DRAFT OF HOLMES STUDY GROUP 'A RECOMMENDED STRATEGY'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70S00385R000100260013-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2002
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: July 17, 1967
• Content Type: MF

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17 July 1967
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM
SUBJECT Draft of Holmes Study Group
"A Recommended Strategy"
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1. The attached document is a draft which Ambassador
Holmes hopes will be approved en toto. If that is the
case it will be distributed as--f-he'' 'niched study.
2. Thi; is an obvious attempt to carry out a fait
accompli.
3. The CIA representative on the working group has
kept us as informed as possible on the progress of the
group. There has been a persistent refusal by the group's
leadership to allow this docent to be checked out in
draft, according to There were always 25X1A
vague excusev why drafts could not be released.
4. The draft was rushed to a finish last Friday,
done over on Saturday, and published on Sunday.
5. I understand that Gen. Lemnitzer has voiced
certain objections to some of the NATO aspects. Also,
certain bureaus in the State Department have criticisms
of certain aspects.
6. Holn:es made a trip to Europe to show a first
draft of the "Strategy" section to the Ambassadors in
London and Paris, and to Gen. Lemnitzer of NATO. According
to Holmes, they were highly satisfied with this draft.
Certain of the military aspects were informally checked
out with DIA and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Approved F
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7. Certain sections of the study should be vetted
by the pertinent components of CIA, especially "Soviet
Interests, Objectives and Patterns of Activity," "US
Interests," "Strategy," and "Policy Initiatives." The
section "Perspective for Regional Economic Development"---
a dream world projection which takes no account of politi-
cal vs econoiiic realities--has serious statistical flaws,
according to OER. The section of Communist China has
never been near interested components of the DDI.
8. It should be noted that the study is "Prepared
by the Special State-Defense Study Group," although the
understanding early in the game was that CIA was to be
an equal partner.
9. It is recommended that either the study be given
a thorough perusal by interested CIA components and their
views be taken into account or that CIA formally decline
to be associated with the study.
10. In any case, Director should respond telephonically
to Holmes that we have no objection to the study being dis-
seminated as a draft, but that we will need time to determine
whether ana-to what extent CIA can approve this draft.
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1. I doubt that we can say much on the technical feasibility
of economic effects of these schemes, although we will check the data.
2. The leper, if published, should be clearly prefaced by a
statement indicating that it deals with technical possibilities, since
it abstracts completely from political realities.
3. 1 have serious reservations as to the appropriateness of
policy recoum ndatioas based on this kind of analysis.
4. More comments may follow after
completes its review.
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DATE: 18 July 1967
:!#view of Am-nay. G for ?ol ies' Project
review of An e_. G, Technology, for the Holmes
project has been prepared by
and is attached 25X1
horewi.th. We propose to deliver one copy informally
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._% achment
sated above
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Review of A PERSPECTIVE FOR MID-EAST ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
The manuser.pt, Annex G, :LF'ersccti-dot" M~r~rkast rce,?i
Development Based on the Application of Modern Resources Development
Methods and Technology has been reviewed by analysts
The consensus is that the paper, to be usable, requires extensive
revision.
Several general criticisms seem pertinent. Although the
projects suggested may very well be feasible technically, no attempt
appears to have been made to assess their practicality in view of
the existing political climate and financial requirements. As a
result, the major concepts in the paper seem far-fetched with little
real possibility for accomplishment. At the very least, the paper
should contain a preface clearly stating and recognizing practical
limitations. In view of the narrow focus of the paper and the lack
of consideration of many relevant factors, therefore, we question
the usefulness of the recommendations, particularly those on pages
18 and 19. In addition, the compilation of statistical economic
data and the presentation of economic profiles do not seem.pertinent
to the paper. In any case, the information in Appendix A and B
generally fails to state the year concerned, is not up-to-date, and
contains numerous errors. Almost every figure should be changed.
Detailed changes also should be made in the text. Some specific
examples are as follows:
Page 1, line 11. Underemployment, not unemployment, is
characteristic of the agricultural sector of these economies.
Page 2, line 7. Egypt, Israel, and Lebanon should be
added as exceptions.
Page 3, line 28. The "annual gain" would merely be a
measure of the financing of Tunisia's trade deficit by Libya.
Libya's economy is not basically agricultural. Agriculture con-
tributes less than 10 percent of GNP, and the countryside rapidly
is being depopulated. See page 4, line 3.
Page 5, lines 20-24. The need is for diversification of
crop culture from basic subsistence crops to high value crops for
export markets, e.g., fresh fruits, fancy vegetables. In both
countries, the needs of rapidly rising populations can better be
met by foreign trade than by an attempt at self-sufficiency in
food production.
ISIECREt
GROUP 1
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da;;rtr.die; and
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Page 7, lines 14 and 16. Yemen should be listed (with
Lebanon) as an exception to the arid lands.
Fame 7, line 18, Much of Iran outs de the Persian G .i#
coastal region also is desert.
Page 7, lines 18 and 19. Sentence should read -- Until
the discovery of vast quantities of oil in Iran and thence in the
Arabian side of the Persian Gulf, this huge ---.
Page 7, last 2 lines. Food imports of Syria and Iraq
are relatively small. Some of the countries also exchange other
agricultural commodities, e.g., cotton, for food.
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x ue:. ~,
at,
12 July 1967
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Hat s Study, Lnnex F, Petro1e in Middle East and Africa,
draft, 29 July 1967 (sic 5.
1. Subject Annex covers a wide vvXjWW of considerations not all
of which fell .tithin the principal responsibilities I I The
extent to which the draft Annex F could be salvaged, or would require
revision, depends on the principal thrust and focus of the Holmes
Study, as yet not clear
2. The following preliminary comments defer to the corresponding
section of subject draft, and ass a that the contents of the Am,
as presently constituted, are appropriate to the Holmes Study.
a. Section I tbrough VI. We believe these sections should
be recast. L
timing d i(3 not
obligations
could do this in about two to four weeks if the
nflict with other planned or unforeseen emergency
Sections VII threw h X. The subjects of these sections
involve rrxlitic:l and economic considerations and speculation in which
in on have primary interest and
responsibility. Thus, others than
(or in coordination with
ought properly consent on these sections.
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revision 25X1
of the seetiot, cited in 2a, abr .
II
it. Section XII. This probably should be recast grad could
in coordination vith the appropriate personnel in
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501o-f01
UNITED STATES GOVE
Memorandum
TO
THRU
,FROM
SUBJECT: Review of A Recommended American Strategy
DATE: 24 July 1967
A review of Volumes I and II, A Recommended American
Strate , is attached. The reviewed volumes were prepared
by the Special State - Defense Study Group.
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Attachment:
As ;stated above
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Comments on Report of The Special
State - Defense Study Group
A review of Volumes I and II, A Recommended American Strategy -
Near East, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa, reveals no major
problems concerning economic data or the role of economic assistance
as an instrument of Soviet policy in the Middle East. Naturally,
some small differences as to specific numbers exist, but these are
not considered significant or misleading. Although some of the
details do not coincide exactly with our views and our emphasis
might be somewhat different in some instances, these differences
do not affect the validity of the conclusions contained in the
report. Moreover, we feel that, the report effectively presents
Soviet strategy in this area of penetration, both in terms of its
rationale and its implementation.
In general much of the suggested economic strategy is felt to
have relatively little chance of success because of the political
and social realities in the countries involved.
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