U.S. AIDES FORESEE CHINA ARMS FEAT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100044-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 10, 2006
• Sequence Number: 44
• Content Type: NSPR

Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300100044-6
U.S. AIDES FORESEE
CHINA ARMS FEAT
Orbiting of Satellite or ICBM
Test in October Predicted
By WILLIAM BEECHER
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, June 29-
Communist China may stage it,
next. weapons "spectacular" thi
first week in October with i
satellite launching or the fir;n?
of its first Intercontinental bal
listlo m.;,ssile, a top Administra
tion .weapons expert prediets.
Officials say the Chinese ar
preparing a small ntitni?er a
large, liqu;d-fuel rockets tha
could be employed to put-"
satellite into space or to prop
a dummy warhead 4,000 t
3,000 miles Into the Pacif
Ocean.
The first test shot, they sa:
could .come as soon as Augu!
or as late as next spring.
One spec;alist based his est
mate of the October launchin
on a presumed Chinese dealt
to get the greatest propagand
value from the feat.
`Ideal Time to Show Off'
"The U.N. General Assembl
should 'Just have returned an
will likely be arguing about th
admission of China at abou
that time," he said. "And th
Russians will be , celebrating
with parades and proud speech
es, the October Revolution tha
brought them to power. Tha
would be an ideal time foi
China to show off its growing
power." Peking will also mark
the 18th anniversary of its
take-over of the Chinese main-
land Oct. 1.
The experts differ on wheth-
er the Chinese will want to loft
a satellite or ICBM first.
"The Chinese, if anything,
bragged even more than the
Russians about the Soviets'
first Sputnik in October, 1957,"
one expert pointed out. "An or-
biting satellite Is visible, tangi-
ble evidence of scientific prog-
ress. The ordinary man can up
and see it. And the scientists
that
and military men realize that
what could launch a satellite
could also be used to carry a
warhead."
A satellite launched from the
Chinese testing ground near
Lob Nor in the northwestern
region of Sinkiang might be ex-
pected to pass generally over
New York, Washington, St.
Louis, Denver and San h`ran-
cisco in the United States, a
ApproV iilint RoVease 2006/01/30
If the Chinese decide on an
I IIB1 test first, to stress their
fast pace toward Big-Power
nuclear capability, It is expected
that the rocket will be fired
over the Pacific rather than the
Indian Ocean, so that it will
pass over a wider expanse of
Chinese territory and facilitate
tracking.
"Red China doesn't have
large, sophisticated radar-track-
ing ships as we and the Rus-
sians do," a Defense analyst
said. "They might want to keep
their shot close to their own
territory so they can get more
useful data from It."
The experts estimate that an
operational ICBM could be
ready two to three years after
the first test.