Transmittal of Paper on Impact of the Tibetan Campaign on the Economy of Communist China

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70T00666R000100100020-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: February 1, 1960
• Content Type: MF

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d of 19600 ilit7 ac tivity.
resent be tereued by. :WO percen
the roads available for the suiply
military capicit,t to supply the at=
however, a modest airlift of !applies is undertaken,
eyed can be supplied and there will be SUfficient
by road and by airlift to supply an additional
the currently available roads and au airlift with
Communist military air transports, the -arinum tonnase
to the military forces in Tibet is 111/3 tons
tly by the military and civilian electors
the Tibet carupaiip ar4 must be
and petroleua. The onkv sisnifi-
Tibet is harem.
far the ?Lbd caspaisn umber
and civilian truck parts in
40500i additional trunks so
t capacity. The increased require-
about three months' output of the
reqPIreeleat would be 3.7
trunks in China.
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at1abtUtr 4 .petrolena .praucts-... The :moat- critical ktem. .1440 the-
exPealle4 .4004441.021- VIII be WriatiOn 44tigtO1triel "Mt rettaretift#t for. uhich
.'w.na14 increase to 17 'Pt:reel:Vt of the 1960 total trial:1014f, of aviation
- .
Una oeater economic effort is required to support troops in Tibet
than raubi be require& to support the same troops in most other areas of
China, Theme additional econuwic efforts - including taile sto4P4lingot
swpues . reduce the number 4f trteks, the amount of food* petroleum and
other items available ter use elseshere or fOr export, The reNpireme;ts
are ameLl borreveri in terms of the total smkr position in Chine. It
must be (4ncludeal thorefore that the current a4poteutial militia/7
activitr in Tibet has and poLurtially sill have only a modest if not
almost negligible impact oZt the economy of Communist China.
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TIBET REGION
fERRAIN AND TRANSPORTATION
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'Tkrocps in 'Tibet
in Tibet
Chieese Communist Combat terms in the Tibet Military nezion are
premeatly divided into two eajor groups. One groep is cencentreted in the
general vicinity of Lhasa amd the other in the area ereona Ct'sndetu in
eastern Tibet. The Chinese have been feroe& to divide their forces in
this manner becauee the rose between Chlangete end Lhasa has 'been closed
by a combinatioa of difficult terrain, enfaverable climate, end. rebel
activity.
1.
? A
Cat mit* in the Lhasa area, are supplied over the Golsee
these section of the Teinghai-Tibet highwey. This 1,300 mile road origin
ate* at two points - to the east at T4neeehoa ani to the north (across the
Teeidea Basin) at esieetung - a transfer point an the Treas-Sinkisag
Railtexel liue. The trenches from the north, end east meet at Golmo on the
southern edge of the Tsaidam Blain. Although both routes leading into
Oolmo cen be utilized tor logistic purposes, the branch ramming north to
Hata-tungappesav at, present to be the male supply route for the Lhasa,
area.
The baste capacity of the Heieetung ?elm? ehase route is
estimated at 3Z trucks per beer in each direction or 960 tans each way
per 10-hoer day. Using only the treasportvehIcles caseate- to the infantry,
artillery, and motor transport units in the area the Chinese Communists
could, deliver approximately 520 tons of all classes of military supplies
to Lhasa. The difference between total tonneee and tonnage 4elivere&
tepreeento fuel consumed. The dial,' =May requirements or units
dependent on the Heieetung,- Golmo - Lhasa route are apprutimately 60
tons per 15,000 maa, or a total of $63 tons per day. Thus, there is en
unused capacity of 152 tons, enough to support en additional 38,000 in
under assumed present daily requirements.
2. Supply f,Troeys over he O7epboae7Tinet ffighway
Chimes Communist ceebet units in the Chsamg-tu urea are
supplied over the Oteeb4en-Tibet higturay. True Ova eastern aaa of the
road attblesgete, in Szeeheen province, supplies must be trucked, about
700 miles toChiangete or about 500 :Wes to Minehing. lbs basic capacity
of the Chiengetu Chteng-te section of the route is estimate& at about
half the capacity of the Usia-tumg Golmo Lhasa route, or 16 trucks
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per hour In each directiaa Axe * total of WO Ursa eacb vsxy per 10-hour
4111w. in total, abtaut 3O toss a diJt.z supplies could be delivered
issui to civitop.tu ant rochtago the proportion going to each, destination
depanding ott the Anitrible ot troopa as* ems. The daily supply mare-
swats Qt the troops pansratlyi the Qaissisit-tu Ninehing ares total about
140 Vas par day,. Ismailia& ea uanamed rtaad capacity of no tows. This
would he emu* to sort *a a/tit:Lima 5,2,1X0 MAO tinder ealitirle4 present
daily tategdp repalreeents. IA tot, the Telashai-Tibet and the Szechwan-
Met roads could stopert over 21*/*000 wan in Ubetk if their daily require-
ment is calculated at 60 teas per day per /50000 mem.
3.
*
Chinenee owavetst cookat And.ta ata teed in the. Oar** area. are
temdled over the ainkissup,Tibet hi.stasay. troak the neatest treespart
center at Sr, co.shW supplies are treated about 250 miles south
to Earghalik (chleafs,) Aga charecterised by the Coarsaists as the
acetates% ternitel at the road. Prost IttsVolilt sundiee zruct aoved
0014 iv =Mks south to Oen*. The cepacity of the re..401, restricted
by the Nitribalik to alert* POrta*4104 Jr* estimated to be 3 trucks par tour
in mesh 4131atatiOay ta* a Uttial 90 Una WWI say per 10,..hcar day. la
total alas* 50- than of adlitely aggiaes could be delivered daily to
tiartok. Ilse daily supply reqiiirerseata of the 1,6i00 troops presently in
the *art* eras total edusit. 6.4 Was ger dier * rata ceruld steady 43,6
tans per dav in exalts* of the present troop rogairesent.tUmacuat
wouldbe aufflolent to support in addl. 1.14003 mat under present
esedittorus. However* this mai is; probably suotorehle .stly tor *bunt
brat tte year. /tie ausber of trews leach could be eatate= in the
area Ita.a osatained length of time alatit thus he Stamm tukif the flaurea
quoted or "about 60000 eiri.
If it is ausainsed that Us tosster and 1ceattos of troopo in Tibet
ria statteo but that 1:heir daily weedy requizeuent is incresvsed by
peressat bemuse a iseresuaat astion asaisset the Tibet= rebels" the
easehility of the reads ofervisal ttse area would set be sufficient f*::ir
aanabr Panitatate ate 4111% airlift winila have to be used. if the daily
supply ?reottrialent of the troops inthe 'awes area were increfund to 736
t(824 Pre fag; , 50) tart* =WA be 08.1.tieti te, itetakti USItta the Tainakei-
Welt latotway axed 216 teas byairlift1 art eddittortal 64 tons per
day coati be sruntlied by air if the qesation wine kliairrta OtIrair fat
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extended eeriod or time. IS atteesaary, some aircraft could be diverted
to move tbis *want of tonaege t.?-Aller airfields ia Met en increase
in the suppXy requirement of troops in the Chiang-tu - nearing area to 280
tons per agy touldhe haadled oa the Vsechame-Tibet highwey, with about
70 tons to 49are. Ho airlift would be reqeired. Ia the Gartok area an
increase in the supply' requirement to 13 tons per day would uot tax the
etkOshialtY ot the diakianwTibet blahvgy over which an, additioaal 3? tons
iter 'maid be delivered duriag that period of the year in which the
road is opereble.
The Chinese COmmnntat Air Force is estimatet to him 3e-46ts
100 Li-b,35 11-14e) 5 11-12i 4 11-1% Nada umber of ',Anther air4raft
at prearembleh might be sultLle for forwari area eperetiaa and airdrops.
In 4441tire6 an estimated 20 T0-4 bomber aircraft owed by China 41no have
been eouverted to transport use. The lift capacity of the aircraft varies,
of tours*, with the distance reqatred to be flown. Airfield/A at Chieng-tu?
Haltnim46 Laneobou and Si= are the ones most lttelt to be ueed for an
airlift eparatioa Leto Tibet. rwe avataee distance fras these fieles to
the field for Lhasa is about 7U0 aautical miles (1,450 kilemeters), or
about 10560 nautical ilee for the rouad trip.
If the entire preteat past of traaaport aircraft iu the Chinese
Ceeesuniat Air roma is treated ea a uait0 its lift capability, at cue trip
per aircraft, to Tibet is approntlmatelY 780 abort toes for the piston engine
aircraft which consume aviation gaeoline and 03 ehort tons for the four
IL0;18e which conaume beroseaa. If au airlift operation 1-evolving all
existing military transport in the Chlaese Air /ores is mounted, er4 each
aircraft aperatee 15 tiaee per month e tote' of 11,700 short tone of
supplies could be moved to Tibet per month or an average of 390 abort tons
per *why the piston engine transports and 900 ahort tons per warth or
30 short tons average per day by the 110.18's for a total ot 12,600 short
tons per month or 420 ohart tons per average day.
Tbe above estimated careeltr oParation would be difficult to notAxitain
over an extended period of time, because at ealetenance and requirements for
mattimrytegmeport airgraft elsewhere in China. Ahreover,, rround aupport
eeniaaent and supplies would eiso have to be transported. to Tibet la order
to sustain the airlift,. Therefore it is mare reasonable t, assume that
each at the treasaert aircraft woutiaot be used more often then every third
day or tea times per maath. If this la the case, a total oft' Totioo short
tons of supplies could be staved to Tibet per mama. or a6o short tons per
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day' by the *toe .- ,,, .' I ta and 600 Short tons per =nth or 20
short ?tons .. ?? , for a total of 80400 Short tons per
month or :Ai short toes per ?r. It Should be understood that the USSR
now has a sestestiel reserve park of piston, eagiee aircraft a part of
Ades they el .:... be willing, it not anxious, to 0SPort to Chios,.
IV*
t4 C
APProXicateli 60800 trucks ?re seeded to suPPIY troolils in
Tibet undw present conditioes. Estimated trunk requirements tor the three
itt $41POly routes are?: (1) Taieghei-Tibet road . 547170 (2) Szechwan-
Tibet road. - 100520 end (3) glnklano-Tibet road - 72. If the =miler of
military troops in Tibet were imeremeed to the maximum number whicb. could
ekelPorted the existing reeds, Shout 110300 trunks would be required.
Of this total 40070 veuld, be 411144..orat oe. the Talashai-libet . 2,640 on
the aseelpifei-Tibet road, and, about 600 oe the Oinkiang.iTibet roe/. At the
end of 19,9 there were probahly more than 2400000 trucks in Communist China.,
-*beat tKlueliv, divided into elIitery sad civilise truck Parks.
It is estimated that more thee 11000 military trucks (the number
needed to operate the three roads at maxixass cepSbilities) are evailible in
the three military' regions of Tibet, Lasomdhou (10masu? Tuindhai, Shensi)
sot ALWasseg. In addition, there are ae unknown ember of trucks assigned.
to quasi-militery units, particularly ia Sintleingi ehich 0,1,00 to, oloo
available it the Chisel* Communists mere willing to impair the progress
on economic projects which these trunks support.
The trucks organic to intaatx9 regimental combat teams and other
aissea-leaeous units ere PrObeklY enSeged to the extent possible over the
peer roads In local supply operations end Shifting troops from place to
place ia reopens* to local tectleal situations. It' these trunk's were
mode available in isey great =where or a long distaace eppply isperation0
the sebilitY of the units to which thel are oorse117 assigned votad be
conaiderably curtailed. The number of Ailitary trunk la the immediate
area that could be made available without impairing other miiitarr needs,
tgomeatrm, wu.14 be only those assigned to motor traasport =its. It is
wowed that there are currently encesi.h- motor traesport regiment trueks
avellable to provide the eecessary iong-distance logistic support under
prevent assumet supply requirements.
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The =neve People s Army nes vault trtmke than. It has priority
needs for trucks elsewhere in Chine, even reeogniting such priority areas
as the PUkten. Coastal/epee and the Amehuria-North rorea border. If
additional forces were depaoyed ia 'abet, it is believed they would not
only bring thole* ?ramie actor treeeeert with them but alao vox/Ube
socougentedbi independeet motor traneport units. It is therefore coecluded
that bralrertfizig trucks from eormal exertsen duties in the eastern and
centre' parts or the couatry, sufficient additional truela could be eade
available from the eilibury park to operate the three mule at /axiom
capabilitiee.
At least /5,000 civiliee trucks are emeleyed for econemie acti.
vitias in the provinces of Sheeet, Rinkfaeg? end Teivehoi. Truck trans-
Portetion i* lePorteet to the economic activities of the provinces
because or the *became of other forms of modern traaeport and the long-
distances elemidetehfreightmuot be hauled. These civilise trucko could
be divested froe their eurreet use oaly if the Chinese Comouniste were
villing to reduce the =ale of ecoaomic ectivity. If civilise trirAs were
used in Tibet, they vou)d likelyte dram from eaatern eerttoes of the
eowetri where primitive trenaport eould be used to compensate part.ially
for them. Vie do out believe, brnileVert that civilian trueka vou1d. be
diverted to *sweat ailitsey action, in Tibet.
lbw, We beliisve that the Chinese Commutate ere capable of
providiug the Additional 4,500 trtmks necessary to utilize the the...4e
logistic roads. into Tibet to ral **Debilities. Theme trucks would,
probsiel,y be setae available free the Ailitaxy ?wk. It, however, the
trucks were drawe frem the civilian perk, they would probably come free
the eastern portions of China. he 6,600 truck& presently emehei vould
be *beet 3e4Pereect of the total of ?V00,000 trucks (military and. civilian
in Communist Chime The 111300 ttscha necessary to operate the three
logistic routes at =edema ovabilite, would. be about 5.7 percent of the
total Obtuse tete* pasts or between end 12 eereent of the military
tract perk. The difAireme betweea the umber of trucks currently eoployed
and the mayhem amber AIWA could he empleyed (4,500 trucke, is the
eUutvaleet of about 3 actable output fres the Chinese Comartist truck
industry.
a.
At prevent, the military forces in Tibet are caestrangDetroieum
at annual rate ?loosely 2005000 toeo. If total unitary supply requirements
N.
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were doubled, resulting iheilmeitY or neor esT"itY use tbs rceds
end in a supplementery eirlift, the itUtary forces VOU.ld consi me. petroleum
at mammal rate of nesrly 390/000 tons.
Total availability of petroleum products in Coemunist China, from
domestic production and imports, VU4 7.3 million tons in 1959. The 1960
figure will prObably be about 8.8 million tons. Atpresent the military
reqPiremeet for petroleum in Tibet en an annual basis le about eeual to
2.7 Pereeat of national availability in 1959. Lf tot;./ seeple
reqwirementm were doubled? the aammil military reqpirement for petroleum
in Tibet voeld be eqpal to about ti.k permit ofeatioeal availability in
1960. Or the 7.3 million tons available in 1959 about f17,000 tons were
aviation /eel, ee the Tibet veratila is inereaoed to the extent that
aircraft are tieed to eupplement road transport, fuel requiremente for
operations of the transport aircraft -teould be $(.440 102,000 tons. This
tonnage would represent 17 percent of the aviation fuel Available in 1960
asswatag that 1960 imparts are about equal to those of 1959. The actual
eteauseraity eta/tattoo, fuel iu 1960, hoeever, will depend Aeon the
demand for it as it is nearly all imported.
It is believ!ed. that petrolenee for Tibet is *Applied from the-
refineriee at YUemen? Lenechou, and. talgehu in the Udder, resift. In
1959 these three refineries predeced 7624= tens or gasoline ant diesel
fuel. The entiatateanattery requirenents for Tibet were about 24;percent
of this production.
C. Fond
populatiom of Tibet vac 1.27 million aecordiug to the latest
Communist Minese statement. Tibet has traditionally proeueed almost all
the tow, end clotting reggireeeAto of the Tibetan people. Same of the
ropulatiau areChinese however, and. more Chinese workers ham been brought
in for the borax and Aher indeustr!bta and to construct *Ad repair roads.
Food. reqvirement for the troops stationed in Tibet is about 78,000 tons
per Ivor. At the outside the present amouet of food needed from the
Chinese economy to import the Chlneee in Tibet etv be as much as 200,000
tons per jeer. This is al:v.1;140U proportion of the 61 million toms of
Vein that the Chinese government calleeted during 1959 for distribution
to the urban ViVtaation to the eilitary, for exportand for redigdatbution
to rural sleets. 2ven if the food. reqtheents for the Chinese eivilians
in Tibet are doubled.? total imports of food. into Tibet weal not exceed
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