OUTLINE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM APRIL 24, 1959 BY ALLEN W. DULLES 'THE WORLD SITUATION'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70-00058R000100230002-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: November 11, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: OUTLINE

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OUTLINE OF BPSBCH GIVU AT
AIR WAR COLD NATICIAL SECURITY YMM
April 27, 1959
BY
AU UM W. DULL
"TES w =z SITUATI "
A Word About Intelligence Cnity
1. ISTROWCTICN - Deal with basic issues - rather than
attempt country-by-country analysis.
2. Most troubles stem from ?ino-Soviet Bloc policies -
No longer merely nationalistic - International
Communism has world-vide ambitions.
3. Some problems - - even if no international Cosmnmism - -
Nations emerging from colonial rule -- - Africa, Cuba,
etc. - but even these aggravated by Bloc's activities.
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2.
Oeueral political posture of W.B.S.R. (Deal with china
separately.)
(a) Does not proposes initiate general var - -
now.
(b) Will it be Fiore adventuresoaae now that it
has nuclear semi plenty?
Some division of thought here.
Stalin adventuresome in Korea - Berlin
before had nuclear bombs.
On balance believe Khrushchev viii be
more active then in 1953-1958 period
but short of var.
(c) Will emphasize the subversive type of
actions - Iraq - Capitalizes on imcempetence
of new countries to govern.
(d) What about limited wars? Ware by Proxy
(as Korea).
(e) Emphasis on secrecy - security (Geneva talcs
Hide weaknesses and permit surprises.
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3-
5- Military posture of U.S.8.R.
emphasis on -
Guided missiles.
(b) Nuclear power.
(c) Conventional weapons.
(d) Nuclear subs?
ITef enae against air attack.
Are they ahead over-all.' No.
Will there be a missile ipp?
Why did we do so little in missiles betveen 1943-19531)
Industrial position - -
(efer Now Orleans speech)
Q.N.P. - 45$
Put greater proportion of Q.A.P. back into industrial
capacity.
7? Will a riculture sloe then down?
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8. China - -
(a) The alliance still strong with the U.S.8.a'
(Are there potential fissures?)
(b) U.S.S.R. sensitive to co tines.
Tibet.
(4) Attitude toward Taiwan
(The Warsaw talks).
9? The 4 rave Issues
(a) Berlin - Bhrushsthev's intentions - split Allies
and NATO - but o ompromise short of var.
Bast Oerman regime - Ulbricht.
Keeping Berlin Bc-i.ng as industrial city.
Berlin as cancer - vis-a-vis Satellites.
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5.
(b) Middle Bast
Here Coanunist and old Imperialist Russian
ambitions coincide.
Khrushchev's plan use Iraq and Kurds to
split Middle Bast - move into heart of oil
areas.
is it Communist controlled?
(c)
(d)
Has Bauer broken with U.S.S.R. - with
The threat to Iran.
The future of Arab Nationalism.
Quemoy and hivan
Will CHIC' renew offensive?
Latin America
Cuba and non-intervention - end of
dictatorships.
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6.
(e) Free democracies versus Com uist-dominated
societies
Democracy requires education, a erience,
discipline and patience Can't expect new
societies of =A - Africa, etc., to apply
our standards.
Trend toward military autocracies -
Burst, Pakistan, Sudan, Indonesia, etc..
Headlong rush to freedom - in Black Africa
(r) C titian with U.B.S.R. for role of Economic
Guide to Uncommitted World
The appeal of U.S.S.R. - In three decades from
Yet we have great advantages - but legislative
strings - annual Congressional battle - little
ability to long-term planning heelers our
effort.
European powers - gland - Germany
Italy can play supporting role.
Long-term loans - Development fund - best
answer.
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(g) tine the Subversive Threat
The Communist Parties - Front organizatic?oa.
In general making progress - decline in
Caasauniat parties - France - Italy.
Indonesia turning away.
But etilllong vsy to go.
Disarmament - Reality or dream.
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8.
Re ca aitulation:
Since fail of China - that is, for last nine years -
balance - international Communism has on balance made
no not gains (North neimam versus evacuation zast
Austria).
Free World on balance relatively stronger
economically and politically
U.S.S.R. has made gain in becoming great nuclear
power and in missile field - giving it strong
blackmailing weapon (it we let them frighten us).
U.S.S.R. putting largsr percentage its national
product into national objectives - military and related
fields,
Query whether we can safely continue put three times
as much into consumer goods - luxury items - raising
living standards, etc. -
We may have to tighten belts if U.S.S.R. continues
its present national security policies.
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9*
Finally - - You suggested that I give intelligence estimate
for future:
1. The Free World can continue to maintain position
of overall superiority:
(a) If it remains united and militarily prepared.
(b) (If it) refuses to retreat or compromise
(c) If it moves with assurance and speed in
helping to deal with the economic problems
of the uncommitted, underdeveloped world.
(d) If it succeeds in arousing the Free World
2. Sow* evolution in U.S.S.R. under education - - contacts - -
growing demand for consumer goods.
Not hopeless that in decade or so - a different
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