DOMINO THEORY WITH RESPECT TO SOUTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP67B00446R000300170018-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: January 1, 1965
• Content Type: OPEN

-Approved For R C BO 300170018-2
million. Additional authorizations as, the Communist underground in the consider- at the New York World's .Fair as it recorded
necessary for continuing years is pro- able town ofNakhon Phanom. the latest gain in the population of the
vlded. The circulation of Communist tracts and United States. When the fair opened in
I am sure that the upper Great Lakes pamphlets, both in the northeast and also in April, it read 191,510,384; when it closed in
Bangkok itself, has also been greatly stepped October, it read 192,974,586; when it reopens
region can be a showplace in a more up. The pressure is on, in short. The aim this April, it will read ' approximately
beautiful America. It can also become is to be ready to exploit a U.S. defeat in 194,100,000.
a rural slum. The choice lies in large" Vietnam-after which the Thai Government Advertisements in New York subways urged
measure with us in the Congress., For will be urgently and menacingly requested visitors to the fair to "see the exciting story
to change its political alinement. of the population this reason I urge that a comprehensive explosion." I am sure
regional abe adopted to solve Item: In the Philippines, the Communist millions marveled at this dramatic display of
the prat approach pp o this area which I have guerrillas, the Hukbalahaps, have resumed the constant growth of our Nation-an
aggressive activity after years of quiescence. America that every dozen seconds was "big-
outlined. I urge that the Senate amend They have an immune stronghold in Pam- ger and better" than ever.
the Appalachian bill and establish an panga Province, and now number about 2,000 We are bigger, yes. But is America the
Upper Great Lakes Regional ,Authority. fighting men. better for increased population? I think not.
Mr. MILLER. Mr, President` J will the In parallel, Communist propaganda in In fact, while we watch the "exciting story of
Senator yield? Manila is bearing more and more important the population explosion," we may, like
Mx. COOPER. I yield., j fruits, in the form of anti-American protest characters in Greek tragedy, be witnessing
ti
DOMINO THEORY WITH - RESPECT.
TO SOUTH VIETNAM,
Mr.. MILLER. Mr, President, the able
and knowledgeable columnist, Joseph
Alsop, has a most perceptive article on
the domino theory with respect to South
Vietnam in today's Washington Post.
Those whose euphoria causes them to
hope the domino theory will somehow go
away would do well to read this article,
I ask -unanimous consent that it be
printed in the RECORD.
There being no objection, the article
was ordered to be printed in the RECORD,
as follows:
mee
ngs, burnings in effigy of the U.S. Am- our own decline. For unchecked population
bassador, and so on. Again, these are prep- growth-in our country as elsewhere-
arations to exploit an expected American de- threatens, if not human life itself, then
feat-after which the Philippine Government surely life as we want it to be.
will more and more tend to sound like Su- The problem of population growth is as
karno's Indonesian Government. important as any facing mankind today-and
Item: Extremely disturbing signs have its solution is as difficult. Until recently, I
appeared in Taiwan. The chief Chinese in- regarded control of nuclear weapons as man's
telligence operative in Macao, Gen. Ch'eng paramount problem. Yet, there Is justifiable
I-ming-the Taiwanese equivalent of the hope that these weapons will never again be
CIA station chiefs in Bonn, Berlin, Vienna, used. An enormous increase in world popu-
and Moscow, all rolled into one-has defected lation, however, seems inevitable.
to the Chinese Communists. Another fairly Both nuclear weapons and population
important military figure, Gen. Chao Chih- growth endanger mankind. The threat of
hue, has been arrested for subversive public one is the sudden danger of an act of vio-
talk. lence. The other threatens with the erosive
At least four outbreaks of local dissidence quality of a wasting illness. The tragic dif-
in Chinese Nationalist Army units have had ference is that the world worries about arms
to be forcibly suppressed. In consequence, control, while population control seems to be
Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek has taken the problem the world would rather for
et
g
.
TuE DoSSINO T#IEORY the fairly grave step of giving the key post Population growth has a grim arithmetic.
(By Joseph Alsop) of Minister of Defense to his son, Gen. The accelerating pace of growth causes the
Chiang Ching-kuo, who is also the head of most concern. It took mankind all of re-
As was predictable, the Vietnamese crisis the government police. corded time until the 1840's to achieve a
has entered another phase of acute inflamma- The aim of Chiang Ching-kuo's appoint- population of 1 billion. It took less than
tion. Political deterioration will inevitably ment, quite obviously, is to have a strong a century to add the second billion, 30 years
continue until and unless President Johnson hand on the helm of the armed forces, in the to add the third. And at today's rate of in-
takes strong measures to reverse the military event of further trouble. Yet in Taiwan, crease, by 1975 the world population will
trend. every thinking Chinese Nationalist long ago reach 4 billion.
As was ,also predictable, the Republicans made the outcome in Vietnam the unique Figures like these surprise many Americans,
have begun their. preparations to exploit an touchstone of American strength of will. although "the population explosion" is part
expected disaster in southeast Asia, In a Hence even the strongest hand is unlikely of the vernacular of our time. As James
speech obviously intended to make a record to be able to contain the trouble that will Reston writes, "Probably never in history has
for the future, former Vice President, Richard result from a final American defeat in the so obvious and significant a fact been so
M. Nixon has called on President Johnson to Vietnamese war. widely evaded."
take whatever measures may be needed to All this and other evidence indicate that The National Academy of Sciences report-
end the war by winning it. the Chinese Communists are not merely hop- ed last year: "Not only must the current con-
In short, the specter of a catastrophic ing for an American defeat. They are already tinned increase in the rate of population
American defeat looms larger and larger, and preparing to take advantage of it, through growth cease, but this rate must decline
it becomes clearer and clearer that the in- their rather considerable agent net. The again. There can be no doubt concerning
quest on this defeat-if it is permitted to confident expectation of an American defeat this long-term prognosis: Either the birth-
occur-will poison our national life. In is also the key to the mountebank goings-on rate of the world must come down or the
these circumstances, the aimless drift that of Prince Sihanouk in Cambodia, to the death rate must go back up."
afflicts our Vietnamese policymaking calls out violence of President Sukarno in Indonesia, We can be sure that man will not willingly
for explanation. Part of the explanation is and even to the recent policy shifts of Gen- surrender the degree of death control he has
clearly to be found in a question sometimes eral- de Gaulle. already won. The solution of the population
put to callers at the White House. - In the circumstances, dismissal of the problem, therefore, is a lower birthrate. The
"Do you still believe in the domino domino theory is premature, to put it rather problem's complexity lies in the necessity
theory?" is the question. mildly. of communicating effectively with literally
It is asked in a tone so scornful and accus- hundreds of millions of people. As Arnold
ing that little doubt remains about the cur- Toynbee has put it, "Myriads of minds will
rent unpopularity of the domino theory in THE POPULATION EXPLOSION have to be enlightened, and myriads of wills
White Hoilse circles. The President has evi- will have to be induced to make myriads of
dently persuaded himself, or at least three- Mr. MILLER. Mr. President, in the difficult personal choices."
quarters persuaded himself, that.a great de- February 9 issue of Look magazine there These myriads of personal choices are the
feat in Vietnam need not have the grave con- is a very. timely and well documented root of the population problem. Its solu-
sequences outside Vietnam predicted by the article by John D. Rockefeller III, en- tion, and mankind's future, depends upon
domino theorists. titled "The Hidden Crisis," which dis- enough of these choices being the right
It would be comforting if'there were any cusses the population explosion problem. choices: right for the parents, right for the
solid evidence on this side of the argument. family, right for society. Unfortunately,
Unhappil , however, recent developments I commend the article to 8111 Who are more often than not, these individual decf-
have pro uceii a mass of evidence to sustain interested in the subject; and I believe sions are decisions by default-vital decisions
the domino theory. The following sets of all people should be. I ask unanimous made in default of adequate knowledge.
facts are of particular importance. consent that it be printed in the RECORD. Large masses of people, even today, simply
Item; The situation In.aortheast Thailand There being no objection, the article do not know that they can determine the
is beginning to show marked resemblances to was ordered to be printed in the RECORD, number of their children. They do not know
the situation in South Vietnam. when the follows: that means-safe, effective and acceptable
Communist guerrillas were first ordered to THE HIDDEN Cxxsis means-exist to limit family size. Most im-
take the offensive. Village, chiefs loyal to portant, they are unaware of the facts upon
the Government are being murdered more (By John D. Rockefeller 3d)
which decisions on family size should be
.and more frequently. A rather high Central All last summer, every 12 seconds, the based, of the physical, social, and economic
Government. official was also assassinated by number changed on the huge "demograph" advantages of planned families.
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CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE January 29
ibese facts must somehow be communi-
cated; these myriads of minds must be
reached. And despite all our recent strides
In behavioral sciences, who knows with cer-
tainty how to reach and influence even one
complex human being? -
NEW HOPE FOR SUCCESS
The task is formidable, but I am convinced
that in its achievement lies one of the great
humanitarian opportunities of our day. We
must not be distracted by difficulty. Major
developments in recent years present solid
reasons for hope that the world's population
growth will be stabilized-and in time to pre-
serve the kind of life we know today.
One development I regard as most encour-
aging is the widespread and rising recogni-
tion of the existence of the population prob-
lem by government officials, religious leaders
and private citizens. The subject of popu-
lation control, upon which so many were so
long silent, is no longer spoken of in whispers,
but is being freely and holdly discussed,
argued and examined.
The most significant recent recognition of
the question was the attention given to it
at the latest session of the Ecumenical Coun-
cil. That followed the announcement last
summer by Pope Paul VI that the Catholic
Church was giving '"wide and profound"
study to the problem of birth control. This
"extremely grave" problem, the Pope said,
"touches on the mainsprings of human life."
:Mohamed Ayub Khan, president of Paki-
stan, is giving vigoroussupport to a national
population-control program in his crowded
country. During a visit to the United States,
he said: "All the effort that is being mounted
in new countries like mine will be wasted if
we can't keep our population within rea-
sonable bounds."
An even more tangible reason for my hope
that population Can be stabilized is the emer-
gence of an improved technology for con-
traception-One example is the development and test-
ing of steroid pills, the long-sought oral
contraceptive. Although effective, the pills
do not meet other requirements of the ideal
contraceptive. They are - often too expen-
sive for the people who need them most,
and they require considerable motivation and
good memory, for they must be taken every
day for 20 days of every month.
More capable of wide and effective use is
the new intrauterine device, sometimes called
the coil or loop, which many doctors and
demographers believe may be the best con-
traceptive yet invented.
Since the 1920's, it has been known that
a small device (at first, it was a silver ring)
placed within the human uterus would pre-
vent a pregnancy. The discovery is credited
to a German doctor, although it is said that
Arabs prevented breeding of camels by such
a technique centuries ago. During the
1950's, experiments with the intrauterine
device were repeated, and its design modified
in Israel and Japan.
S sful in continuing tests the device
cces
sidizing privately organized efforts. The
governments of half the people in the un-
derdeveloped world now officially favor family
planning, However, every attempt to intro-
duce family planning among a large popula-
tion encounters a defeating lack of knowl-
edge in two crucial areas. There Is no sure
way to motivate couples to plan their fami-
lies; nor is there enough tested knowledge
of how to organize, staff, finance and admin-
ister an effective program within the limita-
tions of the developing nations. This needed
know-how, essential to the solution of the
population problem, is the purpose of a
growing number of important pilot projects
in several countries. If they are successful,
they will offer the most solid basis for con-
fidence.
On a visit to Taiwan, I had the opportunity
of seeing one of these projects in action in
the city of Taichung. Conducted by the
provincial health department with the sup-
port of the population council, it offers an
excellent illustration of the approach and
scope of these pioneer knowledge-seeking ef-
forts. Set up in a city of 300.000, the Tai-
chung project is one of the most exxtensive
and elaborate social-science experiments ever
conducted. The project's experts seek to
learn if fertility control can be accepted on
a large scale in a developing area, and at
what cost in money, time, and personnel.
A preproject survey developed Important
findings on attitudes toward family plan-
ning. It showed that 90 percent of Tai-
chung's wives (and their husbands, too, ac-
cording to the wives) wished to limit the size
of their families. Most wanted only four
children, recognized the economic advantage
of a small family, did not object in principle
to family planning, and did not believe the
number of children should be left to "provi-
dence" or "fate." The women were aware
of the decline in infant mortality and under-
stood that, unlike their parents, they did
not need to bear five to seven children In
order to have three or four survive to adult-
hood. The salient message was that in Tai-
chung, people have more children than they
want.
To measure how much effort is necessary
to control population growth, the Taichung
project staff experimented with various kinds
and degrees of communication. The city was
divided into about 2,400 neighborhoods, and
each received one of four kinds of "treat-
ments." In order of increasing effort, the
treatments were designated "Nothing,"
"Mail;" "Everything (wives only)," and
"Everything (wives and husbands)." The
city as a whole was exposed to only two as-
pects of the program: a general distribution
of posters pointing out the advantages of
family planning, and a series of meetings
where program workers described the pro-
gram to community leaders and sought their
advice and support. The "Nothing" neigh-
borhoods received only the posters and the
meetings. The "Mails" had the addition of
a direct-mail campaign to newlyweds and
u
Parents of two or more children. The "Every-
is capable of mass manufacture in plastic.
it requires a medically trained person for thing" neighborhoods had home visits by
its insertion, which will help assure respon- nurse-midwives, who arranged appointments
sible use. Among its advantages are that at local health stations, offered a choice of
it costs but a few pennies to make, requires contraceptives, answered questions, and did
only a single motivation and lasts for months whatever was necessary to satisfy a couple's
and even years. And it can be removed at desire for guidance.
any time that the user wishes - to bear a WHAT ONE TEST PROVED
child. This tiny piece of plastic may sym- The results are still preliminary, but great-
bolize the beginning of a new era of hope ly encouraging. The effectiveness of word-
for all who concern themselves with the fu- of-mouth was shown: More than half the
ture well-being of man and the world in women accepting contraceptives came to the
which he lives. health station without personal contact by
Still another reason for my hope is the a program worker; about a quarter came
beginning of significant action in several from outside the city where there was no
countries, India, Pakistan and South Korea organized effort. The new intrauterine de-
have adopted national policies of limiting vice was the choice of 78 percent of the
population and have programs under way. women accepting contraceptives, and 80 per-
Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey and Egypt are cent of the devices were still in place after
considering policies or developing programs. 6 months. Reduced to a single statistic, a
Ceylon, Hong Kong and Malaysia are sub- before-and-after survey showed that one-
fifth fewer women were pregnant-a sub-
stantial success in any short-term effort to
check population growth. The Taichung
project demonstrated that, at least in a
setting where literacy Is relatively high and
medical clinics are available, a well-orga-
nized effort will generate its own momentum
and produce significant results at a rea-
sonable cost, given a convenient and effective
contraceptive method. Plans are now being
made, with government support, to extend
throughout Taiwan the procedures devised
and tested in Taichung.
Such projects represent a significant be-
ginning. From them is emerging a back-
ground of knowledge and experience. And
in them we are training a growing number
of personnel, testing our technology and
formulating a strategy of approach. They
are the first steps on a long journey.
We have seen the seriousness of the popu-
lation problem, and some reasons that al-
low us to hope that we may eventually suc-
ceed in its solution. Now, we must ask our-
selves what is the measure of success. We
fumble for an answer. We fumble because
I believe that we, and others all over the
world, fail to recognize the population prob-
lem in its full and true dimensions. From
the days of Malthus, we have inherited a
tendency to- think that the successful solu-
tion lies in striking a healthy balance be-
tween numbers of people and quantities of
food. To, the difficult question of how much
is enough, this allows a simple answer. But
too often it is a wrong one, because it equates
man with animal and food with fodder.
The population problem is not one of two
dimensions, but of three. The third di-
mension touches the very essence of human
life-man's desire to live as well as to sur-
vive.
We may, in days to come, bring more acres
under cultivation and vastly increase the
yield of each acre. We may reap unimagined
harvests from our oceans. We may at last
free all mankind from hunger. But even
this, I maintain, is not enough.
Man is more than animal, and the needs
of his life are far more than bread alone.
There are the precious intangibles that make,
life worth living, that give life quality. There
is knowledge, for one, and the satisfaction.
earned by well-used leisure. There is the
quiet joy of appreciation of nature and art,
and the abiding strength that comes from
moral and spiritual values.
Human needs such as these go far beyond
the bare necessities, the creature comforts,
mere material resources. They are the third
dimension of which I speak. The opportu-
nity to fulfill these needs for himself and
for his children should be every man's birth-
right. Every man deserves at least the chance
to lead a life of satisfaction and purpose,
to achieve in life more than mere survival.
THE HIGH COST OF GROWTH
This emphasis on the quality of life is,
for us in this favored land, the heart of the
matter. Unchecked population growth will
ultimately place this third dimension beyond
our reach, even in America. Indeed, it can be
demonstrated that "it can happen here"--
and is happening. By thousands of small,
seemingly insignificant inroads, the growth
of population is eroding what we have come
to know as "the American way of life."
For illustration, examine but a few of the
consequences of population growth. Con.
eider our land itself. It stretched before the
eyes of our forefathers In vast, unexplored
reaches. The wealth of Its resources was un-
imaginable, its westward horizons unlimited.
Once we beckoned immigrants to help us
settle the land. The Northwest Ordinance
and the Homestead Act were milestones of
national policy designed to put land into the
hands of the people. Today, we hold back
the immigrant while we strive for a broader
policy of conservation. We seek now not to
sell land to the people, but to buy it from
them; not to promote its use, but to protect
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