CIA/ORR CONTRIBUTION TO JOINT STATE/DEFENSE STUDY GROUP.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70S00385R000100260018-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2002
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: May 17, 1967
• Content Type: MF

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U . CIA/0 C stri Ztiou to Joint atatm/Dei-A-a
study OraW.
I. U I indicated at ' reeesast- Meeti GE is reparad to
support t1w Study Group by rnakiz available to it all the
pt~r,LI,4--at t>sabterial already p pa'e wvi by draftint, additional
vo sas~.s ou the s itic questions to which the Group is ca.dreu&-
. We have already seat you t~ existing ataseteria.:.. t
be co .iec d quickly. r' a di tionai material tt3a., seem
. wil be seat Withe a .'e- da; a .
capability for prapariu , ae- material, ?i.6 ial :SCI
by ,rx 9 On pera 3 1, inc. uli paper s re-
z: t. by -h White House ems. U X?G on the saw o ra a.ie
area. are ver, ~whe questic:a x lied by the Grcj a:i ao -east
we LiOtati z~ :,yotie could do tea Justice in t sa = .. aad aie have never had occasion to t so t e, t d a
s.cok a k.i area o to .o aaatch O. zieceasa~?y as iysLS. W;; are
in a positic-a; hooever, ro pa :jar an essay on aera -coICic
ire ,.: air prospects in t3 =a Bch Vouid at a: w ~o{ h 1
au t oL h.~ .; ies i as t is as it ;.
This , :r mod. be uaiaiy couce:nod 4k.t eeo
ta'J s.a t } C.x Y here poesib in i.uduatry and a ;;:riea sure. Past
via ea - wou::d b e a x analyzed. In this aria.x.
avai b e i.zaot i iou on the i tex tas of Berth ane use of
< ??ou a Ru Id b . coz ide red. Pros c :aa for grourth i u the ne. c
a Aar x:uu..d be discussed and there youth be a raer I awl brief
ttcsra ai : > a ~zz of ~rawth possibilities for a lo3 r pe ?i ..
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p~ of , eas which are of c a erab a interea t la -wives
as v .! as mein .important deteraiQafxt$ Of ecOacmic i-o ' could
'bz' 4 een t,rt:icusaA.r attention. Aecordla6 y, the r wOUld
discuss:
a.
Treads in a prospects for for*iLga aid
m
with Cow
cam,:. s in forei. t.r
economic
it.
Military expe
d. Prospects for iat
cooperation.
.aa one of obtaining auough capi .
and, kcaoit-h0 to use well-* stab! is d
e . pmspec is for sad e - fec is of teebaoioIica.
cb*- a -- we doubt this point deserves
the p is the Group is &.iv ing it; afs
we see it the problem is less one of
aeluiria3c, ex - p ItIy a v ed. ? ht o O /
6. te:;E ' l not be able
Lee of the a: ea. These are
.ed is aot available. In a:
oil countries vili be e. ted, but gwwraI4 i:a~ e sir
11
be on key countries. M3e amen is so diverse, th:, v a :isticaa
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so uneven aed economic pertor ce so inf3utWed by li ica
cievelop ea1t that t i . do are exctrewl hazardous y ~1 q
iflesq yut'?~?yf iR +.ia+~? .lWMis is all the more true or s tsi ate
about tom? (;.Cure and do not eft to p artda a set Of pro-
}ec wi: or- predictions. The look at t future would be is tensied
aaia y .o c a.'i#',' problem and p sib iit.ies.
T. We hope to have a draft of this ata r available by aid-J
but & e ...4 you any Useful parts as 0004 as they an"r c Piet i.
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9 May 1967
TO Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT: Special State Defense Study Group
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1. An the Study in progressing, the Study Group will
find itself in need of constant readjustment to meet the
spirit, rasher than the letter, of the Terms of Reference,
the guiding document of the effort. There is rather a lot
of thinking; dedicated to economieo-technological trends
with the implication that some miracle in the advanced
techniques will so alter the complexion of the area, as
to require a radically different approach to its problems.
2. Much thought is being given to nuclear development
for power and industrial development. Prospects of improved
methods of desaiii*ization are playing an important part
in assumption that non-arable lands can be converted to
useful agricultural use. The thought obviously runs through
that technology will somehow solve political problems.
3. While I don't totally disagree with the thesis, I
find the emphasis upon scientific approach to modernization,
agronomy, power and irrigation somewhat out of proportion,
at the least, for the period under study.
4. i trust that subsequent discussions will underscore
a relative implausibility of vast multi-national nuclear
power planets, and vast irrigation projects where political
incompatibility is involved, or else costs are economically
prohibitive.
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5. Another item of importance. As we stand today,
the Arab--Ie.raeli dispute is not likely to be a part of
the Study. I was advised of this informally, when I
alluded to the Arab-Israeli problem as one of the critical
situations in the area. I was told that the magnitude of
the problem precluded its inclusion in the Study. I was
told that the decision was made before I joined the Group.
The Arab-Issraeli Dispute is not included in the Study
outline, although I propose to deal with it under the
heading of "Regional Conflicts and Issues".
6. This memo is written to keep you "au courrant"
of the undercurrents within the Group.
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2. May 1967
SUBJECT: Meeting with Members of Holmes Working Group
Voted By Df ?~
1. OCI, and myself met for about an hour
on 1 May with members of Ambassador Holmes' Joint State/Defense
Working Group on the Near East, North Africa, and the Horn. T',,
meeting was called at uggestion to discuss the
Working Group's needs for economic intelligence and CIA's abiliuy
to satisfy these needs.
2. The discussion was fairly general and no firm commit-
ments were made, pending the. forthcoming meeting between the
DD/I and Ambassador Holmes. I did, however, indicate in general
terms what kind of contribution we might be able to provide.
3. The Working Group does not expect elaborate numerical
projections ofeconomic activity. They apparently will be
satisfied with a discussion of the main aspects of economic growth
in the countries of the area, including our best estimates of
developments in the next 5 years. A longer time prospective
should be considered only when we can discern some pretty clear
trends. The discussion should touch on all the countries and
take up groups of countries where appropriate, but it is under-
stood that very little will be said on some of the countries.
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4. and I emphasized the strong influence of politics 25X1A
on the economic development of the area and the sometimes great
gap between lotential and actual rates of economic growth. The
'Group apparently appreciates that the importance of politics
precludes firm economic projections.
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5. I indicated that we would -t -show what influence
politically-inspired policies have= on the economies of the
area and how dependent future grog K night be on changes in
these policies.
6. I pointed out that technological change is unlikely to
be given much weight in the economic paper. This apparently is
alb. right with the Group. Wha Ambassador Holmes seems to have
in mind is to examine technology as a possible basis for US
diplomatic initiative rather than as a major influence on the
economies in the relevant time span.
7. In general, the Group seems to know very little about
the area and to have only the vaguest notion of its objectives.
It apparently is willing to accept whatever we provide so long
as the contribution is directed at broad trends which would be
of possible importance to US policy.
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SUBJECT: CPR Contribution to I pris Study Group
1. OE R is prepared to support the Holmes Study Group by
making available to it all the pertinent material already p.'+epared.
and by dyaf ti.nd additional comments on the specific que:s foss to
which the Group is addressing itself.
2. 11'aare exists a voiu tinou, body of information on a ?re:ai:
many aspec s of the economies covered by the Holmes Group. Avail-
able studies cover Communist aid to these countries is considerably
detail. There are several substantial reports on economic treads
and problems in the UAR. The iereb, South Arabia, Libya, the
Eas tern Arab States, the Persian Gulf, and the Horn of Africa were
taken up in contributions to National Intelligence Estimates.
The recent Irai oil crisis, drou st in the Maghreb, and economic
prospects for. South Arabia are analyzed in recent OR1 reports.
Textual and statistical Liforaetion on many countries in the
areas was prepared by this Office for briefing purposes. Finally,
the General Burvey sections of the NIS, which are prepared by
this Office, contain a great deal of basic information on most
countries of the area.
3. OiUY's capability for preparing additional material is
limit.ed by many competing demands on personnel, including papers
requested by the White house and the IRG on the same geographic
area. Moreover, the c uestions raised by the Holmes Group are so
vast that :.ae doubt anyone could do them justice in anythinz like
the time allowed and we have never had occasion to take so broad
a look at the area or to do much of the necessary analysis. Vie
are in a position, however, to prepare an essay on general economic
trends and p.?ospec tts in ,.he area which would at least couch upon
most of the