OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES MONTHLY REPORT MAY 1948

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP67-00059A000300160047-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 26, 2004
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: May 1, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
MONTHLY REPORT
MAY 1948
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MEMORANDUMFOR THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL IJ TELUGENCE
Subject: ORE Status Report: May 1948
I. THE CIA INTElL, ,_ agZ k LAN
--
There has been no important change in the Intelligence
Plan during May. Annex "C" below, showing the status of Staff
Intelllgence,inncludes such changes as were made during the month.
IY. INTELLIGENCE MOM MUM
(
1. Current Intelligence
During May, the usual report of the CIA Series and the
usual Daily Summaries were published. With the issue of 21 May,
the Weekly Summary was changed In format, classification, and
dissemination.
a. The new Weekly, with a SECRET classification,
deals informally with developments in the world situation
during the preceding week; the Summary now carries an
opening review and analysis, highlighting general trends
and most important developments of the past week; spe-
cific review of the world situation Is covered by brief
items within an area-country breakdown; and, if circum-
stances demand, an Appendix will serve for digests of
studies, estimates, situation reports, and articles pre-
pared by ORE or outside agencies.
4. Wider dissemination is permitted by the change
in classification. Additional copies are being distributed
to former recipients, and distribution has been broadened
to include agencies which were not recipients of the former
TOP SECRET Weekly.
The new Weekly permits greater continuity for
each topic treated since the most important items from
each region are carried instead of only the few most
important items selected on a world-wide basis. In some
cases, items in the old Weekly would be from one or two
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regions and items from other regions would appear only
occasionally. Now all regions tend to receive more
uniform coverage. A list of the various topics covering
the Weekly Summary during May is attached as Annex "A".
2. Basic Inteftence
Three non-IAC agencies - interior, Commerce, and
Agriculture -- have estimated the augmentation of production
facilities that they will need in order to participate in the NIS
program. The estimate of the Department of Agriculture is
still under negotiation, but those of the other two Departments
were acceptable as submitted.
A section on Propaganda has been added to the NIS in
order to meet the requirements of those officials of the U.S.
Government engaged in anni a for psychological warfare.fl
Standard
operating procedures have been fixed with the Board on Geo-
graphic Names for the execution of geographic name research
by that organization.
The list of NIS priorities is to be resubmitted to the
joint Chiefs of Staff for revision and recasting in terms of the
NIS areas instead of the JANIS areas as soon as the IAC has
taken final action on the NIS program. The IAC agencies have
been requested to alert their JCS representatives so as to obtain
prompt action on the revision.
The status of the basic intelligence studies now under
way is shown in Annex "B".
3. Staff Intelligence
During May, four Special Estimates of the ORE series,
two Situation Reports, and one report of the "M" series were
published. A list of the scheduled and non-scheduled reports
and estimates published or in process during May is attached
as Annex "C".
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A discussion of problems related, to the interdepart-
mental coordination of staff Intelligence is included in section
V 2a below.
4. Iantelli ence presentations
During May, one presentation, thirty-four interrogation,
and seven briefings were conducted. The presentation and inter-
rogations were attended by sixty-rinne representatives of the
Department of State, seventeen from the Army, thirty from the
Navy, and thirteen from the Air Force, A list of oral and graphic
presentations is attached as Annex i"I)".
During May, only one outgoing attache from the Army
was briefed and he carne to CIA only after his presence was
requested specifically by the CIA regional branch concerned.
It would appear from the decline in the briefings of Army person-
nel that the Army has abandoned the practice of routing their
outgoing personnel through CIA. This matter will be taken up
with the Intelligence Division of the Army.
5. Scientific Int
The production of scientific Intelligence is continuing
on a modest basis with most effort to date directed toward the
establishment of basic working relationships with other Govern-
mental orgaations interested in scientific research. The
exact role that ORE, is to play In the production of scientific
Intelligence will not be fully determined until those relationships
have been established.
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With the exception of the Office of Operations, which is
cooperating closely in the matter of requirements, ORE is in no
position to exert any substantial influence on the flow of Information
from the various agencies charged with collecting intellige ice
information. No reorganisation of the Office of Collection and
Dissemination can improve this aspect of the collection system
since the actual collection priorities are still being set by the
individual collecting agencies when they Issue the ultimate
collection directive to the field. This means that regardless of
the requirements for intelligence information submitted and re-
gardless of the urgency with which they are viewed by this office,
the information will be collected (if at all) In accordance with
the priority assigned by the collecting agency. This, in effect,
places the collecting agency in the position of deciding the impor-
tance of the Special Estimate or other report for which the Infor-
mation Is needed. At the same time this office Is held respohsible
for the timeliness and adequacy of the intelligence that it produces
for the National Security Council and other consumers. The pro..
sent collection system places a limitation on the ability of this
office as well as CIA as a whole to fulfill its assigned responsi-
bilities.
The new system for formulating requirements for intelw
ligence information is improving both the quantity and the quality
of the requirements originating in this office. A resume of the
requirements submitted to OCI} is attached as Annex '"F".
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IV. ADEQUACY OF INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION
AND INTELLIGENCE
I. R.er1~from the Field
During May, the Department of State and the Army con-
tinued to supply the largest volume of written and cabled reports
from all areas. The total volume of intelligence documents and
cables handled by the .various components of ORE during the
:month was as follows:
Eastern Europe/USSR Branch 6, 574
Western European Branch 6,326
Near East/Africa Branch 4, 309
Northern Branch 4.080
Far East/ Pacific Branch 3,839
Latin America 3 ~ 573
Scientific Branch L 461
Armed Forces Panel 8
International Organizations Panel 2,135
Transportation Panel 2,003
There was no particular change in the volume or notice-
able improvement in the general quality of the information re-
ceived during May. Attention is invited particularly to the small
volume of information received by the Scientific Branch.
2. Intelligence Coverage b CIA
Intelligence produced by this office continues to fall
short of the desired maximum volume. Since the production of
Current Intelligence must receive. priority attention, it is still
necessary to rely on Current Intelligence reports to cover some
situations that should also be covered by Staff Intelligence Es-
timates but for which there is not sufficient research personnel
available. It is hoped that the National Intelligence produced will
more nearly approximate the actual needs of the makers of
Natiohal Policy as this office increases its strength and acquires
additional experience in planning and producing Staff Intelligence.
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The quality of the Estimates produced is still too variable to be
ideal . This office is still encountering difficulty, in finding
the proper personnel for the high-level positions that most di.
rectly?affect the quality of the analysis contained in Estimates.
MOT it resume of the ORE personnel situation see Atuaex "G". j
3. ~ce Cover o~ ,other IAC A?eu~ies
From time to time Estimates made by other :LAC agencies
are discovered, copies of which had not been routed to this a ice.
It would appear, therefore, that we are not receiving uniform
4lstribution of estimates Prepared by the other agencies. Since
we cannot be sure of havtW all Intelligence produced, no
firm analysis can be made of the adequacy of he Intelftence
emerage by other ZA,C agencies. From the material n a3leble,
however, there appears to have been no important change during
may in the adequacy of such coverage.
The question of procuring IAC Estimates will be taken
up with the Office of Collection and Dissemination.
V. EFFORTS TO FACILITATE INPELb ENCE
_ CN AND - PRODUCTION
1. Cen nnflnn ~nw LIp ;
During May, normal l#alsen was maintained with other
components of CIA.
2. 461"411 md--- JQftz IM
es
& p s, caeaeurren?~~
During three concurrences after revision and fives cases cat no with comments
com-
ment by other IAC agencies on Special Estimates prepared by
CYA.
A check indicates that about one-fourth of the Special
Estimates published by this office have had dissents registered
against them. With two exceptions, only a single agency has
dissented on any one paper. In the case of the two exceptions,
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only two dissents were registered. The Department of State has
been the most frequent dissenter. In general, it would be hard to
show that the dissents represent a direct and unavoidable disagree-
ment with a major conclusion of the paper. It is difficult to see
how such dissents could be helpful to a person using the Estimates
for official purposes. Sample extracts from IAC dissents are given
below:
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,(2) RE 9-48. "Cuban Political Trends" STATE.
...the -somewhat alarming tone of the summary
is not justified."
(3) ORE 8-48. "Peron and the Argentine Congresu
sional Elections - `"STATE.. The paper leaves
out an analysis of the Peronista party which is
"central to such a study." (Whatever this esti-
mate leaves out, its conclusion was that Peron
would continue to cooperate with the US after
the elections. This conclusion is not denied
in the dissent.)
(4) ORE 6-48. "Consequences of Communist Acces-
sion to Power in Italy by Legal Means
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(5) ORE 69. "Possible Consequences of Communist
Control of Greece- In the Absence of US Counteraction."
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(6) ME 65. "The Venezuelan Elections of 14
December 194?."
(8) ORE 63. "The Current Situation in French North
Africa." STATE. Dissents because it believes
that the "cumulative effect" of the paper Its to
overemphasize Communist strength.
(9) ORE 22-48. ""Possibility of Direct Soviet Milita
Action during 1948."
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b. Working Level Liaison
Normal working-level liaison was maintained during
May with all IAC agencies.
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Assistant Director
Reports and Estimates
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