A REGIONAL STUDY OF AGRICULTURE IN COMMUNIST CHINA, 1957-66

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70S00385R000100250018-5
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• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 18
• Content Type: STUDY

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A Net Lor..al Study of A ;ricul gore in
Co: munist China, 1957-66
Foreword
Kwangtung Province was chosen for this regional agricultural
study primarily because it is the province for which the most detailed
info=&ation is available. Kiangtung is typical of the areas that
cultivate rice in South China, but is not representative of the wheat
areas of North China, Agriculture in this province is highly intensive
and has had a reasonably high priority in the allocation of agricultural
investment.
A comprehensive regional, study of China is difficult because data
are not reported Dn a provincial basis.
The
present report-, re-?resents a iirs cut at a regional analysis and does
not treat thoroughly all aspects of agriculture in Ktrangtung.
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1. Agricultural Production
Kvangtung Province, a major agricultural area, has more than 3
million hectares under cultivation and, counting double cropping, more
than 6 million hesctarea so m to crops. In not ral years K ;angtung is
self -sufficient In -rice, but in poor years, imports rice from neighboring
provinces. Sweet potatoes are the main supplement to rice, and only
small amounts of wheat and miscellaneous grains are produced. More than
one-third of the sugar consumed in China is produced from cane growm in
Kw,ngtuvg. The -.production of vegetables, fruit, poultry, and meat is
sufficient to meet local needs, and small amounts are exported daily to
Hong Kong. `
The total c?il.tiva.ted area in Kwrangtung was about 15 percent lower
in 1966 than in1957. We do not know the reasons for this decline, but
it was almost certainly caused in part by construction of roads and new
irrigation proje.ts. (See Table 1). The area sown to rice has declined
by nearly one'million hectares since 1957, but rice yields have increased
substantially because of (a) the substitution of other crops for low-
yielding upland :^ice, (b) the increased application of chemical fertilizer,
(c) the increased use of green manure crops as fertilizer, and (d) improve-
ments to paddy fields, including rrmechanieat purips and better irrigation.
During. 1960-66, the area sowrn to sweet potatoes on collective fields
declined steadily as production of potatoes on private plots increased.
In the case of sugar cane, the sowm area in 1965-66 was more than twice
the low point of 1962.
The product:Lon of rice, the major crop in Kwangtung, was about 20
percent lower in 1961 than in 1957, a drop caused primarily by poor
weather. (See Table 2). The output of rice had recovered fully by
1963 and totaled over 10 million tons annually through 1966. The pro-
duction. of raw sugar fell by more than 50 percent during 1960-62, as
land was diverted to other foods, and did not return to its 1957 level
until 1965. The sweet potato crop in 1961 was barely half that of 1957,
but a combination of private and 'collective cultivation had restored
production to normal by 1965. The production of subsidiary foods, such
as vegetables, fruit, meat, poultry and eggs, increased substantially
when private plo~,s were reinstituted in 1961 and has remained at a high
level.
2. Private Plo";s
Private plo';s account for about 7 percent of the cultivated area of
Kwan;tung, about the same as for South China, but only 4 percent of the
cultivated arep?of North China. The peasants may produce vegetables and
tubers and raise poultry and pigs, although the production of grain is
forbidden. The fiverage size of a plot for a family of five is about
7,,0()0 square feet, or one-sixth of an acre,
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Estimated Use of Cultivated Land in Kwangtung Province
19
D24
6
1957
1958
1.9
1960
1961
1262
126
196
l
1966
Cultivated area
3860
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3600
3333
3300
3287
Acreage of rice paddies
2933
2867
9000
940:1
2200
2333
Acreage of dry fields
927
1600
1333
1100
954
Sown area (including double cropping)
6050
6667
7642
Green manure crops
233
64
39
351
128
160
400
667
Acreage of crops
5817
7291
Grain
5585
6467
6067
6694
6500
6502
6567
lice
4687
5118
4615
5104
'4847
4534
4341
4300
4000
3986
3793
3867
4066
3867
Wheat
93
120
1-33
315
-239
267
208
200
183
80
60
227
200
Miscellaneous grains
101
316
432
364
148
534
667
734
Tubers
724
913
887
1027
1242
1551
1419
1400
1200
950
900
950
800
767
Soybeans
99
117
110
Industrial crops
113
487
6oo
Sugar cane
33
67
67
86 --
117
159
133
147
93
69
8o
133
181
133
All other industrial crops
80
370
441
a. Estimates are based on data reported by Communist China. Blank spaces indicate data not available or insufficient to make an estimate.
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Rice
c ? +. Pni a+n,~ab/
Fruits and Vegetables
Meat, Poultry and Eggs
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Table 2
Estimated Production of Specified Crops, in I an,tun,, Province., 1957-1966/
1957--
9.,4oo
9nnn
400
10,300 8,200
N-A. M. A.
t.A. N.A.
450
1960 1961
8,20'0 T.,500
1,14.n0 1;100
2,500
335
377
196
1964
10,600
1.6oo
8,900 10,200
1;400 1.400
,000 5,900
46o 605
165 1.88
4,700 4,300
750 895
210 292
19?a
10,800 10,230
2.200 2;000
4,200
1 mom.
3,800
985 970
436 332
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Table 4 ,
Average Per Capita Intake of Calories and Nutrients, Ktirangtung Province, 1957, 1959-1966 Q!
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Daily Per Capita
Total Calories
Percent from official rations
Percent from private plots
Percent from free r;arkets=f
Percent from other sources
Total calories from cereals
Grams of Protein
Grams of Pat
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
1957
1261-
1 ,46o
1,680
91.8
93.4
162
1,530
1,690 1,800
79.1 76.1
82.9 81.5
164
1,980./ 2,100
1,9501
1,930 1,870
1966
2,070
75.3 74.0 82.0
77.3 72.7 71.7
4.5 7.7 6.2 5.0 7.1 4.3
0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1
1.5 4.1 7.9 '1.6 7.9 10.6
1.1 4.2 . 6.5 8.1 9.8 23.2
2.2 9.1 9.8 12.1 11.0 3.1
5.1 12.6 11.9 14.5 16.8 5.1
Rural 1,770 1,320 1,240 1,240 1,150 1,420 1,580/ 1,630 1,510
Urban 1,230 1,190 1,460 1,480 1,380 1,510 1,6601 1,590 1,460
Rural
Urban
Rural.
Urban
33
37
12
19
35
38
17
26
1963
1,780
39
39
19
26
43
43
45
43
44
38
20
25
22
30
20
26
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Despite their small size, the private plots are much more productive
than the collective fields. The peasants cultivate the plots with extreme
care and lavish on then generous amounts of night soil and pig manure.
As a result, the plots have helped to improve the quality of the diet by
supplying more nutritious foods such as vegetables and meat, and they
have provided a :Large share of the daily caloric intake from non-grain
foods. The peasants may keep everything produced on private plots;
usually they consume some of the food and sell the remainder on local
free markets.
In Kwangtung? as elsewhere in China, the regime complains that farmers
spend too much time on private plots and not enough on the collective
fields. The leadership still tolerates the plots, however, because their
produce cannot be replaced by the collectives. The cultural revolution
has adversely affected private farming in a few areas of Kvangtung, but
there is no evidence that these disruptions are vi.despread.
3. Disposition of the Rice Harvest
Each production team surrenders a portion of its rice harvest to the
state in the payment of taxes and compulsory sales at low fixed prices.
This rice is used to feed the urban areas. In an average year, about a
third of the harvest is set aside for seed, reserves, animal feed, and
miscellaneous uses.
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The rice co.lected as taxes is based on the "normal yield" of the
land, which in scrae areas has been set higher than the average yield.
The Chinese say that both the tax base (the "normal yield") and the tax
rates remain unchanged for a period of years. The average tax rate for
Kwangtung was established at 11..5 percent in 1958, and there is no
indication that it has been changed since that time. Provincial author-
ities are free to vary the tax rate from one hsien to another, but must
maintain the overall average, and local authorities may vary the rate
for production teams within each hsien.
our g - , ;axes pa by individual production teams ranged from
less than 10 percent to more than 50 percent of the rice harvest, and
that the greatest, concentration was in the range of 11 percent to 20
as taxes was higher in years of poor harvest and lower in years of good
harvest, sug,~,estUng that the ''normal yield" and the tax rates have
remained relatively unchanged.
percent. These d.ata also show that the share of the rice harvest taken
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Production teams are ob:i.i;atcd to sell to the ;fate at fixed prices
a specified proportion of the rice that rc rxU*a- after deduction of taxes.
h: sure of the rice
harvest; so co the state during ln>61-66 was loss than 10 percent in some
cases and more than 60 percent in a few cases, with the greatest concen-'
tration in the range 21 percent to 30 percent. 2
the state may have procured
IU.V axes an Compulsory saes combined about 30 percent to 1:O percent of
the rice harvest in ICwangtung during 1961-66.
About 2 percent to 5 percent of the rice harvest is held for seed.
The amount of rice going to reserves of the local units io unknown, but
has probably been small since 1960. Some rice bran is used as animal
feed, but the amo..;nt is not known. No information is available on the
amount of rice used for feeding people who are incapacitated or who work
in water conservancy and other special projects.
The rice tha-; regains after all deductions have been made is die-
tributed to membe:7s of the production team. A basic ration is given to
each individual according to his are and grade, and the remainder is
distributed according to the number of work points each peasant has
accumulated. The work points are defined for specific tasks performed
and are designed ::n part as an incentive to the peasants to work hard
on the collective fields.
4. Agricultural m-Drovo ents
By the end o:' 1965 2.3 million hectares in Kwangtung were irrigated,
about 70 percent of the total cultivated area. Only about 60 percent of
the cultivated area, how ever, had irrigation facilities adequate to over-
come intensive drought conditions over a period of time. The installation
of electric pumps since 19 a0 has improved many irrigation f aeili ties.
By the end of 19a)' there were 5,000 pumping stations in operation, with
a total capacity of 330,000 kilowatts, serving more than 20 percent of
the area of rice fields in the province. About 4,000 of these stations
were located in the Pearl River Delta serving about 167,000 hectares.
Kw ang;tung uses large quantities of organic materials and of chemical
fertilizers such t.s ammonia sulphate and urea. In 1966 the average
application rate of chemical fertilizers on rice crops was 185 kilograms
per hectare (grosE. weight), as compared with 122 kilograms per hectare
in 1962, an incres.se- of about 50 percent. We do not know the average
application rate.on grain for China as a whole, but believe that it is
lower than in Kwar..gtung. Rice and sugar cane, respectively, receive the
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In agricultural science the focus is on improved seeds, better water
conservancy, and the proper use of fertilizer. Cadres are urged to make
full use of the :cervices of veteran farmers, to improve model fielda,
and to carry out dcaonetrations at various levels. Communes, brigades,
and teams are all required to set up high-yield demonstration plots.
Experiment stations are being built in many areas in an attempt to
develop new seed strains. At the beginning of 1966 about 28,000 hectares
of land were allocated for the testing of new rice strains, and similar
allocations probably have been made for other crops.
Major emphasis is being placed on the rotation of crops as an
important step in raising soil fertility. The winter cultivation of
green manure eroxc, to be plowed back into the soil prior to the sowing
of the early rice crop, is now encouraged. Other cultivation techniques
include wide-space planting, the selection of strong seedlings, and the
use of nylon netting in seed beds. In order to assitt with the processing
and harvesting procedures and to increase the efficiency of the labor
force,. Kwzn tong is now installing more machinery such as small electric
machines.:for? crushing sugar cane, rice-grinding machines, mixers for
livestock feed, threshers, and spray jet irrigation machines.
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5. Population, 1257 a
Table 3 presents estimates of the total, urban, and rural population
of Kwangtung Province for the years 1957-66. Reliable data are not
available for any year since 1957, and the estimates are subject to a
progressively greater margin of error. The estimates for total population
were made on the assumption that the rate of growth was the same as that
for all of China.
The urban po?Dulatinn for Kwanr?tang Province as a whole was reported
for 1957, but data for later years are available only for some cities
and they are not consistent. For example, the Chinese have supplied the
following population figures for Canton:
1957 1, 8i:O, 000
1958 2,200,000
1963 2,000,000
1967 1, 650, 000
The figure for 1958 is not consistent with the figure for 1957 because
the former included suburban areas. The reduction of 200,000 for 1963
may indicate that the figure for 1958 was rounded, or that the campaign
to reduce the size of the urban population after the collans o the
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Table 3
Estimated Population of Kwangtung Province
Total, Urban, and Rural
1957-66
Total J
Urban J
Rural J
1957
38
6.7
31
1958
39
6.8
32
1959
40
6.8
33
1960
41
6.9
34
1961
41
7.0
34
1962
42
7.0
35
1963
43
7.1
36
1964
44
7.2
37
1965
45
7.3
38
1966
45
7.4
38
a. The populaticn of Kwan.gtung is assumed to have grc n at the same rate
as the population of China as a whole (2.0 percent to 2.25 percent).
b. The urban population of Kwangtur is assumed to have grown at an average
annual rate of 1 percent. The estimated urban population is presented to
the nearest 100 thousand persons in order to show the year-to-year growth,
but the second digit is not significant.
c. The rural population of Krangtung is the residual.
Million Persons at year end
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Because of d:.fficulties such as these, the urban population of
Kwangtung cannot be estimated accurately, but it is believed to have
grown at the rate of about 1 percent annually. Consequently, the
figures for the urban population in Table 3 are even less reliable than
those for the total population. The rural population is estimated as
the residual, and it reflects errors in estimation of both the total and
the urban populations.
The current birth control campaign probably has not been any more
effective in Kvan{;tung than in other areas of China. The renewed campaign,,,
which got under wE.y in mid-1963, has not been going; long enough to produce
a measurable lowering of fertility rates. Any success achieved to date
is almost certainly confined to the urban areas. An effective educational
program will be necessary to overcome traditional beliefs in the country-
side, where more than 80 percent of the people live, and no significant
results can be expected for the next 10-15 years.
6. Consumption in Urban and Rural Areas
For China as a whole, the urban areas have consistently received
higher gram raticns than the rural areas since 1953. By contrast,
consumption of grain per capita in rural areas of Kvangtung-probably is
slightly higher than in urban areas during years of good or normal harvest.
Rural areas suffer more than urban areas during periods of poor harvest,
because the government procures large amounts of grain for distribution
in the cities. In 1957-58, the per capita consumption of grain averaged
about 20 percent higher on the farms than in the cities. when bad weather
and organizational changes resulted in very poor harvests during 1960-62,
the consumption of grain per capita dropped much more in rural areas than
in urban areas. In 1962 the per capita consumption of grain in the cities
was almost 20 percent higher than on the farms. It was not until 1965,
after agricultural production had recovered substantially, that grain
consumption per person in the rural areas was slightly higher than ran.
urban areas. Total calories consumed from all foods, including grain,
were higher in urban than in rural areas during 1960-63 and lower during
1965-66. (See Table 4+).
As indicated in Table 24-, the output from private plots has accounted
for an increasing share of the total caloric intake of both rural and
urban residents si-ace 1961. The foods produced on private plots --
vegetables, fruit, poultry, and meat -- are more nutritious but contain
fewer calories per gram than grain. These foods have helped to restore
the caloric intake and to improve substantially the quality of diet in
Kwangtung Province., as well as in all of China, since 1961.
-8.
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7. The Past as 'Prologue
The Conraunisis have been ,,.=d pressed to feed the growing popu-
lation of Kwwrangtuag Province during the past 10 years. Consumption of
cereals, which provide 80 to 90 percent of total caloric intake, was
just sufficient is 1957 to permit normal physical activities and to
maintain the standard of health. During 1960-62, consumption of grain
was reduced by alnost one-third on the farms, where more than 80 percent
of the people livs. Total caloric intake per capita reached a low in
1961 of less than 1,500 calories per day in rural areas and less than
1,700 in urban areas. People were compelled by public decree to reduce
their physical activities, malnutrition was widespread, and the regime
avoided mass starvation only by strict rationing, tolerating private
plots, and importing wheat from abroad.
The return of more normal weather, together with increased appli-
cation of chemical fertilizer and other farming improvements, permitted
a recovery in grakn consumption in Kwangtung during 196+-66, although
not to the level of 1957. Private plots contributed about 15 percent of
total caloric intake during 1964-66, compared with only about 10 percent
in 1957 and nothing during the Leap Forward (1953-60). In spite of this
partial recovery in the diet, the daily caloric intake per capita from
all foods was only about 2,000 in 1966, still below the standard in many
other countries, including some Asian countries.
The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Kwangtung must
exert increased effort in agriculture during the next 10 years if the
present minimum standard of consumption is to be maintained. Kwangtung,
and China as a whsle, does not have a significant food reserve, and the
diet lacks sufficient vitamins and minerals to avoid malnutrition in
years of poor harvest. The birth control campaign must be pushed
consistently in tie countryside in order to achieve even a sma3.l
reduction in the rate of populatinn growth within 10 years. There is
no additional araale land in Kwangtung, and nearly all future increases
in food output must come from higher yields.
The technolo.3y is available for a large expansion of agricultural
output in China,,. and a reservoir of valuable experience exists in
neighboring countries. Substantial investments would be required in
chemical fertilizer, new irrigation facilities, and agro-technical im-
provements such as new seeds and better farming methods. Japan and
Taiwan have demonstrated that a major breakthrough in agricultural
productivity is possible with large investments and years of patient
effort. Although China has not yet started a comparable program, the
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long run prospects probably are good that productivity could be increased
as much as it has in Japan and Taiwan. Peking, however, has made political
and military eonmitments that, for the present, seem to prevent an all-out
effort in agriculture. Whether or not China can continue to feed its
growing population in the long run depends in large measure on the regime's
willingness to pay the very substantial cost required.
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