CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE USSR

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• Publication Date: June 1, 1965
• Content Type: REPORT

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89th Congress
1st Session
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FOR THE U.S.S.R.
MATERIALS PREPARED FOR THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
46-272 WASHINGTON : 1965
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.B. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C., 20402 - Price 55 cents
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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri
HALE BOGGS, Louisiana
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin
MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS, Michigan
THOMAS B. CURTIS, Missouri
WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey
ROBERT F. ELLSWORTH,'IKansas
SENATE
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
J. W. FULBRIGHT, Arkansas
WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin
HERMAN E. TALMADGE, Georgia
JACOB K. JAVITS, New York
JACK MILLER, Iowa
LEN B. JORDAN, Idaho
JAMES W. KNOwLES, Executive Director
JOHN R. STARK, Deputy Director
MARIAN T. TRACY, Financial Clerk
HAMILTON D. GEWEISR, Administrative Clerk
WILLIAM 11. MOORE
GERALD A. POLLACK
NELSON D. MCCLUNG
DONALD A. WEBSTER (Minority)
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JUNE 23, 1965.
To Members of the Joint Economic Committee:
Transmitted herewith for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
and other Members of Congress is a compilation of statistical materials
and interpretative airticles entitled "Current Economic Indicators for
the U.S.S.R." These materials will make up a successor volume to
last year's study on the same subject. They are made available to
the members of the Joint Economic Committee as a continuation of
the studies which appeared in December 1962 under the title "Dimen-
sions of Soviet Economic Power."
The committee is grateful to the Government departments and
organizations for their assistance, as well as to the individual scholars
who prepared various sections of this volume, and to the Research
Analysis Corp. for permitting its staff members to help us in the study.
It should be clearly understood that the materials contained herein
do not necessarily represent the views of the committee nor any of
its individual members.
WRIGHT PATMAN, Chairman.
JUNE. 21, 1965.
IIOn. WRIGHT PATMAN,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee,
Congress of the United States, Washington, D.C.
DEAR MR. CHAIRMAN: Transmitted herewith is a compendium of
statistical data and interpretative comment entitled, "Current Eco-
nomic Indicators for the U.S.S.R."
This volume, which is a successor to the report on the same subject
published in February 1964, reflects the committee's continuing
interest in verifiable facts and scholarly interpretation of current
economic developments in the U.S.S.R. These periodic statistical
reviews, in turn, are intended to supplement the analytical materials
published in the Joint Economic Committee's December 1962 study
entitled, "Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power."
In light of our experience in publishing the 1964 volume, certain
changes have been made in the present study, particularly in regard
to the introduction of more narrative materials to go along with the
statistical data presented in each chapter. In addition, the present
volume includes an introductory essay summarizing the main findings
of the component chapters.
The individual chapters of the present study were prepared for the
committee by a number of professional experts in this field of research
who have given generously of their valuable time and specialized
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IV LETTERS OF TRANSMITTAL
knowledge. The committee is indebted in particular to the following
individual contributors for the praiseworthy job they have done:
James W. Brackett. Ferdinand F. Pirhalla.
Stanley G. Brown. Seymour M. Rosen.
Stanley H. Cohn. Timothy Sosnovy.
Norton T. Dodge. Joseph Watstein.
Murray Feshbach.
In this connection, the committee is most grateful to the following
departments of the Government for having made their specialists
available for this project: The Departments of Commerce; Agricul-
ture; Health, Education, and Welfare; the Bureau of the Census;
and the Library of Congress. For the same reason, the committee
also wishes to express its gratitude to the Research Analysis Corp. of
McLean, Va.; and the University of Maryland.
The present study was planned and coordinated by Leon M. Her-
man, senior specialist, Soviet economics, Legislative Reference Service,
Library of Congress, to whom the committee feels particularly in-
debted for the high standards and patience he has brought to the
present undertaking.
The initial work on behalf of the committee staff was handled by
William H. Moore, senior economist, and the subsequent super-
vision of the completion and editing of the volume was handled by
John R. Stark, deputy director.
JAMES W. KNOWLES,
Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee.
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CONTENTS
Paco
Letters of.transmittal --------------------------- -----
III
------------
INTRODUCTION. The Soviet economy in 1963__________________________ 1
A. Slowdown in the rate of economic growth______________1
1. Gross national product -------_-_I
Comparative per capital dollar value of GNP, 1963 (table) - _ 1
2. Investment trends -------------------------------------- 3. Agriculture----------------------------------- 2
4. Industrial production---------------- 2
Annual rates of growth of civilian industrial output in the
U.S.S.R.(table)-------------------------------------- 3
5. Defense expenditures------------------------------- ---- 3
6. Consumption levels------------------------------------- 4
Estimated stocks of consumer's durables at end of 1963
(table) _ _ 5
7. Population, employment and labor productivity ------------ 6
8. Foreign trade------------------------------------------- 6
B. The search for higher levels of economic efficiency -------------- 6
1. Discontent of the leadership ------------------------------ 6
2. Prospective economic reforms----------------------------- 8
CIZAPTER I. Trends in Soviet Gross National Product_______________ 11
Summary I1
Comparative growth performance-------------------------------- 12
Table I-1. Annual and. period growth rates of Soviet GNP----- 12
Table I-2. Comparative growth rates of gross national product- 13
Change in structure of production and the use of resources ---------- 13
Table 1-3. Comparative growth of onsumption and investment - 14
Factors affecting growth retardation ---------------15
Table 1-4. Employment and labor productivity as determinants in
comparative growth of GNP------------------------------ 15
Table M. Comparative incremental capital-output ratios ------ 16
Comparative size and future trend of GNP----------------------- 18
Table 1-6. Comparative dollar values of gross national product
in 1963 (market prices) ----------------------------------- 18
Table I-7. Comparative projections of GNP------------------ 19
Appendix:
Table 1. Annual origin sector growth rates for Soviet GNP ----- 20
Table 2. Composition of originating sector weights for 1959---_- 21
CHAPTER II. Population------------------------------------------- 23
General trends------------------------------------------------ 23
Projected population of school age and "college age"--------------- 24
Projected male population of military age------------- --------- 24
Projected population of the "able-bodied age"-------------------- 24
Tables:
II-1. Population of the U.S.S.R., by urban and rural residence,
selected years, 1913-65----------------------------------- 25
11-2. Birth, death, and natural increase rates for the U.S.S.R..,
selected ,years,1913-64----------------------------------- 26
11-3. Estimated and projected population of the U.S.S.R. and
the United States, selected years, 1913-85 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 26
11-4. Birth and death rates for the U.S.S.R. and the United
States, 1955-63------------- 27
II-5. Populations of cities in the U.S.S. It. with 1964 populations of
500,000 inhabitants or more, and of all Republic capitals,
1.939, 1969, 1963, and 1964________________________________ 27
II-6. Average family size in the U.S.S.R., by nationality and
urban and rural residence, 1959-------------- 28
11-7. Estimated and projected population of preschool age in
the U.S.S.R., 1959-85----------------------------- ------ 28
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Chapter II-Continued
Tables-Continued Page
11-8. Estimated and projected population of school age in the 29
U.S.S.R., 1959-85---------------------------------------
11-9. Estimated and projected population of college age in the 29
U.S.S.R., 1959-85 ---------------------------------------
Estimated and projected male population of military age in
the U.S.S.R., 1959-85 --------------------------- 30
II-11. Estimated and projected population of "able-bodied age"
in the U.S.S.R., 1959-85---------------- ----- 31
11-12. Estimated and projected population of "retirement age"
in the U.S.S.R., 1!)59-85--------------------------------- 32
11-13. Estimated and projected total population, components of
population change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex,
1950-85------------------------------------------------
----------- -- - 32
11-14. Estimated and projected population of the U.S.S.Ih, by
5-year age groups and sex, Jan. 1, 1959-85------------------ 38
CHAPTER III. Industry------,--------------------------------------- 45
A. Trends in output of industrial production, 1956-63------------- 45
U.S.S.R.: Average annual rates of growth of civilian industrial
output (table) --------------------------------------------
--------------------- - -
------------------ 45
B. Factors in the industrial slowdown____________________________ 45
Tables:
III-1. U.S.S.R.: Production of selected industrial commodities,
1959, 1963, and 1965 plan -------------------------------- 46
111-2. Production of major chemicals in the U.S.S.R., 1955 and
1959--63, plan for L965, and United States, 1963 (unclassified)-- 47
New Soviet chemical program --------------------------- 47
111-3. Production of consumer goods in the U.S.S.R., 1955 and
1959-63, and in the United States, 1963____________________ 48
111-4. Production of selected metals in the U.S.S.R., 1955,
1959-63, and 1965 plan, and in the United States, 1963 ------ 49
111-5. Production of selected fuels in the U.S.S.R., 1955 and
1959-63, and in the United States, 1963____________________ 49
111-6. U.S.S.R.: Indexes of civilian industrial production, 1955
and 1959-63-----?--------------------------------------- 50
111-7. U.S.S.R.: Annual rates of growth in industrial production,
1959-63------------------------------------------------- 50
CHAPTER IV. Investment-------------------------------------------- 51
Tables:
IV-1. U.S.S.R.: Gross fixed investment, by function, 1955 and
1959-63------------------------------------------------ 52
IV-2. U.S.S.R.: Index of gross fixed investment, by function,
1955 and 1959-63------------------------ - ---------- 52
IV-3. U.S.S.R.: Annual rates of growth of gross fixed investment,
by function, 195#-63------------------------------------- 53
IV-4. U.S.S.R.: Productive gross fixed investment, by sector,
1955 and 1959-63---------------------------------------- 53
IV-5. U.S.S.R.: Index of productive gross fixed investment, by
sector, 1955 and 1959-63--------------------------------- 53
IV-6. U.S.S.R.: Annual rates of growth of productive gross fixed
investment, by sector, 1959-63---------------------------- 54
CHAPTER V. Agriculture-------------------------------------------- 55
Agriculture in the United States and U.S.S.R--------------------- 55
Tables:
V-1. Agricultural resources_________________________________ 56
V-2. Farm numbers and size, 1963-------------------------- 56
V-3. Crop acreage,,1963----------------------------------- 57
V-4. Yields per acre of major crops, 1963____________________ 57
V-5. Crop production, 1963________________________________ 58
V-6. Livestock numbers, 1.964------------------------------ 58
V-7. Production of livestock commodities, 1963 --------------- 59
V-8. Area of major grains, 1955-59 average, 1963------------- 59
V-9. Yields of major grains, 1955-59 average, 1963------------ 60
V-10. Production of major grains, 1955-59 average, 1963 ------- 60
V-11. Soviet Union: Production of five major grains and total
grain, USDA estimates and official Soviet estimates 1958-64_- 61
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CHAPTER VI. Employment----------------------------------------- 63
Tables :
VI-1. Population, labor force, and employment, U.S.S.R., 1958-
65 65
----------------------------------------------------
VI-2. Civilian employment, by socioeconomic category, U.S.S.R.,
selected years, 1940-64----------------------------------- 67
VI-3. Workers and employees, by branch of the national economy, 70
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1928-64--------------
VI-4. Workers and employees, by branch of the national econo-
my, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1928-64---------------------- 71
VI-5. Industrial-production personnel and wage workers, by
branch of industry, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-63 -------- 74
VI-6. Average number of days and hours worked in industry by
wage workers, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1928-63------------- 80
VI-7. Soviet comparisons of physical output per production
worker in selected industries, United States and U.S.S.R., 82
selected years, 1939-59--------------
VI-8. Measures of collective farm employment, U.S.S.R., 83
selected years, 1937-63----------------------------
VI-9. Employment in the private agricultural economy, by sub-
sector, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-64----------- ------- 86
VI-10. Civilian employment in the United States, by major
employment categories, selected years, 1940-64-------------- 87
VI-11. U.S.S.R. and U.S. employment, by nonagricultural and
agricultural sectors, selected years, 1940-64----------------- 89
VI-12. Adjustment of U.S.S.R. civilian employment to corre-
spond to U.S. nonagricultural and agricultural sectors, selected 90
years, 1940-63-----------------------------------------
CHAPTER VII. Female employment---------------------------------- 91
Introduction--------------------------------------------------91
Changes in the sex ratio of the Soviet population------------------ 91
High rates of female participation in the labor force---------------- 92
Family versus work--------------------------------------------92
Women's share in the labor force-------------------------------- 93
Rising quality of the female labor force-------------------------- 93
Training of women professionals-------------------------------- 94
A majority of professionals are women--------------------------- 95
Importance of women scientific workers__________________________ 95
Advancement of women ---------------------------------------- 96
Tables:
VII-1. Males per 100 females in the population of Russia and the
Soviet Union, selected years, 1897-1980-------------------- 97
VII-2. Population of "working age" in Russia and the Soviet
Union, selected years, 1897-1980-------------------------- 97
VII-3. Percentage of females in the population of the U.S.S.R.
by socioeconomic category and age group, January 15, 1959-- 98
VII-4. Distribution and percentage of women collective farmers
employed primarily in physical labor in agriculture, by occupa-
tion, 101
January 15, 1959---------------------
VII-5. Number and percentage of women workers and em-
ployees, by branch of the economy, selected years, 1929-62--_ 102
VII-6. Percentage of women wage workers by branch of industry, 104
selected years, 1913-62----------------------------------
VII-7. Level of education of the employed population by social 106
group and sex, in 1959-------------
VII-8. Women holding doctoral and candidate degrees in 1950
and 1959-61-------------------------------------------- 106
},'II-9. Women enr-,'led in secondary specialized educational
institutions (excluding correspondence students), by field, at
the beginning of the academic year--------------- ------- 107
VII-10. Number and percent of women among day and evening
students enrolled in Soviet higher educational institutions, by 108
field, 1926-37, 1940, 1950, and 1955-61-------------------
VII-11. Number and percent of female graduate students at end
of calender year, miscellaneous years, 1929-61-------------- 109
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CHAPTER VII-Continued
Tables-Continued
VII-12a. Women specialists with a secondary specialized educa- Pags
tion employed in the economy, by specialty, 1955-57, 1959-63_ 110
VII-12b. Distribution of women specialists with secondary
specialized education employed in the economy, by specialty,
1955-57,1959-63---------------------------------------- 110
VII-12c. Percentage of women of all specialists with secondary
specialized education employed in the economy, by specialty,
1955-57,1959-63 ----------110
VII-13a. Women specialists with a higher education employed in
the national economy, by specialty, 1941, 1954-57, 1959-63-- 111
VII-13b. Distribution of women specialists with a higher educa-
tion employed in the economy by specialty, 1941, 1954-57,
1959-63------------------------------------------------ 111
VII-13c. Women specialists with a higher education employed
in the national economy, 1941, 1954-57, 1959-63 ------------ 112
VII-14. Number of women scientific workers----------------- 113
VII-15. Women scientific workers having academic titles in
higher educational institutions and research institutions in
1950, 1955, and 1960________________ 113
VII-16. Women scientific workers in higher educational insti-
tutions in 1950, 1955, and 1960____________________________ 114
VII-17. Women scientific workers in scientific research institu-
tions, enterprises, and other organizations, 1950, 1955, and
1960------------------------ 115
VII-18. Percentage of women administrators and teachers in
elementary and secondary schools of the Ministry of Educa-
tion and Ministry of Transportation, 1940-41, 1950-51,
1955-56,1958-64 --------------------115
VII-19. Number of women physicians and their percentage of
the total for selected years, 1913-63 ----------------------- 116
Figures:
VII-I. U.S.S.R. population and employment pyramids in 1959_ 99
VII-2. Age distribution of the male and female labor force
aged 15 to 59 in 1959------------------------------------ 100,
CHAPTER VIII. Comparisons of consumption_______________
---------- 117
Preface to tables----------------------------------------------- 119
Tables:
VIII-1. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Total consumption per capita, 1950
and 1955-63------------------------ --------- 119
VIII-2. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Consumption per capita by major
product and service group, 1950 and 1955-63 -------------- 119
VIII-3. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Consumption per capita by product
or service group, 1955-------------------------------- 120
VIII-4. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Availability of food products for hu-
man consumption by major food group, selected years-------- 121
VIII-5. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Estimated stocks of consumers'
durables at the end of selected years, 1955-63 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 121
VIII-6. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Health services at the end of selected
years, 1950--63------------------------------------------ 122,
VIII-7. U.S.S.R. and selected Western European countries:
Consumption per capita by major product and service group.
1950, 1955, and 1962------------------------------------- 122
CHAPTER IX. Soviet budget-----------------------------------
Tables: 123
IX-1. U.S.S.R.: Revenues of the state budget, by budget
category, 1955 and 1959-63, actual receipts_________________ 124
IX-2. U.S.S.R.: Expenditures of the state budget, by budget
category, 1955 and 1959-63, actual outlays----------------- 124
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CHAPTER X. Education______________ - - -
Tables
X-1. Enrollment in schools and training, programs of various
types tit all levels, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1914-15 to 1963-64_ 126
X-2. Schools of general education of all types, number of schools,
enrollment, and number of teachers, U.S.S.R., 1950-51,
1958-64------------------------------------------------ 126
X-3. Primary, 7-year, 8-year, and complete secondary schools,
number of schools, enrollment, and number of teachers,
U.S.S.R., 1952-53, and 1958-59 to 1962-63 ---------- 127,1963-64
X-4. Higher and secondary specialized educational institutions,
number of schools, and enrollment by type of instruction,
U.S.S.R., 1952-53 and 1958-59 to 1962-63, 1963-64 --------- 127
IX-5. Enrollment in secondary specialized educational institutions,
-;by groups of specialities, U.S.S.R., 1952-53 and 1958-59 to
1962-63,1963-64 ---------------------------------------- 127
X-6. Enrollment of primary, 7-year, 8-year and complete second-
ary schools by class grouping, U.S.S.R., 1950-51, 195.8-64---- 128
X-7. Schools for workers, peasant youth, and adults, U.S.S.R.,
1950-,51,1958-64 -------------------------------- ------ 128
X-8. Nursery schools-number of schools, enrollment, and num-
ber of teachers and principals, U.S.S.R., 1027-63---------- 128
X-9. Distribution of elementary 7-year, 8-year, and secondary
school teachers according to educational rank and length of
service in pedagogical work, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950-51,
1963--64----------------------------------------- ------ 129
X-10. Distribution of teachers in classes 5-8 and 9-11, including
directors, directors of studies, and persons in charge of instruc-
tion according to specialties and level of education at the
beginning of the 1963-64 school year, U.S.S.R--------------- 130
X-11. The number of women teachers in elementary, 7-year,
8-year, and secondary schools, U.S.S.R., selected years,1950-51,
1963-64------------------------------------------------ 131
X-12. Admissions to secondary specialized educational instruc-
tions by type of instruction, and admissions and graduations
by branch group of educational institutions, U.S.S.R., 1962,
1958-63------------------------------------------------ 131
X-13. Graduations of specialists from higher and secondary
specialized institutions according to type of instruction,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940, 1950, 1958, 1060-63---------- 132
X-14. The number of graduations of specialists from higher and
secondary specialized educational institutions, U.S.S.R.,
1918-63------------------------------------------------ 132
X-15. Graduations of specialists from secondary specialized edu-
cational institutions, by groups of specialties; U.S.S.R., selected
years, 1950, 1958, 1960-63-------------------------------- 133
X-16. Total state budget expenditures and expenditures budg-
eted for enlightenment, U.S.S.R., 1955 and 1958-63 --------- 134
X-17. Number of higher educational institutions and enrollment,
U.S.S.R., 1914-15 and 1922-23 to 1963-64 ------------------ 135
X-18. Enrollment in higher education, by type of instruction.,
U.S.S.R., 1940-63--------------------------- -------- 135
X-19. Enrollment in higher education, by groups of specialties,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950-64-------------------------- 136
X-20. Persons with higher and secondary (complete and in-
complete) education, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1959 and 1964__ 137
X-21. Persons with higher and secondary education (complete
and incomplete) per 1,000 inhabitants, U.S.S.R., selected
years, 1939, 1959, and 1964 ------------------------------- 137
X-22. Women students as percent of total enrollment in higher
education, by main areas, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1927-63,
1963-64------------------------------------------------ 137
X-23. Admissions to higher educational institutions, by type of
instruction, U.S.S.R., 1940-41, and 1945-46 to 1962-63,
1963-64----------------------------- ------------------ 138
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Chapter X-Continued
Tables-Continued
X-24. Number and percent of admissions to higher educational
institutions by branch group of institutions, U.S.S.R., selected Page
years, 1940 to 1964-------------------------------------- 138
X-25. Number and percent of graduations of specialists from
higher educational institutions, by branch group, U.S.S.R.,
selected years, 1940-63 ----------------------------------- 138
X-26. Graduations of specialists from higher educational insti-
tutions by groups of specialties, U.S.S.R., selected years,
1950-63------I------------------------------------------ 139
X-27. Enrollments of aspirants (graduate students), by type
of instruction, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-63------------- 140
X-28. Number of graduations of aspirants (graduate students),
by type of instruction, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-63 ------ 140
X-29. Enrollment of aspirants (graduate students) by branches
of study, U.S.S.R., 1950, 1960-63 (at end of year) ----------- 141
X-30. The number of scientific workers, U.S.S.R., selected years,
1950, 1958, and 1960-63---------------------------------- 142
X-31. The composition of scientific workers according to degrees
and rank (or title) in U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950, 1958, 1960-
63----------------------------------------------------- 142
X-32. Distribution of scientific workers by branches of specializa-
tion, U.S.S.R., 1963----------------------------------------- 142
X-33. The composition of women among scientific workers,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950, 1958, and 1960-63 ------------ 142
CHAPTER XI. Urban facilities and housing____________________________ 143
Tables :
XI-1. Population growth of seven Soviet cities following ap-
proval of resolution to prohibit building of new enterprises - __ 143
X-2. Actual city population as planned for 1975 and as reported
for 1963------------------------------------------------ 144
XI-3. Capital investment in the national economy of the
U.S.S.R. and in the public housing sector, 1918-64 ---------- 144
XI-4. Five-year plan goals for housing construction in the
public sector and actual fulfillment, 1928-63 -------------- 145
XI-5. Housing fund in the urban communities of the U.S.S.R.
at the end of the year, 1926-63 ------------------------------- 145
XI-6. Urban population growth and living space per capita in
the U.S.S.R., 1923-63------------------------------------ 146
XI-7. Per capita living space (square meters) in 27 large cities,
1926, 1956, and 1963 ------------------------------------ 146
XI-8. Apartment size in cities and workers' settlements, 1957-63_ 147
XI-9. Density of occupancy per room in urban communities of
the U.S.S.R. in 1923, 1926, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1961, 1962, and
1963--------------------------------------------------- 147
XI-10. Occupancy of small-size apartments in 1958-59 ------ 147
XI-11. Urban population provided with municipal utilities, 1927,
1939, and 1956------------------------------------------ 148
CHAPTER XII. Transportation______________________________________ 149
Tables:
XII-1. Growth of freight traffic in the U.S.S.R., by type of
carrier, 1955, 1959-63, and 1965 plans---------------------- 149
XII-2. Value and volume indexes of the growth of total freight
traffic in the U.S.S.R., 1955, 1959-63, and 1965 plans ------ 150
CHAPTER XIII. Foreign trade --------------------------------------- 151
Highlights of recent developments in the foreign trade of the U.S.S.R__ 151
Soviet foreign trade turnover, 1958-63 (table)________________ 151
A. Recent trends in trade volume___________________________ 151
B. Geographic pattern of Soviet foreign trade----------------- 152
Geographic distribution of Soviet foreign trade (table) ----- 152
C. Commodity structure___________________________________ 153
1. Exports-------------------------------------------- 153
2. Imports-------------------------------------------- 153
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XI
Chapter X111-Continued
Highlights of recent developments, etc.-Continued
D
Th
page
.
e pattern of Soviet trade by region---------------------
1
T
153
.
rade with Eastern Europe------------- --- ------
E
153
a.
xports--------------
S
153
oviet trade in machinery and equipment with
CEMA countries-1963 (table)----------------
b
I
154
.
mports--------------------
2. Trade with Chi
----------------
154
na ---------
--------------------------
3
T
d
155
.
ra
e with the industrial West----------------
4
T
d
155
.
ra
e with the less-developed countries -__------__.
E. Recent trends in Soviet trade ---
policy ---------------------
1
E
t
E
156
157
.
as
ern
urope------------------------- ------- -
2
Th
l
157
.
e new
y developing countries-----------------------
3. The industrial We
t
159
s
--------------------------- ---------------------------------
Tables:
159
XIII-1. Geographic distribution of Soviet foreign trade, 1955-
63------------- -----
XIII
2
C
161
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet exports, 1955, 1958-
63------------- ---
------------------------------------
XIII
3
C
162
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet imports, 1955, 1958-
63---------------------------
XIII
4
C
163
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet exports to European
satellites, 1955, 1958-63----------------------------------
XIII
5
C
164
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet imports from Euro-
pean satellites, 1955, 1958-63-----------------------------
XIII
6
C
165
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet exports to Com-
munist China, 1955, 1958-63------------------------------
XIII
7
C
166
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet imports from Com-
munist China, 1955, 1958-63------------------------------
XIII
8
C
167
-
.
ommodity composition of Soviet exports to the
industrial West, 1955, 1958-63 --------------------------
XIII
9
168
-
. Commodity composition of Soviet imports from the
industrial West, 1955, 1958-63---------------
XIII
169
-10. Commodity composition of Soviet exports to less
developed countries, 1955, 1958-63------------------------
XIII
170
-11. Commodity composition of Soviet imports from less
developed countries, 1955, 1958-63------------------------
XIII
170
-12. Trends in foreign trade between the U.S.S.R. and
selected free world countries, 1955, 1958-63-----------------
XIII
171
-13. Soviet imports from the underdeveloped countries,
1955, and 1959-63----------------
XIII
172
-14. Soviet exports to the underdeveloped countries, 1955,
and 1959-63 -----------------
XIII
15
173
-
. U.S.S.R. imports of chemical plants and equipment,
1955-63-------------------
XIII
174
-16. Total Soviet economic credits and grants extended to
non-Communist underdeveloped countries, January 1, 1954,
to December 31, 1964----------------
174
CHAPTER XIV. Economic indicators for the Soviet bloc ---------------
Tables:
175
XIV-1. Gross national product of the Sino-Soviet bloc, 1960-63
XI
175
V-2. Intrabloc trade as percentage of total trade by countries
of the Sino-Soviet bloc, 1963------------------------------
XI
175
V-3. Areas sown to principal crops in Sjno-Soviet bloc coun-
tries, 1963---------------------
XI
176
V-4. Harvest of selected crops in Sino-Soviet bloc countries,
1963---------------------------------
XIV-5
Si
177
.
no-Soviet intrabloc trade, 1963__________________
178
___
XIV-6. Production of selected basic commodities in Sino-Soviet
bloc countries, 1963--------------------------------------
X1 V
7
2
179
-
.
i oduc, ion of .:c1ectcd man ufactui ed products, 1963 _ _ _ _
180
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XII CONTENTS
BIBLIOGRAPHY Page
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF RECENT SOVIET MONOGRAPHS ---------------
181
Subject listing:
Background----------------------------------------------
Capital investment----------------------------------------
Communist Party-----------------------------------------
Cooperatives----------------------------------------------
Cost of production-----------------------------------------
Economy (general) ----------------------------------- --
Geography, urbanization, location of industry-----------------
Input-output---------------------------------------------
International comparisons----------------------------------
Labor----------------------------------------------------
Law-----------------------------------------------------
Level of living -------_-_ --------------------------------------------
National income, State budget, taxes------------------------
Planning ---------
----------------------------------------
Population and vital statistics -------------------------------
Prices----------------------------------------------------
Regional economy-----------------------------------------
Social insurance, social security-----------------------------
Statistics, accounting, mechanized data processing-------------
Trade unions-----------------------------------------
Wages---------------------------------------------------
183
183
184
185
185
185
186
187
188
188
190
192
192
192
193
194
195
196
197
197
listing:
Branch
Industry:
General-----------------------------------------------
198
Electric power----------------------------------------
199
Fuels------------------------------------------------
200
201
Machine-building and metalworking---------------------
202
Chemical---------------------------------------------
203
Construction materials---------------------------------
203
Logging, woodworking, and paper-----------------------
203
Light------------------------------------------------
204
Food------------------------------------------------
204
Construction----------------------------------------------
204
Agriculture-----------------------------------------------
205
Forestry ----------------------------
207
Transportation:
General----------------------------------------------
207
Railroad---------------------------------------------
208
Automotive-------------------------------------------
208
-------- --------------
Sea--------------------------------------------------
------------------------- -
208
River------------------------------------------------
208
Air--------------------------------------------------
209
Communications------------------------------------------
209
Trade and material-Technical supply_______________________
209
Housing-Communal economy------------------------------
210
Public health---------------------------------------------
210
Education-------- -- - - - - - --------------------------------
-
211
Science and scientific services-------------------------------
211
Banking-------------------------------------------------
2
11
Government----------------------------------------------
212
Armed Forces---------------------------------------------
--
2
13
213
Other--------------------------------------------------
215
Addendum--------------------------------------------------------
APPENDIX
Preliminary report on the performance of the economy of the U.S.S.R.
in 1964-------- ------------------------------------------------
21.9
Tables :
219
A-1. Industry--------------------------------------------
------------------
riculture
A
A-2
220
------
g
.
-----------------------------------
ort
Trans
A-3
220
p
.
--------
A-4. Other economic indicators-----------------------------
220
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INTRODUCTION
THE SOVIET ECONOMY IN 1963
A. SLOWDOWN IN THE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
The performance of the Soviet economy during 1963 was marked
by a sharp decline in the overall rate of growth, a decline that was
manifestly induced by the absolute drop in the output of the agricul-
tural sector. The gross national product of the country; i.e., the
indicator which measures the aggregate value of all goods and services,
increased somewhat in 1963, but the advance amounted to an abnor-
mally low rate of 2.6 percent, the lowest percentage of growth in
recent Soviet history. Five years earlier, in 1958, the annual growth
rate of the Soviet Union was 8.5 percent.
In terms of average rates of growth, as indicated in detail in chap-
ter I of the present study, the U.S.S.R. has recently slipped from
the second highest position among tlie leading industrial nations,
after West Germany to the filth position, below thi~t of France.
More recently, since 1961, in fact, the Soviet Union has fallen behind
the United States, as far as annual growth rates are concerned.
In dollar terms, the aggregate value of goods and services produced
in the U.S.S.R. in 1963 has been calculated in the present study (in
1963 market prices) at $265 billion, an amount equal to 46 percent of
the gross national product of the United States. In regard to its
overall output, in other words, the U.S.S.R. continues to hold its
position as the second largest economy in the world. In per capita
terms, however, its comparative position in 1963 was considerably
lower; namely, just barely ahead of Italy, as shown below:
Comparative per capita dollar value of GNP, 1963
[In 1063 market prices]
United States
-------------------------------------------
3,084
----------
France----------------------------------------------------------- 1,964
Germany (German Federal Republic) -------------------------------- 1, 858
United Kingdom-------------------------------------------------- 1,803
U.S.S.R---------------------------------------------------- --- 1,178
Italy-------------------------------------------------------------1,107
Japan----------------------------------------------------------- 907
The steady decline in the tempo of economic expansion in the
U.S.S.R. during the past 5 years may be traced, in large part, to a
sharp drop in the rate of growth in the allocation of new capital
investment. As measured by the broad indicator of "fixed invest-
ment," the annual rate of growth of new capital investment had been
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proceeding at an average of 10.8 percent during 1951-58. However,
in the course of the subsequent 5-year period (1959-63) new capital
was plowed into the economy at an incremental rate of 7.1 percent
per annum. Moreover, for the most recent period, 1961-63, the
investment effort slackened off still further, showing an annual average
growth rate of only 4.7 percent; 6.7 percent if new housing is excluded.
In regard to investment, too, the year 1961 was something of a
turning point in the recent economic history of the U.S.S.R. In that
year, as shown in considerable detail in chapter IV of our study, a
sharp decline began to manifest itself in the rate of growth of new
construction activity which remained almost unchanged during the
following 2 years. By comparison, it should be noted, the volume
of construction grew at an annual rate of nearly 14 percent during
1956-60.
One major factor responsible for the low growth rates in industrial
investment since 1961 has been the dislocation resulting from the
recent well-publicized effort on the part of the political authorities to
carry out a major shift in the industrial structure in favor of such
"progressive," growth-inducing branches as the chemical, petro-
chemical, and electronics industries. Beyond that, however, the
lower trends in investment growth of the past few years reflect the
diversion of resources to other programs, including various research-
intensive equipment, for the military establishment and for space
exploration.
3. AGRICULTURE
The year 1963 also witnessed a serious depression in the level of
agricultural output in the country. Grains were affected most
adversely by a widespread incidence of dry weather, with the result
that only 89.3 million metric tons of grain were harvested in 1963, as
compared with 112 million tons produced in 1962. Wheat production,
in particular, declined by 26.5 percent from the level of the preceding
year.
In terms of yield, too, the Soviet farm economy performed poorly
in 1963. In wheat, for example, the yield per acre amounted to 9.2
bushels, which is equal to 36 percent of the amount of grain produced
per acre during the year in the United States; namely, 25.3 bushels.
The level of production of livestock commodities moved somewhat
erratically in 1963. Owing to a severe shortage of feed, which induced
distress slaughtering, meat went up slightly, while the output of milk
and eggs moved downward at a moderate pace. In comparison with
the level of output in the United States, production of the above four
major livestock commodities showed the following proportions in
1963; pork, 56 percent; beef and veal, 40 percent; milk (cows), 92
percent; eggs, 45 percent.
The industrial sector of the Soviet economy also witnessed a
notable decline in growth during the year 1963. Civilian production
increased by 6.6 percent over the preceding year, the smallest increase
of the postwar period. This marks the fourth consecutive year of
annual rates of expansion of less than 8 percent. By comparison, as
shown by the data below, the average annual increase in industrial
output during the fifties was about 10 percent.
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Annual rates of growth of civilian industrial output in the U.S.S.R.
Total industry --------------------------------------------------------
Industrial materials
Civilian machinery, including electronics_______________________
Nondurable consumer goods _____________________________________________
1956-59
average
9.7
9.6
12.4
7.4
196043
average
7.0
6.1
11. 5
3.9
The pattern of growth in recent years, as may be expected, has
been fairly uneven. By viewing developments over the two most
recent 4-year periods it is possible to observe that the officially favored
branches of industry continue to be maintained more or less in the
style of growth to which they had become accustomed over the dec-
ades. Accordingly, the average annual rate of increase declined from
one 4-year period to the other, as illustrated above, by nearly a half
for nondurable consumer goods, while industrial materials lost about
a third of its earlier growth rate. In the category of machinery and
electronics, by contrast, the decline in the rate of growth during the
second 4-year period was by less than 10 percent.
There are several factors that help to account for the slowdown in
the rate of industrial growth in the Soviet Union after 1959. To
begin with, as explained more fully in the chapters dealing with invest-
went arid industry, then; has been a sharp decline in industrial invest-
ment. Apart from that, there has been a shift in the allocation
pattern of new capital, a shift that has involved the assimilation of un-
familiar new technology. Lowered levels of output in agriculture have
also played a part in the reduced expansion of industry by shrinking
the available supply of industrial raw materials. Another negative
effect may be traced to the reduction in the length of the average
workweek from 46 hours in 1959 to 41 in 1961. In addition to the
above, industrial developments have been affected adversely by the
preemption of high quality resources by the military sector, at the
expense of investment of new plant and equipment for civilian industry.
As has often been the case in the past, the sharp decline in the rate of
increase in capital investment in the U.S.S.R., underway since 1960,
has been accompanied by a conspicuous rise in defense expenditures.
These two categories of expenditures have always been competing
claimants upon the resources of the domestic economy. Judging by
the evidence at hand, Soviet authorities have chosen to favor the de-
fense sector in recent years. This is indicated by the fact that explicit
defense outlays have risen by more than 10.5 percent per year between
1960 and 1963, from 9.3 to 13.3 billion rubles. In contrast, investment
has grown at a rate of only 4.7 percent during the same 3-year period.
In recent months, the question has often been raised in public
print as to whether the new leadership, which came to power in the
Soviet Union in October 1964, is likely to reduce military spending
in order to provide for a better supply of agricultural products and
consumer goods in the domestic economy. The fact most responsible
for this line of speculation has been the recent announcement by
Party Chieftain Brezhnev that the Soviet Government will spend
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4 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
$79 billion on the improvement of the agricultural economy during
the next 5-year plan (1966-70).
While the Soviet leaders have understandably avoided making
any direct commitment on so sensitive a subject as the pattern of
resource allocation, they have, since their accession to power, assured
the public that agriculture would be treated more generously than it
had been in the past.
It does not necessarily follow, however, that an increase in the
allocation of more capital to agriculture would make it necessary for
the Soviet authorities to cut back on their defense expenditures.
A close analysis of the new agricultural plan for 1966-70, as presented
by L. Brezhnev to the Central Committee on March 24, 1964, points
to the conclusion that the rulers of the U.S.S.R. can continue their
present intense effort in the sphere of military and space research
and development, as well as in the expansion and deployment of
advanced weapons system, without serious concern over the possible
adverse impact of this effort on the agricultural economy. The kind
of resources that are required to inject a higher level of productivity
into agriculture, e.g., tractors, trucks, farm machinery, construction
equipment, etc., no longer play a critical role in the modern defense
industry. If anything, a large diversion of production inputs of this
kind into agriculture would tend to impose a serious burden on the
conventional branches of heavy industry, i.e., the branches which
are both producers and consumers of this kind of mass-produced
equipment. Modern weapon systems, on the other hand, depend more
for their support and expansion upon the newer industries equipped
especially to produce electronics, automatic mechanisms, precision
instruments, and hand-tooled missiles of various kinds. They require,
in addition, highly trained scientists, design engineers, and unusually
skilled technicians of the kind that would not be, in the foreseeable
future, conceivably transferred to jobs in the mass production lines
of the farm machinery and automotive industries.
It is important to bear in mind, however, that the absolute volume
of new investment continues to be very high in the U.S.S.R. Only
the rates of new increments in annual capital allocations have declined
of late. In 1963, for example, the aggregate figure for new investment
in the U.S.S.R., amounted to 42.2 billion rubles, an enormous sum that
is fully equal, in dollars, to the amount allocated to investment in the
United States, although total consumption in the Soviet economy
is equal to only one-third of the value of goods and services consumed
in this country. Inevitably, therefore, the large outlays which the
Soviet Government makes annually on investment and defense
reduces severely the fund of resources available for consumption by
the population.
As compared with its own past, to be sure, per capita consumption
in the U.S.S.R. has increased substantially in recent years. In 1963,
for example, it had reached a level equal to 70 percent above that of
1950. This reflects an average increase of about 4 percent a year.
In comparison with the major Western nations, however, the
U.S.S.R. has failed to make any dramatic progress within the past
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dozen years. Thus, for example, in 1963 per capita consumption in
the U.S.S.R. amounted to less than 90 percent of that in Italy. In
respect to this important indicator, in other words, its position
relative to Italy remained the same as it was in 1950.
In comparison with the United States, too, the recent Soviet record
in per capita consumption has made little tangible relative progress.
True, in 1963 Soviet per capita consumption reached a level equal to
about 30 percent of that in the United States, whereas in 1950 it
amounted to some 20 percent of our level. However, most of the
gain made by the U.S.S.R., relative to the United States level, was
achieved by 1958. Since then, consumption per capita has grown at
about the same rate in both countries.
Apart from the difference in the aggregate volume of consumption,
as shown in the relevant chapter, there are a number of important
differences in the pattern of consumption in the two countries.
To cite one prominent difference: The share of starchy staples (grain
products and potatoes) continues to be distinctively large in the
U.S.S.R. It was larger in fact in the Soviet Union in 1962 than in the
United States more than a half century ago. In addition, as shown in
some detail in section VIII of this report, consumption of food per
capita in the U.S.S.R. remains unusually high relative to other
consumer goods to this day, reflecting a familiar social phenomenon;
namely, that in a country with a low level of earnings a large propor-
tion of the personal income of the population is devoted to food
expenditures. By comparison, nonfood products and personal
services absorb a smaller share of the consumer ruble. In fact, per
capita consumption in 1963 of most of these items in the U.S.S.R.
amounted to little more than 15 percent of that in the United States.
Estimated stocks of consumer's durables at end of 1963
[Units per 1,000 persons]
U.S.S.R. as
percent of
United States
Sewing machines
------------------------------------------
132
135
---
Radios
-----------------------------------------
190
974
---------------
Television sets
---------------------------------------------
53
318
---
Automobiles
-------------------------------------------
4
272
-------
erators
Refri
-----------------------------------------
23
288
g
--- -----
washing machines--------------------------------------------
36
216
Another distinctive feature of the Soviet pattern of consumption is
the high level of consumption of state .provided services such as health
and education. Their high priority in the allocation pattern reflects
the fact that such services are regarded by the Soviet Government as
falling under the heading of investment rather than consumption.
In housing, the improvements in the level of available space, rela-
tive to population, has slowed down in recent years. New additions of
urban dwelling space in 1963 amounted to 77.4 million square meters,
as against 82.8 in 1960. By way of comparison, living space per capita
in the U.S.S.R. in 1963 amounted to approximately 20 percent of that
available in the United States. In this respect, there was no measur
able improvement since 1950.
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't) URR EC~NOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
7. POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
Because of the severe wartime losses in population, actual as well as
potential, the Soviet Union has also had to contend with a less favor-
able manpower situation in recent years. In 1963, employment out-
side of agriculture increased by 2 million persons, as compared with
the addition of 4.2 million nonfarm wage earners made in 1961. As
far as the growth of the labor force as a whole is concerned, the rate of
new additions has declined as follows: from an average rate of 1.9
percent for the period 1950-58 to an average of 1.4 percent during the
next 5 years (1958-63).
This downward trend reflects (a) the delayed effect of the low birth
rate of the wartime period and (b) the absence of any perceptible slack
for raising further still the high labor participation ratio of the Soviet
population, which is already quite high.
Another setback to the Soviet drive for rapid economic growth
came in the form of a slowdown in the advancement of labor produc-
tivity. In the earlier of the two periods, under review here, Soviet
performance in the sphere of labor productivity growth ranked very
high, just below that of Germany. Specifically calculated in chapter
I of this study, the average rate of growth in Soviet labor productivity
measured 5.0 percent per year during 1950-58. During the sub-
sequent 5-year period, however, labor productivity in the U.S.S.R.
advanced at a much reduced average rate; namely 3.1 percent. Thus,
the deterioration in the growth rate of Soviet productivity perform-
ance was the most pronounced among the major economies compared
in this report.
In its commerce with other nations, the Soviet Union has maintained
a fairly steady rate of expansion in recent years. Total trade turn-
over [exports plus imports] rose by 6 percent in 1963, reaching a level
of $14.3 billion. At that level it was equal to 35 percent of the dollar
value of the foreign commerce of the United States. In comparison
with the other major trading nations of the world, the U.S.S.R. now
ranks fifth ix line, behind France and slightly ahead of Canada.
Viewed over the past 10-year period, the annual value of Soviet
foreign trade expanded by 150 percent; in part, at least, as a result of
(a) the return of the U.S.S.R. to its traditional markets in Western
Europe and (b) its more active involvement in commodity exchanges
with the newly developing countries. Still, the strong preference for
trading with other Communist nations remains in effect. In 1963,
as in preceding years, 70 percent of all Soviet trade transactions were
completed with trade partners within the Communist world.
B. THE SEARCH FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
1. DISCONTENT OF THE LEADERSHIP
The loss of economic momentum during the past 3 to 5 years has
produced a mood of serious self-examination among policymakers and
economic experts alike in the U.S.S.R. By 1962, there was very little
left of the buoyant optimism over economic prospects which pervaded
official Soviet opinion during the mid-fifties.
Even before the shock of the depressed harvest of 1963 had spread
through the society as a whole, Soviet leaders began to voice com-
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CURRENT EC 0
plaints about the qualitative and dynamic aspects of their production
system. They have complained, in general, about the failure of their
planners and managers to make more effective use of the vast array
of economic resources at their disposal. They have complained, in
particular, about the declining yield in added output from new capital
investment; about the all-too-slow growth of labor productivity; about
the neolect of modern branches and processes of production; about the
general indifference among the nation's plant managers to new, better,
and cheaper materials; about the general resistance to innovation at
the enterprise level; and about the deep-seated bureaucratic tendency
on all levels of operation to rely on established, routine methods of
manufacturing and distribution.
In one of his memorable addresses dealing with the problem of
economic planning, delivered in November 1962, former Premier
Khrushchev gave vent, in great detail, to the long pent-up discontent
of the party hierarchy with the level of efficiency in the Soviet econ-
omy. He was especially critical of the pervasive lethargy among
Soviet planners, administrators, and plant managers with respect to
.new, more efficient ideas and processes in the country's industrial
plant. He was beginning to wonder, he declared, "whether this
proves our inability to utilize technical progress."
An important reason for the loss of self-confidence among Soviet
economic authorities is the fundamental fact that the economy of the
U.S.S.R. has been growing bigger but not better. About a decade ago,
official Soviet spokesmen were wont to cite as evidence of a consider-
able potential reserve for their own economic progress the fact that
the country's industrial labor force was still well below its optimal
size. Now, however, this particular reserve has been exhausted.
Industrial employment in the U.S.S.R. is now beyond the proportion
once considered optimal by Soviet economists; namely, 8 to 10 percent
of the country's total population. In 1963, in fact, Russia's industrial
manpower numbered 25 million persons, i.e., a figure larger by 40
percent than the 18 million that make up the industrial labor force
of the United States. Yet, even according to their own undocumented
claim, Soviet industry turns out a total annual product that is 35
percent lower than the aggregate U.S. industrial output.
In short, the continued annual recruitment of ever more new labor
numbers into industry does not seem to be sufficient to alter the
lagging relative position of the U.S.S.R. as an industrial producer.
If anything, the mechanical practice of feeding a maximum of addi-
tional labor into the favored branches of production has tended to
minimize the pressure for more efficient methods of labor utilization
and, therefore, to delay progress in the critical area of labor produc-
tivity.
These practical difficulties arising from the low efficiency of new
capital and labor inputs have generated a widespread discussion
among academic economists and economic administrators in the
U.S.S.R. aimed at a thoroughgoing reform of existing economic
policies and practices. This officially sponsored discussion has been
consciously directed toward a search for higher standards of produc-
tion efficiency. In practical terms, as recently explained by Premier
Kosygin in his address of December 9, 1964, to the Supreme Soviet,
this discussion is expected to result in the discovery of new ways and
means of "obtaining maximum results at minimum expenditure of
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tS CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
labor and material, based on high labor productivity and % high
scientific and technical standard of production." Unless a "sub-
stantial change for the better" is achieved in this regard, Kosygin
warned, it will be impossible to attain the party's declared goal of
"an increase in the rate of growth of the national economy and the
channeling of more resources toward raising the well-being of the
people."
2. PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC REFORMS
With the ouster of Khrushchev and the coming to power of the
Brezhnev-Kosygin regime, public demand for economic reform in the
U.S.S.R., which began in 1962, entered a new, more authoritative
phase. The ideas that were presented in 1962.by a once obscure
Kharkov professor and subjected at that time to widespread criticism,
in the space of 2 years evolved to become the new orthodoxy of the
post-Khrushchev Soviet leadership.
"We shall proceed toward planning on the basis of orders placed
by consumers not only in industry producing consumer goods but
also in other branches of the national economy." With these words,
which were also addressed to the Supreme Soviet on December 9,
1964, Premier Kosygin announced the intention of the new Soviet
leadership to adopt many of the very un-Marxian ideas that have
come since 1962 to be associated with "Libermanism"-after Yevsey
G. Liberman, professor of economics at the Kharkov Engineering-
Economics Institute.
Liberman's main idea, which was first aired in Pravda in September
1962, affirms that the preparation by the central planners of detailed
assignments to be executed without question by the industrial enter-
prises tends to hamper rather than help the latter in their basic
effort to satisfy the needs of society. He proposed, therefore, that
the attainment of maximum profitability-profits divided by total
(fixed plus working) capital-rather than the physical fulfillment of
specific production tasks assigned by the planners be made the cri-
terion of enterprise performance. Under the operation of the profit
incentive, he argued, enterprises could be relied upon to search more
effectively for means of improving their economic performance than
under present bureaucratically determined plans.
Publication of Liberman's proposals raised a storm of discussion
in the Soviet press and resulted in the proliferation of many proposals
for further reforms. Other reforms proposed included adoption of
such capitalist ideas as quasi-markets, with centrally established
prices, to distribute output of both consumer and producer goods;
overhaul of wholesale prices; interest charges on the use of fixed and
working capital.
Resistance in the U.S.S.R. to the proposals-both ideological and
practical-is deep rooted. To a large extent these proposals were
held in abeyance by the Khrushchev leadership. Yet, the proposals
are designed to provide solutions to very real economic problems of the
U.S.S.R. The present system of management of resources is in-
efficient and wasteful. Quality of products is poor. Supply is badly
organized, which results in the creation of artificial scarcities. New
products and new technological processes are introduced only slowly.
Planning is grossly conceived, cumbersome, and prone to costly
mistakes.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATOR 0
These problems are not at all new to the leadership of the U.S.S.R.,
since they have often been the subject of official complaints since the
early 1930's. In recent years, however, they have become a matter of
urgency to the extent that the rate of growth of the economy has
slowed while the range of commitments has been expanding. It is
this slowdown that has increased the pressure for better management
of economic resources and stimulated the active quest of the new
Soviet leadership for economic reform.
Kosygin's statement to the Supreme Soviet calls for the gradual
extension in some form of a new production-marketing system based
on Liberman's ideas, the testing of which was initiated belatedly in
two garment enterprises by the Khrushchev leadership in July 1964.
The system provided for the two garment enterprises-Bol'shevichka
in Moscow and Mayak in Gorki-to determine their own plans for
volume, quality, and assortment of production on the basis of orders
from the trade network. By the same token, they were freed from
the routine of centrally allocated supply of material inputs other than
capital goods.
The enterprises in the experiment are subjected to two performance
criteria: first, the volume of output sold must be sufficiently large to
make full use of existing production capacity; and second, the cen-
trally established plan for profitability must be fulfilled (or over-
fulfilled). Decisions as to quality, amounts used, and inventories of
inputs, including number of workers employed, as well as the intro-
duction of new processing methods and new products, are left to the
enterprise director to be determined on the basis of (a) orders from the
trade network and (b) profitability of the work. The new system
makes no provision for significant changes in the prices of the plants'
products or inputs. Requests for purchases of capital goods and
plant expansion continue to be subject to review by central authority.
No provision is made for interest charges on fixed or working capital.
On October 20, 1964, shortly after the ouster of Khrushchev, the
U.S.S.R. Sovnarkhoz announced that the new system is to be ex-
tended to enterprises accounting for one-fourth of the output of
garments and footwear during 1965. Moreover, an additional test
of the system was scheduled to begin January 1, 1965, in five enter-
prises in Lvov-including two heavy industry enterprises. Presum-
ably the new system is to be extended, at some later date, to the
remaining enterprises producing consumer goods and, eventually, to
heavy industry as well.
Much work remains to be done to make the new system perform its
tasks effectively. Well-known defects, such as the continued practice
of central allocation of capital goods and the failure to adopt a capital
charge, remain within the specific provisions of the new system.
The elimination of irrational prices, upon which the system's effec-
tiveness depends, must also be carried out. Moreover, extensive
adoption of the system is likely to create difficult problems of integrat-
ing the sections using the new system with the remainder of the
economy. The outlook for the next few years is for continued pro-
posals, discussions, and controversy along with cautious experi-
mentation with novel and un-Marxian methods of economic decision-
making. Hence, no measurable improvement in the efficiency of
use of resources, or in the rate of growth of the economy, can be
expected from this source during the period.
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CHAPTER I
TRENDS IN SOVIET GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
SUMMARY
In 1963 Soviet GNP growth continued the declining trend evident
since 1958, thus exacerbating the policy dilemma of satisfying pro-
liferating demands on a tightening resource base. The abnormally
depressed 2.6-percent increase in 1963 reflected adverse agricultural
weather conditions and would have been close to 5 percent under nor-
mal circumstances. Shortfalls in agriculture compounded the shift
in the production structure from commodities to the services. From
1960 to 1963 both consumption and investment experienced sharply
reduced growth rates, while defense expenditures have risen dra-
matically. However, in 1963 and 1964 defense outlays leveled off and
the new regime has reiterated its pledges to the consumer and voiced
its desire to move the economy ahead at a more rapid rate.
Growth retardation can be largely explained in terms of reduced
percentage increments to the labor force and to sharply reduced labor
productivity increases. In the latter respect Soviet performance has
been notably poor in comparison with other major economies. Wor-
sened labor productivity performance can be in part initially explained
by the reduced rate of investment, but a more important factor has
been the sharply reduced rate of return on investment (higher capital-
output ratios). In this respect, too, the Soviet record by international
comparison has been particularly dismal. In turn, both the reduced
rate of investment and its falling efficiency can be ascribed to the
longer time required to assimilate the new technologies of chemicals,
oil and gas, and complex machinery and to the diversion of vital
scarce human and material inputs into production of sophisticated
weapons.
Soviet gross national product is somewhat less than half as large
as that of the United States and 2% times that of the major West
European economies, but on a per capita basis about three-eighths as
large as the United States and a third less than West Germany, France,
or the United Kingdom. The U.S.S.R.-U.S. ratio has not been
widened since 1961 and in absolute terms the U.S. margin has been
increasing since 1958. Soviet growth through 1970 will probably
average between 4.5 and 5.5 percent annually, about a percentage point
above the United States, but no higher than France or Italy and
much below that of Japan. Given these projections, the absolute
GNP differential between the U.S.S.R. and the United States will
continue to diverge. With a reduced growth rate the Soviet leader-
ship will face a major challenge in reducing to realistic dimensions the
simultaneous pursuit of increases in consumer welfare, rapid growth,
and maintenance of military parity with the United States. A desire
to minimize this overcommitment from a tightening resource base
11
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could further stimulate efforts to improve the efficiency of the opera-
tion of the economy with consequent far-reaching institutional reforms.
COMPARATIVE GROWTH PERFORMANCE
The basic economic dilemma of limited resources to meet burgeoning
requirements, which has plagued Soviet regimes in recent years, was
particularly acute in 1963. The new leadership, as indicated by their
public pronouncements and the 1965 state budget and plan, has
reaffirmed this vexation. Commitments have proliferated beyond
the simple Stalinist goals of rapid growth and a powerful conventional
military posture to include consumer welfare, growth based on new
technology, and parity with the United States in sophisticated
weaponry. In contrast, the wherewithal to sustain this expanded
array of priorities has worsened, both in terms of basic resource
availabilities and of the efficiency with which these resources have
been employed.
The long-term decline in the rate of growth of national produce
which ensued after 1958 has continued through the present (table
I- 1).
TA13LE I-1.Annual and period growth rates of Soviet GNP
[Percentages]
1958------------------------------------
1959-----------------------------
1960
1961----------------------------------
62---------------------------------
1963
8. 5
4.2
4.9
6.8
4.3
2.6
1950-56 average------------------------1 7.0
1958-63 average -------------_--------_-1 4.5
--------- -------------------------------
----------------------------------------
----------------------------------------
---------------------------------------- ------------
I For derivation of component origin sector growth rates see appendix table 1, and for derivation of sector
weights see appendix table 2.
Norf.-The 1964 estimates published by the Joint Economic Committee showed a considerably lower
growth rate for 1962. The revision this year is explained by recalculation of the agricultural production esti-
mate on the basis of more comprehensive information. The higher rate is also influenced by the substitution
of 1959 originating sector value added weights (see appendix, table 2) for the 1955 weights used last year.
The new weights reduce the weight of agriculture and hence the depressing effect on GNP of the decline in
agricultural output.
In no year since 1958 has the Soviet Union matched the annual
average growth rate it achieved in the 8 years prior to that date,
as indicated in table I-1. In terms of international comparisons it
has slipped from a position second only to West Germany among the
principal industrial powers in the period 1950- 58 to an average below
that of Japan, Italy, West Germany, and France during the subse-
quent 5 years (table 1-2). Moreover, since 1961 the U.S.S.R. has
also fallen behind the United States in its growth performance.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC' INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 13
TABLE 1-2.-Comparative growth rates of gross national product
[Percentages]
Period
(annual a
rates
verages)
U.S.S.R-------------------------------------
8.5
4.2
4.9
6.8
4.3
2.6
4.5
France--------------------------------------
2.5
2.8
7.3
4.3
6.3
4.3
5.01
Germany (Federal Republic)---------------
3.5
7.1
8.9
5.8
4.1
3.2
5.9'
Italy----------------------------------------
4.4
7.3
6.8
8.3
6.0
4.8
6.6
United Kingdom----------------------------
1. 0
3.6
4.5
3.3
.2
3. 5
3.0
Japan---------------------------------------
-.1
18.3
13.0
15.8
6.9
8.3
12. 5
United States-------------------------------
-1.2
6. 7
2.5
1.9
6.1
3.4
4,1
Sources: United States and Western European economies: OECD, Statistics of National Accounts, 1950-61,
Paris, 1964. OECD, General Statistics-National Accounts Supplement, Paris, 1964. Statistical Office of
the European Economic Communities, General Statistical Bulletin, No. 11. 1904. National Institute of
Economic and Social Research, National Institute Economic Review, November 1964, London. U.S. De-
partment of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, July 1964. United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Sta-
tistics, November 1064, p. 8.
Japan: Bank of Japan, Economic Statistics of Japan, 1961. Ministry of Finance, Quarterly Bulletin of
Financial Statistics, 1st quarter, fiscal year 1964.
U.S.S.R.-GNP. (Seo appendix, table 1.)
The trend of the last 2 years in the later period is below the long-
term trend as it has been heavily influenced by 2 years of unfavorable
weather. If weather factors are discounted and it is assumed that the
agricultural growth trend for 1958-61 would have prevailed under
normal conditions, the average annual rise in GNP would have been
close to 5 percent.
CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF PRODUCTION AND THE USE OF RESOURCES
The reduced pace of expansion has involved significant changes in
the structure of the Soviet economy, particularly from primary, but
also from secondary to tertiary production. If the 8 years prior to
1958 are contrasted with the 5 years following that year, the coin-
modity producing sectors (primary and secondary) of. the economy
have exhibited sharp decelerations while the service rendering sectors
(tertiary) have experienced higher growth. rates. (see appendix, table
1). Much of this shift can be explained by the evolution of the Soviet
economy to a more advanced level, but it has been compounded by
output shortfalls in agriculture with subsequent resource impacts on
raw material availabilities to industry.
Agriculture has yet to attain the output level set in 1961, while
the growth rate in industry has fallen from an average annual rate of
9 percent for the period 1950-58 to a rate of 7.5 percent since 1958..
In construction the rate of increase has been halved as resources have
been diverted away from investment and in transportation the rate is.
considerably less. By contrast the net outputs of the commerce and
services sectors have risen at accelerated tempos since 1958. The
decline in defense 2 and constancy in administrative services since
1958 has been more than offset by the rapid increase in educational
medical, housing, and especially scientific services.2
Available computations of official data do not permit so clear a
comparison of trends in the uses of GNP, but some significant changes
2 As used in the context of income originating, defense services pertain only to personnel expenditures.
Other elements of defense expenditure appear in other originating sector categories. Procurement is re-
flected in industrial production, research and some development in scientific services, and military con-
struction in the construction sector.
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Approved, CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
are apparent. The retardation in growth has led to lessened in-
creases in levels of consumption, half the rate in the period after 1958
of that experienced in the previous 8 years (table 1-3). This decline
is largely the result of stagnation in agricultural production with
the reduction in the rate of new housing construction contributing in
smaller measure. Since 1958 increases in Soviet per capita consump-
tion levels have been considerably below those of the three principal
continental economies whose consumers already enjoyed per capita
consumption levels nearly twice as high as their Soviet counterparts.3
In fact, the Soviet rate of improvement has only marginally exceeded
that of the United Kingdom and the United States (table 1-3) while
the level at per capita consumption in the United States remained
between three and four times that of the U.S.S.R.'
TABLE I-3.-Comparative growth of consumption and investment
[Average annual rates]
Consu
per c
mption
apita
Fix
invest
ed
ment
Nonres
invest
idential
ment
U.S.S.R----------------------
2. 5
10.8
7.1
12.5
8.9
France---
3.8
5.5
6. 5
4.5
6.6
Germany (Federal Republic) _-
5. 7
9.6
9.3
10.0
8.7
Italy__--
6.4
8.2
10.3
6.2
10.3
United Kingdom-------------
2.4
4.4
5.4
4.7
3.8
Japan I -----------------------
7.2
7. 7
19.9
(a)
(2)
United States_________________
2.3
1.3
5. 7
1.6
5.8
11953-58.
2 Not available.
Sources: Market economics-See table 1-2.
U.S.S.R.: Consumption (see table VIII-1); investment (see sources for construction index in table I-1).
At the same time there has been a sharp decline in the rate of
growth in new capital investment. In contrast, except for West
Germany where the drop was nominal, the rate of investment rose in
the market economies between the two periods. There has been an
actual decline in housing construction, largely the result of a sharp
curtailment in private housing authorizations. In recent years the
investment decline has been even more dramatic, the annual average
increment for 1961-63 being only 4.7 percent for all investment and
6.7 percent if housing is excluded.
Between 1960 and 1963 defense expenditures, as measured by the
imperfect indicator of the state budget, increased by more than 10.5
percent per year though in 1963 the increases has fallen to 4.7 percent.
Some rough notion of the change in emphasis in military efforts is
conveyed by reference to two previously cited originating sector trends.
Defense services, which refer in the income originating context only
to personnel expenditures, have been declining since the midfifties;
v.'::ile s~:enti i:. servlres, heavily oriented to defense support, have been
rising very rapidly. These two disparate trends reflect the shift in
military emphasis from mass armies to the research and developmental
activities essential for sophisticated weaponry.
3 Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Annual Economic Indicators for the U.S.S.R.,1964. Table
V111-5.
4 Ibid.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATOR 0
FACTORS AFFECTING GROWTH RETARDATION
Economic growth may be analyzed, as in the foregoing passages,
in terms of originating sectors or of uses of national product. It may
also be analyzed in terms of factor inputs into the productive process.
Most simply it can be expressed as the input of labor times the output
per unit of labor, usually designated as labor productivity. If suffi-
cient data is available, the labor productivity expression can be less
ambiguously replaced by other productive inputs-capital, education,
land, organization, and the like.
Beginning with the simplified approach, we note that part of the
explanation for the retardation in growth lies in a less favorable
manpower situation, the rate of increase having dropped to 1.4 from
1.9 percent in the earlier period (table 1-4). This trend reflects the
delayed effect of reduced wartime birth rates and the increasing
difficulty of further raising an already high labor participation ratio.
However, the U.S.S.R. is not conspicuous in such a trend with larger
declines in West Germany, Italy, and Japan without commensurate
effects on output. More striking has been the sharp deceleration in
labor productivity advancement, even if cyclical weather influences
are removed. In the earlier period Soviet productivity rowth per-
formance ranked at the top just below Germany's; in theater period
it was much below that of Japan and the large continental powers.
It moved in the opposite direction to that of all major industrialized
countries, except for Germany, with a considerably smaller decline.
TABLE I-4. Employment and labor productivity as determinants in comparative
growth of GNP
[Average annual rates]
U.S.S.R--------------------------
France-----
Germany (Federal -----
Italy ------------------------------
United Kingdom-----------------
Japan 2 ---------------------
United States---------------------
Employ-
ment
Produc-
tivity 1
Employ-
ment
Produc-
tivity 1
0
7
1.9
5.0
4.5
1.4
3.1
.
4
4
.4
4.0
5.0
.9
4.1
.
6
7
4
2
5.1
6.9
1.5
4.3
.
5
6
.
1.6
3.9
6.6
1.1
5.4
.
2
4
.4
1.9
3.0
2.5
.
1
6
1
2
0
4
12.6
1.3
11.1
.
2.9
.
1.0
.
1.9
4.1
1.5
2.6
1 Index of GNP: Index of employment expressed in man-years. No adjustment has been made for reduc-
tions in working hours. In the 2 time periods under consideration there was a larger reduction in annual
hours worked in manufacturing in the U.S.S.R., 13 percent (Narodnoe Khoziaistvo SSSR v 1962 Godu p? 488)
than in the other economies-France, 0.5; Germany, 7.8; United Kingdom, 2.5; and the United States
3.2 percent (OECD, Productivity Measurement Review, November 1962, P. 12).
2 Japanese working hours rose by 3.2 percent (Japan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Statistical Survey of
Japan, 1962,p. 11.). Therefore, in terms of man-hours Soviet productivity accomplishments are relatively
understated, but a precise adjustment cannot be made in the absence of information on hours of work in
nonmanufacturing occupations for most of the countries in the comparison.
Sources: GNP-See table 1-2.
Employment-Market economics: OECD, Manpower Statistics, 1950-62. United Nations, Monthly
Bulletin of Statistics, November 1964.
U.S.S.R.-See table VI-2 for civilian employment and appendix table 1, services sources, for military
employment.
An important factor in the decline in productivity advancement has
been the cited sharp drop in the rate of growth in new capital invest-
ment (table 1-3). However, the reduced investment growth rate does
not suffice to explain, the productivity deceleration, as there has been
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16 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS POR THE U.S.S.R.
a sharp reduction in the return on or efficiency of investment. The
economywide capital-output ratio has risen dramatically for the Soviet
Union in the post-1958 period (table I-5).5 In the period prior to
1958 the U.S.S.R., together with France and Germany, was enjoying
the highest return on its capital outlays. After 1958 the U.S.S.R.
found itself with the lowest return on its investment of any of the
major industrial powers.
TABLE I-5.-Comparative incremental capital-output ratios
U.S.S.R
France
Germany (Federal Republic)
-----------------------
Italy -------?-------------------------`------------
United Kingdom
Japan--------------------------
United States
3. 7
4.0
3.6
4.4
6.6
5. 0
7.0
8.0
3.5
5.0
3.5
6.1
2.6
4.9
() 4.6
3.9
12.3
(a)
4.5
9.6
3.5-
4.4
2.6
6.6
a
3.4
5 Increase in fixed nonhousing investment required to obtain a unit of increase in gross national product
per employee. A lag of a year between a unit of investment and of output has been assumed. Thus,
output for the period 1951-58 has been compared with investment for the period 1950-57. Similarly, out-
put for 1959-63 is compared with investment for 1958-62.
The lower the ratio the higher the return on investment or the lower the capital investment per unit of
output. The ratio is increased to the extent that unutilized productive capacity exists. Thus the ap-
parent decrease in the U.S. ratio in the later period reflects the utilization of capacity idled during the 1958
recession.
I Increase in fixed investment per employee required to obtain a unit of increase in industrial (manu-
facturing, mining, public utilities) production. The same lag is assumed as in the economywide comparison.
Not available.
Sources: See table I-3.
The sharply reduced efficiency of investment might be explained
by the dismal farm record of recent years, which has led to a high level
of inefficiently used productive capacity in agriculture and the con-
sumer goods industries. However, the agricultural inefficiency
hypothesis is nnilified if the same investment efficiency test is limited
to the industrial sector. While the return on industrial investments
was rising in five of the large market economies, in the U.S.S.R. the
amount of new investment required to produce additional output
doubled (doubled capital-output ratio) in the years after 1958.
The rate of increase in the ratio is less if the change in the industrial
labor force is not taken into account, implying worsened performance
in the labor productivity advancement.
The decline in efficiency of industrial investment cannot be ex-
plained by a shift in the composition of investment. If the 1959
average capital-net output ratios for nine industrial branches are
weighted by the proportions of total industrial investment accruing to
them,' respectively, for the periods 1950-58 and 1958-62,7 the effect of
the shift in investment composition is to change the aggregate capital-
s While useful as a rough indicator of the efficiency of capital utilization, capital-output ratios have limi-
tations which should be kept in mind. If so aggregative as to cover the entire economy or all of industry,
their ratios may be strongly influenced by differing economic structures with differences between sectors or
industrial branches often larger than those between countries. The use of marginal, rather than average,
ratios may introduce distortions : rising fr ~n discont,nuitie: in inve':aent, trs Si. ilarly. ,, it ercnee; in
capacity utilization on terminal dates may also bias the int rcount y comp;,.. cons. Even with these limi-
tations in mind, the divergence in trends in capital-output ratios between the U.S.S.R. and the market
economies has been so glaring since 1958 as to be little affected by the qualifications cited above.
a Data on net output from Vladimir Treml, The 1959 Soviet Intersectorai Flow Table, vol. 1, Research
Analysis Corp. (TP-137), Table 33. Data on capital stock from Tsentral'noe Statichesko Upavlenie,
Narodnopo Ifhoziastvs SSSR v 1960 Godu (Central Statistical Administration, National Economy of the
U.S.S.R. in 1960), p. 87.
' 1961 edition of above statistical compendium, pp. 541 and 545, and 1962 edition, p. 434.
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CURRENT EX 0
output ratio imperceptibly and in ,the opposite direction to the
actual trend. Therefore, one must conclude that there must have
been marked increases in marginal capital=output ratios within in-
industrial branches. Preliminary calculations from an extended
research effort by the author indicate that marginal capital-output
ratios for most industrial branches increased, significantly in the
period 1958-63 as compared with the 8 years ending with 1958.
Shifts in investment proportions among branches explained only one-
seventh of the rise in the industry sector ratio. The rises were
particularly large in ferrous metals, coal, chemicals, construction
materials, and consumer goods branches. Calculations from Soviet
sources, which utilize a gross rather than a net output concept, also
disclose sharp increases in capital requirements per unit of output
for 1960 as compared with 1955.8
The sharp decline in the rate of increase in investment since 1960
has been matched by a rapid upsurge in defense expenditures.9 A
similar development occurred during the Korean war mobilization of
the early 1950's. Conversely the years of reduced military spending
of the midfifties were those in which investment grew at rapid rates.
Furthermore, the declining numbers of military personnel since 1958
implies that the bulk of the increase in defense outlays has occurred in
nonpersonnel expenditures. The stress within the defense effort has
been on research and development and procurement of sophisticated
weaponry. Unfortunately for the Soviet planners the scarce resources
in the form of scientists, engineers, managers, and supplies of high i
t hasis
quality iicanatlerials and
thosec equiired to undertake the type oflinvestment
are reiden q
needed for rapid growth.
The investment emphasis in recent years has centered on the sectors
featuring the introduction of new technology; e.g., chemicals, oil and
gas, and complex machinery. Between 1958 and 1963 productive
investment in industry as a whole rose by some 46 percent, but the
.increases in chemicals, oil and gas, and machinery were 226, 52, and
74 percent, respectively.10 The increased difficulties of design, con-
struction, and operation of finished facilities in these spheres of new
technology are quantified by the high volume of uncompleted plants;
as compared with an increase of over two-thirds for productive plant
as a whole between 1958 and 1963, the rise was more than double
for machinery and more than triple for chemicals."
Apparently the competition for scarce productive factors between
military and investment claims has become more acute and resolved
in favor of defense needs. This decision may have been implemented
both by explicitly higher priorities for military production and by the
less explicit policy of giving investment claimants less timely and
coordinated delivery of vital inputs. The rising volume of incom-
pleted projects reflects the latter policy. Even if investment had been
given a higher resource priority, there would still have been growth
retardation resulting from the additional time required to assimilate
new technologies.
B Akadomita Nauk S.S.S.R., Kapital'noe vlozheniia i reservy ikh ispol'zovaniia (U.S.S.R. Academy of
Sciences, Capital Investments and Reserves for their Utilization), 1963, p. 266.
' Since 1960 rates of increase in investment have averaged only 4 percent, while explicit defense outlays
have risen by more than 10.5 percent per year (9.3 billion rubles in 1960 to 13.3 billion in 1963).
10 Economic Indicators vio 1963 IV-5 and Prada, San. Godu, pp. 460 461, 24, 1964.
n Narsdere Khoziaistvo SSSR
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
COMPARATIVE SIZE AND FUTURE TREND OF GNP
In 1963 the U.S.S.R. was the world's second largest economy with
a GNP approximately 46 percent the size of the United States and
some 23z times as large as those of the principal Western European
countries (table 1-6). In per capita terms its relative position is less
favorable-about three-eighths of the United States; more than a
third below France, Germany, and the United Kingdom; about equal
to that of Italy; and about 30 percent above Japan's.
TABLE I-6.-Comparative dollar values of gross national product in 1963
[Market prices]
United States________________________
U.S.S.R------------------------------
Germany (Federal Republic) ---------
United Kingdom--------------------
Franco -------------------------------
Japan -- -----------------------------
Italy--------------------------------
Ranked by
GNP
(billions)
United States_______________________
France-----------------------
Germany (Federal Republic)-_--___
United Kingdom___________________
U.S.S.R
Italy-------------------------------
Japan-------------------------------
Ranked by
per capita
(dollars)
3,084
1, 964
1, 858
1, 803
1,178
1,107
907
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom: 1963 GNP is originally expressed in the countries' own
currencies. They are obtained from the sources noted in table 1-2. Ratios for converting these estimates
to dollars are initially based on the 1950 ratios in Gilbert and Kravis, An International Comparison of Nrztioual
Products and the Purchasing Power of Currencies, OEEC, Paris, 1954. The geometric means of United
States and European weighted ratios are used. The ratios are moved to 1963 by the quotients of relevant
European price indexes divided by U.S. price indexes. The price indexes can be derived from sources used
to obtain the original estimates,
Japan: The same methodology is followed for Japan. 1963 yen estimates are obtained from the source
cited in table 1-2. A 1960 geometric conversion ratio has been constructed by Irving Kravis in Journal of
Political Economy, August 1963, p. 327. The ratio is expressed in 1963 prices by the same procedure used
for the OECD economies.
U.S.S.R.: The same methodology is followed for the U.S.S.R. The base year ruble estimate for Soviet
GNP in 1955 is obtained from Morris Bornstein and others, Soviet National Accounts for 1955, Center for
Russian Studies, University of Michigan, 1961, pp. 71-72. The 1955 estimate is moved to 1963 by the GNP
index shown in table I-1. The 1955 geometric conversion ratio has been obtained from Morris Bornstein
"A Comparison of Soviet and United States National Product ,L"~ Joint Economic Committee, Comparisons
of the United States and Soviet Economies, 1959, pp. 385-386. There is no available Soviet price index for
moving the ratio to 1963 values, but scattered available statistics indicate little change in price levels for
national income, industrial products, and consumer goods. Therefore, the movement in the geometric
ruble-dollar ratio from 1955 to 1963 is assumed to be only a function of changes in U.S. prices.
As a proportion of the U.S. equivalent, Soviet gross national product
increased from a third in 1950 to a maximum of nearly 47 percent in
1961. Since then it has dropped a percentage point as U.S. growth
has exceeded that of the Soviet Union. In absolute terms the U.S.
margin reached a low of about $266 billion in the recession of 1958
and has subsequently widened to approximately $318 billion in 1963.
The future growth trend of the Soviet economy will be substantially
below that of the early and middle 1950's, but should average some-
what in excess of performances since 1958 under the assumption of
normal agricultural weather conditions. The projections for the
market economies are based upon national target estimates for 1970
submitted to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel-
opment and upon official Japanese plan goal (table 1-7). Through
1964 the continental economies and Japan have matched or exceeded
targeted growth rates. The United Kingdom has lagged in its
growth performance with future recoupment dependent on the adop-
tion and successful execution of fundamental structural reforms. If
the United States can maintain the expansion pace of the past 3 years,
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CURRENT E 0 0 DI
it may be able to attain its 4.5-percent target. The lower limit of the
U.S. estimate reflects the .average growth rate since 1960.
The Soviet plan revisions of recent years provide little basis for
reliance upon official intentions. Perhaps ample guide will be pro-
vided by the yet unpromulgated 5-year plan commencing in 1966.
TABLE I-7.-Comparative projections of GNP
[Annual averages]
Projected
growth rate,
Performance,
1960-134
1960-70
U.S.S.R----------------------?----------------------------------------------
4.5-5. 5
6.0
4.6
5.0
France----------------
4.1
5.0
Germany (Federal Republic) -----------------------------------------
Italy --
-------
-
-----
--------------
---
5.6
3.3
5.5
2.7
-
-
-
-
-
Japan United Kingdom
--- ---------------------------------------------------------------
Japan -------------
7.2
4.0-4.5
10.0
4.0
United States
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Projections: For the European OECD countries rates represent official national projections of growth
projection Economic lower limitsislthe nnua
within the official O OECD Policies for and the
For the United States the upper limit l
average since 1960.
The projection of Japan is the official plan goal (Japan, Economic Planning Agency, New Long Range
Economic Plan of Japan, 1961-70, Tokyo, 1901, p. 2).
The U.S.S.R. projection represents a range bounded at the lower limit by the growth of GNP per em-
ployee from 1958-63 of 3.3 percent (table 4) and at the upper limit by the rate which would have been
achieved had agricultural output continued to rise by the 1.6 percent average annual increase of 1958-61-
5 percent. The upper limit productivity estimate has been reduced to 4.8 percent to reflect the continuing
decline in the rise of nonagricultural productivity. When these 2 productivity projections are multiplied
by the 1.1 percent projected growth of the labor force, the range of growth of 4.4 to 5.9 percent is obtained
for the period 1964-70. When these estimates are combined with 1960-64 performance, the growth range
shown in the table is derived.
Performance: 1960-63 estimates from sources to table 2; 1964 estimates for market economies from London
and agri-
cultural iperformance and assumption of continuation of 1963 rate of growth for other sectors.
In the absence of any official Soviet growth target for 1970, the
extrapolation of their GNP is based on recent trends. On the assump-
tion that 1958 represented a kink in the Soviet growth path the base
for extrapolation lies in the post-1958 period. In view of the non-
repetitive measures adopted during the past decade to increase
labor force participation and the high proportion of women in re-
munerative employment, it is unlikely that employment can be
increased much beyond the annual increment of 1.1 percent projected
for the working age group.12 As for productivity expectations, the
minimum would appear to be established by the economy's 1958-63
performance with its reduced industrial growth rate and stagnation
in agriculture. The upper limit presumes the same industrial growth
rate, but resumption of the 1.5 percent annual growth in agricultural
output which prevailed from 1958 to 1961 before the onset of adverse
weather factors. The computed upper limit has been adjusted
slightly downward to reflect the continual deceleration in the rise of
nonagricultural labor productivity.
Soviet growth superiority among the principal world economies is.
now a memory. For the remainder of this decade, Soviet growth will.
be little or no faster than that of France and Italy and considerably
slower than that of Japan. The former wide disparity between Soviet
and United States expansion rates will be reduced to around 1 per-
cent. The absolute difference between the national products of the
12 Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, 1962, p. 521.
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two economies will continue to widen, even given the lower limit United
States and upper limit Soviet growth projections.
In the second half of the decade of the 1960's, the Soviet leadership
finds itself faced with proliferating demands on a tightened resource
base. Given reduced labor force increments and decreased efficiency
of capital inputs, the regime cannot simultaneously upgrade living
standards, maintain a rapid growth rate, and match the United States
in aerospace and nuclear development. Since 1960 both the growth
of consumption levels and the expansion in output have tapered off
significantly. While defense outlays rose sharply until 1963, the
U.S.S.R. was not successful in maintaining parity in sophisticated
weaponry with the United States and has recently moderated the
burgeoning defense effort. The new post-Khrushchev regime has
stressed reemphasis on consumer needs and the resumption of rapid
growth. In addition to this switch in priorities there has been increas-
ing concern about the efficiency with which limited resources are be-
ing utilized. The emerging proposals for thoroughgoing institutional
reform represent a determination to satisfy more claims on a tightened
resource base.
Sector
1959
weights
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1950-58
Average
1958-53
Average
Industry__________________
Construction_________
31.0
10.9
9.1
17
3
8.5
15
3
6.8
8
7
7.1
7.8
6.6
9
9.0
7 5
.
Agriculture________________
Transportation
29.2
7
1
.
10.4
.
-5.1
.
0.5
1.2
8.6
1.2
-1.2
2.8
-5.1
13.1
5.7
5.3
-0
4
-----------
CoTmnunication ----------
.
.7
10.8
7.1
11.6
6
6
9.9
8
5
8.1
6
9
8.2
9.8
12.2
.
9,5
C ce________________
Services- _
4.6
16
9
5.1
.
.
7.2
.
7.7
7.8
5.5
8.2 0
5.
6.0
4.0
.0
7 6
.2
6
_
.
.2
2.5
3.7
5.9
6.8
3.0
2.1
.
4.4
Gross national product-_
100.0
8.5
4.2
4.9
6.8
4
3
2
6
7
0
.
.
.
4.5
DERIVATION OF SECTOR INDEXES
Industry-See table 111-7 for indexes for years 1959-63. Estimates for 1958 obtained fro table II1-7 of
Annual Economic Indicators for the U.S.S.R. and for 1950 from Di m
based on evidence in the mensions of Soviet Economic Power, p. 120.
This index measures civilian production. The inclusion of armaments production data in recent years
explicit defense budget for 1962 and 1963 would reinforce the indicated trend.
Construction-Indexes in 1955 prices of state and cooperative (p. 44), and private housing (pp, 188-189)
from Tsentral'noe Staticbeskoe Upravlente, Kapital'noe Stroitel'stvo v S.S.S.R. (Central Statistical Admin-
istration, Capital Construction in the U.S.S.R.), 1961 for data through 1960. 1961 and 1962 data from same
author, Narodnoe Khoziaistvo SSSR v 1969 Godu (the U.S.S.R. National Economy in 1962), pp. 433, 437.
1963 data from 1963 edition of same compendium. Collective farm investment from Vestnik Statistiki
(Statistical Herald), No. 5, 1964, p. 92, 1950 collective farm investment assumes that productive invest-
ment in 1950 was the same ratio of total investment as in 1964.
Agriculture-The methodology used in constructing the index of net agricultural output in the U.S.S.R.
is the same as that described on p. 98 of the JE C report for 1962, Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, except
for a few minor changes. For example t the commodities covered by the index have been increased with
the inclusion of vegetables and eggs. Also a change was made in the method of deducting the value of
grain and potatoes used as livestock feed and state purchase prices (July 1958) were used as weights without
adjustment for free market sales. The relative importance of free market sales has declined significantly
in recent years.
Transportation-Norman M. Kaplan, Soviet Transport and Communications Output Indexes, 1928-62,
Rand Corp. (RM-4264-PR) 1064, p, 55. 1963 output obtained by adjusting 1963 link relative for volume
of freight (table VII-2) by 1155-62 relationship between indexes of freight volume and Kaplan's computed
freight output index.
Communications-Norman Kaplan, op. cit. p. 55. 1963 index obtained by adjusting 1963 link relative
for employment (SSSR v Tsifrakh v 1963 Godu, p. 133) by 1955-62 relationship between index of employ-
ment and Kaplan's index of employment and revenue.
Commerce-Index moved by trend of employment in commerce, procurement, and supply (table V-A-7)
times an assumed increase in productivity per worker of 0.7 percent per year. This increase in output per
employee was computed for services sectors in the U.S. economy for the period 1929-61 (Victor Fuchs, Good, and Service" Sectors,
Economic . 13). tih i Tf of indigenous information this trend Is a lsolp ? umed National to apply to nnc
oommodity se Research,
the Soviet economy.
Services-Indexes for the services subsectors are based on employment to
trends, adjusted for the assumed
0.7 percent annual productivity increase. The defense manpower estimates are oained from Dimensions
of Soviet
subsectors are obtained from table_ London.
Military Patance, 1962-83 and Military Balance, 1962 88, London. The employment indexes for the other
TABLE 1.-Annual origin sector growth rates for Soviet GNP
[Percentages]
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TABLE 2.-Composition of originating sector weights for 1969
[In billions of rubles]
Total
Propor-
Sector
Cash
Incomes
Interest
Depreci-
Land
factor
it.. of
incomes
in kind
return
ation
rent
pay-
GNP
ments
ndustry --------------------
Indust
29.1
_
0
4.7
_
31.0
lture____________________
A
16.0
13.0
3.2
2.1
4.3
37.8
29.2
Construction ___________________
12.6
__________
.4
.0
_
10.6
Transportation
4.7
_
1.0
_
7.1
Communications_______________
.6
.2
.1
.9
9.7
Commerce_____________________
4.8
.6
.4
5.8
5.4
Services________________________
17.0
2.5
3.5
3.2
__________
6.2
16.9
Gross national product. -
79.3
15.5
16.7
12.7
4.3
128.5
100.0
The derivation of the component estimates and the methodology
employed will be found in a separate publication by the author on
"Derivation of 1959 Value Added Weights for Originating Sectors of
Soviet Gross National Product."
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CHAPTER II
POPULATION
GENERAL TRENDS
A declining birth rate is perhaps the most noteworthy development
in Soviet demography in recent years. During the early 1950's,
there were about 27 births per 1,000 population in the Soviet Union.
By the end of the decade, the birth rate had declined to 25. Since
1960, however, the birth rate has declined quite rapidly and in 1964
stood at 19.7, 21 percent below its 1959 level. Twenty-eight percent
of the 1959 to 1964 decline occurred between 1963 and 1964.
Several factors appear to be working to reduce the birth rate.
Marital fertility has probably been declining at least since 1950, but
because the proportion married among females presumably rose in
response to the rising sex ratio, the birth rate declined only slightly.
By 1960, however, there were about equal numbers of men and women
in the prime reproductive ages and further increases in the sex ratio
could not significantly increase the proportion married among females
in these ages. Thus, further declines in marital fertility would
necessarily cause birth rates to fall.
One other factor which serves to accelerate the decline in the birth
rate since 1960 is that the population born during World War II, when
birth rates were low, is now reaching childbearing age. This means
that the population in these ages-and consequently the birth rate-is
declining. For example, at the beginning of 1961, the female popu-
lation 20 to 24 years old, the age group which has the highest fertility
rate, was estimated to have numbered 11 million persons. But, by
1964, the number in this age group had declined by 26 percent, to an
estimated 8.2 million.
Although the death rate in the Soviet Union has also declined, it
has not declined enough to counteract the declining birth rate. This
has meant that the natural increase rate has been falling. Onlya
sharp rise in the fertility of women, which would contravene .prevailing
trends, could prevent a declining growth rate. The total population
of the Soviet Union has increased, of course and unless the birth rate
falls substantially below the levels postulated for the projections
presented in tables II-7 to II-14, the increase should continue. The
projections show the population as reaching 245 to 261 million by
1975 and 259 to 299 million by 1985. The growth rate, however, is
expected to decline because as long as persons born during World
War II are in the reproductive ages, the age structure of the Soviet
population will serve to depress the birth rate.
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24 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
PROJECTED POPULATION OF SCHOOL AGE AND "COLLEGE AGE"
At the beginning of 1964, the Soviet Union had an estimated 18.6
million children aged 7 to 10 years, 17.6 million children aged 11 to 14
years, and 10.7 million adolescents aged 15 to 17 years. The number
of children of primary school age (7 to 10 years) is expected to increase
during the remainder of the present decade to a peak of about 20
million. There is expected to be a decline in the size of this group
during the 1970's, however, as children born during the 1960's reach
school age. The number of children of intermediate school age (11 to
14 years) is also expected to increase to about 20 million by the early
1970's. Thereafter it should decline. The population of secondary
school age, which numbered 10.7 million at the beginning of 1964, is
expected to increase during the remainder of the 1960's and into the
1970's. By 1976, there are expected to be about 15 million persons
aged 15 to 17 years in the Soviet Union. Toward the end of the
1970's, however, this group will be comprised of those born during the
1960's and the number is expected to drop.
The number of persons 20 to 24 years old, or the "college age"
population, has been declining. In 1961 there were an estimated 21.9
million persons in this age range; in 1964 there were only 16.4 million,
a decline of about 25 percent. By 1967, when the projections show
this population as reaching its lowest point, there are expected to be
only 11.9 million persons of "college age," a 46-percent decline from
the 1961 level. This decline is related to the movement into this
age. group of persons born during World War II. After 1967, the
projections point to a fairly rapid recovery, although the age group is
not expected to attain its 1961 level before 1975:
PROJECTED MALE POPULATION OF MILITARY AGE
Males born during World War II began reaching military age
during the early 1960's. As a consequence, the number of males
17 to 19 years old dropped from 6.1 million in 1959 to a low of 3.2
million during 1962 and 1963. By the beginning of 1964, however, the
population in this group had increased to an estimated 3.9 million,
but the projections show the number of males in the military ages
as exceeding the 1959 figure only after 1968. The increase in the
size of this group is expected to continue until the end of the 1970's
when it will reach a high of 7.7 million, and then drop somewhat
during the 1980's. The number of males in the broader range of
military ages, 17 to 34 years, declined by about 10 percent between
1959 and 1964, from 33.7 million to 30.8 million. From its 1964
low, it is expected to increase gradually, reaching 33 million by 1970,
40 million by 1980, and between 41 and 43 million by 1985.
PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE "ABLE-BODIED AGE"
Males aged 16 to 59 years and females aged 16 to 54 years con-
stitute the able-bodied ages in the Soviet Union. Estimates indicate
that during 1959 and 1960 the population in this age group declined
by about 0.4 million and that from 1961 through 1963 the group
grew less rapidly than it had prior to 1959. Thus, at the beginning
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 25
of 1964, there were an estimated 121.7 million persons of "able-
bodied age" in the Soviet Union, an increase of only 2 million over
the 1959 figure. During the 5-year period, 1966 through 1970, an
increase of nearly 10 million is projected, and the population of
"able-bodied age" is shown as reaching 134.9 million at the beginning
of 1971. By 1980, the population in this group is expected to number
157 million, and, by 1985, between 159 and 164 million.
The projections point to persistently larger increases for men than
for women of "able-bodied age." In 1959, because of the deficit of
men due to World War II, women 16 to 54 years old outnumbered men
16 to 59 years old by about 9.7 million, despite the fact that the age
span for men in this group is 5 years longer than that for women. By
1964, there were 0.6 million fewer women but 2.6 more men of "able-
bodied age" than there were in 1959. By the mid-1970's, there are
expected to be as many men as women in the "able-bodied ages," and
by 1985, according to the projections, men in this group should out-
number women by about 8.5 million.
TABLE II-1.-Population of the U.S.S.R., by urban and rural residence, selected
years, 1918-85
[Population figures in millions]
Territory and dates
Population
Percent
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
Interwar territory:
1913___________________________________
139.3
24.8
114.6
100
18
82
1917______________________
143.5
25.8
117.7
100
18
82
1919__________________________
138.0
21.5
116.5
100
16
84
1920______________________________
136.8
20.9
115.9
100
15
85
Deo.17,1928---------------------
147.0
26.3
120.7
100
18
82
1929---------------------------?----..
153.4
28.7
124.7
100
19
81
1937___________________________________
163.8
46.6
117.2
100
28
72
1938___________________________________
187.0
60.0
117.0
100
30
70
Jan. 17,1939__________________________
170.6
56.1
114.5
100
33
67
territory: Jan. 1,1939 1 _______________
190.7
7
60.4
130.3
100
32
68
Postwar territory:
1913___________________________________
159.2
28.5
130.7
100
18
82
1917___________________________________
163.0
29.1
133.9
100
18
82
178.5
69.4
109.1
100
39
61
Jan. 1,1951--u________________________
181.6
73.0
108.6
100
40
60
Jan. 1,1962___________________________
184.8
76.8
108.0
100
42
58
Jan. 1,1953___________________________
188.0
80.2
107.8
100
43
57
Jan. 1,1984---------------------------
191.0
83.6
107.4
100
44
68
Jan. 1,1966___________________________
194.4
86.3
108.1
100
44
56
Jan. 1,1966___________________________
197.9
88.2
109.7
100
46
65
1967___________________________
Jan. 1
201.4
91.4
110.0
100
45
55
,
1968___________________________
Jan. 1
204.9
95.6
109.3
100
47
53
,
Jan. 15,1959__________________________
208.8
100.0
108.8
100
48
52
Jan. 1,1980___________________________
212.3
103.8
108.5
100
49
51
1981___________________________
Jan. 1
216.1
108.3
107.8
100
60
60
,
1962___________________________
Jan. 1
219.7
11118
107.9
100
51
49
,
Jan. 1,1963___________________________
223.1
115.1
108.0
100
52
48
1984___________________________
Jan. 1
226
226.2
118.6
107.7
100
b2
48
,
Jan. 1,1965___________________________
229.1
121.6
107.5
100
63
47
I The figures shown are official Soviet estimates for the territory of the U.S.S.R. including the western
oblasts of the Ukraine and Byelorussia, Moldavia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The figures presumably
apply to the interwar territory adjusted for the annexations of 1939 and 1940, but exclude the population
in the territory retroceded to Poland at the end of the war.
Source: 1913-63: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye upravlentye pri Sovete ministrov SSSR Narodnoye
khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 godu, statioiieheskiy yezhegodnik (The National Economy of the U.S.S.k. in 1962, A
Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1963, pp. 7-8. 1964-65: ------ SSSR v isifrakh v 1964 godu. Kratkiy statis-
tieheskiy ebornik (The U.S.S.R. in Figures in 1968, A Short Statistical Compilation), Moscow. 8965, p. 7.
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26 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE-II 2.-Birth, death, and natural increase rates for the U.S.S.R., selected years
1913-64
[Rate per 1,000 population]
Year
Birth
Death
Natural
increase
Year
Birth
Death
Natural
increase
1913 ----------
47.0
30.2
16.8
1954__________
26.6
8.9
17.7
1926 ----------
44.0
20.3
23.7
1955 ----------
25.7
8.2
17.5
1928 ----------
44.3
23.3
21.0
1956__________
25.2
7.8
17.6
1937__________
38.7
18.9
19.8
1957__________
25.4
7.8
17.6
1939 ----------
37.5
17.5
20.0
1958__________
25.3
7.2
18.1
1939__________
36.5
17.3
19.2
25.0
7.6
17.4
1940________
31.3
18.1
13.2
1960
24.9
7.1
17.8
1950__________
26.7
9.7
17.0
23.8
7.2
16.6
1951__________
27.0
9.7
17.3
1962
22.4
7.5
14.9
1952_________
_
26.5
0.4
17.1
1963__________
21.2
7.2
14.0
1953__
_-__
25.1
9.1
16.0
196C ---------
19.7
7.0
12.7
Source: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye upravleniye pri Sovete ministrov SSSR Narodnoye khozyaystvo
SSSR v 1962 godu, statisticheskiy yezhegodnik (The National Economy of the U.S.S.R. in 1962, A Statistical
Yearbook), Moscow, 1963, p. 30; ------- Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1963 godu, statisticheskiy yezhegodnik
(The National Economy of the U.S.S.R. in 1962, A Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1965, p 104; ______, SSSR
v tsifrakh v 1964 godu, Kr atkiy statisticheskiy sbornik (The U.S.S.R. in Figures in 1964, A Short Statistical Com-
pilation), Moscow, 1965, p. 14.
TABLE II-3.-Estimated and projected population of the U.S.S.R. and the United
States, selected years, 1913-86
[Unless otherwise noted, figures relate to July 1. Beginning with 1939, the figures for the United States
include Armed Forces overseas; prior to 1962, they exclude Alaska and Hawaii]
[In millions]
Population of the U.S.S.R.
in-
Population
of the
U.S. population as a percent
of the Soviet population
,I
Present
territory
Pre-World
War II
territory
United
States
Present
territory
Pre-World
War II
territory
1913-----------------------------
159.2
139.3
97.2
61.1
69.8
1917-----------------------------
--------------
143.5
103.3
--------------
72.0
1920-------------- --------------
--------------
136.8
106.5
--------------
77.9
1926-----------------------------
--------------
1 147.0
117.4
--------------
79.9
1929-----------------------------
--------------
163.4
121.8
--------------
79.4
1939-----------------------------
1941-----------------------------
--------200.0
2170.6
--------------
131.0
133.4
----?---66.7
76.8
--------------
1950-----------------------------
180.1
--------------
152.3
84.8
--------------
1964-----------------------------
227.9
--------------
192.1
84.3
--------------
1970:
A ---------------------------
246.4
--------------
211.4
85.8
--------------
B ---------------------------
244.6
--------------
209.0
85.4
--------------
C ---------------------------
241.4
--------------
206.1
85.4
--------------
D ---------------------------
239.3
--------------
205.9
86.0
--------------
1980:
A- --------------------------
281.4
252.1
89.6
B -----------------`---------
274.2
--------------
245.3
89.5
--------------
C ---------------------------
261.9
--------------
236: 5
90.3
--------------
D ---------------------------
252.7
--------------
233.1
92.2
--------------
1985:
A.
299.3
--------------
275.6
92.1
--------------
B ---------------------------
290.9
--------------
266.3
91.5
--------------
C-
273.2
--------------
254.0
93.0
--------------
D ---------------------------
256.9
--------------
248.0
95.8
--------------
1 Census of Dec. 17, 1926.
2 Census of Jan. 17, 1939.
Source: U.S.S.R.: 1913-39: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye upravlentye pri Sovete ministrov S88 R
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1868 odu, statisticheskiy yezhegodnik (The National Ecodomy of the U.S.S.R.
in 1962, A Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1963, pp. 7-8. 1941: Estimate. 1950-85: U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the U.S.S.R., by Age and Sex: 1964-85,
by James W. Brackett. International Population Reports, Series P-91, No. 13, Washington, 1984 p. 35.
See table II-7 for an explanation of the projection series.
United States: 1913-41: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the
United States, Colonial Times to 1957, Washington, 1960, p. 7. 1950 and 1964: ____, Estimates of the Population
of the United States, Jan. 1, 1950, to Jan. 1, 1966, Current Population Reports, series P-25 No. 299,Wash-
ington, 1965. 1970-85: ____, Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and hex: 1964 to 1985
by Jacob S. Siegel, Meyer Zitter, and Donald S. Akers, Current Population Reports, serles'P-25, No. 286,
Washington, 1964, p. 41. All four series assume that mortality will decline and that there will be 300,000 !in-
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R0001003400Qt 3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. GL
migrants annually. The fertility assumptions, expressed in terms of the maternal gross reproduction rate
are given below. For comparison, the maternal gross reproduction rate in 1062 was 171.
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
1965----------------------------------------------------
175
164
151
151
1970-----------------------------------------------------
172
157
139
136
1975-----------------------------------------------------
170
157
139
131
1980-----------------------------------------------------
168
156
139
126
1985-----------------------------------------------------
166
154
137
123
TABLE II-4.-Birth and death rates for the U.S.S.R. and the United States, 1966-68
[Rate per 1,000 population]
1955--------------------------------------------
1956--------------------------------------------
1957--------------------------------------------
1958--------------------------------------------
1959--------------------------------------------
1960--------------------------------------------
1961- ------------------------------------------
1962--------------------------------------------
1963---------?----------------------------------
1964--------------------------------------------
United
States
United
States
25. 7
25.0
8.2
9.3
25.2
25.2
7.6
9.4
25.4
25.3
7.8
9.6
25.3
24.6
7.2
9.5
25.0
24.3
7.6
9.4
24.9
23.7
7.1
0.5
23.8
23.3
7.2
9.3
22.4
22.4
7.6
9.5
21.2
21.6
7.2
9.6
19.7
21.3
7.0
9.4
Source: U.S.S.R.: Table II-2.
United States: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United
States: 1962, Washington, 1962, p. 52; - - - - - - Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1964, Washington,
1964, p. 48; ------, Current Population Report, Series P-25, No. 30, p. 1.
TABLE II-5.-Populations of cities in the U.S.S.R. with 1964 populations of 600,000
inhabitants or more, and of all Republic capitals, 1939, 1959, 1963, and 1964
(Population figures in thousands. Figures for 1939 presumably relate to the beginning of the year; those for
1959 to the census of Jan. 15. Figures for other years are official estimates for Jan. 1]
City
Population
Percent change
1939
1959
1983
1964
1939-64
1959-64
1063-64
1. Moscow----------------------------
4,642
6,039
6,354
6,388
40.6
6.8
0.5
2. Leningrad--------------------------
3,385
3,321
3,552
3,807
6.6
8.6
1.5
3. Klyev------------------------------
847
1,104
1,248
1,292
52.5
17.0
3.5
4. Baku------------------------------
775
971
1, 086
1,116
44.0
14.9
2.8
5. Gor'kiy----------------------------
644
942
1,042
1,066
65.5
13.2
2.3
6. Tashkent---------------------------
550
012
1, 029
1, 061
92.9
16.3
3.1
7. Khar'kov---------------------------
833
034
1,008
1,048
26.8
12.2
4.2
8. Novosibirsk ------------------------
404
888
090
1,013
150.7
14.3
2.3
9. Kuybyshev------------------------
390
806
901
928
137.9
16.1
3.0
10. Sverdlovsk-------------------------
423
779
869
897
112.1
15.1
3.2
11. Donetsk----------------------------
466
699
774
794
70.4
13.6
2.6
12. Chelyabinsk------------------------
273
689
767
700
189.4
14.7
3.0
13. Tbilisi------------------------------
519
695
768
786
51.4
13.1
2.3
14. Dnepropetrovsk--------------------
527
660
738
755
43.3
14.4
2.3
15. Perm'------------------------------
306
629
722
745
143.5
18.4
3.2
16. Kazan'-----------------------------
398
647
725
743
86.7
14.8
2.5
17. Odessa-----------------------------
602
667
709
721
19.8
8.1
1.7
18. Rostov-na-Donu--------------------
510
600
689
708
36.4
17.7
2.6
19. Omsk------------------------------
289
581
674
702
142.9
20.8
4.2
20. Volgograd--------------------------
445
592
663
684
53.7
15.5
3.2
21. Minsk------------------------------
237
509
644
675
184.8
32.6
4.8
22. Saratov-----------------------------
372
581
644
665
78.8
14.5
3.3
23. Ufa---------------------------------
258
647
630
661
152.3
19.0
3.3
24. Riga--------------------------------
346
580
632
646
85.3
11.2
2.1
25. Yerevan----------------------------
204
609
578
607
197.5
19.3
5.0
26. Alma-Ata--------------------------
222
456
580
607
173.4
33.1
4.7
27. Voronezh---------------------------
344
448
535
558
62.2
24.6
4.3
28. Zaporozh'e-------------------------
282
435
507
529
87.0
21.6
4.3
29. Krasnoyarsk-----------------------
190
412
483
521
174.2
28.5
7.9
30. Frunze-----------------------------
93
220
328
342
267.7
55.5
4.9
31. Tallfn------------------------------
160
282
311
320
100.0
13.5
2.9
32. Dushanbe--------------------------
83
224
276
298
259.0
33.0
8.0
33. Vil'nyus----------------------------
215
236
271
282
31.2
19.5
4.1
34. Kishinev---------------------------
112
216
254
267
138.4
23.6
5.1
35. Ashkhabad-------------------------
127
170
207
216
69.3
26.6
3.9
Source: 1939, 1959, and 1963: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye upravleniye pri Sovete ministrov SSSR,
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 godu, statlaticheskiy yezhegodaik (The National Economy of the
USSR in 1961, a Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1963, p. 25. 1964: ------- SSSR v tsifrakh v 19613 godu,
Kratkiy statisticheskiy sbornik (U.S.S.R. in k'igures in 1966, A Short Statistical Compilation), Moscow,
1064, pp. 16-17.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
TABLE II-6.-Average family size in the U.S.S.R., by nationality and urban and
rural residence, 1959
[Nationality groups are ranked according to average family size]
Percent
Average family size
Nationality
Percent
distribution
_
urban
of the total
population
Total
Urban
Rural
All nationalities---------------------
48
1 100.0
3.7
3.5
3.9
Tadzhik-----------------------------------
21
0.7
5.2
5.1
5.2
Uzbek-------------------------------------
22
2.9
5.0
4.9
5.0
Turkmen----------------------------------
25
0.5
5.0
4.7
5.1
Azerbaydzban-----------------------------
35
1.4
4.8
4.6
4.9
Armenian---------------------------------
57
1.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
Kazakh------------------------------------
24
1.7
4.6
4.7
4.5
Kirgiz-------------------------------------
11
0.7
4.5
4.3
4.6
Ceorgian----------------------------------
36
1.3
1
1
4.0
3
9
3.8
6
3
4.1
4
0
Moldavian--------------------------------
Belorussian--------------------------------
13
32
.
3.8
.
3.7
.
3.4
.
3.7
Russian-----------------------------------
58
54.6
3.6
3.5
3.7
Lithuanian--------------------------------
35
1.1
3.6
3.4
3.6
Ukrainian---------------------------------
39
17.8
3.5
3.3
3.6
Latvian-----------------------------------
48
0.7
3.1
3.0
3.2
Estonian----------------------------------
47
0.5
3.0
3.1
3.0
I Because about 10 percent of the population are members of nationality groups other than those listed, the
distribution does not add to the total. Data on average family size for other nationalities are not reported.
Source: Tsentral'noye statisticbeskope upravleniye pri Sovete ministrov SSSR Itogi Vessoyuznoy
perepisi naseleniya 1959 goda, SSSR (The Results of the All-Union Census of Population 1959, U.S.S.R.),
Moscow, 1962, pp. 184 if. and 252.
TABLE II-7.-Estimated and projected population of preschool age in the U.S.S.R.:
1969-85
[Jan.1 figures in millions. Figures were independently rounded without adjustment to group totals. The
letters A, B, C, and D denote the projection series]
Under 7 years
Under 3 years
3 to 6 years
Year
A
BI
CI
D
A
B I
C
D
A
B I
C
D
1969-----------------------
33.2
14.8
18.4
1960-----------------------
33.7
15.0
18.6
1961-----------------------
34.4
15.3
19.1
1962-----------------------
34.6
15.3
19.3
1983-----------------------
34.6
150
19.6
1964-----------------------
34.5
14.5
20.0
1965-----------------------
34.3
34.1
33.7
33.6
14.2
14.1
13.7
13.5
20.1
19.8
1966-----------------------
1967
33.9
33
5
33.5
32
8
32.8
31
6
32.3
30
9
14.1
14
0
13.7
13.4
12.9
12.2
12.5
11.5
19.5
-----------------------
1968-----------------------
.
32.9
.
32.0
.
30.3
.
29.3
.
13.9
13.1
11.8
10.9
19.1
18.9
18.5
18.
1969-----------------------
82.5
31.3
29.0
27.6
13.8
13.0
11.5
10.5
18.7
18.3
17.6
17.2
1970-----------------------
32.4
30.8
28.0
26.2
13.8
12.9
11.3
10.1
18.6
17.9
16.7
16.0
1971-----------------------
32.5
30.5
27.0
24.7
14.0
13.0
11.1
9.8
18.5
17.6
15.8
14.8
1972-----------------------
32.6
30.4
26.5
23.8
14.2
13.1
11.1
9.6
18.3
17.3
16.4
14.2
1973-----------------------
32.9
30.4
26.2
231
14.6
13.3
11.1
9.5
18.3
17.2
15.1
13.7
1974-----------------------
33.4
30.7
26.0
22.5
14.9
13.5
11.1
9.3
18.5
17.2
14.9
13.2
1975-----------------------
34.0
31.0
25.9
22.0
15.3
13.8
11.2
9.1
18.7
17.3
14.8
12.9
1976-----------------------
34.8
31.5
26.0
21.7
15.7
14.0
11.3
9.1
19.1
17.5
14.7
12.7
1977-----------------------
35.6
32.1
26.2
21.6
16.0
14.3
11.4
9.1
19.6
17.8
14.7
12.4
1978-----------------------
36.4
32.7
26.4
21.5
16.3
14.6
11.7
9.3
20.0
18.1
14.8
12.2
1979-----------------------
37.2
33.3
26.8
21.6
18.7
14.9
11.9
9.5
20.5
18.4
14.9
12.1
1980-----------------------
38.0
34.0
27.2
21.8
17.0
15.2
12.2
9.7
21.0
18.8
15.1
12.1
1981-----------------------
38.8
34.7
27.7
22.2
17.4
16.5
12.4
9.9
21.5
19.2
15.3
12.3
1982-----------------------
39.6
35.3
28.3
22.6
17.7
15.8
12.6
10.1
21.9
19.6
15.6
12.6
1983-----------------------
40.4
36.0
28.8
23.1
18.0
16.1
12.9
10.3
22.4
20.0
16.0
12.8
1984-----------------------
41.1
36.7
29.3
23.5
18.3
16.3
13.0
10.4
22.8
20.4
16.3
13.6
1985-----------------------
41.7
37.3
29.8
23.9
18.5
16.5
13.2
10.6
23.3
20.8
16.6
13.3
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the
U.S.S.R., By Age and Sex: 1964-85, by James W. Brackett, International Population Reports, series P-91,
No. 13 Washington, 1964. The assumptions used in the preparation of the projections are as follows:
fertility: Series A: That the maternal gross reproduction rate will rise from its level of about 125
in 1963 to 130 in 1964 and will continue to rise by a constant annual amount until 1074, after which it will
stabilize at 140. Series B: That the maternal gross reproduction rate will remain constant at the 1963
level throughout the projection period. Series C: That the maternal gross reproduct on rate will de-
cline to 115 In 1064 and will continue to decline by a constant annual amount until 1974, after which it
will stabilize at 100. Series D: That the maternal gross reproduction rate will decline to 110 in 1964
and that it will continue to decline by a constant annual amount until 1974, after which it will stabilize
at 80.
Mortality: That age-specific death rates will decline in accordance with postwar international erperi-
ence.
ApvednFortRe asen2e041O42/04 : CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
p i
 Approved For Release 2004/ (0.&,I*-RP RBg 4 8,100342001-3
CURRENT ECONO
TABLE II-8.-Estimated and projected dpopulation of school age in the U.S.S.R.,
199-8
and D denote the prof eitho t adjustment to group totals.
[Jan. 1 figures in millions. Figures s A, were B, C, independentl rounded
The
7 to 17 years
7 to 10 years
11 to 14 years
15 to 17 years
Year
A
I B I C I
D
A
B
0
D
A B I C I D
A
B C
D
1959_--_--------
1960 -----------
38.3
17.1
11.3 13.2
14
9
80
.3
6 4
.
1981_--_------?
1982--____------
39.1
42 0
44
8
17.8
18.1
18.4
.
16.1
17.1
7.7
9. 2
1983
_-----------
1984__----------
1966------------
.
48.6
8
18.6
19.1
17.6
17.7
18
1
. s
11
12.6
1900 ------------
1967__----------
60. S
49.9
19.3
19.5
19
9
.
18.3
18.5
13.0
13.3
1968-__________-
1969------------
52:8
52
8
.
20.0
9.0
19.0
19,2
13.3
13.6
1970____________
1971______-_____
1972
.
62.6
53.0 52.9 52.8 52.3
19.4
19.0 18.8 1&5 18.
19.5
19.9
20
0
13.8
14.
14.1
14.3
___
1973___
1974:
52.9 52.6 51.7 51.3
52.8 52.1 50.9 50.2
18.7 18.3 17.5 17.1
16.0
18.6 17.9 16.7
.
19.7
9
4
.
14 5
14
8
____
1975_____
52.6 51.7 50. 48.9
1& 4 17.5 15.8 14.8
.
1
.
0
18
1976 ------------
52.3 51.1 48.8 47.4
5 46
7
4 47
0 60
52
.2
18.3 17.3 15.4 14
18.3 17.1 15.0 13.6
0' 1 18 6 18.3
19. 16.8 .5 17.1
18. 7 18 . 3 17.
.
150
4.
1977____________
197g____________
.
.
.
.
61.7 49.7 46.2 43.9
8 42
0
0 44
4 49
5
18.4 17.1 14.8 13.2
18.7 17.2 14.7 12.9
2
7
4
18.5 16.0
6 17.9 16.7 . 4
16.8 14.8
. S
17
'
'
4
1
1
8
.
1
7
14.3
197g____________
1990 ------------
1980____________
.
.
.
1.
51.4 48.6 43.6 40.1
51.4 48.6 43.6 40
4
5 38
4 42
48
2.6
7 1
19.1 17.5 14.7 12.6
19.3 7 14
5 17.7 14.7 12.4
19
l.5.3 14.1
2 1
V~
2
8~
3
3 17.
1
18.3 17.1 15.0 13.6
A. 0 13.9 13. b 13.3
13.9 13. 6 12.8 12.4
3
1981_____
1982_________
.
.
.
51.7
52.3 48.4 41.6 36.7
.
20.0 18.1 14.8 12.2
1
9 12
4 14
18
18.4 17.1 14.8 13.2
7 17.2 14.7 12.9
18
13.9 13.2 12.0 11.
13.7 13.0 11.6 10.8
1983_________
1984____
52. 9 48.8 41.2 35.8
53.7 49.0 41.1 35.1
.
.
.
20.6
21. 18.8 15.1 12.1
2
3 12
1 15
4 19
21
.
19.1 17. b 14.7 12.8
19. 17.7 14.7 12.4
13.6 12.8 11.3 10.
13.7 12.8 11.1 10.
1986____________
64.6 49.6 41.2 34.7
.
.
.
.
Source: Same as table 11-7.
TABLE II-9.-Estimated and projected population of college age in the U.S.S.R.,
[Jan. 1 figures in millions]
Population
Population
20 to 24
20 to 24
years old
years old
20
3
1973
----------------------------
21.5
1959---------------------------------
------------------------
1960
.
21.4
---
1974--------
21.8
22.3
---------
1961---------------------------------
21.9
21
6
1975--------
1976
------------------------
22.7
1062---------------------------------
.
3
19
-----
1977
-------------------------- --
22.9
1963---------------------------------
.
4
16
---
1978
------------------------------
23.3
1984---------------------------------
.
0
14
---
1979
----------------------
23.8
1965------------------------
.
4
------
1980
--------------
24.1
1966---------------------------------
12.
11
9
-------------------
1981
----------------------------
24.5
1967---------------------------
.
130
-----
1982
------- ------------------
24.7
1968-----------------------
.
-------
1983
-- ---------
24.6
1989 --------------------------------
.2
15
17
3
-------------------
1984
----------------------------
24.3
1970---------------------------------
1971
--------------- --------
.
19.2
-----
1985---------------------------------
123.8
--------
1972---------------------------------
20.6
I Series B projection. The figures for series A, 0, and D are 24,000,000, 23,400,000, and 23,300,000,
respectively.
Source: Same as table 11-7.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
4
0
 Aproved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-10.-Estimated and projected male population of military age in the
U.S.S.R., 1969-85
[Jan. 1 figures in millions. Figures were independently rounded without ajdustment to group totals. The
letters A, B, C, and D denote the projection series]
Year and series
17 to 34 years
17 to 19 years
17 years
18 years
19 years
1959-----------------------------
1960
83.7
6.1
1.9
2.0
2
2
-----------------------------
1961-----------------------------
33.4
32
6
5.1
4
0
1.2
1.9
.
2.0
1962-----------------------------
1063
.
31.8
.
3.2
.9
1.0
1.2
0
1.9
1
2
-----------------------------
1964-----------------------------
31.1
30.8
3.2
3
9
1.3
1
6
1.0
1
3
.
0
1965-----------------------------
1966
30.8
.
4.6
.
1.8
.
1.6
1.0
1
3
-----------------------------
1967
31.1
5.4
2.0
1.8
.
1
6
-----------------------------
1968-----------------------------
31.5
31
9
6.0
6
4
2.1
2.0
.
1.8
1969-----------------------------
1970
.
32.3
.
6.6
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.2
2
1
-----------------------------
1971-----------------------------
32.9
33
4
6.8
6
8
2.3
2.3
.
2.2
1972-----------------------------
1973
.
33.8
.
6.9
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.3
2
3
-----------------------------
1974----------------------------
33.9
34
0
7.0
7
2
2.4
2.4
.
2.2
1975-----------------------------
.
34.2
.
7.3
2.4
2
5
2.4
2
4
2.4
1976-----------------------------
1977
34.7
7.4
.
2.5
.
2.5
2.4
2
4
-----------------------------
1978-----------------------------
35.5
36.8
7.6
7
7
2.6
2
6
2.5
.
2.5
1979-----------------------------
88.4
.
7.7
.
2
5
2.6
2
6
2.5
1980-----------------------------
1981
39.8
7.5
.
2.4
.
2.5
2.6
2
6
-----------------------------
1982:
40.9
7.3
2.4
2.4
.
2.5
A---------------------------
B
41.7
7.2
2.4
---------------------------
C
41.6
7.1
2.3
2
4
---------------------------
D
41.4
6.9
2.1
2.4
.
---------------------------
1983:
41.3
6.8
2.0
A----------------------------
B
423
7.1
2.4
2.4
----------------------------
C
42.1
6.9
2.3
2.3
---------------------------
D
41:7
6.5
2.0
2.1
2.4
---------------------------
1984:
41.5
6.3
1.9
2.0
A---------------------------
B
42.6
7.1
2.3
2.4
2
4
---------------------------
C-------------------
-
42.3
41
6
6.8
2.2
2.3
.
2.3
-
------
D---------------------------
.
41
3
6.2
5
8
2.0
1
2.0
2.1
1985
.
.
.8
1.9
2.0
A----------------------------
B
42.8
7.0
2.3
2.3
2
4
----------------------------
C
42.3
6.6
2.2
2.2
.
2
3
---------------------------
D---------------------------
41.4
40.9
6.0
5
5
1.9
1
2.0
.
2.0
.
.8
1.8
1.9
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 31
TABLE II-11.-Estimated and projected population of "able-bodied age" in the
U.S.S.R., 1969-85
[In millions. Figures were independently rounded without adjustment to group totals. Population
figures refer to Jan. 1. The letters A, B, 0, and D denote the projection series]
Both sexes
Male
Female
Year and series
Population
Population
Population
of "able-
Net change
16 to 59
Not change
16 to 54
Net change
bodied ago"
years
years
1959_______________
119.7
-0.3
56.0
0.1
64.7
-0.5
1960_______________
119.4
-.1
55.2
.3
64.2
-.3
1961_______________
119.3
.4
66.5
.5
63.9
-.1
1962_______________
119.7
.9
56.9
.8
63.8
.1
1963_______________
120.6
1.2
56.7
.0
63.9
.2
1064_______________
121.7
1.6
57.6
1.1
84.1
.4
1965_______________
123.3
1.7
58.8
1.2
64.6
.5
1966_______________
126.0
1.8
60.0
1.3
65.0
.5
1987_______________
126.7
1.9
61.2
1.3
65.5
.6
1968_______________
128.6
2.1
62.6
1.3
66.1
.7
1969_______________
130.6
1.9
63.8
1.2
66.8
.7
1970_______________
- 132.6
2.3
65.0
1.3
67.6
1.0
1971_______________
134.9
2.3
66.3
1.3
68.5
1.0
1972_______________
137.2
2.4
67.7
1.4
69.6
1.0
1973_______________
139.6
2.6
69.0
1.5
70.6
1.1
1974---------------
142.2
2.7
70.5
1.6
71.6
1.1
1975_______________
144.8
2.7
72.1
1.6
72.7
1.1
1978_______________
147.6
2.8
73.7
1.7
73.8
1. 1
1977_______________
150.4
2.6
75.4
1.6
74.9
.9
1978_______________
152.9
2.1
77.1
1.5
75.8
.6
1979_______________
155.0
1.9
78.6
1.5
76.4
.4
1980_______________
166.9
1.5
80.1
1.4
76.8
.1
1981:
A_____________
158.6
1.7
81.6
1.5
77.0
.2
B_____________
158.4
1.5
81.5
1.4
76.9
.1
C-------------
158.1
1.2
81.3
1.2
76.7
-------------
D-------------
157.9
1.0
81.2
1.1
78.7
_____________
1982:
-
A- -----------
160.1
1.5
83.0
1.4
77.1
_____________
B__
159.7
1.3
82.8
1.3
76.9
_
.9
82.4
1.1
_
76.6
-.2
D_____________
158.6
.7
82.2
1.0
_
78.3
-.3
1983:
A_____________
161.4
1.3
84.3
1.2
77.2
______________
B-------------
160.8
1.1
84.0
1.1
-
76.9
-------------
O--------------
-159.6
.6
83.3
.9
76.3
-.3
D_____________
158.9
.4
83.0
.8
75.9
-.4
1984:
A_____________
162.6
1.2
85.3
1.0
77.3
.2
B----
61.7
.9
84.9
.9
-
76.9
-
.4
84.0
.6
76.1
-.2
D_____________
159.0
.1
83.5
.5
75.6
-.4
1985:
A_____________
163.8
1.1
86.2
.9
77.6
.3
B_____________
162.6
.8
85.6
.7
77.0
.1
C_____________
160.3
3
84.4
.4
75.9
-.1
D-------------
158.9
-.1
83.7
.2
75.2
-.3
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
TABLE II-12. Estimated and projected population of "retirement age" in the
U.S.S.R.: 1969-86
[Jan. 1 figures in millions. Figures were independently rounded without adjustment to
group totalsi
Year
Both
sexes
Males,
60 years
old and
over
Females,
55 years
old and
over
Year
Both
sexes
Males,
80 ears
old and
over
Females,
55 years
old and
over
1959______________
__
25.5
6.6
18.8
1073 ---------------
38.4
10.6
27.7
1960
____
_
26.3
6.8
19.5
1974________________
39.0
10.9
28.1
1961__
_
27.2
7.0
20.2
1975________________
39.6
11.1
28.4
1962________________
28.0
7.2
20.8
1976________________
40.0
11.3
28.7
1963_____________
28.9
7.4
21.5
1977________________
40.4
11.4
29.0
1964___
29.9
7.6
22.2
1978________________
41.0
11.5
29.4
1965________________
30.9
7.9
23.0
1979________________
41.7
11.6
30.0
1966________________
32.0
8.2
23.8
1980________________
42.5
11.7
30.8
1967___
33.2
8.5
24.6
1981 ----------------
43.5
11.8
31.7
1968
34.2
8.9
25.4
1982 ----------------
44.6
11.9
32.1
1969___________
35.2
9.2
26.0
1983________________
45.7
12.1
33.7
1970___
36. 1
9.6
26.6
1984________________
47.0
12.6
34.5
1971
37.0
9.9
27.0
1985------------- .__
48.2
13.0
35.2
1972________________
37.7
10.3
27.4
TABLE II-13.-Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex, 1960-$5
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
BATH SEES
ESTIMATES
1950_________________
178,520
180,050
3,060
17.0
4,805
26.7
1,745
9.7
1951_________________
181,580
183,165
3,169
17.3
4,945
27.0
1,777
9.7
1952_________________
1184,749
1186,349
3,199
17.2
4,948
26.6
1,749
9.4
1953_________________
1 187,948
1189,464
3,031
16.0
4,756
25.1
1,724
9.1
1964___
190,979
192,685
3,411
17.7
5,125
26.6
1,714
8.9
1955_________________
194,390
196,108
3,435
17.5
6,048
25.7
1,613
8.2
1966_________________
1197,825
1199,582
3,513
17.6
5,029
25.2
1,516
7.6
1957_________________
201,338
203,126
3,575
17.6
5,159
26.4
1,684
7.8
1958_________________
204,913
206,788
3,749
18.1
5,240
25.3
1,491
7.2
1959_________________
208,662
210,492
3,660
17.4
5,264
25.0
1,604
7.6
1960_________________
212,322
214,228
3,812
17.8
5,341
24.9
1,529
7.1
1961_________________
1216,134
1 217,949
3,629
16.7
5,192
23.8
1,563
7.2
1962_________________
1219,783
1 221,409
3,292
14.9
4,959
22.4
1,667
7.5
1963_________________
1223,055
1224;667
3,224
914.4
4,865
921.7
1,641
27.3
PROJECTIONS
1226, 279
227,900
3,242
14.2
4,805
21.5
1,653
7.3
1963-----------------
229,521
231, 096
3,150
13.6
4,814
20.8
1,664
7.2
232,671
234,204
3,066
13.1
4,743
20.3
1,677
7.2
1967-----------------
235, 737
237, 247
3, 019
12.7
4,706
19.8
1,687
7.1
1968
238,766
240,263
3,014
12.5
4,717
19.6
1,703
7.1
241,770
243,291
3,042
12.5
4,769
19.6
1,727
7.1
244,812
246,360
3,096
12.6
4,853
19.7
1,767
7.1
1971 --------------?-
247,908
249,498
3,179
12.7
4,961
19.9
1,782
7.1
1972 -----------------
251, 087
252, 720
3, 265
12.9
5,078
20.1
1,813
7.2
1973 -----------------
254,352
256, 029
3, 353
13.1
5,202
20.3
1,849
7.2
1974 -----------------
257, 705
259,428
3,445
13.3
5,334
20.6
1,889
7.3
1975
261,150
262, 907
3,513
13.4
5,436
20.7
1, 923
7.3
1976 -------?--------
264, 663
266,450
3,574
13.4
6, 542
20.8
1,968
7.4
1077-----------------
268,237
270, 063
3, 852
13.5
5, 664
20.9
2, 002
7.4
1978-----------------
271.889
273, 757
3, 736
13.6
5,770
21.1
2,034
7.4
1979 -----------------
275,625
277, 525
3,800
13.7
6,888
21.2
2,088
7.5
1980-----------------
279,425
281, 381
3, 871
13.8
5,998
21.3
2,127
7.6
1981-----------------
283,296
285, 269
3,946
13.8
6,098
21.4
2,152
7.6
1982-----------------
287,242
289, 238
3,992
13.8
6,188
21.4
2,196
7.6
1983-----------------
291,234
293, 245
4,022
13.7
6,259
21.3
2,237
7.6
1994-----------------
295, 256
297, 274
4,036
13.8
6,313
21.2
2,277
7.7
1995
299.292
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLic II-13. Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sew, 1950-85-Continued.
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
BOTH SEXES
PROJECTIONS
Series B
1964_________________
1226,279
227,808
3,057
13.4
4,707
20.7
1,650
7.2
1965_________________
229,336
230,805
2,937.
12.7
4,693
19.9
1,866
7.2
1966_________________
232,273
233,684
2,822
12.1
4,491
19.2
1,669
7.1
1967-----------------
235,095
236,488
2,745
11.6
4,423
18.7
1,678
7.1
1968_________________
237,840
239,194
2,708
11.3
4,400
18.4
1,692
7.1
1969_________________
240,548
241,898
2,699
11.2
4,416
18.3
1,717
7.1
1970_________________
243,247
244,604
2,713
11.1
4,461
18.2
1,748
7.1
1971_________________
245,960
247,338
2,756
11.1
4,526
18.3
1,770
7.2
1972_________________
248,716
250,117
2,801
11.2
4,600
18.4
1,799
7.2
1973_________________
261,517
252,939
2,843
11.2
4,678
18.5
1,836
7.8
1974_________________
254,360
255,803
2,886
11.3
4,763
18.6
1,877
7.3
1975_________________
257,246
258,718
2,943
11.4
4,854
18.8
1,911
7.4
1976_________________
260,189
261,689
3,000
11.5
4,948
18.9
1,948
7.4
1977_________________
263,189
264,719
3,060
11.6
5,048
19.1
1,985
7.5
1978_________________
266,249
267,814
3,130
11.7
6,152
19.2
2,022
7.6
1979-----------------
269,370
270,973
3,188
11.8
5,257
19.4
2,089
7.6
1080_________________
272,567
274,188
3,242
11.8
5,355
19.5
2,113
7.7
1981_________________
276,809
277,461
3,304
11.9
6,445
19.6
2,141
7.7
1982_________________
279,113
280,785
3,344
11.9
5,525
19.7
2,181
7.8
1983-----------------
282,457
284,139
3,364
11.8
6,589
19.7
2,225
7.8
1984 ------------------
285,821
287,507
3,371
11.7
5,637
19.6
2,266
7.9
1985-----------------
289,192
-
----
-----
----------
Series C
1984_________________
L 226,279
227,624
2,689
11.8
4, 330
19.0
1,641
7.2
228,968
230,232
2,527
11.0
4,170
18.1
1,643
7.1
1066_ ________________
231, 495
232.680
2, 370
10.2
4, 023
17.3
1, 653
7.1
1967_________________
233,865
234,990
2,249
9.8
3,910
16.8
1,661
7.1
1968_________________
236,114
237.196
2,162
9.1
3,837
16.2
,676
7.1
1969_________________
238,276
239,326
2,100
8.8
3,798
15.9
,698
7.1
1070_________________
240,376
241,403
2,053
8.5
3,783
15.7
,730
7.2
1971_________________
242,429
243,446
2,034
8.4
3,784
15.6
,750
7.2
1972_________________
244,463
245,471
2,015
8.2
3,790
15.4
,776
7.2
1973_________________
246,478
247,470
1,984
8.0
3,798
15.3
,814
7.3
1974_________________
248,462
249,442
1,959
7.9
3,810
15.3
,861
7.4
1975_________________
250,421
261,419
1,096
7.9
3,883
15.4
,887
7.5
1976_________________
262,417
253,435
2.036
8.0
3,958
15.6
,922
7.6
1977_________________
254,453
255,489
2,072
8.1
4,038
15.8
,966
7.7
1978_________________
256,526
257,586
2,122
8.2
4,121
16.0
,999
7.8
1979_______
258,647
269,729
2,163
8.3
4,206
18.2
,043
7.9
1980____
260,810
261,907
2,104
8.4
4,284
16.4
,090
8.0
1981_________________
263,004
264,124
2,239
8.5
4,356
16.5
2,117
8.0
1982_________________
265,243
268,375
2,264
8.5
4,420
16.6
2,156
8 1
1983________________
_
267,507
268,643
2,272
8.5
4,471
18.6
2,199
8.
_____________
1984____
269,779
270,913
2,267
8.4
4,609
16.6
2,242
8.3
1985-----------------
272,046
-
Series D
1064_________________
226,279
227,631
2,504
11.0
4,142
18.2
1,638
7.2
1986-----------------
228,783
229, 931
2,206
10.0
3,931
17.1
1,635
7.1
1966 -----------------
231,079
232,126
2,091
9.0
3,736
16.1
1,645
7.1
1967_________________
233,170
234,132
1,923
8.2
3,574
15.3
1,651
7.1
1968_________________
235,093
235,987
1,787
7.6
3,450
14.6
1,663
7.0
1969_________________
238,880.
237,715
1,670
7.0
3,358
14.1
1,686
7.1
1970_________________
238,560
239,334
1,568
6.6
3,284
13.7
1,716
7.2
1971-----------------
240,118
240,862
1,488,
6.2
3,223
18.4.
1,735
7.2
1972-----------------
241,608
242,810
1,408'
5.8
3,165
13.1
1,757
7.3
1978_________________
243,014
243,669
1,310
5.4
3,107
12.8
1,797
7.4
1974_________________
244,324
244,930
1,211
4.9.
3,048
12.4
1,837
17.5
1975_________________
245,535
246,155
1,240
6.0
3,107
12.6
1,867
7.6
1976_________________
248,775.
247,408
1,265
5.1
3,167.
12.8
1,902
7.7
1977_________________
248,040
248,683
1,286
5.2
3,231
13.0
1,948
7.8
1978-----------------
249,325
249,982
1,314
5.3
3,297
13.2
1,983
7.9
1979_________________
250,639
251,311
1,344
5.3
3,384
13.4
2,020
8.0
1980_________________
261,983
252,661
1,358
5.4
3,427
13.6
2,071
8.2
I Estimates of the total population for 1952, 1953, 1968, and 1961 through 1964 shown here are somewhat
different from the official Soviet estimates for these years because the official figures imply unexplained
residuals. These residuals for years 1980-62 are as follows: 1960 -34,000; 1961, +15,000; and 1982, +85,000.
2 The projections were prepared prior to the release of the vita{rates for 1963. The official rates for 1963 are:
natural increase, 14.0; birth, 21.2; and death, 7.2. Absolute numbers of births and deaths have not yet been
published.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
34 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-13.-Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
BOTH SEES
PROJECTIONS
Series D
1981_________________
253,339
264,031
1,383
5.4
3,485
13.7
2,102
8.3
1982_________________
254,722
255,424
1,403
5.5
3,636
13.8
2,133
8.4
1983_________________
256,125
256,822
1,394
5.4
3,577
13.9
2,183
8.5
1984-----------------
257,519
258,212
1,385
5.4
3,608
14.0
2,223
8.6
1986_________________
258,904
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
MALE
ESTIMATES
1950_________________
77,896
78,697
1,602
20.4
2,475
31.4
873
11.1
1961_________________
79,498
80,333
1,669
20.8
2,547
31.7
878
10.9
1952- ------
81,167
82,014
1,694
20.7
2,548
31.1
854
10.4
1953
82,861
83,670
1,617
19.3
2,449
29.3
832
9.9
1954_________________
84,478
85,389
1,822
21.3
2,639
30.9
817
9.6
1955_________________
86,300
87,220
1,840
21.1
2,600
29.8
760
8.7
1956_________________
88,140
89,082
1,884
21.1
2,590
29.1
706
7.9
1957_________________
90,024
90,989
1,929
21.2
2,657
29.2
728
8.0
1958_________________
91,953
92,964
2,022
21.8
2,699
29.0
677
7.3
1969_________________
93,976
94,944
1,938
20.4
2,711
28.6
773
8.1
1960_________________
95,913
96,926
2,026
20.9
2,761
28.4
725
7.5
1961_________________
97,939
98,909
1,939
19.6
2,874
27.0
735
7.4
1962_________________
99,878
100,761
1,765
17.5
2,554
25.3
789
7.8
1963_________________
101,643
102,515
1,744
17.0
2,505
24.4
761
7.4
PROJECTIONS
Series A
1964_________________
103,387
104,268
1,761
16.9
2,621
24.2
760
7.3
1965_________________
105,148
106,008
1,719
16.2
2,479
23.4
760
7.2
1966_________________
106,867
107,709
1,683
15.6
2,443
22.7
760
7.1
1967_________________
108,550
109,379
1,657
15.1
2,424
22.2
767
7.C
1968_________________
110,207
111,039
1,664
15.0
2,429
21.9
765
6.9
1969_________________
111,871
112,714
1,686
15.0
2,456
21.8
770
6.8
1970_________________
113,557
114,416
1,717
15.0
2,499
21.8
782
6.8
1971_________________
115,274
118,159
1,770
15.2
2,555
22.0
785
6.8
1972_________________
117,044
117,953
1,817
15.4
2,615
22.2
798
6.8
1973_________________
118,861
119,797
1,872
15.6
2,679
22.4
807
6.7
1974_________________
120,733
121,696
1,926
15.8
2,747
22.6
822
6.8
1975_________________
122,658
123,643
1,969
15.9
2,800
22.6
831
6.7
1976 -----------------
124,627
125,631
2,007
16.0
2,854
22.7
847
6.7
1977_________________
126.634
127,660
2,052
16.1
2,912
22.8
860
6.7
1978_________________
128,686
129,735
2,098
16.2
2,971
22.9
873
6.7
1979_________________
130,784
131,851
2,133
16.2
3,032
23.0
899
6.8
1980_________________
132,917
134,003
2,171
16.2
3,089
23.1
918
6.9
1981_________________
135,088
136,195
2,213
16.2
3,140
23.1
927
6.8
1982_________________
137,301
138,419
2,235
16.1
3,186
23.0
961
6.9
1983_________________
139,536
140,664
2,255
16.0
3,223
22.9
968
6.9
1984_________________
141,791
142,926
2,269
15.9
3,251
22.7
982
6.9
1985-----------------
144 060
----------
---`-----
---------
---------
----------
----------
----------
SeresB
g
1964_________________
103,387
104,220
1,666
16.0
2,424
23.3
758
7.3
1965_________________
105,053
105,8'58
1,610
15.2
2,365
22.3
755
7.1
1966_________________
106,663
107,442
1,557
14.5
2,313
21.5
756
7.0
1967_________________
108,220
108,979
1,517
13.9
2,278
20.9
761
7.(
1968_________________
109,737
110,490
1,506
13.6
2,266
20.5
760
6.9
1969_________________
111,243
111,998
1,510
13.5
2,274
20.3
764
6.8
1970_________________
112,763
113,513
1,520
13.4
2,207
20.2
777
6.8
1971_________________
114,273
115,049
1,552
13.5
2,331
20.3
779
6.8
1972_________________
115,825
116,615
1,580
13.5
2,369
20.3
789
6.8
1973_________________
117,405
118,211
1,611
13.6
2,409
20.4
798
6.8
1974_________________
119,016
119,835
1,638
13.7
2,463
20.5
815
6.8
1975_________________
120,654
121,492
1,675
13.8
2,500
20.6
825
6.8
1976_________________
122,329
123,185
1,712
13.9
2,548
20.7
836
6.8
1977_________________
124,041
124,915
1,747
14.0
2,600
20.8
853
6.8
1978_________________
126,788
126,681
1,786
14.1
2,653
20.9
867
6.8
1979-----------------
127,574
128,485
1,821
14.2
2,707
21.1
886
6.9
1980-----------------
129,396
130,319
1,848
14.2
2,768
21.2
910
7.0
1981_________________
131,243
132,184
1,882
14.2
2,804
21.2
922
7.0
1982-----------------
133,125
134,077
1,903
14.2
2,846
21.2
942
7.0
1983_________________
135,028
135,987
1,917
14.1
2,878
21.2
981
7.1
1984_________________
136,945
137,909
1,928
14.0
2,903
21.1
975
7.1
1985-----------------
138,873
----------
----------
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Fe 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
NT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 35
TA13LE II-13, Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sew, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Series C
1964
1965
103,387 104 128
1,477
14.2
2,23
0 21
4
753
----------------
1966
- 104, 864 105, 564
1, 399
13.3
2,14
.
7 20
3
748
7.2
-----------------
1967
106 263 1926
,
'
6
1,326
12.4
2,07
.
2 19
4
746
7.1
----------------
1968-----------------
1969
107
589 10
8
,2 20
108,850 109,463
110
0
1, 261
1,226
11.7
11.2
2, 01
1, 97
.
4 18.6
6 18.1
763
750
7.0
7.0
9
6
1970
,
76 110 677
111278 111
869 869
1,202
1
181
10.9
1,956
17.7
754
.
6.8
1971
1972--------
1973
,
112,459 113,050
113,641 114 229
114,
,
1,182
178
1
10.6
10.5
10.3
1, 948
1,949
1,952
17.4
17.2
17.1
787
767
776
6.9
6.8
6
8
1974
817 115,403
1171
:
10.1
1,956
16
9
785
.
6
8
-----------------
1975
115, 988 116, 569
1,161
10.0
1,962
.
16.8
801
.
6
9
-----------------
1976
117,149 117, 743
1,188
10.1
2,000
17
0
812
.
-----------------
1977
118,337 118,946
,
,
1,218
10. 2
2,038
.
17
1
820
6.9
6
9
-----------------
1978
119,555 120
175
120
794
1
239
10.3
2,080
.
17.3
841
.
7
0
1979
1980
,
121 428
122062 122, 710
123
357 124 012
1,268
1, 296
1
310
10.4
10.6
2,122
2,166
17.5
17.7
8
854
.
7.
7.00
1
1981-----------------
1982
,
124 687 125,334
,
1,333
10.6
10.6
2,206
2
243
17.8
17
9
896
910
7.2
7
---------
1983
126 000 126,675
1,360
10.7
,
2, 276
.
18
0
926
.3
7
-------------
1984
127,350 128,029
1,357
10.6
2,302
.
18
0
046
.3
7
4
--------- ---
1985
128, 707 129, 388
1, 362
6
1
2, 322
.
17
9
960
.
7
4
-----------------
130,069
----------
0
--------
.
- ----------
------
.
----------
Series D
1964
1965
103,387 104, 78
104
769 105
4 01o
1, 382
13.3
2,133
20.5
7'1
7.2
1966 -----------------
1967
,
:
106,050 106,641
107
232 107
779
1, 281
1,182
12.2
11.1
2, 024
1, 924
19.2
18.0
743
742
7.0
7.0
1968
,
,
1, 094
10.2
184
17.1
747
6
9
1969
108326 108, 843
109
359 109
850
1, 033
9.5
1, 777
16.3
744
.
6.8
1970-----------------
1971
,
,
110,340 110,807
111
273 111
723
981
933
8.9
8.4
1.728
1,111
15.7
16.3
747
758
6.8
6.8
1972
,
,
900
8,1
1,660
14.9
760
6
8
112,173 112,606
,
865
7
7
1
630
14
5
7
.
1973
1974
113
038 113.450
824
.
7.3
,
1, 600
.
14.1
65
776
6.8
6
8
1975
113,862 114,251
114
639 115
030
777
6.8
1, 570
13.7
793
.
6.9
1976
,
,
800
7.0
1, 600
13.9
800
7
0
1977
115439 115,850
116,260 116,678
821
835
7.1
7
2
1,631
1
664
14.1
14
3
810
.
7.0
1978
1979
117095 117,521
852
.
7.2
,
1,698
.
14.4
829
846
7.1
7
2
198
117,947 118,385
876
7.4
1732
14
6
856
.
0
1981
118823 119262
878
7.4
1
765
.
14
8
887
7.2
1982
119 701 120,149
895
7.4
,
1
705
.
14
9
900
7.4
7
5
-----------
198
120, 596 121,050
908
7.5
,
1
821
.
16
0
913
.
3
1984
121,504 121,957
905
7.4
,
1
842
.
15
1
937
7.5
7
1985
122,409 122,863
123,317
908
7.4
,
1,858
.
15.1
950
.7
7.7
----------
--------- ----------
----------
--------- ----------
ESTIMATES
1950-----------------
1951
100,624
624 101,353
458
1,458
14.4 2
330
23
0
872 8
6
---------------
--
1052
102,082 102,832
1,500
,
14.6 2,398
.
23.3
.
890 8
7
-
----------------
1953
103, 582 104,335
1,605
14.4 2,400
23.0
.
895 8
6
-----------------
1954
105, 087 105,704
1,414
13.4 2,307
21.8
.
892 8
4
-----------------
1965
106,501 107, 296
1,589
14.8 2,486
23.2
.
897 8
4
-----------------
1956
108,090 108,888
1,595
14.8 2,448
22
5
.
853 7
8
-----------------
1957
109,685 110500
111,314 112
137
1, 629
14. 7 2,439
.
22.1
.
811
7.3
1968-----------------
1959
1960
,
112,960 113, 824
114,687 116,548
1,646
1,727
1,722
14.7 2,502
16.2 2,541
14.9 2,553
22.3
22.3
22.1
866 7.6
814
7.2
831 7
2
1061
116, 409 117, 302
1,786
15.2 2, 690
22
1
.
804 6
9
-----------------
1982
118,195 119,040
1, 890
14.2 2
518
.
21
2
.
828 7
0
-----------------
1963
119,885 120, 649
121, 412 122,152
1,627
1,480
,
12.7 2,406
12.1 2,360
.
19.9
19.3
.
878
7.3
880 7.2
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
TABLE II-13. Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sew, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands ; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
FEMALE
PROJECTIONS
Series A
1964_________________
122,892
123,633
1,481
12.0
2,374
19.2
893
7.2
1966_________________
124,873
125,089
1,431
11.4
2,335
18,7
904
7.2
1966_________________
125,804
128,496
1,383
10.9
2,800
18.2
917
7.2
1967_________________
127,187
127,868
1,362
10.7
2,282
17.8
920
7.2
1968_________________
128,549
129,224
1,350
10.4
2,288
17.7
938
7.3
1969_________________
129,890
130,577
1,356
10.4
2,313
17.7
957
7.3
1970_________________
131,255
131,945
1,379
10.5
2,354
17.8
975
7.4
1971_________________
132,634
133,339
1,409
10.6
2,406
18.0
997
7.5
1972_________________
134,043
134,767
1,448
10.7
2,463
18.3
1,015
7.5
1973_________________
135,491
138,232
1,481
10.9
2,523
18.5
1,042
7.6
1974_________________
136,972
137,732
1,520
11.0
2,687
18.8
1,087
7.7
1975_________________
138,492
139,264
1,544
11.1
2,636
18.9
1,092
7.8
1976_________________
140,038
140,820
1,567
11.1
2,688
19.1
1,121
8.0
1977_______
141,803
142,403
1,600
11.2
2,742
19.3
1,142
8.0
1978_______
143,203
144,022
1,638
11.4
2,799
19.4
1,161
8.1
1979_________________
144,841
145,675
1,887
11.4
2,856
19.6
1,189
8.2
1980_________________
146,508
147,358
1,700
11.5
2,909
19.7
1,209
8.2
1981_________________
148,208
149,076
1,733
11.0
2,958
19.8
1,225
8.2
1982_________________
149,941
150,820
1,757
11.6
3,002
19.9
1,245
8.3
1983_________________
151,698
152,582
1,767
11.6
3,036
19.9
1,260
8.3
1984_________________
153,465
154,349
1,767
11.4
3,062
19.8
1,295
8.4
1985-----------------
155,232
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
Series D
1964_________________
122,892
123,688
1,391
11.3
2,283
18.5
892
7.2
1965_________________
124,283
124,947
1,327
10.6
2,228
17.8
901
7.2
1966_________________
125,610
126,243
1,265
10.0
2,178
17.3
913
7.2
1967_________________
126,875
127,489
1,228
9.6
2,145
16.8
917
7.2
1968_________________
128,103
128,704
1,202
9.3
2,134
16.6
932
7.2
1989_________________
129,305
129,900
1,189
9.2
2,142
16.5
963
7.3
1970_________________
130,494
131,091
1,193
9.1
2,164
16.5
971
7.4
1971_________________
181,687
132,289
1,204
9.1
2,195
16.6
991
7.5
1972_________________
132,891
133,502
1,221
9.1
2,231
16.7
1,010
7.6
1973_________________
134,112
134,728
1,232
9.1
2,269
16.8
1,037
7.7
1974_________________
135,344
185,968
1,248
9.2
2,310
17.0
1,062
7.8
1975_________________
136,592
137,228
1,268
9.2
2,354
17.2
1,086
7.9
1976_________________
137,860
138,504
1,288
9.3
2,400
17.3
1,112
8.0
1977_________________
139,148
139,805
1,313
9.4
2,448
17.5
1,135
8.1
1978_________________
140,461
141,133
1,344
9.5
2,499
17.7
1,155
8.2
1979_________________
141,806
142,489
1,367
,
9.6
2,550
17.9
1,183
8.3
1980_________________
143,172
143,869
394
1
9.7
2,697
18.1
1,203
8.4
1981_________________
144,566
145,277
1,422
9.8
2,641
18.2
1,219
8.4
1982_________________
145,988
146,709
1,441
9.8
2,680
18.3
1,239
8.4
1983_________________
147,429
148,163
1,447
9.8
2,711
18.3
1,264
8.5
1984_________________
148,878
149,598
1,443
9.6
2,734
18.3
11291
8.6
1985-----------------
160,319
----------
----------
----------
----------
------ ---
----------
----------
Series C
1984_________________
122,892
123,498
1,212
,
9.8
2,100
17.0
888
7.2
1965_________________
124,104
,
124, 668
1
128
9.0
2,023
16.2
895
7.2
1966_________________
125
232
125754
1,044
8.3
1,951
15.5
907
7.2
1987_________________
126,276
126,770
988
7.8
1,898
15.0
908
7.2
1968_________________
127,264
127,732
936
7.3
1,861
14.6
925
7.2
1969_________________
128,200
128,649
898
7.0
1,842
14.3
944
7.3
1970____________
129,098
129,534
872
6.7
1,835
14.2
963
7.4
1971____________
129,970
130,396
852
8.5
1,835
14.1
983
7.5
1972_________________
130,822
131,242
839
8.4
1,838
14.0
999
7.6
1973_______
131,661
132,068
813
6.2
1,842
,
13.9
1,029
7.8
1974_______
132,474
132,873
798
6.0
1
848
13.9
1,050
7.9
1975_________________
133,272
183,676
808
8.0
1,883
14.1
1,075
8.0
1976_-_-------------
134,080
134,489
818
6.1
1,920
14.3
1,102
8.2
1977_________________
134,898
135,315
833
6.2
1,958
14.5
1,126
8.8
1978_________________
135,731
136,158
,
854
6.3
1,999
14.7
1,145
8.4
1979_________________
138,585
019
137
868
6.3
2,040
14.9
1,172
8.6
1980_______
137,463
137,895
884
6.4
2,078
15.1
1,194
8.7
1981_______
138,337
138,790
906
6.5
2,113
15.2
1,207
8.7
1982___
139,243
139,700
914
8.6
2,144
15.3
1,230
8.8
1983__________
140,157
140,815
915
6.5
2,169
15.4
1,254
8.9
1984_________________
141,072
141,525
905
6.4
2,187
15.5
1,282
9.1
1985-----------------
141,977
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
?---------
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R00010034000.i-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-13,-Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sea, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands ; ratios per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
FEMALE
PROJECTIONS
Series D
1964_________________
1965
122,892
014
124
123,453
124
522
1,122
1
015
9.1
8.2
2,009
1,907
16.3
15.3
887
892
7.2
7.2
_________________
1966_________________
1987
,
126,029
938
126
,
125,484
126,363
,
909
829
7.2
6.6
1,812
1,733
14.4
13.7
903
904
7.2
7.2
__________
_
1968_________________
1969
,
126,767
127
521
127,144
127
866
754
689
5.9
6.4
1,673
1,828
13.2
12.7
919
939
7.2
7.3
______________
1970_________________
1971
,
128,210
128
845
,
128,528
129,139
835
588
4.9
4.6
1,593
1,663
12.4
12.1
968
975
7.5
7.6
_________________
1972_________________
1973
,
129,433
129
976
120,705
130
219
543
486
4.2
3.7
1,535
1,607
11.8
11.6
992
1,021
7.6
7.8
_________________
1974_________________
1975
,
180,482
896
130
,
130,679
131,116
434
440
3.3
3.4
1,478
1,507
11.3
11.5
1,044
1,067
8.0
8.1
_________________
1976__________
1977
,
131,336
131
780
131,558
132, 005
444
450
3.4
3.4
1,536
1,667
11.7
11.9
1,092
1,117
8.3
8.5
_________________
1978_________________
1979
,
132,230
692
132
132, 461
132,926
482
468
3.5
3.5
1, 599
1,632
12.1
12.3
1,137
1,164
8.6
8.8
_________________
1980_________________
981
,
133,160
638
133
638 133
133,399
882
133
478
488
3.6
3.6
1,682
1,690
12.6
12.6
1,184
1,202
8.9
9.0
1
-
1982_________________
1983
,
,
134,126
134
621
,
134,374
134
866
495
489
3.7
3.6
1,715
1,735
12.8
12.9
1,220
1,246
9.1
9.2
____________
1984_________________
,
135,110
,
135,349
477
3.5
1,760
12.9
1,273
19.4
1985-----------------
135,587
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
-----------
----------
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 ApD,roved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 43
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 PP For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
4 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R00010034001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
(:6 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R00010034000Q1-3
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 ADQroved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE VI-7.-Soviet comparisons of physical output per production worker
selected industries, United States and U.S.S.R., selected years, 1939-69
[U.S. level=100; NA indicates data not available]
Industry (products)
(1)
U.S.S.R.
1940;
(2)
U.S.S.R.
1950;
(3)
U.S.S.R.
1955;
(4)
U.S.S.R.
1956;
(5)
U.S.S.R.
1957; U.S.
1956
(6)
U.S.S.R.
1959;
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
1939
1947
1954
1964
(a)
(b)
1958
Ferrous metallurgy:
Pig iron, steel, and rolled products
48.3
41.8
54.6
49.1
53.0
51.5
59.7
Steel and rolled products___________
44.4
41.0
52.9
47.3
51.1
49.7
59.9
Steel__________________________
46.3
43.2
54.7
48.7
53.2
51.9
62.4
Rolled products_________
41.7
38.2
49.7
45.5
-48.4
46.9
56.7
Iron ore ________________________________
38.6
25.9
41.6
43.9
37.3
36.4
35.1
Coke___________________________________
33.7
30.0
46.1
49.1
42.4
41.4
48.6
Coal___________________________________
51.3
31.8
35.9
38.3
28.2
28.8
32.0
Of which:
Underground mining___________
53.7
34.7
36.7
40.3
28.6
28.6
32.1
Open-pit mining_______________
41.7
47.4
79.5
98.0
78.2
78.2
94.5
Petroleum refining (benzine, kerosene,
ligroin, and diesel fuel)______________
48.2
41.0
37.0
43.4
42.1
42.1
46.2
Metal-cutting machine tools____________
NA
47.3
74.9
74.4
69.6
69.5
62.0
Synthetic rubber_______________________
NA
18.6
17.5
17.6
15.6
15.6
12.1
Artificial fiber__________________________
23.4
11.9
17.4
18.5
19.8
19.8
20.6
Logging________________________________
29.1
26.3
32.2
28.9
30.7
34.1
36.9
Lumber_______________________________
55.9
66.5
67.6
63.1
73.8
73.8
75.4
Paper and paperboard_________________
39.8
33.3
39.7
42.1
39.6
39.6
44.4
Cement________________________________
22.8
28.1
34.3
35.5
32.9
32.9
34.8
Construction brick_____________________
45.5
35.7
42.7
43.5
40.2
46.2
57.9
Lime and gypsum______________________
27.1
17.4
21.6
22.6
22.0
22.0
24.8
Cotton fabrics__________________________
39.7
38.7
41.3
37.7
38.5
38.2
42.0
Woolen fabrics__________________________
50.3
45.2
45.6
45.1
41.5
42.5
41.0
Silk and synthetic fabrics______________
16.5
14.4
27.7
38.0
42.3
41.9
37.4
Footwear (excluding rubber)___________
33.1
37.5
41.4
44.8
44.0
44.0
51.1
Rubber footwear -------------------- ___
67.4
126.1
81.0
79.9
78.9
78.9
72.6
Meat (including 1st category sub-
products) ----------------------------
45.7
41.1
48.2
53.2
46.5
46.5
57.2
Dairy products_________________________
'39.8
20.8
43.4
53.0
53.1
52.2
50.6
Vegetable oil___________________________
57.1
30.8
34,9
30.3
27.5
27.5-
30.2
Flour__________________________________
40.1
39.0
60.4
60.7
60.8
60.8
57.6
Macaroni___ ___________________
52.6
66.3
57.2
51.9
55.3
55.3
61.8
Bread and bakery products____________
195.1
153.3
151.5
147.4
143.5
143.5
135.1
Confectionery products________________
57.9
52.7
51.8
52.1
56.5
46.5
48.9
Beer___________________________________
26.8
38.0
33.2
35.7
37.8
37.8
41.0
Margarine______________________________
NA
NA
NA
17.1
NA
NA
NA
Source, by columns, follows:
Cols. 1, 2, 3, b(b), 6: A. I. Fats, Proizvoditel'nost"truda v SSSR I glavnykh kapitalisticheskikh saran
(Labor Productivity in the U.S.S.R. and in the Main Capitalist Countries), Moscow, 1964, p. 149.
Col. 4: "A Comparison of the Level of Labor Productivity in U.S.S.R. Industry and in the -
Main Capitalist Countries," 9otsiali8ficheskiy trud (Socialist labor), No. 1, January 1959, pp. 46-47.
Col. 5a: -, "A Comparison of the Level of Labor Productivity in U.S.S.R. Industry and in the
Main Capitalist Countries," in V. A. Zhamin (Ed.), Ekonomicheskoye sorevnovaniye sotsializma s kapital-
izmon (Economic Competition of Socialism With Capitalism), Moscow, 1962, pp. 200-201. For a non-
Soviet analysis of these data, see Gertrude Schroeder, "Soviet Industrial Labor Productivity," in U.S.
Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, Washington, 1962, pp.
137-162.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
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 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
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 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
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7iV CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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CHAPTER VII
FEMALE EMPLOYMENT
INTRODUCTION
One of the most distinctive features of the Soviet economy is the
prominent role of women. Women make up not only a majority of
the unskilled fieldworkers on collective and state farms, where they
perform much the same work as their grandmothers a century ago,:
but also a majority of the semiprofessionals and professionals who
pursue careers in the offices, hospitals, schools, and research labora-
tories of the country. Women are an integral and essential part of
all sectors of the Soviet labor force and can be expected to continue to
be major contributors to Soviet economic growth and development
in future decades. A number of factors account for this phenomenon.
CHANGES IN THE SEx RATIO OF THE SOVIET POPULATION
Demographic factors have played, and will continue to play, an
important part in determining the role of women in the Soviet econ-
omy. War, revolution, and political repression over the past five
decades drastically altered the sex ratio in the Soviet Union in favor
of women. (See table VII-1). In 1897, when there were 99 males
for every 100 females, the ratio was normal. But, by 1926, as a
result of World War I and the civil war, there were 5 million fewer
males than females, and the ratio was 94. By the census of 1939,
the shortage of males had increased to 7 million, and the sex ratio
had declined to 92, reflecting the greater adverse impact of collecti
vization and the political purges on the male population. The most
drastic change came with the Second World War which increased
the male deficit to an estimated 26 million and reduced the sex ratio
to only 74. Improvement in the sex ratio since the end of the war
has been gradual, and the 1939 level of 92 is not likely to be regained
until 1980.
These imbalances in the sex ratio of the population as a whole are
sharply reflected in the 16- to 59-year or "working age" group. (See
table VII-2.) In 1946, for example, the female population in the 16 to
59 age group exceeded the male by 20 million or 50 percent. At the
time of the 1959 census the excess was still more than 15 million. As a
result, demographic pressures compelling the extensive utilization of
women in the labor force have continued to be insistent. Thus, the
participation of women has remained high, although normally, as a
country industrializes and becomes more urban, participation rates
would decline.
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92 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
HIGH RATES OF FEMALE PARTICIPATION IN THE LABOR FORCE
The relationship between population and employment by 5-year
age groups is shown in figure VII-1, which is based upon 1959 census
tables. What is most striking is the continuing high rate of partici-
pation of Soviet women in the major child-bearing and child-rearing
years of 20 to 39. Altogether, 78.8 percent of the able-bodied women
(aged 16 to 54) were in the labor force. Even among the overaged
women (over 55), 45.8 percent were in the labor force. (See table
VII-3.) This high rate for older women is a result of many shifting
to the private subsidiary sector of agriculture after withdrawing
from employment in the socialized sector of the economy.
What accounts for these high rates of participation? We have
already discussed the sex imbalance. Unquestionably economic
pressures compelling women to work to make ends meet also play a
major role. Their effect is intensified by the shortage of males which
has left a large number of women unmarried or widowed, and these
women cannot avoid working to support themselves and their de-
pendents. Furthermore, the party and Government have succeeded
in altering social custom and public attitudes toward the employment
of women. At the present time, few jobs are inaccessible to women,
and a woman is likely to feel defensive if she does not work. Also,
the Government has provided maternity leaves and benefits and
child-care facilities such as nurseries, kindergartens, and summer
camps, all of which make it easier for a woman to combine work with
family responsibilities. Approximately 12 percent of the children of
nursery age and 20 percent of the children of kindergarten age can be
accommodated in permanent child-care facilities at the present time.
Most of the permanent facilities are to be found in urban centers
while seasonal facilities are largely in rural areas. In a major city,
such as Moscow, more than two-fifths of the children of nursery and
kindergarten age are cared for in permanent child-care facilities, but
in most communities there are long lists of children waiting for admit-
tance. For many Russians, a grandmother continues to provide the
only available child care.
FAMILY VERSUS WORD
Although child-care facilities, or grandmothers, lighten the burden
of housework for some mothers, the Government has become increas-
ingly concerned about the heavy burden of housework borne by
working wives and mothers. The small supply, not only of household
aids such as vacuum cleaners and washing machines, which are taken
for granted here in the United States, but also of more fundamental
services such as hot or even running water, make cleaning, laundering,
food preparation, and dishwashing exceedingly onerous and time
consuming tasks. Also, shopping under difficult Soviet conditions
and in the absence of refrigeration in most households is extremely
time consuming. Heavy household burdens, combined with the
demands of a career, cause many professional women to have only
one or, at most, two children. There seems little doubt that one of
the unintended effects of the high proportion of married women work-
ing in the Soviet Union is a reduced birth rate.' Furthermore, the
I Data recently published in Vestnik statistiki, No. 1, 1966, p. 96, shows that among the worker and em-
ployee socioeconomic group, the birth rate of women working in the 20- to 39-year age group was about a third
less than. that of women who did not work.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 93
distraction of caring for a husband and children is undoubtedly one
of the major factors explaining the lower average level of professional
achievement of Soviet women compared to Soviet men.
WOMEN'S SHARE IN THE LABOR FORCE
The contribution of women to the Soviet labor force is so extensive
because of the combined effect of women substantially outnumbering
men in the older age groups of the population and an unusually high
rate of participation of women in the labor force in all age groups,
including the older. (See fig. VII-2.) The contribution of women
is particularly large in the age groups over 35 where, in most 5-year
age groups, women account for 55 percent or more of the labor force.
These are, of course, the age groups upon which the heaviest responsi-
bilities of economic leadership would normally fall.
An overall view of the share of women in different sectors of the
Soviet economy is provided by the 1959 census. Among those in the
labor force as a whole (including the armed forces and the private
subsidiary economy), women made up 51.9 percent of the total, 50.2
percent of the able-bodied age group, and 67.5 percent of the overaged
group. (See table VII-3.) In the civilian labor force the percentages
were 53.7, 52.1, and 67.5. Women made up 46.7 percent of the
workers and employees and 56.1 percent of the collective farmers,
while in private subsidiary agriculture more than 90 percent of the
persons employed were women..
Although the number of women collective farmers has declined sev-
eral million since the 1930's, the 17.4 million women collective farmers
remained the largest single group of women employed in the Soviet
economy. (See table VII-4.) The bulk of these women were em-
ployed in unskilled, nonspecialized agricultural work where they
made up two-thirds of the labor force. The number of women work-
ers and employees increased eleven fold from 3.1 to 34.6 million dur-
ing the 35-year period since 1929 (see table VII-5), and the propor-
tion of women increased from 27 to 49 percent. The largest. group
among these is women industrial workers, who numbered 11.3 million
in 1963, a tenfold increase since 1929. A more detailed breakdown
for women employed in all industry is given in table VII-6. The
highest percentages of women are to be found in the food, textile, and
clothing industries, traditional strongholds of women. Even in the
ferrous metallurgical, machine-building, and metalworking industries,
however, 30 to 40 percent of the workers and employees are women.
RISING QUALITY OF THE FEMALE LABOR FORCE
Although the bulk of Russian women are. employed in unskilled
or semiskilled jobs, since the Revolution there has been a substantial
improvement in the quality of the female labor force. In the 1920's
the educational level of working women of all types lagged sub-
stantially behind that of men. By 1959 the census showed that
illiteracy had been virtually eliminated in the working ages and that
the gap between the educational attainment of men and women had
been substantially closed. (See table VII-7.) However, female
collective farmers continued to lag far behind the males in educational
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94 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
attainment. The gap also remains substantial between male and
female workers with a secondary specialized or higher education.
In addition, among those with less than 4 years of schooling, a group
still large in Russia, there are almost three times as many women as
men.
Of particular interest in the light of its importance to Soviet science
and technology is the proportion of "candidate" and "doctoral"
degrees which have been earned by women. In 1961 women earned
29 percent of the former and 11 percent of the latter. (See table
VII-8.) Over the past decade the increase in the percentage of
doctoral degrees is particularly impressive.
TRAINING OF WOMEN PROFESSIONALS
The improvement in the educational level of women has been
achieved through the expansion in the enrollment of women at all
levels of education. In secondary specialized educational institutions,
enrollment increased more than sixfold, from 72,000 in 1927 to 448,000
in 1940. (See table VII-9.) Since 1940 the enrollment has more
than doubled, reaching 985,000 in 1963. The growth in enrollment
in higher education has been equally impressive, rising almost seven-
fold from 48,000 in 1927 to 330,000 in 1940. (See table VII-10.)
Between 1940 and 1963, enrollment increased almost two and a half
times, reaching 784,000 in 1963. The proportion of women in second-
ary educational institutions rose from 37.6 percent in 1927 to 54.6
percent in 1940. However, after reaching a wartime peak of almost
70 percent in 1945, the percentage of women has declined to a level
between 46 and 49 percent in recent years. In higher education the
proportion of women increased from 28.5 percent in 1927 to 58 percent
in 1940. From a wartime peak of 77 percent in 1945 the proportion
of women enrolled has declined to a level between 42 and 43 percent
in recent years. The present level of female enrollment is, therefore,
some 10 percentage points below the level which would be expected
from the proportion of males and females in the college-age population.
A careful reading of the admissions regulations of recent yearsshows
that they favor applicants with military service or work experience
and, as a result, intentionally or unintentionally, tend to discriminate
against women.
From the start of the industrialization drive in the late 1920's, the
proportion of women enrolled in secondary specialized and higher
educational institutions has increased substantially. The highest
proportions by far are in the fields of health and education, fields
which have been popular with women for years. The biggest increases
in the proportion enrolled were made in the industrial (engineering)
field where women now make up approximately one-third of the
enrollment in secondary specialized institutions, and in agricultural
sciences where they make up almost two-thirds of the enrollment.
In higher educational institutions the rate of increase was rapid in
the latter two fields and also in the socioeconomic field. Compre-
hensive data have not been published on the proportion of women in
higher education enrolled in the various science fields, but such infor-
mation as is available suggests that, among the sciences, women make
up substantially more than half of the students enrolled in biology
and chemistry, the most popular science fields for women.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. U0
At the graduate level, the proportion of women students is smaller,
and they now make up about one-fourth of the enrollment. (See
table VII-11.) A sampling of advanced degrees awarded in the
1962-64 period shows a heavy concentration in the fields of science
and technology. Approximately 77 percent of both candidate and
doctoral degrees were awarded in these two areas. The sample (over
9,000 candidate degrees) indicated that women received 28 percent of
the candidate degrees granted in all fields. The highest percentages
among the sciences were in the fields of biology (53 percent), medicine
(47 percent), and chemistry (38 percent). The lowest percentages
were in physics and mathematics (17 percent) and the technical
sciences (12 percent). Of the doctoral degrees sampled (almost 900)
during the same period, women received 21 percent. The distribution
among science fields followed roughly the same pattern as that for
candidate degrees.
A MAJORITY OF PROFESSIONALS ARE WOMEN
Perhaps the most distinctive and certainly the most appealing
feature of the utilization of women in the Soviet labor force is their
heavy representation in white-collar occupations and in the profes-
sions. Today women comprise more than half the labor force em-
ployed in what the Soviets classify as "mental" work. About half
of the 11 million women in this category have a secondary specialized
or higher education. The proportion of women among specialists
with a secondary specialized education is large, amounting to 62
percent in 1963. (See table VII-12.) Among professionals with a
higher education, the proportion is 52 percent. (See table VII-13.)
Thus, women form a clear majority of the professional and semi-
professional labor force in the Soviet Union. Among specialists with
a secondary specialized education, women dominate the fields of
medicine, schoolteaching and the category "statisticians, planners,
and commodity specialists." Among women professionals with a
higher education, women form a majority of physicians, teachers at
higher levels, and the category "economists, economist-statisticians,
and commodity specialists." The smallest proportion of women is in
engineering, but even here women make up 31 percent of the total.
IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN SCIENTIFIC WORKERS
The number of women scientific workers of all types has increased
rapidly and has grown fourfold since 1947 to a total of 219,000 in
1964. (See table VII-14.) Those of a sufficient rank to possess
academic titles have increased in number at a slower pace and now
comprise a fifth of the total (see table VII-15.) Women are well
represented in higher educational institutions (see table VII-16) and
in scientific research. institutions (see table VII-17.) In the former
women made up approximately a third of the professional staffs in
1960 while in the latter almost two-fifths. The proportion of women
professionals employed in higher educational institutions was nearly
the same in 1947, the only time that data showing the proportion
of women in the various academic fields were published. The pattern
shown by these figures is probably much the same today. In 1947
women made up two-thirds of the teachers of literature; almost half
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96 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
those in the fields of medicine, biology, and chemistry, and two-
fifths of those in education. Again, the strikingly high proportion
of women in medicine and certain science fields is evident. The
proportions in history, geography, geology, and agriculture were
between 20 and 30 percent. In the combined field of physics and
mathematics approximately a fifth of the staff were women. The
proportions in economics and law were still lower. The smallest
proportion was in the technical sciences where women made up only
a tenth of the staff.
ADVANCEMENT OF WOMEN
Although women are well represented in all the major professions in
the Soviet Union, including the fields of science and technology, the
prospects for a woman's professional advancement are less favorable
than those of a man. The smaller proportion of women in the higher
professional ranks is clearly shown in tables VII-15, 16, and 17. For
example, table VII-15 shows the diminishing proportion of women as
one ascends the ranks in higher educational institutions. Women
make up 41 percent of assistant professors and instructors of lower
rank, 24 percent of associate professors, and 11 percent of full pro-
fessors. In academic administration, women make up 12 percent of
the department heads, 9 percent of the deans, and 5 percent of the
directors of higher educational institutions and their deputies. Even
in fields which women dominate, such as elementary and secondary
school teaching, the proportion of women declines as the level of grade
and administrative responsibility increases. (See table VII-18.) It
is clear that in all fields women are not so well represented in the more
responsible positions as they should be. Far too many become lodged
at intermediate levels of achievement.
The reasons why more women are not found in the higher ranks are
complex. Unquestionably women are more distracted from their pro-
fessional activities than men by family responsibilities. Despite
smaller families and increased child-care facilities, the conflict between
career and family is a real problem for many professional women.
Furthermore, the competition for higher level positions is intense, and
men are better able and seem more inclined to persist in the struggle
for advancement. Discrimination against women, perforce covert,
does not appear to be so important a factor.
For complex reasons "set forth" at length in the monograph from
which this discussion is drawn, the Soviets have not utilized their
women as effectively as they might in the more responsible positions.
Nevertheless, it is evident from this brief survey that the potential
of the younger generation of women has been realized to a remarkable
degree in the Soviet Union. In the fields of science and technology
in particular, talents which are wasted in the United States and other
Western nations, are developed and put to use, contributing not only
to women's own development but to the development of the economy
as well.
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 Approved ForcW
AQ~p4NIq*1WP ,b@0PA 46 003401-3
The tables which follow have been selected from a monograph
Women in the Soviet Economy; Their Role in Economic, Scientific, anc
Technical Development, prepared for the Office of Economic and Man-
power Studies of the National Science Foundation. Much fuller
treatment of all aspects of the role of women in the Soviet economy,
particularly in science and technology, may be found in this mono-
graph, which will soon be published by the National Science Founda-
tion as a book.
TABLE VII-1.-Males per 100 females in the population of Russia and the Soviet
Union, selected years, 1897-1980
Age
1897
1926
1939
1946
1950
1959
1970
1980
All ages_____________________________
98.9
93.5
91.9
74.3
76.2
81.9
87.3
91.7
Under 16 years______________________
100.1
101.2
101.3
99.5
100.8
103.6
105.1
105.6
16 to 34 years________________________
96.9
89.8
96.1
72.0
79.5
93.8
101.0
103.7
35 to 59 years________________________
100.7
90.4
80.1
59.1
59.1
60.6
75.1
87.7
60 years and over____________________
95.5
78.8
66.1
51.9
49.7
50.8
49.0
49.5
Source: 1897-Tsentral'nyi statisticheskii komitet, Obshchii sued po Imperil rezul'tatov razrabotki dannykh
pervoi vseobshchei perepisi naeelenila, vol.1, St. Petersburg, 1905, pp. 56-8: 1926-Tsentral'noe Statisticheskoe
upravlenie, Vsesoiuzraaia peripisi naeelenii? 1956 goda, vol. XVII, Moscow, 1929, pp. 46-8: 1939-Michael K.
Roof, unpublished working paper, Library of Congress, 1964; 1946-Estimate obtained by "reviving" the
1950 population to 1946; 1950-James W. Brackett, "Demographic trends and population policy in the Soviet
Union." Dimensions o f Soviet Economic Power, Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, Washing-
ton, 1962, pp. 564-5; 1959-Based on distribution appearing in Tsentral'noe Statisticheskoe upravlenie pri
Sovete ministrov SSSR, Itogi vsesoiuznoi perepisi naseleniia 1969 goda: SS9R, Moscow, 1961, p. 52 and
other official sources; 1970 and 1980-U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Foreign Demo-
graphic Analysis Division, Estimates and Projections of the Population of the U.S.S.R. and of the Communist
Countries of Eastern Europe, by Age and Sex, Washington, 1964.
TABLE VII-2.-Population of "working age" in Russia and the Soviet Union,
selected years, 1897-1980
[In thousands]
Year
Population 16 to b9 years
Excess of
Percentage
female
female
Both sexes
Male
Female
population
___________________________
1897_
66,056
32,772
33,823
1,051
51.2
_
____________________
1926
78,813
37,334
41,479
4,145
52.6
_________
1939_
-
--------------------
94,265
44,482
49,783
5,301
52.8
-----
-
_______________________
1946
100,928
40,102
60,826
20,724
60.3
______
_________________________
1950_
_
106,710
43,820
62,890
19,070
68.9
_
_
______________________
1959
125,615
66,089
70,526
16,437
56.1
_______
________________________
_
1970
139,496
64,979
74,517
9,538
53.4
__
__
1980_____________________________
164,023
80,104
83,919
3,815
51.2
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6/g3fR T - O ?t 000100340001-3
TABLE VII-3.-Percentage of females in the population of the U.S.S.R. by socio-
economic category and age group, Jan. 15, 1959
[Leaders indicate negligible or nonexistent]
All ages
Under-aged
Able-bodied
age
Over-aged
Per-
Per-
Per-
Per-
Per-
Per-
Per-
Per-
centage
tentage
tentage
tentage
tentage
tentage
tentage
tentage
of
distri-
of
distri-
of
distri-
of
distri-
women
bution
women
bution
women
bution
women
button
Total population____________________
55.0
100.0
49.1
100.0
54.0
100.0
74.0
100.0
Total labor force_____________________
61.9
49.3
48.0
.8
50.2
75.8
67.6
38.3
Armed forces------------------------
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
--------
Civilian labor force__________________
53.7
49.3
48.0
.8
52.1
75.8
87.5
38.3
Socialized sector___________________
49.9
41.4
47.9
.8
49.7
68.3
62.6
16.2
Workers and employees----------
48.7
25.6
46.3
.2
46.7
43.9
45.5
5.0
Nonagricultural branches------
47.3
23.2
50.8
.1
47.4
39.9
45.8
4.8
Agricultural branches---------
41.0
2.4
42.2
.1
40.9
3.9
43.6
.7
Collective farmers_______________
56.1
15.8
48.4
.6
58.2
24.4
56.5
11.3
Nonagricultural branches------
21.5
.1
_
2
________
________
Agricultural branches_________
56.7
15.7
48.4
.6
56.9
242
565
11.3
Private independent sector________
38.0
_______-
71.4
________
32.4
________
68.9
.2
Independent artisans--__________
24.1
________
_______
________
23.1
________
333
________
Individual peasants_____________
65.2
-_______
71.4
________
62.0
________
683
________
Private agricultural subsidiary
sector_______
90.7
7.8
________
________
95.8
7.4
85.5
27.9
Members of families of work-
ersandemployees___________
84.4
3.1
________
________
93.7
4.9
45.8
2.0
Members of families of collee-
tive farmers_________________
95.4
4.7
____-___
___--___
00.0
2.6
93.5
19.9
population outside the labor force---
58.3
50.7
49.1
99.2
71.1
24.2
78.7
61.7
De endents_______________________
61.4
43.9
49.1
~
99.2
89.2
17.7
93.1
30.9
Able-bodied students--------------
_______
--------
66.7
3.4
--------
Stipendiaries----------------------
45.1
.7
--------
--------
1.2
________
____
Pensioners_________________________
56.1
8.0
________
__--____
28.4
1.8
68.2
30.1
Other_____________________________
69.9
.1
---_____
--------
00.0
.1
62.1
.7
Source: Based on table V-A-1, Annual Economic Indicators for the U.S.S.R., Joint Economic Commit-
tee of the U.S. Congress, Washington, 1964, pp. 44-45. Underaged comprise both males and females 12 to 15
of of age. The able-bodied group includes males 16 to 59 years of age and females 16 to 64 years of age.
be s group relates to males 60 years of age and over and females 65 years of age and over.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 @Q[QI003 01-3
Approved Foo it ~spc;gA/ i(ql~ F&V~?FZ
Not in the
labor force
10__,0_00____5_._b_00 6 5.000
private subside.
iary econovgr
linployod in the
socialized and
private inde-
o
ppeendaqnt sect
t.ncui'%A 41.. m', I,t4J4
FiauRE VII-1.-U.S.S.R. population and employment pyramids in 1959
[In thousands by 5-year age groups]
0to4
ato9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
Male population_____________________ 12,147
11,191
7,941
5,116
18, 877
8, 366
8,138
4
4, 375
Male employment___________________ _______
Participation rate (percent)______
906
11
848
10
7,649
63
88
1
35
94
273
95
13
1
07
,452
,
Female population__________________
,
--
6,066
1
8,
7,3
81
8
8,
5
Female employment_________________ _______
Participation rate (percent)---.-- ________
-
________
-
________
63
81
80
78
77
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
80 to 64
65 to 09
70 to 74
75 to 79
Male population--------------------- 3,998
764
3
4,706
342
4
4,010
3,594
2,906
2,395
2,348
1,845
1,751
942
1,226
454
797
209
26
,
Male employment-------------------
Participation rate (percent) ------ 94
410
6
,
92
7
558
90
437
6
82
793
5
79
4,349
54
3,289
37
2,631
1,973
,
Female population__________________
Female employment_________________ 4,881
,
5,665
,
4,445
,
3,161
2,069
48
1,172
35
552
21
234
12
Participation rate (percent)-_____ 76
75
69
55
Source: Population pyramid: The five-year age groups from 20 to 69 years of age come directly from
Itogi * * * 1959 goda: S.S.S.R., op. cit., p. 70. The division of each of the 0- to 9- 10- to 19-, and 70- to 79-year
age groups into two 5-year age groups was done on the basis of proportions calculated from Brackett op.
cit., pp. 555-556. Employment pyramid: This was estimated from census data, Itopi * * * 1959: S.S..R.,
op. cit., pp. 132-145 and 181-170, giving the age distribution by sex of the pooppullatiioon99employe data the
socialized and private independent sector, including those in the military,
employment in the private subsidiary sector by sex and broad age groups. A detailed explanation of how
the estimates were made may be found in Norton T. Dodge, Women in the Soviet Economy: Their Role In
Economic, Scientific and Technical Development, app. III, an unpublished monograph prepared for the
National Science Foundation.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Apprved FC$ ?ase 2 0024/02/04 : C A RDOR 7BTHE 004U 6R 000100340001-3
P"~pI
3
,
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MEN,
i 48`8
O
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved Forpfq 2%1(41N~l&-?R~67RO~4346R0001R0034Q~(b0~1-3
TABLE VII-4.-Distribution and percentage of women collective farmers employed
primarily in physical labor in agriculture, by occupation, Jan. 15, 1959
Number
Occupation
Percentage
female
Total
Female
Total employed in physical labor-----------------------
28, 728, 425
17, 420,143
60.1
Administrative and supervisory personnel:
Heads of livestock and poultry sub-farms-----------------
134, 983
20, 227
15.0
Brigadiers of field brigades -------,------------------------
232,772
19,295
8.3
Brigadiers of livestock brigades---------------------------
31,697
4,043
12.8
Other brigadiers------------------------------------------
195,940
10,256
5.2
Skilled workers and junior supervisory personnel:
Bookkeepers-------- -----------------------------------
23,443
4,363
18.6
Tractor and combine drivers------------------------------
1,259,261
9,571
.8
Implement handlers and workers on agricultural me-
chincry -------------------------------------------------
124,751
1,774
1.4
Field-team leaders----------------------------------------
149,666
130,664
87.3
Specialized agricultural workers:
Workers in plant breeding and feed production -----------
524,606
274,167
71.3
Cattle farm workers--------------------------------------
701,449
423,786
60.4
Milking personnel----------------------------------------
1,150, 363
1,136, 923
98. 6
Stablemen and grooms------------------------------------
716,017
50,708
7.1
Swineherds-----------------------------------------------
420,541
,
381,145
90.6
Herdsmen, drovers, and shepherds------------------------
550
667
96,356
17.5
Other livestock workers-----------------------------------
113,874
23,920
21.0
Poultry workers------------------------------------------
116,557
108,886
93.4
Beekeepers----------------------------------------------
62,603
9,497
15.2
Orchard and vineyard workers----------------------------
50,854
20,887
41.1
Vegetable and melon growers-----------------------------
56,539
45,546
80.6
Irrigators-------------------------------------------------
7,975
861
10.8
Nonspecialized agricultural workers---------------------------
21, 991, 868
14, 523,178
66.0
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 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
102 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 103
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
104 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 105
.0.-+ 0o
SE2
00 00
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914
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 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
106 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE VII-7.-Level of education of the employed population, by socioeconomic
group and sex, in 1959
[Number per thousand]
Higher, in-
complete
higher, see-
ondary sr-
clalized edu-
cation
General
secondary
education
Incomplete
secondary
education
Primary and
incomplete
secondary
education
Less than
4-year
education
Male
Fe-
Male
Fe-
Male
Fe-
Male
Fe-
Male
Fe-
male
male
male
male
male
Urban and rural population:
All social groups---------
103
118
60
68
271
247
386
272
180
297
Workers_________________
23
16
56
63
314
298
459
353
148
270
Emplo ees_____
__________
Coll
ti
f
508
14
476
6
124
29
161
227
2
284
121
69
20
10
ec
ve
armers________
Urban population:
18
18
174
413
308
326
494
All social groups---------
153
184
82
109
302
304
362
243
101
160
Workers_________________
27
19
67
76
836
318
449
350
121
237
Employees_______________
C
l
533
459
129
169
210
290
110
71
18
11
o
lective farmers________
Rural population:
28
10
88
23
221
160
420
292
293
515
All social groups ---------
56
60
40
34
241
200
408
295
255
411
Workers_________________
14
9
36
34
270
253
480
361
1200
343
Employees_______________
450
523
113
139
265
265
146
64
26
8
Collective farmers________
13
6
29
18
218
174
412
309
328
493
Doctoral degree:
Total number --------------------------------------
8, 277
10,530
11,945
11,300
Number of women_________________________________
600
1,100
1
100
1
200
Percent women____________________________________
7
10
,
9
11
:
Candidate degree:
Total number --------------------------------------
45,530
93,999
98,262
102,500
Number of women_________________________________
11,400
27,200
28,800
29, 700
Percent women------------------------------------
25
29
29
29
Sources: Zhenshchiny f doff v SSSR, Moscow, 1963, p. 129; Vyashee obrazovanie v SSSR, Moscow, 1961,
p. 205; and Narodnoe khoziafatvo SSSR v 1962 gods, Moscow, 1963, p. 582.
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 Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 107
TABLE VII-9.-Women enrolled in secondary specialized educational institutions
(excluding correspondence students), by field, at the beginning of the academic
year
[NA indicates data not available]
Number in thousands
Percentage
Percent women of total enrollment by fields
Year
of total en-
Total
Women
rollment
Indus-
Agricul-
Socio-
Health I
Educe-
trial i
tural
economic
tion 1
1027 -----------
189.4
72.0
37.6
9.5
15.4
36.3
89.3
53.5
1930___________
(686.8)
(227.7)
38.8
25.8
31.0
48.2
87.3
51.9
1932 -----------
723.7
(323.5)
44.7
28.5
33.5
51.9
85.6
54.1
1933 -----------
588.9
(258.5)
43.9
30.1
30.1
54.5
80.7
64.6
1934___________
671.5
(296.1)
44.1
29.6
31.6
64.6
79.7
55.2
1035 -----------
712.9
(306.5)
43.0
26.0
30.2
52.3
76.3
54.3
1936 -----------
768.9
(369.1)
46.7
26.8
29.3
51.1
79.9
56.9
1937 -----------
862.5
(445.1)
51.6
25.9
28.7
60.2
83.3
57.0
1040 -----------
819.6
447.8
64.6
32.0
37.0
60.0
83.0
60.0
1945 -----------
907.0
627.2
69.1
50. 0
66.0
79.0
93.0
83.0
1950 -----------
1,116.9
598.2
53.6
35.0
41.0
73.0
86.0
77.0
1955----
1,673.9
916.9
54.8
42.0
43.0
82.0
89.0
80.0
1956----
1,660.7
(863.7)
52.0
39.0
44.0
NA
89.0
78.0
1057---------
1,540.2
(730.1)
48.0
37.0
38.0
NA
86.0
79.0
1958 -----------
1,427.9
(672.1)
47.0
34.0
38.0
NA
84.0
76.0
1959________.
_-
1,384,7
(637.0)
46.0
33.0
38.0
NA
83.0
77.0
1960 ---
___
1,461.1
(
686.7)
47.0
33.0
38.0
75.0
84.0
76.0
1961___________
1,634.0
784.3
48.0
33.0
38.0
74.0
85.0
77.0
1963----
2,010.0
(
.
98
1983 ___
2,010.0
4
(
9)
49.0
34.0
38.0
NA
87.0
80.0
1964___
NA
NA
49.0
34.0
37.0
NA
87.0
80.0
I The industrial field is used here to signify the related fields of industry, construction, transport, and
communications. Similarly, the health field includes physical culture and sport; education, the fields of art
and cinematography.
Sources: Percentages for 1027, 1940, 1945 1950 1955, 1958-61-Srednee ~s~etslat'noe obrazovanie v SSSR,
Moscow 1982, p. 92. 1030, 1932-37 and 195F3-57-beWitt, Education and P'rofessfonal Employment in the
U.S.S.R., National Acienco Foundation, Washinggton,1961, p. 613; the totals are from Kul'turnos stroftei'atvo
Moscow, 1956, p. 201, and Srednee opetsfat'noe ebrazovanfe v SSSR Moscow, 1062, p. 69. All 1062 data are
from Narodnoe khozfafatvo SSSR v 1962 godu, Moscow, 1963, p. 573. 'Data for 1083 are derived from Narodnoe
khozfaistvo SSSR, v 1968 godu, Moscow, 1965, pp. 566 and 578. 1964 data are from Vestnik statistikt, No. 2,
1985, p. 95.
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108 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TA13LE VII-10.-Number and percent of women among day and evening students
enrolled in Soviet higher educational institutions, by field, at the beginning of the
academic year 1926-87, 1940, 1950, 1955-61
[NA indicates data not available]
End of year
Thousands
All
Engineer-
ing-
Agricul-
Socio-
Medicine
Educa-
tional-
fields
industrial
tural
economic
cultural
Total
Women
1926___________
168.0
(51.9)
30.9
7.2
16.3
16.5
52.0
48.0
1927___________
168.5
(48.0)
28.5
13.4
17.4
21.1
52.0
48.7
1928--------- __
176.6
(51.4)
29.1
14.3
18.4
27.4
54.0
49.0
1929 -----------
204.2
(59.6)
29.2
15.6
20.4
19.4
56.0
46.7
1930 -----------
287.9
(81.5)
28.3
15.5
25.4
24.8
58.0
44.4
1931 -----------
405.9
(125.0)
30.8
17.7
28.1
29.8
64.7
46.9
1932___________
504.4
(168.0)
33.3
19.8
30.6
34.9
71.4
49.3
1933 -----------
458.3
(167.3)
36.5
22.4
32.1
36.0
75.1
50.2
1934___________
527.3
(200.4)
38.0
23.3
31.8
39.0
71.2
48.4
1935-
563.5
(198.5)
39.5
25.6
30.2
40.1
69.0
46.8
1936 -----------
542.0
(222.2)
41.0
26.6
29.3
39.7
68.8
47.4
1937 -----------
547.2
(236.9)
43.3
28.0
30.2
41.3
67.5
48.2
1940___-______
_
--------
585.0
(330.3)
58.0
40.3
46.1
63.6
74.1
66.5
19451
-
539.2
(323.5)
77.0
60.0
79.0
77.0
90.0
84.0
1950__
845.1
(448.7)
53.1
30.3
39.3
57.0
64.9
71.9
1955__
1,227.9
(642.2)
52.3
35.4
39.3
67.0
69.1
72.1
1956___________
1,277.9
(651.7)
51.0
36.0
39.0
NA
69.0
70.0
1957 -----------
1,320.3
(646.9)
49.0
33.0
34.0
NA
65.0
66.0
1958___________
1,332.9
(626.5)
47.0
32.0
31.0
NA
62.0
65.0
1959 -----------
1,341.6
(603.7)
45.0
31.0
28.0
NA
59.0
63.0
1960___________
1,400.4
(602.2)
43.0
30.0
27.0
149.0
56.0
63.0
1961 -----------
1,511.0
(634.6)
42.0
28.0
26.0
NA
55.0
62.0
1962___________
1,661.0
(697.6)
42.0
28.0
26.0
NA
54.0
62.0
1963 -----------
1,822.0
(783.5)
43.0
29.0
25.0
NA
54.0
63.0
1964 -----------
NA
NA
43.0
29.0
25.0
NA
52.0
64.0
I Percentages for all fields in 1945 and for the socioeconomic held in 1960 refer to the total enrollment in
higher educational institutions, including correspondence students. The percentage of women by field
in 1960 Is identical for regular and total enrollment. In 1940,1960, and 1955, years in which both sets of data
are available, they differ (when rounded) only in the educational-cultural Held. The percentage of women in
total enrollment in these years is given as 66, 71, and 71 percent, respectively, in Vyashee obrazovanie v
SSSR, Moscow, 1961, p. 86. It is not likely, therefore, that the 1045 percentages the socioeconomic
percentage for 1960 are seriously inconsistent with the rest of the table.
Sources: Through 1956, except 1945, De Witt, op. cit., p. 654; 1956-58, Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR v 1959
godu, Moscow, 1960, p. 751; and 1959-61 Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR v 1981 godu, Moscow, 1962, p. 899.
1945 and the socioeconomic field in 1960, f'ysshee obrazovanie v SSSR Moscow, 1981 p. 86. Totals for men
and women or for women alone are based on Zhenshchina v SSSi'R Moscow, 1957, p. 121; Kul'turnoe
stroitel'stvo, Moscow, 1956, pp. 201-202; i'yashee obrazovanie v SSSR, Moscow, 1961, p. 80; and Narodnoe
khoziaistvo SSSR, v 1961 godu, Moscow, 1962, p. 888. All 1982 data'are from Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR
v 1962 godu, Moscow, 1963,pp. 572-573. Data for 1963 are derived from Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR v 1963godu,
Moscow, 1965, pp. 566 and 578. 1964 data are from Vest elk statistiki, No. 2, 1965, p. 95.
Approved For Release 2004/02/04: CIA-RDP67B00446R000100340001-3
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