COUNTER-DEFERENCE AND THE ABM

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CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100063-5
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2
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January 12, 2006
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63
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August 29, 1967
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Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100063-5 August 29, 1967 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - APPENDIX through the underbrush and went di- rectly to the point. In order that his statement may re- ceive wider attention, I insert his state- ment in the RECORD following my re- marks: STATEMENT ON PRESIDENT'S TAX INCREASE PROPOSALS BEFORE THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS (By William Jackman, president, Inves- tors, League, Inc., August 25, 1967) My name is William Jackman. I am Presi- dent of the Investors League, a non-profit, non-partisan organization of thousands of individual investors from every state in the nation with offices at 84 Fifth Avenue, New York, New York, Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of your Committee, I wish to thank you for the privilege of presenting to you our views on the President's proposals to increase cor- porate and individual income taxes now be- fore you for consideration. The President asks for an individual and corporate income tax surcharge of 10% start- ing on October 1, 1967 for individuals and July 1, 1967 for corporations. These sur- charges would be "temporary" and expire in June 1969. He also asks for an extension of automobile and telephone excise taxes. The principal reasons given by the Admin- istration for these recommendations are to head off inflation and soaring interest rates. The proceeds of $7.4 billions presumably would be used to reduce the 1968 federal budget deficit now estimated at $29 billions (instead of the $8 billions estimated at the beginning of the year). PROPOSALS WOULD BE INEFFECTIVE Gentlemen, it is our opinion, that these tax increases are unnecessary at this time and would prove ineffective. The only way to put our government's financial house in order would be to drastically curtail non- defense federal spending programs and to defer other ones now under consideration. Every businessman knows that high taxes, just like high wages, are inflationary. They represent costs of doing business, and these increased costs, when they exceed increased production, must be passed along in higher prices to the consumer. As regards higher interest rates, excessive government debt competes for the people's savings and naturally forces up interest rates. This is exactly what has been hap- pening in recent years. In the long run, in- terest rates are controlled by the laws of supply and demand, and not by government fiat. CUT FEDERAL SPENDING Since 1960 the U.S. population has grown by only 10%. In the same period, the per- sonnel comprising the civilian bureaucracy of the Federal government has grown by 25%; the cost of government payrolls, in- cluding military, has grown by 75%; the total of all government spending has grown by 83%; non-defense expendtlures of the Federal government are up 97%. It is obvious that the only sensible step toward curbing inflation and huge deficits, is to cut federal spending. There is a bill, S. 538, passed by the Senate in May, now pending before the House. It provides for creation of a Joint Committee on the Budget. It should be passed. A NEW COMMISSION NEEDED A more fundamental, additional approach to expenditure control is envisioned in a proposal by the distinguished Chairman of this Committee, Congressman Wilbur D. Mills. His bill, H.R. 10520 would create a 12-member bipartisan Government Program Evaluation Commission, its members drawn from private life, to examine all Federal program and activities, old, new and pro- jected, and assign priorities among them. The yardstick would be "the fundamental needs and vital objectives of the Nation". The Commission would ask of each program: What is its effectiveness in terms of pres- ent and future costs? Should it be con- tinued? If so, at what level of funding? A companion Senate bill, S. 2032, has been introduced by Sen. William Proxmire (D- Wis.), Chairman of the Joint Economic Com- mittee. He calls the idea "a fresh look" at government expenditures needed to instruct Congress and the President as to how much should be appropriated in a given fiscal year for each Federal activity. The rationale of expenditure control was outlined by Rep. Mills in a speech in late May, before he introduced H.R. 10520. Among his points: After taxes were reduced in 1964, it appeared that the rate of Federal spending had moderated. But in September 1965, the spending rate rose quickly and this year, if certain con- tingencies occur, the Nation is faced with the prospect of a possible fiscal year 1968 budget deficit of nearly $30 billion-the larg- est since World War II. Though urgent de- fense costs account for part of the spending rise, non-defense costs also have risen and this is where controls must be applied. First- year costs of a new program are only part of the story; of more concern is what future costs will be-5, 10 even 15 years ahead. As these rise, they can impose a "straitjacket" on tax policy and endanger the desired goal of spending controls coupled with "regular, frequent and significant reductions in tax rates" which will free the private economy to help solve problems "which many people are urging that the Government solve di- rectly". Therefore, priorities must be set on non-defense programs. EXCISE TAX REVISION The Administration proposals to extend excise taxes on automobiles and telephone services are likewise inflationary. The F.C.C. is trying to reduce telephone rates. Why not let the "temporary" Korean War excise taxes expire? The same thing applies to automobile excise taxes. Threatened strikes and other factors are going to force up automobile prices. Continuation of the excise tax will force prices even higher. If there is to be an excise tax, which might be a saving grace if applied fairly, it should be at a very low rate applied equally to all industry at the manufacturer's level, with the possible exception of food and drug in- dustries. The President estimates that "extension" of scheduled reductions in telephone and automobile excise taxes would provide addi- tional Federal revenues of $300 millions for fiscal 1968 and over $2 billions in 1969. The $2 billion figure for 1969 seems to be a highly questionable estimate. A SOURCE OF NEW REVENUES It would be much more simple to collect such additional revenues by a simple tax re- duction. This could be done promptly by en- acting H.R. 8146, a bill introduced on April 6, 1967 by Congressman James B. Utt. This bill provides for a 50% reduction in the maxi- mum tax rate on long-term capital gains, from 25 % to 12% %. Dependable surveys in- dicate that if this bill were enacted, the Treasury would receive nearly $700 million more than under present rates. If these sur- veys were updated, they would indicate that the Treasury's increased revenues from this source would be even greater. TIMING WRONG The timing of the President's tax increase proposal seems all wrong. We can as yet see no indication of a big business boom. Ask the steel and auto boys. These are basic indus- tries. Labor uncertainties in the near future are alarming to these industries and could well result in a slump, certainly not a boom. CONSIDER THE STOCKHOLDER Under the President's proposals, the in- dividual who is a stockholder will be hit A 4381 double since a 10% surcharge on the present 48% corporate rate will raise that rate to 52.8% or more than it was before the reduc- tion of the old 52% rate. The individual will then bear the bite on any dividend distribu- tions. Because so much of personal income is in the lower tax brackets, a relatively small but constant increase in each of the percentages in the several graduated brackets, say by 2 percentage points, might well produce more tax revenue than the higher-sounding 10% surcharge. Because Inflation is best checked by a tax that reduces consumer income and that bears least heavily upon income likely to be in- vested, the flat increase in the scale of rates would seem more appropriate economically than the 10% surcharge at this time. There is talk of making tax surcharges larger for corporations than for individuals. Just remember that, tax-wise, there is no such thing as a "corporation". "Corporations" are only millions of people pooling their in- vested savings together. The corporate in- come tax is one of the Treasury's major sources of income. They are paid only out of profits at a rate of 48%. The remaining earnings distributed to in- dividual stockholders are then taxed at rates from 14% to 70%. It is obvious that if the Treasury wants more income, they should go all out to encourage business expansion and creation of even greater profits. Whenever government attacks profits, it is simply at- tacking itself. As Senator William Proxmire crisply summarizes, "the crux of my opposi- tion to the President's 10% surtax proposal is that it is dead certain to retard this na- tion's economic growth". Gentlemen, our entire Federal tax system must be overhauled. It has become a hodge- podge mess. Its policies must be established and controlled by Congress, and not by the executive branch or its bureaus who are only presumed to enforce our laws and not to make them. In your tax thinking, gentlemen, just re- member that there are over 24,000,000 Amer- ican investor-shareowners whose savings provide the jobs for our workers in industry and produce under our free-enterprise profit system, the goods and services that have given this nation the highest standard of liv- ing in this world. And remember one other thing. This system is called "Capitalism". Karl Marx, in his "Communist Manifesto", stated that the surest way to destroy Capital- ism was to impose a heavy progressive in- come tax and an ever higher inheritance tax. We have already gone too far down this road. Gentlemen, I thank you. EXTENSION OF REMARKS OF 'HON. BOB WILSON OF CALIFORNIA IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Tuesday, August 29, 1967 Mr. BOB WILSON. Mr. Speaker, that trenchant observer of the American scene, Will Rogers, once observed that in the field of disarmament Americans had a tendency to scrap battleships while their opponents tore up blueprints. Something of this American tendency of an almost extremist good will is in evi- dence today with reference to the ques- tion of anti-ballistic-missile defense. We balk and talk in the hope that we can persuade the Soviet Union to dismantle its present anti-ballistic-missile system Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100063-5 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100063-5 A4382 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - APPENDIX August 29, 1967 and to refrain from going ahead with further missile defenses. The Soviets stall in the negotiations while continuing to build and deploy their ABM's. SOVIET CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS The recent study prepared by a spe- cial subcommittee of the National Strat- egy Committee of the American Secu- rity Council entitled "The Changing Strategic Military Balance: U.S.A. ver- sus U.S.S.R." has stated that- The preponderance of evidence points to the conclusion that the Soviet Union is suc- ceeding in its massive drive toward strategic military superiority . . . (and that) the year 1967 falls in a crossover period with the U.S.S.R. estimates ranging between 16,000 and 37,000 (deliverable) megatons, to equal or exceed the U.S. estimated range of between 8,000 and 29,000 (deliverable) megatons. This study, with its graphic documen- tation of the Soviet thrust for military- technological superiority, has received, and continues to receive, widespread at- tention from leading editors and author- ities in both the daily and, the periodical press. The New York Times, for exam- ple, in a front-page story on July 12, 1967, stated that-- The Defense Department did not directly contradict the study's findings, but argued that deliverable megatonna.ge was not an accurate indicator of "true military capabil- ity." It has been argued in some quarters in the West, however, that Soviet capa- bilities as illustrated by the Soviet de- ployment of an ABM system need not be a cause for alarm, since Soviet inten- tions are peaceful and the cold war is, in fact, over. But are the Soviet leaders mellowing? Unfortunately, the most recent evidence would appear to indicate that storm flags are flying in the Kremlin. Some storm signals are: First. The official pronouncement of the Communist Paxty of the Soviet Union issued June 25, 1967, in a summary of 50 years of bolshevism. It stated that "the domination of imperialism on the world scene has ended" because of the growth of Soviet military power. The statement also singled cut the United States as the "main enemy" of the na- tional liberation warfare movement and charged the State of Israel with aggres- sion. Second. Appointing-for the first time since Berta"s execution in 1953- the Soviet secret police chief a member of the ruling Politburo. This is Yuri An- dropov, whose promotion was announced June 22, 1967. Since the KGB-the So- viet secret police--have vast responsibil- ities for waging unconventional warfare around the world, it would appear that giving Andropov such power indicates stepped-up cold war operations. Third. Writing in the official Soviet Armed Forces newspaper, Red Star, on June 3, 1967, Bulgarian :Minister of De- fense, General of the Army Dobri Dzhu- rov.said: The Soviet Union has always been and will continue to be the main political and ma- terial base of the world revolutionary process. (Emphasis added.) The general also went on to say that- The Soviet Union constitutes the. main support of fighting Vietnam. Fourth. Soviet escalation of the Viet- nam war is another example of the So- viet's true intentions. Soviet shipping going into North Vietnamese ports has shown a marked increase this year over 1966. As of June 1967 the rate was 18 per month, with an additional two to five Soviet satellite ships per month. Indicative of this escalation is the Mos- cow Radio broadcast of July 28 which stated that Soviet ships "leave c?dessa practically every day with cargces for Vietnam." Fifth. The recent hard line in toe So- viet press which continually r.ttacks Israel, "Zionism," and the United States. In reporting this trend from Moscow, the Washington Post of August 8, 1967, stated that the press campaign was one which "to some senior diplomats here recalls the worst days of the cold war." These indicators of increasingly "stormy cold war weather" indicate that Soviet strategists understand quite well that revolutionary agitationand propa- ganda, "peace marchers" in London and New York, guerrillas in Africa and Latin America, are techniques of conflict on a par with guided missiles and nuclear submarines. But does it follow that these same Soviet strategists are unaware of the possibilities for nuclear blackmail of the West in the event that they at- tain strategic military-technological su- periority? Indeed, one may well ask whether the present U.S. limitations on air strikes against military targets in North Vietnam result from the steady accretion of Soviet military-tecl-nolog- ical power. CHINESE COMMUNIST NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT Even if it were possible to disregard the evidence of the Soviet deployment of an ABM system or systems and the coun- ter-deterrence which this poses to the announced U.S. policy of deterrence, it would be still more difficult to close our minds to the ominous developments in China. The Chinese Communists exploded their first H-bomb on June 17, 1967. It was apparently a sophisticated implosion type in the two-to-seven megaton range. The complicated electronic triggering and measuring devices that would appear to have been required, in this and other nuclear tests, would be of great assist- ance to the Chinese in building an inter- continental missile. Since the Chinese progress in nuclear weapons develop- ment has been faster and more effective than had been anticipated by Western sources, it raay be that they will also develop a nuclear ICBM delivery capa- bility sooner than the mid-1970's, which is the time phase previously estimated by Western sources. Moreover, the Chinese now possess the design capability for a multimegaton thermonuclear weapon which can be delivered by aircraft. The possibilities of the Chinese Com- munists exercising nuclear blackmail against Southeast Asia countries, Japan, or, indeed, against the United States are underscored in a report released Au- gust 3, 1967, by the Joint Congressional Committee on Atomic Energy. The com- mittee said: We believe that the Chinese will continue to place a high priority on thermonuclear weapons development. With continued test- ing we believe they will be able to develop a thermonuclear warhead in the ICBM weight class with a yield in the megaton range by about 1970. We believe that the Chinese can have an ICBM system ready for deployment in the early 1970's. On the basis of our present knowledge, we believe that the Chinese probably will achieve an opera- tional ICBM capability before 1972. Con- ceivably, it could be ready as early as 1970- 1971. The Joint Comm: ttee then went on to sound a warning about the direct threat to U.S. national. security posed by Chi- nese Communist nuclear weapons devel- opments by pointing out that- Most significant for the United States is the fact that a law order of magnitudeattack could possibly be launched by the Chinese Communists against the United States by the early 1970's. At present we do not have an effective anti-ballistic-missile system which could repel sr tc:h a suicidal (for the Chinese) but nevertheless possible strike. THE STABILIZING VALUE OF A U.S. ABM SY 3TEM In the final analysis, the value of a sys- tem of deterrence is that which the enemy believes about it. If the Soviets believe that the U S. deterent offensive force can be neutralizd by their ABM systems to a point at which the Soviet warmaking capability will sustain only an acceptable level of damage-and, of course, their acce=ptable level may be much higher than ours-then they have achieved a counter-deterrence posture which may lead them to risk-at a given crisis in international relations-a nu- clear war. Equally. - if at some future point the Chinese Communists should believe-in the absence of a U.S. ABM system-that there is somewhat more of a "suicidal" element for the United States than for them in a nuclear war, they might, in a given confrontation, launch a surprise nuclear attack on America. The evidence of the post-World War II period suggests that it has been the stabilizing factor of U.S. military-tech- nological power which has prevented a general war. Today, under the impact of both the Soviet and Chinese Communist military-technologi.cal thrust, that sta- bility appears to be threatened. Would the production and. deployment of a U.S. ABM system-perhaps even on a crash basis as a clear demonstration of credi- bility-have a definite stabilizing value on world politics? That it might well do so is indicated by the thoughtful and carefully measured words of the Senate Appropriations Committee. In reporting on the Defense Department appropria- tion bill for :fiscal 1968-August 4, 1967- the committee said: It is the view of. the Committee that the deployment of the Nike-X antiballistic mis- sile system should be initiated immediately, and the Committee urges the executive branch of the Government to take action accordingly. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100063-5