Intelligence Objectives will provide the basis for projecting
intelligence goals and programs. Objectives will be responded to
directly by many intelligence programs involving collection, analysis
and action, and indirectly by programs involving support functions such
as communications and training. The interrelationship of objectives
and responsive programs is extremely complicated in terms of even a
single objective.. It is therefore important that Intelligence Objectives
deal strictly with substantive considerations and avoid reference to
the particular obligations of one or more intelligence techniques,
methods, or sources.
The various specialized programs responsive to the Intelligence
Objectives should be described in the portions ~of the Fifteen Year Plan
dealing with Long-Range Goals and Program Forecasts.
The Intelligence Objectives which follow are only examples, to
be considered as illustrative of the general scope and subject. matter
involved.
Approved For Release~0~~~1A-RDP71B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved For?B,elease 2002N~/'F3`.`ffP~RDP71 B008~000100110004-2
INTELLIGENCE OBJECTIVES
To provide early warning of intentions of the USSR and Communist China
to attack the US, its possessions overseas, and its allies.
To determine the strategic plane and intentions of nations having a
nuclear strike capability.
To determine Bloc and Free World research, development, production,
and deployment of advanced weapons and weapons systems.
To determine the strategy, intentions, and plans of the Soviet Bloc,
Chinese/Asian satellites, and other countries to engage in general
war.
To determine the solidarity and cohesiveness of the Communist Bloc
and their agreement concerning support and collaboration in the event
of full scale war.
To determine the strength, capability, doctrine, and deployment of
Soviet Bloc and Chinese/Asian satellite general purpose forces.
To determine the military/economic capability of the Soviet Bloc and
Chinese/Asian satellites to support a general war.
To determine the intentions of nations regarding their alignment and
alliances in the event of general war.
To determine the intentions and capabilities of communist countries
to initiate and support insurgency, rebellion, and anti-regime activities
in other countries.
To determine the strength, deployment, capabilities, and tactics of
communist initiated or supported groups engaged in insurgency and
rebellion.
To determine the intentions and capabilities of communist countries
to penetrate, subvert, and dominate other countries by means short
of rebellion and insurgency.
To determine the composition, capabilities, and tactics of communist
parties and international organizations outside the Bloc engaged in
ins urgency.
To determine the policies and reactions of other nations with respect.
to US diplomacy, foreign programs, and activities.
Approved For Release 2002~~~,~~,DP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved Fes' Release 2Q02/'~~IA-RDP71 B0~2R000100110004-2
To determine the strength and cohesiveness of NATO, 5EAT0, etc.
and the intentions of countries to form new blocs and alliances.
To determine the causes and probable results of friction within the
Communist Bloc, the Free World, and between Bloc and Free World
countries.
To determine the internal political stability and military and economic
strength and weaknesses of non-Bloc countries where communism
and other anti- US activities and ideas are. now or may be significant.
Approved For Release 2~ ~1A-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved - Relea~~~Z~i~i4~RDP71 B08r~2R00010011000~-2
f
r'1~ -r~ jv`'~
u
C
Attachment A J"
For the full period (1966-1980):
- No all-out nuclear conflict.
- No universal disarmament with true safeguards.
- Radically new--and increasingly expensive--weapons and
space systems are developed; technological break-through
will occur but no single power will monopolize such
achievements .
- The trend of U. S. economic growth generally continues;
U. S. continues as the leader of the free world.
-Gradual proliferation of advanced weapons--viz. nuclear
missiles; continued testing of these weapons.
- Gradual proliferation of power centers (U. 5. , USSR,
Communist China, Japan, Europe, and perhaps others),
with attendant complications and dangers to the world scene.
-Gradual proliferation of international abrasive, international
crisis, and small war situations (stimulated by communism,
nationalism, racism, and radicalism).
- The industrialized nations grow richer, while most of the
underdeveloped nations' difficulties (population explosion,
economic, and social disarray, etc.) increase.
- U. S. influence and presence recede in various cases in
Europe, Asia, and Africa.
- U. 5. becomes more discriminating in its commitments
abroad; stakes more on certain key allies and neutrals.
For the first five-year period (1966-1970):
-USSR remains the principal threat to U. S. national interests.
-Gommunist China acquires both increased stature and influence
in Asia and the world, and a modest nuclear missile capability.
Approved For Releas~`~1,9~~71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved F~'Releals~~23~ L~i4-~2~P71 B00~2R000100110004-2
- The activity in the U. S. -USSR space race accelerates without
meaningful collaboration.
- "Wars of national liberation, " encouraged or fostered by
Communist states, continue to occur.
- Polycentrism increases among the Communist states, but
does not significantly lessen Communist threats to free
societies.
- NATO shaken to its foundations, if not dissolved; French and
West German assertiveness rise; disunity increases in the
Western Alliance.
- No definitive solutions are achieved with respect to major
international problem areas (such as Ka.ehmir, Arab-Israel,
etc. ).
For the following ten-year period (1971-1980):
- An ambitious, irresponsible, and increasingly powerful
Communist China poses the major threat to peace and to
U. 5. national interests.
- Hostile Soviet competition with the U. S. continues; the USSR
nevertheless periodically explores detente with the U. S.
- Manned space race proceeds; new nations enter the unmanned
space field; hostile competition in space becomes possible.
- Local armed clashes increase in the world.
- Severe economic dislocations occur in individual countries.
-Solutions are reached for some present international crisis
areas, but others arise.
-Growing cooperation between Western and Eastern Europe.
- U. S. interests come under increasing threat from cextain new.
aaurcea (such as Indonesia, France, Germany, Japan).
Approved For Releaf~~q]/1~/E3~~P~'71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved f~ Release/ ,~1~i ~IA-RDP71 B00~2R000100110004-2
1, The course of recent history, the actions of four Presidents,
and prospective international developments all point inescapably to
a continuing key role for intelligence in our Government. It is the
purpose of this Plan to outline and project over the next fifteen years
the intelligence goals and programs of the Intelligence Community in
.order to ready ourselves for the tasks ahead. By so doing in the light
of new or modified functions, new methods, techniques and associated
equipment, and the requirements for personnel and funding, we shall
be prepared to discharge the important responsibilities upon which
our national well-being and even our survival may depend.
2. When completed the Plan will provide a means of expressing
U. S. intelligence goals and programs for the period 1966-1980 and
will furnish the Director of Central Intelligence and USI$ a basis for
reviewing and evaluating:
a. The general direction of the total U. S. intelligence effort
for the next fifteen years, within the context of U. S. national
security interests during this period; and
b. The specific actions which are proposed by USIB agencies
over the next five years to meet expressed goals and the human arxd
material resources required to implement these actions for each
of the first five years.
The authority for developing this plan rests upon the National
Security Act of 1947 as amended, appropriate National Security Council
Intelligence Directives, and the President's letter to the Director of
Central Intelligence of 1965.
Approved For Release 2~/Q gl'A-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved For-Release 200~~/~9~DP71 B00822,~Q00100110004-2
TERMS OF REFERENCE:
The Fifteen-Year Plan would be divided into three five-year
periods with the near term {first five years) spelled out by years;
the entire Plan would be updated annually. National and international
developments and trends in the form of assumptions will be project~yd
over two time periods, 1966-1970 and 19? 1-1980.
ORGANIZA'T'ION OF PLAN:
1. Assumptions
As a first step we look ahead for 15 years to derive a set ci
gross assumptions regarding likely developments in the world situation
which will most significantly affect U. S. security interests and by
extension point up the moat important intelligence tasks. The initial
step would be coordinated by the Board of National Estimates and,
expressed as _assumptiona (Attachment A), will furnish basic guidane~e
to planners in the establishment of goals and programs. The assumption
exercise should be completed no later than 15 July 1965.
2. Intelligence Objectives
Given an agreed set of gross assumptions, the Plan calls
for setting forth a wide and comprehensive range of substantive
intelligence objectives which are translatSble within categories
of the Plan to specific projects and tasks for intelligence organizations.
These substantive intelligence objectives should extend from the
assumptions and reflect the kind and variety of situations which regL.ire
coverage in U. S. intelligence programs for the period. .Examples oC
selected intelligence objectives are set forth by way of illustration at
Attachment B. It would be expected that all intelligence organizations
would contribute to the listing of intelligence objectives and that a
careful coordination of all contributions would be made and reported
to the DCI and USIB (due 1 September 1965).
3. Planning Guides
In addition to the substantive intelligence objectives described
in paragraph 2. above which lead directly to specific projects and to:~k8,
there are also a range of intelligence-related needs and issues which:
require identification for action consideration by the DCI and USIB.
2
Approved For Release 20~/~~ ~iA~RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved Fes- Release'2QII2T'I'IT7~ ~IA-RDP71 B04$~2R000100110004-2
In most instances these intelligence needs and issues will require
careful consideration and coordination within and among the
intelligence organizations, and will include such things as R&D,
intelligence training, tradecraft, methods, systems, and institu-
tional (organizational and functional) matters likely to have a direct
bearing on long-range intelligence requirements. The Planning
Guides at Attachment C provide a sample listing of these needs and
issues. In order that the DCI and USIB have the full benefit of the
thinking of all intelligence organizations on this aspect of the exercise,
subrnisaion of additional planning guides should coincide, timewise,
with the completion of intelligence objectives as outlined in
paragraph 2. above.
4. Goals and Programs
a. The Fifteen-Year plan will be the instrument for describing:
{1) major goals and emphasis in intelligence programming
over the long term (1966-1980), and
(2) specific programs required to meet intelligence
objectives for the next five years (1966-1970) using FY I96b
as the base.
b. The following categories of intelligence functions will be used:
(1)
Intelligence Collection
{2) Information Processing (including ADP)
(3) Intelligence Production
(4) Covert Action
(5) Program Planning and Support
Each of these categories will be sub-divided to accommodate the
many categories of sub-functions of intelligence (see Appendix A).
With respect to the first five-year term, contributors will be
required to describe programs (in format to be designed) and
specific human and material resource requirements related to
these programs.
Approved For Release ~~;l~~i ~IA-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved For Release 20~'
~~l~R-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
fr
,yr
1. A call for Fifteen-Year goals will be issued to each USIB
agency. This call will require the submission of atatements by
category of intelligence function for each of the three five-year
periods (year by year projections are not required in this phase).
See Appendix B for examples.
2. Specific programs will be projected for the first five-
year period. A call for afive-year projection of programs and of
resource requirements for the period 1966-1970 will be issued to each
USIB agency. This call will require the submission of atatements
briefly describing each major program foreseen and the resources
required (e. g. people/money, R&D, capital investment, etc. ).
See Appendix B for examples.
1. During the preparation of the Fifteen-Year Plan and the
specifying of programs and resource requirements, the myriad
of interrelationships involved will obviously require extensive
discussion among a large number of intelligence components
throughout the Community. If a particular program is planned to
meet specified intelligence needs, it may reduce the need for other
programs and/or increase support requirements to satisfy that
specific program. Moreover, being done annually, the proposed
review will permit assessment of the success of intelligence programs
which may make possible certain offsetting activity in other lines.
Likewise successes in meeting certain programs and goals may
generate additional intelligence programs in any one or all .of the
categories. Because of this complex situation, it is obvious that
goals identified by individual components of the Intelligence Community
are always subject to adjustment.
2. The Deputy to the Director for National Intelligence Programs
Evaluation will be assigned by the Director of Central Intelligence the.
responsibility for acting in his behalf in coordinating the Fifteen-Year
Plan and in preparing such specific reviews and analyses as are
appropriate for reporting to U5IB and the DCI.
Approved For Release 20fl21'fTr13-~I~RDP71B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved Forbtelease 20b1tt''IY1~~I~RDP71 B008 2000100110004-2
Attachment A- Assumptions
Attachment B- Intelligence Objectives
Attachment C-. Planning Guides
Appendix A -Organization of Functional Categories
Appendix B -Formats for Long-Range Goals and Program Forecasts
Appendix C -Project Schedule for Fifteen-Year Plan
Approved For Release ~~~'IR~' ~'A-RDP71 B00822R000100110004-2
 Approved F~'Release ZOOZ/'I''ITT3"CIA-RDP71 B00~2R000100110004-2
SAMPLE Attachment C
PLANNING GUIDES
The following is an attempt to describe briefly the most important,
existing and probable future problems facing the U. S, intelligence effart.
The entries on the list are necessarily general; other considerations
and problems essential to an effective long-term intelligence system.
may have been overlooked. Each contributor to the Fifteen-Year Pla3~
should therefore consider this listing as only general guidance to his
development of goals and programs.
agencies should give consideration to the following needs:
In the consideration of long-range intelligence goals and in the
preparation of programs over the next five-year period, U. S. ntellig